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Poll: The 2019 RAB Prospect Watch

March 26, 2019 by Mike

Last year’s Prospect Watch prospect. (Presswire)

Every season since RAB debuted a dozen years ago, we’ve hosted the annual Prospect Watch in our sidebar. We simply pick a prospect and track his statistical progress throughout the season. Nothing too exciting but hey, it adds a fun little element to prospect tracking. It’s almost like a fantasy team where you’re rooting for the guy to succeed so the Prospect Watch looks pretty.

The so-called Prospect Watch Curse reared its ugly head when Estevan Florial, last year’s Prospect Watch prospect and a prime candidate for this year’s Prospect Watch, broke his wrist (in two places!) crashing into the wall two weeks ago. Florial also missed time with a wrist injury last year. The year before Gleyber Torres went down with Tommy John surgery. But hey, Aaron Judge was in the Prospect Watch one year and he’s pretty awesome. Also, I don’t believe in curses, so the Prospect Watch lives on.

Back in the day I picked the Prospect Watch prospect myself and that was that. A few years ago I decided to open it up to a reader vote because you folks should have a say. I am, however, making the executive decision to remove Florial from this year’s eligible prospect pool. Why? Because Florial’s already hurt and will miss a few weeks, and it’s always boring when the Prospect Watch sits dormant for a few weeks. We’ve been through it enough times over the years.

Although the farm system is not as strong as it was the last few years, the Yankees have a really good prospect base, with several prospects worthy of the Prospect Watch. Some years the Prospect Watch prospect is pretty obvious, like two years ago with Gleyber. This year? Not so much. This might be our most wide open voting yet. Here are this year’s Prospect Watch candidates, listed alphabetically, with my top 30 ranking.

RHP Albert Abreu (Preseason No. 8 prospect)

The case for Abreu: In terms of ceiling and stuff, Abreu is on the short list of the best prospects in the farm system. He’s mid-to-upper-90s with his fastball and has the deepest arsenal of secondary pitches among the Yankees’ best pitching prospects. Abreu has a knockout curveball as well as a quality changeup and slider. The potential is there for lots of strikeouts and a quick move up to Double-A, which is always fun.

The case against Abreu: Injuries. Abreu has been hurt a lot the last two years. Lat and multiple elbow issues have limited him to 173.2 innings the last two years. As talented as he is and as high as his ceiling appears to be, the chances that Abreu will get hurt and leave the Prospect Watch silent for weeks on end are uncomfortably high.

OF Antonio Cabello (Preseason No. 5 prospect)

The case for Cabello: Few players in the system were as dominant as Cabello last season, statistically. He hit .308/.427/.522 (168 wRC+) with five homers in 46 rookie ball games, and, after the season, Baseball America (subs. req’d) compared him to Juan Soto and Vlad Guerrero Jr. at the same age for his innate hitting ability. Cabello has exciting potential and a high ceiling, and he’s already produced in games, which is a plus for Prospect Watch purposes.

The case against Cabello: Cabello dislocated his shoulder diving for a ball at the end of last season and needed offseason surgery. He is healthy now and playing in minor league Spring Training games, though there’s always some concern about an injury like that hindering a player’s performance in the short-term. Also, Cabello is still only 18. An 18-year-old kid coming back from shoulder surgery is a prime candidate to spend a few weeks in Extended Spring Training, which means no stats to track. The Prospect Watch could be quiet for a while.

RHP Roansy Contreras (Preseason No. 7 prospect)

The case for Contreras: Contreras is my favorite pitching prospect in the system right now. He’s an advanced 19-year-old who so thoroughly dominated college-aged kids with Short Season Staten Island last year that the Yankees had to move him up to Low-A Charleston to give him a challenge. The end result was a 2.42 ERA (3.70 FIP) with 24.0% strikeouts in 63.1 innings in the low minors. Contreras has a quality three-pitch mix and very good pitching know-how. Even as a teenager, he has the potential to carve up hitters in the low minors.

The case against Contreras: As with every pitching prospect, the potential for injury exists. That’s just the way it is. Contreras has been healthy to date, but you never really know with pitchers. Also, Contreras was good but not great after the promotion to Low-A Charleston last season (3.38 ERA and 4.48 FIP), so perhaps we should pump the brakes on him being ready to manhandle lower minors hitters even with his stuff and pitching acumen.

RHP Deivi Garcia (Preseason No. 6 prospect)

The case for Garcia: Garcia was one of the most dominant pitchers in the minors last season. He reached Double-A as a 19-year-old and finished with a 2.55 ERA (2.60 FIP) and a 35.5% strikeout rate. Last year 907 pitchers threw at least 70 innings in the minors and Garcia had the fifth highest strikeout rate and the fourth highest K-BB% (28.7%). The fastball is very good, the curveball is excellent, and the changeup is a quality pitch too. Garcia has the stuff and, as of last year, the control to put up similar numbers going forward.

