River Avenue Blues

Update: Luis Severino shut down six weeks with lat strain

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(Presswire)

Tuesday: Today’s MRI revealed a Grade II lat strain and Luis Severino will be shut down six weeks, the Yankees announced. They say it is a new injury independent of the rotation cuff inflammation. Six week shutdown means the best case scenario is a mid-to-late June return for Severino. Rats.

Monday: Luis Severino is heading to New York for tests and further examination on his shoulder, Aaron Boone announced this afternoon. Supposedly Severino does not feel any pain, but he is “not where he needs to be” and isn’t making as much progress with his throwing program as expected.

Severino was shut down with rotator cuff inflammation on March 5th and he’s spent the last few weeks throwing down in Tampa. He’s been long-tossing at a distance beyond 120 feet, but has not been able to get back on a mound. That was initially expected to happen a week ago and never did.

Brian Cashman recently said the Yankees were hoping to get Severino back in early May. That is almost certainly not happening now. Even if these latest tests bring back good news, Severino has a lot of rehab work ahead of him to get to MLB ready. Late May or June is probably the best case scenario now.

Given the natural of the injury, the Yankees should move forward as if Severino will not be back at all this year. Treat whatever you get from him as a bonus. If the Yankees don’t want to splurge for Dallas Keuchel, fine, but they should start looking at the trade market, which they probably already are.

CC Sabathia is expected to rejoin the Yankees next weekend, which means either Domingo German or Jonathan Loaisiga will be stashed in Triple-A as depth. The Yankees also have Gio Gonzalez in Triple-A for at least another two weeks. The depth isn’t bad. It’s just that you don’t want to have to use it.

The downside is the Yankees are without their best pitcher and won’t get him back anytime soon. Winning the AL East was going to be difficult with a healthy Severino. Now they have to do it without him for a chunk of the season. Even the best case scenario right now is bad news for the 2019 Yankees.

Game 11: Bounce Back in Houston

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(Getty)

Gosh, did last night’s loss stink, or what? That’s a game the Yankees really have to close out. They emerged from the Masahiro Tanaka vs. Justin Verlander duel with a two-run lead after six innings and the bullpen couldn’t hold it. Everyone did their part except the team’s supposed strength. Annoying.

“(Tanaka) worked pretty hard in the sixth. We were pretty convicted that was it, and set up there to roll out (Zack) Britton there, and obviously (Adam Ottavino) with their righties at the top of the order and then (Aroldis Chapman). So it set up pretty well for us,” Aaron Boone said to George King and Kevin Kernan following the game. “… Yeah it stings a little bit.”

Oh well, can’t do anything about last night’s game now. The Yankees have a chance to even the series at a game apiece tonight and win for the fourth time in their last five games overall. All they have to do is win a game in which their seventh starter is matched up against one of the five best pitchers in the American League. What’s that they say about baseball, Suzyn? Here are tonight’s lineups:

New York Yankees
1. CF Brett Gardner
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. 1B Luke Voit
4. DH Gary Sanchez
5. SS Gleyber Torres
6. 2B DJ LeMahieu
7. LF Clint Frazier
8. 3B Gio Urshela
9. C Austin Romine

RHP Jonathan Loaisiga

Houston Astros
1. CF George Springer
2. 2B Jose Altuve
3. 3B Alex Bregman
4. DH Michael Brantley
5. SS Carlos Correa
6. 1B Yuli Gurriel
7. RF Josh Reddick
8. C Robinson Chirinos
9. LF Tony Kemp

RHP Gerrit Cole

Nice warm night in Houston. Warm enough that the Minute Maid Park roof is closed and the air conditioning is on. Tonight’s game will begin at 8:10pm ET and you can watch on the YES Network locally and ESPN nationally. Enjoy the ballgame.

