Pitching Archives - Page 3 of 147

Justus Sheffield, Chance Adams will come to Spring Training as starting pitchers next year

September 18, 2018 by Mike

According to Conor Foley and DJ Eberle, senior director of player development Kevin Reese confirmed pitching prospects Justus Sheffield and Chance Adams will report to Spring Training as starting pitchers next year. Adams made a spot start for the Yankees last month, but both moved to the bullpen in recent weeks as preparation for their September call-up roles.

“I think looking forward, (the bullpen) is something we should try a little bit sooner with guys to give them the ability to kind of learn a routine,” said Reese, while noting lots of big league starters broke in as relievers. Chris Sale, David Price, Max Scherzer … they all initially broke into the show as relievers. Luis Severino did the bullpen thing for a bit too, remember.

In Sheffield’s case, he is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, with the three-pitch mix necessary to start long-term. He has to develop consistent control and command (10.5% walk rate this year), which is nothing unusual for a 22-year-old. Sheffield would’ve been in the big leagues a while ago if he could throw consistent strikes. Let him continue to start and keep working at it, even if it means more time in Triple-A.

As for Adams, he had a rough year in Triple-A (4.78 ERA and 4.87 FIP) and there have been doubts about his long-term viability as a starting pitcher dating back to when he made the reliever-to-starter transition three years ago. Of course the Yankees should bring him to camp as a starter. I think the Yankees are much more willing to keep Adams in the bullpen long-term than Sheffield though.

There’s no harm in bringing Sheffield and Adams to Spring Training as starters. Same with A.J. Cole, Domingo German, Luis Cessa, Jonathan Loaisiga, and anyone else like that. Bring them to camp ready to start and adjust as necessary. It’s much easier to go starter-to-reliever at the end of camp than the other way around. Sheffield will get plenty of chances to show he can hack it as a starter. Adams might not have the same luxury.

Poll: The 2018 Wild Card Game Starter

September 13, 2018 by Mike

Barring a stunning collapse by either the Red Sox or Yankees, the Yankees will play in the 2018 AL Wild Card Game on Wednesday, October 3rd. That’s three weeks from yesterday. The Yankees lost the 2015 Wild Card Game to the Astros and won the 2017 Wild Card Game against the Twins, so this won’t be their first wildcard rodeo. They’ve been through it before.

The Yankees will inevitably face the Athletics in the Wild Card Game — Oakland is 8.5 games up on the Mariners for a postseason spot, so yeah — which will be a daunting challenge, but winning the World Series ain’t easy. You’ve got to beat several good teams to do it and the Athletics are a very good team. You can write it in pen at this point: Yankees vs. Athletics in the 2018 AL Wild Card Game. Where? That is still up in the air.

At some point between now and then the Yankees (and A’s) will have to select a Wild Card Game starter and get that pitcher lined up for October 3rd. With Sean Manaea out, I assume the A’s will go with Mike Fiers, but we’ll see. The Yankees? It’s a bit less clear. Given Lance Lynn’s overall body of work, I think we can remove him from consideration. The other four starters all have a case to get the nod in the Wild Card Game. Let’s review.

J.A. Happ

Career Postseason: 3.72 ERA (4.06 FIP) in 19.1 innings
2018 vs. Athletics: 1 GS, 6 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HR

The case for Happ: Since coming over at the trade deadline, Happ has been everything the Yankees could’ve possibly wanted. Steady, reliable, low maintenance. He has a 2.70 ERA (4.45 FIP) with 22.9% strikeouts and 4.8% walks in eight starts and 46.2 innings with the Yankees, and, just last week, he held the A’s to one run in six innings and was dominant. Happ may not be a true top of the rotation starter like Chris Sale or Corey Kluber, but he’s a damn good pitcher, and I don’t get the sense the pressure of the postseason will get to him at all.

The case against Happ: Well, Happ did face the Athletics just last week, so they’d be seeing him for the second time in less than a month on Wild Card Game night. The more times you see a pitcher, especially several appearances close together, the more it becomes advantage hitter. The A’s know what Happ is about. They just saw him and have a firsthand scouting report. Also, I should note Happ is a fly ball pitcher (42.0% grounders) and the A’s have hit the third most home runs in MLB (200). That might not mix well.

