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Hot Stove Rumors: Machado, Britton, Gray, Profar

January 4, 2019 by Mike

I don’t self-promote often, but I am going to do my civic duty and link to my CBS post ranking the top 50 players in baseball five years from now. Who’s No. 1? You probably already know! Anyway, there’s that. Now here are the latest offseason rumblings as the hot stove continues to run cold.

Machado’s agent is “barely engaging” teams

According to Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d), neither Manny Machado nor Bryce Harper appear close to signing, and in fact Machado’s agent Dan Lozano is “barely engaging” teams right now. He’s remaining patient and waiting for either an interested team to up their offer, or another team to jump into the mix. These things can change in a hurry, but, right now, it doesn’t sound like Machado is close to picking a team. His market is reportedly down to the Yankees, Phillies, and White Sox.

Earlier this week I said it seems Machado is holding up the rest of the offseason. My thinking was that, once he signs, interest in Harper will pick up, and teams that miss out on Machado will begin to look at other free agents. That was probably overly optimistic on my part. It reminds me of last offseason when we were all saying things would pick up once Shohei Ohtani signed and Giancarlo Stanton was traded. It never really happened. When a 26-year-old on a Hall of Fame track doesn’t have teams falling all over themselves to sign him, you know baseball is broken.

Yankees now “focused” on Britton

With David Robertson having signed with the Phillies, the Yankees are now “focused” on re-signing Zach Britton, report Jon Heyman and Brendan Kuty. Other teams are involved and Jayson Stark says Britton and Scott Boras are holding out for a four-year contract. They’ll probably settle for a three-year deal (with an option?), which is still one year too long for my liking, but what I think doesn’t matter.

Britton turned 31 last month and he had a 3.10 ERA (4.22 FIP) in 40.2 total innings after returning from Achilles surgery last year. He was at his best late in the season, as he got further away from the surgery, but he still wasn’t peak Orioles Zach Britton. The Yankees’ infield defense is pretty sketchy as currently constituted and that doesn’t seem to be a good fit for such a ground ball reliant pitcher. Strikeouts are the way to go.

Yankees, Braves, Rangers talked three-way trade with Gray, Profar

According to Jeff Passan, there was “traction” at one point on a three-way trade that would’ve sent Sonny Gray to the Braves and Jurickson Profar to the Yankees. Atlanta would’ve sent a prospect(s) to Texas. We heard the Yankees had interest in Profar and the Braves had interest in Gray earlier this winter, so that makes sense. Alas, the Rangers sent Profar to the Athletics in a three-team trade with the Rays. Texas received four prospects in the deal.

We’ll see what the Yankees get in the inevitable Gray trade, but I have a hard time thinking it’ll be better than Profar. He was my ideal Didi Gregorius replacement. Profar appears poised to finally take off and become one of the game’s top players. Of course, the Braves and Rangers had a say in this as well, and it sounds like the potential three-team trade fell apart because those clubs weren’t satisfied. So it goes. For what it’s worth (nothing), I acquired Profar in a three-team trade involving Gray in my 2018-19 Offseason Plan. Loved him as Gregorius fill-in and super utility guy.

Looking for under-the-radar middle infielders the Yankees could target this offseason

January 3, 2019 by Mike

Earlier this week the Yankees made a big name depth pickup by agreeing to a one-year deal with Troy Tulowitzki. Because the Blue Jays owe him $38M the next two years, the Yankees only have to pay him the $555,000 league minimum. The Blue Jays probably won’t contend in 2019, but gosh, Tulowitzki getting a big hit against the Blue Jays on Toronto’s dime would be some Grade-A trolling.

Anyway, Tulowitzki is a big name and not much more at this point. Sure, we’ve all seen the “he looked great at his recent workout” stories these last few weeks, but we see those about countless players every offseason. Who’s the last player who had a bad workout? Exactly. The fact of the matter is Tulowitzki has not played in an MLB game since July 2017, and, when he did last play, he wasn’t very good. This is nothing more than a league minimum roll of the dice.

Reports indicate the Tulowitzki signing won’t stand in the way of a Manny Machado signing, and why would it? You don’t let anyone stand in the way of a Manny Machado signing, especially not a 34-year-old reclamation project who hasn’t played in 18 months. I reckon Tulowitzki won’t stand in the way of anything. If another good middle infield option comes along, the Yankees will pounce, and sort out the roster later. The more good players, the better.

Two weeks ago I tried to dig up some under-the-radar bullpen targets using skills the Yankees value, specifically spin rate and swing-and-miss rate. The Yankees love relievers who can spin the ball and miss bats. Every team does, but the Yankees especially. In last week’s chat, commenter PJ suggested I do something similar for position players, and seeing how the Yankees are set pretty much everywhere except the middle infield, that’s the place to look.

What skills do the Yankees value in hitters? The skills that led them to Luke Voit: Exit velocity and launch angle. They love hitters who hit the ball hard and hit the ball in the air. This past season the Yankees had the fourth highest average exit velocity (89.0 mph) and ninth lowest ground ball rate (41.6%) in baseball. Three-hundred-and-forty-four players batted at least 400 times from 2017-18. Their hard hit and ground ball rates:

The red dots are Yankees. The blue dots are everyone else. There are 22 red dots in the plot and I count eleven that are either in the “lots of hard fly balls” quadrant or very close to it. And you know what? Most of the eleven that aren’t are gone. Those players aren’t on the team anymore. The red dots in the “lots of weak grounders” quadrant include Starlin Castro, Chase Headley, Matt Holliday, and Ronald Torreyes. (Torreyes is the red dot at the bottom.)

Hitting the ball hard and hitting the ball in the air are two qualities the Yankees value in their hitters. How else do you think they set a new Major League home run record in 2018? There is more to being a position player than hitting the ball hard — defense matters too, for example — but I figure hitting the ball hard in the air consistently is a good starting point for a potential under-the-radar target search.

