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Update: Yankees finalize 2019 Opening Day roster

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German. (Presswire)

Sunday: Tyler Wade was optioned to Triple-A Scranton earlier today, the Yankees announced, clearing the way for new pickup Mike Tauchman to make the roster. Also, Aaron Boone told Coley Harvey that Stephen Tarpley will be in the bullpen, so between that and yesterday’s news, the pitching staff is set. Boone confirmed to Bryan Hoch that the updated roster below will in fact be the Opening Day roster.

Saturday: Although the official announcement will not come until Thursday morning, the Yankees have more or less finalized their 2019 Opening Day roster. Clint Frazier was sent to minor league camp Friday, taking him out of the running for the final bench spot, and George King reports Domingo German will be the 13th pitcher on the Opening Day roster.

Based on that, here is the 25-man Opening Day roster the Yankees will take into the regular season:

CATCHERS (2)
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

INFIELDERS (6)
3B Miguel Andujar
1B Greg Bird
IF DJ LeMahieu
2B/SS Gleyber Torres
SS Troy Tulowitzki
1B Luke Voit

OUTFIELDERS (4)
CF Brett Gardner
RF Aaron Judge
LF Giancarlo Stanton
UTIL Tyler Wade OF Mike Tauchman

STARTERS (5)
RHP Luis Cessa RHP Domingo German
LHP J.A. Happ
LHP James Paxton
RHP Masahiro Tanaka
LHP CC Sabathia (five-game suspension)

RELIEVERS (8)
LHP Zack Britton
LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Domingo German RHP Luis Cessa
RHP Chad Green
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Tommy Kahnle
RHP Adam Ottavino
LHP Stephen Tarpley

The Yankees will also have seven — seven! — players open the 2019 regular season on the injured list. The seven: Dellin Betances (shoulder), Jacoby Ellsbury (hip), Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery), Ben Heller (Tommy John surgery), Aaron Hicks (back), Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery), and Luis Severino (shoulder). Sabathia (knee) will become the eighth once his suspension ends.

At this point, the only spots still maybe up for grabs are Bird’s and Tarpley’s. Bird is supposedly fine but he has not played since taking a pitch to the elbow Wednesday. Given his history, I worry this will be something that lingers and forces him to be replaced on the Opening Day roster. Tarpley could be swapped out for someone like Gio Gonzalez or Jonathan Loaisiga, but nah, he’s pretty much a lock.

The Yankees have eight more big league Spring Training roster cuts to make: Nestor Cortes, Francisco Diaz, Raynel Espinal, Estevan Florial, Gio Gonzalez, David Hale, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Jorge Saez. Florial will miss the next few weeks as he recovers from his broken wrist. Those cuts will happen soon (duh).

March 23rd Spring Training Notes: Severino, Bird, Loaisiga, Montgomery, Roster Cuts, Tarpley

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The Yankees dropped this afternoon’s game to the Blue Jays. Gleyber Torres provided the only offense with a three-run home run. Miguel Andujar doubled while Brett Gardner, Austin Romine, and Tyler Wade had singles. Masahiro Tanaka was sharp in his two scoreless innings. Next time we see him will be Opening Day. Aroldis Chapman faced four batters and retired one. It was ugly. Better he gets it out of his system now than next week.

Gio Gonzalez made his Yankees debut and gave up five runs (four earned) in two innings. Gonzalez told Coley Harvey he is “just a tick off” right now but woof, he did not look big league ready. He looked like a guy who hasn’t gone through a proper Spring Training. Based on today, Gonzalez will need to some Triple-A time before potentially helping the Yankees. Here are the box score and video highlights, and here are the day’s notes from Tampa:

