2016 Season Preview Archives - Page 4 of 4

Year Two of the Didi Gregorius Era [2016 Season Preview]

March 4, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

Last year at this time, the Yankees were preparing to begin the first season of the post-Derek Jeter era. The Cap’n had been entrenched at shortstop for the better part of two decades, and although Jeter’s game had slipped with age, replacing him was not going to be easy. All eyes were going to be on his replacement and the pressure promised to be intense.

The Yankees acquired Didi Gregorius from the Diamondbacks in a three-team trade following Jeter’s retirement and let him sink or swing at shortstop. Didi struggled the first few weeks of the season, no doubt about it, but he started to settle in around mid-May. He hit .294/.345/.417 (109 wRC+) in the second half and played the hell out of short. The Yankees were patient early in the season and Gregorius rewarded them.

Things figure to be a little more comfortable for Gregorius this season, if for no other reason than because he’s more familiar with his situation. “It’s going to come up anyway, it’s never in the past,” said Didi to reporters last week when asked about no longer having to worry about being the guy who replaced Jeter. That narrative is never going away, unfortunately. Most see this as Year Two of the post-Jeter era. I prefer to look at it is as Year Two of the Gregorius era.

“I started to pick up halfway through and try to keep it going this year,” added Didi. “Getting to know the (American League) a little better, that was the thing in the first couple of months. Hopefully I can stay consistent through the whole year. It’s an improvement year and you have to improve every year. Hopefully try and keep the same thing going and try to get even better.”

Based on everything we saw from mid-May through the end of the season, Gregorius’ defense might be the most predictable aspect of the Yankees going into 2016. I’m more confident saying Didi will be an outstanding gloveman than I am saying pretty much anything else about the team right now. Gregorius has very good range, good hands, and a crazy strong arm. His defense is no question. It’s going to be great.

That all means the 2016 season is going to be about his offense, specifically his ability to take a step forward and contribute a little more. Didi did hit .265/.318/.370 (89 wRC+) overall last season, which is a touch better than the .256/.307/.375 (85 wRC+) batting line authored by shortstops around MLB in 2016. Gregorius hit .272/.321/.391 (94 wRC+) against righties and .247/.311/.315 (73 wRC+) against lefties.

In a perfect world, Gregorius would improve to the point where he is above-average against righties and competent against lefties this season. That seems like a modest goal. Take a nice little step forward and begin punishing righties while making lefties work for their outs. That’s not asking too much, is it? He knows how to make contact (14.7 K% overall and 15.9 K% against lefties), so getting the bat on the ball isn’t a problem.

Didi’s batting ball splits are pretty interesting, because they say he both hit the ball harder in the second half and sprayed it around the field a little better. Check it out:

In the first half of the season Gregorius hit a ton of ground balls and he didn’t make much hard contact. In the second half, he hit the ball in the air way more often and he did a better job making hard contact. The spray data is neat too. Didi actually pulled the ball more in the second half, but he also went to the opposite more as well. He added some more balance to his game.

To me, that’s all good news. More hard contact and putting the ball in the air in a pretty good recipe for success. Didi’s not a speedster. He’s not someone who is going to put the ball on the ground and beat out a bunch of singles. He has the strength to drive the ball, and in the second half last year he did exactly that, drive the ball in the air and all around the field. This year I’d like to see Gregorius do that even more. More hard contract, maybe a few more balls in the air, and some more to left field as well.

Last season was all about getting Gregorius acclimated to his new team and his new situation. It was not his first chance at everyday playing time but it was his first full big league season, and he did it as the starting shortstop for the New York Yankees the year after Derek Jeter retired. That’s a lot to take on. Year One of the Gregorius era was about surviving all of that. Year Two is about improving. We now know Didi is a starting caliber shortstop. There’s also reason to believe he has the potential to contribute even more.

Carlos Beltran’s Swan Song? [2016 Season Preview]

March 3, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

Carlos Beltran’s first two seasons in pinstripes have been up and down. He was hurt and ineffective in 2014, as a bone spur in his elbow and some other maladies hindered him all season, resulting in a .233/.301/.402 (96 wRC+) batting line with 15 homers in 109 games. Add in his terrible right field defense and Beltran was a net negative for the Yankees the season before last.