The case against Garcia: Other than the inherent injury risk, the only real question with Garcia is whether he can maintain last year’s walk rate. He had a 12.0% walk rate from 2016-17 before cutting it to 6.8% in 2018. A pitcher filling up the Prospect Watch with walks is no fun. Garcia will be on some sort of innings limit this summer after throwing 74 innings last year, so I suppose that means he could be shut down at some point to manage his workload, which would put a damper on the Prospect Watch. I don’t think that’s a big concern though.

RHP Jonathan Loaisiga (Preseason No. 2 prospect)

The case for Loaisiga: The top pitching prospect in the organization, Loaisiga’s combination of pure stuff and control is the best in the system. He’s mid-90s with his fastball, occasionally higher, and both his breaking ball and changeup are putaway pitches on their best days. Since returning from Tommy John surgery two years ago, his minor league performance has never been anything short of excellent. Loaisiga is probably the safest bet in the system to have a strong statistical season in the minors, at least among pitchers.

The case against Loaisiga: Injuries. Gosh, the injuries. Loaisiga has thrown 184.1 innings in six pro seasons and last year’s 80.2 innings were a career high. He has a history of shoulder and elbow trouble — Loaisiga missed about a month with a shoulder issue last year after being sent down — and that’s always scary. The other thing is Loaisiga will probably shuttle between Triple-A and MLB this year, which could lead to sporadic playing time and thus infrequent Prospect Watch updates. That’s no fun.

OF Everson Pereira (Preseason No. 4 prospect)

The case for Pereira: There’s a decent chance Pereira will be the No. 1 prospect in the farm system at this time next year. The soon-to-be 18-year-old is loaded with tools and instincts, and, thanks to a growth spurt soon after signing, he now has pretty good power potential. Power always looks good in the Prospect Watch. Pereira has high-end offensive tools with a chance to really fill up the stat sheet. Hit for average, hit for power, get on base, the works.

The case against Pereira: Despite those tools, Pereira had an underwhelming statistical season in the rookie ball last year, hitting .263/.322/.389 (88 wRC+) with three homers and a 32.8% strikeout rate. The athleticism and innate hitting ability have not yet translated to on-field production in his brief pro career. And, similar to Cabello, there’s a chance Pereira will begin the season back in Extended Spring Training only because he’s so young (17!). Extended Spring Training means no stats to track for a few weeks, and that’s lame.

RHP Clarke Schmidt (Preseason No. 12 prospect)

The case for Schmidt: Schmidt, a first round pick two years ago, completed his Tommy John surgery rehab and pitched well during his pro debut last year, posting a 3.09 ERA (2.61 FIP) with 33.0% strikeouts in an admittedly tiny sample in the lower levels. Most importantly, Schmidt’s stuff reportedly rebounded nicely post-surgery, putting him in position to have a breakout season in 2018. He’s healthy and the Yankees are set to turn him loose in 2019.

The case against Schmidt: Tommy John surgery is not Schmidt’s only injury as a pro. His season ended prematurely last year due to an oblique issue, so we don’t know whether he can make it through a full season healthy. Unlike most 23-year-old pitching prospects, we have no idea what sorta numbers Schmidt might put up when healthy. For all intents and purposes, he is a complete unknown. Consider him a blind roll of the dice with the Prospect Watch.

C Anthony Seigler (Preseason No. 3 prospect)

The case for Seigler: Last year’s first round pick had a strong pro debut, hitting .266/.379/.342 (108 wRC+) with more walks (14.7%) than strikeouts (12.6%) in 24 rookie ball games. He’s a switch-hitter with very good hitting ability from both sides of the plate, and while he probably won’t wow us with huge power numbers, Seigler has the potential to post a strong batting average and on-base percentage, with few strikeouts. Few prospects in the system are as well-rounded.

The case against Seigler: A few things. One, Seigler is not a big power hitter and that could leave the Prospect Watch lacking that “wow” factor. Two, much of what makes Seigler such a strong prospect isn’t available in a box score. He’s a very advanced catcher for his age and is regarded as a strong leader, two things that won’t show up in the Prospect Watch. And three, he’s hurt! Seigler will miss the start of the regular season with a quad injury. It’s said to be a minor injury, though it is going to keep him out a bit. And, because he’s only 19, an assignment to Extended Spring Training is possible. As good as he is, Seigler is not really a “made for the Prospect Watch” prospect, at least not right now.

* * *

Mike King (preseason No. 9 prospect) would’ve been a prime Prospect Watch candidate had he not suffered a stress reaction in his elbow early in Spring Training. He’s not expected to return to game action until May. Luis Medina (No. 10) is way too control-challenged for the Prospect Watch. Others like Trevor Stephan (No. 13) and Nick Nelson (No. 15) lag behind younger arms with more upside like Garcia and Contreras.

The Yankees open the regular season this Thursday, but the minor league regular season does not begin until next Thursday. The Prospect Watch voting is open now (duh) and I’ll close it sometime this Friday morning, then announce the winner soon thereafter. Given the Prospect Watch Curse, can we even call whoever it is the winner? Maybe Aaron Judge was just powerful for the Prospect Watch Curse. Anyway, time for the poll.

Who should be on the 2019 Prospect Watch?

