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River Ave. Blues » 2016 Season Preview » Page 3

The Closer Turned Setup Man [2016 Season Preview]

March 15, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

It’s not often a closer loses his job after saving 36 games and posting the second highest strikeout rate in baseball. That’s exactly what happened to Andrew Miller this offseason, as the Yankees bumped him from the ninth inning in favor of new pickup Aroldis Chapman. Most players would be upset with the demotion if not outright angry. Not Miller.

“It wouldn’t be very welcoming on my end, or very appreciative on my end, toward a lot of people,” said Miller when asked about losing his closer’s job after reporting to Spring Training last month. “I don’t want to make (Joe Girardi’s) life harder. I don’t want to make Aroldis’ life harder. You know, we all want to win. That’s something that all the veteran guys want, that’s their goal, and then hopefully the young guys see that and hopefully fall into line with that.”

Miller has had that same mentality since arriving in New York last year. His role is not important as long as he helps the team win. “For what they’re paying me, I’ll do anything,” he famously said to reporters after Girardi officially named him the closer last May. Lots of players say they’ll do whatever the team asks of them. We hear it all the time. Few seem as sincere as Miller.

Of course, the Yankees tried to trade Miller over the winter, even before acquiring Chapman. Well, maybe “tried to trade” isn’t the best way to put it. As far as we know they weren’t actively shopping him, but they did let teams know he was available at the right price, and that right price included a young starting pitcher. There were talks with the Astros about Vincent Velasquez and Lance McCullers Jr., plus rumors of the Dodgers and Cubs being interested.

Nothing happened, so Miller remains a Yankee and is about to begin the second season of what has already become a bargain four-year, $36M contract. It’s not often big money free agent reliever contracts look so good even one year in. Miller had a 1.90 ERA (2.16 FIP) with a 40.7% strikeout rate and an 8.1% walk rate in 61.2 innings last year despite missing a month with a forearm issue. That’s elite production worth more than $9M a year.

Miller actually added a tiny little bit of velocity last season, with his heater jumping from 94.9 mph in 2014 to 95.1 mph in 2015. His bread and butter is the slider though, a slider Miller actually threw more often than his fastball (54.8% to 45.2%) last year. Throwing that many sliders is generally not a good idea from a “keep your arm healthy” point of view. In a perfect world Miller would scale back his slider usage a tad going forward for the sake of self-preservation. Then again, fewer sliders likely means less success because the pitch is so good. Hitters look helpless against it.

The combination of the forearm issue and extreme slider usage — only Sergio Romo (58.8%), Al Alburquerque (55.6%), and Shawn Kelley (54.9%) threw a higher percentage of sliders among relievers in 2015 — are enough of a red flag to remind you Miller isn’t perfect. Relievers tend to go poof without warning as it is. Add in a previous arm injury — however minor it may have been — and a slider heavy approach and you’ve got someone who carries risk. Maybe that’s why the Yankees were open to trading him.

Either way, the Yankees have already announced Miller will close during Chapman’s suspension. Once Chapman returns, Miller will slide into a setup role and team with Dellin Betances to form what has a chance to be the best setup tandem in history. Ideally, Miller would face the tough lefties in the seventh or eighth inning while Betances faces the tough righties. It probably doesn’t matter though. They’re both so good against batters on either side of the plate.

Girardi has shown over the years that he likes to assign his relievers set innings. He likes to have an eighth inning guy and he likes to have a seventh inning guy whenever possible. Miller closed last season and the natural move would be to bump him back into the eighth inning. Girardi has also talked about using only two of the big three relievers in any given game to make sure one is always fresh the next day, though we’ll see what happens when the games begin. Miller doesn’t seem to care how he’s used as long as the team wins.

“I’m just trying to get ready. I’m trying to throw the ball as well as possible and then I’ll deal with the situations when we get to games. It’ll be a little bit of an adjustment but I don’t think it’ll be tough,” he said. “Whatever’s asked of us, we’ll be ready.”

Filed Under: Players Tagged With: 2016 Season Preview, Andrew Miller

The Latest New Closer [2016 Season Preview]

March 14, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

The Yankees made a controversial trade this past offseason. It wasn’t controversial from a talent standpoint. In fact, this might the only trade during the RAB era in which everyone agrees the Yankees made out like bandits in terms of the talent exchanged. That never happens. Usually more than few folks are happy to say New York got fleeced. Not this time.

The trade: prospects Eric Jagielo, Rookie Davis, Caleb Cotham, and Tony Renda to the Reds for closer Aroldis Chapman. It’s a four-for-one swap that is essentially a two-for-one swap because Jagielo and Davis were the only actual prospects involved, though neither appeared on any of the top 100 lists published this spring. Cotham is a 28-year-old rookie and Renda went unpicked in December’s Rule 5 Draft.