Injury Updates: Luis Severino (shoulder) had his MRI late this afternoon and the Yankees don’t have an update yet. They’ll probably have one after the game … Miguel Andujar (shoulder) will play catch tomorrow for the first time since behind shut down. That’s a significant test given the nature of the injury … Dellin Betances (shoulder) faced hitters yesterday and he’s tentatively scheduled to throw a simulated game Thursday.

What do the Yankees have in Mike Tauchman?

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Who? That was my reaction when the Yankees acquired Mike Tauchman in an eleventh hour deal before the regular season began. I’m sure I wasn’t alone. The trade was a result of need with Aaron Hicks’s recovery dragging out. Tauchman snagged the team’s final roster spot, much to Tyler Wade’s chagrin. As a 28 year-old yet to shed the Quad-A star reputation, the deal was a tad surprising. Tyler Wade had all but made the roster, and if the Yankees wanted to go off the 40-man for a true outfielder, they could have gone with non-roster invitee Billy Burns. Instead, they turned to the Rockies in order to get Tauchman.

Tauchman has “Voit-like” qualities. In other words, the Yankees think the outfielder could be a diamond in the rough, just like Luke Voit was last summer. As a left-handed hitter with modest power numbers in the minors, it’s not difficult to envision why the Yankees might like Tauchman.

The former tenth rounder has spent three full seasons with Albuquerque, Colorado’s Tripe-A affiliate. That team is part of the batter-tilted Pacific Coast League. Nonetheless, Tauchman’s statistics are impressive even with the PCL boost. In 1,473 plate appearances, he recorded a 126 wRC+. The combination of contact, discipline, and decent power propelled Tauchman to that comfortably above average all-in number. Still, he couldn’t replicate that performance in his stints with the Rockies. The outfielder got to hit 69 times for the Rockies over the past two seasons and posted a paltry 17 wRC+. Obviously, small sample size and all, the Yankees aren’t writing him off based on his performance in Colorado.

In an era dominated by strikeouts, and with a lineup already featuring a few strikeout prone batters, Tauchman’s bat to ball skill was undoubtedly part of the Yankees’ attraction. His 14.9 percent punchout rate in Triple-A is remarkably low. Further, it’s not like Tauchman makes a bunch of contact by avoiding deep counts. His walk rates have gradually improved in Triple-A, reaching as high as 12.7 percent last season. He sounds a bit like Aaron Hicks, strictly in terms of plate discipline: high contact with patience. Unfortunately, that skillset hasn’t translated to the majors yet. He’s fanned 36.6 percent of the time in limited opportunities.

Decent power is another one of Tauchman’s positives, and it’s fairly new to his game. Prior to 2017, Tauchman had almost no pop. He hit only one home run in 527 plate appearances in his first season at the minors’ highest level. Then, in 2017, that jumped to 16 in 475 (and a .224 ISO). In 2018, he hit 20 in 471 (.248 ISO). Where’d the power come from? He credited Glenallen Hill, his Triple-A manager and former Yankee (great excuse to relive this).

Even though Tauchman has developed some power, there’s still one thing hindering his ability to tap further into his six-foot-two, two hundred pound frame: his propensity to hit grounders. He’s started to minimize that weakness over the last few years, but could still do better. In 2016, 57.5 percent of his batted balls were grounders. The next season, he dropped that mark to 46.7 percent. It fell a bit further to 43.5% last year. In limited time in the majors, he’s really struggled to lift the ball: 28 of 41 balls in play have been hit into the ground.

With few balls in play, there’s not much to glean from Statcast. To no surprise, he has a very low launch angle, which is why he hits the ball into the ground so frequently. I don’t think there’s anything to read into in terms of exit velocity (from what’s publicly available). I’d bet that his minor league Trackman numbers indicate good contact quality, though. And that’s where we can induce why the Yankees view him as potentially the next Voit.

We’ve heard about the launch angle revolution ad nauseam. Teams are hoping to dig up guys who with a swing change can unlock better offensive performance, and this is yet another case of it. Tauchman has already made improvements with Colorado over the past couple years, as evidenced by additional power and lower ground ball rates. Perhaps the Yankees feel that he can take the next step in the Bronx, especially with Hicks and Giancarlo Stanton out.