Year Two with Aaron Boone and his Coaching Staff [2019 Season Preview]

March 26, 2019 by Mike

Overall, Aaron Boone’s first season as Yankees manager was a success. The ending was disappointing, there’s no doubt about that, but the club won 100 games despite injuries (Aaron Judge) and unforeseen performance issues (Gary Sanchez), and the Yankees seamlessly broke in high-end youngsters like Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres. I think we all would’ve signed up for that at this time last year.

Boone’s on-field managerial style was very similar to Joe Girardi’s. He built his lineups the same way, meaning he sandwiched a lefty between his big righty bats (or vice versa) even though the off-hand player’s production suggested it wasn’t the best idea. He employed set bullpen roles and also rested his players on a schedule no matter what they did the day before. Everything we complained about with Boone we also complained about with Girardi.

Brian Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner indicated the managerial change was made for communication reasons and, as outsiders, there’s really no way we can evaluate that. Boone is much better with the media than Girardi, which is not nothing, but it’s not what Cashman and Hal meant by communication either. They meant the behind the scenes work, including digesting and disseminating information provided by the front office.

As the Yankees prepare to begin the 2019 regular season, Boone no longer qualifies as a rookie manager but he’s not a grizzled veteran either. At the very least, nothing will be new to him. He’d been through Spring Training already, been through the grind of the regular season, and been through the postseason as well. Last year was the first time for everything. That isn’t the case now. Let’s preview the upcoming season to come in the dugout.

The Second Year Manager

The last time we saw the Yankees and Boone, he mismanaged the bullpen and the pitching staff in general to an embarrassing ALDS defeat. Starters were repeatedly left in too long and relievers were brought into situations that did not match their skill sets (Lance Lynn with the bases loaded and no outs? really???). There’s a pretty good chance the Yankees lose the ALDS anyway even with perfect managerial moves, but Boone was no help, and his moves left a real bad taste in everyone’s mouth.

“I hate to be too generic, but everything,” said Boone at the Winter Meetings when asked what he wants to do better going forward. “And I don’t know it’s so much self-evaluating as you go through the winter, every day is an evaluation. Every day you come in during the season, whether you won, whether you lost, whether a move worked out, you know, a decision made, hopefully you’re always taking stock of those things and evaluating, and putting into your experience and learning from it.”

Learning from those ALDS mistakes is imperative. We just won’t know whether it actually happened for a few months. Managing the pitching staff during the regular season is way different than managing the pitching staff during the postseason. Quick hooks and heavy bullpen usage works in October but not April through September. That’s a good way to burn everyone out during the summer. The regular season is a marathon, the postseason is a sprint, and they require different managerial styles.

“I think at times some of the (unpredictable) things that come across the desk almost on a daily basis, from minor things to things that are more serious, and how you handle those,” said Boone when asked what the biggest challenge was last season. “You never know how you’re going to handle those. And that’s a challenge. You’re never totally prepared, I guess, for all the different things that do come across on a daily basis. So I would say that’s the biggest challenge, the unknown of what’s around the corner … Things come up all the time that you’ve got to deal with in real time. That’s a challenge.”

I thought Boone was very good during the regular season. His on-field moves were almost indistinguishable from Girardi’s. They were so similar that I have to believe the front office has a lot of input into the day-to-day decisions. In the postseason though, Boone’s perceived inability to read the situation and react accordingly was impossible to ignore. It could be a learning experience and he’ll be better going forward, or it could be a sign his feel for the game is questionable.

As best I can tell, the players love Boone and the front office loves the way he and his coaches take the information they’re given and put it into practice. That was Girardi’s problem, apparently. With Boone, it seems everything went well in year one, and I bet things will go even better in year two now that he has some experience. What happens in the postseason? Who knows. That is a long way off, and yet it seems to be the only thing on everyone’s mind.

“As I sit here today, basically a little bit over a year after I was hired, and being at the Winter Meetings, last year I was learning people in the room’s names and what they did, and what are their values, who are they, how does this all work, who’s got a loud voice in the room, those kind of things. I have relationships with all these people now,” Boone added. “So hopefully I’m so much ahead of the game from where I was last year and hopefully we hit the ground running.”

The Same Ol’ Coaching Staff

Rothschild dresses like me when I go to the corner to get a bagel and coffee. (Presswire)

For only the second time in the last six offseasons, the Yankees did not make a single change to their coaching staff over the winter. Larry Rothschild returns for his ninth season as pitching coach, Mike Harkey is back for his fourth straight year (and tenth overall) as bullpen coach, and everyone else is back for year two. That includes bench coach Josh Bard, first base coach Reggie Willits, third base coach Phil Nevin, hitting coach Marcus Thames, assistant hitting coach P.J. Pilittere, and quality control/infield coach Carlos Mendoza.

There’s no good way to preview a coaching staff so I’m going to list some scattered thoughts instead. One, I’m curious to see what the Yankees and Rothschild have planned for James Paxton. He has a great fastball and he uses it a lot, but his curveball and cutter are pretty good too, so it seems like the potential for improvement with better pitch selection exists. The Mariners have no idea what they’re doing and I’m certain the Yankees acquired Paxton with the idea that they can help him be even better going forward. (Similarly, are any adjustments in the cards for J.A. Happ as he gets up there in age, especially if his fastball continues to lose spin?)

