River Avenue Blues

Didi Gregorius’ contract for 2019 should soon come into focus with the arbitration salary filing deadline looming

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(Presswire)

There is an important deadline coming later this week. This Friday is the deadline for teams and their arbitration-eligible players to submit salary figures for 2019. The player files what he believes he should be paid in 2019 and the team files what they believe he should be paid in 2019. If the two sides are unable to reach a contract agreement, they’ll go to an arbitration hearing, and the panel will pick one of the two filing figures. Nothing in between.

Generally speaking, most arbitration-eligible players agree to a new contract before filing salary figures. The filing deadline is not a hard deadline — the two sides can still discuss a contract of any size after filing — though more and more teams are adopting a “file and trial” approach. That means once the two sides file salary figures, the team cuts off contract talks and they go to a hearing. It’s designed to put pressure on the player to sign.

The Yankees have a very large arbitration class this year. They came into the offseason with nine arbitration-eligible players combining for $45.1M in projected salary. Subtract Ronald Torreyes and add James Paxton, and it jumps to $53.2M. That’s a lot. Last year’s arbitration class ran $29.235M even when including Adam Warren’s full salary. A significant chunk of the 2019 payroll will be allocated between now and Friday.

For the most part the Yankees sign all their players prior to the filing deadline. They’ve been to one arbitration hearing in the last ten years (Dellin Betances in 2017) and only a handful of times have they had to go beyond the filing deadline to get a contract done. Most notably, they didn’t sign Aroldis Chapman until a week before his scheduled arbitration hearing in 2016. That was a month after the filing deadline.

In all likelihood the Yankees will work out contracts with their nine arbitration-eligible players prior to Friday’s filing deadline. That’s usually how it goes. These talks are pretty straightforward. There is one obvious exception though: Didi Gregorius. Gregorius will miss the start of the coming season as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery and paying him his full $12.4M projected salary doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. The Yankees figure to push for a discount.

Gregorius will go into contract talks with more leverage than the average arbitration-eligible player. Arbitration is an archaic process that pays based on past performance, not expected future performance, and Sir Didi has been among the most productive shortstops in baseball the last three years. His Tommy John surgery won’t cost him because he hasn’t missed any time with it yet. Had he missed last season with the injury, yeah, it would’ve cost him. He didn’t though.

(I was hoping to prove my point by digging up arbitration-eligible pitchers who had Tommy John surgery after the season, and comparing their projected salary to their actual salary. Turns out that hasn’t happened at all in recent years. Lance Lynn was under a multi-year contract when he had his Tommy John surgery. Matt Harvey was in his pre-arbitration years. Greg Holland was non-tendered. There are no recent Gregorius equivalents. Drat.)

By rule, teams can only reduce a player’s salary to 80% of his previous year’s salary. Gregorius earned $8.25M last year so the absolute minimum the Yankees can pay him this coming season is $6.6M. The thing is, no player has ever had his salary reduced by an arbitration panel, and it won’t happen for the first time with Gregorius. He’s been too productive. Gregorius will get a raise. The question is how large a raise?

The Yankees surely want to sign Gregorius to something less than his projected $12.4M salary, though they also have to be careful not to file a salary figure too low. If they do, they run the risk of the panel siding with Didi should they go to a hearing. And this works both ways. The Yankees could force Didi to defend his higher number in a hearing, but he has the stats, and he hasn’t missed any time with Tommy John surgery yet. As long as he and his agent don’t file something unreasonable, they’ll be in good shape.

The Yankees could’ve non-tendered Gregorius earlier this offseason, which would’ve put him into free agency and freed them from the 80% rule and the other arbitration system rules. It’s easy to say the Yankees should’ve non-tendered him and re-signed him at a reduced salary. The problem there is Gregorius is a very productive 28-year-old shortstop. Even with Tommy John surgery and even with the frigid free agent market, I reckon several teams would’ve pursued him.

Realistically, I don’t think the Yankees would’ve been able to retain Gregorius at a reduced salary following a non-tender. I think he would’ve beat his $12.4M projection in total dollars on a guaranteed multi-year contract worth something more. Two years and $20M, something like that. The best and safest way to keep Gregorius was to tender him a contract and negotiate a new deal, not open things up to a potential free agent bidding war, so that’s what the Yankees did.

