Aaron Judge Archives - Page 3 of 55

What an Aaron Judge extension might look like

February 26, 2019 by Derek Albin

As we all know by now, Hal Steinbrenner decided not to back up the truck for this offseason’s free agent crop. However, Hal can’t avoid paying the piper forever. There are a litany of budding stars on the Yankees’ roster that are going to start getting a bit expensive for the owner’s taste if he doesn’t act soon. He and the front office took care of business with Luis Severino and Aaron Hicks already, but there are still other extension candidates. Let’s talk about Aaron Judge.

Maybe the Yankees will go year to year with Judge and let him test free agency after his age-30 season. That’s always possible. But the risk is that one of the other 29 clubs makes an offer that Judge won’t be able to refuse and Steinbrenner will be unwilling to match. Sound familiar? Yep, that’s what happened with Robinson Cano. Extension or not, it would be inexcusable to let the face of the franchise walk away in free agency (again), but that’s neither here nor there. Let’s stick to extension talk for the time being.

Other extensions to consider

Buster Posey: 9 years, $167 million

The Giants’ catcher was a super-two eligible player prior to 2013, but signed an $8 million deal to avoid an arbitration hearing. That deal was ripped up in order to sign an eight-year extension, thereby buying out four years of free agency. Posey was fresh off of an MVP 2012 season and still just 26 years-old, not to mention two World Series titles.

San Francisco paid Posey $57 million for his pre-free agency seasons. The rest of the contract calls for at least $110 million if his 2022 club option is decline and up to $129 million if exercised. Posey has accumulated around 30 WAR (depending on your version preference) since signing the deal. Is it safe to say he’s earned every penny? Yup, and then some. No regrets from San Francisco’s side. Posey probably could have earned more in free agency than 5 years and $110 million, but that’s still a pretty nice payday.

Mike Trout: 6 years, $144.5 million

Trout wasn’t a super-two like Posey, but signed his deal with two-plus years of major league service, where Judge is now. His deal didn’t kick in until after his third full season, so if you want to factor in his final pre-arb salary, it’s effectively a 7 year, $145.5 million deal. This, mind you, was after Trout racked up two straight 10 WAR seasons to start his career. The Angels struck a deal with the sport’s best player while pushing his free agency until after the 2020 season. Trout would have free to go after 2017 otherwise.

Trout got just under $45 million for his arbitration years and gave up three free agency seasons for another $100 million. Obviously, he would have shattered that amount if he hit the open market. To say that Trout got the short end of the stick would be an understatement. Yes, $144.5 million is a huge sum of money, but he would have shattered all sorts of salary records. Then again, he still might do that after 2020 when he’s just finished his age-28 year.

Structuring Judge’s deal

As great as Judge is, he doesn’t have the pedigree of either of the two aforementioned stars at the same time in their careers. That doesn’t mean he can’t match or exceed either of the guarantees Posey and Trout got.

Something I think we need to consider before getting into proposals are what Judge could possibly get in arbitration as an alternative to an extension. Here are the recent amounts players signed in their first year of arbitration eligibility:

2018 Mookie Betts: $10.5M
2018 Kris Bryant: $10.85M (Super Two)
2019 Francisco Lindor: $10.85M

Mookie Betts holds the second year eligibility record ($20 million) and Josh Donaldson has the final year record ($23 million). If Judge matches all of these amounts, that’s about $53 million from 2020 through 2022. I’d bet he could beat that, though.

Alright, now let’s talk about some proposals:

Status	Year	Annual Salary	Cumulative Salary
Pre-Arb	2019	$5M	$5M
Arb 1	2020	$15M	$20M
Arb 2	2021	$20M	$40M
Arb 3	2022	$25M	$65M
FA 1	2023	$35M	$100M
FA 2	2024	$35M	$135M
FA 3	2025	$35M	$170M

First of all, this gets Judge up to $65 million in earnings through his arbitration seasons. That’s a win for Judge. From there, it’s a matter of seeing how many free agent years he’d be willing to give up.

Without an extension, Judge’s first free agent deal would begin in his age-31 campaign. My inclination is that he should get $35 million per year by then, but who knows. Not only is free agency a strange place now, but a lot can happen between now and then too. A payday now quells any worries about decline or injury affecting future earnings. Then again, maybe Judge isn’t too concerned about money. He got $1.8 million out of the draft. That’s not exorbitant, but if well managed could be sustainable if something cut short his career. Further, he’s got a marketing deal with Pepsi which certainly helps him monetarily. He could wait it out and bet on himself for an absolutely gargantuan payday.

When I think of the Yankees perspective, I can’t help but think about the luxury tax. It really bums me out that it’s a consideration here, but that’s how the team operates now. A potential extension would result in a higher tax now and in the arbitration years, but in theory, it wouldn’t be a huge increase because the team is in the lower tiers. It’s the outer years of the extension that can save the Steinbrenners money because others like Gary Sanchez and Gleyber Torres will be getting their big paydays as well. Then again, a new CBA after 2021 could totally change the tax rules. Even though an extension provides cost certainty, Hal could be hesitant to pay extra luxury tax now without knowing what the system will be in Judge’s outer years.

Hal could use some goodwill. Signing Judge to an extension would help Hal with that. The stagnant payroll over the last decade has been a blight on the franchise even though he doesn’t feel that way. It would be nice to have some sort of assurance that the team’s stars aren’t going anywhere. I can’t help but be worried after watching the team pass up on superstar free agents this winter.