Last season 448 players received at least 100 plate appearances. Only 139 of those 448 players combined an above-average hard hit rate with a lower than average ground ball rate, and most of those 139 are the game’s best players. Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt, etc. Also, not many of them are middle infielders. A few are though, and some of them are available as free agents. Others could be trade targets. Here are five who caught my eye.

SS Nick Ahmed, Diamondbacks

Hard Hit Rate: 39.2%
Ground Ball Rate: 40.8%
2018 Slash Line: .234/.290/.411 (84 wRC+)
2019 Steamer Projection: .237/.294/.382 (72 wRC+)

The skinny: The Yankees have had interest in Ahmed in the past, and the D’Backs are selling, so he figures to be available. The 28-year-old does his best work in the field — he’s a stellar defensive shortstop — and last season he cranked a career high 16 homers. Not surprisingly, his hard contact rate ticked up and his ground ball rate ticked down.

“I’m trying to do damage every time I go up there. I’m not trying to buy into this, really, launch angle, high fly ball, home run-or-nothing approach,” said Ahmed to Kevin Zimmerman in August. Maybe he wasn’t trying to become a launch angle guy, but that’s what he became, and as a result he had his best offensive season to date. Of course, he was still a below-average hitter overall, but a sub-.300 OBP with 16 homers is better than a sub-.300 OBP with single-digit homers.

Contract status: Ahmed has two years of team control remaining and MLBTR projects a $3.1M salary in 2019. Like I said, the D’Backs are in selling mode now, so I’m certain they’re at least willing to listen to offers for their shortstop. The Yankees have had success with former Arizona shortstops, you know.

Yay or nay? I’m a nay on this. I fully acknowledge that, at worst, Ahmed would play the hell out of shortstop while Didi Gregorius is sidelined, surely better than the 34-year-old Tulowitzki would. I just feel like there are comparable players available for nothing but cash in free agency.

SS Freddy Galvis, Free Agent

Hard Hit Rate: 40.3%
Ground Ball Rate: 41.4%
2018 Slash Line: .248/.309/.382 (85 wRC+)
2019 Steamer Projection: .244/.295/.370 (79 wRC+)

The skinny: Galvis is one of those free agents who is comparable to Ahmed. He turned 29 earlier this offseason and his 45 home runs the last three years are somehow 22nd most among middle infielders. Galvis is also a really good defensive shortstop and, for what it’s worth, he’s regarded as an excellent clubhouse dude. As a cheap stopgap, you could do worse. The Yankees have had interest in him.

Contract status: Galvis is a free agent and I imagine he’s looking at a low cost one-year deal. His contract upside is probably the two-year, $8M contract the Red Sox gave Eduardo Nunez last winter. Maybe he could push a team to $10M or $12M. Maybe.

Yay or nay? I think yay. I feel better about Galvis contributing on at least one side of the ball this coming season than I do Tulowitzki, and it is only money, so who cares about that. You’d have to trade prospects to get Ahmed. Galvis is available for cash.

IF Jedd Gyorko, Cardinals

Hard Hit Rate: 37.1%
Ground Ball Rate: 39.9%
2018 Slash Line: .262/.346/.416 (110 wRC+)
2019 Steamer Projection: .247/.321/.421 (103 wRC+)

The skinny: I still contend that, among cheap stopgap options, Gyorko is the best middle infield bet for the Yankees. He’s a solid hitter — not a great hitter, but a solid hitter who gets on base and will put a mistake in the seats — and a solid defender who can play second or third, and even short in a pinch. Also, because the Padres are paying a chunk of his salary, his 2019 luxury tax hit will be $920,000. Realistically, Tulowitzki and Gyorko are the only veteran stopgaps available with six-figure luxury tax hits, and I feel much better about Gyorko being productive this coming season than I do Tulowitzki.

Contract status: Like I said, Gyorko’s luxury tax hit is $920,000 for the coming season. Between his $13M salary and the $1M buyout of his $13M club option for 2020, the Yankees would owe him $9M in 2019 once you subtract out the $5M the Padres are paying him. That’s $9M in real money. The luxury tax hit is only $920,000 though. Can’t beat that.

Yay or nay? I’m a hard yay. Well, it depends what the Cardinals want in return, though it seems possible they’ll be willing to unload him in a salary dump deal to free up money for other things. They don’t have a clear path to playing time for Gyorko at the moment. If they insist on a top prospect or an MLB piece, forget it. If they’ll take a second tier prospect or two, sign me up.

2B Rougned Odor, Rangers

Hard Hit Rate: 45.2%
Ground Ball Rate: 41.1%
2018 Slash Line: .253/.326/.424 (97 wRC+)
2019 Steamer Projection: .249/.307/.453 (97 wRC+)

The skinny: Odor is a good reminder that development is not linear. He had a 103 wRC+ as a 22-year-old in 2016 and a 58 wRC+ (!) as a 23-year-old in 2017. Last year he bounced back to a 97 wRC+. Odor turns only 25 in February and he already has a pair of 30-homer seasons under his belt, plus he’s a Yankee Stadium friendly left-handed pull hitter. His 2016-18 spray chart:

For whatever reason Odor seems to get on people’s nerves, but step back and look at the big picture, and you’ve got a soon-to-be 25-year-old middle infielder who’s a good defender and has already shown 30-homer power. That’s an interesting little ballplayer, no? The Rangers are rebuilding too. They traded Jurickson Profar and Alex Claudio last month and Cole Hamels, Jake Diekman, and Keone Kela at the deadline. I’m sure they’re open to discussing Odor.

Contract status: The Rangers signed Odor to a six-year contract worth $49.5M during Spring Training 2017. The deal carries an $8.25M luxury tax hit and will pay him $7.5M in 2019, $9M in 2020, and $12M in both 2021 and 2022. There’s also a $13.5M club option ($3M buyout) for 2023. Trade for him right now and his luxury tax hit is lower than his actual salary in three of the four guaranteed years left on the deal.