  • In case you missed it earlier, the Yankees traded lefty reliever Phil Diehl to the Rockies for outfielder Mike Tauchman. There’s a chance Tauchman will make the Opening Day roster, which would seem to be bad news for Greg Bird or Tyler Wade.
  • According to a report during the YES Network broadcast, Luis Severino (shoulder) played catch at 90 feet today as scheduled, and everything went well. He’s doing better mechanically after feeling a bit off during his first day of throwing. Not sure what the next step is for Severino.
  • Greg Bird (elbow) was scratched from the lineup after taking batting practice today. Aaron Boone said Bird is “fine,” but he wanted to sit him one more day so the swelling can go away completely. Bird is tentatively scheduled to play tomorrow afternoon. [Erik Boland, Lindsey Adler]
  • Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery) is targeting mid-August for his return. Right now he is throwing fastballs only and at less than full effort from a half-mound. He’s about a week away from graduating to a full mound, though offspeed pitches are still a ways off. [Lindsey Adler]
  • Jonathan Loaisiga was sent to minor league camp today and Boone said he will rejoin the Yankees after CC Sabathia’s five-game suspension ends. Domingo German (or an opener) will start the fourth game of the regular season, Masahiro Tanaka the fifth game (on normal rest), and Loaisiga the sixth game. Luis Cessa will pitch in long relief. Didn’t see that coming! [Bryan Hoch]
  • Following last night’s game Gio Urshela and Kyle Holder were reassigned to minor league camp, the Yankees announced. Nestor Cortes, Estevan Florial, and David Hale were sent down today. The Yankees will begin the regular season with a 24-man roster while Sabathia serves his suspension, so there are still five more cuts coming following the Tauchman trade.
  • And finally, Stephen Tarpley was named the James P. Dawson Award winner as the best rookie in camp prior to today’s game. Congrats to him. Tarpley threw 11.1 scoreless innings during Grapefruit League play. Andujar and Torres won it the last two years.

The Yankees wrap up their Grapefruit League season on the road against the Twins tomorrow. Unlike Tanaka today, James Paxton will make a full start tomorrow because he won’t pitch again until the second game of the regular season next Saturday. Lindsey Adler says Greg Bird, Luke Voit, Tyler Wade, Clint Frazier, and Austin Romine are making the trip. Tomorrow’s game will be televised live.

An updated look at the Yankees’ projected 2019 Opening Day roster as the injuries continue to mount

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(Presswire)

One week from today the Yankees will open the 2019 regular season at home against the Orioles. Masahiro Tanaka will be on the mound that day, not Luis Severino, because Severino suffered a shoulder injury earlier this month. That has been the story of Spring Training thus far. Injury after injury after injury.

The Yankees came into Spring Training with a 25-man roster that was fairly set. The last two bullpen spots and the final bench spot were up for grabs, and even then it was kinda easy to see who would get those spots. Now? Now injuries have created a few openings, openings the Yankees are still working to address. They have a week to figure it out.

So, with Yankees far from full strength going into the regular season, let’s take an updated look at the current state of the projected Opening Day roster. At this point, some Opening Day roster spots are being awarded almost by default.

Injured List (8)

Might as well start here. We know with certainty eight players — eight! — will be unavailable at the start of the regular season due to injury. Several of these injuries were known coming into Spring Training. Others popped up in recent weeks. These eight players combined for +18.4 WAR last year:

  • Dellin Betances (shoulder)
  • Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery)
  • Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery)
  • Ben Heller (Tommy John Surgery)
  • Aaron Hicks (back)
  • Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery)
  • CC Sabathia (knee, heart)
  • Luis Severino (shoulder)

The Yankees have not yet put these players on the injured list because they can’t. The 10-day IL doesn’t open until Monday. The 60-day IL has been open for a few weeks now, but the Yankees haven’t needed a 40-man roster spot yet, so there’s no reason to 60-day IL anyone. Montgomery and Gregorius figure to be the first two to go on the 60-day IL when 40-man space is needed.

It sounds like Hicks will be back a week into the regular season. Sabathia is expected back in mid-April and Severino in early-May. Everyone else is a little up in the air at this point, though Betances isn’t expected to be out too long. Ellsbury, Heller, Gregorius, and Montgomery are longer term injuries. We won’t see them for a while.

The Roster Locks (21)

After the injured dudes, the next logical place to go is the roster locks. I count 21 players who will assuredly be on the the Opening Day roster. There are no questions about these guys:

  • Position Players (11): Miguel Andujar, Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Troy Tulowitzki, Luke Voit, Tyler Wade
  • Pitchers (10): Zack Britton, Luis Cessa, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, J.A. Happ, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle, Masahiro Tanaka, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton

I am comfortable calling Cessa, Kahnle, and Wade roster locks at this point. Cessa and Kahnle are both out of minor league options and they came into the spring as Opening Day roster favorites, and they’ve done nothing to pitch their way off the roster. Cessa in particular has been lights out. Add in the pitching injuries and yeah, Cessa and Kahnle will be on the roster.