CC Sabathia

Career Postseason: 4.20 ERA (4.35 FIP) in 126.1 innings
2018 vs. Athletics: 1 GS, 3.1 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 0 HR

The case for Sabathia: First of all, Sabathia’s been really good this year! I feel like we’re not appreciating enough the fact he has a 3.54 ERA (4.04 FIP) in 139.2 innings on one good knee. Sabathia has the third highest soft contact rate (24.6%) and the eighth lowest hard contact rate (28.9%) in baseball. Hitters have had a hard time squaring him up and that has been the case for nearly three years now. And we know Sabathia won’t be overwhelmed by the moment. He’s pitched in a lot of big games over the years. There’s a reason the Yankees picked him to start ALDS Game Five and ALDS Game Seven last year. Game Five went great. Game Seven … not so much. But credit the Astros. They’re pretty good.

The case against Sabathia: The A’s saw Sabathia just last week and roughed him up pretty good. Also, Sabathia has been just okay since returning from the disabled list last month, pitching to a 4.87 ERA (2.03 FIP) in four starts and 20.1 innings. The disaster start against in Oakland is skewing that a bit (3.71 ERA in the other three starts), but still, the outs and 1-2-3 innings haven’t come quite as easily the last three or four weeks.

Luis Severino

Career Postseason: 5.63 ERA (7.22 FIP) in 16 innings
2018 vs. Athletics: 2 GS, 8.2 IP, 11 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 3 B, 10 K, 0 HR

The case for Severino: Severino is the most talented pitcher in the rotation. He’s the best bet to limit balls in play and he is probably the team’s best chance at a dominant Wild Card Game start. The guy didn’t take a 2.31 ERA (2.75 FIP) into the All-Star break by accident. Severino pitched at a similar level last season. If the Yankees want someone who can overpower the Athletics and avoid balls in play, Severino is their best bet. When he’s right, he’s among the best in the sport.

The case against Severino: The last two months can not be ignored. Severino has lost his slider and his command has wavered, and, as a result, he has a 6.34 ERA (4.35 FIP) in his last 12 starts and 61 innings, and that includes last night’s rebound start against the Twins. His worst outing of the season came last week, against the same A’s team he’d face in the Wild Card Game. Severino was arguably the best pitcher in the league in the first half. He has inarguably been one of the worst in the second half. As good as his overall body of work is since the start of last season, you can’t ignore what’s right in front of you. Severino has been thoroughly ineffective since early July. Perhaps last night was a #turningpoint. We’ll have to wait and see.

Masahiro Tanaka

Career Postseason: 1.44 ERA (3.23 FIP) in 25 innings
2018 vs. Athletics: N/A

The case for Tanaka: Wow has Tanaka been good lately. He’s been the opposite of Severino. He started poorly and is finishing very well. Tanaka has a 2.35 ERA (2.93 FIP) with great strikeout (25.9%), walk (4.3%), and ground ball (50.9%) rates in his last ten starts and 65 innings. Happ has been very good overall. Tanaka has been the Yankees’ best starter for more than two months now. Also, Tanaka hasn’t faced the A’s this season! Oakland’s hitters would be going in blind. And who could forget what he did in the postseason last year? There is no moment too big for him.

The case against Tanaka: For starters, Tanaka remains very home run prone (1.5 HR/9), and the A’s can hit the ball out of the park. Their 200 home runs are second in the American League to the Yankees (234). Secondly, Tanaka excels by getting hitters to chase out of the zone. He leads all pitchers in chase rate this year (40.1%). He led all pitchers in chase rate last year (42.1%). That’s what Tanaka does. He gets hitter to expand the zone. The Athletics, however, do not chase out of the zone. Their team 27.6% chase rate is the lowest in baseball. Only the Dodgers (26.9%) chase less. They’re the type of offense that could lay off those splitters and sliders, and back Tanaka into bad counts.

* * *

You could make the case the Yankees should just bullpen game the Wild Card Game. That might be tough to do without an effective Aroldis Chapman, however. Two innings from Jonathan Holder, two innings from Chad Green, then cobble together five innings from David Robertson, Zach Britton, and Dellin Betances? Chapman returning and being effective would make the bullpen game plan a little more realistic.

The Yankees have not given any indication they will bullpen game the Wild Card Game — they effectively bullpen gamed it last year, and when they got to ALDS, their bullpen was fried for the first few games — and I’m cool with that. Start an actual starter and adjust as necessary on the fly. Again, that’s what the Yankees did last year. If they get four or five good innings from the starter before going to the bullpen, great! That’d be ideal.