Last season started off very poorly — Beltran hit .162/.216/.265 (22 wRC+) in April, yikes! — but Beltran rebounded in May and was the team’s best hitter the final five months of the season. He was pretty much the only regular who didn’t fall off a cliff in the second half. Beltran finished the season with a .276/.337/.471 (119 wRC+) batting line and 19 homers in 133 games. Much better than 2014. Much, much better.

Beltran is now entering the third and final season of his three-year, $45M contract. He will turn 39 shortly after Opening Day and he’s already hinted at 2016 being his last as a player. Beltran backtracked recently — “I guess it’s part of a baseball career where you might play 18-19 years and people are expecting you to retire, so (we’ll see) what happens,” he said to reporters after reporting to camp — but he is at the point of his career where retirement will be a hot topic.

Either way, retirement after the season or not, Beltran will indeed be in New York’s lineup in 2016. He’ll be in the middle of the lineup and he’ll spend most of his time in right field because Alex Rodriguez is the team’s primary DH. It’s not ideal — Beltran is barely mobile in the outfield, his best position is the batter’s box — but it is what it is. The Yankees intend to give all their regulars more rest this year and that no doubt means Beltran too.

Despite the ugliness of last year’s finish, the Yankees do indeed have a good offense — FanGraphs projects them to score 4.41 runs per game in 2016, ninth most in MLB — and Beltran is a big part of it. He is the team’s most well-rounded hitter in that he has the ability to hit for average, get on base, and hit for power. Other players on the roster can do two of three. Maybe even only one of three. Beltran can do all three.

Once upon a time defense was a big part of Beltran’s game, but no more. He was regularly lifted for a defensive replacement last year and I’m certain the same will be true this year. Beltran’s on-field value to the Yankees stems from his bat and his bat only, so he is facing three big questions in 2016.

Can he avoid another early season slump?

Like I said, the start to last season was very ugly. Beltran was also coming off surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow, so he had an excuse, and the Yankees were eventually rewarded for their patience. I know there were no shortage of folks who thought Carlos was done. Like done done. I was one of them.

There is no such excuse this season. In fact, Beltran recently told Brendan Kuty he spent the offseason working on his agility, so he’s 100% physically. That means any slump to start the season will not only hurt the Yankees offensively, but also create questions about whether he has anything left in the tank. The AL East figures to be crazy tight this year. Another slow start and the calls for Aaron Hicks (or one of the team’s many other 40-man roster outfielders) will be loud.

Can he stave off Father Time another year?

Here is the complete list of 39-year-old outfielders who qualified for the batting title and were above league average offensively over the last 30 years: Barry Bonds, Dave Winfield, Steve Finley, and Luis Gonzalez. That’s it. Heck, only nine 39-year-old outfielders have even qualified for the batting title during that time. Players this age typically don’t spend their days running around the outfield. The fatigue factor compounds the general “he’s old” concerns.

Beltran has been a great player his entire career and great players age differently than everyone else. That’s why Bonds and Winfield were so productive late in their career. Beltran is not looking to bounce back like he was a year ago. He’s coming off a strong season and the hope is it will carry over to 2016. Let’s face it, Beltran’s at the point of his career where his production is far more likely to go down than up. As long as it goes down only slightly, the Yankees will be in good shape.

For what it’s worth, the various projection systems all peg Beltran to be an above-average hitter 2016, albeit not quite as good as 2015. That seems like the standard great old player projection. Good but not as good as last year. Beltran is not a supplemental player for the Yankees. He’s a lineup anchor and someone they will count on to generate runs regardless of whether he hits third or sixth. As a switch-hitter who does just about everything from both sides of the plate, his importance to the lineup and the team’s offensive balance are obvious.

Can he thrive with extra rest?