Final thoughts

There haven’t been any talks of an extension between the Yankees and Judge yet. The right fielder played it coy when asked about it, but hopefully it’s on the radar. Frankly, after passing on Machado and Harper, there’s absolutely no excuse not to pay someone like Judge. Hal has already mentioned the need to be sensible in advance of the baby bombers reaching higher earning years. It would be wise to be proactive rather than waiting until that day comes. Signing Severino was a good start. Hopefully Judge and others are next.

Feb. 19th Spring Training Notes: Judge, Britton, Frazier

February 19, 2019 by Mike

In case you somehow missed it earlier, Manny Machado agreed to a deal with the Padres. It’s a ten-year deal worth $300M, and it includes an opt-out after year five. Technically, the Yankees were not outbid by the Padres — the Padres! — because they reportedly never made an offer. I will try to avoid getting Mad Online. Here are the day’s notes from Tampa:

Not surprisingly, various Yankees didn’t have much to say about the Machado deal. “San Diego signed a really good player,” Aaron Boone said, which is way more than I expected seeing how Machado’s contract is not official yet. [Bryan Hoch]
Aaron Judge held a standard start-of-spring press conference today and said his fractured right wrist is completely healed. “It’s 100%. It feels like it never even happened,” he said. He added he hasn’t heard anything about a possible contract extension. “I’m focused on the season,” he said. That doesn’t mean his agent isn’t focused on an extension, of course. [Coley Harvey, Bryan Hoch]
Zack Britton was the only projected big league pitcher to throw live batting practice today. Trevor Stephan faced hitters as well and Clint Frazier took him deep. Here’s the video. Make sure you listen with your speakers up to hear that crack of the bat. [Bryan Hoch]
If you’re curious, Brendan Kuty has the day’s batting practice groups. Don’t read anything into the groups. They don’t tell you who has a leg up on a roster spot or anything like that.

We’ve reached the dog days of Spring Training. Position players have arrived and full squad workouts are underway, but the first Grapefruit League game is still four days away. Ugh. Anyway, the first four spring games will be televised.

Four ways the 2019 Yankees could be better than the 2018 Yankees

February 13, 2019 by Mike

Pitchers and catchers have reported to Tampa and the long journey that is the 2019 Yankees season is underway. Position players will report Monday and the first Grapefruit League game will be played one week from Saturday. Soon the beautiful monotony of Spring Training baseball will set in and we’ll all eagerly await the regular season. I love this time of year.

The Yankees, despite not signing Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, had one of the most active offseasons in baseball, one that saw them sign five notable free agents and make one significant trade. Believe me, the Harper and Machado thing irritates me as much as anyone, but you can count on one hand the number of the teams who have done as much as the Yankees this winter.

Have the Yankees done enough to close the gap on the Red Sox? I think so. You’re welcome to feel differently. The Yankees won 100 games last season and that’s an awful lot. It’s not often teams win 100 games in back-to-back seasons (only the 2017-18 Astros and 2004-05 Cardinals have done it within the last 15 years), but, with a talented roster, the Yankees have a chance to do it. Would be cool.

Now that Spring Training has opened, this is as good a time as any to take stock of the 2019 Yankees, and discuss why we should expect the 2019 Yankees to be better than the 2018 Yankees. The 2018 Yankees were really good! I see four reasons why the 2019 Yankees could be even better. Here are the four in no particular order.

Healthy Judge and Sanchez

For all intents and purposes, the 2018 Yankees played their final 61 regular season games without Aaron Judge. His wrist was broken by an errant pitch on July 26th, in the 101st game of the year, and he did not return until the team’s 147th game on September 14th. And, when he did return, he stunk. Judge went 9-for-47 (.220) with two doubles and one homer (.341 SLG) in 13 regular season games following the wrist injury.

Gary Sanchez was not good overall last season and apparently he wasn’t healthy either. His shoulder bothered him enough that he needed offseason surgery, and of course he spent roughly two months on the disabled list with groin trouble. It would be easy to blame the injuries for Gary’s down season. I’m sure they played some role in his poor year, particularly the shoulder, but there were some other issues at play as well.

The Yankees can go into this season reasonably expecting Judge and Sanchez to be healthy. Judge’s injury was a fluke and he showed in the postseason the wrist was strong. Sanchez’s shoulder has been repaired and he is already hitting in the cage and catching bullpens, so he’s on track for the regular season. The Yankees will ease him into Grapefruit League games because there’s no reason to push it.

Injuries happen and Judge and Sanchez could miss time again this year. That’s baseball. Neither has a chronic issue that dogs them year after year though — this isn’t Greg Bird with multiple years of ankle problems, you know? — and I think it’s reasonable to assume good health going into 2019. In this case, that means 90 or so more man games from Judge and Sanchez this year than last year.

Full seasons of Happ and Britton

At this time last year we were talking about how having full seasons of Sonny Gray, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle would help the 2018 Yankees be better than the 2017 Yankees, so yeah, this game can humble you quick (one outta three ain’t bad, right?). The logic is sound though. They had this good player for half the season last year and now they’ll have him for a full season this year.

I do worry a bit about Happ’s declining fastball spin rate because he relies so heavily on his fastball, but he was also rock steady following the trade last year, and he is essentially replacing the revolving door of fifth starters. Domingo German, Luis Cessa, Jordan Montgomery, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Chance Adams combined to allow 116 runs in 30 starts and 136.2 innings last year. They averaged 3.9 runs and 4.6 innings per start for 30 starts. I kid you not.