The Yankees were able to acquire Chapman on the cheap because of a domestic dispute incident at his Miami home in October. Chapman had been traded to the Dodgers at the Winter Meetings — the two sides agreed to the deal — but Los Angeles walked away once the details of the incident came to light. Chapman allegedly choked and pushed his girlfriend, and he admitted to firing eight shots from a handgun in his garage.

The trade came with instant backlash. Brian Cashman admitted the Yankees made the deal because the Reds lowered their asking price after reports of the incident surfaced, so the team used a domestic violence investigation to benefit on the field, which is gross as hell. I hope they never ever ever do it again. Several women’s rights groups protested the trade and New York City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito said the team should be boycotted.

People were (and still are, really) mad and it’s not difficult to understand why. Chapman was not arrested, but the allegations were ugly, and the possibility of a suspension loomed. Ultimately, no criminal charges were filed against Chapman and MLB suspended him 30 games under their new domestic violence policy. He agreed not to appeal the ban, likely because MLB threatened a longer suspension, which could have delayed his free agency.

Now that the investigations are complete and the suspension has been levied, Chapman and the Yankees can move forward and focus on baseball. They’ll have to come up with a plan to make sure he’s ready as soon as the suspension ends, though that shouldn’t be a huge deal. Chapman can pitch in Extended Spring Training games in the meantime. It’s not like he’s a hitter who needs to get his rhythm or a starter who has to get stretched out.

The addition of Chapman adds another elite reliever to a bullpen that already had two of them in Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller. In fact, Betances, Chapman, and Miller rank first, sixth, and ninth in projected 2016 WAR among relievers according to ZiPS, respectively. Three top nine relievers is pretty awesome, especially since it could easily end up being three top five relievers. These guys are that good. Anyway, here’s some more on Chapman.

Chapman Is Insanely Good

There seem to be a lot of people trying to minimize Chapman’s impact for whatever reason. The Yankees went 66-3 when leading after six innings last summer and that’s really good. It’s a .957 winning percentage when the league average was .882. It’s also totally irrelevant. Last year is last year. This is a new year. The odds of the Yankees repeating a .950+ winning percentage when leading after seven this summer are substantially higher with Chapman on board.

Last season Chapman had a 1.63 ERA (1.94 FIP) with a 41.7% strikeout rate in 66.1 innings and it was only his third best season in the last four years. Chapman is replacing Justin Wilson in Joe Girardi’s end-game trio and Wilson was very good last season. The Yankees don’t get to the postseason without him. Here is Chapman vs. Wilson:

Justin Wilson Aroldis ChapmanChapman was a lot better than Wilson last season and he projects to be a lot better than him this season. You needn’t look at the projection systems to understand Chapman is an upgrade. He’s a significant addition to the bullpen. That isn’t the say Wilson wasn’t good last year or won’t be good this year. It’s just that any objective measure tells you Chapman will be better.

There is a lot more to Chapman than his high-octane fastball. He’s got a good slider and a sneaky good changeup — hitters swung and missed 56.8% (!) of the time against his changeup last year — and his long stride makes his triple digit fastball play up. Chapman is a true freak of nature. Baseball has never seen anything like this guy before. It’s going to be a treat to watch him on the field this summer.

Another New Closer

Girardi announced Chapman will indeed close this season — Miller will close during the suspension, because duh — which isn’t surprising. Chapman has done nothing but close the last four years while Betances has proven invaluable as a fireman and Miller continues to express a willingness to pitch in any role. There’s no wrong answer here. Any of the three could close and would be awesome at it.

So, with Chapman set to close this year, the Yankees are about to have their fifth different closer in the last five years. Hard to believe after nearly two decades of Mariano Rivera, ain’t it? Check out the list:

2012: Rafael Soriano (while Mo was hurt)
2013: Rivera
2014: David Robertson
2015: Miller
2016: Chapman

That’s not just five different closers in five years, it’s five awesome closers in five years. Robertson probably had the worst season of a Yankees closer from 2012-15 and he had a 3.08 ERA (2.68 FIP). Most teams would kill to have a closer that good. That was New York’s worst closer in a very, very long time.

The crazy thing is this is almost all by design. Rivera’s injury was a dumb fluke, but otherwise going from Mo to Robertson to Miller to Chapman was all planned. It’s not like the Yankees had someone stink as closer and lose his job to someone else, which happens all around the league each year. Chapman will be the team’s fifth closer in five years and in no way is that a bad thing.

One & Done

All indications are Chapman will be a Yankee for one year and one year only. He will qualify for free agency after the season and the team doesn’t spend money these days, at least not on long-term deals. Chapman will have a chance to break Jonathan Papelbon’s record contract for a reliever (four years, $50M) next winter. I can’t imagine the Yankees will go there, especially not with one big money reliever already on the books.

The Yankees will be able to make Chapman the qualifying offer after the season and I think the only way they don’t tender the qualifying offer is catastrophic injury. A blown elbow or shoulder, something that will sideline him the entire 2017 season. That sort of thing. Even with a down year, I think the Yankees would be willing to roll the dice with a qualifying offer. Worst case scenario is they get Chapman back on a one-year contract in 2017. The big salary doesn’t scare them, it’s the multiple years.