All told, Tauchman fits the mold of the type of player the Yankees have sought out in recent seasons. The aforementioned Hicks and Voit are other recent examples. Chances are that Tauchman won’t blossom into a significant contributor, but at the same time, the Yankees aren’t counting on him for much more than depth. The easy call would have been to bring Billy Burns north, but instead, the team took a more thoughtful approach. If Tauchman thrives and forces his way into regular playing time, great. Otherwise, it’s not a big deal. The team has enough outfield depth (when healthy) to stash Tauchman in the minors.

Like many others, I’ve been highly critical of the Yankees roster construction this offseason. Putting the past aside, Tauchman is an intriguing acquisition. At worst, he’s a decent up-and-down outfielder when needed this year. Once Stanton and Hicks return, Tauchman won’t be needed in the Bronx (barring future injury). At the same time, he appears to have some untapped potential that the Yankees have been good at snuffing out.

The Five Most Memorable Games of the RAB Era

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(Presswire)

In two weeks and six days, RAB will close its internet doors after more than 12 years covering the Yankees. I am bummed we won’t get to cover another World Series, or CC Sabathia’s final season, but we were around for one championship and almost all of Sabathia’s time in pinstripes, and that’s pretty cool. Lots of blogs never got to experience a title or a player as awesome and lovable as CC.

When it’s all said and done the RAB era will have covered 2,034 regular season and postseason Yankees games, assuming no rainouts the next 20 days. Turns out Game 161 last season, the game in which the Yankees broke the single-season home run record, was the 2,000th game of the RAB era. Fitting, given my unabashed love of dingers. Twelve years is an eternity in the blog game. Doing the math and seeing RAB has been around for over 2,000 meaningful games really drove home the point for me. We’ve been at this a long time.

Naturally, some of those 2,034 games are more memorable than others, and for different reasons. Maybe the game itself was exciting. Or maybe you were at the ballpark with a friend or family member, and it was just a great all around day. Whatever the reason, baseball is pretty great, and the Yankees have spoiled us with many awesome games the last 12 years. Even the bad years (2008, 2013, 2004, 2016) weren’t that bad. RAB has never seen the Yankees win fewer than 84 games. Could be worse.

What follows is my personal ranking of the five most memorable Yankees games of the RAB era. This is not intended to be a “correct” ranking. It’s my personal list and everyone’s personal list will be different. For whatever reason, these are the games that most stick out to me from the last 12+ seasons.

5. Sept. 1st, 2011: Jesus Montero’s Debut

(box score) (RAB recap)

Kinda random, I know, but this game has always stuck out to me. For starters, it was Montero’s debut, and he was supposed to be the next great Yankee. Remember his two-homer game against Jim Johnson and the Orioles? That was so cool. Alas, things didn’t work out the way everyone hoped. Montero was traded after the season and eventually ate his way out of the big leagues. He turns 30 (!) in November and hit .273/.349/.382 in the Mexican League last year.

Secondly, this was a really important game! Yankees vs. Red Sox at Fenway Park, separated by one game in the standings atop the AL East. Montero did nothing in his MLB debut (0-for-4 with a strikeout and a hit-by-pitch), but Andruw Jones worked a 14-pitch walk against Al Aceves in the seventh inning, setting up Russell Martin for the go-ahead double. Mariano Rivera struck out Adrian Gonzalez with the bases loaded to end it. Good ol’ fashioned “this game is gonna make me puke!” baseball at Fenway.

4. Sept. 21st, 2008: The Final Game at the Old Yankee Stadium

(box score) (RAB recap)

The game itself was unremarkable. I remember Andy Pettitte started, Mariano Rivera closed, and Jose Molina hit the final home run. The box score tells me Johnny Damon also hit a home run, Hideki Matsui batted eighth (?!?), and someone named Chris Waters started for the Orioles. Imagine being an up-and-down arm for the 93-loss Orioles in 2008, and it just so happens you line up to start the final game at Yankee Stadium. Wild.