Two, will Nevin be any more aggressive or conservative sending runners? The Yankees were almost perfectly average across the board last year in terms of sending runners home. On one hand, you could argue Nevin should be more conservative going forward because the Yankees have so much power that they shouldn’t risk baserunners. On the other hand, there are bound to be times increased aggression would be worthwhile. It really depends on the situation. I think we might see runners held at tad more going forward.

And three, how much will the defense improve? Specifically Miguel Andujar at third base and Giancarlo Stanton in left field. Mendoza and Andujar work tirelessly on his third base defense. Stanton was much better in left as the season went on but there’s some room for improvement there. Giancarlo in left is a project for Willits. Ultimately, it’s up to the player to improve. Coaching only goes so far. That said, the coaches get praise and receive blame, so Andujar and Stanton will reflect on Mendoza and Willits.

It is basically impossible to evaluate coaches from the outside, so we wind up projecting player performance on to the coaching staff. Talent is the single most important thing and the Yankees have lots of it. They’re going to make the coaches look good. Boone could’ve used his talent better in the postseason last year, and I’m sure there are ways Rothschild, Thames, and the other coaches could help their players get more out of their ability. Seeing how (or if) it happens is part of the fun.

At the risk of looking foolish, some optimistic spring training performance takeaways

March 26, 2019 by Derek Albin

Spring training is in the books and opening day is just days away. The slate has been wiped clean and all camp performances, good or bad, get a reset. By now, we all know better than to make strong declarations based on Grapefruit League statistics. It sure is fun to do, though. And hey, what’s my risk of interpreting how certain players performed? I can live with looking silly.

A handful of Yankees had intriguing numbers over the last month or so. We won’t know how significant those until later in the regular season, but I think we can make meaningful observations from some of the results.

Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton will strike out less

Both Judge and Stanton struck out about 30 percent of the time last season. If Grapefruit League play is any indicator, the duo will put the ball in play more often this year. Stanton fanned in 22.9 percent of plate appearances while Judge went down on strikes 26.7 percent of the time. Of course, neither accrued more than 48 plate appearances, so make of it what you will.

Despite the small sample, we do know that Judge has been trying to cut down on whiffs in camp. With two strikes, he’s eschewed his leg kick for a subtle toe tap. It’s seemingly worked out well thus far. Why can’t it continue to work in the regular season?

As for Stanton, there isn’t a discernible adjustment. At least, not one that I’m aware of. Nonetheless, he is just a season removed from the 23.6 percent rate he posted in his final season with Miami. Last year could have been a blip. As his spring training performance shows, this is who he is at his best.

Clint Frazier has some rust to shake off

This statement isn’t out on a limb, unlike the strikeout talk from the prior section. Frazier hit .149/.228/.245 in 57 plate appearances. He had the most opportunities out of anyone in camp, and understandably so. With much of last season lost due concussion recovery, it’s been a long time since Clint has been at full strength. Now that he’s finally cleared, there are some cobwebs for him to shake off.

It’s tough luck that Frazier still needs more time to get on track. Obviously, his health problems were the biggest misfortune of all. Pretty scary, in particular. But also, he’s missing an opportunity to grab a job from the outset of the season because Aaron Hicks is down for the count. He should still get an opportunity later this year, but he’ll have to wait.

Greg Bird is (finally) healthy

Fool me once, fool me twice, fool me…thrice? To be honest, I’m not sure how many times I have gotten excited about Bird at this point, only to be inevitably let down. Nonetheless, it’s hard not to read into his spring training numbers and not think he’s healthy. The Yankees gave him 54 trips to the plate in camp and he capitalized with a 1.091 OPS. Can’t I get a little excited?

Oh, but that elbow of his. He was hit there by a pitch last week. Here we go again, right? Well, it seems like he’s going to be fine, for now. I get the skepticism with Bird, but I’m ready to dive back in and believe. I think it’s easier this time because he’s the underdog to Luke Voit, and if Bird does indeed flame out again, the Yankees should be fine at the position anyway.

Tommy Kahnle is back

It’s always good to draw conclusions from seven and a third innings pitched. In that workload, Kahnle struck out nine and allowed only one earned run. His velocity appears to be back and not only is he healthy, but he’s also in far better shape than before. The way he took care of his body before this season was…something.

It’s going to be a huge plus to have a revitalized Kahnle with Dellin Betances on the shelf to start the year. It looks Kahnle’s 2017-self, minus all of the caffeine and junk food, is back and here to stay.

Stephen Tarpley is for real

The 26-year-old southpaw was named the team’s best rookie in camp, and deservedly so. He allowed no runs, one walk, and six hits in just over 11 innings of work this spring (before last night), which earned him a spot on the opening day roster. Tarpley already began to emerge as an intriguing relief prospect last season and did a nice job in a late summer cameo with the Bombers.