So, barring injury, this trade will likely net the Yankees one year of Chapman (well, 132 games of Chapman) plus a supplemental first round draft pick after the season. That’s a pretty great return considering they gave up two good but not great prospects and no one off their big league roster. The Yankees took a massive PR hit with this trade. Hopefully Chapman’s on-field performance makes it all worth it.

Filed Under: Players Tagged With: 2016 Season Preview, Aroldis Chapman

Ivan Nova’s Contract Year [2016 Season Preview]

March 11, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

Ivan Nova has spent pretty much his entire career in someone else’s shadow. Coming up through the minors, he was always stuck behind more highly regarded pitching prospects like Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, and Manny Banuelos. Then when he broke into the big leagues, he was behind guys like Phil Hughes and Michael Pineda. Even David Phelps at times.

This season Nova came to camp as the second oldest of the team’s six starting pitcher candidates — only CC Sabathia is older — and he isn’t even assured a rotation spot. He’s coming back off a yucky 2015 season (5.07 ERA and 4.87 FIP) that started late because he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. The poor performance and the injury could be connected, of course. Then again, Nova was healthy in 2012, when he had a 5.02 ERA (4.60 FIP).

Nova is entering his age 29 season and his sixth big league season, and I still feel like we have no idea who he really is. Is Nova the guy who pitched so well in 2010 (3.70 ERA and 4.00 FIP) and 2013 (3.10 ERA and 3.47 FIP)? Or is he the guy who stunk in 2012 and 2015? Is he a fastball-slider pitcher or a fastball-curveball pitcher? He’s alternated breaking balls over the years too. Nova’s a mystery.

The 2016 season is Ivan’s last year before free agency, so it’s fair to call this the biggest season of his life. A good season along the lines of 2010 and 2013 will equal a handsome payday next winter. A poor season like 2012 and 2015 means Nova will probably find himself looking for a one-year contract to re-establish value. That’s a lot of pressure, and I can’t imagine it helps that he came to camp as the sixth starter. This is a tough spot.

That said, I’m pretty sure Nova’s going to end up making a bunch of starts this season. Upwards of 20-25, even. No team goes through a season using only five starters these days, and the Yankees carry even greater injury risk in their starting five than most teams. Heck, the Yankees go out of their way to use a sixth starter. At some point someone is going to get hurt and Nova will step into the rotation. It’s going to happen. Baseball is a son of a bitch like that.

The question is can Nova give the Yankees quality innings and put himself in position to land a nice payday after the season? When he’s been at his best, Ivan combined an average number of strikeouts with an above-average number of ground balls. Last year his strikeouts were down (15.3%) but his grounders were fine (49.0%). He also had close to no platoon split when at his best. Nova never did get enough credit for having success against both righties and lefties earlier in his career.

Last year though, left-handed batters tattooed Nova for a .311/.375/.524 (.387 wOBA) batting line. They struck out only 9.1% of the time too. Yikes. He was fine against righties (.300 wOBA and 21.6 K%) but lefties were unforgiving. Looking at the heat map of his pitch location against lefties, it appears he was a little more over the plate last season than he was in 2013, his last full season before Tommy John surgery:

Ivan Nova vs. LHB

The heat maps are from the catcher’s point of view and you’ve got 2013 on the left and 2015 on the right. You can click the image for a larger view. All the red is in the lower left corner, which means Nova threw most of his pitches to lefties down and away. That’s good. There were some more pitches out over the middle of the plate last season, which could be the cause of his problems or nothing at all. It could be sample size noise.

The book on Nova has long been that he has good enough control (the ability to throw strikes) but below-average command (the ability to locate exactly where he wants), and he also lacks deception in his delivery, so hitters get a good look at the ball out of his hand. His stuff is good. Nova’s fastball moves and he can throw a nasty breaking ball when right. Even his changeup looks pretty good from time to time. He just needs be really fine because hitters see everything well.

At this point of his career, it’s unlikely Nova will alter his delivery to add deception or improve his command in a meaningful way. Not too many pitchers make major changes to their mechanics after five years in the show. Guys like Charlie Morton are the exception, not the rule. That said, it’s possible Nova will be more consistent with his delivery this season, as he gets further away from Tommy John surgery. He never blamed his 2015 struggles on the surgery but he did acknowledge his arm feels “lighter” this spring.

If Nova can repeat his mechanics and locate a little better this summer, it could have a big time impact on his numbers. He left way too many mistake pitches over the plate last season and he paid for everything. Nova never seems to get away with a mistake. Limiting those mistakes has always been the priority and it can be hard to do that when you’re breaking in a new elbow ligament. Ivan’s not the first guy to have problems after elbow reconstruction.