On more than one occasion this spring Aaron Boone has indicated Wade’s versatility gives him a leg up on a bench spot. Add in the Yankees playing him in center field as soon as it became clear Hicks would not be ready for Opening Day, and we’ve got two pretty good signs Wade has made the roster, assuming yesterday’s hip tightness truly is nothing (fingers crossed). He’s the de facto fourth outfielder until Hicks returns, and, as an added bonus, he can play the infield as well. Wade’s a lock.

The Near Lock (1)

Assuming the Yankees again go with the eight-man bullpen/three-man bench roster construction, they have one more position player spot to fill. Realistically, there are three candidates for that roster spot: Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, and non-roster invitee Billy Burns. I’d rank their chances of making the Opening Day roster like so:

  1. Greg Bird
    (huge gap)
  2. Billy Burns
    (tiny gap)
  3. Clint Frazier

Frazier has not had a good spring (.140/.220/.233) and Boone has said he needs regular at-bats after missing so much time last season. The Yankees could give him those at-bats at the big league level given the Hicks injury, but it seems unlikely given his Grapefruit League showing. I have Burns ever so slightly ahead of Frazier because I think the Yankees are more willing to let Burns sit on the bench as the fourth outfielder than Frazier. Burns on the bench with Frazier getting regular at-bats in Triple-A seem much more likely than vice versa.

Anyway, that is all moot because Bird is a damn near lock for the Opening Day roster thanks to the Hicks injury, as long as yesterday’s pitch to the elbow is nothing (again, fingers crossed). The Yankees love Bird and there are DH at-bats open now with Stanton set to play left field. Bird can take those at-bats. Another lefty bat in the lineup would be welcome, for sure. With Wade set to be the fourth outfielder, the Yankees can put both Bird and Voit in the lineup, and they sound excited about that scenario. Bird’s on the roster, I believe.

“I look at as we have two impact players,” Boone said to Randy Miller earlier this week. “Bird has been a different guy this year. He’s been the guy we’ve been waiting on. He looks that part right now (with) his at-bats. But Luke has come in and picked up where he left off last year. Both guys are controlling the strike zone. Both guys are impacting the ball. Both guys have done everything we could have hoped for. So now moving forward, we haven’t necessarily revealed anything, but now there’s a scenario where both of them can certainly factor in on a regular basis for at least early in the season.”

The Gio vs. German Spot (1)

(Presswire)

I am working under the assumption Sabathia will serve his five-game suspension on Opening Day. That makes the most sense. The Yankees could get the suspension out of the way early, then use Sabathia’s injured list stint to recall a recently optioned player. I thought Domingo German would be that recently optioned player before the Betances injury. I’m not so sure now.

With Betances hurt and Cessa needed in the rotation right out of the gate, the Yankees are a little shorthanded in the bullpen, and carrying German on the Opening Day roster as a long man seems likely to me. If he’s needed in long relief at some point during Sabathia’s suspension, the Yankees will use him and call up someone else (Jonathan Loaisiga?) to be the interim fifth starter. If he’s not needed in long relief, he then becomes the fifth starter.

Loaisiga’s hasn’t had a good spring (11 runs in 12 innings) and pitching coach Larry Rothschild recently said it’s big league rotation or Triple-A for Johnny Lasagna. They’re going to develop him as a starter and not use him out of the bullpen even though I think a bullpen role shouldn’t be ruled out. Loaisiga has a long and scary injury history, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to get whatever you can out of him before he gets hurt again. Harsh, but that’s the business.

With Loaisiga pitching himself out of the rotation conversation, there are three potential candidates to wrestle that fifth starter/swingman spot from German: David Hale, Drew Hutchison, and the recently signed Gio Gonzalez. Nestor Cortes isn’t a serious Opening Day roster candidate and Chance Adams has already been sent to minor league camp. That doesn’t mean the Yankees can’t carry Adams on the Opening Day roster. It just seems unlikely.

Hale and Hutchison have been fine this spring. They haven’t been mentioned as Opening Day roster candidates at all and I think — and I think the Yankees think — German is flat out better than both of them. Hale and Hutchison are break glass in case of emergency guys. You call them up when you have no one else. Even with all the pitching injuries, the Yankees are thankfully not at that point yet. They’re out, so it’s German vs. Gio.