Anyway, Friday’s filing deadline seems more urgent for the Yankees than Gregorius. If they want to get Gregorius at a reduced salary — to be clear, by reduced salary I mean a smaller than projected raise, because a raise is inevitable — the best way to do that is to get him to agree to a contract beforehand. Getting a reduced salary through arbitration will be tough because, again, Gregorius has the stats, and he hasn’t missed time with his injury yet.

Brian Cashman has said he hopes to retain Gregorius long-term. That’s great. We all love Didi and want him to wear pinstripes as long as possible (right?). I would totally understand the Yankees waiting until Gregorius returns just to make sure he’s the same player following Tommy John surgery to offer a long-term contract. I also think the looming arbitration salary filing deadline could push the Yankees to get a deal done now, because it might be their last chance to get any sort of injury-related discount.

Personally, I think the most likely outcome here is a one-year contract at the $12.4M projected salary or thereabouts. Gregorius doesn’t have much of a reason to take a big discount — again, he can simply take the Yankees to arbitration and make them defend their lower number against the stats — and that could push the Yankees to get a multi-year deal done. It might be their only way to get a lower than projected 2019 salary. And, with the filing deadline coming, time is running out on their ability to negotiate without any other numbers out there.

Thoughts five weeks before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training

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Been a while since Tulowitzki was on the field. (Presswire)

In exactly five weeks pitchers and catchers will report to Tampa to begin the new season. Doesn’t seem so far away, does it? The Yankees may be done with their offseason shopping. It’s possible. Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, and several quality relievers are still sitting in free agency, sure, but it is entirely possible the 2019 Yankees are already in place. We’ll see. Here are some scattered thoughts.

1. The Yankees signed Troy Tulowitzki — and 15 other teams tried to sign Tulowitzki, reportedly — because he represents the one thing teams love more than anything: Something for nothing. Machado is in his own little world, but why spend money on Jed Lowrie or DJ LeMahieu when you could give Tulowitzki the league minimum and still claim to be trying to win? He is the perfect addition for the austerity era Yankees. He’s dirt cheap, he has name value, and he’s an excuse to pass on more expensive players. It’s not fair to single out the Yankees here because this applies to every team. If the report is true and 15 teams in addition to the Yankees pursued Tulowitzki, it means more teams were in on him than are reportedly in on Machado and Harper combined. Teams love something for nothing. They’d rather pay nothing for potential production than pay a lot for guaranteed production. Baseball is beyond screwed up when more teams are pursuing late career Tulowitzki than peak Machado and Harper. The Yankees should not let Tulowitzki stand in the way of other infield additions, even someone like Freddy Galvis or Josh Harrison, but it seems they will. They’ve made it pretty clear they view him as their starting shortstop and I don’t think Tulowitzki would’ve picked the Yankees without some promise of playing time. The Yankees won the “something for nothing” lottery with Tulowitzki. Now the question is will he give them something, or nothing?

2. On that note, the Yankees seem very well set up to wait out the free agent market and score a bargain in February or even March. Tulowitzki addresses the infield and Zach Britton gives them added bullpen depth. There is less urgency to get things done now, so the Yankees can remain patient, and see who’s still available in a few weeks. Perhaps someone like Cody Allen, Adam Warren, or Justin Wilson will still be sitting out there on the eve of Spring Training. I doubt it — relievers are pretty much the only free agents getting signed these days — but hey, you never know, and the Yankees are in position to wait and find out. They don’t absolutely need another infielder and they don’t absolutely need another reliever. I mean, they should go get another good reliever, but it’s less of a priority now than it was before the Britton deal. Remember, the Yankees opened Spring Training last year with Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar penciled in at second and third bases. The Brandon Drury trade happened a few days into camp and the Neil Walker signing happened in March. Drury and Walker didn’t really work out as hoped, but the strategy was sound. The Yankees waited out the market — they were connected to Drury as far back as the Winter Meetings, remember — and some things fell into their laps. The players did not work out. The strategy did. It would not surprise me at all to see them do it again, especially with the second bullpen piece they’re said to be seeking.