Tarpley is in line to be this year’s Jonathan Holder. He may ride the Scranton shuttle a couple of times early on, but more likely than not, he’s ready to carve out a role in the big leagues for good. His spring training was just a confirmation of his capabilities.

March 25th Spring Training Notes: Andujar, Severino, Dellin

March 25, 2019 by Mike

The next time the Yankees play, the game will count. The rain held off and the Yankees dropped their exhibition finale to the Nationals in Washington tonight. Troy Tulowitzki hit a home run and Greg Bird drove in a run with a Juan Soto-aided double. Soto got all turned around and the ball landed behind him. Brett Gardner had a double down the line. Lots of quick at-bats tonight. Everyone was ready to get on the plane to New York.

Stephen Tarpley waited until final spring outing to allow a run. He gave up a two-run homer to Anthony Rendon. Zack Britton retired both batters he faced and Adam Ottavino struck out one in a 1-2-3 inning. He’s a video game. His stuff moves all over the place. Nestor Cortes allowed a run in 3.1 workmanlike innings. Here are the box score and video highlights, and here are the notes from the last day of camp:

Miguel Andujar took a pitch to the ribs tonight, just below the armpit. He lifted his arms to jump out of the way and the ball deflected off his elbow guard and into his ribs. Kinda weird. Andujar was in obvious pain but remained in the game, and Aaron Boone said he’s fine following the game, so there you go. Another injury would’ve been just swell. [Kristie Ackert]
Dellin Betances (shoulder) played catch today for the first time since being shut down, and everything went well. Luis Severino (shoulder) stretched out his throwing from 90 feet to 120 feet today. I thought today would be a rest day after Severino played catch the last two days, but nope. CC Sabathia (shoulder) has a bullpen session tomorrow. [James Wagner, Coley Harvey]
Aaron Boone didn’t feel the need to talk to Tyler Wade after he said he was “blindsided” by not making the roster. “Guys are allowed to be upset … I get the frustration and that’s okay. The thing I’ll be looking for is, what’s his response?,” said Boone. [Coley Harvey, Pete Caldera]
The Orioles officially scratched Alex Cobb (groin) from their Opening Day start. It’ll be Masahiro Tanaka vs. Andrew Cashner on Thursday. The O’s haven’t set their rotation after Cashner. I have to think the Yankees will see Dylan Bundy at some point this weekend. [Roch Kubatko]

Spring Training is officially over. Thank goodness for that. The Yankees went 17-10-4 with one rainout and a +39 run differential in their 32 exhibition games. Up next: Opening Day. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm ET on Thursday, and I imagine the pregame introductions will begin around 12:30pm ET or so. Tanaka vs. Cashner. Game One of 162. Let’s do this.

Spring Training Game Thread: The Final Exhibition Game

March 25, 2019 by Mike

Spring Training is over, folks. The Yankees wrap up their exhibition schedule tonight at Nationals Park, so, for the first time this year, they’re going to play in a big league ballpark. That is pretty cool. After tonight’s game the Yankees will enjoy off-days Tuesday and Wednesday, then open the 2019 regular season against the Orioles on Thursday. Hooray for that.

There is a bunch of rain in the forecast tonight, so the Yankees are going to work backwards with their pitchers. The big league relievers will pitch the early innings to make sure they get their work in before the rain. Once those guys are done, scheduled starter Nestor Cortes will take over. Here is the Nationals’ lineup and here are the players the Yankees will use tonight:

CF Brett Gardner
RF Aaron Judge
LF Giancarlo Stanton
DH Luke Voit
3B Miguel Andujar
C Gary Sanchez
2B Gleyber Torres
SS Troy Tulowitzki
1B DJ LeMahieu

LHP Stephen Tarpley

Available Position Players: C Francisco Diaz, C Austin Romine, 1B Greg Bird, IF Angel Aguilar, IF Thairo Estrada, IF Kyle Holder, OF Trey Amburgey, OF Jeff Hendrix, OF Mike Tauchman, OF Zack Zehner, UTIL Tyler Wade. Aguilar, Estrada, Holder, Amburgey, Hendrix, Zehner, and Wade are the lucky minor league camp guys who got to make the trip.

Available Pitchers: LHP Zack Britton, LHP Nestor Cortes, RHP Cale Coshow, RHP Joe Harvey, RHP Tommy Kahnle, LHP Trevor Lane, RHP Adam Ottavino, RHP David Sosebee, RHP Greg Weissert. Cortes, Coshow, Harvey, Lane, Sosebee, and Weissert escaped minor league camp to make the trip.

Like I said, there is rain in the forecast in Washington this evening. The internet tells me it’ll start raining around 6pm ET or so, with the heaviest stuff set to arrive about an hour later. Once the rain starts, it’s not supposed to stop until early tomorrow morning, so don’t bet on a mid-game delay. They’ll call it after a few innings. Anyway, first pitch is scheduled for 5:05pm ET and you can watch live on MLB.tv and MLB Network. (MLB.tv is free tonight. Just sign up for a free MLB.com account.) MLB Network will show the game in the Yankees’ home market and there are no MLB.tv blackouts in Spring Training. Enjoy the game.