Gonzalez reported to camp two days ago and he’s thrown upwards of 80 pitches on his own, so his arm is stretched out. “I don’t think I am far away at all,” he said to Kristie Ackert. “I have been staying with my routine. In my last (simulated game), I pitched Monday, 88 pitches, five innings. I am trying to keep up with baseball, at least I am doing my routine and sticking to my guns. I’ll be ready to go. Hopefully I’ll be in a game pretty soon.”

Brian Cashman hedged a bit, saying the Yankees are looking forward to getting a look at Gonzalez up close the next few weeks. He has an April 20th opt-out date and it sounds like the Yankees want to take their time evaluating him. If push comes to shove and injuries force their hand, sure, they’ll carry Gio on Opening Day. It does not sound like that’s the plan. It sounds like Gonzalez is Plan B with German being Plan A.

Had he signed over the winter and reported to Spring Training with everyone else, this would definitely be Gonzalez’s roster spot. That’s not what happened though. He signed late and, even though he’s stretch out to 80 or so pitches, he’s probably not where he needs to be with his feel for his stuff or his command. That gives German the edge. I think he’s on the roster as a long reliever who moves into the fifth starter’s spot when the time comes.

The Final Pitching Spot (1)

Sabathia’s suspension means the Yankees have to play with a 24-man roster. A three-man bench equals 12 pitcher spots during the suspension, and we have ten locks plus German, leaving one open spot. Once Sabathia’s suspension ends and the Yankees go back to 13 pitches, either German slots in as the fifth starter and a reliever gets called up, or German remains in the bullpen and a starter gets called up. Point is, there’s one open pitching spot.

Sticking with players who remain in big league camp, the Yankees have ten candidates for that final pitching spot. Sure, they could also bring back someone who’s already been sent out (Adams?), but it does seem unlikely. The ten candidates:

  • On the 40-man roster (2): Jonathan Loaisiga, Stephen Tarpley
  • Not on the 40-man roster (8): Rex Brothers, Nestor Cortes, Danny Coulombe, Phil Diehl, Raynel Espinal, Gio Gonzalez, David Hale, Drew Hutchison

We’ve already ruled out Gonzalez, Hale, and Hutchison as serious Opening Day roster candidates earlier in this post. Also, Loaisiga is a big league rotation or bust guy, so, for our purposes, it’s bust. He’s in Triple-A. Brothers has eight walks in 5.1 innings this spring after walking 44 in 40.2 minor league innings last year. I think we can cross him off the list. Espinal had a visa issue and reported to camp late, and has thrown one (1) Grapefruit League inning. He falls into that “he won’t be fully ready for Opening Day” group, similar to Gio.

That leaves four candidates: Cortes, Coulombe, Diehl, and Tarpley. Pretty easy to see where this is going, right? It’ll be Tarpley. He’s already on the 40-man roster and he impressed the Yankees enough last September to get a spot on the ALDS roster. Also, Tarpley’s had a very nice spring, chucking ten scoreless innings. That won’t hurt his cause. Diehl’s been impressive at times this spring but he’s barely pitched above Single-A. Cortes? Coulombe? I have no reason to believe they are ahead of Tarpley in the bullpen pecking order. Tarpley it is.

The Projected Roster (24+1)

That is 24 active players plus one suspended Sabathia. Again, once the five-game suspension ends, Sabathia goes directly on the injured list and the Yankees call up another pitcher to get back to a normal three-man bench/eight-man bullpen arrangement. Injures have really stretched the Yankees thin already. Sheesh. Anyway, after all that, here’s the projected Opening Day roster:

Catchers Infielders Outfielders Rotation Bullpen
Gary Sanchez 1B Greg Bird LF Giancarlo Stanton Masahiro Tanaka CL Aroldis Chapman
Austin Romine 1B Luke Voit CF Brett Gardner James Paxton SU Zack Britton
2B Gleyber Torres RF Aaron Judge J.A. Happ SU Chad Green
SS Troy Tulowitzki UTIL Tyler Wade Luis Cessa SU Adam Ottavino
3B Miguel Andujar MR Jonathan Holder
IF DJ LeMahieu MR Tommy Kahnle
MR Stephen Tarpley
SWG Domingo German

That is 24 active players plus one suspended player (Sabathia) plus seven other players on the injured list (Betances, Ellsbury, Gregorius, Heller, Hicks, Montgomery, Severino). Once Sabathia’s suspension ends, he becomes the eighth (!) player on the injured list, and the Yankees get their 25th roster spot back. Presumably it goes to a pitcher seeing how they’ve rarely employed a seven-man bullpen the last two years or so.

