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Saturday Links: Search for Pitching, Martinez, Giese, Daley

February 24, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Boone, Cashman, and Tim Naehring. (Presswire)

The Yankees continue their Grapefruit League season this afternoon with a road game against the Pirates, but, sadly, it will not be televised. Tomorrow’s game will be televised, however, so that’s cool. Anyway, here are some links to check out on the first weekend with baseball in 2018.

Yankees still looking for pitching

Not surprisingly, Brian Cashman confirmed earlier this week that the Yankees remain in the market for pitching. They addressed their infield with the Brandon Drury trade — they did that without spending any finite luxury tax plan dollars — so the only item left on the offseason shopping list is pitching depth. Here’s what Cashman said, via Bryan Hoch:

“We are trying to attack places that are potential weaknesses or are weaknesses,” Cashman said. “I think our pitching side is pretty strong and obviously we want it to stay healthy, but we will evaluate the pitching available regardless. It’s been our stated goal to add a starter. There’s a reason we haven’t done it and it isn’t because we don’t have an interest.”

The Yankees still have $22M to spend under the luxury tax threshold, which is a nice chunk of change even when you remove the $10M they’re said to be setting aside for midseason additions. I feel like, with each passing day, it is more and more likely the Yankees will jump in to sign either Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn. It would cost two draft picks and $1M in international bonus money to sign either guy, but at some point it’ll make sense to jump in. Each day we’re inching closer to that point.

Martinez cleared to sign

Cuban outfielder Julio Pablo Martinez has been cleared to sign with MLB teams effective March 6th, reports Ben Badler. Martinez defected in November and Badler says the Yankees are among the favorites to sign him. The Rangers and Marlins are also in the mix. Here’s a quick little scouting report from Badler:

While Martinez’s first assignment will depend on several factors, his talent level is commensurate with a player in high Class A or Double-A. At around 5-foot-10, 180 pounds, Martinez has a good combination of power and speed from the left side. He batted .333/.469/.498 in 264 plate appearances during his final season in Cuba, with 52 walks, 30 strikeouts and 24 stolen bases in 29 attempts.

The Yankees have spent most of their $3.5M in leftover Shohei Ohtani money — most of that went to Raimfer Salinas and Antonio Cabello — and Badler says it’s possible the 21-year-old Martinez will wait until the 2018-19 international signing period begins on July 2nd to sign. The Rangers, for what it’s worth, traded for some international bonus money earlier this week, and Jesse Sanchez calls them the favorites to sign Martinez. Sounds like they’re going to make a run at him during the current signing period, while the Yankees (and Marlins) are cash-strapped.

Promotions for Giese, Daley

The Yankees have promoted assistant pro scouting director Dan Giese to pro scouting director, reports Brendan Kuty. Kevin Reese, the former pro scouting director, was promoted to senior director of player development back in November. He now oversees the farm system. Also, Matt Daley was promoted to assistant pro scouting director to replace Giese. Both Giese and Daley pitched briefly for the Yankees before joining the team as scouts. They’ve both gradually worked their way up the ladder.

A few weeks ago the Yankees hired former Marlins executive Marc DelPiano for a pro scouting role, and I thought maybe he’d replace Reese, but nope. It’s Giese. The Yankees tend to promote from within for front office jobs and that is exactly what happened here. I’m guessing DelPiano is fairly high up in the pro scouting chain of command given his resume though. The pro scouting department, which didn’t even exist until 2005, is tasked with keeping tabs on players in MLB and the minors. The department helped dig up Didi Gregorius and Chad Green, among many others.

In appreciation of a career minor leaguer fulfilling his MLB dream

February 22, 2018 by Steven Tydings Leave a Comment

When the Yankees announced Aaron Boone’s coaching staff a few weeks ago, there were no surprises. Larry Rothschild back. Marcus Thames promoted. Even newcomers like Phil Nevin or Josh Bard had been previously reported.

But what stood out to me was one of the returning coaches, Jason Brown. Last year, he was the bullpen catcher. This year, he’s promoted to catching coach, though that probably means some bullpen catching alongside Radley Haddad.

See, Brown isn’t a household name. He played parts of 12 seasons in the minor leagues after attending USC. He played 34 games in Triple A over five different stints with three different franchises, one of which was the Yankees.

But he never got a cup of coffee. By the time he joined the Yankees as a minor league free agent in 2005, he was 31 years old. While he would get invites to Spring Training, that came about mostly due to his status as a catcher in the high minors and the Yankees likely never truly considered bringing him up.

Face it, with a guy like Brown, the odds were stacked against him, even when he reached Triple A with New York. He was only the backup there, meaning he was a minimum of a two injuries from a promotion. Yet if there were two catchers who went down simultaneously, perhaps the Yankees would have gone outside the organization to fill the role instead of promote the minor league vet.

Still, Brown was the consummate professional and kept fighting for that chance to fulfill his dream. “The goal isn’t to see how long you can play in the minor leagues,” Brown told Mike Ashmore, “The goal for me is to get to the big leagues.”

