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River Ave. Blues » Andrew McCutchen » Page 2

The Yankees would reportedly like to re-sign McCutchen, but the outfield situation is complicated

September 26, 2018 by Mike

(Stephen Brashear/Getty)

In a very short period of time, Andrew McCutchen has become an indispensable Yankee who has been a dominant force in the leadoff spot and given the lineup a real nice shot in the arm down the stretch. McCutchen is hitting .233/.424/.493 (154 wRC+) in 22 games as a Yankee and he’s taken over as the everyday left fielder. He’s been awesome.

According to Nick Cafardo, the Yankees would like to retain McCutchen beyond this season, assuming they can work out a reasonable contract. What’s reasonable? Who knows. Predicting free agent contracts in this climate is a fool’s errand. McCutchen is an impending free agent and he’ll turn 32 in October, and his best years are behind him, so a massive payday doesn’t figure to be on the horizon.

This year the Yankees very quickly went from having a glut of outfielders to, well, having to trade for McCutchen at the August 31st postseason-eligibility deadline. Injuries (Aaron Judge, Clint Frazier, Jacoby Ellsbury) and trades (Billy McKinney) thinned out the outfield depth chart. Does a reunion with McCutchen make sense? Let’s talk it out.

1. The outfield picture is complicated. Going forward, we know two things about the outfield. One, Judge will be in right field. And two, Aaron Hicks will be in center field, for at least one more season. (Hicks will be a free agent after 2019.) Other than that? Things are really up in the air. Some outfield questions, in no particular order:

  • How much do the Yankees want to play Giancarlo Stanton in the outfield?
  • Will Frazier be healthy next year? If yes, where does he play?
  • Will Ellsbury be healthy next year? If yes, where does he fit in?
  • What happens with Brett Gardner?

At midseason, I thought the Yankees would exercise Gardner’s option for next season and bring him back — it’s a $12.5M option with a $2M buyout, so it’s a net $10.5M decision — but that won’t happen now. Gardner’s had a terrible second half and has been displaced by McCutchen. He’s still a heart and soul Yankee though. Would it be at all surprising if the Yankees decline the option and bring Gardner back on a smaller contract? Nah.

I think the Yankees are totally comfortable playing Stanton in left on an everyday basis, if necessary. He spent a lot of time at DH this year because he’s been fighting that hamstring problem pretty much the entire second half. Frazier and Ellsbury? Really tough to count on those guys given their injuries. I don’t think the Yankees could pencil either into the 2019 roster right now, even as a bench guy.

So yeah, the Yankees have some outfield decisions to make this winter. They can let Gardner walk and re-sign McCutchen, and roll with a three-man (Judge, Stanton, McCutchen) rotation in the corner outfield and DH spots, and that’d work well. What happens then with Frazier? And Ellsbury? I dunno. I know this much: The more good players, the better. The Yankees can make McCutchen fit.

(Joseph Garnett Jr./Getty)

2. What is a reasonable contract, exactly? Three years ago McCutchen would’ve been a $150M player. Maybe even a $200M player. He was a perennial MVP caliber player from 2012-15 before slipping the last few years. McCutchen hasn’t had an Andruw Jones collapse, but he’s clearly no longer the player he was in his prime. He’s still quite good though.

The free agent market right now is not the free agent market we watched the last 10-15 years. Things changed last offseason and teams shunned veterans, even good ones. Jay Bruce getting three years and $39M going into his age 31 season looks like a minor miracle right now. McCutchen will be going into his age 32 season. He certainly has the better track record, but:

  • McCutchen’s contract year: .252/.367/.425 (120 wRC+) and +2.6 WAR
  • Bruce’s contract year: .254/.324/.508 (118 wRC+) and +2.6 WAR

Prior to last offseason, McCutchen’s contract comparables would’ve been guys like Ian Desmond (five years, $70M) and Lorenzo Cain (five years, $80M) and Dexter Fowler (five years, $82.5M). Does he even get $50M right now? Three years and $45M could end up being a pretty good deal for 32-year-old McCutchen, from his perspective.

McCutchen has a few things going for him that Bruce and others did not last offseason. One, this guy was a true star at one point, and that still has some appeal. Two, he remains a good on-base player with some pop who fights tooth and nail every at-bat. Three, he’s healthy and durable. McCutchen has played 150+ games eight times in the last nine years, and the one time he didn’t, he played 146.

And four, McCutchen has an excellent reputation within the game. He’s a good player on the field, he’s long been considered an excellent teammate in the clubhouse, and he has a squeaky clean image off the field. McCutchen’s a great ambassador for baseball and he does a ton of work in the community. Teams want players like him in their organization. That could factor into his contract this offseason.

For the Yankees, money shouldn’t be an issue this winter. By my quick count the Yankees are shedding about $55M in payroll after the season, so even if ownership says they can’t go over the $206M luxury tax threshold next year, there’s still money to spend. The Yankees can afford McCutchen. It’s just a question of how they want to build their roster and what other moves they’re considering, such as …

3. What about that Harper guy? At this point there is no sense in trying to forecast Bryce Harper’s upcoming contract. It is going to be so convoluted with opt-outs and escalators and option years. All I know is it will be very rich. Harper turns only 26 in October and he’s a generational talent — his “down” season is .246/.393/.498 (135 wRC+) — and anyone with half a brain would take his next three years over McCutchen’s next three years.