Happ has made at least 25 starts every year since 2014 and he’s posted a (much) better than average park adjusted ERA every year since 2015. Even at age 36, I feel like Happ is a safe bet to make 25 or so league average starts this year. Given who he’s replacing, that’s a big upgrade. With Gray, we saw some warning signs late in 2017, when he lost the plate and seemed overwhelmed. That wasn’t the case with Happ last year. He came over at the deadline and fit right in.

Britton got better and better as he got away from his Achilles surgery last year and now he’ll have a healthy and normal Spring Training after a healthy and normal offseason. “I went home (after the ALDS), took a day off and started working out the next day and I started throwing a few weeks earlier than I normally do … I just wanted to get rid of some bad habits I (developed after the injury) last year and get ready to go for wherever I was gonna play,” said Britton to Dan Martin the other day.

Full seasons of Gray and Kahnle didn’t help the Yankees last season, but Happ and Britton are more Robertson than Gray and Kahnle given their track records, are they not? Gray had a few moments that made you wonder what was up in 2017. Kahnle never found a set role before his monster postseason. Happ and Britton came over last year and never really missed a beat. They transitioned seamlessly and having them for six months rather than two months is significant.

Paxton replaces Gray

Gray was supposed to be the upside starter. The guy with multiple years of cheap team control who had flashed ace ability in the past. The Yankees hoped to bring it out of him permanently and the opposite happened. He was a disaster last season. James Paxton is cut from a similar cloth in that he’s flashed ace ability over the years and the Yankees are hoping he’ll pitch at the level consistently.

Paxton misses more bats than Gray ever did — Paxton had a 32.3% strikeout rate last year whereas Sonny’s full season high is his 22.6% strikeout rate in 2017 — and he’s been better the last two years than Gray was in his two years prior to the trade. As for the “he can’t handle New York thing,” I don’t know what to tell you other than James Paxton is not Sonny Gray. They’re different people. One has no impact on the other.

What we do know is Paxton is better able to miss bats and limit hard contact than Gray. We know that because he’s done it the last few years:

Paxton in 2018: 32.3 K% and .284 xwOBA
Gray in 2018: 21.1 K% and .316 xwOBA

Paxton from 2016-18: 28.2 K% and .276 xwOBA
Gray from 2016-18: 20.8 K% and .320 xwOBA

I was a big Sonny Gray fan and I was thrilled when the Yankees made the trade in 2017. I feel better about Paxton now than I did Gray then because his strikeout and contact management tendencies are better. We know that, despite all his natural talent, Sonny was not working out for the Yankees. He was terrible. Paxton is not guaranteed to succeed just because he’s not Gray, but I feel really good about what he’s bringing to the table. The potential upgrade is enormous.

Stanton is entering Year Two

Over the years we have seen more than a few players join the Yankees and struggle in their first year with the team, only to rebound in year two. Struggle might be too harsh here, but that first year in pinstripes wasn’t smooth sailing. Here are some recent examples, with an emphasis on big name middle of the order bats (wRC+ and WAR):

	Year before NYY	Year 1 with NYY	Year 2 with NYY
Carlos Beltran	131 and +2.7	97 and -0.5	119 and +1.7
Jason Giambi	193 and +9.2	175 and +6.6	149 and +5.0
Brian McCann	122 and +2.8	94 and +2.3	106 and +2.9
Alex Rodriguez	151 and +9.2	131 and +6.6	174 and +9.1
Gary Sheffield	163 and +7.3	141 and +3.8	137 and +2.4
Mark Teixeira	152 and +6.9	142 and +5.1	128 and +3.4

Giambi, Sheffield, and Teixeira all hit the ground running in year one. Beltran and A-Rod in particular were quite a bit better in their second season with the Yankees though, and McCann as well. Even Hideki Matsui went from a 109 wRC and +0.2 WAR in year one as a Yankee to a 140 wRC+ and +3.0 WAR in year two. That first season in New York can be a slog.

Giancarlo Stanton is now entering year two as a Yankee. All those new team, new teammates, new coaches, new city, new league, new ballpark feelings go away. Maybe they don’t go away, necessarily, but everything is more familiar now. Baseball players are creatures of habit and Stanton went from a largely irrelevant franchise to the center of the baseball universe last year. That had to be a tough adjustment. Now he knows what to expect.

I don’t know about you but I am fully expecting Giancarlo to have a big 2019 season. He wasn’t bad last year by any means — most players would kill to have .266/.343/.509 (127 wRC+) with 38 homers and +4.2 WAR be considered a down year — but Giancarlo went into 2018 with a career .268/.360/.554 (144 wRC+) batting line, so we know there’s more in there. Will he ever hit 59 homers again? Probably not. That is a lot of homers. Stanton turned only 29 in November though. He’s right smack in the prime of his career and I expect a big second season in New York.

* * *

Keep in mind that the Yankees are built around a strong young core, and when you have players this young and this talented, the potential for natural improvement is awfully exciting. Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres with a better understanding of how pitchers are attacking them could be even more productive this year. Maybe Luke Voit really can do that across a full season. Luis Severino is still only 24! That second half last season could be a valuable learning experience.