Yay or nay? I think I’m a yay. Odor is probably worth a deeper look at some point, but again, he’s a soon-to-be 25-year-old middle infielder with Yankee Stadium friendly lefty power and good defensive chops. Remove the name and any preexisting biases and wouldn’t a player like that interest you? The Yankees could, in theory, trade for Odor and move forward with him and Gleyber Torres on the middle infield, and wave goodbye to Gregorius after the season. Ultimately, it depends on the price. I don’t think Texas would give Odor away and I can’t say I’m eager to trade top prospects for him either.

SS Dansby Swanson, Braves

Hard Hit Rate: 35.6%
Ground Ball Rate: 42.4%
2018 Slash Line: .238/.304/.395 (80 wRC+)
2019 Steamer Projection: .248/.322/.390 (87 wRC+)

The skinny: The No. 1 pick in the 2015 draft has thoroughly underwhelmed at the MLB level. Swanson is a .243/.314/.369 (76 wRC+) hitter in over 1,200 big league plate appearances, and, when you look at what guys like Alex Bregman (No. 2 pick in 2015), Andrew Benintendi (No. 7), and Walker Buehler (No. 24) are doing right now, it’s hard not to be disappointed. That said, we are still talking about a 24-year-old kid here, a kid with a lot of talent who’s already established himself as a comfortably above-average defensive shortstop. Swanson barely meets our “better than average hard hit and ground ball rates” criteria, but he does meet it, and it’s not difficult to dream on him even given his pedigree.

Contract status: Swanson has two years and 47 days of service time, so he comes with four seasons of team control. He’ll be a pre-arbitration player in 2019 and arbitration-eligible from 2020-22. Also, Swanson has all three minor league options remaining, so he can be sent to Triple-A with ease, if necessary. That would come in handy for a “play Swanson at short until Gregorius returns, then send him down for regular at-bats if he’s still not hitting” scenario.

Yay or nay? I am a definite yay here. This is Didi Gregorius and Aaron Hicks again, right? A former top prospect who’s struggling to find his way in the big leagues. Buy low on him and hope you can get him to blossom in your uniform. Sometimes it works (Didi, Hicks), sometimes it doesn’t (Dustin Ackley), but it’s worth a try. The Braves could trade Swanson to address another roster need (outfield? bullpen?) and roll with Ozzie Albies and Johan Camargo on the infield. Would they sell-low on Swanson? My guess is no, but it never hurts to ask. I’d roll the dice on a young player like this every day of the week.

* * *

Several prominent free agents (Jed Lowrie, Asdrubal Cabrera) and trade candidates (Whit Merrifield, Scooter Gennett) appear on our list of hard contact/fly ball hitters, unsurprisingly, but I wanted to focus on under-the-radar types, the guys who aren’t getting a lot of buzz. The Yankees have Tulowitzki as an insurance policy now. I don’t think they’ll let him stand in the way should a better option comes along though. Calling the middle infield situation settled would be unwise.

There is obviously much more to life than hard contact rates and ground ball rates. Defense matters, contact rate matters, plate discipline matters. Generally speaking though, if you hit the ball hard and you can hit it in the air, the Yankees will gravitate toward you. You can’t fake exit velocity — you can fake being a .300 hitter for a week, but you can’t fake a 110 mph exit velocity — and getting the ball in the air against MLB caliber pitching isn’t easy. Guys who can do it consistently are worth considering, especially while Gregorius is sidelined.

Looking for under-the-radar relief pitchers the Yankees could target this offseason

December 20, 2018 by Mike

With the rotation now in order, the Yankees have shifted their focus to the bullpen. The bullpen and a Didi Gregorius replacement. The Yankees say they want two relievers and that makes sense given the current roster. There are four open bullpen spots at the moment, and although the Yankees have no shortage of in-house candidates for those spots, it’s obvious an upgrade is in order.

It has become clear in recent years the Yankees have a “type” when it comes to relievers. They prefer relievers who miss bats, first and foremost. New York’s bullpen struck out 30.2% of the batters they faced in 2018. That’s a single season record. They broke the record held by … the 2017 Yankees (29.1%). Yankees’ relievers generated a 13.1% swing-and-miss rate this past season, third highest in baseball behind the Astros (14.5%) and Dodgers (14.1%).

The Yankees are also velocity and spin rate enthusiasts. As a team in 2018 they had the highest average fastball velocity (94.9 mph), the second highest average fastball spin rate (2,360 rpm), and the third highest average breaking ball spin rate (2,517 rpm). In fact, it seems the Yankees have prioritized spin rate over velocity the last few years. Nine pitchers threw at least 40 relief innings for the Yankees the last two seasons. Here are their average fastball velocity and spin rate numbers, with above-average rates in red:

	2017-18 Innings	FB velo	FB spin	BB spin
Chad Green	142.2	95.7 mph	2,451 rpm	2,206 rpm
Dellin Betances	126.1	98.0 mph	2,395 rpm	2,675 rpm
David Robertson	104.2	91.9 mph	2,555 rpm	2,706 rpm
Jonathan Holder	104.1	91.6 mph	2,347 rpm	2,657 rpm
Aroldis Chapman	101.2	99.4 mph	2,494 rpm	2,444 rpm
Adam Warren	87.1	92.3 mph	2,202 rpm	2,266 rpm
Chasen Shreve	83.1	92.3 mph	2,485 rpm	2,357 rpm
Tommy Kahnle	50	97.0 mph	2,268 rpm	2,448 rpm
Luis Cessa	41	92.3 mph	2,283 rpm	2,468 rpm
MLB AVG for RP		93.4 mph	2,274 rpm	2,434 rpm

Five of those nine relievers posted below-average velocity the last two years. Only two had a below-average fastball spin rate and three had a below-average breaking ball spin rate. Robertson makes up for the lack of velocity with a killer curveball. Holder and Warren are kitchen sink guys with a wide array of secondary pitches. Is it a coincidence Warren and Shreve, the two guys with the fewest red cells in that table, were shipped elsewhere this past season? Maybe not!