3. I don’t know how many times I’ve said this over the last two years but gosh, it sure would be cool if Greg Bird had a big season this year. Stay healthy and rake, that sorta thing. Luke Voit is cool and I am genuinely curious to see what he could do with an extended opportunity. Maybe he really is the next Nelson Cruz or Jesus Aguilar. Who knows? I think Bird has the higher long-term upside (and lower probability) though, and, frankly, it would be nice to find one more left-handed batter for the lineup. With Tulowitzki set to play shortstop until Didi Gregorius returns, the only lefties in the lineup will be Brett Gardner and switch-hitting Aaron Hicks, and Gardner’s not really an offensive threat. Give me a good righty bat in an imbalanced lineup over an okay lefty bat in a balanced lineup. I’m just saying that, all things being equal, I’d like another lefty bat in the lineup this year. Bird is the obvious (only) in-house candidate to fill that left-handed void. He has to stay healthy and actually hit though, and, as I’ve been saying the last few weeks, the Yankees should send Bird to Triple-A until he shows he’s a threat at the plate and no longer swinging through 90 mph middle-middle fastballs. Can’t guarantee him anything. Not after the last two seasons. Bird has to earn his big league lineup spot and I hope he does, because he’d complement the offense nicely.

Tomas. (Norm Hall/Getty)

4. Yet another bad contract for bad contract proposal featuring Jacoby Ellsbury: Ellsbury, $15M, and a prospect for Yasmany Tomas. From 2015-17, Tomas put up a .268/.307/.462 (98 wRC+) batting line and -0.4 WAR in 305 games and 1,169 plate appearances for the Diamondbacks. Last season they buried him in the minors and he hit .262/.280/.465 (86 wRC+) with 14 homers in 371 Triple-A plate appearances, and, earlier this offseason, Tomas did not exercise the opt-out clause in his contract. I mean, duh. Why would he? He’s owed $15.5M in 2019 and $17M in 2020, so it’s $32.5M total the next two years. Now, here’s the key: Arizona outrighted Tomas off their 40-man roster last April. Because he’s not on the 40-man roster, his contract does not count toward the luxury tax payroll at all. (Ellsbury has too much service time to be outrighted.) That doesn’t matter to the D’Backs because they’re nowhere near the $206M luxury tax threshold. It would matter a lot to the Yankees though. Ellsbury is owed $47.5M the next two years, so sending Ellsbury and $15M to Arizona — the $15M is to cover the difference in salaries — frees up $14.4M in luxury tax payroll space in 2019 and again in 2020. The trade is cash neutral. The D’Backs take on no additional salary and the Yankees don’t save any actual cash. They do save luxury tax space though and that’s the goal. Clear luxury tax payroll space. What happens with Tomas? Who cares. Send him to Triple-A Scranton or release him. It doesn’t matter. For the D’Backs, they get to replace a player they do not believe can help them — the outright is a pretty good indication they’ve given up on Tomas at the MLB level — with a player who might be able to help them at no added salary, plus they get a prospect. I wouldn’t give them a top prospect like Estevan Florial or Jonathan Loaisiga to make this work, but one of those lower level arms the Yankees have stashed away? Sure. Also, Ellsbury lives in Arizona, so he might waive his no-trade clause to go to the D’Backs. Bottom line is, even if Ellsbury doesn’t work out for the D’Backs, they still get a prospect out of it, which is more than they’d get for Tomas on his own. Ultimately, this is a pointless exercise because the Yankees aren’t trading Ellsbury. At least not until they recoup every dollar possible through insurance while he’s recovering from hip surgery, so maybe file this away for the trade deadline or whenever he gets healthy.