The Depth Position Players [2019 Season Preview]

March 25, 2019 by Mike

As the MLB player portion of our 2019 Season Preview series winds down, it’s time to hit on the depth position players, the guys every team needs but doesn’t want to use. The third catcher, the sixth outfielder, the backup backup utility infielder. Players like that. Inevitably, a few of these deep depth guys find their way to the big leagues each season. It is part of baseball.

At perfect health, the Yankees have good depth options on the infield (Tyler Wade) and in the outfield (Clint Frazier). They’re not at perfect health though. Aaron Hicks is hurt and Frazier is ticketed for Triple-A to get regular at-bats after losing so much time to injury last year. Beyond them, this year’s cast of depth players includes the usual non-roster types, the incumbent third catcher, a late-spring addition, and a well-paid question market. Let’s preview the depth guys.

Jacoby Ellsbury

It is kinda weird to include the third highest paid Yankee with the depth position players, but that’s where Jacoby Ellsbury is with the Yankees now. He has not played since the 2017 ALCS — Ellsbury pinch-hit in Game One and pinch-ran in Game Four, and that was it that series — and various injuries sidelined him all last season. Most notably, Ellsbury had hip surgery in August, and he’s still rehabbing.

“It feels real speculatory of me to even go down that road,” said Aaron Boone to Kristie Ackert recently when asked when Ellsbury will be able to play again. “First things first. It does seem like he is improving and getting better and obviously he’s here now … Hopefully he just continues improving and at some point becomes an option for us.”

Ellsbury stayed home in Arizona for a few weeks before finally reporting to Spring Training last weekend to continue his rehab. He recently started running on flat ground and is doing very light baseball activities. Hitting off a tee, playing catch at short distances, things like that. Ellsbury is not in Spring Training mode. He’s still in rehab mode and is presumably weeks away from really ramping up his baseball work.

“It’s nice to be going, doing baseball activity. As far as a timeline of when I’ll be playing, we’re not sure yet,” said Ellsbury to Coley Harvey. “You want to be out there, for sure. That’s why I put in the time, put in the work. You want to be out there, you want to contribute, you want to be part of the team. And the best way for me to do that right now is just put the work in in the gym, and the training room, the batting cage and that sort of thing. If I do that, we can get back on the field quicker.”

In addition to not playing in over a year, Ellsbury was not a lineup regular the last time he did play, and he is a 35-year-old speed guy coming off major hip surgery. You’d expect him to slow down and his skills to diminish at that age anyway. Add in the surgery and it is basically impossible to know what to expect this season, assuming Ellsbury makes it back on to the field at some point. That’s not a given.

The Yankees reportedly have insurance on Ellsbury’s contract and his current status indicates he’ll spend at least a few weeks on the injured list. They’ll collect insurance while he rehabs, monitor his progress, then make a decision about his future when he’s ready to play in a big league game. It could be they Yankees will need Ellsbury like they needed him last August, when Shane Robinson and Neil Walker were playing right field.

There’s also a non-zero chance the Yankees will have no room for Ellsbury, and release him the way they released Alex Rodriguez three years ago, or the way the Red Sox released Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, or the way the Dodgers released Carl Crawford. Teams are increasingly willing to release unproductive players with multiple years on their big contracts. Ellsbury could be next.

For now, Ellsbury is still rehabbing, and it’s unclear when he’ll return to game action. Between his rehab work and rehab games, it sounds like he’s weeks away from returning. It’s impossible to know what to expect from him but it is difficult to envision him fitting into the outfield picture when the Yankees are full healthy. There’s not much we can do other than wait and see. Ellsbury may’ve already played his final game in pinstripes. Or it could be they’ll need him in the lineup once he’s healthy.

“I believe when he’s healthy he’ll be back and he’ll be able to show us what he is capable of doing,” said Brian Cashman to James Wagner. “I’ve been told by doctors that if that’s the case we’ll be able to see the player we used to see.”

Kyle Higashioka

Higashioka is an ideal third catcher. He really is. He has a minor league option remaining, so the Yankees can shuttle him in and out as necessary this year, and he already knows the pitching staff. Higashioka has been in the farm system since 2008, he’s been in big league camp every year since 2015, and he’s had multiple stints with the MLB team the last two years. He’s not some scrap heap pickup who has no history with the pitchers, you know?

Also, Higashioka can put a mistake in the seats, which is about all you could ask from the third string catcher offensively. Expecting a third catcher to hit for average and draw walks and hit for power isn’t realistic. If he could do even two of those things, he wouldn’t be a third catcher. He’d be starting or at least backing up somewhere, not riding the shuttle. Higashioka rates well defensively, he has some pop, and he’s optionable. What more could you want from the third guy on the catching depth chart?

The Yankees have a good third catcher situation right now, and, in a perfect world, we won’t see Higashioka until rosters expand in September. (The 28-man September roster limit kicks in next year.) A healthy Gary Sanchez and a healthy Austin Romine is the best thing for the Yankees. Chances are one of them will miss time though (catchers are known to get beat up), and when they do, the perfectly cromulent Higashioka will step in as backup. He’s fine.

