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2019 Salary Arbitration Filing Day Updates

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Sir Didi & Hicks. (Presswire)

Today is an important date on the offseason calendar. Today is the deadline for teams and their arbitration-eligible players to file salary figures with the league. The player files what he believes he should be paid in 2019. The team files what they believe the player should be paid in 2019. Pretty straightforward, right? There is a lot of money on the line today around the league.

Most arbitration-eligible players will agree to 2019 contracts today. Only a handful will actually file salary figures. The two sides can still work out a contract of any size even after filing salary figures, but most teams employ a “file and trial” approach, meaning once they file numbers, they cut off contract talks and go to an arbitration hearing. That’s designed to put pressure on the player to sign.

If the two sides do go to a hearing, they will each defend their filing number and state their case to the three-person panel. It can get ugly. Jeff Passan says the Red Sox played a Kris Bryant highlight video during their hearing with Mookie Betts last year to show the panel Betts is not as good as Bryant, and didn’t deserve a similar salary. Ouch. (It didn’t work. Betts won.) The panel will ultimately pick either the salary the player filed or the salary the team filed. Nothing in between.

The Yankees have a massive arbitration class this season. Not only do they have nine arbitration-eligible players, those nine players combine for over $50M in projected salary in 2019. Last year’s nine-player arbitration class ran only $29.2525M in actual salary. This year’s arbitration class could come close to doubling that. Arbitration-eligible players could chew up more than a quarter of the $206M luxury tax threshold.

Unless something unexpected happens, like a long-term extension, we’re going to keep track of all the day’s Yankees-related arbitration news right here in this one post. The Didi Gregorius situation is the important one to watch. Here are this year’s arbitration-eligible Yankees and their projected salaries, via MLBTR:

Service Time (years.days) MLBTR Projection Actual 2019 Salary
Didi Gregorius 5.159 $12.4M $11.75M
Dellin Betances 5.078 $6.4M $7.25M
Sonny Gray 5.061 $9.1M $7.5M
Austin Romine 5.045 $2M $1.8M
Aaron Hicks 5.041 $6.2M $6M
James Paxton 4.151 $9M $8.575M
Tommy Kahnle 3.131 $1.5M $1.3875
Greg Bird 3.053 $1.5M $1.2M
Luis Severino 2.170 $5.1M Filed
Total $53.2M $45.4625M

As a reminder, players with 0-3 years of service time are pre-arbitration-eligible and teams can pay them pretty much whatever they want. Players with 3-6 years of service time are arbitration-eligible. (Severino is a Super Two and will be arbitration four times instead of the usual three. Here’s a Super Two primer.) Players with more than six years of service time are eligible for free agency.

The Yankees have been to one arbitration hearing in the last ten years (Betances in 2017), and, for the most part, they get their players signed before the filing deadline. They have had a few negotiations continue beyond the filing deadline, most notably Aroldis Chapman in 2016. Generally speaking though, the Yankees get their guys signed before the salary filing deadline. They’ll be busy today given their sizeable arbitration class.

It’s worth noting one-year contracts for arbitration-eligible players are not guaranteed. These players can be released in Spring Training and owed only 30 days or 45 days termination pay, depending on the exact date of the release. Chances are none of them will get released in camp. It doesn’t happen often. Kahnle seems most at risk of a Spring Training release should he show up to Tampa with his velocity still missing.

Anyway, the salary figure filing deadline is 1pm ET but news is going to trickle in through the day. The Yankees tend to announce everything all at once at the end of the business day, so official confirmation is still a few hours away. Here’s the latest contract news for arbitration-eligible Yankees. Check back throughout the day for updates.

12:00pm ET: According to Bob Nightengale, the Yankees and Bird have agreed to a one-year deal worth $1.2M. Bird has played in only 130 of 486 possible games the last three seasons, though he was accruing service time while on the Major League disabled list, so he’s arbitration-eligible.

12:00pm ET: Romine and the Yankees have agreed to a $1.8M salary for 2019, reports Nightengale. Thus far both signings come in a tick below the MLBTR projection. Probably just a coincidence, but, given the state of free agency, I can’t help but wonder if teams are putting the squeeze are arbitration-eligible players too.

12:57pm ET: Hicks gets a $6M salary for the coming season, according to Nightengale. Another below projection number. Hmmm. The big question now: Will the Yankees and Hicks discuss a long-term extension at some point, or is this it until he becomes a free agent after the season?

4:12pm ET: Jeff Passan reports the Yankees and Luis Severino did not agree to a contract before the 1pm ET deadline. They’re expected to go to an arbitration hearing. No word on their salary filing figures yet. Those will come out eventually.

5:25pm ET: The Yankees and Betances agreed to a one-year deal at $7.25M, reports Sweeny Murti. That is well-above the MLBTR projection. Good for Dellin. Of course, the Yanks beat him in arbitration a few years ago, so his salary is lower than what it could’ve been.

5:52pm ET: The Yankees have agreed to one-year contracts with all their arbitration-eligible players except Severino, the team announced. We’re still waiting on Severino’s filing numbers as well as salary numbers for Gregorius, Paxton, Gray, and Kahnle.

9:55pm ET: Ron Blum says Gregorius received $11.75M, Paxton received $8.575M, and Gray received $7.5M. So much for the Yankees getting Gregorius at a discount while he rehabs from Tommy John surgery. Also, Severino filed for $5.25M while the Yankees countered with $4.4M. Arbitration hearings will take place in February. Still no word on Kahnle’s salary.

Saturday, 10:12am ET: Blum’s story has been updated to include Kahnle’s salary. He gets $1,387,500. Seven of the eight arbitration-eligible Yankees who signed yesterday signed below their MLBTR projection, with Betances the lone exception. Those eight players combine for $45.4625M in salary, so, even if Severino wins his hearing, this year’s class comes in at roughly $2.5M below the projection.

