The New Year is right around the corner, and usually by now most of the top free agents have picked new teams. Clubs like to get their major offseason business out of the way early. Even with the tippy top free agents off the board, several other quality players remain unsigned. Scott Kazmir, Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Yoenis Cespedes, Wei-Yin Chen, Chris Davis, Howie Kendrick … guys like that come to mind.
In most years only one or two solidly above-average free agents would remain available by time the holidays rolled around, and usually one of ’em would be a big name Scott Boras client, but that’s not the case this year. Ken Rosenthal did a great job the other day explaining why so many quality free agents are still on the board. It’s not just one thing. It’s a combination of things.
The Yankees have been unwilling to spend this offseason, at least spend big on long-term contracts, which is why they’ve sat out free agency to date. I don’t expect that to change, especially not the long-term contract thing because that’ll impact the luxury tax going forward, and Hal Steinbrenner desperately wants to get under the threshold at some point soon. He’s made it pretty clear.
I do think the Yankees would be open to a pricey one-year contract under the right circumstances, however. Especially if there’s a chance the player will be a qualifying offer candidate next offseason. They would have to pay a little extra luxury tax in 2016 but would clear the salary next winter, still giving them a chance to get under the luxury tax threshold when some big contracts begin to expire. And the longer these top free agents go without choosing a team, the more likely it is one of ’em will take a one-year contract.
That said, finding a fit won’t be easy. The Yankees are set at all eight defensive positions — a Brett Gardner trade would open up left field, obviously — and there are no enticing free agent relievers. That leaves the rotation. There are some pretty damn good starters out there, but Yankee Stadium and the AL East is not the place a pitcher goes if he’s backed into a one-year contract. The ballpark is more likely to hurt a pitcher’s value than help it.
Think about it. You’re a free agent starting pitcher willing to take a one-year contract because you didn’t get a big offer this winter and want to try your luck again next offseason, in a miserable free agent class. Where are you signing? With the Yankees to play your home games in Yankee Stadium, plus play a bunch of other intradivision games in hitter friendly parts? Or with, say, the Dodgers in spacious Dodger Stadium in the pitcher friendly NL West? Exactly.
The longer all these free agents go unsigned, the better the odds the Yankees can land a quality player on a favorable contract. And for them, a favorable contract is probably a one-year deal. At the same time, the Yankees aren’t going to sign a player simply for the sake of signing a player. The player has to fit their roster, and right now their only openings are on the pitching staff. With no high-end relievers available, that leaves starters, who probably aren’t keen on coming to Yankee Stadium.
So, long story short, I guess we should consider this a developing situation. I have a hard time believing players as good as Upton and Gordon and Davis and all the others will go unsigned for long, not with so much money in the game and so many teams projected to be in the postseason hunt. There might be a mad rush of signings in early-January, after the holidays. I don’t expect the Yankees to find some kind of free agent bargain next month, but, right now, the odds of it happening are much greater than they were at the outset of the offseason.
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