Given the remaining schedule, Severino is currently lined up to start the Wild Card Game on normal rest. That doesn’t mean much though. There’s still time to rearrange things and get Tanaka or Severino or Sabathia lined up for that day on normal rest, with extra rest, whatever. The Yankees have about a week, a week and a half to really nail this down. Anyway, the Wild Card Game starter is begging for a poll, so let’s get to it.

J.A. Happ has given the Yankees exactly what they’ve needed since the trade deadline

September 11, 2018 by Mike

Coming into the season, the question was not “will the Yankees get a starter at the deadline?” The question was “which starter will they get?” It was a damn near certainly the Yankees would get another starting pitcher, especially after Jordan Montgomery went down with Tommy John surgery and Sonny Gray stayed healthy but went full Javy Vazquez. The need for another starter was clear.

A no-doubt ace never hit the market. Jacob deGrom was never really available and calling Chris Archer an ace at this point is a bit of a stretch. That was a bummer for the Yankees, who had the prospect capital to get pretty much any player they wanted. They could’ve made the best offer for deGrom. I’m not sure the Mets would’ve traded him to the Yankees, but the Yankees had the pieces to get it done.

So, with no clear cut ace on the market, the Yankees went for the next best thing: Reliability. That led them to left-hander J.A. Happ, who, funnily enough, really struggled before the trade. Remember when he allowed 26 runs in his final five starts and 31.1 innings with the Blue Jays? People freaked out and said he wouldn’t be a good pickup. Then the Yankees traded for him, and there was more freakout.

Last night Happ made his eighth start as a Yankee, and, for the fifth time in those eight starts, he threw at least six innings and allowed no more than two runs. It was the sixth time he allowed no more than two runs period. Happ tossed six scoreless innings against the Twins last night and it could’ve been seven innings, but, once the Yankees broke the game open, there was no sense in wasting bullets.

“He’s a very good pitcher, an easy guy to catch,” said Gary Sanchez to Bryan Hoch following last night’s game. “A guy that’s aggressive, a guy that goes after strike one. He has a really good plan from the beginning, executes the plan. When you have a guy like that, it allows you to get on the same page with him and be able to work effectively.”

Happ has had one disaster start with the Yankees — the Tigers tagged him for five runs and three homers in 4.1 innings in August 30th — but has otherwise been exactly what the team needed. He’s been effective, he chews up innings, and he doesn’t seem to be rattled by anything. Happ seems very low maintenance. The Yankees plugged him right into the rotation and away he went.

In his eight starts with New York, Happ owns a 2.70 ERA (4.45 FIP) — the homers in that start against Detroit did a number on his FIP — with 22.9% strikeouts and 4.8% walks. He’s not getting ground balls (36.2%), though ground balls were never his thing anyway. He’s more of a weak contact guy, and, this year, Happ has the 12th highest soft contact rate (20.6%) and 18th lowest hard contact rate (31.9%) in baseball. That’ll play.

Beyond the quality innings, Happ also gives the Yankees a different look. They are still the most extreme anti-fastball team in baseball. Only 46.2% of their total pitches this year have been fastballs. No other team is below 49.2% and only three other teams are below 50.0%. Happ, meanwhile, is one of the most extreme fastball pitchers in baseball. The fastball leaderboard:

Bartolo Colon: 78.3%
Lance Lynn: 77.4% (88.6% with Yankees)
J.A. Happ: 73.0% (71.3% with Yankees)
Brad Keller: 70.2%
Trevor Williams: 69.7%

The Yankees acquired two of the top three starters in fastball usage at the deadline despite being the most extreme anti-fastball team in baseball. Coincidence? Yeah, I think so, actually. I think acquiring Lynn and Happ had more to do with who was available at the trade deadline than it was a certain pitching philosophy. Either way, the Yankees added Happ, he’s stuck with throwing a ton of fastballs, and he’s been very good for them overall.

At some point soon the Yankees will have to pick a starter for the Wild Card Game and, to me, it seems like it’s down to Happ or Masahiro Tanaka. Luis Severino hasn’t pitched well for two months now, and while I think the Yankees would be cool with running CC Sabathia out there in a winner-take-all game (they did it twice last postseason), Happ and Tanaka feel like the best options. I’m not sure there’s a wrong answer here. Either works.

For now, the Yankees desperately needed someone to step in and provide rotation stability, and Happ has done that. Gray stunk, Montgomery got hurt, and Domingo German showed flashes of brilliance but was largely ineffective. They went out and got Happ, even after his rough final five starts with the Blue Jays, and he’s given the team a real shot in the arm in the second half. He’s been everything they could’ve possibly hoped.