In an effort to keep their veteran players fresh and productive, the Yankees plan to rest everyone more often this season, which means more time at DH and more time on the bench for Beltran. He started 120 games in the outfield last season. The target number this year may be 100 games for all we know. The problem? Beltran doesn’t like to DH.

“It doesn’t really excite me, being an everyday DH,” said Beltran last month before reporting to Spring Training. “For me, because my whole career I’ve been in the outfield. One day, two days … I’d do it. But I would love to be in the outfield. That’s something I enjoy.”

By now we know being a DH is not easy. We’ve seen players like Beltran, guys who have been playing the field every day their entire career, struggle to adjust to all the downtime between at-bats. More days on the bench poses a similar challenge; how do you stay sharp and maintain your rhythm with more time off? You may feel better physically, but what if your swing is off?

The Yankees are going to rest Beltran more often and he’ll have to face the challenge of adjusting to life with a little less playing time. No player wants to spend more time at DH and more time on the bench — my guess is Beltran will start something like three out of every five games in the outfield — but that’s something the Yankees will do because they want to keep guys productive all season.

Beltran’s a smart player and I don’t think he’ll have a problem adjusting. He’s also a team player who understands he’s not young anymore. The extra rest will help him. And hey, who knows. Beltran may find playing three or four times a week instead of every single day allows him to extend his playing career. This season might not be his swan song after all.

Mark Teixeira’s Contract Year [2016 Season Preview]

March 2, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

It’s hard to believe Mark Teixeira is already entering the final season of his eight-year, $180M contract. It feels like just yesterday he was poised to sign with the Red Sox before the Yankees swooped in to sign him at the last moment. That was, hands down, one of the most exciting days in RAB history. That Teixeira immediately led the Yankees to the 2009 World Series title was icing on the cake.

Teixeira, now 35 and turning 36 shortly after Opening Day, has had a mostly successful stint in pinstripes, no doubt with some injuries mixed in. He’s appeared in only 372 of 648 possible games over the last four seasons, and the Yankees have missed Teixeira dearly whenever he’s been out of the lineup. Greg Bird last year was the only adequate fill-in they’ve had. Others like Lyle Overbay and Kelly Johnson were just … no.

It appeared the injuries were taking their toll on Teixeira back in 2014, when he hit a career worst .216/.313/.398 (101 wRC+) with 22 homers in 123 games. His second half in particular was gruesome (63 wRC+). Wrist surgery sabotaged Teixeira’s 2013 season, so a year ago at this time we were hoping the poor 2014 was simply Teixeira struggling to get back to 100% after surgery. The further away he got from the procedure, the more effective he’d be, right?

Right. Teixeira hit .255/.357/.548 (143 wRC+) with 31 homers in only 111 games last season before fouling a pitch off his shin and suffering a small fracture. It was his best offensive season as a Yankee by wRC+ — he had a 142 wRC+ in 2009 — and he was the club’s best all-around player by no small margin. You could easily argue Teixeira was the team’s best hitter and best defensive player in 2015. He was that good before getting hurt.

Whereas last season Teixeira was viewed as a bounceback candidate, he comes into this season as a no doubt middle of the order presence who also saves runs with his glove. Teixeira reestablished himself as a core player in 2015, which means a lot will be expected of him in 2016, namely …

Stay Healthy

As I said earlier, injuries have been a problem for Teixeira the last few years. He hasn’t played more than 125 games since 2011. A few weeks ago losing Teixeira would have sucked but been survivable because Bird was going to be waiting in Triple-A. That is no longer the case. Bird will miss the season following shoulder surgery. The safety net is gone. If Teixeira goes down, we’re going to see an awful lot of Dustin Ackley and Chris Parmelee. Yeesh.

I suppose the good news is Teixeira has not dealt with any chronic injuries the last few years. Yes, the wrist surgery was very serious and possible flare-ups will be on ongoing concern, but it hasn’t given him trouble since. Last year he fouled a ball off a shin. It happens. Two years ago he pulled a hamstring running after a pop-up in foul territory. Back in 2012 he pulled his calf trying to beat out a double play, then rushed back and re-aggravated it. These are all dumb, mutually exclusive injuries.