Bird’s elbow could throw a wrench into the roster situation. If he’s unable to go Opening Day, the Yankees would have little choice but to carry Burns or Frazier as the extra outfielder, with LeMahieu moving into the everyday lineup (Andujar to DH?) and Wade taking over as the full-time backup infielder. Hopefully Bird’s elbow (and Wade’s hips) is a-okay and he’ll be fine come Opening Day.

The injuries have eliminated several position battles. With a healthy Severino, it’s German vs. Tarpley for one spot. With Hicks healthy, it’s Bird vs. Wade for one spot. The injuries answered some questions and everything kinda falls into place. I don’t think we can completely rule out Gio beating out German, though it would surprise me. It really seems like the Yankees want to get an extended look at Gonzalez in minor league games first.

Hopefully everyone stays healthy these next seven days and the Yankees can go into the regular season with that roster. That is almost certainly the best 24+1 unit they could put together right now. Once Sabathia goes on the injured list, the Yankees get the 25th roster spot back. Once Hicks returns, they’ll have to drop another position player. Worry about that later though. Those are questions the Yankees will answer when the time comes and not a minute sooner.

March 20th Spring Training Notes: Sevy, Wade, Montgomery, Chapman, Happ, Sabathia, Mazzilli

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The Yankees dropped this afternoon’s game to the Astros. It’s their first loss in nearly two weeks. Jonathan Holder threw two scoreless innings as the opener but did allow a lot of hard contact. The wind knocked some balls down and his defense made some nice plays. It was a deceptive two scoreless innings. Nestor Cortes allowed one unearned run in three innings and Joe Harvey allowed a run in two innings. Holder was the only projected big leaguer to pitch.

The shorthanded lineup managed only four hits on the afternoon. Gary Sanchez and Gleyber Torres each doubled and Luke Voit had two singles. That’s it. Gleyber drew two walks and Bird drew a walk and was hit by a pitch. Got him square in the elbow guard, fortunately. “When does it ever hit the pad, right?” he joked to Coley Harvey afterward. Here are the box score and video highlights, and here are the day’s notes from Tampa:

  • Luis Severino (shoulder) played catch today for the first time since being shut down with inflammation. He made 25 throws at 60 feet and felt good physical despite being out of sync mechanically. “I just feel a little bit off because I’ve been out for two weeks. Just in my whole body when I threw in the outfield. The mechanics, all that stuff,” he said. Severino will make 50 throws tomorrow, then rest Friday. [Marly Rivera, Bryan Hoch]
  • Tyler Wade exited this afternoon’s game with tightness in his hips and is heading back to Tampa for evaluation. He said it was precautionary and thinks it’s because he fell asleep on the bus in a weird position. “A lot of guys are hurt right now so I didn’t want to keep pushing it,” he said. [James Wagner, Lindsey Adler, David Lennon]
  • Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery) has graduated from flat ground throwing. He made 25 pitches from a half-mound yesterday. How may more bullpen sessions? “Nineteen more,” he said. What happens after that? “Not sure,” he said. It is a long and lonely rehab road. [George King]
  • Gio Gonzalez will throw a bullpen session tomorrow and declared himself “ready to go” for the regular season. We’ll see whether the Yankees agree. Gonzalez added the Yankees were the only team that made him an offer over the winter. Sees normal. [Brendan Kuty, Erik Boland]
  • Aroldis Chapman threw two innings in a minor league game today and J.A. Happ threw a 33-pitch simulated game. We’ve reached the “short tune-up outing” point of Spring Training. Hooray for that. CC Sabathia will pitch in a minor league game tomorrow. [Kristie Ackert, George King]
  • Guest instructor Lee Mazzilli was hit in the head by a batted ball during batting practice today. Ouch. He was taken to the hospital and admitted for tests. Hope he’s okay. [George King]

Only four more Grapefruit League games to go! The Yankees have a road game against the Cardinals tomorrow afternoon. Domingo German is the scheduled starter. No opener this time. Tomorrow’s game will be televised live.