I grew up not just a Yankees fan but also deeply invested in the mid-2000s Trenton Thunder, the closest professional baseball team to me. I’d show up to Waterfront Park when the gates opened and rush down to the right field line next to the Thunder dugout, hoping for an autograph and that brief chance to interact with the players.

Of course, I kept my eyes peeled for the top prospects, not to mention the occasional rehab appearance from a Bombers star. Robinson Cano. Joba Chamberlain. Ian Kennedy. Phil Hughes. All those guys had stays in Trenton and gave me the chance to watch them up close, falling in love with the game.

However, it wasn’t just the top guys that kept me coming back. You don’t go to a minor league park consistently just to watch a few guys who are going to leave if they play well enough. You also embrace the guys who are seemingly there for the long haul, the players who get the briefest mention from Baseball America and not the large write-up.

And that’s where I was first introduced to Brown. He was hard to miss. I remember him shaking hands with fans at the gate on Opening Day. I’ll never forget the 3-6 times he went over and signed for me, probably recognizing me and wondering why the same kid keeps wanting his autograph (Side note: Jason Jones, a Thunder pitcher, literally asked this question to me once the third or fourth time I asked for his autograph.) But Brown also just put in his work day after day and even when at-bats weren’t plentiful, he still clearly had a presence on the team.

“He calls a great game,” Hughes said of Brown to Ashmore. “It always seems like we’re on the same page. He’s got a lot of experience in this game, and he knows a lot of the veteran hitters and knows what he wants to do out there. It’s always good when I get to throw to him.”

Brown never achieved his dream as a player, unlike Boone, unlike Bard. But he’s in the Bronx, already moving up in the coaching ranks ever so slightly. And his work as a veteran mentor is evident on this team with his former catching mate P.J. Pilittere gets his first taste of the majors as the assistant hitting coach.

We may never fully know the effects of Brown as a catching coach and what he help he’s able to provide the players. However, just to see him finally on a major league field shows that the minor league struggle was at least somewhat worth it for Brown.

Saturday Links: Judge, Prospects, Beltran, A-Rod, Spring BP

February 10, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

In case you missed it yesterday, I posted my annual Top 30 Prospects list. Over 10,000 words of prospect goodness. Don’t miss it. Here are some other links to check out on the penultimate Saturday without baseball until November.

Judge tops graduated prospects list

Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen put together a graduated prospects list earlier this week, which is essentially a ranking of players who lost their prospect eligibility this year. The MLB rookie limits are 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 days of service time outside September. Four Yankees made the list. Here are their rankings:

1. Aaron Judge (80 Present Value, 80 Future Value)
18. Jordan Montgomery (50 PV, 55 FV)
21. Chad Green (50 PV, 55 FV)
28. Clint Frazier (45 PV, 50 FV)

Green technically lost his rookie eligibility in 2016, though within the write-up McDaniel and Longenhagen say they included Green because he still had an “evolving” role. Also, they only ranked the 46 players they consider to have 50 FV or better, so Tyler Wade didn’t make it. *shakes fist*

Anyway, those grades are on the 20-80 scouting scale, so 50 is average and 80 is top of the line. Judge is a star. We didn’t need a 20-80 grade to know that. Cody Bellinger is the only other player on the list with even a 70 FV. The 80 FV essentially means McDaniel and Longenhagen project Judge to continue being this damn good going forward. Sign me the hell up.

Yankees offered Beltran front office job

In a recent episode of the R2C2 podcast, Carlos Beltran confirmed the Yankees offered him a position in the organization after naming Aaron Boone their new manager. Pete Caldera says it was a special assistant/special advisor role. Beltran declined because he wants to take a year off and spend time with his family. He’s been playing professional baseball since 1995. Can’t say I blame him for wanting to take a break.

The Yankees hired Hideki Matsui as a special advisor shortly after he retired — his official title is special advisor to the general manager — and his duties include working his prospects, among other things. Matsui and Beltran are similar. They’re both very well respected, they went out of their way to work with young players during their playing careers, and they have a lot of knowledge to share. Latin American players look up to Beltran. He has a lot to offer an organization. I imagine the Yankees will welcome him with open arms whenever he wants to get back into baseball.

Hal talking to A-Rod about role with Yankees

Grandy and A-Rod, together again. (Harry How/Getty)

According to Brendan Kuty, Hal Steinbrenner has spoken to Alex Rodriguez about his role with the Yankees going forward. Hal said the talks have been “very positive,” but he wants to keep them “private” for now. After being released in August 2016, A-Rod worked for the Yankees as a special advisor through the end of his player contract this season. He worked with their young players and things like that.

Alex has an awful lot going on right now between his new ESPN Sunday Night Baseball gig and postseason coverage with FOX, plus all the jet-setting with Jennifer Lopez. It may seem A-Rod won’t have enough time for the Yankees, but man, he loves baseball, and I think he wants to remain in the game in some capacity, beyond broadcasting. Another special advisor role to work with prospects in Tampa a few times a year makes too much sense not to happen.