Betances is, for all intents and purposes, the perfect Yankees reliever. He pairs comfortably above-average fastball velocity with comfortably above-average spin rates on both his fastball and breaking ball. And he misses a ton of bats. A ton. Chapman has three red cells in that table but his breaking ball spin rate is fairly close to average. Betances is well-above-average across the board. It’s not a coincidence he is so wildly successful when he throws strikes.

Clearly, the Yankees have a “type” when it comes to relievers. They want bat-missers who can really spin the ball. The more velocity, the better, but above-average velocity is not required. Knowing that, I decided to see whether we could use that information to dig up some under-the-radar bullpen targets. So I created a list. Here’s what I did:

Found pitchers who recorded above-average spin rates on their fastball and breaking ball in 2018.
Removed pitchers with a below-average swing-and-miss rate in 2018 (league average is 11.5%).
Removed starters, recently signed free agents, current Yankees, and current Red Sox (since a trade with the Red Sox isn’t happening).
Removed established relievers who, realistically, are not attainable (Kenley Jansen, etc.).

Step One turned up 193 pitchers, which is way more than I expected. Step Two whittled the list down to 139 pitchers. Step Three brought us down to 75 relievers. And finally, Step Four got us down to 68 pitchers. There are several recent former Yankees among those 68 names (Robertson, Parker Bridwell, etc.) which I’m sure is partly coincidence and partly the result of those guys being the Yankees’ type.

Here’s my spreadsheet with those 68 relievers. Among those 68 relievers are stud free agents (Robertson, Adam Ottavino), a bunch of “I know that guy” guys (Bud Norris, Luke Gregerson, Mychal Givens), and a bunch of relievers even hardcore fans may not know. Since we’ve spent a lot of time looking at the big names already this winter, we’re going to rummage through those 68 names to find potential under-the-radar bullpen targets. Here are five who caught me eye.

RHP Dan Altavilla, Mariners

Fastball Velocity: 96.6 mph
Fastball Spin Rate: 2,367 rpm
Breaking Ball Spin Rate: 2,786 rpm
Swing-and-Miss Rate: 13.6%

Who is he? Altavilla, 26, was a fifth round pick in 2014 who really broke out when the Mariners moved him into the bullpen full-time in 2016. He’s had cups of coffee with Seattle each of the last three years and owns a 3.28 ERA (4.32 FIP) with a good strikeout rate (25.3%) and a not good walk rate (10.7%) in 79.2 career big league innings. He has ground ball (39.0%) and home run (1.24 HR/9) issues at times. Altavilla is a classic fastball/slider reliever who threw those pitches at close to a 50/50 split this year.

What’s his contract status? With one year and 129 days of service time (1.129), Altavilla comes with five years of team control, though he (likely) will be arbitration for the first of four times as a Super Two next offseason should he spend the entire 2019 season in the big leagues. That’s not a big deal. Arbitration doesn’t pay middle relievers well. Altavilla also has a minor league option remaining, so he can go to Triple-A without a problem next year.

Yay or nay? I think yay. The high walk rate is largely the result of a rough stretch this season in which he walked nine batters in 8.2 innings. He has a more tolerable 9.1% walk rate in his MLB career outside those 8.2 innings. We know the Mariners are selling and I can’t imagine they’d make a 26-year-old middle reliever off-limits in trade talks. There’s a chance at a 30% strikeout rate here.

RHP Daniel Hudson, Free Agent

Fastball Velocity: 95.4 mph
Fastball Spin Rate: 2,439 rpm
Breaking Ball Spin Rate: 2,569 rpm
Swing-and-Miss Rate: 13.9%

Who is he? Hudson is pretty well known by now. The soon-to-be 32-year-old made his big league debut back in 2009 and he’s been a full-time reliever since a pair of Tommy John surgeries limited him to 48 innings from 2012-14. Hudson spent last season with the Dodgers — he went from the Pirates to the Rays in the Corey Dickerson trade and Tampa immediately released him — throwing 46 innings with a 4.11 ERA (4.38 FIP) and good enough strikeout (22.3%) and walk (9.1%) rates. Those numbers are more or less in line with his career norms since the two elbow reconstructions. Hudson’s a fastball/slider guy.

What’s his contract status? Hudson’s a free agent and no one ranked him as a top 50 free agent, so we don’t have any contract estimates. Two years ago he signed a two-year, $11M contract with Pittsburgh and they salary dumped him one year later. My hunch is Hudson’s looking at a one-year deal worth $5M or less. It’s worth noting the Yankees requested his medical information earlier this offseason.

Yay nor nay? I’m going to say nay. Hudson has been the same guy these last four years and that was true even after the Dodgers got him to throw far more sliders (40%) than ever this year. A low cost one-year contract is basically no risk. I’m just not sure there’s reason to believe Hudson has another level in his performance at this point of his career.

RHP DJ Johnson, Rockies

Fastball Velocity: 93.5 mph
Fastball Spin Rate: 2,338 rpm
Breaking Ball Spin Rate: 2,586 rpm
Swing-and-Miss Rate: 16.2%

Who is he? An undrafted free agent out of Western Oregon, the 29-year-old Johnson went from the Rays to the Diamondbacks to an independent league to the Twins to the Angels to the Rockies from 2010-18. He made his MLB debut as a September call-up this past season and struck out nine in 6.1 innings, which was good enough to land him a spot on Colorado’s Wild Card Game and NLDS rosters. Prior to that, Johnson had a 3.90 ERA (2.81 FIP) with 35.7% strikeouts and 6.4% walks in 55.1 Triple-A innings. He’s another fastball/slider reliever.