Had Teixeira been dealing with a nagging injury over the last few seasons, say something along the lines of Albert Pujols’ plantar fasciitis or Matt Kemp’s arthritic hips, then I’d be much more concerned about his ability to stay healthy. He’s suffered a bunch of random injuries. Hopefully the extra rest the Yankees say they plan to give all their veterans allows Teixeira to avoid those sort of physical issues in 2016.

Get On Base & Mash Taters

Does anyone still care Teixeira is a dead pull hitter from the left side who is prone to losing hits to the infield shift? That’s so 2012. Last season Teixeira showed he can be very productive despite those shifts because he puts the ball in the air and he makes loud contact. His 35.3% hard contact rate ranked 36th out of the 211 players who batted at least 400 times in 2015, better than Jose Bautista’s and Justin Upton’s and Buster Posey’s and many, many more.

At this point of his career Teixeira is not going to hit for a high average. That’s just not who he is. He’s an old school masher who walks and hits the ball out of the park. Teixeira has consistently walked in 11%+ of his plate appearances over the years and when he puts the ball in the air as a left-handed hitter, roughly one in five batted balls have left the yard the last few seasons. (It’s closer to 15% as a righty hitter, which is still pretty darn good.) Those are Teixeira’s two best and most important offensive skills*. Walking and hitting the ball in the air with authority.

The Yankees have a very straightforward offensive strategy: Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner get on base and run a little, then Teixeira and some others (Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann) drive them in. That’s it. Nice and simple. When the Yankees do that, they’re dominant. Teixeira figures to hit cleanup again, meaning his job is to drive runs in and get on base for the power hitters behind him. That’s all. That’s what the Yankees need from him at the plate. Take those walks and grip it and rip it. No need to overthink this.

* Teixeira doesn’t get enough credit for being a low strikeout hitter. His 18.4% strikeout rate last year was below the 20.4% league average and tenth lowest among the 41 players to go deep at least 25 times.

Force The Yankees To Make A Tough Decision

Last week Teixeira told reporters he wants to play until he’s 40 and he would love to remain with the Yankees beyond this season. That’s nice to hear. Up until a few weeks ago, it was difficult to see how that would happen. Bird was ready to step in and take over as the long-term solution at first base. Replacing the guy in his mid-to-late-30s with the guy in his early-20s is a no-brainer move.

Bird’s shoulder surgery has cast some doubt on his ability to step in at first base in 2017. Even if his rehab goes well, he may need some time in Triple-A to shake off the rust and get back to where he was last season. We’ll have a much better idea of Bird’s status come the end of the 2016 season, but for now, we’re in wait and see mode. Shoulder surgery is serious stuff. The rehab could take longer than expected.

Teixeira will be a free agent after this season and the Yankees want to have to make a difficult decision come October. Do they give Teixeira the qualifying offer? Do they considering bringing him back as Bird insurance? If Teixeira’s performance suffers at all this season, say he repeats his 2014 showing, these questions will be easy to answer. No to the qualifying offer and no to bringing him back, then find someone else to play first if Bird can’t do it.

But, if Teixeira repeats his 2015 performance, or even produces at 80% of that rate, then what? Those qualifying offer and re-sign him questions become difficult to answer. I suspect we’re going to see more players accept the qualifying offer in future seasons given what happened to Dexter Fowler and Ian Desmond this winter. Teams shy away from players Teixeira’s age, so even if he has a big year, he might be worried about getting hung out to dry on the open market.

There’s no need to worry about any of this right now with a full season yet to come. The Yankees for sure want Teixeira to play well enough that they have to at least consider the qualifying offer and re-signing him in a few months. If that happens, the 2016 Yankees will have received from a very awesome contract season from someone who has been a very awesome Yankee.

The Summer of Al, the Sequel [2016 Season Preview]

March 1, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

At this time last year Alex Rodriguez was a complete unknown. Not only was he coming off his Biogenesis suspension in 2014, hip surgery limited him to only 44 games in 2013 as well. A-Rod was approaching 40 and had barely played the previous two seasons for several not good reasons. Could he still hit? Could he play defense? Did the Yankees even want him around?