If the Yankees decide to pursue Harper, then McCutchen gets put on the back-burner. Heck, the same applies to Manny Machado, because signing Machado could mean Miguel Andujar winds up in the outfield. It could be that McCutchen is Plan B for potential Harper suitors, and he’ll have to wait for a contract. Or it could be that a team that knows it can’t afford Harper will act quickly to sign McCutchen before the price potentially goes up.

We don’t know whether the Yankees will pursue Harper. When CC Sabathia became a free agent, everyone knew the Yankees would go after him. When Jason Giambi and Mike Mussina became free agents, everyone knew the Yankees would go after them. I don’t sense get that vibe with Harper. It’s possible the Stanton trade took Harper off the table. Point is, if the Yankees are planning to make a run at Harper, McCutchen’s probably out of the picture.

* * *

For what it’s worth, McCutchen told Randy Miller it is “too early to say what’s a first choice” when it comes to his next team, though he did praise the Yankees. “The class here is just different. There’s just a different feel that you get when you are on this team. You feel like you’re kind of part of that history, and just to be even mentioned in it is quite an honor honestly. I’ve enjoyed my time here,” he said.

McCutchen’s been awesome in his limited time as a Yankee and I get the feeling that, similar to Todd Frazier last year, there’s going to be an ongoing “why haven’t the Yankees re-signed him?” dialogue this winter. Well, what if Clint Frazier is next year’s Miguel Andujar? What if the plan is to go all-in on Harper? McCutchen is awesome and if there’s a way to bring him back that makes sense, great. Given their recent history, don’t be surprised if the Yankees pass in favor of a younger player, however.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: Andrew McCutchen

Andrew McCutchen has been a much needed upgrade in the leadoff spot for the Yankees

September 26, 2018 by Mike

(Rich Schultz/Getty)

Last night, as the Yankees blew out the Rays en route to their sixth win in the last eight games, the offensive attack was led by new leadoff hitter Andrew McCutchen. McCutchen went 1-for-2 with two walks and a hit-by-pitch, and he saw 20 pitches in his five at-bats. That’s after seeing 34 pitches in five at-bats Monday night. Fifty-four pitches in ten at-bats the last two days. Golly.

McCutchen has now reached base 37 times in his last 17 games — it works out to a .468 OBP in those 17 games — and his overall batting line with the Yankees is .233/.424/.493 (154 wRC+) in 99 plate appearances. The batting average is a little low, but he’s walked (21) more than he’s struck out (18), and he’s hit for power too. Everything but the batting average is great.

“All we’ve seen since he’s gotten here, even the first week when he wasn’t getting a lot of hits, is a guy that really controls the strike zone and has gotten on base a ton for us,” said Aaron Boone to Randy Miller over the weekend. “He’s had impactful at-bats. He worked at (left field) and has been an impactful teammate, and someone that plays like a winning player. He’s done a lot for us.”

When the Yankees initially acquired McCutchen, it was to replace Aaron Judge in right field, and to provide depth in case Judge didn’t return. Shane Robinson and Neil Walker weren’t cutting it in right field. With Judge back, McCutchen is now filling a different role: Leadoff hitter. Brett Gardner, even with a recent little hot streak, is hitting .210/.289/.303 (63 wRC+) in the second half. That is unplayable.

McCutchen has assumed top of the lineup duty and, as I mentioned a moment ago, he has a .424 OBP overall in pinstripes and a .468 OBP in his last 17 games. That is about as good as it gets. Only Joey Votto (16.0%) and Alex Bregman (17.5%) swing at fewer pitchers outside the zone than McCutchen (17.7%), who has also taken to bat flipping his walks …

Nobody walks with more swag than @TheCUTCH22. pic.twitter.com/ngx6HN45sL

— YES Network (@YESNetwork) September 26, 2018

… and that is pretty darn cool. Not everyone can get away with that. McCutchen is a former MVP who remains very productive and has a sterling reputation within the game. He’s earned the right to pimp his walks (lol) and he’s been doing it a lot lately. No player in the American League has walked more often than McCutchen this month.

The Yankees were missing that swagger earlier this year. They were dull and flat for a long time, and still can be every so often. Now McCutchen is raising hell atop the lineup and looking cool as hell doing it. Even with the low batting average, it looks like coming to New York and playing for a contender has rejuvenated McCutchen. Wouldn’t be the first time that’s happened with a veteran coming over from a losing team.

More than anything, the Yankees needed more from the top lineup spot down the stretch and going into the postseason. Their leadoff hitters hit .205/.319/.298 (75 wRC+) in 40 games from the All-Star break through August 1st. They ranked 28th in AVG, 24th in OBP, 28th in SLG, and 28th in wRC+ from the leadoff spot during that time. You can’t win like that. Can’t be done. Love Gardner. He’s forever cool with me. But the Yankees could not continue like that.