What’s his contract status? Johnson was added to a 40-man roster for the very first time in September, so he comes with all six years of team control and all three minor league options. That said, he’s a 29-year-old rookie, so chances are he won’t see the end of those six years of control, and if you’re still optioning him down at age 31, he’s probably not worth keeping around.

Yay or nay? I am intrigued enough to say yay but I’ve also been doing this long enough to know most 29-year-old rookies amount to nothing. The Brad Zieglers are few and far between. Maybe the Rockies like one out of the out-of-options guys (Luis Cessa, A.J. Cole, Tommy Kahnle) enough to do a one-for-one trade and the Yankees could swap an unoptionable pitcher for an optionable pitcher?

RHP Phil Maton, Padres

Fastball Velocity: 91.9 mph
Fastball Spin Rate: 2,563 rpm
Breaking Ball Spin Rate: 2,749 rpm
Swing-and-Miss Rate: 15.4%

Who is he? Maton, 25, is a former 20th round pick who worked his way up the minor league ladder and has thrown 90.1 big league innings with a 4.28 ERA (4.12 FIP) and good enough strikeout (25.6%) and walk (9.4%) rates the last two years. The grounder (40.3%) and homer (1.30 HR/9) rates are worrisome. Unlike everyone else in this post, Maton is a fastball/curveball pitcher, not a fastball/slider pitcher.

What’s his contract status? Maton is at 1.107 years of service time, so he has five years of control, including two as a pre-arbitration-eligible player. He also has two minor league options remaining.

Yay or nay? I’m a hard yay. Maton doesn’t have overwhelming velocity but he spins the hell out of his fastball and he knows how to pitch up in the zone with it, and that mixes quite well with a hard downer curveball. The walk and grounder rates are not good, but hey, maybe they’ll improve with experience. Only one needs to improve, really. There are a lot of Padres pitchers on my list of 68 pitchers (Maton, Matt Strahm, Miguel Diaz, etc.) so maybe a package of two or three makes sense in a Sonny Gray trade.

RHP Chad Sobotka, Braves

Fastball Velocity: 96.6 mph
Fastball Spin Rate: 2,391 rpm
Breaking Ball Spin Rate: 2,802 rpm
Swing-and-Miss Rate: 13.6%

Who is he? The 25-year-old Sobotka was a fourth round pick in 2014 and he reached the big leagues for the first time as an up-and-down arm in the second half this year. He struck out 21 and walked nine in 14.1 innings — that works out to a 36.2% strikeout rate and a 15.5% walk rate — and made the club’s NLDS roster. Sobotka had 2.03 ERA (2.67 FIP) with 33.3% strikeouts and 12.6% walks in 57.2 minor league innings before his call-up. He’s another fastball/slider guy. They are all over the place.

What’s his contract status? Sobotka has less than a year of service time and he didn’t even burn an option this year, so he has six years of control and all three minor league options remaining.

Yay or nay? I lean yay but Sobotka’s career-long control issues are significant — he has an 11.9% walk rate in the minors — and do give me some pause. A potential issue here (and with Johnson, I suppose) is that the Braves are contending and may not want to trade away a hard-throwing, high-strikeout, optionable reliever. Finding a trade match might not be easy.

* * *

There is much more to life than spin rate, of course. Bryan Mitchell could spin the ball like nobody’s business but he couldn’t miss bats. Spin rate is just one tool in the shed, as is swing-and-miss rate and velocity and all sorts of other things. Find the right mix and it can work well. And sometimes you think you have the right mix and it doesn’t work for whatever reason. That’s baseball. Live and learn. The Yankees seem to have the spin thing worked out pretty well.

The point of this exercise is to find pitchers who could be attractive to the Yankees because of the skills they possess, not because of what they’ve done in the past. We’re looking for guys who’ve yet to really establish themselves as above-average big league relievers with the idea that the Yankees could pick them up, maybe tweak some things, then benefit from an uptick in performance. They’re not big name players and that’s the point. To get them before they become big names.

Granted, it is only December 20th, but the deeper we go into the offseason without the Yankees making a bullpen addition, the more I expect them to bring in a surprise reliever. Heck, they could add the two relievers they’re said to want plus a surprise reliever. And, given their recent history and the kind of relievers they’ve rostered, the smart money is on that hypothetical surprise reliever having high spin rates and a history of missing bats.

Hot Stove Rumors: Cano, Ellsbury, Goldschmidt, Sheffield, Gray

November 26, 2018 by Mike

I do miss that swing. (Stephen Lam/Getty)

Thanksgiving weekend is over and the hot stove is starting to heat up. Earlier today the Braves signed both Brian McCann (one year, $2M) and Josh Donaldson (one year, $23M), so the defending NL East champs are makin’ moves. The Yankees still have a lot to do this offseason even after re-signing Brett Gardner and CC Sabathia, and trading for James Paxton. Here are the latest hot stove rumblings.

Yankees, Mariners talked Cano for Ellsbury

Earlier this offseason the Yankees and Mariners briefly discussed a Robinson Cano for Jacoby Ellsbury trade, reports Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d). Talks didn’t advance much because the Yankees wanted Seattle to include “significant cash” in the trade in addition to taking Ellsbury. Cano has five years and $120M remaining on his contract. Ellsbury has two years and $47M. Rosenthal adds the Yankees are wary about having to commit their DH spot to Cano down the line. There are also two no-trade clauses to navigate (Robbie would probably okay a trade back to New York in a heartbeat).

Cano, 36, hit .303/.374/.471 (136 wRC+) with ten homers in 80 games around his performance-enhancing drug suspension this year. The Yankees could stick him at second until Didi Gregorius returns, then slide him over to first base, which he played briefly in 2018. Cano is a better player than Ellsbury, there’s little doubt about that, but those last five years on his contract could be heavy decline years. The Yankees limited their offer to seven years back when Cano was a free agent because they wanted to avoid those age 38-40 seasons, remember. When we’re talking two years vs. five years in a bad contract swap, my preference is the shorter deal. Just get it over with, you know?