It was easy to think the answers would be no, no, and no. And if that was the case, what would the Yankees do with Rodriguez? Bench him? Release him? Try to trade him? It was hard to imagine a trade being even remotely possible, and releasing him meant eating north of $60M in salary. Benching him meant playing with a 24-man roster. The A-Rod situation was shaping up to be pretty ugly.

And now, coming into Spring Training, Rodriguez is viewed as a key cog in the machine that is the 2016 Yankees. A-Rod is expected to hit in the middle of the order, and the Yankees value his leadership so much that they invited him to speak at Captain’s Camp because they want him working with their young prospects. Heck, prior to the trade deadline last year, Brian Cashman admitted to getting Alex’s input on needs and possible deals.

It has been quite a turnaround for Rodriguez over the last 12 months. He went from unknown and unwanted — at the very least, a large subset of Yankees fans didn’t want him — to an offensive linchpin and a key member of the clubhouse. Newcomers Didi Gregorius and Nathan Eovaldi both credited A-Rod for helping them make adjustments during their first season in New York. The Summer of Al was an overwhelming positive in 2015.

Now comes the hard part: doing it again. Rodriguez had the benefit of zero expectations last summer. Almost everyone expected him to stink, and if he was going to contribute to the team, he would have to earn it. A-Rod batted seventh on Opening Day, remember. Now there are expectations. A-Rod is the club’s best right-handed hitter and is no longer in a “whatever he gives us is a bonus” situation. He’s important.

The reality of Alex’s situation is that he is a 40-year-old ballplayer, that he no longer can play defense (the Yankees aren’t even going to try him at first or third base this spring), and that he has two surgically repaired hips. Great players do age differently than everyone else, but the history of 40-year-old hitters is not particularly strong. Seven players have qualified for the batting title in their age 40 season this century:

2014 Derek Jeter: 76 OPS+
2007 Kenny Lofton: 105 OPS+
2007 Omar Vizquel: 61 OPS+
2006 Jeff Conine: 86 OPS+
2006 Craig Biggio: 84 OPS+
2003 Edgar Martinez: 141 OPS+
2001 Cal Ripken Jr.: 70 OPS+

The most similar player to A-Rod in that group is Edgar, who mashed during his age 40 season, but that doesn’t mean Rodriguez is in the clear. That list is intended to show just how to tough it is to be productive on an everyday basis at age 40. All of those guys except Conine were everyday big leaguers at a young age. The game takes a toll physically. A-Rod was in the show at 18 and a regular at 20.

Based on everything they’ve been saying over the last few weeks and months, the Yankees believe the key to keeping A-Rod productive this year is eliminating the every day aspect. They want to turn him into a most days player, not an everyday player, which he was last year. That means more time on the bench, freeing up the DH spot for Carlos Beltran and Mark Teixeira and whoever else.

“We were trying and running him out to the field last year, and there were things that we were doing — I think he got a little bit sore at times just like any normal infielder would,” said Girardi to reporters last week. “He doesn’t have to deal with that this year … I think he has a better understanding of what it took and what it takes and what he needs to be able to do … He’s ready to go. He looks healthy. He’s strong.”

Because he is a DH and a DH only, A-Rod’s value stems entirely from his offense, which is a bit risky at his age. If he doesn’t hit, he has zero on-field value to the team. None. He’d be dead roster weight. The Yankees can’t do anything about Alex’s age. The only thing they can do is try to keep him as fresh and as healthy as possible, and hope for the best. I’m not big on projections, so I’m only listing these as a conversation starter:

ZiPS: .237/.331/.449 with 23 homers
Steamer: .239/.333/.410 with 19 homers
PECOTA: .244/.334/.418 with 22 homers

Last season Rodriguez hit .250/.356/.486 (131 OPS+) with 33 homers — by OPS+, that is the tenth best season by a player who qualified for the batting title in his age 39 season — and the projections are understandably expecting his power to take a hit this coming season. The on-base ability is fine relative to the batting average. Still lots of walks, which has been an A-Rod forte for years. Would a .240/.330/.420 season be a success? All things considered, I’d have to say yes, even if we’re used to much more from Alex.