“It’s been exciting since I got here, and it’s obviously still that way,” said Happ to Hoch. “We’re still trying to chase this thing down and we know that we’ve got to play good baseball to keep that spot. It’s exciting. Every game means something and that little bit extra definitely helps.”

For the Yankees, Luis Severino’s continued ineffectiveness is a much bigger problem than Sanchez’s blocking

September 6, 2018 by Mike

What a mess of a first inning last night. Somehow stranding the bases loaded in the top of the first was the least bad part of it all. Luis Severino, with an assist (four assists, really) from Gary Sanchez, allowed four runs in the bottom of the first to dig a daunting early hole. The Yankees could never climb out of it.

Understandably, the conversation after the game revolved around Sanchez and the four — four! — pitches that went to the backstop in that first inning. Two were scored wild pitches, but all four could’ve been passed balls. Maybe the first should’ve been a wild pitch because Severino missed his spot by more than the entire width of the plate. Either way, it was ugly.

“There were a couple of cross-ups, but, at the end of the day, they were near the zone and I feel I have the ability to stop them, and I didn’t,” said Sanchez following the game. Severino blamed a new set of signs on their problems. It was particularly damning that, after the inning, no one spoke to Gary in the dugout (or at least YES didn’t show anyone talking to him). Mistakes happen and usually there’s a “we’ll pick you up” pat on the behind or something like that. Not last night.

Sanchez is a terrible blocker and has been pretty much his entire career. He has a great arm and rates well as a pitch-framer, and prior to this season he was a monster at the plate, so everyone kinda held their nose and looked the other way when a ball got by him. I ran the numbers before the season and found Sanchez’s passed balls led to nine runs scoring last year. Nine. Given everything else he provides, it was a worthwhile trade-off. The bat hasn’t been there this year — hopefully last night’s homer gets him going — which makes the defensive miscues more damning.

This isn’t about Sanchez though, despite his terrible night behind the plate. This is about Severino, who had another bad start, arguably his worst of the season. Sanchez’s passed balls make it easy to overlook that Severino allowed four 100+ mph batted balls to the first five batters he faced. Both Brett Gardner and Andrew McCutchen had balls hit over their heads, and Severino’s problems continued into the second and especially the third innings as well. Six runs (five earned) in 2.2 innings is real bad.

In his last eleven starts now Severino is sporting a 6.83 ERA (4.65 FIP) with a .323/.360/.574 opponent’s batting line. That is pretty close to Christian Yelich (.316/.380/.556). Severino has turned every hitter he’s faced in his last eleven starts into Christian Yelich. Ouch. The trends are scary:

Hard contact allowed is up and fastball velocity is down. Last night Severino’s heater averaged 96.2 mph. Two things about that. One, only seven starting pitchers have a higher average fastball velocity than that this season. And two, that is Severino’s lowest average fastball velocity in any game since April 2016. For mere mortals, it’s great velocity. For Severino, it is down considerably.

I don’t think Severino is hurt — if he is hurt, he’s the first starter I’ve ever seen throw 96+ mph while hurt — but, anytime there’s a decline in velocity, injury is always a possibility. I trust the Yankees are on top of Severino, physically. He’s too important to the team, both short and long-term, to send him out there injured. I think, more than anything, Severino is hitting a wall after last year’s career high workload and shorter than usual offseason to recover.

It is late in the season and it seems to me the Yankees should skip Severino’s next start in an effort to recharge the batteries. The Yankees have an off-day today, an off-day next Thursday, and an off-day the Monday after that. Use a spot starter (Sonny Gray? Luis Cessa? Jonathan Loaisiga?) next week against the Twins and the Yankees will be able to push Severino’s next start all the way back to September 22nd. Doing so accomplished three things:

Gives him a nice long 16-day break between starts in September.
Allows him to make two tune-up starts before the postseason.
Keeps him lined up to start the Wild Card Game on October 3rd.

The Wild Card Game starter is very much up in the air right now. There was no sense in worrying about it a few weeks ago. Now we’re at the point where the Yankees have to start thinking about it. And, right now, I don’t see any way the Yankees could give the ball to Severino in that Wild Card Game. His struggles have gone on too long. It’s not a two or three-start blip. It’s a two or three-month skid.