Yankees will let fans watch batting practice this spring

Fans will get to see the Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton batting practice show this spring. Earlier this week the Yankees announced they will open the gates at George M. Steinbrenner Field three hours prior to first pitch this spring, one hour earlier than usual. That will give fans enough time to see the home team take batting practice. Here is the announcement from the Steinbrenner Field website:

The much anticipated 2018 Yankees Spring Training just got a little bit better. Steinbrenner Field will officially be opening 3 hours before game time (e.g. 1:05 p.m. game time, gates open at 10:05 a.m. to the public) so fans can experience the Yankees batting-practice action. Fans, be prepared to see your favorite players like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton taking BP and remember to bring your glove in case you get lucky!

As someone who’s seen Judge and Stanton take batting practice a bunch of times, I assure you it is worth the price of admission. Effortless power. Both of them. They put on a show. Anyway, it’s unclear whether the Yankees will open the gates an hour earlier during he regular season as well. For now it is Spring Training only. I imagine there are some logistical issues to work out for the regular season (the ballpark has to be staffed, etc.), though maybe once or twice a homestand? That’d be cool.

Getting to know the new members of the Yankees’ coaching staff

February 5, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

At long last, the Yankees announced their new coaching staff earlier today. There were no surprises. Names leaked out throughout the offseason — Aaron Boone also confirmed a bunch of coaching hires at the Winter Meetings — but now they are official. Officially official.

Boone’s coaching staff includes three holdovers from the Joe Girardi years. Larry Rothschild is back as pitching coach and Mike Harkey is back as bullpen coach, and Marcus Thames has been promoted from assistant hitting coach to hitting coach. Rothschild has been with the Yankees since 2011 and Harkey is in his second stint with the team (2008-13, 2016-present).

Thames has been coaching with the Yankees since he retired as a player in 2013. He was hitting coach for High-A Tampa in 2013, Double-A Trenton in 2014, and Triple-A Scranton in 2015 before joining the big league staff as assistant hitting coach in 2016. We’re all familiar with Rothschild, Thames, and Harkey, right? Right. Here’s what you need to know about the new guys.

Bench Coach: Josh Bard

Background: Bard, who turns 40 at the end of Spring Training, was Boone’s teammate with the 2005 Indians. He played ten years in the big leagues as a journeyman catcher from 2002-11. Bard played in Triple-A with the Dodgers in 2012, and after the season he joined the club as a special assistant. He was in the front office from 2013-15 before joining the field staff as bullpen coach in 2016.

Boone says (video link): “I think he’s a superstar in our business. I just hope we can bring him in and keep him for a while. He’s going to impact people. He has a great relationship with the front office, he really has a grasp of the analytics. I think he’s going to make my job a lot easier by being able to translate certain things, whittle things down for me. Along with being really smart — and only 39 years old, he’ll be 40 I believe in Spring Training — he’s got a presence. There’s a confidence about him. And I think he’ll be able to walk out in that room, connect with a lot of different people, and give them the information.”

Why Bard? Bard’s existing relationship with Boone probably helped him get the job, though I don’t think this is a case of hiring the manager’s buddy. Not at all. I’m guessing Bard’s front office experience with the Dodgers, a big market team heavy into analytics like the Yankees, was very appealing to Boone and Brian Cashman. Communication is a big part of the job, and obviously the team feels good about Bard’s ability to take information, boil it down, and disseminate it.

First Base Coach/Outfield Instructor: Reggie Willits

Background: Willits made one of the best catches I’ve ever seen in person. He scaled the side wall in left field at the old Yankee Stadium to rob a foul ball. Full sprint — Willits was fast as hell — leap at the wall, reach over for the catch. It was amazing. Anyway, Willits played his entire big league career with the Angels (2006-11), and after his playing career ended, he coached high school ball for two years back home in Oklahoma before joining the Yankees as a minor league outfield and baserunning coordinator in 2015. He held that role until being added to Boone’s staff.

Boone says: Can’t find anything. Boone confirmed Willits would be the first base coach at the Winter Meetings, so he talked about him, but it seems no one bothered to publish any quotes. Womp womp.

Why Willits? The 36-year-old Willits — he’s ten months younger than CC Sabathia! — has been mentioned as a potential coaching candidate for a few years now, so he’s impressed the right people in the organization during his time as a minor league coordinator. Former farm system head Gary Denbo was a big fan. Keep in mind Willits worked with a lot of Yankees players in the minors (Aaron Judge, most notably), so he’s a familiar face to some.

Third Base Coach: Phil Nevin

Background: If nothing else, Nevin had the best big league career of anyone on the coaching staff, including Boone. He played 12 years in the show (1995-2006) and retired as a career .270/.343/.472 hitter with 208 homers. Once his playing career ended, Nevin spent some time broadcasting before getting into coaching. He managed an independent league team in 2009, the Tigers’ Double-A affiliate in 2010, the Tigers’ Triple-A affiliate from 2011-13, and the Diamondbacks’ Triple-A affiliate from 2014-16. Nevin served as the Giants third base coach last year. He’s interviewed for at least one big league managerial job over the years (Astros in 2014).

