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River Ave. Blues » 2010 ALCS

To second-guess or not to second-guess?

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it’s 3 a.m and thoughts of the League Championship Series are dancing through my head. After a magical ride in 2009, this year’s early exit after a 5-4 postseason sure is a downer. We didn’t offer up much in the way of a recap, and I wanted to offering some of my own musings on the series here.

For much of the end of 2010, Joe Girardi came under the microscope. He knew the Yanks were going to make the playoffs, and instead of pushing hard for the division — and home-field advantage — he rested his regulars and tried to get his banged-up team healthy for the playoffs.

By and large, it worked. Even though some of the crazed masses wanted the Yanks to take the meaningless AL East crown, the Wild Card Yankees swept through the ALDS and won Game 1 of the ALCS in dramatic fashion against the Texas Rangers. After that, it all fell apart. The Rangers simply outplayed the Yankees, and every move the team made backfired. So before we get to the real analysis, let’s get this second-guessing out of the way. What moves did Girardi make that raise some eyebrows and how much did they actually impact the team’s chances of winning the series?

Game 2: Phil Hughes gets the ball

The first decision of the series that involved some raised eyebrows came when the Yanks handed the ball to Phil Hughes instead of Andy Pettitte in Game 2. Based on the numbers — Hughes’ home/road splits and his short history of success in Texas — and the desire to have Pettitte go in a potential Game 7 instead of Hughes, it made some sense. Plus, the Yankees wanted to send their playoff best against Cliff Lee at home. Unfortunately, Hughes bombed. He gave up seven earned runs in 4+ innings, and the Yanks couldn’t overcome his ineffectiveness.

It’s easy to make the case for Pettitte here. He too has home/road splits that favor the road; he’s the team’s second best starter; and the club has to get to Game 7 before they start worrying about Game 7. The Yanks knew it would be tough beating Cliff Lee, and a 2-0 lead going home would have been far more comfortable than a split in Texas. Still, the team plated just a pair of runs in that game, and Pettitte would have needed to be perfect to win. I don’t hesitate to say that going with Hughes wasn’t a bad move, but I do wonder why Girardi left Hughes in long enough to give up seven runs in a pivotal playoff game.

Game 3: Turning the game over to lesser relievers

Even though it maybe shouldn’t have even happened, the Lee/Pettitte match-up lived up to its billing. Pettitte threw one bad pitch to Josh Hamilton, and Lee threw no bad pitches through eight innings of work. It all fell apart in the 9th, and it shouldn’t have. Kerry Wood, the Yanks’ set-up man pitched, the 8th, but then instead of going to Mariano Rivera to keep the game a bloop and a blast away from a tie, Joe Girardi went with Boone Logan and David Robertson. By the time Sergio Mitre came in to clean up the mess, it was 7-0 Texas.

Game 4: A.J. for too long

The Yankees had to start A.J. Burnett in Game 4 of the series. For good reasons, the club didn’t feel comfortable pushing Sabathia, Pettitte and Hughes on three days’ rest, and Burnett drew the short straw. For five innings, he was fine, but things got dicey in the sixth. Vladimir Guerrero singled, but a Nelson Cruz fielder’s choice led to the first out. Ian Kinsler flied out, and for the second time in the series, the Yanks walked David Murphy intentionally. With Joba up in the pen and Burnett nearing 100 pitches, Girardi left his starter in. Bengie Molina took the first pitch over the wall, and the life sputtered out of the Yanks. The bullpen couldn’t keep the game close, and the Yanks lost 10-3. Another close game had gotten out of hand because Girardi didn’t pull his starter soon enough and didn’t go to his ace relievers.

Game 6: Who’s in the pen?

Last night, we again saw Girardi push his starter to far and go to the wrong reliever. This time, the damage came in the bottom of the 5th. Hughes had flittered with disaster all night, and with two outs and a runner on third, the Yanks opted to intentionally walk Josh Hamilton to face Vladimir Guerrero. Vlad blasted a two-run double to center, and the Yanks handed the ball over to David Robertson who promptly gave up a two-run jack to Nelson Cruz. Eventually, the Yankees used Kerry Wood and Mariano Rivera, but they reportedly had CC Sabathia in the bullpen. Why do you go with your lesser arms in that situation? Is it even worth it to intentionally walk Hamilton to face Vlad?