This is a big season for Nova personally. He stands to make himself millions with his performance. Nova is also pretty important to the Yankees as their inevitably-will-be-needed sixth starter. He’ll be further away from Tommy John surgery, which may or may not improve his location and his performance against lefties. As much as he frustrates me, part of me will miss Ivan if (when?) he leaves as a free agent. Hopefully his final year in pinstripes is his best yet.

Filed Under: Players Tagged With: 2016 Season Preview, Ivan Nova

CC Sabathia’s New Knee Brace and His Missing Back Foot Slider [2016 Season Preview]

March 10, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

It has now been four years since CC Sabathia was last an above-average starter for the Yankees. He pitched to a 3.38 ERA (3.34 FIP) in exactly 200 innings in 2012 — he did that despite a bone spur in his elbow — and that fall he more or less carried the Yankees to the ALDS win over the Orioles. Sabathia allowed three runs and recorded 53 of 54 possible outs in his two ALDS starts. He was dominant.

Since then, injuries and general wear and tear have reduced Sabathia to near replacement level performance. He’s authored a 4.81 ERA (4.40 FIP) in 424.1 innings over the last three seasons, including a 4.73 ERA (4.68 FIP) in a team-leading 167.1 innings last year. Righties absolutely hammered him (.303/.352/.500 and a .370 wOBA) and his days of chewing up innings are long gone. Sabathia averaged only 5.77 innings per start in 2015.

The 2016 season is the final guaranteed season on Sabathia’s contract — he does have an option for 2017 that will vest as long as his shoulder stays healthy — and the Yankees have shown they will keep him in the rotation for better or worse. Sending Adam Warren to the bullpen last year when he had the lowest ERA on the staff tells us all we need to know about Sabathia’s standing. He’s owed a ton of cash and the Yankees are going to get their money’s worth.

And yet, in a weird way, there is a chance Sabathia will improve his performance this coming season. Is he ever going to be an ace again? No, of course not. But a return to respectability — getting even a league average performance out of Sabathia would be a big upgrade over the last three years — seems possible because of his new knee brace. He started wearing it late last year and had instant success in his final five starts.

“I feel great with it on. It’s kind of like a security blanket. If you watch me while I’m pitching, and you see me spinning off (the mound then you know I’m feeling my knee and it’s bothering me,” said Sabathia over the winter. “It really was two different seasons for me once I put the thing on and got comfortable and used to it. When I have the knee brace on, I can land and go towards the plate. It makes a huge difference in the way my pitches move, being consistent in the strike zone, and just knowing that I’m not feeling like I’m going to get hurt on every pitch.”

At his best, Sabathia used a mid-90s fastball to set up his impressive slider/changeup combination. I remember being surprised his changeup was so good when he first came to New York. I knew about the slider, that’s always been his go-to-put-away pitch, but the changeup was really good too. Lately, that slider has abandoned Sabathia, no doubt due to his general loss of velocity and age. Check out his vertical release point:

CC Sabathia release point

That’s what happens when you’re 35 years old and have nearly 3,000 big league innings on your arm. Sabathia’s release point has dropped over the years because he’s simply not strong enough to go any higher at this point, and when your release point changes, so does the movement on your pitches. The reduced velocity doesn’t help either. Sabathia once had a vicious mid-90s fastball/sharp slider combination. Now it’s more of an upper-80s fastball/sweepy slider combination. It’s not the same.

Let’s dig into some PitchFX data. Here are some measures of the effectiveness of Sabathia’s slider over the last four seasons, split between righties and lefties:

CC Sabathia slider

Sabathia’s slider is still pretty effective against lefties. The swing-and-miss rate has dropped from 24.8% to 15.6% the last four years, but 15.6% is still pretty good. (The league average is close to 15%.) Sabathia did hold left-handed batters to a .186/.235/.283 (.231 wOBA) batting line with a 29.2% strikeout rate and a 3.7% walk rate last year. That’s great. Not good, great. There are teams who would love those numbers from their well-paid lefty specialists.

Against righties though, Sabathia’s slider has become almost a non-factor. He doesn’t throw it nearly as often as he did four years ago because when righties swing, they never miss, and when they make contact, it tends to fall in for a base hit. That’s a good reason to abandon a pitch. The slider, the one devastating weapon that helped Sabathia bank hundreds of millions of dollars in his career, has been rendered useless when he faces batters of the opposite hand.

Glancing at the pitch location plots, it’s easy to see Sabathia is no longer able to throw his slider down-and-in to righties — the ol’ back foot slider, as it’s called — so he’s not getting those swings and misses. Check it out:

CC Sabathia slider location

Back foot sliders are supposed to look like a juicy fastball down the middle before they dart in under the hitter’s hands. Those plots are from the catcher’s perspective (you can click the image for a larger view) and Sabathia threw very few sliders down-and-in to righties last year. And it looks like when he did try to back foot a slider, it spun out in the middle of the plate.

That inability to throw back foot sliders to righties may be something that can be improved with the new knee brace if it does truly allow Sabathia to stay more in line with the plate, as he claims. There’s really nothing he can do about his reduced velocity and lowered arm slot, but if he can improve his location a bit and make that slider a weapon again, it could go a long way to helping Sabathia hold his own against righties.