The Perfectly Cromulent Backup Catcher [2018 Season Review]

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(Al Bello/Getty Images)

A backup catcher in New York has the popularity of a backup quarterback, particularly in the age of Gary Sanchez. Despite Austin Romine being one of the worst players in all of baseball in 2017, fans and columnists still pined for him to start games over Sanchez. All over a perceived ability to block balls in the dirt better, though Romine allowed a wild pitch in his one playoff start.

But 2018 was different in that Romine wasn’t a complete negative. For the first time in his career, he produced positive WAR and was near league average with his bat while making his most plate appearances. Perhaps it was a fluke, but for one season, the 29-year-old catcher was a perfectly fine backup. Nothing flashy, nothing awful.

Starting Strong

In April 2017, Romine batted .314/.351/.471 with two home runs and a 115 wRC+. It was easily the best month of his career and made some think he deserved more starts. Those people were wrong. He had a -39 wRC+ (Negative, not a typo) that May and was well below average the rest of the year with no more dingers.

A year later and Romine was OK in April. He drew four walks to buoy his batting line while also producing three hits, including a tying single, against the Orioles on April 8.

May was a different story. In eight starts, he topped April 2017 with a dynamic month at the plate. He hit in each game and had an 11-game hitting streak from April 30 to June 4. He hit home runs in three out of four games and it wasn’t all cheapies! His first homer of the year finished off a blowout win over the Royals and was to deep left-center in Kansas City.

Before Sanchez went on the disabled list on June 25, Romine was actually one of the Yankees’ better hitters. He was hitting .305/.370/.524 and had 10 extra-base hits to his name in just 92 plate appearances.

Filling In

For over two months, Romine became the Yankees’ primary catcher with Sanchez sidelined with hamstring issues. With Kyle Higashioka playing occasionally, Romine was tasked with the day-to-day work and stepped into a bigger role than he’s ever filled, dating back to his rookie season in 2013.

It’d be a lie to say he held his own. The 29-year-old backstop wasn’t nearly as good as he was earlier in the season and he went back to being a hole in the lineup more often than not. Teams ran on him with reckless abandon and were successful at a high rate. That being said, his July was his second-best month of the year, posting league-average marks and a .213 ISO before a weak August.

While Sanchez was out, Romine did give the Yankees a few memorable moments, the biggest being his Little League homer to beat the Indians just before the All Star break. It was a well-hit double to the gap. Then chaos ensued.

Romine homered three times in August, but he struck out in more than 30 percent of his plate appearances while losing 47 points off his OPS.

Poor Ending to a Good Season

After Sanchez came back, Romine played in just seven games with just six starts. He didn’t play for 10 days at one point. He had just three hits over 22 at-bats and grounded into as many double plays as he scored runs. It was his worst month at the plate, but that has a lot to the infrequent playing time. Even while playing his MLB career as a backup, Romine still had to adjust from everyday starts to very little playing time in a short period.

For the season, Romine hit .244/.295/.417 (91 wRC+) with 10 homers, 12 doubles and 42 RBI, all of which were career-bests. He produced 1.4 bWAR and 0.8 fWAR. He tied for the fifth-highest wRC+ for a secondary catcher.

On the defensive end, Romine was good. I can’t tell you how well he calls a game, but everyone involved with the Yankees raves about his talent there. Baseball Prospectus rated him as an above-average framer with 4.2 Framing Runs. After allowing 28 wild pitches and four passed balls in 2017, he gave up 17 WPs and 5 PBs. He even produced 2.2 Blocking Runs after being negative in that category before 2018. Overall, BP had him with 6.8 Fielding Runs Above Average.

Where Romine often receives criticism is for his poor throwing arm. After throwing out just three of 29 runners last year, he approached league average, nailing 16 of 61 attempted runners. That’s 26 percent while the league caught 28 percent. Not great, but certainly manageable.

(Getty Images)

The Odd Life of Austin Romine

I just want to get to some of the weird moments in Romine’s season outside of the Little League homer. It was a low-key peculiar season for the Yankees’ backstop and we shouldn’t forget the moments that made it so.

First up, he made one playoff appearance … and it was on the mound. We’d all like to forget ALDS Game 3, but Romine’s appearance was as memorable as they get. Brock Holt homered off him for the cycle, but he wasn’t the worst pitcher the Yankees threw out there that night. He hit 90 mph!

Beyond the mound, Romine was run over at the plate by Caleb Joseph on Aug. 1 and it was just a wonderful mess. Here’s the video … and here’s the aftermath.

(MLB.com Screenshot)

And finally, there’s his brother punching him during the middle of a live baseball game. What a sport!

What’s Next?

Romine will be arbitration-eligible for the third and final time in 2019 after turning 30 on Nov. 22. MLB Trade Rumors projects him to receive $2.0 million after earning $1.1 million last season. He’ll be a free agent after the year.

Don’t expect Romine to replicate his 2018 season next year. His tail-off in the second half portends a fall to Earth, though he seemed to legitimately improve at turning on pitches and showing off some power last year. That 10-homer power might just stick.

He also shouldn’t get nearly the playing time he had last year. Sanchez is the starting catcher, plain and simple, and there’s no way he should be as bad in 2019. If he is, then the Yankees need to acquire a catcher instead of turning to Romine. However, Romine can take over in a pinch when Sanchez is inevitably banged up.

The Yankees have their priciest arbitration class in years this offseason and some big decisions are required

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(Elsa/Getty)

Given the roster situation and contention window, the Yankees figure to be very active this winter. The team is ready to win now but they need help, particularly in the rotation, but also elsewhere on the roster. The injured Didi Gregorius has to be replaced, as do impending free agents David Robertson and Zach Britton, among others. These next few months should be busy.