Boone says (video link): “Phil is more of an old school guy. A guy that’s actually gained a lot of experience after having an excellent career. He’s coached third base a lot, (he has experience) as a manager in Triple-A and Double-A, also last year with the San Francisco Giants. (Bard and Nevin) are two guys that bring two different things to the table, but I think it’s important to have different kinds of people on your staff.”

Why Nevin? Nevin and Boone grew up together and know each other well — “Aaron and I go back a little bit. I kind of grew up in the Boone house,” said Nevin during an MLB Network appearance a few weeks ago — which undoubtedly played a role in the hire. That said, Nevin has a ton of minor league managerial experience, so he’s worked with a lot of young players over the years, and the Yankees have a increasingly young roster. Also, having third base coaching experience helps, even if it is only one year’s worth.

Assistant Hitting Coach: P.J. Pilittere

Background: Pilittere has taken a long road to the big leagues. The Yankees drafted him in the 13rd round in 2004 and he played in the system from 2004-11. After retiring as a player, Pilittere remained with the Yankees as a hitting coach. He spent 2012 in the rookie Gulf Coast League, 2013 with Low-A Charleston, 2014 with High-A Tampa, 2015-16 with Double-A Trenton, and 2017 with Triple-A Scranton.

Boone says: Nothing yet.

Why Pilittere? Pilittere has worked with many young Yankees, including Judge, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Clint Frazier, and Tyler Wade, and they all love him. He’s an all-around great dude and is extremely popular within the organization. To me, this seems very much like a young coach doing a great job and rising up the ranks.

Quality Control Coach/Infield Instructor: Carlos Mendoza

Background: The 43-year-old Mendoza had two big league cups of coffee with the 1997 Mets and 2000 Rockies, and he also played in Mexico, Italy, and independent leagues before joining the Yankees as a minor league instructor in 2009. He’s held a variety of roles over the years, including managing the rookie Gulf Coast League squad and Low-A Charleston. Most recently, Mendoza was the team’s minor league infield coordinator. Mendoza will be in uniform and in the dugout during games.

Boone says (via Erik Boland): “A rising star in our industry.”

Why Mendoza? Like Willits, Mendoza has been mentioned as a big league coaching candidate for a few years now. He has experience working with the club’s young infielders, most notably Torres and Andujar, but also Wade, Thairo Estrada, and Greg Bird. Also, Mendoza is the only Spanish speaker on the coaching staff, so he’ll help communicate and relay information to guys like Sanchez, Torres, Andujar, and Aroldis Chapman in their first language.

* * *

In other field staff news, both Jason Brown and Radley Haddad will return as bullpen catchers and Brett Weber returns as the video replay guru. Their official titles: catching coach (Brown), coaching assistant/bullpen catcher (Haddad), and coaching assistant/instant replay coordinator (Weber). All holdovers from last season.

Aaron Boone and the recent history of rookie managers

January 4, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Aside from the Giancarlo Stanton trade, the biggest move the Yankees have made this offseason is replacing Joe Girardi with new manager Aaron Boone. Brian Cashman and the rest of the higher ups felt the team needed a fresh voice in the clubhouse, and a fresh voice they will get. This is Boone’s first managerial gig.

Hiring a manager with no prior managerial experience — Boone doesn’t even have any coaching experience, he’d been an analyst with ESPN since his playing career ended — is far from unprecedented. In fact, it is business as usual these days. Six teams changed managers this year. Five hired first-timers.

Mets: Mickey Callaway
Nationals: Dave Martinez
Phillies: Gabe Kapler
Red Sox: Alex Cora
Tigers: Rob Gardenhire
Yankees: Aaron Boone

Three of those teams made the postseason this past season and four of them can go into 2018 with a reasonable expectation of competing for a postseason spot, at worst. And yet, they hired rookie managers. The average MLB payroll was just north of $150M in 2017. Teams are putting their nine-figure rosters in the hands of inexperienced managers. Pretty wild.

Why are they doing this? Two reasons, I think. One, front offices are always looking for the next big thing. Hiring Joe Maddon or Terry Francona is the sexy move, but hiring the next Joe Maddon or Terry Francona is the real goal. And two, managers with no experience are essentially a clean slate. Front offices can mold them into the type of manager they want. I’m sure that applies to the Yankees and Boone to some degree.

Of course, hiring a no experience manager comes with a lot of risk. You simply have no idea what you’re going to get until the person is put in the position of being a manager. Everyone loved Matt Williams as a player and a coach, then, as soon as he became Nationals manager, he was a disaster. An experienced manager is a known commodity, and the team could help him improve on the things that got him fired from his previous managerial job.