As good as he was overall last season, Rodriguez was far more successful against lefties (148 wRC+) than righties (120 wRC+), and I bet Girardi and the Yankees will time his off-days so that he sits against northpaws. That figures to mean extra at-bats for Dustin Ackley and Aaron Hicks. The extra rest coupled with less playing time against right-handers could help Rodriguez remain productive and beat his projections (again). That’s the plan, I assume.

I love A-Rod — seriously, how sad will it be once he’s gone? — yet even I was an A-Rod doubter last season. Could you blame me? I’m happy he proved me and lots of others wrong. I’m not betting against him this year but I’m also not oblivious to the risks associated with a 40-year-old player on two surgically repaired hips. A-Rod is risky. And while last season showed he can still be a force, he’s reached the point of his career where he’ll have to prove himself again each and every year.

“This is a result-oriented business, so the team needs me to produce,” said A-Rod to reporters last week. “I never look at the season and think about numbers. I think about how can I help the team win and be available both on the field and in the clubhouse to give positive contributions, especially with our youngsters … At age 40 with two hip surgeries, I’m day-to-day. I plan to prepare hard and play as long as my body lets me.”

Jacoby Ellsbury and the Need to Raise Hell as the Leadoff Hitter [2016 Season Preview]

February 29, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

Two years into his seven-year contract, Jacoby Ellsbury has been more solid contributor than difference maker for the Yankees. He had a very good 2014 season while being miscast as the No. 3 hitter, then his 2015 season was totally derailed by a mid-May knee injury. Ellsbury was great to start the year, got hurt, and was awful thereafter. It earned him a spot on the bench in the wildcard game.

“Obviously I knew my team needed me to play. When I came back, you convince yourself that you’re 100%, you’re ready to go,” said Ellsbury to reporters when he reported to Spring Training last week. “I thought I was pretty close, but it wasn’t until the offseason — when I started working out, training, getting back — (it was clear) maybe I wasn’t where I thought I was. But you don’t have time for that during the season to wait to get there. I tried to get back as soon as I could, but it wasn’t really until the offseason when I started working out, training that (I felt normal). Now I feel 100%.”

Early last season Ellsbury showed he can still be a game-changing leadoff man. Before the injury it felt like he was on base three times a night and driving pitchers crazy by dancing off first base. Ellsbury’s ability to be an impact leadoff hitter has never been in question. The question has always been health and his ability to produce in a meaningful way when less than 100%.

Ellsbury, now 32 and 33 before the end of the 2016 season, is entering the phase of his career when age-related decline becomes a legitimate concern. Jeff Zimmerman (subs. req’d) recently recalculated aging curves based on different player types and found fast players — guys who stole 25+ bases with 8+ triples early in their career — tend to fall off quickly around age 32.

Every player is their own unique individual and they all age differently of course, plus Ellsbury is no ordinary speedster. He’s not, say, Willy Taveras or Chone Figgins. He has high-end contact ability, has historically held his own against lefties, and has hit for just enough power to keep pitchers honest. That ostensibly bodes well for Ellsbury’s ability to stave off a sudden descent into uselessness long-term.

In the short-term, Ellsbury’s importance to the 2016 Yankees is very high. He is arguably their best all-around player — I’d say it’s Mark Teixeira, but that’s just me — and the team invested an awful lot of money in his ability to drive an offense from the leadoff spot. We saw it last year. When Ellsbury fires on all cylinders, the offense is dominant. When he’s less than 100%, they struggled to manufacture runs.

It’s easy to understand how the knee injury could have affected Ellsbury’s offense last summer. Hitting starts from the ground up, and if he didn’t have a strong base, his ability to drive the ball would suffer. This all could have happened subconsciously too. Doctors declared the knee healthy, but Ellsbury could have altered his hitting mechanics to take pressure off the knee without even realizing it.