McCutchen’s taken over the leadoff spot and the Yankees now rank first in OBP and first in wRC+ from the leadoff spot in September. He’s making the pitcher work and he’s getting on base for Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. While they Yankees have undoubtedly had some stinkers this month, the offense has been much more formidable with McCutchen. He’s knows what it’s like to be The Man in the lineup and he’s playing like that right now.

“Just being myself. Trusting the process. Trusting what I’ve been doing day in and day out, and just going out there and doing what I know I can do,” said McCutchen earlier this week when asked what allowed him to settle in with the Yankees so quickly (video link). “The guys have been great. When you have someone like Stanton and Judge hitting behind you, you know you’re going to get some pitches. And if not, hey, you take a walk, and they step up and they do it.”

Filed Under: Offense, Players Tagged With: Andrew McCutchen

The Yankees still have some things to accomplish even after clinching a postseason spot

September 25, 2018 by Mike

(Presswire)

Saturday night, the Yankees clinched a spot in the 2018 postseason with a thrilling walk-off win against Orioles. Well, maybe thrilling isn’t the best way to put it. The game was pretty dull up until Aaron Hicks yanked his walk-off double into the right field corner in the 11th inning. That was fun. The rest of the game? Meh.

Anyway, the Yankees are indeed going back to the postseason. They’re locked into the Wild Card Game because the Red Sox have already clinched the AL East title, so that’s a bummer, but at least the Yankees are in. Get into the postseason and you can win the World Series. The Yankees will be one of the final ten teams standing. That’s pretty cool.

Now, just because the Yankees are locked into the Wild Card Game, it doesn’t mean they can coast during this final week of the regular season. Well, they could, but I wouldn’t advise it. There are still some things to accomplish and some boxes to check this week. Here are five.

Clinch homefield advantage

Fun fact: The home team is 5-7 in the Wild Card Game all-time. That said, I can’t imagine any fan wants their team to play on the road in the Wild Card Game. Teams are built for their home ballparks and few teams are built as well for their home ballpark as the Yankees. The home/record records:

Yankees at home: 53-28 (+101 run differential)
Yankees on the road: 43-32 (+64 run differential)

Athletics at home: 50-31 (+59 run differential)
Athletics on the road: 45-31 (+77 run differential)

The Yankees are a good team on the road and a great team at home. And the 2018 Athletics are not the 2017 Twins. The Twins sold at the trade deadline last year and still made the postseason because the rest of the American League stunk. They made the postseason by default. This year’s Athletics are an excellent team and no pushover. The Yankees will need as much help as they can get in that Wild Card Game, and that includes the short porch and the Yankee Stadium crowd. The magic number for homefield advantage is four.

(Also, clinching homefield advantage means avoiding a brutal travel schedule. If the Wild Card Game is in Oakland, the Yankees have have to travel from Boston to Oakland after the end of the regular season, then potentially go right back to Boston if they advance to the ALDS. Making a round trip cross country to play one game? No. Just no.)

Pick a Wild Card Game starter

The Yankees are in a good spot when it comes to picking a starting pitcher for next Wednesday’s Wild Card Game. They have three good candidates in J.A. Happ, Luis Severino, and Masahiro Tanaka. I would much rather have one great candidate like first half Severino than three good candidates, but I can’t complain. I’ll feel pretty good — as good as you can feel in that situation, anyway — no matter who gets the ball.

“We will pick whoever is best qualified at that time, regardless of the following series,” said Brian Cashman to Pete Caldera over the weekend when asked about the Wild Card Game starter. “It’s all hands on deck for that one game, to find a way to survive it … Whatever is in our best interest, we’ll try to do.”

Two weeks ago RAB readers said Tanaka should start the Wild Card Game. Happ would be a fine choice as well. Severino? If he continues to pitch like he did last time out, it would be awfully tough for the Yankees to give the ball to someone else. Whoever it ends up being, the Yankees have to make a decision reasonably soon, and get that pitcher lined up on however many days rest (normal rest? an extra day?) this week.

Get Judge at-bats and Chapman innings

In seven games back in the starting lineup, Judge is 4-for-22 (.182) with six walks (.357 OBP) with seven strikeouts. The plate discipline is still there — the loss makes it easy to forget, but Judge’s ten-pitch battle against Eduardo Rodriguez that turned an 0-2 count into a walk before Giancarlo Stanton’s grand slam Thursday was a masterful at-bat — but the timing is not. He looks like a hitter who missed closed to two months.

Judge has put 15 balls in play since returning as a hitter and he has more fly balls and line drives (eight) than grounders and pop-ups (seven), so that’s good, but he’s not hitting the ball with much authority. He roped a 112.1 mph line drive in his first at-bat back. Since then he has only five 90+ mph batted balls, and his average exit velocity is 85.9 mph. His spray chart with exit velocities:

Yeah, not great. Judge has swung through some hittable fastballs since returning, which isn’t the most surprising thing in the world. He had a long layoff and jumping straight from batting practice and simulated games to live MLB pitching ain’t easy. That’s why Judge needs as many at-bats as possible the rest of the season. There’s a delicate balance here because the Yankees don’t want to overload the wrist, but yeah, Judge needs at-bats.