To me, the biggest difference between the 2019 Yankees and the 2018 Yankees is replacing Gray and the fifth starter revolving door with Paxton and Happ. Those stand out as two significant upgrades. Healthy Judge and healthy Sanchez will undoubtedly help as well, ditto a full season of Britton, and Stanton without that first year adjustment period. It’s difficult to improve on a 100-win team. With Paxton and Happ, the Yankees have done it, and there are reasons to believe several incumbent players are poised for better seasons as well.

Poll: After Derek Jeter, who will be the next Yankee voted into the Hall of Fame?

January 24, 2019 by Mike

Mariano Rivera made history throughout his 19-year career and he made history again earlier this week, when he became the first ever unanimous selection to the National Baseball Hall of Fame. All 425 voters named him on their ballot. I didn’t think it would happen but it did, and it’s pretty awesome. Couldn’t pick a better player to be the first unanimous Hall of Famer.

Mike Mussina, Rivera’s teammate with the Yankees for eight years, was also voted into the Hall of Fame earlier this week. Mussina has not yet decided whether he’ll wear a Yankees hat or an Orioles hat on his Hall of Fame plaque, though he did have more wins (147 to 123), more innings (2,009.2 to 1,553), more All-Star appearances (five to zero), and more WAR (+47.8 to +35.2) with the O’s. Going in as an Oriole seems appropriate.

Derek Jeter joins the Hall of Fame ballot next year and, like Rivera, he is a slam dunk first ballot Hall of Famer. He might even be unanimous! That would be fun, Rivera and Jeter being the first two unanimous Hall of Famers. Either way, Jeter is getting into the Hall of Fame next year. There’s no doubt about it. After that though, it might be a while until another Yankee gets voted into Cooperstown.

Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada have already dropped off the Hall of Fame ballot, having received less than the 5% needed to remain on the ballot another year. (Williams did spend two years on the ballot. Posada dropped off in year one.) Don Mattingly exhausted his 15 years on the ballot without being voted into the Hall of Fame. I suppose one of the eras committees could vote him in a la Harold Baines. We’ll see.

We know Jeter will be the next Yankee voted into the Hall of Fame by the Baseball Writers Association of America. We don’t know who will be the next after that. Let’s go through the upcoming candidates, shall we? Here are the Yankees due to appear on the Hall of Fame ballot in the coming years.

2020 ballot

Jeter is the big name here. He’s the only slam dunk Hall of Famer joining the ball next year. Also joining the ballot are former Yankees Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, and Alfonso Soriano. Abreu has a stathead case for Cooperstown but, if he gets in, he’ll have a Phillies cap on his plaque. He played more games with the Phillies (1,353) than all other teams combined (1,072).

Giambi played more games with the Athletics (1,036) than the Yankees (897), plus he won an MVP and finished second in the MVP voting while with the A’s. Also, there’s the performance-enhancing drug thing. Giambi gave that vague apology for letting people down without ever saying what he did, but we all know what he was talking about. So many Hall of Fame voters are dug in against PEDs that, even if Giambi’s case were stronger than it actually is, I still don’t think he’d get in.

Soriano played more games with the Cubs (889) than the Yankees (626) but he had some of his best seasons in pinstripes. He led the league in hits (209) and homers (41) in 2002 and finished third in the Rookie of the Year voting and third in the MVP voting while with the Yankees. Soriano’s best season, his 40/40 season (46 homers and 41 steals) came with the Nationals in 2006.

I don’t think Giambi has a chance at the Hall of Fame because of the PED stuff. Abreu and Soriano strike me as Hall of Very Good players rather than Hall of Famers, and hey, there’s nothing wrong with that. They had great careers and made tons of dough. Also, we’re looking for the next Yankee Hall of Famer here, and I don’t think Giambi, Abreu, or Soriano would have a Yankees hat on his Hall of Fame plaque even if they get in. They did more with other teams.

The best player with a chance to go into the Hall of Fame as a Yankee next year other than Jeter is Andy Pettitte. Pettitte was on the ballot for the first time this year and he received only 9.9% of the vote. He’s much, much closer to falling off the ballot than he is getting the 75% needed for induction into Cooperstown. It took Mussina six years on the ballot to get into the Hall of Fame. I have to think it’ll take Pettitte at least that long, if not longer to gain induction.

2021 ballot

There are no slam dunk Hall of Famers set to join the ballot in 2021, Yankees or otherwise. The best players joining the ballot are probably Tim Hudson and Mark Buehrle. The best former Yankees set to join the ballot are A.J. Burnett and Nick Swisher. Next.

2022 ballot

Now we’re talking. Alex Rodriguez joins the ballot in three years and his career was very obviously worthy of the Hall of Fame. There’s no arguing with the raw numbers. A-Rod is one of the 10-15 best players in the game’s history and, if you take his career at face value, he should be a unanimous selection. You can’t take his career at face value though. Rodriguez admitted to using PEDs and served a year-long suspension for a separate PED transgression.

If Barry Bonds and Rogers Clemens do not get into the Hall of Fame, A-Rod has little hope of getting in. The voting body is skewing younger and thus more forgiving of PEDs, but so many voters are dug in on this subject and will not change their minds. Jeff Passan recently spoke to voters who do not vote for Bonds or Clemens and it’s clear where they stand. Bonds and Clemens have seen their support plateau in recent years. It would take a sea change in the Hall of Fame voting for them to get in before their eligibility expires in three years.