OF Mike Tauchman

Can’t say I expected to write a Mike Tauchman (!?) season preview blurb this year, but here we are. The Yankees acquired Tauchman from the Rockies for lefty relief prospect Phil Diehl over the weekend, and Tauchman will be on the Opening Day roster as Aaron Hicks’ replacement. Tyler Wade, who seemed to have a roster spot locked up, had the rug pulled out from under him at the end of camp. Ouch.

“Excited to get a guy that we feel is pretty talented and can play multiple positions out in the outfield, a guy that does have options,” said Aaron Boone to Brendan Kuty following the trade. Tauchman has only a little big league time, hitting .153/.265/.203 (17 wRC+) in 69 plate appearances spread across multiple cups of coffee, but he did lose his glove over the wall while trying to rob a home run once, and that’s kinda funny.

Tauchman, 28, can play all three outfield positions and play them well enough, which is pretty important. The Yankees were short on upper level outfield depth — Clint Frazier, their only true depth outfielder on the 40-man roster, can’t (or shouldn’t) play center — plus he’s a left-handed hitter, which is something the big league lineup lacks. As far as fourth outfielders go, Tauchman fits the profile.

While not a true launch angle guy, Tauchman made some swing changes two years ago in an effort to unlock some power. “I cleaned up my mechanics in my lower half, and that enabled me to use more of my body weight. I felt like I was in a really good place going into the offseason, and I kept working … I was kind of settling for singles and just looking to get on. Now I’ve changed my approach,” he said to Patrick Saunders in June 2017. The numbers:

	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%	GB%
2016 in AAA	527	.286/.342/.373	92	1	14.6%	7.6%	57.5%
2017 in AAA	475	.331/.386/.555	139	16	15.4%	8.4%	46.7%
2018 in AAA	471	.323/.408/.571	153	20	14.9%	12.7%	43.5%

Going from one homer in 527 plate appearances one year to 16 homers in 475 plate appearances the next is really something, especially when it coincides with a mechanical change. Tauchman hit four more homers in four fewer plate appearances the following year, and look at those ground ball rates. Grounders going down, power numbers going up. It is the way of the world.

That all said, my dude has spent three straight season in Triple-A (with a few short MLB call-ups mixed in). You’d expect any player to improve his performance each time he repeats the level. Tauchman’s not special in that regard. It is difficult — if not impossible — to separate what is legitimate mechanics-related improvement and what is statistical noise stemming from a guy playing at the same minor league level year after year.

I know this much: Tauchman fills a need and the Yankees are really good at identifying talent in other organizations. Didi Gregorius and Aaron Hicks were post-hype prospects. Chad Green was an afterthought Double-A starter. Luke Voit was repeating Triple-A when the Yankees came calling. A 28-year-old outfielder who has never appeared on any prospect lists and was heading into his fourth Triple-A season hardly screams sleeper, but … maybe?

The Non-40-Man Roster Depth Players

You never want to see them, but sometimes they’re necessary. Shane Robinson was maybe eighth on the outfield depth going into Spring Training last year, yet he appeared in 25 big league games with the Yankees. Jace Peterson went from non-roster invitee in the spring to starting in left field in April. Ji-Man Choi, Mason Williams, and Pete Kozma all spent time with the Yankees in 2017. Injuries happen, and sometimes teams have to call up players they were hoping they wouldn’t have to call up. C‘est la vie.

The Yankees had three position players with MLB service time in camp as non-roster players this year: Ryan Lavarnway, Billy Burns, and Gio Urshela. Lavarnway is at best the fourth catcher behind Sanchez, Romine, and Higashioka, so if we see him in the Bronx this season, it will mean something really went wrong. I was surprised the Yankees signed Lavarnway because he doesn’t seem like their type (bad pitch-framer, etc.), but whatever. His best skill is power. Lavarnway is the deep catcher option.

Among these non-40-man roster depth guys, Burns likely has the best chance at seeing big league time this year. He is a true center fielder, and Aaron Hicks is already hurt, so a Brett Gardner injury could land Burns in the Bronx. Seriously. Gardner filling in for Hicks with Tauchman (or Tyler Wade) as the backup center fielder is a good short-term plan. In a long-term injury situation, the speedy Burns makes more sense as a reserve outfielder. He’s a speed and defense guy who is better at speeding and defensing than Robinson, basically.

Urshela is only 27 and he is a fantastic defender at third base. Offensively, he’ll punish a mistake, and that’s about it, which is fine. Should Miguel Andujar miss time with injury, I assume DJ LeMahieu would step in at third base. If Andujar and LeMahieu miss time, the Yankees still might go with Wade (or 40-man roster guy Thairo Estrada) over Urshela. Urshela’s a great Triple-A player and good MLB depth piece. It’ll take a few infield injuries to get him to the Bronx this summer. Given the way Spring Training went, we’ll probably see him at third base in two weeks.

The Very Necessary Depth Starters [2019 Season Preview]

March 25, 2019 by Steven Tydings

In the modern MLB, every team needs more than five starters. It’s just the nature of the game.