5. Random free agent worth a blurb: Nate Karns. Two reasons for this. One, he has had success in the AL East. Karns threw 147 innings with a 3.67 ERA (4.09 FIP) for the Rays in 2015. Injuries have slowed him since, including Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery last season, but Karns turned only 31 in November, so he’s not so old that expecting a bounceback with good health is unreasonable. And two, he has an option remaining. At least I believe he does. According to his MLB.com page, Karns was added to the 40-man roster in November 2012, and he was optioned down in 2013 and 2014, and that’s it. He should still have an option remaining, and, since he has less than five full years of service time (four years and 33 days), he can’t refuse a demotion to Triple-A. So Karns is the rare free agent who can be optioned to the minors. A worthwhile depth pickup? Yes, as long as he’s healthy and you think he can regain something close to his 2015 form. Luis Cessa is out of options and Steamer projects him for 4.51 ERA (4.57 FIP) in 2019. Karns apparently has an option and Steamer projects him for a 4.31 ERA (4.21 FIP). The downside here is Karns has to want to come to the Yankees. Yankee Stadium is not a good place for a pitcher to rebuild value, and he’s no idiot, he can look at the depth chart and see he’s likely ticketed for Triple-A. Other clubs figure to offer him an easier path to MLB playing time. This is just a thought. Swapping out Cessa for Karns would be a worthwhile move to upgrade the margins of the roster, as long as Karns is healthy.

6. I’ve seen a lot of chatter recently about setting transaction deadlines in the offseason. A trade deadline and/or a free agent deadline, I guess at some point in mid-December, then reopening the markets in Spring Training. I could not be more against offseason deadlines. For starters, baseball has become a 24/7/365 sport. It is in the news all the time and it should be in the news all the time. Cut off transactions at some arbitrary offseason date and you’re giving fans a reason to forget about baseball in the following weeks because they know nothing will happen. That’s bad for the sport. Secondly, offseason deadlines won’t help the players any. I think that’s especially true for a free agent signing deadline. With a free agent deadline, teams will just continue to wait and wait, and push players to the deadline. If they sign, great. If not, oh well. There is mounting evidence teams don’t prioritize winning. Thanks to the second Wild Card spot, never before in baseball history has it been as easy to qualify for the postseason as it is right now, yet roughly one-third of the league will go into this new season with no real intention of being competitive. Teams will use the deadline to squeeze players into team friendly contracts, and, if they don’t get them, they’ll walk away. If anything, the deadline will push free agents to sign even team friendlier contracts because they know they’d have to wait until Spring Training to sign otherwise. I appreciate folks trying to come up with ways to spur the market. I just don’t think this is it. Offseason transaction deadlines would give teams another mechanism to use against players but not vice versa.

7. With each passing week it feels the likelihood of a work stoppage (a players’ strike, specifically) increases. I wouldn’t call a work stoppage inevitable but things are moving in that direction. Free agency is the same as it was last year — I’d argue it’s worse than last year because two 26-year-old mega-talents like Harper and Machado aren’t getting blown away with offers — which means players aren’t getting paid as well and more revenue is being funneled to the owners. The current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires in December 2021 so we have three seasons and two offseasons to go before a potential work stoppage. A lot can change between now and then. I hope things improve between now and then because gosh, a strike would be awful. And, if there is a work stoppage, I wonder what role the television networks will play. MLB and the 30 teams make so much of their money nowadays through television deals, both local and national. Never before has league revenue been less driven by attendance, which is part of the problem. Bad attendance doesn’t hurt the bottom line as much. Who cares about attendance when those television contracts are locked in at guaranteed dollars for the next 15 or 20 or 25 years? Easy for an owner to sit through a multi-year rebuild when he knows he’s getting paid no matter what. What happens if there’s a strike though? Do the networks push MLB to get a deal done because they don’t want to pay them all that money to broadcast zero games? Or do the broadcast deals stop paying out because there are no games to televise? That sure would push the owners to get a deal done. I have no idea what’ll happen but it could be the MLBPA will have allies in the networks. They are a major revenue stream for the league and I don’t believe they would be silent during the CBA negotiating process.

CC Sabathia cleared to resume baseball activities following heart procedure

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(Presswire)

Earlier today the Yankees announced CC Sabathia was cleared to resume baseball activities following the latest follow-up exam for his heart condition. He underwent a stress test earlier today and was given the thumbs up for increased physical activities. Good news all around.

Sabathia underwent an angioplasty last month, meaning a stent was inserted to open a blockage. He resumed light workouts roughly a week later and has now been cleared to resume his usual offseason workouts. Pitchers and catchers are due to report to Tampa five weeks from tomorrow.