The goal is not to get Sabathia back to the point where he dominates, though everyone would happily take that. Realistically, the goal is to simply be more effective against righties, and perhaps hold them to, say, a league average-ish .320 wOBA instead of a Machado-esque .370 wOBA. Sabathia can still have his way with lefties. If the knee brace can help him use the current version of his slider to keep righties off balance, it will be a big help to his overall performance.

Of course, beyond the on-field stuff, Sabathia is also coming off a stint in an alcohol treatment center, and while that sounds scary, it’s a good thing. Sabathia had a drinking problem — he’s been very open about it since checking into rehab — and he got help. He’s in a better place physically and (more importantly) mentally now. Does that mean he can stave off Father Time and become a better pitcher? Probably not. But it can’t hurt. It’s important that he got help though. Sabathia has to take care of himself and his family first and foremost. Pitching is secondary.

The Yankees are going to rely on Sabathia to lead their pitching staff in the clubhouse this year and contribute as much as he can on the field. Hopefully the new knee braces allows him to regain some effectiveness. Any little bit will help. At the least, the Yankees would like Sabathia to be a horse who soaks up innings every few days. I wouldn’t blame you if you expect Sabathia to have another season with an ERA near 5.00. The knee brace is a tangible reason why improvement is possible, however.

Filed Under: Players Tagged With: 2016 Season Preview, CC Sabathia

Masahiro Tanaka and the Quest for 200 Innings [2016 Season Preview]

March 9, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

We’ve learned quite a bit about Masahiro Tanaka over the last two seasons. First and foremost, he’s as good as any pitcher in the league when he’s at his best. Tanaka has the ability to dominate any lineup. Remember his complete game win over the powerhouse Blue Jays in August? Of course you do:

We’ve also learned that even when Tanaka is not at his best, he’s still pretty good. He’s made 44 starts for the Yankees the last two seasons and he’s allowed more than three earned runs only nine times. He’s allowed more than two earned runs only 20 times. That’s two or fewer earned runs in 24 of 44 starts. Pretty good. Tanaka very rarely has a disaster start. In fact, he’s failed to complete five innings only twice in two years. He went four innings on Opening Day last year, and he had that 1.2 inning disaster in Fenway Park to close out the 2014 season.

These last two years have also shown us Tanaka’s health is a question. He was a workhorse in Japan, but he’s currently pitching with a partially torn elbow ligament and he had surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow over the winter. A forearm issue sidelined him for a month last year. Tanaka was limited to 136.1 innings in 2014 and 154 innings in 2015 due to the arm injuries. That’s the scary part; they’re all arm injuries. And yet, Tanaka says he’s ready to throw 200 innings this summer.

“I think I was able to clear some stuff out of (my elbow). I feel that it’s better this year compared to last year,” said Tanaka when he reported to Spring Training. The “stuff” he is referring to is the bone spur, which he insisted did not bother him during his starts. “As far as my conditioning goes, I’m at a pretty good place. I feel that for myself, I’m right where I want to be at this point.”

When Tanaka is healthy, he’s pretty good. Last year he had a 3.51 ERA (3.98 FIP) in those 154 innings — if WHIP is your thing, his 0.99 WHIP was the lowest in the AL among pitchers who threw at least 150 innings — and while that’s not ace-like, it’s pretty good for a dude with a partially torn UCL and a bone spur in his elbow. That said, there are some clear questions and concerns with Tanaka going forward.

How’s The Elbow?

From what I understand, ligaments do not heal themselves. The tear just doesn’t get worse. Tanaka has already pitched a season with his partially torn UCL and at this point he is one of the exceptions. Most players who attempt to rehab a partial tear never complete the rehab before undergoing Tommy John surgery. Tanaka is closer to Adam Wainwright and Ervin Santana, both of whom pitched several years with partial tears (Santana is still pitching with his), than guys like Matt Harvey and Drew Hutchison, who had to go under the knife before completing the rehab.

The ligament is going to hang over Tanaka’s every start going forward, and at some point his elbow may blow out. Maybe this year, maybe next year, maybe ten years down the line. No one knows when it’ll happen (that’s not going to stop a whole bunch of people from saying “I told you so!”). Last spring I was on edge with every pitch. That fear has faded, thankfully. Tanaka threw 154 innings with the partial tear last year. The rehab worked.

Beyond the ligament, the bone spur surgery is significant. The Yankees took it slow with Tanaka early this spring for obvious reasons, and so far everything is going well. During his first Grapefruit League start over the weekend, Tanaka was breaking off embarrasplitters like this:

If there are any lingering effects from the elbow surgery, we’ve yet to see them or hear about them. The Yankees went to great lengths to give Tanaka extra rest last season — he made 19 of his 24 starts with at least one extra day of rest — and I have no doubt that will be the case this year. He’s lined up to start Opening Day right now and yes, there is an extra day of rest between each spring start built into his schedule. Thanks to all the April off-days, Tanaka will be able to make his first four regular season starts with extra rest as well.