The real problem: offense

Yet, despite all of these second-guesses, despite the way Girardi’s pitching moves made a bunch of close games seem like blowouts, the Yanks’ real problem was one of offense, and it isn’t fair to lay this on the feet of the club’s manager. The Yankees scored 19 runs in five games against the Rangers while giving up twice as many. As a team, they hit .201 and had an on-base percentage nearly .100 points lower than the Rangers did. They went 8 for 53 (.151) with runners in scoring position. They simply got outplayed, outpitched and outhit by a good Texas team that got hot at the right time.

In a way, the Mariners sealed the Yanks’ fate when, on July 9, they baked out of a trade that would have sent Cliff Lee to the Bronx. Lee instead went to the Rangers where he put a playoff-bound team over the top, and the Yanks had to contend with CC and Andy plus two guys who lost the ability to get outs and a youngster with a lively arm who had far surpassed his career high in innings pitched. They rode these guys all the way to Game 6 of the ALCS and deserve our appreciation.

By all accounts, Joe Girardi will be back in the Yanks’ dugout next year, and he should be. He’s managed this team to a World Series title and with a very successul regular season track record. He seemed to push all the wrong buttons this ALCS but should use it as a learning experience. What works in the regular season doesn’t quite work in the playoffs, and as the outs slip away, match-ups should take a back seat to urgency. He can’t, though, will the bats to hit, and the Yanks will just have to dust themselves off and do what 29 other teams have to do: Wait ’til next year.

ALCS Game Six: Yankees @ Rangers

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(AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

We’re all pretty familiar with the Rangers after five games, so there’s no need for a cheesy introduction. Phil Hughes needs to keep their lineup in check while his teammates put a hurting on Colby Lewis. Sounds easy, but it hardly ever is. There’s nothing more we can do than sit back and watch, and maybe pray a little. Just win and force a Game Seven. Worry about that then.

CC Sabathia is available in relief, and I suspect A.J. Burnett is as well if it comes down to it.  It’s do or die time (not literally), again. Here are the lineups…

Yankees
1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Curtis Granderson, CF
3. Robbie Cano, 2B
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Lance Berkman, 1B
6. Nick Swisher, RF
7. Jorge Posada, C
8. Marcus Thames, DH
9. Brett Gardner, LF

Phil Hughes (18-8, 4.19 ERA)

Rangers
1. Elvis Andrus, SS
2. Michael Young, 3B
3. Josh Hamilton, CF
4. Vlad Guerrero, DH
5. Nelson Cruz, RF
6. Ian Kinsler, 2B
7. David Murphy, LF
8. Bengie Molina, C
9. Mitch Moreland, 1B

Colby Lewis (12-13, 3.72 ERA)

First pitch is scheduled for 8:07pm ET and can be seen on TBS. Enjoy the game, go Yankees.

All Hands On Deck

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(AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

On the brink of elimination, the Yankees and Joe Girardi had to pull out all the stops to secure a win in Wednesday’s Game Five. Thankfully the offense woke up a bit, so they didn’t have to resort anything too extreme, but Mariano Rivera was available for up to seven outs if needed. He’s done that just once in the last 53 months. It’s a win or go home situation, and that tells you just how desperate the Yanks were.

Unfortunately, things don’t get any easier from here. The Yanks are still facing elimination in Game Six later tonight, and once again they’ll have to pull out all the stops to save their season. That includes using Mo for multiple innings on back-to-back days, using other relievers in roles they might not be used too, and sometimes even bringing a starter out of the bullpen.

Game Five starter CC Sabathia told reporters during Thursday’s workout that he’ll be available to pitch in relief in Game Six. “I can probably throw 45 pitches, 50,” said the Yanks ace, definitely not an insignificant number of pitches. Perpetually confident, Sabathia declared that he would then throw another side session when (not if) the Yanks win in preparation for the World Series. We’ve known that CC is a team first guy for two years now, but this pretty much seals it.

Of course, going with your ace out of the bullpen is hardly a guarantee of success. The Phillies dropped Game Four of the NLCS two days ago when Roy Oswalt retired just one batter before allowing the Giants to score the winning run in the bottom of the ninth. Charles Nagy took the loss in Game Seven of the 1997 World Series, though that’s a special case since the game was in extra innings. One the other hand, the Yanks have first-hand knowledge of how devastating it can be to bring a starter out of the bullpen. Mike Mussina cleaned up Roger Clemens’ mess and then some in Game Seven of the 2003 ALCS, and I don’t think we need to re-live Randy Johnson’s heroics in both 1995 and 2001.