This game stands out more because of what happened afterward — there was Derek Jeter’s speech, and I specifically remember telling a friend it felt like the Yankees won the World Series while the team made their lap around the warning track — and because it marked the closing of the ballpark I grew up in. It was a sad day. The new Yankee Stadium is pretty cool (yay modern amenities!), but the old Yankee Stadium had an irreplaceable charm. I’m man enough to admit I teared up during all the postgame ceremonies. Over a building!

3. Nov. 4th, 2009: World Series Game Six

(box score) (RAB recap)

Surely no one expected the 2009 World Series to not land in here somewhere, right? The entire 2009 postseason run had some very memorable moments. There’s the Alex Rodriguez game-tying home run against Joe Nathan in ALDS Game Two, A.J. Burnett coming up huge in World Series Game Two, and Johnny Damon’s double steal in World Series Game Four. It was a fun few weeks, no doubt.

Game Six was both a great baseball game and the World Series clincher. I remember thinking the series was over as soon as Hideki Matsui hit that home run against Pedro Martinez. Kinda foolish, I know, but I was feeling really good about things as soon as the Yankees took the lead. Matsui drove in six runs in the game, Damaso Marte struck out peak Chase Utley and Ryan Howard on six pitches in the late innings, and of course Mariano Rivera closed it out with a five-out save.

Fun fact: Damon got hurt in this game. I think it was a hamstring? Melky Cabrera got injured earlier in the series as well. When Rivera got Shane Victorino to ground out to second to end the series, the outfield from left-to-right was utility man Jerry Hairston Jr., unproven rookie Brett Gardner, and regular right fielder Nick Swisher. The Yankees would’ve had some outfield issues had the series gone seven games. Anyway, I’d rank the five World Series of lifetime like so:

  1. 1996
  2. 2009
  3. 2000
  4. 1998
  5. 1999

The 1996 World Series was the first title I saw and I’ll never forget it. Especially since baseball crushed my soul for the first time the previous year. The 2009 World Series is special because it had been so long since the last championship. I was young and naive in the late-1990s/early-2000s. I started to take winning titles for granted around 1999 and 2000. The 2000 World Series was special because of the Subway Series though. That was really cool, especially coming from a family of (mostly) Mets fans. I’d love to see another Subway (World) Series at some point. It would be crazy fun.

2. Oct. 3rd, 2017: AL Wild Card Game

(box score) (RAB recap)

Say what you want about the fairness or unfairness of the one-and-done Wild Card Game, but wow does it make for great baseball theater. It is Game Seven without the hassle of Games One through Six. I don’t think the winner-take-all aspect is particularly fair in a sport that is about marathons, not sprints, but it does well for MLB (ratings, buzz, etc.), so I don’t think the format is changing anytime soon. It is what it is.

The 2017 Wild Card Game packed a lot into nine innings. A lot of action and a lot of emotions. There was the shock and sense of dread after the Twins jumped on Luis Severino for three runs in the first inning. The euphoria of the Didi Gregorius game-tying home run. Brett Gardner pimping a home run. David Robertson throwing 3.1 innings and 52 pitches. Something happened every inning and all while the season was on the line. It was … intense.

Perhaps recency bias is playing a role here and I’ll look back in a few years and wonder why I have this game so high on my personal list. That said, the 2017 season was the start of a new era of Yankees baseball, and the Wild Card Game was the first time we saw this team in action in October. If the Yankees score six runs in the first and run away with it, this game doesn’t make the list. They had to make a big comeback though, and the game was very exciting, plus the Yankees were a young up-and-coming club for the first time since 1996. It was a lot of fun and it’s going to stick with me for a while.