Given everything we know right now, the Yankees would have to give the ball to either J.A. Happ or Masahiro Tanaka in the Wild Card Game. I’d trust CC Sabathia in that game as well, though my sense is Happ or Tanaka would be the guy. The final 22 games of the regular season — less than that, really, since the Yankees will need some time to make sure the Wild Card Game starter is lined up for the Wild Card Game — figure to be the tiebreaker.

As bad as Sanchez was behind the plate last night — and he was terrible — the larger problem is Severino’s continued fall from grace. He was arguably the best pitcher in the league in the first half and he has inarguably been one of the worst in the second half. I hope it’s just a young pitcher hitting a wall after a big workload last year. Severino wouldn’t be the first young pitcher to go through a lull the year after a career high workload and he wouldn’t be the last.

“We have a few weeks for that kind of stuff to unfold and see where we are at and make those decisions. Do I think those two guys are capable of going out and shoving? Absolutely,” said Aaron Boone last night when asked if the Yankees could start Severino and Sanchez in the Wild Card Game. The passed balls get the most attention and understandably so. They are glaring, easy-to-see mistakes. As far as the team’s World Series chances go, Severino’s continued (and worsening) ineffectiveness is the more serious problem. A deep postseason run may not be possible with this version of Severino.

September call-ups are right around the corner, so it’s time to talk about a six-man rotation again

August 31, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Starting tomorrow the 30 MLB teams will be allowed to expand their active roster from 25 players to as many as 40 players. No more worrying about running out of relievers or using an emergency catcher or anything like that. Reinforcements are on the way. The Yankees have called up lots of players on September 1st in recent years and I have no reason to think this year will be any different.

Expanded rosters create flexibility and a chance for creativity, and, with the Yankees, the talk always seems to center around a six-man rotation. They’ve made it clear they value giving their starters extra rest whenever possible. A six-man rotation is tough to do from April through August — a six-man rotation means a seven-man bullpen and a three-man bench, or an eight-man bullpen or a two-man bench — but September? Piece of cake.

The Yankees, perhaps moreso than at any point in the last four or five years, are well-positioned to use a six-man rotation in September. That’s because they actually have six viable big league starters, or thereabouts. It can be a challenge finding five big leaguer starters sometimes. Right now, the rotation depth chart looks something like this:

Luis Severino
Masahiro Tanaka
CC Sabathia
J.A. Happ
Lance Lynn
Sonny Gray
Luis Cessa
Domingo German
Jonathan Loaisiga

Don’t get too caught up in the 1-5 order. Those guys are the top five starters. The order doesn’t really matter. Gray is the obvious sixth man, Cessa has been the primary spot starter, then German and Loaisiga fall into place at the end there. Aside from Cessa, who’s been up-and-down all year, the other three guys all held down a rotation spot at some point earlier season.

Gray pitched very well last weekend, but it was against the Orioles, and they stink. Maybe he truly has turned a corner. I’m not falling for it again though. He’s going to have to do it again (and again and again) for me to buy in. The Yankees could go with Sonny as a sixth starter in September though. It is an option. If not him, German and Loaisiga could be options, ditto Cessa. That’s a pretty good crop of sixth starter candidates, I’d say.

The No. 1 benefit of the six-man rotation is extra rest. Sabathia, Tanaka, Happ, and especially Severino all get a little late season breather heading into the postseason. Improved performance is part of it as well, though that can sometimes be more theoretical than reality. The 2018 numbers real quick:

	Regular Rest	Extra Rest
Gray (as SP)	50.1 IP, 3.40 ERA, .634 OPS	59.2 IP, 6.79 ERA, .868 OPS
Happ	51.2 IP, 2.79 ERA, .672 OPS	92.2 IP, 4.37 ERA, .646 OPS
Lynn	54 IP, 5.83 ERA, .814 OPS	75.2 IP, 4.40 ERA, .711 OPS
Sabathia	67.2 IP, 3.46 ERA, .674 OPS	57.2 IP, 3.12 ERA, .734 OPS
Severino	81.2 IP, 3.20 ERA, .664 OPS	83.3 IP, 3.33 ERA, .661 OPS
Tanaka	34 IP, 3.71 ERA, .689 OPS	93 IP, 4.06 ERA, .744 OPS

There’s no pattern there. It’s almost like weird and different things can happen in relatively small sample sizes. Extra rest improves performance on a league average level — the league average is a 4.41 ERA on normal rest and a 4.25 ERA with extra rest — but, individually, who knows? Every pitcher is different. Some guys benefit (Lynn, Sabathia), some guys don’t (Gray, Happ, Tanaka), and for some guys it doesn’t mater at all (Severino).