It’s the kind of move that’s ripe for second guessing. If the starter doesn’t get the job done in relief, everyone questions why he was brought in in the first place. If the regular relievers blow the game, everyone wants to know why the starter wasn’t in there. Managers get paid the big bucks to make that call, and Girardi will presumably have to decide between his setup crew (David Robertson, Boone Logan, and Joba Chamberlain) or his ace on two days rest after throwing 112 high-stress pitches in Game Five. I’m not Girardi, but for me the choice is clear: give me Sabathia eight days a week and twice on Sundays.

Given what he said, Sabathia probably available for two innings or so. Fifty pitches is a lot and should be more than enough for three innings, but I bet they’ll be just a little on the cautious side given their long-term commitment to him. That said, whatever needs to be done will be done, especially with Hughes on what we assume will be a short leash. Unlike Joba and D-Rob, CC has proven capable of retiring the Texas batters on a consistent basis (SSS), and he’s big and strong enough that the short rest isn’t much of a concern. It is his normal throw day, after all. If there’s a chance for Sabathia to take the ball from Hughes and hand it right off to Mo with the season on the line, I think that’s the route Girardi has to go. If CC isn’t needed in Game Six, then he’ll be available in Gave Seven. If you’re going to lose, lose with our best on the mound.

I hope Hughes renders this moot with a dominant and lengthy outing later tonight, something akin to what he did against the Twins in the ALDS. But anything short of that, Sabathia should be the first one out of the bullpen in any situation short of a Yankee blowout. There’s zero margin for error in Yankeeland right now, and the ball needs to be in the hands of the team’s best pitchers, period.

Spare parts, but now so much more

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When the Yankees extended their season by taking Game Five yesterday, they did so thanks to the performances of their star players. Robbie Cano hit his fourth homer of the ALCS, Alex Rodriguez doubled to set-up a rally and drew two walks, Jorge Posada drove in the first run of the game and then came around to score, CC Sabathia provided six hard-fought innings, and Mariano Rivera was there to close things out in the ninth. The team’s best players were their best players in the most important game of the season, but let’s not understate the contributions they received from their deadline pickups.

(AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

Mark Teixeira’s season came to an abrupt end in Game Four when his right hamstring popped running down to first, so Lance Berkman is now stepping in as the Yanks’ full-time first baseman. I don’t know about you, but I’d have called you crazy if you woulda told me in April that Berkman would be the team’s everyday first baseman in the ALCS. Does not compute.

Anyway, Fat Elvis dusted off his first baseman’s mitt and took to the field for just the eighth time in forty games as a Yankee. I know he had some adventurous plays down in Tampa early on and even had that nasty spill yesterday, but overall Berkman is a solid defensive first baseman (his +13.1 UZR over the last three years is basically identical to Tex’s, for what it’s worth) capable of making all the routine plays plus a little more. He won’t make the flashy plays or the throws that Teixeira can, but it’s not like the Yankees had to resort to trotting Jason Giambi out there in the postseason.

Despite batting righthanded, by far his weaker side this season (.236 wOBA), Puma managed to contribute some offensively in Game Five, drawing a walk and driving in a run with a well-struck sac fly. His approach was rather simple; he just took everything not in his happy zone, which resulted in 22 pitches seen in just four plate appearances. The potential was there for zero offensive contribution, but Berkman’s been a great hitter for a long time and he found a way to chip in anything he could from his weak side. That’s all you could ask for from your backup first baseman.

After the Yanks had built up their lead and gotten all they could out of Sabathia, they handed the ball over to another July 31st pickup in Kerry Wood. The Yankee bullpen, a strength the entire second half, had faltered in a big way during Games Three and Four, allowing 11 runs and 16 baserunners in just five innings of work, but Wood was not involved in that disaster. The first batter he faced, the pesky Elvis Andrus, reached base on his eleventyith infield hit of the series, but some pitches and pickoff throws later, Wood caught him straying too far off second. Kerry had one pickoff since the 2006 season, but Andrus was his second of the ALCS. Lucky? Yes. Do you need luck to dig out of the three games to one hole? Also yes.

(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

Wood went to work against the heart of Texas’ order with the Andrus pickoff mixed in. He struck out both Michael Young and Josh Hamilton to end the seventh, and then came out to retire Vlad Guerrero, David Murphy, and Ian Kinsler in order in the eighth. David Robertson, Joba Chamberlain, and Boone Logan were horrifically ineffective during the past two games, but Wood stepped up in the must-win situation and give his club two big innings to bridge the gap between Sabathia and Mariano Rivera.