Tanaka’s elbow is healthy. The doctors have all cleared him and he’s completed all his rehab work. The partial UCL tear lingers uncomfortably in the back of everyone’s mind, and the bone spur surgery sucks in the sense that all surgeries suck, but there’s really nothing the Yankees can do other than give him extra rest and monitor him closely. That’s it. Pitchers get hurt. That’s what they do. Tanaka has managed to avoid catastrophic injury the last two years and hopefully that continues to be the case going forward. What else can you do?

Can He Keep The Ball In The Park?

When on the field last season, Tanaka posted very good strikeout (22.8%), walk (4.4%), and ground ball (47.0%) rates. He was equally effective against righties (.280 wOBA, 21.3 K%, 4.1 BB%) and lefties (.296 wOBA, 24.6 K%, 4.8 BB%) as well. Tanaka’s really good! I know a lot of people don’t want to believe it for some reason, but he is. I promise.

The only significant flaw in Tanaka’s game is his propensity to give up home runs. He allowed 25 dingers last season — 17 at Yankee Stadium and eight on the road — including a six-start stretch at midseason during which he gave up eleven homers in only 38.1 innings. Yikes. Tanaka also allowed two solo dingers to the Astros in the wildcard game. His 1.46 HR/9 was ninth highest among the 89 pitchers to throw at least 150 innings in 2015. His 16.9 HR/FB% was fourth highest.

The homers are a problem. There is no denying it. The vast majority last season came on mistake pitches thigh high and right out over the plate. It’s not like he was making good pitches and getting burned anyway:

Masahiro Tanaka

Hit Tracker classified 17 of the 25 home runs as either “Plenty” or “No Doubt,” meaning they cleared the wall with plenty of room to spare. Tanaka fell victim to some Yankee Stadium cheapies like everyone else, but the majority of the dingers he allowed last year were true bombs. He made mistakes and he paid. This is the big leagues, yo.

No one pitch accounted for most of the home runs. Tanaka allowed eight homers on four-seam fastballs, six of sinkers, four on splitters, four on sliders, two on curveballs, and one on a cutter, and that kinda sorta mirrors his pitch usage. Tanaka’s a big boy. He knows he gave up an alarming number of home runs last season and he knows the problem is simply too many mistake pitches.

I feel Tanaka’s unpredictability — he does throw six different pitches, including five regularly — allows him to get away with more mistake pitches than most, but he’s not going to get away with all of them. For a guy without overwhelming velocity — his average fastball last year (92.0 mph) has faster than the year before (91.1 mph) despite what everyone seems to think — Tanaka can’t live in the middle of the plate. If he can limit the mistakes, he’ll limit the homers. Easier said than done, of course.

* * *

I don’t know about you, but I am very confident in Tanaka’s talent and his ability to be an above-average starter. The homers stink, but he’s so good at everything else that they usually don’t burn him. (Nineteen of the 25 dingers were solo shots.) My only concern is health. If Tanaka stays healthy, he’ll be good. If he doesn’t, the Yankees are in trouble. Getting to 200 innings would be incredible. If Tanaka throws that many innings he’ll get Cy Young votes. But, if he only ends up throwing 180 innings because the Yankees give him extra rest in an effort to keep him healthy, that works too.

Filed Under: Players Tagged With: 2016 Season Preview, Masahiro Tanaka

Luis Severino’s Next Step Toward the Front of the Rotation [2016 Season Preview]

March 8, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

Heading into the trade deadline last season, it was pretty clear the Yankees needed some rotation help. CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova were struggling, Michael Pineda had just come down with a forearm issue, and Adam Warren was not stretched out after moving to the bullpen. Masahiro Tanaka and Nathan Eovaldi carried the load there for a while, and they needed help.

The Yankees tried to trade for a starter. They were connected to all sorts of pitchers prior to the deadline. Rentals, long-term buys, you name it. Nothing came at a price they liked. So, rather than trade for a starter — ten (!) starting pitchers were traded in the days leading up to the deadline: David Price, J.A. Happ, Mat Latos, Alex Wood, Mike Fiers, Mike Leake, Cole Hamels, Johnny Cueto, Scott Kazmir, Dan Haren — the Yankees dipped into their farm system and called up top pitching prospect Luis Severino.

Severino, who turned only 22 last month, came up and made eleven mostly spectacular starts, giving the Yankees 62.1 innings of 2.89 ERA (4.37 FIP) ball. Outside of Price and possibly Hamels, none of those traded starters could have given the Yankees as much impact as Severino. He was excellent, so much so that it was fair to ask whether he deserved to start the wildcard game. (Ultimately it didn’t matter who started because the offense did nothing.)