Eighteen teams hired a rookie manager between the end of the 2011 season and the start of the 2017 season. That’s a six-year window and it does not include interim managers who were later hired full-time, like Mike Quade and Ryne Sandberg. They took over the Cubs and Phillies, respectively, as interim rookie managers at midseason and were hired full-time after the season. Those 18 teams gave the keys to a first year manager in the offseason.

My original plan was to look at those 18 teams and rookie managers to see how they performed and how the rookie manager’s tenured played out, and maybe a pattern would emerge or something. A pattern did emerge, for sure.

Combined actual winning percentage in final year under old manager: .468
Combined PECOTA projected winning percentage in final year under old manager: .513

Combined actual winning percentage in first year under rookie manager: .480
Combined PECOTA projected winning percentage in first year under rookie manager: .488

Here’s my spreadsheet. I used PECOTA projections to get an estimate of each team’s talent level because that’s kinda important. For all intents and purposes, the teams with rookie managers met their PECOTA projection. The difference between the actual .480 winning percentage and projected .488 winning percentage is roughly one win per 162 games, which is nothing.

In the previous year, those same teams under their old manager collectively unperformed their projected winning percentage by more than seven wins per 162 games. That’s why the managerial change was made, right? The team underperformed and the front office wanted to shake things up. Among our 18-team sample, eight underperformed their projection by at least ten wins and 15 underperformed their projection in general. The 2011 Cardinals were the only team to beat their projection by more than two wins. They beat it by five wins in Tony La Russa’s final season, and he retired after winning the World Series. He wasn’t fired.

The teams underperformed under their old manager for whatever reason. The 2014 Rangers were decimated by injuries under Ron Washington. The 2013 Cubs were picked apart at the trade deadline under Dale Sveum. The 2012 Rockies were so thin on the mound they went to a four-man rotation and used tandem starters under Walt Weiss. A team that underperformed replaced their manager, in this case with a rookie skipper, and met projections the next year. That was the pattern. Underperform with the old manager, meet expectations with the rookie. A few more observations.

1. Most rookie managers had a prior history with their team. Click on my spreadsheet and go down the list of rookie managers. Almost all of them had some prior connection to their new team. Mike Matheny played five years with the Cardinals before they hired him in 2012. Sveum was the Red Sox third base coach under Theo Epstein before Epstein hired him with the Cubs. Robin Ventura played for the White Sox. Mike Redmond played for the Marlins. Weiss played for the Rockies. So on and so forth.

Boone, of course, played for the Yankees back in the day, albeit briefly. He hit a big home run and was honest when he blew out his knee playing basketball. Boone could’ve made up some story about hurting the knee during an offseason workout to keep his contract, but he was honest, and I think the Yankees appreciated that. It says something about his character. That prior connection undoubtedly helped Boone — and the other rookie managers in our little 18-team sample — get their job. They had their foot in the door already.

2. Bo Porter is the cautionary tale. When the mid-tank Astros named Porter their new manager in September 2012, GM Jeff Luhnow had this to say:

“People know Bo is going to be here for a long time. He could be one of those guys who is an Astros manager for decades, not just years. The players knowing that this is the group that’s going to be here — it begins to lay the foundation for stability, which is really what we’re looking for.”

Clearly, Luhnow was very high on Porter. And less than two years later, he fired him. “I made this decision because I believe we need a new direction in our clubhouse,” said Luhnow after letting Porter go. The two reportedly had some communication problems leading up to the firing. Their relationship went south quick.

To me, this looks very much like a case of Porter not being the guy Luhnow expected. Luhnow thought he was hiring the next great manager, someone who could take all the fancy ideas the Astros have and implement them on the field, and it didn’t play out like that. The two couldn’t get on the same page. Porter had no prior managerial experience — he had plenty of coaching experience, but not managerial experience — so as much as Luhnow liked him, he was going in blind. He expected one thing and got another. That’s the risk that comes with an inexperienced manager.

3. True zero experience managers are rare. As you know, Boone has no coaching or front office experience whatsoever. He retired as a player, headed to the ESPN broadcast booth, and remained there until being hired by the Yankees a few weeks ago. Pretty crazy. Here’s the breakdown of our 18-manager sample:

Coaching experience: 12 (Jeff Banister, Kevin Cash, Andy Green, Chip Hale, Paul Molitor, Porter, Bryan Price, Redmond, Rick Renteria, Dave Roberts, Sveum, Williams)
Front office experience: 5 (Brad Ausmus, Craig Counsell, Scott Servais, Ventura, Weiss)
No front office or coaching experience: 1 (Matheny)

Like Matheny, Boone is going into his new managerial gig blind. He’s never coached and he’s never worked in a front office. Matheny is the only other guy to do that since the end of the 2011 season, and he’s still in the dugout for the Cardinals, so I guess that means he’s doing okay? (I know plenty of Cardinals fans who are sick of him, for what it’s worth.) The Yankees are asking Boone to do something that is very rare, and they’re asking him to do it in the game’s largest market. A bold decision, this is.