The Yankees already have their core in place — they need to supplement this offseason more than overhaul — and they’re going to spend at least part of the offseason keeping that core in place. Guys like Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres and Gary Sanchez are still in their pre-arbitration years and will make something close to the league minimum next year. Others like Gregorius and Luis Severino are arbitration-eligible and will cost a bit more.

Last week Matt Swartz released his 2019 salary arbitration projections at MLB Trade Rumors. There are always exceptions, but Matt’s system is very accurate overall. These aren’t “in the ballpark” numbers. These tend to be close to dead on. Here is the Yanks’ arbitration class and their projected 2019 salaries:

  • Didi Gregorius: $12.4M (fourth time eligible as a Super Two)
  • Sonny Gray: $9.1M (third time)
  • Dellin Betances: $6.4M (third time)
  • Aaron Hicks: $6.2M (third time)
  • Luis Severino: $5.1M (first time as a Super Two)
  • Austin Romine: $2.0M (third time)
  • Tommy Kahnle: $1.5M (second time as a Super Two)
  • Greg Bird: $1.5M (first time)
  • Ronald Torreyes: $900K (first time as a Super Two)

The nine-person arbitration class projects to cost the Yankees a whopping $45.1M in 2019. Goodness. Last year’s arbitration class ran $29.2525M even when including Adam Warren’s full salary. The Yankees have about $55M in free agents coming off the books this winter. Going from a $29.2525M arbitration class last year to a $45.1M arbitration class this year eats up about $15M of that $55M. Hmmm. Anyway, let’s talk about the arbitration class a bit.

1. What happens with Gregorius? Sir Didi needs Tommy John surgery and I have to think that means the Yankees will not pursue a long-term contract extension, if they were even planning to pursue one in the first place. Don’t you have to wait and see what Gregorius looks like post-surgery before committing? I mean, he’ll probably be fine, but you never really know. It’s a major surgery.

As I mentioned yesterday, I don’t think the Yankees will non-tender Gregorius, but I don’t think it would be as egregious as it may seem. He might not be back until August or September. Is it really smart to commit $12.4M to a guy who may not help you much, if at all, when he’ll become a free agent next winter? That’s a lot of money to give to a guy who is going to spend most of the year rehabbing. The potential reward isn’t all that great.

Perhaps there’s a compromise to be made here? Rather than a one-year contract at the projected arbitration salary, the Yankees and Gregorius could work out a two-year agreement? Something like, say, two years and $25M? Or maybe even $30M? That ensures two things:

  1. The Yankees won’t pay Gregorius a hefty sum during his injury shortened 2019 season only to possibly lose him to free agency next winter.
  2. Gregorius gets a nice little guaranteed payday and will still be able to become a free agent prior to his age 30 season, when he’ll still have good earning potential.

The Gregorius injury is really unfortunate. He’s a great player who proved difficult to replace during his short time on the disabled list this past season. The injury also complicates his contract situation for next year. Maybe the Yankees will fork over that projected $12.4M contract for the season then worry about Didi’s free agency next winter. I guess we’ll find out soon enough.

2. Gray’s salary is higher than I expected. I didn’t expect Gray’s salary projection to come in north of $9M. He made $6.5M this season and was terrible. His past accomplishments (2015 All-Star, third in the 2015 AL Cy Young voting, etc.) are doing the heavy lifting here. No player has ever had his salary cut during arbitration and Sonny sure as heck won’t be the first. I thought maybe he’d get $8M to $8.5M. I underestimated.

Brian Cashman was very open about trading Gray during last week’s end-of-season press conference. I can’t remember him ever being that candid about trading a player. Here’s what Cashman said, via Brendan Kuty:

“I think it’s probably best to try this somewhere else,” Cashman said. “It hasn’t worked out this far. I think he’s extremely talented. I think that we’ll enter the winter unfortunately open minded to a relocation. Probably to maximize his abilities would be more likely best somewhere else. But then it comes down to the final decision of the price in terms of trade acquisition and matching up with somebody, if we match up.”

I don’t think Cashman would’ve said that unless he was confident he could find a trade match for Gray and get something decent in return. The Yankees very clearly want to get rid of him. It doesn’t mean they’ll give him away. Pitching is in demand and hey, if you were another team, wouldn’t you have interest in buying low on Gray? I think there will be enough of a market that the Yankees get something good in return. Not great, but good.

Now, that said, if the Yankees have trouble finding a trade partner for Gray, would they consider non-tendering him? I don’t think so, but it’s not impossible. Worst case scenario is you take Sonny into Spring Training and essentially audition him for teams. Some team is going to suffer an injury and need a starter. That team might be the Yankees! But yeah, Gray’s a goner. His projected salary is higher than expected but I don’t think it’ll be an obstacle during trade talks.

3. Time to talk extension with Betances? Next season is Dellin’s final season of team control. He’ll be a free agent next winter. Historically, players who sign extensions the year before free agency get free agent contracts. There’s no discount. I don’t think Betances would get Wade Davis money (three years, $52M), but Bryan Shaw money (three years, $27M) ain’t cutting it. I could see Dellin’s camp pushing for four years and $44M or so next year.

Betances is an all-time personal fave and he had a tremendous bounceback season this year. He went from completely unusable in the postseason last year to being the team’s No. 1 bullpen weapon this postseason. There were a lot of folks (a lot of folks) who wanted Betances traded last offseason. Fortunately the Yankees kept him. That said, there are some reasons the Yankees should pass on an extension this offseason.

  1. Betances turns 31 in March and his free agent contract begins during his age 32 season. Dellin’s not that young anymore! He’s almost certainly had his best years already.
  2. As we know, Betances is extremely volatile. When he’s good, he’s unhittable. It’s so fun. When he’s bad, he’s unusable. What if it goes bad again in 2019? I hope it doesn’t happen, but it might.
  3. Dellin does have an injury history. He’s been very durable as the big leaguer, so he deserves credit for that, but he has Tommy John surgery in his past and also shoulder issues while in the minors.