Coming into the 2016 season, Severino is not just the exciting young pitcher who represents the future of the rotation. He’s an important member of the team. The Yankees will need Severino to pitch well this summer in order to return to the postseason, and while that can be a lot to ask of a young starter, those were the exact circumstances he faced last year. Severino’s goals for the season are help the team win and continue to take steps towards the front of the rotation. I have two questions for 2016.

How Can He Improve?

Severino was really good in his limited look last season but there is definitely room for improvement. There always is. I already wrote about his need to get his slider down in the zone, and that’s a big one to me. Severino has really good stuff — he used three pitches (fastball, slider, changeup) regularly last year — and now he just needs to work on his location a bit. That’s not at all uncommon for pitchers his age.

The long ball was a bit of a problem last summer as well, and while Yankee Stadium is to blame for some of that, Severino shoulders some of responsibility too. Five of the nine homers he allowed came in two-strike counts, when hitters are supposed to be on the defensive, not squaring up hittable pitches. This goes back to Severino’s need to locate better down in the zone. Once he does that, some more balls should stay in the park.

Left-handed hitters also gave Severino some trouble, though you wouldn’t know it looking at the raw numbers. Righties had a .303 wOBA against him and lefties had a .314 wOBA. The difference is in the strikeout and walk rates. Severino had a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 6.9% walk rate against righties, and that’s awesome. Against lefties it was only a 17.3% strikeout rate and a 10.1% walk rate. That’s not so good. I’m not too worried about the strikeout rate, but I would like to see Severino cut down on the free passes against batters of the opposite hand.

We’re nitpicking at this point, which is a good sign. That means Severino has no obvious, glaring flaws that need correcting. His stuff is firm, he misses bats, and he gets ground balls (50.9%). He just needs to fine tune some things, like his slider location, his walk rate against lefties, and keeping the ball out of the middle of the plate in two-strike counts. These are normal things a 22-year-old must work on. Now he has to actually do it. Making adjustments is easier said than done.

How Many Innings Will He Throw?

The Yankees say Severino has no restrictions this year and there’s no reason to believe them. Severino is the crown jewel of their quasi-rebuild and they’re not going to put their just turned 22-year-old stud pitcher in danger by overworking him. “I’m not going to put a number out there. It can take on a life on it’s own,” said Brian Cashman last month, which more or less confirms there is some number they’re targeting.

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

Keeping Severino’s workload target a secret is the best possible thing the Yankees can do. Workload limits can become a distraction in a hurry. We saw the Joba Rules in 2007. They were unavoidable. There was also the Stephen Strasburg shutdown — people are still talking about that — and even last fall Matt Harvey’s innings were talked about non-stop. The Yankees have a number. There’s no reason to put it out there.

Last season Severino threw a career high 161.2 innings, up from 113 innings in 2015, so we’re talking about a 48.2 innings jump from year to year. The Verducci Effect, the theory that an increase of 30+ innings is dangerous, has been disproven many times over the years, but I can’t imagine too many teams are willing to push a young pitcher 50+ more innings one year to the next. Severino’s innings increase last year is the upper bound of what seems comfortable, if that makes sense.

Those 161.2 innings last year put Severino in position to throw something like 185-190 innings this year. Only seven pitchers have thrown 200+ innings in their age 22 season this century: Mark Buehrle, Mark Prior, Carlos Zambrano, Matt Cain, Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, and Madison Bumgarner. Prior got hurt the very next year and was never the same again. The other six proved to be workhorses who chucked 200+ innings year after year.

That means nothing as far as Severino is concerned. It doesn’t mean he has a six in seven chance of becoming a horse. Every pitcher is different. I listed those seven pitchers just to show how rare it is for a pitcher this young to throw that many innings. Severino’s in position to throw 200+ innings in 2016. My guess is he falls short by design. The Yankees like to give their other starters extra rest whenever possible and there’s no reason to think Severino is different. He might even get more rest than everyone else. He’s simply too valuable to the franchise.

* * *

The Yankees need Severino to pitch well and pitch often this season to help get them back to the postseason. At the same time, he is still a 22-year-old kid and his development is far from complete. He has things to learn and he has to physically build himself up to withstand the grind of a 34-start season. There will be growing pains along the way because there are always growing pains. The Yankees and Severino hope those growing pains are just a bump in the road on the way stardom in 2016.

Filed Under: Players Tagged With: 2016 Season Preview, Luis Severino

Michael Pineda and Getting the Results to Match the Stuff [2016 Season Preview]

March 7, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

It has now been four years since the Yankees acquired Michael Pineda from the Mariners, and during those four years he’s thrown only 237 innings due to a variety of injuries. His 2012 labrum surgery is by far the most serious physical issue — it wasn’t until 2014 that Big Mike actually threw a regular season pitch in pinstripes — but he’s also had lat and forearm problems. Health is a skill and Pineda doesn’t have it.

“My biggest goal this season is, No. 1, try to be healthy for pitching the whole year,” said Pineda to reporters when he reported to Spring Training. “I’m a young guy, but every year you have to learn how to get better and better … For me, this year, I’m coming here early to be strong and working hard to pitch 200 innings this year. I want to throw 200 innings this year. This is my goal, and help my team.”