* * *

I didn’t expect to learn much from recent rookie managers, though I did think it was interesting teams more or less met projections with their rookie skipper after underperforming with their previous manager. In that sense, replacing Girardi with Boone is a huge outlier. PECOTA pegged the Yankees as an 82-win team last year, and they wound up winning 91. No other team since 2011 has replaced a manager after that much success (aside from La Russa retiring).

Can a bad manager sink a talented roster? Absolutely. Look at Williams and the Nationals a few years ago. The players were damn near the point of mutiny in the clubhouse. Can a good manager contend with a not so talented roster? Eh, maybe. I’m of the belief managers can do more harm than good. At the end of the day, talent wins out. The players play. I think the most likely outcome this coming season is the Yankees win a lot of games because they’re talented, and Boone looks smart because of the players.

Brian Cashman and the Front Office [2017 Season Review]

December 21, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

A little more than a year ago the Yankees were in the process of selling away veterans and selling their fans on the idea of a soft rebuild, or transition. They wouldn’t hard tank like the Astros or Braves, but if they had to take a step back in 2017 so they could be better in 2018 and beyond, so be it. Trying to get younger while staying competitive is much easier said than done.

Now the Yankees are coming off an ALCS Game Seven appearance and the on-the-fly rebuild went so well that Baseball America named Brian Cashman their Executive of the Year. Can you imagine? That’s usually reserved for the general manager of a small payroll team that overcame long odds to make the postseason. The Yankees went from seller to World Series contender in one season. It was incredible.

Clearly, Cashman and his front office did a pretty excellent job this year. Not just this year but over the last several years, putting the Yankees in position to have the season they just did. This post is not intended to evaluate the front office. Our entire Season Review series to date has been one big front office evaluation. We’re going to wrap the Season Review series up today with more of a state of the union look at the front office. Let’s get to it.

Cashman’s 20th Season

The 2017 season was Cashman’s 20th season as general manager, which is pretty crazy. General managers are not supposed to last that long. He is the longest tenured general manager in baseball and the third longest tenured baseball operations head behind Brian Sabean (Giants) and Billy Beane (Athletics). I’m sure if you asked Cashman, he’d tell you he never expected to be around this long.

For the first 17-18 years of his 20-year tenure, Cashman was dogged with “he inherited great teams” talk, which was true to some extent, but it was silly to pretend he had nothing to do with the sustained contention through the 2000s. Now though, these Yankees are Cashman’s team. There are no holdovers from Gene Michael or Bob Watson. And the roster is built around homegrown youth, not a bloated payroll.

More than anything, Cashman deserves credit for his (staff’s) success identifying buy low players and his patience. He acquired Didi Gregorius and Aaron Hicks on the cheap, and waited out the Giancarlo Stanton situation until the terms were favorable. The Yankees used to be a very aggressive team that blew everyone away with offers, either free agent offers or trade proposals. Now they tend to sit back and wait until the time is right to make an offer.

The club’s success this year landed Cashman yet another contract this offseason. It’s reportedly a five-year deal worth $25M that will ensure he gets to see this transition through. Is it unrealistic to say Cashman’s Yankees should win a World Series during that five-year contract? I mean, winning is hard, but no, that expectation is not unrealistic. Winning a championship is the goal now, and the Yankees have a roster capable of doing it soon.

The New Brain Trust

Like the roster, the front office is always changing. People come and go as opportunities arise. Surely Cashman and the Yankees would’ve loved for Billy Eppler to remain with them forever, but keeping smart people is not easy. The Angels offered Eppler a chance to be their general manager, a chance to run his own operation, and how could he say no to that?

Cashman has had to make changes to his support staff out of necessity in recent years, and I thought the people involved in the managerial search were pretty interesting. Cashman and four others were involved in the interview process. From Brendan Kuty:

Their first candidate, bench coach Rob Thomson, was asked after his interview who conducted his session. He said it was led by general manager Brian Cashman, with the four other people in the room: assistant GM Jean Afterman, assistant GM Michael Fishman, vice president of baseball operations Tim Naehring and assistant professional scouting director Dan Giese.

Afterman has been with the Yankees for 16 years now. Fishman hasn’t been with the Yankees that long, though it has been a while now, and he heads up the team’s analytics department, which is arguably the best and most sophisticated in baseball. Naehring replaced Eppler as Cashman’s right-hand man. Giese? He pitched for the Yankees in 2008 and was playing as recently as 2010. He’s since risen up the front office ranks quickly and is now sitting in on managerial interviews.

Front offices are always changing and evolving. They have to be. Smart people are hard to keep. They come and go and so do their ideas. The Yankees don’t hire many people from outside the organization — Jim Hendry, the former Cubs general manager, is the notable exception — but they do lose people. Eppler is gone. Gary Denbo is gone. Former pro scouting director Steve Martone is gone. (He is now Eppler’s assistant general manager.) The Yankees tend to develop their own front office talent and promote from within. I think that’s pretty impressive. At some time, bringing in some folks from outside the organization can be beneficial as well. It helps avoid groupthink.