As much as I love Betances and hope he gets to record the final out of the World Series for the Yankees one day, I wouldn’t blame the Yankees one bit for not signing him long-term this offseason. Relievers are inherently volatile and Betances is more volatile than most. They have him for another season and that means another year of gathering information. If he’s willing to take a sweetheart deal, then by all means, sign him. Otherwise I think waiting is the right move.

4. Time to talk extension with Hicks? Yes, I think so. Switch-hitting center fielders who provide big value on both sides of the ball are worth keeping. Hicks turned 29 only two weeks ago, so he has several peak years remaining, and I want him to spend those peak years in pinstripes. Both versions of WAR had Hicksie as a top seven outfielder in baseball this season. Dude’s legit.

Hicks will be a free agent next offseason and, as noted earlier, players who sign extensions at this service time level usually get free agent contracts. There’s no more discount. The contract comparables for Hicks are pretty straightforward. He figures to seek Dexter Fowler (five years, $82.5M) and Lorenzo Cain (five years, $80M) money. And you know what? I’d give it to him. That’s the going rate for a comfortably above-average center fielder.

It’s important to note here that a five-year contract would cover Hicks’ age 29-33 seasons. He’s younger now than Fowler (age 31-35) and Cain (age 32-36) were when they signed their deals. Hicks is younger but he also doesn’t have as long a track record, which kinda balances things out. If the Yankees give Hicks a five-year deal this winter, they avoid all those nasty decline years in his mid-to-late 30s, at least in theory. This should be a thing they pursue this winter.

(Getty)

5. Severino’s cheapest years are over. The Baby Bombers are growing up. Severino is arbitration-eligible for the first of four times as a Super Two this season. He has two years and 170 days* of service time, which is well over whatever the Super Two cutoff will be this winter. (It varies year to year and is usually somewhere around two years and 120 days.) Severino’s first big payday has arrived.

* The MLB season runs 186 days but it only takes 172 days to qualify for a full season’s worth of service time. That means, come the 2022-23 offseason, Severino will be *two days* short of qualifying for free agency. Ouch. He spent juuust enough time in Triple-A in 2016 to push his free agency back and I doubt that was a coincidence.

The salary record for a first time arbitration-eligible pitcher belongs to Dallas Keuchel, who received $7.25M for the 2016 season, the year after he won his Cy Young award. Severino doesn’t have a Cy Young but he didn’t finish third in the voting last year, which will boost his earning potential. Within the last three offseasons five starting pitchers went through arbitration for the first time as a Super Two. Their salaries:

  • Kevin Gausman, 2016-17: $3.45M
  • Marcus Stroman, 2016-17: $3.4M
  • Chase Anderson, 2016-17: $2.45M
  • Taijuan Walker, 2016-17: $2.25M
  • Mike Foltynewicz, 2017-18: $2.2M

Severino’s been better than all those dudes and, frankly, it’s not all that close either. His first year salary is considerably higher than theirs, as it should be. Using the $5.1M projection as a starting point, Severino’s salaries during his arbitration years could go something like $5.1M, $10M, $15M, $20M. More high finishes in the Cy Young voting will equal more money.

Should the Yankees sign Severino to an extension this winter? Eh, I don’t see the need to rush into it. The Yankees can of course afford big arbitration salaries and pitchers are known to break down. It sucks, but it happens. We spent a few years here saying the Yankees should sign Chien-Ming Wang long-term, they didn’t, then he broke down. Baseball can be cruel like that. I am totally cool waiting at least one more year before discussing a Severino extension. Free agency is still a ways away.

* * *

Even subtracting out the likely to be traded Gray, the Yankees have a very expensive arbitration class this offseason. Their most expensive in years. That tends to happen when you have a lot of good young players. The Yankees will have to make some big decisions with this year’s arbitration class too. Do they approach Gregorius, Hicks, or Betances about extensions the year before free agency? Or just let the year play out? There’s a case to be made for both approaches.

Yankeemetrics: It is high, it is far, it is … see ya 2018

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I want to thank everyone for being such great followers, fans and readers during this unforgettable record-breaking season. Hope you enjoyed all the smart stats, #FunFacts, Obscure Yankeemetrics and other interesting numbers. Let’s Go Yankees.

(Getty)

It’s Just Not Happ-ening
In the first-ever Division Series matchup between 100-win teams, the 108-win Red Sox took the series opener, 5-4.

It was another frustrating and winnable game for the Yankees, who struck out 13 times and left 10 men on base in the one-run loss. This was the ninth time in franchise history the Yankees lost a nine-inning postseason game by a run while stranding at least 10 baserunners — and the first time ever they also struck out more than 10 times in the game.

J.A. Happ, who had been so brilliant against Boston this season (1.99 ERA in four starts) and during his entire career (2.98 ERA in 21 games), was pounded early and pulled in the third inning without recording an out, getting charged with five runs on four hits. He is the first Yankee starter in the postseason to allow at least five runs and while pitching no more than two innings since A.J. Burnett in Game 5 of the 2009 World Series against the Phillies. Before Happ, no other pitcher in franchise history had done that in the opening game of a playoff series.

The Yankee chipped away at their early 5-0 deficit but their rally fell just short as Aaron Judge’s solo homer to lead off the ninth inning was followed by three straight strikeouts to end the game. The home run was a significant one for Judge, his sixth in 15 career postseason games. The only Yankee to hit more dingers in their first 15 playoff games was Bernie Williams (7).

Giancarlo Stanton was part of the strikeout parade in the ninth inning, and finished with four whiffs in the game. A Stantonian #NotFunFact to chew on: He is the only cleanup hitter in franchise history to strike out four or more times in a postseason game.