Going to a six-man rotation and expecting better performance is kind of a fool’s errand. The extra rest does equal less wear and tear though, that is undeniable — throw fewer pitches and there’s less fatigue — it’s just a question of whether the extra rest now equals improved performance down the road, specifically in the postseason. Every player is beat up and running on fumes in September. Anything to give your horses a little breather seems worthwhile.

The upside here is more rest for the regular starters late in the season. The downside is more starts for your sixth starter and fewer starts for your top starters, which could hurt the team overall. Then again, we’re only talking about three or four starters here, so it might not be a huge deal. My guess is the Yankees will stick with a five-man rotation for at least a few weeks. They haven’t clinched anything yet and it’s too soon to go into cruise control.

In mid-to-late September though, once the postseason races really start to firm up, the Yankees could go to a six-man rotation for a turn or two, just for that little extra rest before October. The Yankees have used spot sixth starters and manipulated off-days to give their starters extra rest enough times these last few years to tell us they value that extra rest. With expanded rosters coming tomorrow, giving the starters that extra rest is about to get much easier.

Luis Severino is still struggling, so let’s try to figure out what’s wrong with him

August 15, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

As far as I’m concerned, there is no bigger problem in Yankeeland right now than Luis Severino. Hard to believe considering how excellent he was earlier this season. Even with Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez sidelined, and the SuperBullpen being anything but super lately, Severino’s crash back to Earth is the team’s biggest problem. He’s been terrible lately and this goes back more than a month now.

Monday night Severino needed 98 pitches to get through four innings against a generally punchless Mets lineup, and he gave up dingers to light-hitting Amed Rosario and washed up Jose Bautista. Granted, both were short porch jobs, but the fact both squared up fastballs is a problem. Severino should be blowing hitters like them away. He was up until about a month ago. The numbers:

	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	GB%	HR/9	Whiff%
First 18 starts	118.1	1.98	2.30	30.1%	6.3%	45.6%	0.46	12.9%
Last 7 starts	36	7.50	5.94	21.2%	4.9%	33.1%	2.75	10.7%

Some home run regression was inevitable. No one gets through an entire season allowing less than one home run every 18 innings while playing their home games in Yankee Stadium and most of their road games in other hitter friendly AL East parks. (The lowest home run rate by a Yankees starter since the current Yankee Stadium opened is 0.64 HR/9 by CC Sabathia in 2011.)

This is beyond simple regression to the mean, however. Severino has allowed eleven homers in his last seven starts and multiple home runs in four of those seven starts. He’s allowed a home run in seven straight starts for the first time in his big league career. Homers are up, grounders are down, swings and misses are down, strikeouts are down. Some more numbers:

First 18 starts: 31.8% hard contact and 87.3 mph average exit velocity
Last 7 starts: 36.4% hard contact and 89.4 mph average exit velocity

Severino’s expected wOBA allowed in his first 18 starts was .285. Out of this world good. In his last seven starts, it’s a .386 xwOBA. Pretty bad. You didn’t need to see the numbers to know he’s getting hit harder though. Severino is allowing more hard contact and he’s allowing hitters to put the ball in the air. When that happens, bad things tend to follow.

Severino is really struggling. We know that much. The worst part is that no one seems to know why he’s struggling. Or, if the Yankees do know what’s up, they’re not letting on. I suppose that isn’t surprising. The Yankees are very good at saying a lot of words without revealing anything. They like it that way.

“We got to help him and get to the bottom of it. Physically, I think he’s sound, but we’ve got to get this righted,” said Aaron Boone following Monday’s game. “And that’s on all of us, because he’s so important. The last couple outings where I feel like I see that sign where he’s getting that life back on both his fastball and his slider, I didn’t see that life as much today.”

Against the Red Sox and White Sox, Severino struggled early before settling down and pitching well the rest of his start. That was encouraging. We didn’t see that against the Mets though. It was a grind right from the get-go. So, with Severino still laboring and ineffective, I figure this is as good a time as any to break him down a bit, and see what’s going on under the hood. Let’s get to it.

Velocity

Yes, Severino’s fastball velocity has been down recently. No, it is not down an alarming amount. There were starts right around this time last season when Severino’s velocity dipped a tad. It’s a long season, man. There are bound to be ups and downs along the way. The start-by-start average velocities:

Had Severino suddenly been missing 2-3 mph off his season average, then I’d be worried. Fluctuating a little in either direction each time out is pretty normal. Sometimes the ball jumps, sometimes it doesn’t. Severino is still the hardest throwing starter in baseball and the recent downturn in velocity is not particularly close to being a cause for panic to me. The arm speed is still here.