In the unlikely event he does get voted into Cooperstown, it’s safe to assume A-Rod would go in as a Yankee. He played more games as a Yankee (1,509) than he did as a Mariner and Ranger combined (1,275), plus he won two MVPs in pinstripes and his World Series ring. More games, more homers (351 to 345), more hardware, more rings as a Yankee than everywhere else combined. Should he get in — assuming Rodriguez stays on the ballot all ten years, his final year of eligibility will be 2031, which is a looong ways away — A-Rod would go in as a Yankee.

The other notable former Yankee joining the ballot in three years is Mark Teixeira. My hunch is that, if Fred McGriff was unable to get into the Hall of Fame, Teixeira won’t get in either. Teixeira did hit 409 homers and he led the league in homers and total bases once (39 and 344 in 2009, respectively), but that’s pretty much it. Teixeira did play more games as a Yankee (958) than as a Ranger, Brave, and Angel combined (904), so if he gets into the Hall of Fame, I think he’d go in as a Yankee. I’m just not sure he’s getting in.

2023 ballot

The only serious Hall of Fame candidate joining the ballot in four years is Carlos Beltran. I think he’ll get into Cooperstown. If not on the first ballot, than eventually. Beltran is an unlikely candidate to be the next Yankee in the Hall of Fame simply because he played the bulk of his career elsewhere. Only 341 of his 2,586 career games came in pinstripes, or 13.2%. I guess Beltran would go into the Hall of Fame as a Royal or Met? Either way, it won’t be as a Yankee, so Beltran’s not the answer to our question.

2024 ballot

Players who retired following last season will be eligible for Hall of Fame induction in 2024. That means Adrian Beltre, Joe Mauer, Chase Utley, and David Wright. They combined for zero (0) games as a Yankee. Matt Holliday and Curtis Granderson could also join the Hall of Fame ballot in five years if they fail to find work this winter. Holliday spent one kinda crummy year with the Yankees. He’d go in as a Rockie or Cardinal. Granderson had some of his best seasons in pinstripes but played more games with the Tigers (674) and Mets (573) than the Yankees (513). Love the Grandyman but I don’t see him as a serious Hall of Fame candidate.

Active players

Ichiro Suzuki is a clear cut Hall of Famer and he’s going in as a Mariner, as he should. That leaves two active players who spend the bulk of their careers with the Yankees and deserve serious Hall of Fame consideration: Robinson Cano and CC Sabathia. This offseason’s trade ensures Cano would go into Cooperstown as a Yankee. He’ll split the second half of his career between (at least) two teams, meaning he won’t be able to accomplish enough with the Mariners to change his legacy from Yankees great to Mariners great.

Cano of course served a PED suspension last year, which likely ruins his chances at the Hall of Fame. Manny Ramirez has no-doubt Hall of Fame credentials, but, because he served two PED suspensions, he hasn’t topped 24% of the vote in his three years on the Hall of Fame ballot. Cano is closing in on 3,000 hits and Jeff Kent’s home run record for second basemen. Robbie’s the best second baseman of his generation. The suspension means he has a tough hill to climb.

Assuming Cano finishes out the final five years on his contract, that means he’s ten years away from appearing on the Hall of Fame ballot and 20 years away from exhausting his ten years on the ballot. We could still be talking about Robbie being on the ballot as a potential Hall of Famer in 2038! That’s an awfully long way away, man. The voting body can and will change between now and then, and a PED suspension may not be as much of a dealbreaker then as it is now. We’ll see.

Sabathia has more wins (129 to 117) and more starts (284 to 254) as a Yankee than he did as an Indian and Brewer combined, though he has slightly less WAR (+29.7 to +32.5). Also, Sabathia won his Cy Young in Cleveland and split 2008, his best individual season, between the Indians and Brewers. He won his World Series ring (and ALCS MVP) as a Yankee and has three top four finishes in the Cy Young voting in pinstripes. At some point this year he’ll record his 250th win and 3,000th strikeout, which is pretty cool.

I believe Sabathia would have a Yankees hat on his Hall of Fame plaque. The real question is whether he gets into Cooperstown. Mussina was an objectively better pitcher and he had to wait six years on the ballot to get in. Pettitte was a notch below Sabathia but he has the whole legacy Yankee thing going for him, and he didn’t come close to induction this year. (Pettitte is an admitted human growth hormone user though.) Sabathia will retire after this season and that means he’ll hit the Hall of Fame ballot in 2025. If he gets into the Hall of Fame, it’ll probably take several years on the ballot a la Mussina (and Pettitte).

Looking more long-term, Giancarlo Stanton is on a potential Hall of Fame track seeing how he’s at 300 homers and +40 WAR through his age 28 season. Five-hundred homers and +65 WAR is well within reach. Aroldis Chapman is like 60% of the way to Billy Wagner’s career at this point and Wagner hasn’t come close to induction yet, so Chapman has an uphill climb. Aaron Judge was a bit of a late-bloomer (he played his first MLB season at age 25), which puts him behind the Hall of Fame eight-ball. Gary Sanchez? Gleyber Torres? Miguel Andujar? Luis Severino? Great talents who are a long, long way from the Cooperstown combination.

What about Dellin Betances? He is the best setup man of his generation (yup) and it’s possible that, by time he’s eligible to appear on the Hall of Fame ballot, the voters may have very different standards for relief pitchers. As long as Wagner stays so far away from induction — this was Wagner’s fourth year on the ballot and he’s yet to receive even 17% of the vote — I can’t see Betances as a serious Hall of Fame candidate. Gosh, it would be fun though, wouldn’t it?