As for Chapman, he’s made three appearances since returning, two good and one not-so-good. His command was nonexistent — similar to Judge, Chapman not having good command after a month on the shelf isn’t surprising — in his first game back, and his velocity was down the last two times out. In fact, his 96.3 mph average fastball velocity Saturday was his slowest average fastball since June 2012.

“I felt good. The speed wasn’t where it usually is, but my command was much better and that’s really important,” said Chapman to Dan Martin over the weekend. “(The velocity being down) doesn’t worry me at all. I know the speed is there. It’s just a matter of getting out there and my getting rhythm back. Maybe after two more outings I’ll be back to being the pitcher I’ve been.”

Seeing Chapman sit mid-90s rather than upper-90s/low-100s can be alarming, though in this case, I’m not worried. He missed a month and is still rebuilding arm strength. Two bullpen sessions and one simulated game wasn’t going to get him back into midseason form. The Yankees have six games remaining and, since Chapman pitched yesterday, it seems he has three appearances remaining at most. He and Judge need reps this last week to get back to where the Yankees need they them to be going into October.

Rest whoever’s hurting

Well, the Yankees were in good shape health-wise up until two days ago. Now Didi Gregorius has torn cartilage in his wrist and Aaron Hicks has a tight hamstring. Both are day-to-day at this point. Gregorius will be reevaluated tomorrow and Hicks is going for an MRI today. If all goes well, both could return to the lineup later this week. I sure hope that happens. Aside from Didi and Hicks, the Yanks are healthy.

Does that mean everyone on the roster is 100%? Oh hell no. No one is 100% in September. Everyone’s nursing something. Stanton’s still dealing with his tight hamstring. Brett Gardner’s been icing his right knee after games on-and-off for a few weeks now. Dellin Betances has that cut on his finger that keeps opening up. He says it doesn’t affect his pitching, but he seems to be bleeding every time he’s on the mound, and that can’t be fun.

Point is, some players are nursing injuries, and if the Yankees can get them some extra rest and extra treatment in hopes of getting them healthy for the postseason, they should do it. There’s a balance that has to be struck, for sure. The Yankees can’t go into hangover mode just yet because they need to secure homefield advantage, but if there’s an opportunity to deal with those aches and pains, they should do it.

Prepare regulars for postseason roles

Inevitably, some players will see their roles changed in October. Lance Lynn is probably going to move to the bullpen, for example. He pitched out of the bullpen in the postseason plenty with the Cardinals, so it’s a role he’s familiar with, but it still would be good to give him a tune-up game in relief before the season ends, you know? You don’t want him doing it for the first time in a potential elimination game.

Gardner had been relegated to bench duty before Hicks got hurt last night, and if Hicks returns later this week, it stands to reason Gardner will be the designated pinch-runner in the postseason. Do you know how long it’s been since Gardner pinch-ran? Last June. He’s pinch-run five times total since 2012. It’s not a role he’s familiar with and it’s not easy to come off the bench cold like that. A few tune-up pinch-running appearances this week would be worthwhile, assuming Hicks returns.

(Mike Stobe/Getty)

Also, with Gardner in center/on the bench, Andrew McCutchen is now the everyday left fielder, and he has 59 career big league innings in left field. All 59 have come within the last two weeks. He’s still learning the position — McCutchen’s looked fine out there overall but has taken some interesting routes at times, which is to be expected — and the more time the Yankees give him out there, the more comfortable he’ll be.

There are some other minor considerations here as well. Will Greg Bird make the postseason roster, even as a bench bat? If yes, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to give him some at-bats this final week. Are Chad Green and David Robertson (and Zach Britton?) going to be multi-inning options in the postseason? Making sure they’re sufficiently stretched out seems worthwhile. Little things like this will help get the Yankees ready for October.

* * *

A case can be made the Yankees should give Justus Sheffield a chance to show he belongs on the postseason roster this week, though, realistically, I don’t think there’s enough time for that to happen. Best case scenario this week is three appearances, right? How well would Sheffield have to pitch in those three appearances to get the nod on the postseason roster? There are too many guys ahead of him on the depth chart, I think, but I do hope to see Sheffield pitch a bunch this week.

The Yankees have punched their ticket to the postseason, so they know they’re in. Now they have to clinch homefield advantage and make sure the Wild Card Game is in New York. They also have to get their players ready for the postseason, which means picking a Wild Card Game starter, getting Judge and Chapman ready, and preparing players for their October roles. The Yankees know they’re going to the postseason. Their work during the regular season isn’t done yet though.

Filed Under: Players Tagged With: 2018 Wild Card Game, Aaron Judge, Andrew McCutchen, Aroldis Chapman, Brett Gardner, Chad Green, David Robertson, Dellin Betances, Giancarlo Stanton, Greg Bid, J.A. Happ, Lance Lynn, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Zack Britton

The Yankees were active at the trade deadline and so far all their moves are having a big impact

September 20, 2018 by Mike

Cutch. (Presswire)

At some point soon, possibly before the end of the homestand, the Yankees will clinch a spot in the postseason. They’re not going to win the AL East — the Yankees need to go no worse than 10-1 the rest of the way while the Red Sox go 0-10 for that to happen — so a spot in the Wild Card Game will have to do. That’s okay. Just get in and you can win.