Spin Rate

Boone mentioned Severino “getting that life back” on his fastball and slider, and when people talk about “life” on pitches, they’re generally referring to spin rate. High spin rate is what gives a fastball that explosion and a breaking ball that bite. Severino, even with his recent slump, has comfortably above average spin rates. The season numbers:

Fastball: 2,373 rpm (MLB average: 2,263 rpm)
Slider: 2,885 rpm (MLB average: 2,392 rpm)

Only Garrett Richards (2,897 rpm) has a higher average slider spin rate than Severino this year. Severino’s slider is truly elite given the spin, the velocity, and the swing-and-miss ability. Well, it’s elite when he’s going right, which he hasn’t been for more than a month now. Here are Severino’s start-by-start spin rates (click for larger view):

Fastball is holding strong. That’s good. The slider? Not so much. It has been down his last seven starts, sometimes drastically. In his first 18 starts, the slider averaged 2,911 rpm. In his last seven starts, it’s down to 2,822 rpm. Still well-above-average and elite. But not as good as before.

A decline in spin rate could be the result of something as simple as a grip issue. Maybe Severino has a small blister or a cut or a cracked fingernail, and it is preventing him from throwing his slider the way he did earlier this year. That would be the best and preferred explanation, as far as I’m concerned. Some cosmetic damage to his hand or finger isn’t a big deal.

A decline in spin rate can also be indicative of injury. I’ve seen lots of pitchers pitch hurt over the years and Severino doesn’t look hurt to me. Injured pitchers don’t pump 97+ mph heaters and elite spin sliders with regularity. That isn’t to say Severino isn’t injured. It just means that if he is injured, he’s throwing better than any injured pitcher I’ve ever seen.

Release Points

This is kinda interesting. It is not uncommon for pitchers to have different release points for each individual pitch. No one throws a fastball the same way they throw a slider. The arm works in different ways. Last year Severino’s horizontal release point for his fastball and slider were tight together. This year they’ve drifted apart.

This is the horizontal release point, remember. This graph is telling us Severino is releasing his slider closer to the third base side of the mound than his fastball. The difference is relatively small. Roughly two inches. And when a guy is releasing the ball 50-something feet from home plate and his arm is moving that fast, I’m not sure two inches is enough for the batter to pick up.

Now here are Severino’s vertical release points.

There’s always been a gap here — this means Severino releases his fastball from a higher spot than his slider, and again, the difference is about two inches — and lately that gap seems to be growing. Severino’s fastball release point keeps climbing whereas his slider release point has leveled off.

The good news: Injured pitchers typically don’t raise their arm slot. When a guy is pitching hurt, the arm slot comes down because the same strength isn’t there. It could be that Severino is struggling and trying to compensate by throwing harder (i.e. overthrowing), hence the higher fastball release point. He certainly wouldn’t be the first young pitcher who tries to snap out of a slump by throwing the ball through a brick wall.

Two things to note here. One, Severino has always had gap in vertical release point between his fastball and slider. The gap is bigger now than it has been at any point in the last two years, but the gap always existed. And two, Severino has had a gap in his horizontal release points all season. Even when he dominating earlier this year. This isn’t a new issue and he’s had success doing it.

I’m not smart enough to know whether the release points issues are causing his slump. I’m just noting these release point gaps exist, and, in the case of Severino’s vertical release points, the gap has been growing the last few weeks.

Is he tipping his pitches?

This is always a possibility. It’s been seven starts though. The Yankees are not stupid. If Severino were tipping his pitches, it would not continue for seven starts. They’d have picked up on it and corrected it in short order. Severino has been hit hard by too many teams — he’s faced seven different teams during these last seven starts — for me to believe he’s tipping his pitches. That would mean basically half the American League has picked up on it, but the Yankees haven’t. Come on now.

It seems like, every times a really good pitcher struggles, the default explanation is “he’s tipping his pitches.” I hate it. Sometimes it’s true! Most of the time it is not. Eduardo Perez even gave a vague explanation of how Severino might tip pitches during the ESPN broadcast the other night without actually saying whether he’s tipping pitches. A zero value added broadcast segment, that was. Maybe Severino really is tipping his pitches and the Yankees employ hoards of dunces who have not yet figured it out. I’d bet against it.