Yankees sign Aaron Judge, 20 other pre-arbitration-eligible players to one-year contracts for 2019

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(Presswire)

Opening Day is less than three weeks away and the Yankees recently wrapped up their final little bit of offseason business. The Yankees have signed their 21 pre-arbitration-eligible players to one-year deals for 2019, reports the Associated Press. That’s everyone. The entire 40-man roster is under contract.

As a reminder, players with less than three years of service time do not have arbitration rights. The team can pay them pretty much whatever they want, though they usually negotiate with the player and agree to a salary to maintain a good relationship. The Yankees agreed to deals with everyone this year and did not unilaterally renew anyone, which they did with Dellin Betances back in the day.

Here, via the Associated Press, are the salary details. Because I like you, I’ve gone through the trouble of including each player’s year-to-year raise in parenthesis, assuming last year’s salary information is available. The Major League minimum rose from $545,000 last season to $555,000 this season.

Service Time (Years.Days) MLB Salary MiLB Salary
Gary Sanchez 2.086 $669,800 ($49,400) $310,200
Aaron Judge 2.051 $684,300 ($62,000) $311,150
Chad Green 2.050 $598,650 ($27,850) $285,400
Jordan Montgomery 1.153 $596,600 ($16,150) $290,225
Jonathan Holder 1.144 $580,300 $262,947
Luis Cessa 1.131 $578,975 ($10,050) $210,768
Ben Heller 1.096 $555,000 ($7,525) $273,738
Clint Frazier 1.057 $563,300 ($4,100) $222,711
Miguel Andujar 1.020 $617,600 ($71,800) $269,216
Domingo German 1.017 $577,500 ($29,275) $190,150
Tyler Wade 1.007 $572,000 ($20,700) $155,692
Luke Voit 0.169 $573,200 ($27,600) $145,673
Gleyber Torres 0.162 $605,200 ($60,200) $240,210
Kyle Higashioka 0.124 $562,900 $160,207
Jonathan Loaisiga 0.047 $560,550 ($15,550) $92,766
Stephen Tarpley 0.030 $557,250 $90,400
Chance Adams 0.025 $556,725 $90,400
Domingo Acevedo 0.001 $555,000 $90,400
Albert Abreu 0.000 $555,000 $90,400
Thairo Estrada 0.000 $555,000 ($10,000) $90,400
Joe Harvey 0.000 $555,000 $45,300

Unless the two sides agree to a long-term contract, all pre-arb players sign non-guaranteed one-year split contracts that pay them one salary in the big leagues and another in the minors. Non-guaranteed means the team can release the player in Spring Training and pay him only a fraction of his contract. I don’t expect that to happen with anyone though. I’m just saying.

Most teams, including the Yankees, have a sliding salary scale based on service time for pre-arb players, with escalators for All-Star Games and awards voting, things like that. Minor league salary is determined by big league service time and tenure on the 40-man roster more than anything. This is Harvey’s first year on the 40-man. It’s Abreu’s and Estrada’s second and their minor league salaries are almost exactly double Harvey’s. The math is easy enough.

It goes without saying many pre-arb players are grossly underpaid. Judge at less than $700,000 is one of the best bangs for the buck in baseball. Players make nothing early in their careers, and it used to be that teams made it up on the back end during free agency. That isn’t really the case anymore. The MLBPA should push for increased pay for players with 0-6 years of service time. I’m not sure increased spending on free agency is realistic in the analytics era.

The Yankees have already signed Luis Severino and Aaron Hicks long-term this spring, and reports indicate they’re talking extensions with others as well. Impending free agents Dellin Betances and Didi Gregorius are presumably the top priorities. Judge and Sanchez are in their final dirt cheap pre-arb season, so I’d assume the Yankees will talk to them about an extension at some point. They might enjoy the huge six-figure production in 2019 first.

March 8th Spring Training Notes: Sevy, Hicks, Montgomery

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The Yankees dropped tonight’s game to the Tigers. Giancarlo Stanton clocked a long home run while DJ LeMahieu and Austin Romine added doubles. Romine, Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres, and Brett Gardner had singles as well. Kyle Holder provided two hits off the bench, including a solo homer. Even the glove first guys in the farm system have power.