The Yankees have the third best record in baseball and they’re going to return to the postseason for a lot of reasons, including this year’s trade deadline pickups. The incumbents have been pretty good! But they needed help, so Brian Cashman and his staff were very active prior to both the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline and the August 31st postseason-eligibility deadline. They imported:

  • Two new starting pitchers (J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn).
  • A new first baseman (Luke Voit).
  • Another late-inning reliever (Zach Britton).
  • A new leadoff hitter and corner outfielder (Andrew McCutchen).

The Yankees also added a new utility infielder (Adeiny Hechavarria) and gobs of international bonus money at the deadline(s), though those are relatively minor additions. The other moves were much more significant. The Yankees turned over 40% of the rotation, two starting lineup spots, and added another end-game arm.

And, so far, just about all of those moves are paying big dividends. Lynn has been more serviceable than good, but, considering who he replaced (Sonny Gray), serviceable qualifies as a big upgrade. Happ has been outstanding in eight of his nine starts, including two nights ago against the Red Sox. Voit socked two more dingers last night and has nine in 29 games with the Yankees.

I don’t know whether they’d admit it, but I know Cashman and Aaron Boone and everyone else in the organization did not expect Voit to have this much impact. If they did, he wouldn’t have been sent to Triple-A Scranton (twice). Greg Bird was struggling, Voit got an opportunity, and he’s run with it. Voit went from first base platoon option to full-time first baseman. He’s given the lineup a huge lift.

Britton had a rocky start to his Yankees tenure but has really settled in lately. He’s allowed three runs (two earned) in his last 13 appearances and 14 innings while holding opponents to a .149/.180/.213 batting line. Britton has an 80.6% ground ball rate with the Yankees. That works out to 50 ground balls and 12 non-ground balls among 62 balls in play. He came in handy when Aroldis Chapman went down.

To me, McCutchen has been every bit as important as Happ and Voit and Britton. He only just got here, I know, but the Yankees had a revolving door in right field while Aaron Judge was on the disabled list, and McCutchen put an end to that. Now, with Judge back, he’s slid over to left field to replace the ineffective Brett Gardner, giving the Yankees another offensive threat. I love Gardner, he’s been a great Yankee, but it wasn’t working and a change had to made.

Last night McCutchen reached base three times in the blowout win over the Red Sox and he’s reached base 24 times in his last eleven games. The batting average is still a little low (.216), but McCutchen owns a .414 OBP as a Yankees, and that has been a game-changer atop the lineup. The leadoff spot (mostly Gardner) had a .205/.319/.298 (72 wRC+) batting line in 40 games from the All-Star break through August 31st. Can’t have that. McCutchen fixed it.

“It doesn’t have to be splashy. It just has to work,” said Cashman following the July 31st deadline. And so far, every just about every move the Yankees made has worked. Happ has steadied the rotation and forms a potentially very good postseason front three with the locked in Masahiro Tanaka and the seemingly rejuvenated Luis Severino. Britton makes the bullpen better and McCutchen and Voit have made the lineup that much deeper.

Keep in mind that, unlike some other teams, the Yankees were active at the trade deadline because they had to be. The Red Sox were in great shape and were able to add pieces like Nathan Eovaldi and Ian Kinsler to make their roster even better. The Yankees were more desperate for upgrades. Judge was hurt, Gray and Domingo German were becoming untenable, so was Bird, and Chapman’s achy knee was in the back of everyone’s mind. These were “we really need these guys to contend” moves. Not just upgrades to the fringes of the roster, you know?

Unlike last year, when they targeted players with long-term control, the Yankees focused on rentals this year. That’s probably just a coincidence given the way he market shook out, though I wonder whether getting burned by Gray (and Tommy Kahnle, to some degree) led to the Yankees looking for lower cost short-term moves. Either way, it’s worked quite well. The Yankees don’t really miss anyone they gave up — maybe they will one day, but right now? nah — and the players they received have all become important contributors. The trade deadline was a smashing success.

Filed Under: Trade Deadline Tagged With: Adeiny Hechavarria, Andrew McCutchen, J.A. Happ, Lance Lynn, Luke Voit, Zack Britton

With Aaron Judge back, Brett Gardner should be the odd man out of the outfield picture

September 19, 2018 by Mike

(Adam Glanzman/Getty)

Somewhat surprisingly, Aaron Judge made his return to the Yankees lineup last night. He’d been taking batting practice and hitting in simulated games, so it was clear his return was imminent, but I’m not sure anyone expected it yesterday. It seemed like Judge would return against one of the lefties tonight or tomorrow, if anything. I’m glad he’s back. Now Judge can begin getting back up to speed at the plate.