The interesting thing is Ellsbury’s batted ball profile didn’t change a whole lot after the injury. He did hit more fly balls, but not substantially so. Not enough to account for the 118-point difference in BABIP.

	BABIP	GB%	FB%	LD%	Pull%	Mid%	Opp%	Soft%	Med%	Hard%
Before Injury	.379	47.2%	28.0%	24.8%	38.4%	34.4%	27.2%	23.2%	54.4%	22.4%
After Injury	.261	44.3%	32.0%	23.8%	37.6%	35.5%	26.9%	24.1%	55.5%	20.4%

Ellsbury is neither a true talent .379 BABIP hitter nor a true talent .261 BABIP hitter. The real him is somewhere in the middle — he has a career .319 BABIP and set a career high with a .341 BABIP in 2013 — but it would be lazy to write this off as ball in play luck. The knee injury represents a tangible change. We just don’t know how exactly it impacted him.

More interesting to me than the batted ball data is the plate discipline data. Ellsbury has always been a low strikeout, middling walk rate hitter. He hasn’t drawn more walks because he’s always been good at putting the ball in play, not because he isn’t disciplined. After the injury, Ellsbury became something of a hacker and struck out more than he ever has as a big leaguer.

	BB%	K%	O-Swing%	Z-Swing%	O-Contact%	Z-Contact%	Zone%
Before Injury	11.2%	13.5%	30.7%	64.8%	82.3%	90.6%	44.5%
After Injury	4.8%	19.0%	34.2%	64.3%	68.1%	90.9%	50.8%

When it came to pitches in the zone, Ellsbury swung (Z-Swing%) and made contact (Z-Contact%) at the same rate both before and after the injury. Pitches out of the zone was the problem. He swung at way more pitches out of the zone (O-Swing%) and failed to make contact far more often (O-Contact%) after the knee injury, which equals way more swings and misses. That explains the major decline is walk and strikeout rate.

Could the knee injury have affected Ellsbury’s plate discipline? I believe it’s possible. Altering his hitting mechanics could change the timing of his swing and even the way he reads the pitch out of the pitcher’s hand. I am going to again refer back to these screen grabs I made last season:

They both show the instant Ellsbury’s front foot touches down as part of his leg kick. (He hurt his right knee, so his front leg.) The screen grab on the right is from before the injury, and the screen grab on the left is from after the injury.

Before the injury, the pitch had traveled much deeper by time Ellsbury’s foot touched down. He is already starting his swing (look at how he’s “loading” his upper body, so to speak) when his foot hits. After the injury, his foot touched down when the ball was just out of the pitcher’s hand. He had yet to begin his swing. That’s a problem! Ellsbury’s swing became more reliant on his upper body, which may have caused him to lunge at the ball.

This isn’t about last season though. This is about the coming season, and the Yankees will need Ellsbury to again drive their offense like he did early last year. Given his history, these are the two big questions about Ellsbury heading into the new season:

Is he healthy?
Can he stay healthy?

These are the Ellsbury Questions™ for this season and every season going forward. It’s all about health. When he’s 100% physically, Ellsbury is a dynamic leadoff hitter who disrupts the defense. When he’s something less than 100% physically, he rarely has an impact. That has been the case his entire career.

Joe Girardi and the Yankees have said they plan to rest their regulars more often this season and that includes Ellsbury. At a certain point injuries are going to be out of everyone’s control — Ellsbury hurt his knee when he caught a spike taking a swing, it was a fluke little thing — so all the Yankees can do is give Ellsbury more time on the bench to manage the nagging day-to-day stuff every player deals with. There’s only so much the team can do.

The general thought behind these big money long-term contracts is you take the elite years up front and live with the ugly years on the back end. The Yankees have yet to get those elite years from Ellsbury. Give the brain trust a truth serum and I’m sure they’d tell you they’d like a do-over on Ellsbury’s contract. What’s done is done though. Ellsbury is with the Yankees and he’s an integral part of the offense (and defense). When he goes, the Yankees go. Getting him to go more often in 2016 may very well be the difference between a great offense and one that struggles to sustain rallies or create offense outside the long ball.