River Avenue Blues

  • About
    • Privacy Policy
  • Features
    • Yankees Top 30 Prospects
    • Prospect Profiles
    • Fan Confidence
  • Resources
    • 2019 Draft Order
    • Depth Chart
    • Bullpen Workload
    • Guide to Stats
  • Shop and Tickets
    • RAB Tickets
    • MLB Shop
    • Fanatics
    • Amazon
    • Steiner Sports Memorabilia
River Ave. Blues » Evan Longoria

Hot Stove Notes: Fulmer, Archer, Ellsbury, Longoria

December 26, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

(Elsa/Getty)
(Elsa/Getty)

The hot stove has slowed to a crawl during the holidays, as it always does. Things will pick up after New Years. It has to, right? So many top free agents remain unsigned, and there are some big name trade chips still waiting to be had. Anyway, here are some bits of news and notes to check out.

Yankees made offers for Fulmer, Archer

According to Bill Brink, the Yankees made trade offers for Michael Fulmer and Chris Archer, which were rejected by the Tigers and Rays, respectively. The offers are said to be on par with what the Yankees are offering the Pirates for Gerrit Cole, so I guess that means Clint Frazier plus other stuff? Both Fulmer (five years) and Archer (four years) come with more control than Cole (two years).

I wonder how seriously the Yankees pursued Fulmer and Archer, both of whom I prefer to Cole. Were they cursory “here’s an offer what do you think?” offers, or were there counteroffers and continued negotiations? I guess it’s possible the Tigers are holding out for Gleyber Torres given Fulmer’s five years of control, and an intradivision trade with the Rays may be too complicated, so any talks with those teams could have ended quickly.

Yankees tried to engage Giants on Ellsbury

The Yankees recently tried to engage the Giants on Jacoby Ellsbury, reports Jon Heyman. San Francisco is looking at other (i.e. better) outfield options first. They’ve been linked to Jay Bruce a bunch in recent weeks. We recently heard Ellsbury might be willing to waive his no-trade clause for select teams, including possibly the Giants. Supposedly Ellsbury wants to stay with the Yankees, but who knows.

I get the sense that, if an Ellsbury trade does go down, it won’t happen until late in the offseason, after free agents like Lorenzo Cain, Carlos Gomez, Jon Jay, Jarrod Dyson, and Austin Jackson sign. Any teams that miss out on those guys could then shift focus to Ellsbury and see how much the Yankees are willing to eat. The problem with an Ellsbury trade taking place late in the offseason is the Yankees won’t know whether they’ll have any extra money to spend under the luxury tax threshold. They have to plan as if Ellsbury will be on the roster in 2018.

Yankees had interest in Longoria

According to Marc Topkin, the Yankees were one of many teams with interest in Evan Longoria before he was traded to the Giants. It’s unclear whether the two sides actually talked about a trade at some point. Longoria is owed $86M from 2018-22, though he would only count as $11.1653M against the luxury tax payroll given the timing of the two team friendly extensions he signed way back when.

I know the Yankees have an opening at third base, but I have to say, I would not have liked a Longoria pickup at all. He just turned 32 and he hit .261/.313/.424 (96 wRC+) in 2017. He’s hit .265/.325/.457 (113 wRC+) in over 3,400 plate appearances dating back to Opening Day 2013. Longoria’s best years are behind him. The Yankees don’t need to trade prospects and take on salary for a guy like that. What are the odds Miguel Andujar outproduces Longoria from 2018-22? Better than I think most people realize And I’m talking on the field only. Once you factor in salary, forget it.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: Chris Archer, Detroit Tigers, Evan Longoria, Jacoby Ellsbury, Michael Fulmer, San Francisco Giants, Tampa Bay Rays

The AL East’s losses are the 2018 Yankees’ gain

December 22, 2017 by Steven Tydings Leave a Comment

(Elsa/Getty Images)
(Elsa/Getty Images)

How peculiar is it to think of Evan Longoria outside of the American League East?