“Another one of those we’ll put under good problems to have,” said Aaron Boone to Chris Iseman over the weekend when asked how he’ll align his outfield once Judge returns as a full player. “There were times this year we wondered who were going to play on certain days. So looking forward to those guys being all in the mix.”

Now that Judge is a full player again, the Yankees have five players for four lineup spots (three outfield plus DH): Judge, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Andrew McCutchen, and Giancarlo Stanton. The Yankees will go from playing Shane Robinson and Neil Walker in right field to playing two MVPs (McCutchen and Stanton) and an MVP runner-up (Judge) in the outfield. Pretty cool.

And that is what should happen, really. Boone played it cool and indicated everyone will remain in the outfield/DH mix going forward but, clearly, Gardner should be the odd man out. Love the guy, he’s a heart and soul Yankee, but he is hitting .207/.286/.303 (62 wRC+) since the All-Star break, and, at age 35, it might not be a slump. It could be permanent age-related decline or just fatigue that will require an offseason’s worth of rest. I mean:

Judge has to play as much as possible going forward. There are only 12 games remaining in the season and he’s been out two months now with the wrist fracture. He needs as many at-bats as possible to get back up to speed at the plate. That’s the easy part here. When doling out outfield/DH playing time, Judge has to be the priority. There are a few other things that have to be considered here as well.

1. How is Stanton’s hamstring? We haven’t heard much about it lately. Stanton has been the designated hitter in 13 of the last 16 games — he played left field three times in a four-game span last week — and, prior to last night, McCutchen had started every game in right field since the trade. I feel like McCutchen would’ve had a DH day at some point had Stanton’s hamstring been completely okay. Seems like he’s still somewhat limited in his ability to play the field.

2. Who plays left when Gardner sits? Last night it was McCutchen, who went into the game with five innings worth of big league experience in left field, all within the last few days. He admitted the other day he is not comfortable out there, which isn’t surprising. Stanton didn’t seem to comfortable in left when he first made the move in Spring Training. Eventually he figured it out. McCutchen doesn’t have “eventually.” He has 12 games.

Should Judge play left field? Eh, he has a lot on his plate already. Asking him to adjust to a new position on the fly while working to regain his timing at the plate feels like an unnecessary complication to me. Let him focus on hitting. McCutchen in center and Hicks in left is an option, though McCutchen is so bad in center (-65 DRS from 2014-17!) that any gains from familiarity will quickly be given back. As long as Stanton’s hamstring is an issue, I guess McCutchen is in for a crash course in left field. (Gardner can replace him for defense late in games.)

(Mike Stobe/Getty)

3. The Yankees haven’t clinched anything! This is kind of a big deal. The Yankees are limping to the finish right now and they haven’t clinched anything. Not a postseason spot and certainly not homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game. Until that happens, they should play their best players, and Gardner is not one of their best players at the moment. Hicks, Judge, McCutchen, and Stanton are best able to help the Yankees get things clinched.

Gardner’s slide since the All-Star break makes this a relatively easy call for Boone. It’s not the move he or the Yankees want to make, they’d rather have a productive Gardner raising hell atop the lineup and pushing everyone else for playing time, but that is not the case. We’re past the “give him some time to see if he figures things out” point of the season. Judge is back and he needs to play, and the other three outfielders give the Yankees the best chance to win.

“At this point in the season the last thing I want to do is make it about me. It’s about the team, and we are trying to win games and going into the postseason trying to stay alive,” said Gardner to George King. “Whatever role they see me in, I will be ready.”

Filed Under: Players Tagged With: Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Andrew McCutchen, Brett Gardner, Giancarlo Stanton

Yankeemetrics: Getting late early in the Bronx (Sept. 14-16)

September 17, 2018 by Katie Sharp

(Newsday)

#TanakaTime is Terrific
Back in the Bronx for the first time in nearly two weeks, the Yankees kicked off their final homestand of the season with a stress-free rout of the Blue Jays. The 11-0 score was their largest shutout win since a 15-0 whitewashing of the Mets on June 14, 2009. This was the 630th game in the Yankees-Blue Jays rivalry, and the only other time they posted a larger shutout win was September 25, 1977 at Exhibition Stadium in Toronto.

The Yankees enjoyed an early offensive eruption, scoring five runs in the first and had an 8-0 lead after three innings. This was their fourth game putting up a five-spot (or more) in the first inning; only the Diamondbacks (7) have done that more times this season.

Andrew McCutchen had a huge game, going 3-for-3 with two walks and a solo homer in the fifth inning, his first career home run at Yankee Stadium. It was his fourth game in 2018 reaching base at least five times, including a home run — that’s the most such games in MLB this season.

Masahiro Tanaka tossed another gem, bolstering his candidacy to be the Wild Card Game starter in October. He threw six scoreless innings with eight strikeouts and extended his current scoreless streak to 20 innings, the second-longest of his career behind a 21 1/3 inning stretch earlier this season in July and August.

Masahiro Tanaka Last 20 IP:

74 Batters Faced
0 Runs
11 Hits
23 K
3 BB

— Katie Sharp (@ktsharp) September 15, 2018

According to STATS, Tanaka is the first Yankee pitcher with multiple scoreless streaks of 20-plus innings within a season since Ron Guidry in 1983.