* * *

We know Jeter will be voted into the Hall of Fame next year. That is a certainty. The next Yankee to go into the Hall of Fame after Jeter is up in the air, largely because A-Rod and Cano have served PED suspensions, which significantly lowers their chances of winding up in Cooperstown. Since we’re here, we might as well turn this into a poll, so let’s get to it.

Who will be the next Yankee voted into the Hall of Fame after Jeter?

Poll: The 2019 Leadoff Hitter

January 10, 2019 by Mike

Barring a surprise Manny Machado or Bryce Harper signing — either would qualify as a big surprise to me at this point — the 2019 Yankees are pretty much set on the position player side. They do have to figure out their bench, and the DH spot will be something of a revolving door, but the nine starters are in place. The Troy Tulowitzki signing addressed the middle infield opening and that was the last remaining position player question.

Here, for the sake of laying it all out, are the starting nine position players the Yankees will use on most days this coming season:

Catcher: Gary Sanchez
First Base: Luke Voit
Second Base: Gleyber Torres
Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki
Third Base: Miguel Andujar
Left Field: Brett Gardner
Center Field: Aaron Hicks
Right Field: Aaron Judge
Designated Hitter: Giancarlo Stanton

That’s it, right? Right. I suspect Stanton will see more time in left field next year as Gardner’s playing time is scaled back — at the very least, Gardner should sit against lefties going forward — but that’s the starting nine most days. Pretty good squad, I’d say. FanGraphs projects that crew to average 5.03 runs per game in 2019, second most in baseball.

What we don’t know is how Aaron Boone will fill out his lineup card. Judge will probably hit second and Stanton will probably hit third or fourth. That’s about all we know for sure. And, frankly, I’m not sure there’s a wrong answer for the rest of the lineup because the Yankees have so many good hitters. Gardner and Tulowitzki are the clear weak links. Everyone else is pretty dangerous in the batter’s box.

The leadoff spot is a bigger question now than it has been at any point in the last four or five years because Gardner has declined. From 2013-18, it was plug Gardner into the leadoff spot and watch him grind away. Now, after a .236/.322/.368 (90 wRC+) line last season, and a .209/.288/.316 (66 wRC+) line in the second half, Gardner in the leadoff spot is no sure thing. Even against righties (95 wRC+).

Andrew McCutchen took over the leadoff spot late last year and he did the job very well. McCutchen’s gone now though. The Yankees have to again figure out the leadoff spot and there’s a chance they won’t get it right the first time, and will have to adjust on the fly. It happens. Lineups are ever-changing. I see four leadoff candidates on the roster.

The Safe Pick: Brett Gardner

Yup. Just put Gardner back in the leadoff spot and see what happens. Perhaps he’ll rebound following an offseason of rest and put up a solid season, or even just a solid first half. If nothing else, you know Gardner will grind out at-bats and see a lot of pitches. He saw 4.24 pitches per plate appearances last season, tied with McCutchen for the ninth most in baseball. Gardner still runs the bases really well too. He went 16-for-18 stealing bases with a 54% extra-base taken rate, far better than the 40% league average. Given the current roster, giving Gardner one last crack at the leadoff spot is an option.

The Obvious Pick: Aaron Hicks

Yeah, Hicks is probably most qualified to be the leadoff hitter this coming season. He gets on base (.366 OBP in 2018), he sees a ton of pitches (4.28 per plate appearances), he can run (11-for-13 in steals and 54% extra-base taken rate), he switch-hits, and he has power. Teams are all about power hitters atop the lineup these days. Francisco Lindor (38 homers), Matt Carpenter (36 homers), and Mookie Betts (32 homers) were all primary leadoff hitters last year. Charlie Blackmon set a new MLB record with 37 homers as a leadoff hitter in 2017.

The downside here is Hicks is the team’s best (only) left-handed threat at the plate and you know the Yankees want to split Judge and Stanton up. I wish they’d just bat them back-to-back but, clearly, the Yankees want to split them up with a lefty whenever possible. With Didi Gregorius sidelined, Hicks is the obvious candidate to hit third between Judge and Stanton. That’s where he hit in the postseason, remember. Are the Yankees willing to bat Judge and Stanton back-to-back, or squeeze another righty between them? If no, Hicks probably gets the nod as the third place hitter.

The Sexy Pick: Gleyber Torres

Now we’re talking. Torres put up a .271/.340/.480 (120 wRC+) batting line last season that is impressive for any player. It is especially impressive for a 21-year-old middle infielder thrust into a postseason race in New York. Torres had a lot of hype to live up to last season and he certainly did it. In year two as a big leaguer, Gleyber could take another step forward and become a legitimate top of the order threat. Would be cool.

This much we know: Torres got on base at a good rate last season (.340 OBP), he saw lots of pitches (4.03 per plate appearance), and he has some of that new school leadoff power. The one traditional leadoff skill Torres lacks is baserunning. He’s a crummy baserunner. If he gets on base and creates enough havoc from the leadoff spot though, you can overlook some bad baserunning. Gleyber’s skills suggest last year’s on-base ability and power is no fluke. He can do it again, and even improve on it with experience.