Brian Cashman recently said Sonny Gray trade talks were essentially put on hold until the team felt confident about Sabathia’s recovery. He might’ve just been trying to create leverage though. Now that Sabathia has been cleared to resume workouts, I suppose a Gray trade could soon follow. We’ll see.

Sabathia, 38, is closing in on 3,000 career strikeouts (14 away) and 250 wins (four away). He’ll join Hall of Famers Randy Johnson and Steve Carlton as the only lefties in the 3,000 strikeout club. Sabathia has said 2019 will be his final season.

Hot Stove Rumors: Machado, Andujar, Gray, Padres, Tulowitzki

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Machado. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty)

As usual, the hot stove league has ground to a halt in January, except in the past it happened because all the top free agents had signed. Nowadays it’s because no teams want to spend money. Have we reached the point where signing free agents is a market inefficiency? Possibly! Anyway, earlier today we discussed the Yankees’ continued interest in Adam Ottavino. Now here’s the latest hot stove rumblings.

Yankees have not made Machado a “concrete” offer

Here we go again with the “they haven’t made an offer yet” stuff. According to Ken Davidoff, the Yankees have not yet made a “concrete” offer to Manny Machado. For what it’s worth, Bob Nightengale reported the White Sox made Machado a formal offer last week, and Jim Salisbury says the Phillies are still negotiating with Machado, which indicates no offer has been made. Davidoff says the Yankees and Dan Lozano, Machado’s agent, are not far along enough in talks to make a formal offer.

The offer stuff gets overplayed every offseason. The important thing is the two sides are talking. Should they get to a point where they’re close on money, the Yankees will put a piece of paper in front of Machado (they’ll send an electronic document to his iPad, really) and move forward. I mean, does anyone really think the Yankees will lose out on Machado simply because the White Sox have a formal offer in front of him and the Yankees don’t? If Machado wants to be a Yankee, they’ll work out the contract terms, and he’ll wait on the offer.

Yankees not seriously shopping Andujar

According to Davidoff, the Yankees are not seriously shopping Miguel Andujar. It has been reported throughout the offseason that the Yankees are open to trading him. Both of those things can be true. The Yankees can be open to trading Andujar — I’m certain they’re open to trading a lot of players should the right offer come along — without actively shopping him and pushing him in trade talks.

Also, keep in mind these things can change in a hurry. If the Yankees manage to sign Machado, they could turn right around and begin to push Andujar in trade talks in an effort to address other needs. I don’t love that idea — the more high-end bats the better, and the Yankees could easily make room for Machado and Andujar on the roster — but it is a viable option. Overall, there is too much “trade Andujar” talk for my liking. He’s really good! The Yankees should be keeping really good young players, even if they are flawed.

Padres still after Gray

The last Sonny Gray non-update: Jon Morosi reports the Padres still have interest in acquiring Gray. Brian Cashman walked back his repeated “we’re going to trade him” comments last week on account of CC Sabathia’s angioplasty. Cashman said the Yankees slowed down their Gray talks following Sabathia’s procedure because the team wants to make sure they’re covered. Sabathia has follow-up exams coming that will clarify his status.

Sabathia’s condition certainly changed the equation, but clearly, the Yankees did not consider Gray a viable rotation option earlier this offseason, and nothing’s really changed on his end. He’s the same old Sonny Gray. If the Yankees didn’t consider him a rotation option before, they shouldn’t consider him one now. I suspect the talk about holding onto him following Sabathia’s procedure is just that, talk. I expect the Yankees to continue pushing Gray in trade talks and likely move him before Spring Training, regardless of Sabathia’s condition. They’d find a depth starter elsewhere.

Tulowitzki has full no-trade clause

Sixteen teams were interested in Troy Tulowitzki following his workout last month, and, to bring him to the Bronx, the Yankees gave Tulowitzki a full no-trade clause, reports Jon Heyman. This is largely inconsequential. First of all, it is unlikely Tulowitzki plays his way into any real trade value. Secondly, if Tulowitzki does play well enough to have real trade value, the Yankees would probably want to keep him because depth is cool. Need it to contend.

