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Spring training results that we shouldn’t read into

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Cessa. (Presswire)

Earlier this week, I touched on a few players’ spring training performances that have me optimistic. Maybe taking meaning from their camp statistics will make me look dumb over the next few months. Probably, in fact. Today, let’s actually follow conventional wisdom: Grapefruit League numbers are meaningless. Our expectations of the following players shouldn’t be altered because of what they’ve done down in Florida.

Bursting Luis Cessa’s bubble

When Luis Severino and CC Sabathia went down, it seemed inevitable that Luis Cessa would nab a spot in the rotation. He was nothing short of fantastic this spring. Yet, after he posted a microscopic 0.98 ERA in a hair more than 18 innings, the righty was relegated to the bullpen. He probably will get a handful of starts this season anyway, but the fact that his performance didn’t earn him a chance every fifth day speaks volumes.

It’s nice that he pitched well, but that doesn’t erase his lifetime 4.71 ERA and 5.03 FIP. He’s seen his fair share of major league time over the last few seasons, and now that he’ll be 27 next month, it doesn’t look like he has any upside. Been there, done that. It’s time for Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga prove their worth. Or, go to Gio Gonzalez as an experienced veteran.

J.A. Happ will be fine

The Yankees re-signed J.A. Happ to solidify the rotation, and just over 11 poor Grapefruit League frames shouldn’t cause much concern. The southpaw was prone to the long ball in camp and surrendered six dingers, which ballooned his ERA to 7.94. His regular season ERA will probably be half that. ZiPS, PECOTA, and Steamer all have him right around 4.00.

There are legitimate reasons to worry about Happ, though. Pitchers in their mid-to-late thirties decline, and the 36 year-old Happ is no exception. He’s going to get worse while under contract with the Yankees barring a Sabathia-like resurgence. That being said, cherry picking his spring performance does not make him toast.

Tyler Wade still has something to prove

After he posted an .845 OPS this spring, Wade’s frustration about not making the team is understandable. He had a spot on the 25-man roster until the Yankees made a trade in the 11th hour for Mike Tauchman. Clearly, the Yankees are looking for a bench that isn’t full of light hitters. Pairing Wade with Austin Romine makes for a pretty weak bench, and even though Tauchman hasn’t hit much in the big leagues yet, he’s the type of player the Yankees covet.

Wade has a disappointing major league track record. He’s posted a 23 wRC+ in 133 big league plate appearances, which doesn’t cut it no matter how much versatility he offers. No amount of production in spring training can erase that. With DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres having the ability to cover multiple infield positions and Tauchman able to span all three outfield spots, Wade became the odd man out despite his best effort.

Think twice about falling for Brett Gardner again

A .394/.450/.697 triple-lash will open anyone’s eyes in spring training. That was what Gardner did, but we’ve seen this before. He’s a notorious hot starter who wears down in the second half. He has a career 112/89 wRC+ split between the two halves of the season.

I’d undoubtedly sign up for a torrid start again this year, especially with the array of injuries the team is dealing with. But, it wouldn’t surprise me if he can’t do it again. At some point, his second half swoons are going to carry over into the start following season, and 2019 could be that year. He authored a putrid 66 wRC+ to close last season and lost his job to Andrew McCutchen, to boot. Clint Frazer is gunning for his role this year. It would be fun to see Gardner have one last gasp, but I’m not changing my opinion based on what he did over the last month. I was basically ready to move on in the offseason. Now, the Yankees have no choice but to start him.

Various others

The players mentioned above are the ones I found most compelling to discuss. There are other standouts and poor performers whose results mean next to nothing, but it’s not worth a couple of paragraphs. No, I’m not worried about Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu, or Adam Ottavino. I don’t think Nestor Cortes, David Hale, or Gio Urshela are hidden gems. I think that’s a little too obvious.

Thoughts on a Rainy Sunday

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(Presswire)

Good Sunday morning, readers. If you’re in the tri-state area, I hope you’re staying dry today and warm tomorrow. Today, I’ll offer a few random thoughts on the Yankees as we sit a little less than a month away from pitchers and catchers reporting.