(AP)

The Kracken Erupts
The Yankees rebounded from Game 1’s bitter loss with a fired-up, fist-pumping win on Saturday night to even the series at 1-1.

They probably couldn’t have been in a better situational spot to steal a game at Fenway, facing David Price, a perennial Yankees punching bag with a historically terrible postseason resume. And both those narratives played out perfectly for the Yankees. Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez both crushed home runs while Andrew McCutchen chipped in with a booming RBI single, before Price got the hook and was booed off the mound in the second inning. The final damage for Mr. Price: 1 2/3 innings, 3 runs, 3 hits, 2 homers, 2 walks, 0 strikeouts.

Price has now made 10 starts in the postseason and his team has lost all 10 of them. That is the longest postseason streak of team games lost in a player’s starts in MLB history.

Okay, back to the Bombers. Judge’s first-inning solo homer was his third in three games this postseason. He is the second Yankee to go deep in each of the team’s first three games to start a postseason, along with Hank Bauer in the 1958 World Series. And he also joined Bernie Williams (2001, 1996), Reggie Jackson (1977) and Bauer as the only Yankee outfielders to homer in three postseason games in a row.

(New York Times)

Sanchez’s dinger off Price was probably the least shocking part of Saturday’s game. His brief history against the lefty speaks for itself:

  • 18 plate appearances
  • 7 hits
  • 6 home runs
  • 4 walks

But Price wasn’t the only Red Sox pitcher that got schooled by Sanchez on Saturday. He pulverized an Eduardo Rodriguez fastball literally out of the ballpark. With a projected distance of 479 feet, it is the longest hit at Fenway since Statcast tracking began in 2015 and the second-longest hit in the postseason at any park over the last four years.

With his two homers, he entered into some purdy good company. He and Yogi Berra (1956 World Series Game 7) are the only Yankee catchers with a multi-homer game in the playoffs. And, at the age of 25 years and 308 days, he is the youngest catcher to homer twice in a game in MLB postseason history.

Masahiro Tanaka bounced back from a couple bad starts to the end the season with another postseason gem, giving up one run — via the #obligatoryhomer — in five innings. He now owns a 1.50 playoff ERA, the fifth-lowest by any pitcher with at least five playoff starts.

Lowest Postseason ERA (min. 5 Starts)
ERA Games
Sandy Koufax 0.95 8
Christy Mathewson 0.97 11
Eddie Plank 1.32 7
Bill Hallahan 1.36 7
Masahiro Tanaka 1.50 5

Nightmare on River Avenue
There really are no words that can capture the utter humiliation, indescribable embarrassment and overwhelming atrocity that was Game 3 in the Bronx on Monday night. Mike did an excellent job summing up the terrible managerial mistakes from the 16-1 loss, I’ll just present here the cold hard ugly facts.

  • 15-run loss is the largest margin of defeat in postseason game in franchise history
  • It is also the most lopsided loss for any team in a postseason game at home
  • 16 runs allowed are the most ever by a Yankee team in a postseason game
  • 16 runs allowed are the most ever in postseason game for any team that gave up no more than one homer
  • Austin Romine is first catcher in MLB history to pitch in a postseason game; the only other position player to do it was Blue Jays infielder Cliff Pennington in the 2015 ALCS Game 5 against the Royals
  • Summing up the pitching mess … Yankees are first team in Major-League history to give up at least 16 runs, 18 hits and eight walks in a postseason game

And mercifully, we close this section with our #NotFunFact of the series, awarded to Luis Severino:

End of the Chase For 28
It’s a game of inches, and the Yankees were just a few short in Tuesday night’s 4-3 loss. Folks, I hope you’re sitting down for this series-ending Obscure Yankeemetric … It was the 14th time the Yankees have been eliminated from the postseason at home, but the first time it happened in a one-run game at the Stadium with the winning run on base when the game ended. Welp.

(Newsday)

For the second straight night, Yankees found themselves in early hole, after CC Sabathia allowed three runs in the first three innings, a rare mediocre outing for him given his postseason track record in the Bronx. This was his eighth playoff start at home as a Yankee, and the first one that he gave up more than two runs. His 1.61 ERA in his previous seven home postseason starts was the second-best by any Yankee (min. 4 starts).

Zach Britton coughed up the fourth run via a 338-foot homer by Christian Vazquez that barely cleared the short porch in right field. It was the first homer Britton has allowed to a No. 9 batter in his career. And, according to ESPN’s home run tracking system, it would not have been a home run at any of the other 29 ballparks. A true ‘Yankee Stadium Special’, served up at the worst possible moment:

In a season where #toomanyhomers was a nightly trend on Yankees twitter, the team failed to go deep in the fateful final two games. The only other time this season the Bombers were homerless in back-to-back games in the Bronx was April 7 and 8 against the Orioles, the fifth and sixth home games of the season. That’s baseball, Suzyn.

Yankees and Red Sox announce 2018 ALDS rosters

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(Getty)

This morning was the deadline for the Yankees and Red Sox to submit their 25-man ALDS rosters to MLB, and, shortly thereafter, the two clubs announced them officially. Yesterday Aaron Boone more or less confirmed the entire roster and it is as expected. No surprises.