And third, Tulowitzki will make the $555,000 league minimum. If he’s that much of a roster clog and he’s unwilling to accept a trade, the Yankees could just release him and eat the money. Doing that with a player making $10M is a tough pill to swallow. The league minimum? No, who cares. The no-trade clause gives Tulowitzki some peace of mind and comes at no real cost to the Yankees. His low salary makes it easy to dump him should a roster spot be required.

Sabathia’s heart condition has allowed the Yankees to walk back their Sonny Gray comments

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(NY Post)

Spring Training is five weeks and one day away and, rather surprisingly, Sonny Gray is still a Yankee. The Yankees and Brian Cashman have made it crystal clear they want to trade Gray. That was the case even before they filled out the rotation with James Paxton, J.A. Happ, and CC Sabathia over the last few weeks. The Yankees proceeded this winter as if Gray were a non-factor.

“I’m not pounding on Sonny Gray,” said Brian Cashman to Bryan Hoch late last week when asked about his Gray comments. “I’m just answering everybody’s questions in the media, but sometimes people take it as a perceived (slight) that I’m piling on. No, I’ve been fully transparent with Sonny first and foremost, and with members of the media so they can communicate properly to our fan base.”

Two weeks ago I said there are three possible reasons why Sonny has not yet been traded. Either the Yankees haven’t found the right trade, they’ve had a change of heart and want to keep him, or Cashman’s public comments have backfired and no one wants Gray. Last week Cashman doubled down (quadrupled down at this point, really) on wanting to trade Sonny, but added Sabathia’s heart condition has changed the equation.

“Our intention is to move Sonny Gray and relocate him when we get the proper return, in our estimation. It’ll happen this winter, it’ll happen in the spring, or it’ll happen sometime during the season,” Cashman said to Hoch and Ron Blum. “… The CC thing, certainly when it developed it slowed down my conversations with intent because we have to see how this played out first. And so once he has these follow-up appointments, I’ll be in a much better position to either fully engage moving forward the Sonny Gray conversations that we’ve had, or continue to slow walk it while we make sure that CC is taken care of health-wise first and foremost.”

On one hand, wanting to keep Gray as rotation insurance following Sabathia’s angioplasty makes sense. I am okay with carrying Sonny into Spring Training even though he stunk last season. On the other hand, Cashman has made it pretty clear the Yankees don’t believe Sonny can succeed in New York, and if that is truly the case, what kind of rotation insurance is he, really? Has anything changed other than Sabathia’s condition? Two quick thoughts on this.

1. The Yankees kinda sorta have more leverage now. In a very screwed up way Sabathia’s heart condition gives the Yankees increased leverage in trade talks because keeping Gray is more viable. After filling up the rotation, it was clear the Yankees had little use for (or little desire to keep) him, so why would teams come forward with great offers? Now the Yankees keeping Gray is much more believable because they need protection against Sabathia.

2. Waiting too long can be costly. Patience is generally a good thing but there is an inflection point where it becomes counterproductive. Eventually teams turn their attention elsewhere. The Reds, for example, are said to have faded out of the Gray picture because they acquired Tanner Roark and Alex Wood. There are still a lot — a lot — of free agents out there. At some point other Gray suitors (Brewers, Padres, etc.) will turn their attention elsewhere, especially since Sonny only has the one year of team control. He’s not a long-term buy.

The obvious caveat here is that starting pitching is always and forever in demand. There are 150 rotation spots around baseball but there are not 150 better starting pitchers than Gray, and of course injuries open rotation spots all the time. Some team will lose a starter to injury in Spring Training and it could spark interest in Gray. Hey, maybe the Yankees will lose a starter to injury and decide keeping Sonny is their best option going forward. It’s possible!

I think this is most likely what happened: The Yankees came into the offseason fully intending to trade Gray, offers weren’t great at the outset and we’re getting any better, then Sabathia had his angioplasty and allowed Cashman to walk back his comments a bit. Keeping Gray made little sense a few weeks ago and other teams knew it. Now keeping him is justifiable. The Yankees want protection for that fifth starter’s spot.