Yankees pushed Sheffield in Goldschmidt talks

According to Buster Olney (subs. req’d), the Yankees pushed Justus Sheffield in trade talks with the Diamondbacks about Paul Goldschmidt before sending Sheffield to the Mariners in the Paxton deal. Actually, Olney says “rival executives report” the Yankees pushed Sheffield in Goldschmidt talks, which is an important distinction. This is a secondhand rumor. Hmmm.

Three weeks ago we heard the Yankees had not yet shown interest in Goldschmidt, though things could’ve easily changed since then. And, even though Goldschmidt will be a free agent next winter, it wouldn’t be unreasonable for the D’Backs to seek a Sheffield caliber prospect in return. Goldschmidt’s really good! The Yankees pushing Sheffield in talks though? That’s interesting, assuming it’s true. This would hardly be the first time the Yankees weren’t as high on a prospect internally as they let on.

More teams showing interest in Gray

We can add four more teams to the Sonny Gray trade rumor mill. Nick Cafardo reports the Braves, Padres, Rangers, and Twins have expressed interest in Gray in recent weeks. The Athletics and Reds are in on him as well. I reckon more than those six teams are interested in Sonny. Even with only one relatively inexpensive year of control, he’s a good buy-low candidate who makes sense for contenders and rebuilders alike.

The Yankees are going to trade Gray at some point, Brian Cashman has made that very clear, and my hunch is it will happen fairly soon. Likely at some point before the Winter Meetings in two weeks. Trading Gray eliminates the distraction to some degree. More than anything though, it’ll provide clarity. What do the Yankees get in return? How much money do they save, if any? Answering those questions will help shape the rest of the offseason going forward.

Yankees trying to move Stanton?

There are “long-shot rumblings” the Yankees are trying to move Giancarlo Stanton, reports Cafardo. That’s a weird way to phrase it. “Long-shot rumblings?” Huh. Anyway, I don’t really buy this. I’m sure the Yankees are open to moving Stanton because they’re open to moving anyyone in the right deal, but his no-trade clause complicates things, as does having to replace him. Dudes who hit 38 homers with a 127 wRC+ in a down year are hard to find.

The Yankees could of course trade Stanton and replace him by signing Bryce Harper (or Manny Machado), but get outta here with that. For starters, the Yankees should be trying to add Harper (or Machado) to Stanton, not replacing one with the other. And secondly, Stanton carries a $22M luxury tax hit and Harper (or Machado) will come in around 150% of that, if not more, for similar production. If the Yankees are going to obsess over payroll, and it sure seems like they are, Stanton’s the far better value. Well, whatever. There’s no sense in dwelling on this because it probably won’t happen.

2018 Trade Deadline Rumors: Monday

July 30, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

The 2018 non-waiver trade deadline is one day away. The Yankees have already made several trades, most notably acquiring Zach Britton from the Orioles and J.A. Happ from the Blue Jays. Lot more early trades than usual this year, no? Not just the Yankees, all around baseball. Manny Machado, Brad Hand, Cole Hamels, Nathan Eovaldi, Jeurys Familia, Mike Moustakas … all traded already. Weird.

Anyway, even after adding Britton and Happ, the Yankees could still make some moves prior to tomorrow’s 4pm ET deadline. Aaron Judge will miss at least three weeks with a wrist injury, so the Yankees could look to bring in another bat. Also, another catcher could be in order too. Gary Sanchez might not return until September. Plus pitching depth. I’m sure they’re still open to adding a controllable starter.

“We haven’t peeled the onion enough to tell you exactly what we will do. If something presents itself that allows us flexibility and makes sense, we can evaluate that,” said Brian Cashman to Joel Sherman following the Judge injury. “I’m sure things will be thrown our way (now that Judge is out). We will see if anything makes sense as we navigate the marketplace before it closes.”

We’re going to keep track of all the day’s Yankees-related trade rumors right here. I can’t promise there were will be many of them because the Yankees have already addressed their most pressing needs with Britton and especially Happ, but I’m sure there will be some. Chat about all the day’s trade deadline rumors and activity right here.

4:48pm ET: It is “not likely” the Yankees will acquire Archer, which doesn’t surprise me. Non-rental intra-division trades can be complicated and so many other teams are in the mix that Tampa shouldn’t have trouble getting a strong offer. [Heyman]
12:22pm ET: The Yankees are among the teams to have shown the most interest in Zack Wheeler. The Mets have set a high price because he’s pitched well lately, though his injury history suggests a smaller return is warranted. [Heyman]
11:30am ET: The Yankees are among the main players for Chris Archer, along with the Padres, Dodgers, and Braves. Tampa Bay had scouts watching Justus Sheffield and Triple-A Scranton on Saturday. [Jon Heyman, Ken Rosenthal]
11:30am ET: Not surprisingly, the Yankees have interest in adding a bat in the wake of the Judge injury. Specifically, they’re looking for a right-handed hitter who can play the outfield. They’re looking, but it’s not considered a pressing need. [Heyman]
11:30am ET: The Braves are among the teams scouting Sonny Gray. The Cardinals, Dodgers, Giants, Indians, and Phillies all had scouts at Yankee Stadium over the weekend. [Brendan Kuty, George King]

Reminder: Your trade proposal sucks.

Yankeemetrics: Bronx fireworks spark Bombers (July 2-4)

July 5, 2018 by Katie Sharp Leave a Comment

Choking, silent bats
Monday’s 5-3 loss in the series opener was one of the most frustrating losses of the season, as the Yankees wasted numerous scoring chances and repeatedly failed to bring runners home in key situations. They were 0-for-12 with runners in scoring position, their most hitless at-bats with RISP this season.

Jonathan Loaisiga flashed some dominant off-speed stuff (career-high 13 combined whiffs on his curve and changeup) but really struggled to put away batters. Four of the five hits (including two doubles and the homer) he gave up came with two strikes; in his first three starts, batters were 7-for-35 (.200) with two strikes against Loaisiga.