Here is each team’s 25-man active roster for the ALDS, which begins later tonight:

NEW YORK YANKEES

Pitchers (12)
RHP Dellin Betances
LHP Zach Britton
LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Chad Green
LHP J.A. Happ (Game 1 starter)
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Lance Lynn
RHP David Robertson
LHP CC Sabathia
RHP Luis Severino
RHP Masahiro Tanaka (Game 2 starter)
LHP Stephen Tarpley

Catchers (2)
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

Infielders (6)
Miguel Andujar
Didi Gregorius
Adeiny Hechavarria
Gleyber Torres
Luke Voit
Neil Walker

Outfielders (5)
Brett Gardner
Aaron Hicks
Aaron Judge
Andrew McCutchen
Giancarlo Stanton

BOSTON RED SOX

Pitchers (11)
RHP Matt Barnes
RHP Ryan Brasier
RHP Nathan Eovaldi (Game 4 starter)
RHP Joe Kelly
RHP Craig Kimbrel
RHP Rick Porcello (Game 3 starter)
LHP David Price (Game 2 starter)
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
LHP Chris Sale (Game 1 starter)
RHP Brandon Workman
RHP Steven Wright

Catchers (3)
Sandy Leon
Blake Swihart (UTIL)
Christian Vazquez

Infielders (7)
Xander Bogaerts
Rafael Devers
Brock Holt (IF/OF)
Ian Kinsler
Mitch Moreland
Eduardo Nunez
Steve Pearce (1B/OF)

Outfielders (4)
Andrew Benintendi
Mookie Betts
Jackie Bradley Jr.
J.D. Martinez

The Yankees dropped Kyle Higashioka and Tyler Wade from their Wild Card Game roster and added Sabathia and Tarpley. They’re carrying four starters, eight relievers, and a four-man bench. Normally, eight relievers in a postseason series is overkill, especially since they’re not going to play more than two days in a row. Yanks vs. Sox games tend to get wild though. The extra reliever could come in handy.

The five-man bench: Gardner, Hechavarria, Romine, and Walker. It’s worth noting Gardner (left field), Hechavarria (third base), and Walker (first base) all came in for defense in the late innings of the Wild Card Game. I wonder if that will continue to be the case going forward. I guess it depends on the score. The Yankees might hold Gardner back for a pinch-running situation in a close game. We’ll see.

Middle relief has been a season-long problem for the Red Sox and they’re going to try to patch that up with Rodriguez this postseason. Also, Eovaldi was told to prepare to pitch in relief in Game One. Wright is a starter by trade as well. Red Sox manager Alex Cora was the Astros bench coach last year, when they expertly used starters like Lance McCullers, Brad Peacock, and Charlie Morton in relief in the postseason. I suspect he’ll look to do the same with the Red Sox this year.

ALDS Game One begins tonight at 7:30pm ET. As expected, the Yankees and Red Sox games drew the primetime slots. All five ALDS games will begin somewhere between 7:30pm ET and 8:10pm ET. The entire series will be broadcast on TBS.

Yankees, Athletics announce 2018 Wild Card Game rosters

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(Presswire)

Earlier this morning both the Yankees and Athletics announced their 25-man active rosters for tonight’s AL Wild Card Game. We were able to piece together the Yankees’ roster based on information from yesterday’s workout. The roster is as expected. No surprises.

Here are the two 25-man rosters for tonight’s winner-take-all game. Turns out I did a pretty good job projecting it last week:

NEW YORK YANKEES

Pitchers (10)
RHP Dellin Betances
LHP Zach Britton
LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Chad Green
LHP J.A. Happ
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Lance Lynn
RHP David Robertson
RHP Luis Severino
RHP Masahiro Tanaka

Catchers (3)
Kyle Higashioka
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

Infielders (7)
Miguel Andujar
Didi Gregorius
Adeiny Hechavarria
Gleyber Torres
Luke Voit
Tyler Wade
Neil Walker

Outfielders (5)
Brett Gardner
Aaron Hicks
Aaron Judge
Andrew McCutchen
Giancarlo Stanton

OAKLAND ATHLETICS

Pitchers (11)
LHP Ryan Buchter
RHP Jeurys Familia
RHP Liam Hendriks
RHP Edwin Jackson
RHP Shawn Kelley
RHP Emilio Pagan
RHP Yusmeiro Petit
RHP Fernando Rodney
RHP Blake Treinen
RHP Lou Trivino
RHP J.B. Wendelken

Catchers (2)
Jonathan Lucroy
Josh Phegley

Infielders (6)
Franklin Barreto
Matt Chapman
Jed Lowrie
Matt Olson
Chad Pinder (IF/OF)
Marcus Semien

Outfielders (6)
Mark Canha (1B/OF)
Khris Davis
Matt Joyce
Ramon Laureano
Nick Martini
Stephen Piscotty

Notably absent: Greg Bird, CC Sabathia, and Stephen Tarpley. Sabathia being excluded from the roster isn’t a surprise. At this point, he’s not one of the ten best pitchers on the staff, especially when you consider he’d have to pitch in an unfamiliar relief role. Tarpley was said to be in the mix for a bullpen spot. Ultimately, the A’s only have one hitter (Olson) who needs a left-on-left specialist, and he’d be pinch-hit for instantly by Canha, a lefty crusher. Tarpley didn’t have much of a purpose.

As for Bird, I am a bit surprised he’s not on the Wild Card Game roster only because the Yankees love him. That said, he hasn’t hit at all this season, and he offers no defensive versatility or baserunning value. His only role would be as a pinch-hitting option who could maybe park one in the short porch, and who’s getting lifted for a pinch-hitter? No one in the starting lineup. The Yankees opted for Wade (pinch-runner) and Hechavarria (Andujar’s defensive caddy) over Bird. Can’t blame them.

The Athletics are really going all in on the bullpen game, huh? Jackson is the only actual starting pitcher on the roster and I assume he is their emergency extra innings guy. Their bench is sneaky good. Canha crushes lefties and Joyce is a fine lefty platoon bat who could take aim at the right field porch. Pinder, a right-handed hitter, hit 13 homers with a 111 wRC+ as a part-timer this year, and he played every position other than pitcher and catcher. A’s manager Bob Melvin could get creative with his bench.

Severino and Hendriks (an opener) are starting the Wild Card Game tonight. The game is scheduled to begin a little after 8pm ET and it’ll be broadcast on TBS. Winner moves on to play the Red Sox in the ALDS. Loser goes home.