Berkman and Wood were ideal deadline pickups for many reasons off-the-field, such as low cost to acquire and short commitment, but on-the-field they made perfect sense. Both are veteran players with playoff (and in Berkman’s case, World Series) experience, but more importantly they bought into their role. Berkman’s a hero in Houston, where he played every single day and hit in the middle of the order for the last decade or so. With the Yankees, he was just a platoon designated hitter now pressed into a more important role. Wood was saving games for a last place team in Cleveland, and saves equal money on the free agent market. He joined the Yanks as just another cog in their deep bullpen, but emerged as someone much more important than that.

When the Yanks acquired these two guys at the deadline, none of us expected them to be this important with the season on the line. If you’re going to lose a player of Mark Teixeira’s caliber to injury, Lance Berkman’s a pretty damn good replacement to have. Should the regular relievers falter, having a hard-throwing strikeout machine like Kerry Wood to back them up is more than you could ask for. Neither player will be with the Yanks next season, but right now they’re doing everything asked of them and then some to help this team try to win a World Championship, and we appreciate that.

Yankee bats come alive, force Game Six

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For the first time in two seasons, the Yankees played in a true must win game on Wednesday afternoon. There was no wiggle room, it was win or go home with the Rangers leading the best-of-seven ALCS three games to one. Thankfully they were able to put the season in the hands of ace CC Sabathia, who delivered six classic grind-it-out innings, putting his team in a position to seal the all important win.

(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

Biggest Hit: Little League

When you’re struggling, sometimes it takes a comedy of errors to help score some runs. The problem was that until Game Five, the Rangers were playing sound if not downright spectacular defense as a team, so the Yanks weren’t getting any breaks at all. That all changed in this game, which is exactly what they needed to get themselves back in the series.

(AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

Jorge Posada had already driven in the first run of the game (more on that in a sec) in the second inning and stood on first base with Lance Berkman parked 90 feet ahead of him. There was just one out in the inning when Curtis Granderson stepped to the plate, the only Yankee other than Robbie Cano to do much of anything offensively in the series. C.J. Wilson went after him with a fastball (called strike) and then a curveball (ball) before going back to the heater, which Grandy flipped into shallow right for a single. Berkman scored and Posada chugged around second towards third.

Jeff Francoeur was in right and handled the ball, firing towards third to get the slow Posada. The throw beat him to the bag easily, by about ten feet, but it was a little high and Michael Young missed the catch. The ball hit the rail in front of the Ranger dugout, and Jorge rounded third and headed home. Wilson grabbed the ball in foul territory and flipped it home, and again the throw had Posada beat by a good ten feet. Except it was too high, clearly over the leaping Matt Treanor. Georgie should have been thrown out at two different bases on the play, but he instead crossed the plate with the team’s third run of the inning and game. The WPA swing on this sucker was +.138, the single biggest play of the game.

Honorable Mention: Jorge Starts The Scoring

It’s no secret that the Yanks have had trouble scoring in the series, pushing just five runs across in Games Two through Four. They had also developed the nasty habit of allowing the other team to score first, so when Posada grounded a 2-0 fastball through the left side of the infield to drive in Alex Rodriguez for the first run of the game, it was a huge relief to everyone watching at home. It was just a measly one run lead in the second inning, and the team scored more on Granderson’s play one batter later, but holy cow was that big. It all started right here.

Biggest Out: Moreland Looks At Strike Three


(AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

I’m taking the subjective route this time, because the WPA scores are stupid. Apparently the most important defensive play of the game for the Yanks was Michael Young’s double play in the first inning (-.074 WPA). Pfft, yeah right.

Instead, I’m going to fast forward a few innings to the sixth, when the Yanks held a big enough but not really all that comfortable 6-2 lead. Sabathia was over the century mark in terms of pitches and starting to labor, and Texas had already scored a run when Matt Treanor hit a weak grounder with the bases loaded and one out. Mitch Moreland, who has proven to be a real pain in the ass at the bottom of the order, had a chance to bring his team to within two with a single.

Moreland had fouled off four of six pitches before singling in the fifth inning, and he went right back to the work in the sixth. CC started him away with a slider for a swing-and-a-miss before missing with a fastball to even the count. That’s when we went heavy with the offspeed stuff. The next three pitches were two sliders and a fastball that Moreland fouled off, then he took a fastball out of the zone for a ball before fouling off yet another slider. Sabathia was at 111 pitches and walking the tight rope, but he broke off yet another slider. This one was inside by design, freezing Moreland as it broke back over the plate for strike three. The threat was over, the lead was intact, and Mariano Rivera was that much closer to becoming a factor.