The YOLO Pick: Aaron Judge

Why the hell not? Boone flirted with batting Judge leadoff against lefties last season. He never went through with it but he did talk about it. At this time last season we didn’t know Torres and Andujar would do what they did and give the Yankees that extra lineup length. Judge’s power in the leadoff spot didn’t make much sense at the time. He was needed in a more traditional run-producing spot.

Now though? Now we know Torres and Andujar are threats with the bat, and that Hicks is for real. We know the Yankees have a deep offense with power up and down the lineup. True, they only had one 30-homer guy last season. They also had four 27-homer guys. Do you know how many teams in baseball history have had five players hit at least 27 homers in a season? The complete list:

2018 Yankees
1956 Redlegs (the Reds went by Redlegs from 1954-58)

That’s it. Two teams in baseball history have done it. And — and! — all five guys who hit 27 homers for the Yankees could do it again. Hicks and Stanton were the oldest 27-homer guys at 28. Maybe they don’t all hit 27+ homers again. Point is, the Yankees have a lot of power in their lineup, so much so that moving Judge to leadoff is a more viable option. Going into last year, they needed his power in the middle of the lineup. Not so much now.

We have two years of evidence telling us Judge is an elite on-base player. He did lose 30 OBP points from 2017-18, but we’re talking about going from a .422 OBP to a still excellent .392 OBP. Judge draws a ton of walks (career 16.7%) and every time you look up he’s in a 3-2 count. Those are the type of at-bats you want from a leadoff hitter. Add in the power and a league average extra-base taken rate, and you’ve got a guy who is an instant threat at the plate to begin every game.

* * *

I suppose that, if he shows some life with the bat, Tulowitzki could become a leadoff option at some point. I can’t imagine going into the season with him atop the lineup though. The Yankees will want to see some leadoff worthy production before moving Tulowitzki up high in the lineup, and not just in Spring Training either. Spring Training lies, man. Tulowitzki will have to produce in the regular season before getting a chance at leadoff.

Signing Machado or Harper would change the leadoff equation considerably. Both would slot into the No. 3 lineup spot nicely between Judge and Stanton, freeing up Hicks for leadoff duty. Or, on the other hand, adding another middle of the order bat makes Judge at leadoff an even greater possibility. Anyway, this is begging for a poll, so let’s get to it.

Who should hit leadoff in 2019?

Bryce Harper and the fallacy of having too many outfielders

December 19, 2018 by Mike

Last week at the Winter Meetings, Brian Cashman and Scott Boras had a weird little back-and-forth in the media about free agent Bryce Harper. Cashman said the Yankees don’t need an outfielder and thus don’t need Harper. Boras more or less laughed that off. He wants the Yankees involved for leverage purposes, if nothing else, and of course Cashman is going downplay interest in any free agent.

“At no point all winter have I said I am looking for an outfielder. The Harper stuff, I am surprised you are still asking,” said Cashman to George King. “I have Judge, Stanton, Ellsbury, Gardner, Frazier, Hicks. Ellsbury will be healthy and Frazier will be healthy (but even if we) take them out, I have Hicks in center and Stanton, who is athletic as hell, as the DH because Judge is in right and I have Gardner in left.”

“I’ve never heard the Yankees say (they don’t need an outfielder),” Boras shot back to Ken Davidoff. “As far as the Yankees and what discussions I, Hal (Steinbrenner), and Cash have had, I will leave that to our own … The Yankees are very adept. They’re smart. They are going to do something, and I think they can earnestly tell you that right now they’re not doing it and have every intention of doing something else when it’s best for them to do it.”

On paper, the Yankees do not need an outfielder. Aaron Judge and Aaron Hicks are locked into two of the three outfield spots. Brett Gardner is more of a platoon guy and a part-time player at this point of his career, but, even then, the Yankees have Giancarlo Stanton for the third outfield spot. Jacoby Ellsbury is owed a ton of money and Clint Frazier is a former top prospect who could very well claim an everyday outfield job by midseason.

The outfield — and thus Harper — does not appear to be a priority at this point. Now that J.A. Happ is back on board, the Yankees need a middle infielder and bullpen help more than anything. That is an oversimplification, however, and it completely ignores Harper being a just turned 26-year-old star. I think he’s a generational talent. Players who hit .279/.388/.512 (139 OPS+) with 184 (!) homers and +27 WAR through their age 25 season are extremely rare.

As far as I’m concerned, Harper (and Manny Machado) is the type of player you bring in no matter what. You sign him when you have the chance because the chance to sign a player like this doesn’t come around often, and you make the roster work around him. Four things derail this “the Yankees don’t room in the outfield for Harper” fallacy that somehow came to exist:

Gardner can easily be moved to the bench to open up left field.
Cashman himself admitted Ellsbury may not be ready for Opening Day after hip surgery.
Frazier is coming back from concussion issues and remains unproven at the MLB level.
There is life beyond 2019.

Imagine passing on a talent like Harper because you believe you already have six Major League caliber outfielders, and three of them are Gardner, Ellsbury, and Frazier? Goodness. Gardner is best used in moderation these days and he was moved into a bench role following the Andrew McCutchen trade this year. He can be moved to the bench in deference to Harper too. Ellsbury? Frazier? Who knows. The Yankees can’t count on them for anything at this point.