1. The Farewells

Okay, I’m cheating, because my personal most memorable game of the RAB era is not one game. It was a series of farewell games. Four, specifically. Here’s the list, chronologically:

Pettitte’s farewell was kinda weird because he retired once already, and even though it seemed like he was ready to hang ’em up for good in 2013, no one really knew. That little bit of doubt existed. Also, what is widely remembered for being Jeter’s farewell game was not actually his final game. You of course remember the walk-off single …

… but the Yankees still had a three-game series in Boston after that. Jeter went 2-for-4 in that series and he walked off the field for the final time following a third inning infield single at Fenway Park. I’ll remember the A-Rod farewell game for two things. One, it started raining during the pregame ceremony (only A-Rod), and two, he returned to third base for one batter at the end of the game. That was pretty cool.

Jeter’s walk-off hit was an incredible storybook ending and Pettitte going out with a complete game was awesome. For me, Rivera’s farewell is the most memorable. Jeter and Pettitte going to the mound to take him out was an all-time great moment, and seeing Rivera bawl his eyes out while hugging Pettitte was very emotional. I always saw Rivera as this larger than life baseball god who never got rattled by anything, yet there he was breaking down in Pettitte’s arms. I will never ever forget it.

* * *

Trimming this down to five games was not easy and, honestly, ask me this again in a month and I might give you a different order or even different games. Here are other RAB era games that stand out to me (listed chronologically):

I did not realize Jeter’s 3,000th hit game and the Sabathia vs. Shields duel were on back-to-back days! I had a 20-game ticket package in 2007 and it felt like I saw A-Rod hit 30 home runs in those 20 games, including that walk-off grand slam against Ray. What a monster season that was. With all due respect to 2017 Aaron Judge and various Robinson Cano seasons, 2007 A-Rod was the best player of the RAB era. Hands down.

Personally, I’ll always remember the Johnny Damon and Mark Teixeira back-to-back homers against Daniel Bard as the moment the 2009 Yankees first felt special. That team was obviously very good, but those homers capped off a four-game sweep of the Red Sox, at which point the Yankees asserted themselves as baseball’s dominant team. Turn your speakers up:

Man that was fun. Similarly, Didi’s first home run against Corey Kluber in ALDS Game Five two years ago was the first time I truly believed the Yankees had a chance to complete the comeback. After going down 0-2 in the series, I just kinda assumed it was over. The Indians were insanely good that year. Instead, the Yankees won Games Three and Four, then Gregorius sent a first inning message in Game Five. It was awesome.

We may not have gotten four World Series in five years, but I feel fortunate RAB existed these last 12 seasons. Again, even the bad years weren’t that bad. We saw a World Series title, more than a few generational players come through town, and the Yankees go through a rebuild transition that resulted in one of the best cores in the game. There were many memorable games and moments along the way. More than I could ever fit into one post. The games above are my personal favorites.

Why Yankees-Astros hasn’t turned into a full-fledged rivalry

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Goliath and his friend, David. (Getty Images)

Two years ago, the Astros visited the Bronx for an exciting four-game, regular-season series which led to my guess that Yankees-Astros was the next great MLB rivalry (outside of Yankees-Red Sox, of course).

Since that article, the two teams have played a seven-game ALCS and two hard-fought, regular-season series going into this week. They’ve been must-watch games in the sense that any game between two of the best teams in the league are must-watch.

But has this become a rivalry in a real sense?

There are a few criteria which are hallmarks for a rivalry: Close postseason matchups, marquee players that are villainized on the other side, proximity or enough in-season matchups, sustained success for both franchises concurrently and, finally, the intangible hatred born out of nothing in particular.

The Yankees and Astros have the first criteria down pat thus far. The two teams were pitted against one another in the postseason twice, once in the winner-take-all 2015 Wild Card Game and a second time in the 2017 ALCS, both going the Astros’ way. In 2017, Games 2 and 4 were classics and Game 7 was close into the middle innings.

With a weak American League field, the chance of another New York-Houston showdown is high. Say what you want about the Mariners’ 10-2 start, but the Astros are an overwhelming favorite to win their division for at least the next two seasons. The Yankees have to contend with the Red Sox and Rays in the East, but they’re still highly likely to make the postseason, which either pits them directly against Houston or forces each team to win a series to meet in the ALCS. Not guaranteed, but easy to imagine.