Clint’s Comeback

This is one of the best Yankee-related tweets of the offseason. I know I’m not alone in this, but I’m incredibly excited for the return of Clint Frazier. He had just about the worst year a player can have last year and seeing him get back into the swing of things is more than enough to bring a smile to my face. Red Thunder The Panther will likely have to start out the year in the minors, but it’s not hard to see him taking over for Brett Gardner as Mike alluded to in the Friday mailbag. While Frazier shouldn’t stand in the way of signing him, one positive thing about the Yankees not signing Bryce Harper is that it keeps Frazier’s future within the organization. I’ve long been a big believer in him and his talent and, if healthy, I think he can establish himself as a big league player this year. Good luck in 2019, Clint. We’re rooting for you.

Playoff Pitching Prowess

Bobby is completely right when he says that the Yankees have one of the best rotations in baseball going into 2019. I’ve harped on this before, but the talent in the Yankee rotation is almost astounding. At peak levels, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, and James Paxton are aces. J.A. Happ and CC Sabathia as back end starters are great–an experienced, proven lefty and a borderline Hall of Famer? Hard to beat that. Paired with an elite bullpen, the Yankees’ pitching staff could make noise in the playoffs. There’s just one catch: they need to win the division to do that.

The Yankees are a damn good team and will likely win well north of 90 games, but will it be enough? They haven’t won a division title since 2012 and have played in three of the last four wild card games. Despite similar talent in the rotation at times, they’ve been unable to use it properly in a series because of that one game playoff.

If the Yankees manage to beat out Boston for the division title this year, they’ll finally be able to set their rotation the way they want and not have to worry about a gassed bullpen heading into the start of the ALDS. A top three of Severino, Tanaka, and Paxton is more than formidable in any series, especially a short one, and throwing Happ and/or Sabathia as long men out of the bullpen can help, too. Winning the division is much easier said than done, but it’s something the Yankees need to do to fully exploit the pitching talent they have.

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

The Andujar Endgame 

At this point, it seems clear that the Yankees are hitching their third base wagon to Miguel Andujar. For good reason, they clearly believe in his bat. They also likely think that he can improve on defense or that they can mitigate his poor fielding through substitutions and lineup shuffling. But given how they treated him in the field in the playoffs, how long can we really buy that? Playing a significant amount of time at DH or a new position like first would probably cut down on the value Andujar has as a third baseman, even a bad one. On the other hand, his bad defense does the same thing the more he spends time at third.  And, with that aforementioned treatment in mind, are we sure that Andujar is most valuable to the Yankees as a third baseman or as a potential trade piece?

Obviously, anything can happen at any time and the Yankees could sign Manny Machado and deal Andujar at a moment’s notice, but I’m not holding my breath for that one. Hell, I’m not even waiting for it, and I’m barely bothering to hope for it.

One More Time

Despite what I said in the last bit, there’s still a part of me in disbelief that neither one of Machado or Bryce Harper isn’t a Yankee (or both!). I’ve seen people–mostly writers–make the argument that the Yankees don’t necessarily need either player because of how good they were last year, but that’s a half-truth.

Yes, the Yankees won 100 games, but it still wasn’t enough to win the division and avoid being embarrassed in the playoffs. Yes, they will win lots of games with the roster as currently constructed and could, conceivably, win the World Series with it. No, having the most talent doesn’t guarantee anything. But it helps.

The Yankees were good last year, and at times great. They have a solid young core with some good veterans mixed in. This is exactly the team and exactly the time to push over the edge in a big way. They’ve added to the team with good pieces so far, but adding great ones in Machado and/or Harper would go a long way towards helping win number 28.

It’s undeniable that the team has been improved. But it’s also undeniable that it hasn’t been improved as much as it could’ve been.

A Question of Two Lefties

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(Ralph Freso/Getty)

The Yankees improved their rotation in the short term recently when they dealt for (former) Seattle lefty James Paxton. This came after re-signing CC Sabathia for a one year contract, joining the two with Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, and, uh, Sonny Gray. On its face, that isn’t a bad starting five and if they were to all pitch to their potential, it’d be fantastic. But that’s not the way the baseball world works.