Honorable Mention: MVP GIDP

(AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

The Rangers had a chance to get back in the game in the fifth inning as well, after Moreland and Michael Young followed up Treanor’s solo homerun with a single. Josh Hamilton came to the plate with an opportunity made a 5-1 deficit a 5-4 deficit with one swing of the bat. Sabathia didn’t just cave and give him a fastball, he instead started him with two straight sliders for a 1-1 count. The third pitch was probably a little bit of a mistake, a 95 mph heater elevated in the zone, but thankfully the likely AL MVP hit on top of the baseball, grounding it to second for the inning ending double play.

CC Grinds It Out

Two runs in six innings of work is a fine end result, but Sabathia certainly had to work for it. He gave up eleven hits, nine of which were singles, but he didn’t walk anyone. Texas fouled off 24 of those 112 pitches, and they put at least one batter on base in each of CC’s innings. To paraphrase Ron Washington after the game, Sabathia bended but did not break. Yep, bended.

It wasn’t a traditional ace-like performance in that it was eight innings of three hit ball or something like that, but this is the kind of game that separates the great from the very good. CC dealt with adversity every single inning, whether it be baserunners or bad command or both, but he found a way to make big pitches when he needed to and preserved the lead his teammates gave him. It was a big game by the big man in a big spot, and it was exactly what the Yankees needed.

(AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

Bombs Away

Robbie Cano had been a one man wrecking crew for the first four games of the series, hitting the team’s only three homers. The problem is that he was the only one doing much of anything at the plate, but obviously that all changed in Game Five. Two of his teammates joined in on the long ball action, with Nick Swisher whacking on a solo shot in the third and Curtis Granderson doing the same in the eighth. Swish’s was traditional big fly down the leftfield line, but Grandy’s was a laser beam, a line drive that couldn’t have been more than 30 or 35 feet off the ground as it zoomed into the rightfield stands.

Not to be outdone, Cano hit his fourth homer of the series immediately after Swish for back-to-back jacks. It was good to see the Bronx Bombers get back to doing what they do.

Leftovers

The Yankee version of the claw/antlers. (Photo Credit: Rebecca, Optimist Prime)

Elvis Andrus is rapidly becoming one of my most hated players. The guy’s luck is unreal, with two more infield singles in this game, including one that stopped rolling literally on the foul line. Needless to say, I certainly enjoyed watching Kerry Wood pick him off second in the seventh inning.

Speaking of Wood, how about the work that guy did? Andrus’ infield single was the only baserunner he allowed in two innings, when he struck out three on 28 pitches (21 strikes). Mo was available for up to seven outs if needed, but Wood made sure he wasn’t by doing a phenomenal job of bridging the gap between CC and Sandman. Can’t say enough for how important that was given the bullpen’s recent struggles.

(AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

Scary moment for Berkman in the fourth inning; he slipped and fell flat on his back on the warning track chasing after an Ian Kinsler pop-up. He somehow didn’t hit his head, but he knocked the wind out of himself and said he was sore from his neck to his butt. Puma stayed in the game (and switched from rubber to metal spikes) and even produced a little with the bat from the right side, drawing a walk and driving in a run with a sac fly.

As for the rest of the offense, Derek Jeter reached base twice (single, walk) in five plate appearances, coaxing 25 pitches out of the Rangers’ staff. Swish walked in addition to the homer while Grandy picked up two more hits besides his big fly. One of those two was a double deep into the leftfield corner off a lefthander, something he never ever would have been able to do three months ago. Even his outs are loud these days. A-Rod doubled (ground rule style) and walked twice, and Posada had a double in addition to the RBI single in the second. All told, everyone except Brett Gardner reached base, and everyone except Gardner and Marcus Thames (who walked intentionally) reached base at least twice. They needed a game like this.

WPA Graph & Box Score

It never feels as easy as the graph makes it look, does it? MLB.com has your box score and video, FanGraphs some other stuff.

Up Next

Day off on Thursday, then Game Six on Friday will feature Phil Hughes against Colby Lewis. The Yankees are playing with house money now. No one expects them to win the series, so the pressure’s all on Texas. Make sure you enjoy the games, it’s nice to be the team no one expects anything out of for once.