Marquee players, each team has more than enough. Aaron Judge may be the face of baseball while Jose Altuve and Justin Verlander are veritable stars themselves. Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa and Gerrit Cole are also top-tier talents. Giancarlo Stanton had the largest contract in baseball until a month ago while Gleyber Torres and Gary Sanchez are on the cusp of becoming household names.

When I wrote this the first time, I thought Dallas Keuchel could play the villain for New York. He’d dominated the Yankees time and time again, including in the Wild Card Game, and he provided a nemesis, albeit without the charisma of Pedro Martinez.

With Keuchel a free agent and unlikely to come back to Houston, there are two candidates coming to mind: Bregman and Verlander. Bregman has the confidence of a superstar and isn’t afraid to let anyone know. He hadn’t quite hit the spotlight in 2017, but he owns it now, likely surpassing Correa. When it comes to the Yankees, it’s not hard to imagine him failing to hold his tongue when saying he thinks Houston is better.

Verlander goes without saying. He was the 2017 ALCS MVP and his first taste of the postseason was helping to eliminate the Yankees in 2006. The future Hall of Famer is now locked into Houston through 2021 and though he’ll be 38 that season, he still possesses top-of-the-rotation talent. He holds a certain amount of real estate in Yankee fans’ heads.

The regular season matchups between the two clubs have been consistently close and entertaining in recent seasons. The teams, however, are limited to a maximum of seven regular-season contests, as opposed to the 19 times of a division opponent. That’s a dozen fewer times to create familiarity and contempt, to find two teams pointing fingers and throwing hands in a brawl gone viral.

As for that intangible, there was the Judge-Altuve MVP battle of 2017 that caused some consternation on each side. The photo of them, adorning this article up top, from the 2017 season is a lasting image superimposing the extremes of baseball stardom, though it hasn’t translated into a linkage of the two teams.

Still, the Yankees and Astros remain on a collision course for the next few years. Predicting beyond the next five is a pointless exercise, so you can even say for the foreseeable future. Each team knows the other stands in the way of their World Series goals, thus heightening their matchups.

Is all of that good enough for a rivalry? Right now, no, just a handful of entertaining games a season. Houston may be the Yankees’ second or third-biggest rival for a title, but fans aren’t adding curse words to the opposition’s middle names. There just hasn’t been that intangible. As a Yankee fan, you know in your bones you hate the Red Sox and can even churn up some feelings for the Orioles, Blue Jays or Rays during a period of sustained success.

But that visceral feelings don’t extend to the Astros. Not yet at least. Until the teams have created some true dislike or have played another long playoff series, they’re not rivals, just strong competitors. Yankees-Red Sox will have to do for now.

Astros 4, Yankees 3: Bullpen wastes Masahiro Tanaka’s gem

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In a game in which pretty much everything went according to plan, the bullpen sent the Yankees home with a loss Monday night. Masahiro Tanaka outpitched Justin Verlander, the offense scratched out enough runs, and the high-priced bullpen additions couldn’t make a two-run lead stand up. Blah. The Yankees dropped to 5-5 on the season with a 4-3 loss in the series opener in Houston.

(Bob Levey/Getty)

Three Against Verlander
For the first time since June 19th, 2015, the Yankees scored more than one run against Justin Verlander. He’d allowed three runs in his previous five starts and 37.1 innings against New York, postseason included. Three runs in 37.1 innings and then three runs in six innings Monday night. The Yankees made Verlander throw 111 pitches in those six innings too. I didn’t expect him to throw that many this early in the season.