A New Farm Director

Denbo left to join his old buddy Derek Jeter with the Marlins a few weeks ago. He ran the Yankees’ player development system, and almost as soon as Denbo took over three years ago, the Yankees became a player development machine. After producing a Robinson Cano here and a Brett Gardner there, the system under Denbo pumped out Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Greg Bird, Luis Severino, Jordan Montgomery, and others in a short period of time.

How much credit does Denbo deserve for the recent player development success? I have no idea, but I refuse to believe it is a coincidence the Yankees started producing players after he took over. Denbo is gone now, and a few weeks ago the Yankees tabbed Kevin Reese to replace him. Reese, like Giese, has risen up the front office ranks since his playing career ended, and now he’ll be tasked with continuing the player development success, because gosh, the Yankees still have a lot of prospects coming.

A case can be made that aside from Cashman, the overseer of all things Yankees, Reese may have the most important job in the front office. You can’t succeed in baseball without a productive farm system these days. You can’t buy a winning team though free agency. The farm system pipeline is crucial, and while Reese won’t be throwing pitches or swinging a bat, he is the man in charge. It’s his job to keep the pipeline flowing.

* * *

The only real complaint I have about the front office this season is that they didn’t add a bat at the trade deadline or in August. I thought it was an obvious need with Judge in his slump, Matt Holliday looking lost, and Bird’s status unknown. Guys like Jay Bruce and Neil Walker and Yonder Alonso were traded for basically nothing in August, and the Yankees wound up playing Chase Headley and Jacoby Ellsbury at DH in the postseason. Blah.

Aside from that, I think Cashman and the Yankees did a phenomenal job this season, starting with committing to the youth movement and continuing with the shift at midseason that led to adding Sonny Gray, Todd Frazier, David Robertson, and all those guys. I’m always kinda interested to see how rebuilding teams react when they start to win, because deciding when to go for it isn’t always easy. Cashman and the Yankees acted decisively this year. It was time to go young. And when that worked as well as it did, it became time to move prospects for big league help, and that’s what they did.

The Coaching Staff’s Last Ride [2017 Season Review]

December 18, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

Our season review series has reached the point where it is time to do the impossible: evaluate coaches. No one has come up with a good way to do it, at least from the outside. For the most part we just project player performance onto coaches. Leo Mazzone was a genius pitching coach when he had Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz. When he had Rodrigo Lopez, Kris Benson, and Daniel Cabrera? Not so much.

The 2017 season was the last season for this coaching staff as a unit. The Yankees parted ways with manager Joe Girardi after the season and they broke up the coaching staff as well. Most of it, anyway. New manager Aaron Boone will inherit at least one coach and possible more. Let’s try to review the season that was with the coaching staff.

Bench Coach: Rob Thomson

The 2017 season was Thomson’s 28th with the Yankees. He joined the organization as a minor league coach in 1990 and gradually worked his way up the ladder, holding a variety of coaching and front office positions along the way. This was his fourth season as Girardi’s bench coach (2008, 2015-17) and his tenth on the coaching staff overall. He spent the 2009-14 seasons as the third base coach.

Two things about Thomson’s season stand out to me, one good and one bad. Let’s start with the bad. Why didn’t he push harder for Girardi to challenge the Lonnie Chisenhall hit-by-pitch in ALDS Game Two? Argh. Girardi obviously did not trust Gary Sanchez enough to challenge it, but Thomson is his right-hand man, and a quick little “Joe we really need to challenge this” could’ve done wonders. Alas.

And two, Thomson received unsolicited praise from Girardi and Alex Rodriguez during the postseason. Girardi credited Thomson for his work with the team’s young players — “Rob Thomson, he stays on these guys all the time to make sure they’re in the right place and ready to go,” said Girardi during the ALCS — and A-Rod said something similar during a pregame segment for FOX. They both credited Thomson for working with the kids.

The Yankees did interview Thomson for their managerial opening, though I wonder whether that was something of a token interview, and a sign of respect for all his years in the organization. Thomson said he wanted to remain with the Yankees even if he didn’t get the job, and when he didn’t, he decided to take the Phillies bench coach job. It seems to me the Yankees decided to move on from Thomson, not the other way around.

Pitching Coach: Larry Rothschild

Once again, the Yankees had the most complained about great pitching staff in baseball. And it wasn’t only because of the bullpen. The bullpen was actually pretty shaky the first three months of the season. The rotation was very good overall. To wit:

ERA: 3.98 (5th in MLB and 2nd in AL)
ERA-: 90 (6th in MLB and 3rd in AL)
FIP: 4.18 (7th in MLB and 4th in AL)
FIP-: 92 (7th in MLB and 4th in AL)
K%: 23.7% (7th in MLB and 4th in AL)
BB%: 7.3% (5th in MLB and 3rd in AL)
GB%: 48.1% (5th in MLB and 2nd in AL)
fWAR: +15.2 (6th in MLB and 3rd in AL)

Luis Severino rebounded from a disaster 2016 season to become an ace in 2017, earning him a third place finish in the Cy Young voting. That happened because he worked with Pedro Martinez in the offseason though. Severino worked with Pedro then avoided Rothschild all season. CC Sabathia’s resurgence continued thanks to the cutter he learned from Andy Pettitte or Mariano Rivera last Spring Training. I dunno, it was probably one of those guys.