Tanaka is now 3-0 with a 0.43 ERA and 24-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in three September starts, but his consistent brilliance actually extends back further to mid-July. In 10 games since the All-Star break, Tanaka has a 2.09 ERA with 69 strikeouts in 64 2/3 innings. That’s the third lowest ERA among AL pitchers with at least 40 innings, trailing Blake Snell (1.40) and David Price (1.56).

(Getty)

Seven not enough
It was too little, too late on Saturday as the Yankees late-inning comeback bid fell just short in a 8-7 loss. Down 8-1 entering the bottom of the seventh, they scored six runs in the frame but ultimately the hole they dug themselves into was too too deep. This was the third time in the last two seasons that the Yankees put up a six-spot (or more) in a single inning and lost the game. Coincidentally or not, the Yankee starter in each of the three games was CC Sabathia.

They also somehow managed to lose the game despite hitting a quartet of homers, giving them an 11-3 record this season when going deep four times in a game. The good? The 14 games with at least four longballs is easily the most in MLB this year (no other team is in double digits). The bad? The .786 win percentage in those games is the second-worst in MLB this season (min. 5 games), behind the Phillies (6-2, .750), and the three losses are more than any other team.

When you add in the fact that they had 17 baserunners and still lost … the only other time in the last 10 seasons they managed to lose a game like that (at least 4 homers and 17 baserunners) was a 10-8 loss to the Angels on July 15, 2012.

Two of the four dingers were hit by Didi Gregorius, his 25th and 26th of the season, breaking his own single-season home run franchise record for shortstops that he set last year. Didi and Francisco Lindor are the only MLB shortstops with 25 or more homers in both 2017 and 2018.

Yankees SS Most HR in a Season:

Didi Gregorius 26 (2018)
Didi Gregorius 25 (2017)
Derek Jeter 24 (1999)

— Katie Sharp (@ktsharp) September 15, 2018

It was also Gregorius’ fifth multi-homer game of the season, the most on the Yankees. The list of Yankee left-handed batters with five or more multi-homer games in a season is a fun one:

  • Didi Gregorius (2018)
  • Jason Giambi (2005)
  • Tino Martinez (1997)
  • Matt Nokes (1991)
  • Roger Maris (1960, ‘61)
  • Yogi Berra (1952)
  • Lou Gehrig (4 times)
  • Babe Ruth (8 times)

Miguel Andujar did his best to deliver an improbable win with a seventh-inning grand slam that made it a one-run game, his second grand slam this season (his other one also came against the Jays on June 5). Andujar is the fifth rookie in franchise history to hit multiple grand slams in a season, joining Russ Derry (1945), Yogi Berra (1947), Shane Spencer (1998) and Hideki Matsui (2003).

And, at 23 years old, #MiggyMantle is the youngest Yankee with a pair of grand slams in a season since … a 20-year-old Mickey Mantle hit two in 1952.

(AP)

Bad Betances
It was reverse-deja-vu for the Yankees on Sunday: this time they raced out to an early lead, but an eighth-inning Dellin Betances meltdown gave them the same end-game result as Saturday — a dismal and disappointing loss to a mediocre Blue Jays team.

Following his two-run, four-hit disaster outing, Betances has now allowed six runs in his last seven appearances. In his previous 39 appearances dating back to mid-May, Betances gave up three runs over 38 2/3 innings.

Dellin Betances Since May 12
IP Runs ERA Hits Opp BA
Last 7 Games 7 6 7.71 9 .310
Previous 39 Games 38.2 3 0.70 13 .103

Entering the day, the Yankees were 70-3 when leading at the start of the eighth inning; only the A’s (65-0) had a better record or fewer losses. The only other time this season the Yankees lost at home when taking a lead into the eighth was August 30 against the Tigers.

The Yankees are now 6-8 (.429) in September. That would be their worst regular-season September/October win percentage since … 2000, when they went 13-18 (.419). Fortunately, they had a slightly better record in October in the postseason that year.

Filed Under: Analysis Tagged With: Andrew McCutchen, CC Sabathia, Dellin Betances, Didi Gregorius, Masahiro Tanaka, Miguel Andujar, Toronto Blue Jays, Yankeemetrics

Yankeemetrics: Sweepless in Seattle (Sept. 7-9)

September 10, 2018 by Katie Sharp

(AP)

Ace Tanaka
The Yankees made sure that there would be no hangover from their miserable blowout loss in the series finale at Oakland, as they rebounded to beat the Mariners on Friday night, 4-0.

The win improved the Yankees to 53-29 all-time at Safeco Field, the best record at the ballpark by any team. They completely dominated the Mariners, who had just four baserunners (three hits, one walk) thanks to another gem from Masahiro Tanaka. It was the first time the Yankees blanked the Mariners while giving up no more than three hits since May 14, 1996 … Dwight Gooden’s memorable no-hitter in the Bronx.