The Yankees scored three runs in three different ways against Verlander. They built an extended rally to get on the board in the third inning. No. 9 hitter Gio Urshela started it with a one-out walk. The Yankees put him in motion in a 3-2 count and it worked like a charm. Urshela in motion pulled the infielder to second base and allowed Gardner’s ground ball to sneak through, setting up the first-and-third situation. Some early season numbers on Gardner:

  • Strikeout rate: 10.3% (19th lowest among 187 qualified hitters)
  • Overall contact rate: 90.8% (8th highest)
  • Zone contact rate: 97.9% (4th highest)

Gardner has great contact rates, both this year and historically, so the Yankees trusted him to put the ball in play in the 3-2 count, even against Verlander. Couldn’t have drawn it up any better. Gardner then stole second base, Aaron Judge walked to load the bases, and Luke Voit reached out and punched an elevated fastball to right field to score a run. Gary Sanchez popped up and Gleyber Torres grounded out, so the Yankees didn’t get any more runs that inning, but they got one and pushed Verlander’s pitch count up, and I consider that a win.

In the fifth inning, Judge gave their Yankees their second run with a laser solo home run to right field. Judge was late on the two-strike 95 mph fastball — the YES Network had a great side angle that showed how late Judge was on the pitch — but he muscled it out to right field. Most hitters dump a little single over the first baseman’s head on contact like this, or maybe get it down the line for a double. Judge put it in the seats. Bonkers.

The Yankees scored their third run with a two-out rally. DJ LeMahieu stung a double into the left-center field gap in the sixth inning, and Clint Frazier brought him home with a booming single off the very top of the Crawford Boxes in left field. Maybe six feet away from a home run. One run with an extended rally, one run with a home run, one run with a quick strike two-out rally. Something for everyone.

Master Tanaka
I am certain Masahiro Tanaka is not happy with his outing Monday. He was very good (6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 1 HR), but he also made some mistakes, most notably leaving a splitter up to Jose Altuve in the fourth inning. Altuve hit it off the train tracks in left field for a game-tying solo homer. Tanaka is very hard on himself and he’s a bit of a perfectionist. In an otherwise excellent start, that mistake pitch surely bothered him.

Whereas Verlander started the sixth inning having thrown 94 pitches, Tanaka had thrown only 61 pitches in the first five innings. His pitch count by inning: 16, 11, 10, 16, 8, 18. Tanaka was efficient — he faced 22 hitters and only 12 saw as many as four pitches, and only three saw a three-ball count — despite not having his Grade-A splitter. Look at his splitter locations. These pitches are supposed to be below the zone, not in it:

It wasn’t until the sixth inning that the Astros threatened against Tanaka. Robinson Chirinos doubled to left and George Springer worked a walk, putting runners on first and second with no outs for the 2-3-4 hitters. Scary! A force out at second (Altuve), a fly ball to shallow right (Alex Bregman), and a ground ball to second (Michael Brantley) later, the inning was over. What an escape job to preserve the lead and finish the outing.

Three starts into the season Tanaka is sitting on a 1.47 ERA (2.39 FIP) with good to great strikeout (21.2%), walk (2.8%), and ground ball (57.4%) rates. Remember how poorly he started the last two seasons? That is most certainly not the case this year. Tanaka has been great all three starts, even though he wasn’t razor sharp the last two times out. With Luis Severino likely out a while, Tanaka has stepped into the ace role nicely. It suits him well.

Death By Bullpen
So, anytime Zack Britton wants to go back to being dominant, that’d be cool. He’s looked much more like the guy who first joined the Yankees last season — it seems he can only throw pitches way out of the zone or right down the middle right now — than the excellent end-game arm we saw late last year and most of the last few years in Baltimore. Britton faced five batters Monday and retired two, blowing a 3-1 lead in the seventh.

Aaron Boone went to Britton against the bottom half of the lineup because he was saving Adam Ottavino for all those righties at the top of the lineup, a perfectly sensible move, and it didn’t work because Britton walked the No. 8 hitter (Tyler White) on four pitches with two outs, and allowed a loud double to the No. 9 hitter (Chirinos) to score two runs. Britton has nearly as many baserunners allowed (eight) as swings and misses (nine) this year. Seems bad.