Building the 2018 Wild Card Game roster

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(Mike Stobe/Getty)

With four days to go in the 2018 regular season, we know one thing for certain: The Yankees will play the Athletics in the 2018 AL Wild Card Game next Wednesday. The game will likely be played in Yankee Stadium, though that is not set in stone yet. The magic number for homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game is two. The Yankees-Athletics matchup is set though.

The Wild Card Game is its own postseason round. The Yankees and A’s will set a 25-man roster for the Wild Card Game, then whichever team advances will be able to set a new 25-man roster for the ALDS. Because of that, we’ve seen some funky wildcard rosters in recent years. The Yankees carried only nine pitchers on their 2015 Wild Card Game roster. Last year they carried ten. That means a great big bench.

So, with the Wild Card Game now only six days away, this is as good a time as any to try to piece together the 25-man roster the Yankees will carry next Wednesday. It’s a bummer the Yankees are going to finish with 100-ish wins and have to play in a winner-take-all Wild Card Game, but hey, if you don’t like it, win more games. Let’s dig into the potential Wild Card Game roster.

The Locks

Might as well start here. The way I see it, the Yankees have 17 players who are absolute locks for the Wild Card Game roster right now. The 17:

  • Catchers (2): Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez
  • Infielders (5): Miguel Andujar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, Neil Walker
  • Outfielders (4): Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton
  • Pitchers (6): Dellin Betances, Zach Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Jonathan Holder, David Robertson

I was initially on the fence about Hechavarria, but the more I thought about it, the more I realized he’s going to make the Wild Card Game roster. Worst case scenario is he serves as Andujar’s defensive replacement. The rest is pretty straightforward though, right? Right. We still have eight roster spots to fill, so let’s get to it.

Locks, If Healthy

Didi Gregorius is out with torn cartilage in his right wrist and he could play in games before the end of the season. He got the okay to resume baseball activities yesterday, so that’s good. If he’s able to play this weekend and has no problems, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster. If not, it opens up the possibility for Ronald Torreyes to make the roster. The Gregorius/Torreyes spot is our 18th player.

Aaron Hicks, meanwhile, has a tight left hamstring and is day-to-day. He too could play before the regular season ends, and, if that happens, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster as well. If Hicks can’t play in the Wild Card Game, I think Tyler Wade makes it instead. Wade can play the outfield, if necessary, but more importantly he can run. No Hicks on the roster means Gardner is in center field rather than on the bench as a pinch-running option. With Hicks out, Wade becomes the pinch-runner. The Hicks/Wade spot is our 19th player.

The Starting Pitcher(s)

We still don’t know who will start the Wild Card Game. Aaron Boone has indicated the decision could come soon and he’s made it pretty clear it’ll be either J.A. Happ, Luis Severino, or Masahiro Tanaka. The Yankees aren’t going to do a straight bullpen game. Two weeks ago RAB readers wanted Tanaka to start the Wild Card Game. I think the Yankees want it to be Severino. Happ is a perfectly fine candidate as well.

At the moment Happ is lined up to start the Wild Card Game on normal rest and Tanaka with two extra days of rest. Severino would be on three extra days of rest, though he could wind up starting Game 162 should the Yankees need to win that game to clinch homefield advantage. Hopefully it doesn’t come down to that. Based on the way things are set up now, all three guys will be available to start the Wild Card Game. That’s not an accident. The Yankees made sure they had options.

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Instead of focusing on names, let’s focus on roster spots. The Yankees carried three starting pitchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Tanaka, Ivan Nova) and three starting pitchers on the 2017 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Sonny Gray, CC Sabathia). I expect them to carry three starting pitchers again this year. That gives the Yankees:

  • The starting pitcher.
  • An emergency guy for extra innings.
  • An emergency emergency guy in case there’s an injury or things really go haywire.

It is entirely possible Happ, Severino, and Tanaka will all be on the Wild Card Game roster even though only one guy is starting the game. Or it’s possible Happ and Severino are on the roster with Lance Lynn, who has bullpen experience, replacing Tanaka. I don’t think the Yankees would carry Sabathia as a reliever at this point, but it can’t be ruled out. Gray? Eh. Seems like a worst case scenario.

I suspect that, unless he has to start Game 162 on Sunday, Severino will be on the Wild Card Game roster. Even if he doesn’t start the Wild Card Game, he could be another bullpen option. Heck, he might be on the roster even if he starts Game 162. The Wild Card Game would be Severino’s throw day and he could give you an inning or two out of the bullpen. Yeah, one way or the other, I think Severino’s on the roster. He’s our 20th player.

My hunch is both Happ and Tanaka will be on the roster as well. I was thinking maybe the Yankees would carry Lynn instead of one of those two because he has bullpen experience, but I keep going back to Brian Cashman saying it is “all hands on deck for that one game,” and Happ and Tanaka are objectively better than Lynn. The bullpen experience is nice. I don’t think it trumps effectiveness. Happ and Tanaka are the 21st and 22nd players (and eighth and ninth pitchers) on our roster.

The Last Bullpen Spot

Whoever starts the Wild Card Game, that guy will be on a very short leash. It could devolve into a bullpen game rather quickly. For both teams. Because of that, I think the Yankees will carry ten pitchers on the Wild Card Game roster like last season, rather than nine like in 2015. I wouldn’t rule out an 11th pitcher, honestly. I’m going to stick with ten though. That seems like plenty for a one-game scenario.

With Happ, Severino, and Tanaka joining the six late-game relievers, we are left with eleven candidates for the final pitching spot: Gray, Lynn, Sabathia, Chance Adams, Luis Cessa, A.J. Cole, Domingo German, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga, Justus Sheffield, and Stephen Tarpley. I think we can rule out Adams, German, Loaisiga, and Sheffield right now. They would’ve gotten a longer look this month if they were Wild Card Game candidates.