That especially applies to the 2019 Yankees. Luis Severino is on the shelf until May. CC Sabathia is expected back in mid-April, but he always has his mid-summer IL stint. Therefore, the Yankees are going to need one of their depth starters from the jump and another within a couple of weeks of the season starting.

So who do the Bombers have backing up their starting rotation?

Domingo German

Say hello to your No. 4 starter! That’s right, the pitcher who had a 5.57 ERA last season will be in the Opening Day rotation.

German had an extreme go of it in the rotation in 2018. In his first start, he no-hit Cleveland for six innings. He then gave up six runs in each of his next two starts with a total of six walks and three homers.

While he gave up plenty of home runs and had bouts of wildness, he also displayed flashes of brilliance. In a three-start stretch last June, he struck out 28 batters and walked two over 19 innings.

What won him the rotation spot this spring? German’s pure stuff is electrifying: He sits in the mid-90s with his fastball/sinker with a high-80s change and low-80s curve. His offspeed pitches had a whiff rate of 35.8 and 41.3 percent, respectively.

He struck out 22 and walked just two over 15 1/3 Grapefruit League innings. His 4.11 ERA doesn’t tell the whole story as he gave up five of his eight earned runs in his final spring start, when the Cardinals launched three homers against him.

What is his role for all of 2019? If the Yankees get all five of their main starters healthy, he’s likely ticketed for Triple-A, though there will be plenty of starts. Despite Gio Gonzalez in the system, German could very well get more than the 14 starts he had last season. If he does, the team will need more consistency from the 26-year-old pitcher.

What may help is the opener. For both German and the No. 5 starter, the Yankees may utilize Chad Green or Jonathan Holder as an opener. That’s especially important for German, who had an 8.36 ERA in first innings last year.

Luis Cessa

It feels like Cessa has been on the shuttle between Scranton and the Bronx for a half-decade, but that time will come to an end in 2019. The fourth-year pitcher is out of options and will be serving in the Opening Day bullpen.

While German had good underlying numbers this spring, Cessa had fantastic ones. He struck out 19, walked just two and gave up only 11 hits over 18 1/3 innings.

The 26-year-old righty lives in the mid-90s with the fastball like German but works in a healthy dose of sliders, turning to the pitch 41 percent of the time last year.

His role is more indeterminate than German. He’ll be the long reliever to begin the year, yet his spring performance may make him the favorite to take the No. 5 starter role when the turn first pops up. Unlike German, he won’t be going to Scranton anytime soon and his lack of options may mean this is it for him in pinstripes.

As with any pitcher, working in shorter outings out of the bullpen could unlock a new level of performance for Cessa. He’s done a better job of attacking the zone this spring, which could help his fastball play up in relief action.

Jonathan Loaisiga

Of the Yankees’ depth starting options, Loaisiga has the best pure stuff. His fastball averages 96 mph with a high-80s changeup and low-80s slider/curve. The whiff rate on his slider/curve was well above 30 percent. The spin rate on his curve is in the 86th percentile and his fastball velocity in the 89th. He’s got all the talent to be a contributing major leaguer.

But his health and control tell a different story. He’s a regular on the injured list, as one might expect from a hard-throwing righty under six-feet tall. Meanwhile, despite a strikeout rate above 30 percent last year, he also walked 11.1 percent of batters. His underlying numbers were still above-average, but he had a 5.11 ERA in his short MLB stint.

This season, he’ll be up in the majors for game No. 6 i.e. when Sabathia’s suspension is up. His role is anybody’s guess. Moreso than the previous two entries to this list, he may be ticketed for the bullpen long term and his stuff makes you believe he could be quite dominant once there. His chance to start in the Bronx is slim, even if he grabs the No. 5 spot in mid-April.

Chance Adams

In the next tier, there’s Adams. Added to the 40-man roster for a spot start last August, he didn’t impress in limited action. He’s in his third year repeating Triple-A after his performance took a turn for the worse in 2018.

This may be familiar by now, but he’s a two-pitch pitcher (fastball-slider) who gets strikeouts but can’t seem to find the plate often enough for sustained success. He’s walked more than three per nine the last few years with the walk rate going up.

Therefore, this is a big season. He can’t stall out in Triple-A and expect to a have a safe 40-man spot a year from now. His optionability makes him a potential up-and-down arm at times with spot starts likely going elsewhere. He needs to turn things around in Scranton before he sees the Bronx for an extended period.

Who else?

Beyond those four, the team still has some starting depth. Gonzalez’s MiLB deal has an out on April 20 and struggles from German or Cessa could open the door for the established veteran.

After Gonzalez, it’s anybody’s guess. David Hale and Drew Hutchison, both ticketed for Triple-A, each saw some time in the Show last year, with Hale having multiple stints in pinstripes before going overseas. They’re veteran depth arms.

As for prospects, Michael King lost out on Spring Training with an arm injury. Domingo Acevedo didn’t get a look in big league camp and will be repeating Double-A Trenton, though he’s on the 40-man roster. If the Yankees run through the above options and are looking for more, something has seriously gone wrong.