On one hand, bringing in Ottavino to face the righty Chirinos with two outs and two runners on base would’ve made sense. On the other hand, maybe don’t walk the No. 8 hitter on four pitches and get taken to the wall by the No. 9 hitter? It’s okay to blame the players once in a while. Not everything is on the manager. Britton signed the largest free agent reliever contract this winter and he couldn’t protect a two-run lead against the bottom of the lineup. That is no one’s fault but Britton’s.

The Astros took the lead against Ottavino in the dopiest way imaginable. The go-ahead hit itself was dopey, I mean. Walking Bregman was bad (at least he’s good) and Brantley pulling a ground ball through the right side to put runners at first and third with one out was worse. That set Carlos Correa up for the broken bat run-scoring infield single. Look at this:

That is a 92 mph two-seamer right in Correa’s kitchen. It shattered his bat and the dinky little grounder went 22 feet with a 28.9 mph exit velocity. It was hit so slowly that there was no play at any base. Best case is an out at first. The run’s scoring anyway. That’s just dumb luck. What can you do? The walk and single to set that inning up were the bigger problem. The Brantley and Correa singles were the first hits Ottavino has allowed this year.

Leftovers
Frazier looks so confident and dangerous at the plate right now. He’s in total control of his at-bats. He went 2-for-4 and even his outs were encouraging. Clint fouled away two two-strike pitches before striking out on eight pitches in the third, and he lined out to center in a full count in the eighth. Frazier saw 23 pitches in his four at-bats, laid off everything out of the zone, and attacked everything over the plate. He looks great. Awesome to see.

Greg Bird, on the other hand, went 0-for-4 with four strikeouts and is down to .192/.300/.308 (76 wRC+) with a 43.3% strikeout rate and zero baserunning or defensive value. He’s struck out 13 times in 30 plate appearances. Voit has struck out ten times in 46 plate appearances. Whenever Giancarlo Stanton comes back (he seems to be the closed injured guy to returning), Clint stays and Bird goes to Triple-A.

Judge reached base four times (homer, single, two walks) and is hitting .289/.426/.533 (177 wRC+) overall even though it doesn’t feel like he’s really gotten going yet. Singles for Gardner, Voit, and Frazier (two) and a double for LeMahieu. That’s not much offense, but if you come out of a Verlander-Tanaka duel leading 3-1 after six innings, the bullpen has to nail that down. Get well soon, Dellin.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
Go to MLB.com for the box score and video highlights and ESPN for the updated standings. Here’s our Bullpen Workload page and here’s the loss probability graph:


Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
The second game of the three-game series. Jonathan Loaisiga and Gerrit Cole are Tuesday night’s scheduled starters. That is an 8:10pm ET start.

DotF: Garrett Whitlock makes season debut in Trenton’s win

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Baseball America (subs. req’d) listed 24 breakout prospects for 2019. Three are Yankees: OF Antonio Cabello, RHP Deivi Garcia, and OF Everson Pereira. “He’s a strike-thrower with quick arm speed on a low-90s fastball that touches 95 mph and a sharp, tight-spinning curveball that dives underneath the barrels of hitters to help him pile up whiffs,” says the Garcia write-up.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (5-4 loss to Lehigh Valley)

  • DH Mike Ford: 2-4, 1 R, 2 K
  • SS Thairo Estrada: 0-4, 1 K
  • 2B Gosuke Katoh: 2-4, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 K — had been 1-for-11 (.091) in his first three games
  • C Kyle Higashioka: 1-3, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 1 BB
  • RHP Drew Hutchison: 4.2 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 5 BB, 6 K, 2 HR, 4/3 GB/FB — 54 of 94 pitches were strikes (57%)
  • RHP J.P. Feyereisen: 2.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 2/1 GB/FB — 20 of 30 pitches were strikes (67%)
  • RHP Joe Harvey: 1 IP, zeroes, 1/2 GB/FB — six pitches, three strikes

[Read more…]