I mean, we all watched this past season, right? The Yankees went into Spring Training with the exact same outfield depth chart as the one they have right now, except Ellsbury and Frazier were healthy, and they had Billy McKinney too. Lots of outfielders! Nine games into the season Jace Peterson was starting in left field. Nine games. Depth at even the deepest positions can evaporate quickly.

That fourth point seems to be a forgotten one too. Whoever signs Harper is not just signing Harper for 2019. He’s getting multiple years. Maybe as many as 10-12 years. Both Hicks and Gardner will be free agents next offseason, and, in two offseasons, Ellsbury will be a free agent and Stanton could opt out of his contract. It is possible if not likely the Yankees will be looking for two everyday outfielders in eleven months. No room for Harper? Please.

And let’s not forget about the first base option. That doesn’t only apply to Harper either. Judge and Stanton are quite literally giants and who knows how their legs will hold up over the years? Running around the outfield at that size doesn’t seem like something they’ll be able to do long-term. First base (or DH) could be their ultimate destinations, further creating a need in the outfield. Point is, there are a lot — a lot — of ways to clear outfield space for Harper.

I don’t believe Cashman was being sincere when he listed six outfielders as evidence the Yankees don’t need Harper. The Yankees have to downplay their interest in Harper because, if they don’t, Boras will take them to the cleaners. Cashman knows the Yankees can fit Harper into their outfield. The question, as always, is money. Are the Yankees willing to spend what it takes? If yes, the “we have too many outfielders” talking point will disappear in a hurry.

2018 Winter Meetings Rumors Thread: Tuesday

December 11, 2018 by Mike

Day One of the Winter Meetings came and went yesterday without much activity. The were two small signings (Billy Hamilton to the Reds, Tyson Ross to the Tigers) and several waiver claims. That’s about it. There were plenty of rumors, of course, and the Yankees were involved in a few of ’em. Brian Cashman admitted he’s been in touch with Manny Machado’s and Yusei Kikuchi’s agents, plus we learned the Yankees aren’t comfortable with a three-year deal for J.A. Happ. Can’t say I am either.

“The operation that George (Steinbrenner) was able to operate and navigate through is nowhere close to the one that Hal Steinbrenner has to operate and navigate through,” Cashman said to Ronald Blum. “It’s a convenient, easy story to write about us being different than the Boss’s Yankees, but the game’s completely different, too, And I think we’ve been operating in a different capacity because it’s a whole new world order.”

Late last night word got out the Yankees are discussing a three-team trade with the Mets and Marlins that would put Noah Syndergaard in pinstripes. J.T. Realmuto would go to Queens and I assume the Yankees would send prospects to Miami. A trade this complicated is always a long shot — surely the Mets have other ways to get Realmuto without giving up Syndergaard, right? — and that goes double when there’s a Yankees-Mets element involved. This would be pretty rad though.

Anyway, here are Monday’s rumors. We’ll again keep track of all the day’s Yankees-related rumblings right here in this post, so make sure you check back often. Remember, the Winter Meetings are in Las Vegas this year. It might take a little while before everyone on the West Coast wakes up and starts feeding rumors and hot stove news to us East Coasters. All timestamps are Eastern Time. Here’s the latest on Day Two of the Winter Meetings:

7:23pm: Brian Cashman confirmed that pretty much every player on the roster has been asked about in trades this offseason except Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. No one has the guts to ask about Judge, eh? There were some bad contract-for-bad-contract swap talks involving Jacoby Ellsbury. “Money laundering,” Cashman called it. [Bryan Hoch]
4:35pm: The Yankees are one of three teams Manny Machado will visit, presumably after the Winter Meetings. It’s the Yankees, Phillies, and White Sox. Some #MysteryTeams are reportedly involved as well. [Jon Heyman]
4:32pm: Three-team trade talks between the Yankees, Mets, and Marlins are not progressing. The Mets are still pursuing J.T. Realmuto but it sounds they’re looking for ways to get it done without trading one of the best pitchers in baseball. [Jon Morosi]
11:46am: There’s a scenario in which the Yankees trade for J.T. Realmuto, have him split time at catcher and DH with Gary Sanchez, and move Giancarlo Stanton to the outfield. This strikes me as a “hey, Mets, if you don’t do this three-team deal soon we’re just going to keep Realmuto for ourselves” bluff, but we’ll see. [Joel Sherman]
11:41am: The Yankees remain interested in a reunion with Zach Britton. The expectation is his market will begin “narrowing down” by the end of the Winter Meetings, so nothing is imminent. Britton has said he’d like to return to the Yankees. [Brendan Kuty]
11:32am: J.A. Happ has several two-year offers in hand and is still looking for a third year. He’s indicated he’ll sign with the first team that offers that third guaranteed year. It’s been reported the Yankees won’t go there. [Jeff Passan]
10:55am: The Yankees are open to moving Miguel Andujar. That would make sense in the construct of this Syndergaard-Realmuto three-team trade. In theory, the Yankees could trade Andujar to a pitcher and then sign Manny Machado. [Ken Rosenthal]
9:30am: The Yankees and Reds had a “little talk” about second baseman Scooter Gennett. The left-handed hitting Gennett would be close to the ideal replacement for Didi Gregorius. The Reds want to trade him too, apparently. [Jon Heyman, Ken Rosenthal]
9:30am: Eleven teams initially showed interest in Sonny Gray and the Yankees have now pared the list down and are focusing on trade talks with a select few teams. “We haven’t found the sweet spot yet,” said Brian Cashman. [Joel Sherman]