Tarpley has gotten some run lately as a left-on-left guy and the other night Boone told Erik Boland that Tarpley has put himself “in the conversation” for the Wild Card Game roster. Since his ugly big league debut, Tarpley has thrown 5.2 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts, and lefties are 1-for-11 (.091) with five strikeouts against him. In the minors this year Tarpley held left-handed batters to a .141/.213/.183 line with a 29.4% strikeout rate. Really good!

There is one reason to carry Tarpley on the Wild Card Game roster: Matt Olson. Oakland’s lefty swinging first baseman went into last night’s game hitting .247/.338/.496 (128 wRC+) against righties and .251/.329/.369 (96 wRC+) against lefties. He’s someone you can LOOGY. That said, if you bring in a lefty for Olson, A’s manager Bob Melvin will counter with righty swinging Mark Canha, who’s hitting .274/.331/.596 (148 wRC+) against southpaws. Melvin’s been doing it all year.

In a high-leverage situation — is there such a thing as a low-leverage situation in a game as important as the Wild Card Game? — I’d rather have one of the regular late-inning relievers facing Olson than Tarpley facing Canha. All the late-inning guys have good numbers against lefties. I have a hard time envisioning a scenario in which Tarpley faces Olson/Canha in the middle (or late) innings rather than one of the usual late-inning guys. Worrying about the platoon matchup there seems like paralysis by analysis. Overthinking it.

I’m tossing Tarpley into the maybe pile right now. A good series against Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, and Rafael Devers this weekend would really help his cause. For our purposes, we’re down to Cessa, Cole, Gray, Kahnle, Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley for the final bullpen spot. Hard pass on Gray and Cole. They’ve pitched too poorly for too long. Can’t see it being Cessa either. Kahnle was excellent in the Wild Card Game (and postseason) last year …

… but that was 2017 Tommy Kahnle. 2018 Kahnle is not 2017 Kahnle. 2017 Kahnle would be on the Wild Card Game roster no questions asked. 2018 Tommy Kahnle? Nah. So we’re left with Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley. So maybe it will be Tarpley? Either way, we’re talking about the last guy in the bullpen, someone who won’t pitch in the Wild Card Game unless things go really crazy. I’d take Lynn. Tarpley has a shot. Whoever it is, this is our tenth pitcher and 23rd player on the roster.

The Rest of the Bench

A ten-man pitching staff means a six-man bench. Romine gets one bench spot. (No, Romine shouldn’t start the Wild Card Game.) Another spot goes to Wade (Hicks out) or Gardner (Hicks in). If Gregorius plays, both Hechavarria and Walker are on the bench. If Gregorius does not play, either Hechavarria or Walker is in the starting lineup and the other is on the bench. Depending on Didi, either three or four bench spots are already claimed. There are four candidates for the remaining bench spots. The four and their potential roles:

  • Greg Bird: Lefty bench bat
  • Kyle Higashioka: Third catcher
  • Ronald Torreyes (if Gregorius is in): Utility infielder
  • Tyler Wade (if Hicks is in): Utility guy and speedster

The big name bench candidate is Bird. We know Voit is starting at first base in the Wild Card Game, even against a right-handed pitcher. He’s been too good and Bird’s been too bad. The question is this: What would Bird provide the Yankees? A backup first baseman and a lefty bench bat who could take aim at the short porch? Sure. But Walker could do that too, and Bird offers zero defensive versatility.

Then again, if Gregorius is unable to play in the Wild Card Game, Walker would presumably start at second base — it would be either Gleyber at short and Walker at second, or Hechavarria at short and Gleyber at second — thus leaving the Yankees without a backup first baseman/lefty bat on the bench. Given his performance, leaving Bird off the Wild Card Game roster would be completely justifiable. I still think he’ll be on. The Yankees love him and they have the spare bench spots. I hereby declare Bird our 24th player.

Don’t dismiss Higashioka as a Wild Card Game roster candidate. His presence would allow the Yankees to pinch-run for Sanchez without worrying about Romine potentially getting hurt. Or they could pinch-hit for Sanchez in a big spot. I wouldn’t do it and I don’t think the Yankees would, but it would be an option. The Yankees only had two catchers on the roster last year because Sanchez was the man and he wasn’t coming out of the game. They did carry three catchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster though (Sanchez, Brian McCann, John Ryan Murphy).

Right now we have a 24-man roster that includes either Gregorius or Torreyes, and either Hicks or Wade. This is starting to get confusing. Let’s recap everything. This is how I think the bench and 25-man Wild Card Game roster shakes out:

Catchers Infielders Outfielders Starters Relievers
Sanchez Andujar Gardner Happ Betances
Romine Bird Judge Severino Britton
Hechavarria McCutchen Tanaka Chapman
Torres Stanton Green
Voit Hicks/Wade Holder
Walker Robertson
Didi/Toe Lynn/Tarpley

Those are 24 roster spots. Ten pitchers and 14 position players. The Gregorius and Hicks injuries are the x-factors. There are three scenarios here with regards to the 25th roster spot:

  • Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt: Torreyes and Wade both make it, and the Yankees carry either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher.
  • Only one of Gregorius or Hicks is healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, Torreyes and Wade both make it.
  • Gregorius and Hicks are both healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, only one of Torreyes or Wade makes it.

If both Gregorius and Hicks are healthy — and we all hope that is the case — I think Wade makes the Wild Card Game roster over Torreyes because he’s more versatile and his speed could really come in handy in a late-inning pinch-running situation. If both Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt, the Yankees are kinda stuck. It’s either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher at that point.

The position player side of the Wild Card Game roster is going to depend on the health of Gregorius and Hicks. On the pitching side, the Yankees can pick and choose who they want. We know the six end-game relievers will be there. The Yankees are likely to carry three starters, no matter who they end up being. Do they carry Tarpley? That might be the most interesting Wild Card Game roster question.