Aaron Judge gave the Yankees an early lead when he poked an 0-2 cutter over the wall in right field. With a projected distance of 340 feet, it was the second-shortest home run Judge has hit; the only shorter one was a 337-foot shot on May 2 last year. It was also his 12th homer in a two-strike count this season, the most in MLB and two more than any other player through Monday.

Gleyber Torres was only other offensive star with a career-high three hits and two runs scored. At age 21 years and 201 days, he was the youngest Yankee with a three-hit game at Yankee Stadium since a 19-year-old Bobby Murcer on September 25, 1965.

One of those hits was his 10th career double, making him just the third Yankee with at least 10 doubles and 15 homers in his age-21 season or younger. The others? You guessed it, Mickey Mantle (1952, 1953) and Joe DiMaggio (1936). Even more impressive (maybe), he is the only rookie second baseman age 21 or younger in MLB history to hit at least 10 doubles and 15 homers in a season.

David Robertson wore the goat’s horns, coughing up the game-winning homer to Ronald Acuna in the top of the 11th. It was the first dinger Robertson had allowed to a right-handed batter since re-joining the Yankees last summer; Acuna was the 170th righty he had faced in that span.

Survive and advance
Although it might have been the ugliest win of the season, Tuesday’s 8-5 victory still counts the same as the others and — most importantly — helped the Yankees keep pace with the equally scorching-hot Red Sox in the division race.

The Yankees sprinted out to a 6-0 lead thanks to the good ol’ power/patience formula. Aaron Hicks put the Yankees on board in the first inning with a two-run blast, his 15th homer of the season, matching the career-high he set last year. He is the fifth Yankee to hit 15 dingers in 2018, the only team in MLB with that many 15-homer players this year. This is the first Yankee team ever to have five players hit at least 15 homers before the All-Star break.

Kyle Higashioka extended the lead to 3-0 with his second career homer — and second career hit — in the second inning. He became the third player in franchise history to have his first two MLB hits go over the fence, joining Alfonso Soriano (1999-2000) and Joe Lefebvre (1980). Before joining the Yankees last week, he was slugging .328 at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, which ranked 177th out of 198 players with at least 200 PA across all Triple-A leagues this season.

The Yankees scored two more runs in the third inning without a hit, walking five times, including twice with the bases loaded. It was their ninth and 10th bases loaded walks of the season, tied with the Diamondbacks for the most in the majors. They had just seven bases-loaded walks all of last year.

And it was the first time in more than seven years they scored two runs in an inning without getting a hit or reaching on an error, since the third inning of a game against the White Sox on April 28, 2011.

Miguel Andujar reached another milestone when he doubled in the fifth inning, his 40th career extra-base hit. He is the third Yankee to compile 40 extra-base hits in their first 78 career games, along with Bob Meusel and Joe DiMaggio.

Giancarlo Stanton joined the milestone party in the eighth inning with his 20th longball of the year, the ninth time in nine MLB seasons he hit 20 or more homers. He’s the 11th player in MLB history to go deep at least 20 times in each of their first nine major-league seasons, joining this elite group:

Mark Teixeira
Albert Pujols
Darryl Strawberry
Eddie Murray
Frank Robinson
Eddie Mathews
Ralph Kiner
Ted Williams
Joe DiMaggio
Bob Johnson

Happy Fourth of July in the Bronx
The Yankees celebrated Independence Day in style, beating the Braves 6-2 behind a solid effort from CC Sabathia and a dose of power from their relentlessly deep lineup.

Sabathia was in vintage form and delivered another gutsy performance, giving up just two runs in six innings despite putting 10 of the 27 batters he faced on base. At the midpoint of 2018, his ERA is 3.02, on pace to be the second-best by any pitcher in franchise history in his age-37 season or older (min. 25 starts), behind only Spud Chandler’s 2.10 in 1946.

Giancarlo Stanton homered for the second straight day, giving him five homers in his last 11 games at Yankee Stadium; he had six homers in his first 34 home games. Kyle Higashioka lived up to his John Sterling nickname (Kyle Higashioka, the Home Run Stroker!) when he went deep again for his third career homer — and third career hit. He is the ninth player since 1920 to have each of his first three career hits be homers — the only other Yankee on the list is Alfonso Soriano.

Aaron Judge capped off the dinger fireworks with a moonshot in the seventh inning …

The poor baseball left his bat at an angle of 45 degrees, the highest home run of Judge’s career. In the Statcast era (since 2015), only two other Yankees have hit homers with a higher launch angle: Mark Teixeira (48 degrees on July 3, 2016) and Ji-Man Choi (46 degrees on July 7, 2017).

7/2 to 7/4 Series Preview: Atlanta Braves

July 2, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

This is the last home series of the first half for the Yankees and, surprisingly, a battle of first place teams. By winning percentage, these are the best and fifth-best teams in baseball, and I’d hazard that both are surprising, albeit to significantly varying degrees.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees visited Atlanta for a three-game set back in August of 2015, picking up the sweep by a combined score of 38 to 11; and, no, that’s not a typo. Some notes from the series:

Didi Gregorius had a hell of a series, going 7-for-12 with a double, a home run, and 8 RBI. His OPS on the season jumped by 29 points as a result – all the way up to .672. It’s amazing how far he’s come.
Game two was the second start of Luis Severino’s career, and it was one of the best of his rookie season. He went 6 scoreless innings, allowing four hits and three walks, while striking out 5.
The Yankees hung 20 runs on the Braves in the last game of the series. They put 30 runners on base, with ten different players reaching safely. Nate Eovaldi – the starting pitcher – was the only starter that didn’t have a hit … but even he scored a run, having reached base as the result of a fielder’s choice. Stephen Drew (!) was the star of the game, going 4-for-4 with 3 runs scored, a home run, 4 RBI, and 2 walks.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for points of interest.