The now-former Rays third baseman was a fixture at the hot corner in AL East games for the last decade, providing Tampa Bay the small glimmer of hope that maybe, just maybe, they could unseat the Yankees and Red Sox. While his reputation as a Yankees’ killer has been blown out of proportion — Dis .846 OPS vs. NYY is his worst against an AL East team — he tormented Mariano Rivera and CC Sabathia often and was the one player up until the last few years that you truly feared in a thin Rays lineup. He seems like a pleasant enough person, but watching your team pitch to him 19 games a year was anything but pleasant.

However, Longoria was on the decline and despite having an incredibly affordable deal for a former star, it made sense for Tampa Bay to move him. In the long term, the Rays will either benefit from the prospects they bring aboard and/or from the financial wiggle room losing his contract provides.

In the short term, the Longoria trade doesn’t handicap the Rays yet, but it signals a likely rebuild for Tampa Bay with more trades on the way, something that benefits the Yankees in the short term. Getting Chris Archer out of the division, particularly with his horrid numbers against Boston, is certainly in New York’s best interest.

And it’s not just the Rays. The Orioles have very little reason to go all out this season and are considering dealing Manny Machado. They’re a team with 1-2 quality starters and replacement level fillers in the rotation otherwise, not to mention their lack of a closer at the moment. Their lineup is fine but doesn’t move the needle when compared to the Yankees and Red Sox.

So before you even factor in the Giancarlo Stanton deal, the Yankees were set to improve this season simply from seeing the teams around them fall back.

Granted, perhaps the Rays and Orioles don’t consider trading their star third basemen without Stanton adding to the behemoth in the Bronx. But it stands to reason that they saw the Yankees and Sox as tough barriers to bypass in the near future regardless of the moves this offseason.

Even with the Jays and Sox looking to improve, steps back from Baltimore and Tampa could give the Yankees a boost in the regular season. They went 24-14 against the two while Boston went 20-18.

Sure, the Red Sox have more potential to benefit, but there could be enough extra wins to go around. Last year’s East was the best division in the AL, perhaps in the entire league, so the bottom teams taking a step back could lead to better records up top. Furthermore, the AL West will be slightly more crowded with the Angels’ acquisitions, though the Indians should still benefit from the decidedly bad teams that populate the Central.

A full season of Sonny? Sign me up! (Corey Perrine/Getty)
A full season of Sonny? Sign me up! (Corey Perrine/Getty)

Beyond simply having two direct competitors nosedive, the Yankees are well-positioned to start well in 2018 compared to 2017, a year when they were 30-20 after two months. Already, they have a better top five in the rotation with Sonny Gray replacing Michael Pineda. Stanton will take at-bats that went to Matt Holliday while Greg Bird shouldn’t start nearly as poorly.

And the bullpen should be a better setup as well. They’ll have Tommy Kahnle and David Robertson taking innings than belonged to Tyler Clippard and Jonathan Holder. Furthermore, Chad Green can move into Adam Warren’s role while Warren takes innings that went to Bryan Mitchell, among other shuttle relievers. There will be no more Tommy Layne experiment.

Part of what held the Yankees nine games shy of their Pythagorean record was their inability to capitalize on leads and their 18-26 record in one-run games. That shouldn’t plague them as much with a better bullpen on paper and a lineup that could produce enough runs to keep the Yankees out of late-and-close situations. Things will go wrong in 2018, but the team has the infrastructure in place to avoid the mid-season pitfalls of a year ago.

The scary thing for competitors is that the offseason is far from over. The Red Sox seem poised to add J.D. Martinez, but the Yankees could still add a starter and maybe even another infielder without subtracting from their major-league roster. Still, even without another move this winter, the Yankees look better than the 91-win regular season squad from just a few months ago.

Filed Under: Other Teams Tagged With: Baltimore Orioles, Evan Longoria, Manny Machado, Tampa Bay Rays

RAB Thoughts on Patreon

Mike is running weekly thoughts-style posts at our "RAB Thoughts" Patreon. $3 per month gets you weekly Yankees analysis. Become a Patron!

Got A Question For The Mailbag?

Email us at RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com. The mailbag is posted Friday mornings.

RAB Features

  • 2019 Season Preview series
  • 2019 Top 30 Prospects
  • 'What If' series with OOTP
  • Yankees depth chart

Search RAB

Copyright © 2025 · River Avenue Blues