Severino hit a road bump last year. Tanaka can be a bit up and down, despite my undying love for him. Sabathia is old now and can’t give more than 140-50 innings max. And Gray is likely to be shipped out any minute with the Winter Meetings looming. Given those realities, the Yankees still need to improve their rotation. The two players they’ve been connected with most frequently are free agent lefties Patrick Corbin, whom they met with this week, and JA Happ, whom they traded for last year. It appears an answer is on the way:

So it appears that something is going to happen. What is that something, though? As a follow up to Martino’s tweet, friend of the blog–and former guest post author Randy Wilkins had a good question: Is this either/or or both? The implication I took from Martino’s tweet is that it’s an either/or situation and the Yankees will sign one of them, not both.

Both pitchers have their pluses, aside from being lefties. Happ is a solid veteran who’s fairly consistent and, given his age, will likely require a shorter term deal for not as much money. Corbin will be looking for a big pay day, but is younger and better than Happ.

Signing either one would be a right move, but I think signing Corbin is the right move, for the reasons Mike and Bobby have laid out. The only wrong move here would be to pass on both of these players with no substitute move. If they passed on one but then went ahead and traded for, say, Corey Kluber, that would be acceptable.

But what about signing both? Or signing one and making another trade for a top starter? That would give the Yankees a six man rotation once Gray is a goner. Given Sabathia’s age, Severino’s wall-hitting, Paxton’s injury history (and therefore lack of innings), and Tanaka’s ‘upbringing’ as a pitcher in Japan (though extra rest hasn’t always done him good in MLB), it might make a good deal of sense for the Yankees to go with six starters. In theory, everyone gets more rest and it might allow for more bullpen flexibility. The way baseball is going, starters aren’t throwing huge workloads anymore and there may be a hidden advantage in having good pitchers throw less often but at theoretically higher effectiveness.

I doubt the Yankees will go with a six man rotation, but at the very least, they need to bring in one of the two lefty starters out there. Corbin is the one it should be. He’s the better pitcher. He’s the one with prime years left. He’s the one that fits this rotation best now and in the near future. With him, the Yankees would have three lefty starters who can miss bats or induce soft contact and two righties with great stuff and dominant potential. Pairing that with their bullpen and their lineup would make this team a contender in every sense of the word.

The Waiting Game

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(Presswire)

Patience is a virtue. And by virtue of their patience, the Yankees have achieved owner Hal Steinbrenner’s luxury tax savings plan. This has saved the organization some money and it’s given the Yankees a chance to develop talent like Luis Severino, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Miguel Andujar, and Gleyber Torres (even if that was just a finishing job), which has help set them up for future success without the absolute need to spend. Going into 2019, the Yankees could be successful without spending too much money.

There are some question marks on the Yankees and question marks sometimes demand answers from outside the organization. But the Yankees’ questions are largely internal: can Severino and Sanchez bounce back? Is Clint Frazier healthy?, for example. Additionally, the field of position players is pretty well stocked and crowded, especially with the re-signing of Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury still on the team. Adding a lot of talent may not be all that feasible. Besides, if the Yankees are patient, they can go for the best player on the market next year, Nolan Arenado. On the pitch side, waiting could also give them a shot at Chris Archer, Gerrit Cole, and Zach Wheeler for sure, with the possibility of Stephen Strasburg (opt out).

The Yankees should absolutely, positively not wait to spend their money. As Bob pointed out last week:

We’ve heard a lot about the need to cut salary in recent years, and the team has achieved that goal. Now, the Yankees are a very good team that is on the verge of being a great team — and spending on elite talent in the next few weeks might be the difference. But if they let this moment pass them by, they will have nobody to blame but themselves if they are sitting at home late in October again, watching their bitter rivals beating them at what was supposed to be their own game.

That aside, the Yankees would also be passing on two incredible talents in Bryce Harper and Manny Machado if they don’t attempt or sign both of them. These are two players you make room for. You find a way to make it work for guys that good.

On the pitching side of things, what do people always drone on about the Yankees needing? Starters. And what type of starters are favored in Yankee Stadium? Left handed ones. And whose available right now? Three lefty starters who would fit the team well, two of whom already have fit the team well: Patrick Corbin, JA Happ, and CC Sabathia. This combination of players will not exist for the Yankees to pursue again.