By all accounts Sabathia is doing well following his heart procedure and he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training. The Yankees will take it easy on him in camp because they always take it easy on him in camp — Sabathia’s  made two Grapefruit League road starts since 2014 and he does most of his work in simulated games nowadays — and also because they’ll want to make sure his heart is healthy. There are bigger concerns than baseball here.

While keeping Gray makes more sense now than it did a month ago, I don’t think the Yankees would hesitate to trade him if the right offer comes along. What is that right offer? I’m not sure how the Yankees value Sonny, but I think they’d trade him for that right offer in an instant, and find a sixth starter elsewhere. Will that sixth starter offer the same upside as Gray? Not likely. Will that sixth starter cost upwards of $9M like Gray? Almost certainly not.

The Sonny Gray situation has been unusual from the start because Cashman’s been so public about trading him. I don’t ever remember a general manager announcing his intentions to trade a player like this. And the longer this has dragged on, the weirder it’s become. As poorly as he pitched last year, keeping Gray is not unreasonable, and that was true before Sabathia’s heart issue. Now that Sabathia is more of a question, Cashman can tell other teams he wants to keep Sonny and have it actually be believable. That wasn’t the case earlier this offseason.

Four reasons the Yankees should pursue Adam Ottavino even after signing Zach Britton

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(Presswire)

Over the weekend the Yankees bolstered their bullpen and agreed to a unique two-year contract with Zach Britton. It’s two years with a two-year club option or a one-year player option. Britton rejoins Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Chad Green, and Jonathan Holder in the bullpen. A pretty good relief core, that is. The other three bullpen spots are still undecided.

Even after re-signing Britton, the Yankees remain interested in free agent righty Adam Ottavino, report Jon Heyman and Mark Feinsand. The Yankees have been linked to Ottavino all winter and that has not changed. For all intents and purposes, the bullpen right now is the bullpen the Yankees had at the end of last year, minus David Robertson. Ottavino is best realistically available option to replace Robertson.

Ottavino turned 33 earlier this offseason — he is eight months younger than Robertson — and he’s a native New Yorker. Born in Manhattan, raised in Brooklyn, trains in vacant Harlem storefronts in the offseason. At this point he is no worse than the second best free agent reliever on the market behind Craig Kimbrel. To me, aggressively pursuing Ottavino is a no-brainer for the Yankees, for four reasons.

1. He makes them better. I can’t believe I have to point this out, but I have people in my Twitter mentions telling me the Yankees “don’t need” Manny Machado every single day, so I am compelled to spell this out. Ottavino is very good. He struck out 112 batters with a 2.43 ERA (2.74 FIP) in 77.2 innings last year and did it while calling Coors Field his home ballpark. Please enjoy these sliders:

Ottavino is very good. He’s been up and down in his career to date but he has the tools to be very successful — I refer you to the aforeembedded slider GIF — and, as last year’s storefront work showed, the drive and the smarts to improve. Ottavino’s really good. He might be bad in the way every free agent signing might be bad, but he’s really good and he’d make the Yankees better. And when you have a win-now roster, getting better should be the top priority. I idea the Yankees “don’t need” any above-average player is silly y’all. More talent equals more wins.

2. He’d give the bullpen another high-strikeout arm. Chapman, even with his velocity dwindling, still misses a ton of bats. Betances misses a ton of bats. Britton hasn’t missed many bats the last two years though, and last season Green’s strikeout rate dropped nearly ten percentage points. That’s one fewer strikeout for every ten batters faced. Pretty significant! Holder’s strikeout rate was more or less league average last year too.

Point is, the Yankees could use one more bona fide bat-misser for the middle innings. Chapman is the closer and Betances is the eighth inning guy until his performance necessitates a demotion. Who’s getting that key strikeout with runners on second and third in the sixth or seventh inning? Green is the club’s best bet right now and, again, his strikeout rate dropped quite a bit last year. Ottavino is as good a bet to get those key strikeouts as any reliever in baseball, and we know the Yankees love strikeouts.