Injury Report

Top prospect and rookie of the year candidate Mike Soroka was placed on the disabled list with right shoulder inflammation a couple of weeks ago, and was transferred to the 60-day disabled list last week – that’s not a great sign. Brandon McCarthy is also on the DL due to right knee tendinitis, and will not be back until after the All-Star break. Closer Arodys Vizcaino was also out with right shoulder inflammation, but he’s expected back for this series.

Their Story So Far

The Braves are 48-34 with a +82 run differential – and both of those marks rank fifth in all of baseball. They lead the NL East by three games, and have a 6-4 record against the third-place Nationals thus far. And they’re coming off of a three-game sweep of the Cardinals.

How did we get here?

The short version is simply that the Braves farm system – which was arguably the best in baseball over the last couple of years – has paid tremendous dividends. Former top prospects Ozzie Albies (120 wRC+), Ronald Acuna (115 wRC+), and Sean Newcomb (143 ERA+) have been excellent so far, and most every other young player to get the call has performed admirably. Toss in Freddie Freeman (153 wRC+) continuing to be one of the best hitters in baseball, Nick Markakis (134 wRC+) finding the fountain of youth, and a team that profiles as average or better in offense, pitching, and defense, and you have a formula for success.

The Lineup We Might See

Third-year manager Brian Snitker has had a steady hand with the lineup, with most of the shakeups coming as a result of promotions, demotions, and injuries. The biggest question will be who he’ll use to DH. Regardless, we should see something along these lines:

Ender Inciarte, CF – .247/.309/.341, 5 HR, 21 SB
Ozzie Albies, 2B – .275/.316/.507, 17 HR, 7 SB
Freddie Freeman, 1B – .315/.407/.546, 16 HR, 6 SB
Nick Markakis, RF – .323/.389/.488, 9 HR, 1 SB
Kurt Suzuki, C – .287/.352/.484, 8 HR, 0 SB
Ronald Acuna, LF – .269/.329/.469, 6 HR, 2 SB
Tyler Flowers, DH – .250/.378/.402, 4 HR, 0 SB
Dansby Swanson, SS – .249/.300/.418, 7 HR, 3 SB
Johan Camargo, 3B – .254/.357/.434, 7 HR, 0 SB

Charlie Culberson (110 wRC+) may start at third base or DH, as well.

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Monday (7:05 EST) – RHP Jonathan Loaisiga vs. RHP Anibal Sanchez

In case you were wondering, yes – this is the Anibal Sanchez that posted a 5.67 ERA (5.01 FIP) across 415.2 IP from 2015 through 2017. He has been something of a revelation for the Braves this year, though, pitching to a 2.68 ERA (145 ERA+) in 47.0 IP, even as his velocity slips. There are some signs that this is unsustainable – notably his 4.05 FIP – but the Braves couldn’t have asked for much more than a scrapheap pickup for $1 MM.

Sanchez has become something of a junkballer, throwing six pitches, and none of them more than 27% of the time. Those offerings are a low-90s four-seamer, a low-90s sinker, a high-80s cutter, a low-80s slider, a low-80s change-up, and a high-70s curve.

Last outing (vs. CIN on 6/26) – 4.2 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 K

Tuesday (7:05 EST) – RHP Domingo German vs. LHP Sean Newcomb

Newcomb turned in a solid rookie campaign in 2017, pitching to a 4.32 ERA (98 ERA+) in 100.0 IP, but his 12.5% walk rate was a major red flag. He’s cut that down by almost two percentage points (10.9%), without sacrificing much in the way of strikeouts – his K/9 has dropped, but his K% has actually went up a tick. Factor in a 3-plus percentage point jump in grounders, and Newcomb is pitching to a 2.71 ERA (143 ERA+) in 93.0 IP.

Newcomb is basically a three-pitch guy, with a low-to-mid 90s four-seamer, a mid-80s change-up, and a devastating mid-70s curveball. He’ll flash a low-80s slider every so often, too, but it’s basically a slightly harder curve.

Last outing (vs. CIN on 6/27) – 6.0 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 6 K

Wednesday (1:05 EST) – LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Julio Teheran

It wasn’t so long ago that Teheran was perpetually on the trading block, as a young pitcher on a good contract that didn’t quite fit the Braves timeline. Nowadays he’s bringing up the rear of the team’s rotation, having never quite getting back to the levels of strong campaigns in his first two seasons. He currently sports a 4.21 ERA and 5.12 FIP, with a career-worst 11.3% walk rate.

Teheran throws five pitches – a low-90s four-seamer, a high-80s sinker, a low-80s change-up, a low-80s slider, and a low-70s curve. His velocity is down across the board this season, though, which is not an encouraging sign.

Last outing (vs. STL on 6/29) – 6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 4 K

The Bullpen

The Braves bullpen is very top-heavy, with Arodys Vizcaino (1.82 ERA. 27.1 K%), Dan Winkler (2.41 ERA, 31.3 K%), Jesse Biddle (2.76 ERA, 25.0 K%), A.J. Minter (2.83 ERA, 25.7 K%), and Shane Carle (2.93 ERA, 19.2 K%), all putting in good work. Beyond those five, however, it’s something of a trainwreck, which is why the Braves bullpen is 22nd in the game in ERA+. None of their starters go deep into the games, either, which means those not-so-good options see a lot of innings.

Yankees Connection

Former Yankees Brandon McCarthy and Jacob Lindgren are on the disabled list, which is an unfortunately common issue. Arodys Vizcaino was dealt by the Yankees way back in 2009, as a part of the ill-fated Javier Vazquez/Boone Logan deal; he has a career 135 ERA+ in 181.2 IP, but he’s dealt with a laundry list of injuries.

Who (Or What) To Watch

Acuna and Albies are two of the most exciting players in baseball, and they’re the second and fourth-youngest players in the game, respectively. And, if you’re a fan of defense, Inciarte is one of the best defensive center-fielders around.