Workload

Following Monday’s game, Severino ranked ninth among all pitches in innings pitched (154.1) and seventh in pitches thrown (2,495). Lots of work! Consider Severino’s workload on this date last year:

Innings: 143.2
Pitches Thrown: 2,325

The difference is 10.2 innings and 170 pitches, so two starts, basically. The season started earlier this year than last year — Opening Day was April 2nd last year, this year it was March 29th — which explains the added workload to some degree, but also keep in mind how much Severino pitched last year. He threw a career high 209.1 innings last season, postseason included. His previous career high was 161.2 innings in 2015.

Furthermore, the Yankees went to Game Seven of the ALCS last year. Their season ended on October 21st. That means Severino had a shorter offseason to recover from that career high workload. Long story short, the kid’s thrown a lot of pitches the last two years, and the Yankees are aware of that, which is why they gave him that long break around the All-Star break.

“I’m not tired. It’s nothing out of the ordinary,” Severino said following Monday’s start. “Things aren’t going my way right now, but I know that I’ll work and try to fix it. I keep making the same mistakes, over and over.”

It’s great that Severino doesn’t feel tired, but I’m not sure how much I believe him. He’s a competitor and he wants to pitch. How many guys will admit to being fatigued? Pretty much no one, even if they are and know they are. The Yankees say they’re not planning to skip Severino’s next start — that would be Saturday against the Blue Jays — though two off-days next week allows them to give him nine days between starts after Saturday. Seems worthwhile.

* * *

Two things stand out to me. One, the spin rate on Severino’s slider is dipping. Why? I don’t know. But he’s left a lot of sliders out over the plate recently, especially in two-strike counts, and opponents have hit him hard. The decline in spin rate could be the result of some problem that has been dogging him. Hopefully it’s just a grip. It happens.

And two, Severino’s workload is really getting up there. Including postseason, he’s thrown 353 innings and 5,861 pitches over the last 17 months. That’s a lot for anyone, especially a pitcher who turned only 24 in February and isn’t the biggest guy in the world. The workload could be catching up to him, which doesn’t necessarily mean a second wind isn’t coming at some point.

Using the off-days next week to give Severino another break seems like a no-brainer to me, especially since the Yankees are facing nothing but bad teams these days. The fact Severino’s fastball velocity and spin rate are right where they always are is encouraging. That leads me to believe he’s healthy. Now it’s just a matter of figuring out what is wrong, and so far, no one seems to have any answers.

Yankees reportedly calling up Chance Adams to start Saturday

August 3, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

According to Joel Sherman, the Yankees are planning to call up Chance Adams to start Saturday’s game. He’ll be filling in for J.A. Happ, who is out with hand, foot, and mouth disease. Luis Cessa had been tentatively scheduled to start Saturday, but was needed in long relief last night.

Adams, 23, is the team’s No. 8 prospect. He’s had an uneven season with Triple-A Scranton, throwing 98 innings with a 4.50 ERA (4.30 FIP). His strikeout rate is good (24.2%). His walk (11.4%) and ground ball (43.0%) rates are not. Adams took a no-hitter into the seventh inning last time out and he has a 3.32 ERA (3.85 FIP) in his last nine starts and 43.1 innings, so at least he’s trending in the right direction.

Here’s an updated scouting report, via MLB.com:

After sitting at 93-95 mph with his fastball in his first two seasons as pro starter, Adams had offseason surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow and has operated at 91-93 in 2018. His slider has lost a couple of ticks of velocity as well and isn’t as sharp as it has been in the past.

Besides regaining his velocity, the key for Adams to reaching his upside as a No. 3 starter will be refining his changeup into a solid third offering. He also has a curveball that’s his fourth-best pitch yet still qualifies as average. He lives on the corners and the bottom of the strike zone, making it difficult to square him up.

To me, this is the perfect opportunity for the Yankees to use an “opener” a la the Rays. Start a reliever on Saturday, let him get through the big bats at the top of the lineup, then turn it over to Adams and hope he can give you five innings while only facing the top of the lineup once. Maybe David Robertson can do it? Letting Adams face Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, and J.D. Martinez in Fenway Park in his first inning as a big leaguer is rough.

Opener or no opener, Adams will be the fourth player to make his MLB debut with the Yankees this season, joining Jonathan Loaisiga, Billy McKinney, and Gleyber Torres. The Yankees have an open 40-man roster spot for Adams, so that won’t be an issue. He’ll be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season and was going to be added to the 40-man anyway. The Yankees are just getting a head start on it.