Tanaka was stellar, tossing eight scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts and no walks. Only one runner reached third base, and he retired 13 batters in row between a first-inning two-out single by Robinson Cano and a sixth-inning leadoff double by Mike Zunino. Tanaka is the first pitcher in franchise history with a 10-strikeout, no-walk scoreless outing against the Mariners. It was his fifth career double-digit, zero-walk game; the only Yankee with more is Mike Mussina (7).

The brilliant performance also extended his run of dominant ace-like performances since the All-Star break. His 2.30 ERA in the second half of the season is the third-best among AL pitchers (min. 30 IP), behind only Blake Snell (1.42) and David Price (1.78).

Masahiro Tanaka Since All-Star Break:
9 starts
58.2 IP
2.30 ERA
61 K
10 BB
5 HR

— Katie Sharp (@ktsharp) September 8, 2018

Gleyber Torres gave Tanaka some early run support with his 23rd home run of the season in the second inning, a two-run bomb that also was his 100th career hit. Torres (21 years, 268 days old) is the youngest Yankee to reach the century-hit milestone since a 20-year-old Mickey Mantle in 1952. He also matched Mantle on this home run leaderboard of franchise legends:

Yankees Most HR Age-21 Season or Younger:

Joe DiMaggio 29 (1936)
Gleyber Torres 23 (2018)
Mickey Mantle 23 (1952)

— Katie Sharp (@ktsharp) September 8, 2018

Longballs FTW
The Bombers used their two trademark offensive weapon home runs and almost-homers (sac flies) to beat the Mariners on Saturday night, 4-2. They lead the majors in both categories (232 homers, 51 sac flies) — and by large margins. Entering Sunday, their 34-homer lead was nearly the same as the difference between the second-place teams (Dodgers and A’s, 198) and the 15th place team (Phillies, 165). And their six-sac fly lead was the same as the difference between the second-place Pirates (45) and the eighth-place Diamondbacks (39).

(AP)

Andrew McCutchen got the deep-ball party started when he cranked a leadoff homer in the top of the first. McCutchen is the third different Yankee to hit a leadoff blast this season (Gardner has three and Hicks has one). The last time they had a trio of players each with at least one leadoff homer was 1995, when four guys — Tony Fernandez, Bernie Williams, Luis Polonia, Wade Boggs — did it.

After Seattle tied it up in the third, Giancarlo Stanton put them ahead again in the fifth with a sacrifice fly to right, his 10th with the team. He is one of four Yankees to hit double-digit sac flies and 30 homers in a season:

Yankees 10+ Sac Flies and 30+ HR in a Season:

Giancarlo Stanton (2018)
A-Rod (2010)
Tino Martinez (1997)
Don Mattingly (1985, ’86)

— Katie Sharp (@ktsharp) September 9, 2018

The Mariners quickly knotted it up again in the bottom of the fifth, but Austin Romine finally gave the Yankees the lead for good with a solo blast in the seventh. It was his first career go-ahead homer in the seventh inning or later.

(USA Today)

Dellin Betances survived a shaky ninth inning for his third save of the season. He loaded the bases with one out and then struck out Denard Span and Kyle Seager swinging to seal the win. Opponents are 5-for-50 (.100) with the bases loaded against Betances in his career, and he’s whiffed nearly half (28) of them (58). That .100 batting average allowed is the lowest among all active MLB pitchers (min. 50 batters faced).

(AP)

WTF loss to the Mariners
All streaks must come to an end, right? The Bombers domination of the Mariners was snapped in abrupt fashion on Sunday, losing 3-2 on a fantastic game-ending catch by Mitch Haniger with the Yankees potential game-tying run on base. Prior to that loss, they had won seven in a row against the Mariners, and were going for the season series sweep. It would have been the first time ever that the Yankees swept a season series against an AL West team since divisional play began in 1969.

The big story of the game was another RISP-fail showing by the offense, which went 2-for-15 with runners in scoring position. That included a no-out, bases-loaded situation in the fourth inning that resulted in a single run scored when Andrew McCutchen took ball four on a full-count. The Bronx Walkers’ 14 bases-loaded walks are tied for the fourth-most in MLB this season, while their batting average and slugging percentage both rank 23rd.

(USA Today)

CC Sabathia battled through a rough first two innings but was able to limit the damage (two runs) and retired 11 of the final 13 batters he faced. Sabathia’s 2.24 ERA in 15 career starts at Safeco Field is the third-lowest at the ballpark among all pitchers with at least 10 starts there, behind Bartolo Colon (1.98) and Dan Haren (2.00).

Giancarlo Stanton — along with making the final out of the game — ended the no-hitter version of this game early with a first-inning double, his 30th of the season. Round number alert: he is the first Yankee with at least 30 homers and 30 doubles since Robinson Cano in 2012, the first Yankee right-handed batter to do it since Alex Rodriguez in 2008, and the first Yankee DH/outfielder to achieve both marks in a season since Hideki Matsui in 2004.

Filed Under: Analysis Tagged With: Andrew McCutchen, Austin Romine, Dellin Betances, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Masahiro Tanaka, Seattle Mariners, Yankeemetrics

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