Hal and Brian Cashman are generally right: You don’t need a $200M payroll to win. The Yankees have proven that with their young talent the last two years. However, they’ve only been able to ride that talent so far. To push the team over the edge, they need to spend some money to strengthen the team even more. Patience may be a virtue and the Yankees ought to exercise it at times, but now is the time to avoid restraint. Go out and spend.

Thinking Ahead to 2019

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(Rich Schultz/Getty)

Before we begin, an early Happy Labor Day to all of you. While you’re winding your summer down this weekend, please take a minute and reflect on the blood, sweat, and tears of the labor movement that made this weekend and so many other things possible.

Last week, I had my first three days of work since June. There weren’t any students, and not even the full staff was there, but it gave those of us who were there a chance to plan ahead. So, in a notebook, I have my units and lessons vaguely planned out up through the three day weekend of Veteran’s Day. Like talking about the Yankees’ roster in 2019 in September 2018, that’s a fool’s errand because so many things can and will come up to disrupt those plans. Regardless, and given that shaker of salt to consider, let’s take a look into the near future.

Starting with departures, the Yankees have a handful of pending free agents. On the pitching side of things, there’s CC Sabathia, JA Happ, Lance Lynn, David Robertson, and Zach Britton. On the position player side of things, there’s Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, Adeiny Hechavarria,  and Brett Gardner (with a $2MM buyout). That would leave the roster looking something like this as this year ends and next year begins.

C–Gary Sanchez, Austin Romine/Kyle Higashioka

1B–Greg Bird, Luke Voit

2B–Gleyber Torres, Ronald Torreyes

3B–Miguel Andujar

SS–Didi Gregorius

LF– Clint Frazier

CF–Aaron Hicks

RF–Aaron Judge

DH–Giancarlo Stanton

SP–Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Sonny Gray,  Justus Sheffield (hopefully?), OPEN–presumably Jordan Montgomery if/when healthy

RP–Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Chad Green, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Holder, AJ Cole, Stephen Tarpley, Luis Cessa

That in and of itself is a decent roster; with it, the Yankees could easily compete, but there are enough questions that ‘reinforcements’ would be needed, especially on the pitching staff. A backup outfielder is also needed, as this bench is pretty thin.

Starting with, well, the starters, I think it’s almost a no brainer to bring CC Sabathia back. At this point, he’s earned the Andy Pettitte treatment–one year deals until he’s ready to retire. As he finishes out his career, he’s a good option on the back end of the rotation and he would be a great mentor to the younger guys on the staff in Sheffield and Montgomery. Additionally, he sets the tone for the clubhouse and having that around for another year would be valuable for the team in its present and future.

JA Happ has also earned a shot at a second look, at the very least. Having another lefty in the rotation, especially in Yankee Stadium, would be welcomed. His transition to a strikeout pitcher is also promising as his career moves forward. I’m not sure I’d go more than one or two years with him, but I wouldn’t object to him being back at all.

Between those relievers (and Lance Lynn), I think I’d only bring one back, and it would be David Robertson. Zach Britton still seems to be searching for something and while it might be a case of letting him go just as he’s about to figure things out, it’s risky enough that I’d be okay walking away.

As for the position players, all three are probably worthy of starting jobs, but it’s unclear if there would be one for them. Though it’s hard to say this–given he’s basically the position player version of Sabathia at this point, with the added homegrown label–it might be time for the Yankees to move on from Brett Gardner. I’ve loved rooting for him since his time in the minors and he’s been a good-at-times-great player for the Yankees since he came up, but the constant second half swoons and the young, viable replacement that is Clint Frazier make me think a send off is fine.

This, of course, doesn’t factor in outside spending and the Yankees–as every team–will look at the FA market for options, including Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. I, however, am unconvinced that the Yankees will spend big on either one. It would require a lot of moving parts and I don’t think that ownership wants to spend big anymore. While frustrating at times, it is an okay strategy in free agency, especially when the team doesn’t necessarily need big stars, given its construction and production.