Masahiro Tanaka had a rough first half, which was Rothschild’s fault, then rebounded in the second half, because he figured some things out on his own, I assume. Dellin Betances walked a lot of guys this season, something he’s never done before in his career, and that is also Rothschild’s fault. Rothschild also convinced Tyler Clippard that throwing 90 mph fastballs middle-middle is great way to get outs. And remember when Aroldis Chapman credited Rothschild for helping him get over his issues by tweaking his fastball grip? He was crediting Rothschild out of pity.

The Yankees decided to bring Rothschild back next year — he is the only confirmed holdover coach at the moment — which I guess means Severino will have to avoid talking to him and Chapman will have to continue giving him pity credit for things. Looks like we’re in for another year of complaining about a very successful pitching staff.

Hitting Coaches: Alan Cockrell & Marcus Thames

A year ago the Yankees scored 680 runs. This year the Yankees scored 858 runs. They scored their 680th run this year on August 30th, in the 132nd game of the season. That’s pretty great! Of course, it helps to have a full season of Sanchez, for Aaron Judge to become literally the best power-hitting rookie in the history of the universe, for Aaron Hicks to break out, for Didi Gregorius to take another step forward, for Austin Romine to inexplicably hit .314 for a month while Sanchez was on the disabled list, plus a bunch of other things.

The single biggest reason the Yankees improved offensively this year was the change in personnel. A year ago the Yankees gave 1,173 plate appearances to A-Rod, Mark Teixeira, and Brian McCann, who combined to post a .301 OBP and a .380 SLG. Yeesh. Out with the old and in with the new. How much credit do Cockrell and Thames deserve for Sanchez doing what he did, and Judge doing what he did, and Hicks doing what he did? Impossible to say. Surely they had something to do with it. If nothing else, the players made Cockrell and Thames look good. But apparently not good enough to save Cockrell’s job. He is reportedly out with Thames taking over as the full-time hitting coach, though that has not yet been confirmed.

First & Third Base Coaches: Tony Pena & Joe Espada

As first base coach, one of Pena’s jobs involves timing the opposing pitcher to see whether attempting to steal a base makes sense. He literally times the pitcher’s delivery with a stopwatch, does the math with the catcher’s pop time and the runner’s speed, and determines whether running is worth it. I’m not joking. That’s part of what first base coaches do. Some team numbers:

SB: 90 (12th in MLB)
SB%: 80% (1st in MLB)
SB Attempts: 112 (16th in MLB)
SB Opportunities: 2,376 (1st in MLB)
SB Attempt%: 4.7% (20th in MLB)

The Yankees had the highest stolen base success rate in baseball, but they also ranked 20th in their attempt rate. Does that mean Pena didn’t do his job well because the Yankees should’ve run more? Well, no. Personnel matters, and it’s not just the guy on first base. Why would you send Brett Gardner when Judge and Sanchez are due up? Just let them hit with a man on base. The extra 90 feet isn’t worth the risk with those two dudes at the plate.

As for Espada, the third base coach, the Yankees had 20 runners thrown out at the plate this season, the fifth most in baseball. But! They also had 111 runners score from second on a single, the fifth most in baseball. On one hand, the aggressiveness paid off based on all those runners who did score from second on a single. On the other hand, having 20 runners thrown out at the plate kinda stinks, especially with the offense the Yankees had this year. Holding a runner at third and passing the baton to the next guy is a-okay with me.

Espada and Pena will not be back next season. Well, Espada won’t for sure. I thought he would get a chance to interview for the manager’s job, but that didn’t happen, and he is now the Astros bench coach. Pena? He did not interview for the managerial job and it doesn’t sound like he is coming back. I know Pena is a fan favorite — is it weird a coach is a fan favorite? I think that’s kinda weird — but it really seems like the Yankees are going for wholesale changes with their staff, not one or two tweaks, so Pena is likely out.

Bullpen Coach: Mike Harkey

Harkey really nailed answering the phone and waving his hat whenever a reliever was ready this season. Good response time, great hat-waving form. Knocked it out of the park. Harkey is a Girardi guy — they’ve been friends for a very long time, since they were Double-A batterymates in 1988 — and I figured that meant he would be gone as well, but apparently he will be back as bullpen coach next season. Huh. It hasn’t been announced yet, but multiple reports say so. Rothschild is coming back, Thames and Harkey are reportedly coming back, Thomson and Espada are gone, and Cockrell and Pena figure to be gone. It’s been a good run with that staff. Things will be different going forward.