Throwing 200 innings seems optimistic but it is not far-fetched. Pineda threw 160.2 innings last season around the forearm issue, which sidelined him for a month in the second half. He was on pace for 200+ innings prior to that. It’s important to remember starters are throwing fewer innings than ever before nowadays, so 200 innings is becoming increasingly rare. Only 28 pitchers threw 200+ innings in 2015. Five years ago 45 pitchers did it. There’s no shame in falling short.

Pineda wants to stay healthy this season and throw 200 innings and that’s great. That’s the sort of goal he should be setting, especially given his injury problems the last few years. The Yankees, however, should be focused on the quality of Pineda’s innings, not the bulk total. Last season he had a 4.37 ERA (90 ERA+) in his 160.2 innings, and he was both hit (9.9 H/9) and homer (1.2 HR/9) prone. It’s fair to say Big Mike was disappointing in 2015.

That has to improve in 2016. Pineda’s way too talented to be an average-ish starter. His strikeout (23.4%) and walk (3.1%) rates were excellent — only Bartolo Colon (2.9%) had a lower walk rate among the 79 pitchers to throw 160 innings in 2015, and only Max Scherzer (8.12) had a better K/BB ratio (7.43) — and thanks to his improving changeup, Pineda also posted an above-average ground ball rate (48.2%) for the first time. That’s all good. A 3.34 FIP? That’s awesome. That’s what you want to see.

And yet, opponents hit .278/.301/.451 against Pineda with a .332 BABIP that is a bit high but not outrageous. That includes a .250/.255/.423 batting line when he was ahead in the count. That looks good on the surface, but the league average batting line was .206/.214/.307 when the pitcher was ahead. Pineda performed way, way worse than the league average in those situations. Roughly 57% worse, to be exact.

It sounds weird, but Big Mike might actually be a guy who throws too many strikes. Throwing strikes is good! But you don’t want to be over the plate all the time either. There’s a time to strategically expand the zone and “waste” pitches for the sake of unpredictability. Pineda very rarely does that. Here, check out some PitchFX data:

Zone % Overall Zone % Ahead in Count Zone % with Two Strikes
Pineda 51.4% 57.9% 34.9%
AL Average 47.8% 45.8% 33.0%

Pineda throws pitches in the strike zone at a rate higher than league average in general, when ahead in the count, and with two strikes. The rate when ahead in the count is staggering. Pineda throws nearly 60% of his pitches in the zone when ahead in the count — when the hitter is on the defensive — even though the league average is around 45%. I mean, geez, waste a pitch once in a while dude.

Last season Pineda threw a first pitch strike 63.8% of the time, comfortably above the 60.9% league average. He went to an 0-2 count in 23.1% of all plate appearances last year, the 14th highest rate in baseball. That’s really good. Big Mike did an exceptional job not just getting ahead in the count last season, but getting into extremely pitcher friendly 0-2 counts. The MLB average was .171/.200/.259 following an 0-2 count in 2015. It was .203/.208/.333 against Pineda.

Hitters swung at 35.7% of Pineda’s pitches out of the strike zone last year, the fifth highest rate in baseball. They made contact with only 57.2% of his pitches out of the zone, the 15th lowest rate in baseball. Do you understand what that means? Whenever Pineda threw a pitch out of the zone last season, hitters swung at an extremely high rate and made contact at an extremely low rate. He got lots of whiffs on pitches out of the zone. This is good! Big Mike needs to do more of this. It’s not like he walks a lot of hitters and is prone to creating jams himself.

There is a balance to be struck here. You want Pineda to retain his aggressiveness and continue to get ahead in the count because when the pitcher is ahead in the count, batters perform worse overall. There is decades of data showing this is the case. At the same time, the Yankees want Pineda to do a better job putting hitters away when ahead in the count, and part of the solution can be throwing fewer pitches in the zone. That ostensibly would reduce the number of hits allowed since there won’t be as many square-up-able pitches around the plate.

The Yankees got pretty lucky. Pineda’s stuff has bounced back very well following shoulder surgery and he’s even managed to add a changeup, which was a goal following the trade. The quality of his stuff is obvious when you watch him pitch. That’s why Pineda was so frustrating last year. The stuff is there, the results are not. Pineda has the raw tools to dominate and we’ve seen flashes of that dominance. Now it’s a matter of tweaking the game plan to optimize the stuff.

I’m of the belief Pineda’s ERA will never match his FIP as things stand right now. Not as long as he calls homer happy Yankee Stadium home, and not as long as he lives around the plate so much. There’s nothing Big Mike and the Yankees can do about Yankee Stadium. They can control the game plan though, and using the hitter’s aggressiveness against him by throwing more pitches out of the zone — especially when ahead in the count — looks like a possible way to get Pineda to be something more than league average in 2016.

Filed Under: Players Tagged With: 2016 Season Preview, Michael Pineda

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