3. Next year’s free agent reliever class stinks. Here is the 2019-20 free agent class. Right now, looking at this in January 2019, the best free agent reliever will be Betances. Ryan Pressly, Steve Cishek, and Jeremy Jeffress stand out as the best of the rest. Ignoring the fact that none of those three can help the Yankees win in 2018, how many would you comfortably expect to outperform — or even match — Ottavino going forward? I think you could argue all of them. I also think you could argue none of them.

There’s also this: Future free agent classes only get worse as time passes. Far more players sign extensions or see their skills diminish than break out and become coveted free agents. Passing on Ottavino now to sign Pressly next year makes some sense. But what if Pressly has a Cody Allen season next year, or the Astros lock him up? I don’t agree with it, but you could argue the Yankees should pass on Machado now and instead sign Nolan Arenado next year. There’s a viable alternative. I can’t imagine making that claim with a relief pitcher though.

4. The 2020 bullpen is a tad unsettled. Betances will be a free agent next winter and Chapman could opt out of his contract after this coming season. I don’t think it’ll happen, but you never know. He’d be walking away from two years and $34.4M. Maybe Chapman and his agent will believe there are three years and $45M sitting out there waiting to be had next offseason? I dunno but I guess we’ll find out in ten months.

It’s easy to say the Yankees should re-sign Betances after the season — as far as I’m concerned, he should be a Forever Yankee — but gosh, who knows? Love the guy but he is quite volatile. You don’t have to try real hard to see a scenario in with Chapman opts out and the Yankees walk away from Betances. In that case, the Yankees would be better situated for 2020 because they’d have Ottavino and Britton, Green, and Holder, not just the latter three. There would be less desperation for bullpen help (in a crummy free agent market).

* * *

Remember, Ottavino would not replace Betances or Britton or one of the other primary end-game relievers this coming season. He would replace Tommy Kahnle or Luis Cessa or whoever would get the final bullpen spot otherwise. Ottavino makes the Yankees much better and the goal should be getting better given the current state of the franchise. There’s a time for a patience and a time to go all-in, and, right now, the Yankees should go all-in.

The way the Yankees are constructed, with starters who don’t pitch deep into games (because the team doesn’t let them), acquiring as much high-end bullpen help as possible is a necessity more than a luxury. The Yankees are a David Robertson short of last year’s very good bullpen and Ottavino would fill that role perfectly, that middle innings bat-misser. He’s also better than almost every top reliever scheduled to hit the free agent market year, so consider signing Ottavino now part of next offseason’s shopping as well.

Yankees sign Billy Burns to minor league contract

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(Brian Blanco/Getty)

5:30pm ET: The Yankees just announced the deal. Good timing. Burns did receive an invitation to big league Spring Training. He’s the super early favorite to be 2019’s designated September pinch-runner.

5:29pm ET: According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees have signed outfielder Billy Burns to a minor league contract. He has big league time and I assume the deal includes an invite to Spring Training. Burns joins catcher Ryan Lavarnway, infielder Gio Urshela, lefty Rex Brothers, and lefty Danny Coulombe as minor league contract depth pickups this winter.

Burns, 29, had himself a nice little season with the Athletics in 2015, hitting .294/.334/.392 (102 wRC+) with 26 steals and +3 WAR in 555 plate appearances. He was unable to build on that and has spent the last few seasons shuttling back and forth between Triple-A and the big leagues with the A’s and Royals. Burns is a career .270/.308/.353 (81 wRC+) hitter in nearly 900 MLB plate appearances.

Last year Burns managed a .255/.314/.316 (68 wRC+) batting line in 425 Triple-A plate appearances with Kansas City, and they did not give him a September call-up. Over the last three seasons he’s authored a .271/.339/.321 (78 wRC+) batting line in almost 900 Triple-A plate appearances. Burns is a switch-hitting speed and defense type. A switch-hitting version of a poor man’s Brett Gardner, basically.

The Yankees had to find Triple-A Scranton a center fielder this offseason and that led them to Burns. For all intents and purposes, he is the new Shane Robinson. Hopefully we don’t see Burns nearly as much as we saw Robinson. The Yankees still figure to add a journeyman innings starter on a minor league deal for the RailRiders at some point, otherwise they might be done with minor league signings.