Masahiro Tanaka started and allowed two runs in 3.1 innings, striking out five. Domingo German allowed three runs in his three innings and was victimized by some real sloppy defense. It was sloppy all night, mostly because the non-roster guys and minor league call-ups wscrewed things up. Here are the box score and video highlights, and here are the day’s notes from Tampa:

  • The Yankees have selected an Opening Day starter. They’ll tell us who it is once they break the news to the players. I imagine we’ll get an update pretty soon. Within a day or two. The majority of RAB readers believe it should be Masahiro Tanaka. [Lindsey Adler]
  • Luis Severino (shoulder) received his cortisone shot and feels much better. There’s no longer any pain when he lifts his arm. Aaron Hicks (back) has resumed baseball activities but the Yankees are going to hold him out of games until after Monday’s off-day. [Kristie Ackert, Pete Caldera]
  • Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery) has stretched his throwing out to 120 feet. The next step is throwing off a half-mound, then a full mound. I wrote the Montgomery season preview and we get a rehab update. How convenient. [Bryan Hoch]
  • DJ LeMahieu has started working out at first base and will begin playing there next week. He’s played four games at third base and two games at second base so far this spring. [Bryan Hoch]

If you’re interested, tonight’s game will be replayed on YES Network (10:30pm ET) and MLB Network (11:30pm ET). The Yankees will be back at it tomorrow against the Orioles. That’s another night game. Luis Cessa is the scheduled starter. That game will be televised live.

The Second Half Rotation Addition [2019 Season Preview]

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(Presswire)

For the fifth time in the last five seasons, the Yankees lost a member of their starting rotation to Tommy John surgery last year. Jordan Montgomery, who exited his May 1st start with elbow tightness, joined Michael Pineda (2017), Nathan Eovaldi (2016), Chase Whitley (2015), and Ivan Nova (2014). That’s some rotten elbow luck.

Prior to his injury Montgomery made six starts and pitched to a 3.62 ERA (4.22 FIP) in 27.1 innings. His strikeout rate (22.2% to 19.8%) dropped and his walk rate (7.9% to 10.3%) increased from his rookie year, though it was only 27.1 innings, so it’s tough to tell what was noise and what is meaningful. The curse of small sample sizes.

Montgomery, 26, he had his surgery on June 7th. With the exception of one minor little setback over the winter — “Just general soreness. I feel like I’m just hypersensitive to everything in my elbow right now,” he said to Coley Harvey last month — his Tommy John surgery rehab is on schedule. He’s due to return later this summer.

The prospect of a healthy Montgomery returning to give the Yankees a midseason lift is exciting. He was solid during his rookie year, occasionally spectacular, and there’s never such a thing as too much rotation depth. Another warm body to give the regular starters a little breather down the stretch would be welcome. Let’s preview Montgomery’s partial season.

When will he return, exactly?

The plan is sometime after the All-Star break. Montgomery started his throwing program a few weeks ago — he was making 50 throws at 90 feet when Spring Training opened — and we haven’t heard any updates recently, though that’s not unusual. Last month Montgomery told Pete Caldera he would throw in the bullpen sometime this month, and rejoin the Yankees in mid-July. “I have my sights set on that,” he said.

Returning to the mound sometime this month does not mean Montgomery will enter Spring Training mode. Tommy John surgery rehab includes several weeks of mound work before game action. The first few weeks are all fastballs too. It’ll be a few weeks until breaking balls and changeups are introduced. Montgomery starting mound work this month puts him in track to see game action sometime in May.

Minor league rehab stints for position players are 20 days maximum. They’re 30 days maximum for pitchers, but, if a pitcher is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, teams can request another 30 days and MLB always grants it. Bet on that happening with Montgomery. The Yankees will want him to get as much game action as possible. Remember, the goal is not only to get stretched out to 100 pitches. Montgomery has to get his mechanics back in place and regain feel for his pitches. I’d consider a return sooner than mid-July to be pretty aggressive.

“I’ve got four more months to get as strong as I can and try to work on anything I want to. My mechanics, clean those out, get my legs stronger,” Montgomery said to Harvey last month. “Just to get in better shape and come back a whole new pitcher is the plan … Hopefully in four months, right when I’m done with my rehab starts, then I’ll be back (with the Yankees).”

What happens when he comes back?

Worry about it when the time comes. Seriously. There’s no point in wondering where Montgomery will slot into the rotation when he returns when we’re still (at least) four months away from that happening. It’s too far away and lots can and will change between now and then. If the rotation is healthy and productive, send Montgomery to Triple-A. If there are injuries and an open spot, stick him in the rotation. That’s it. This is the epitome of a “figure it out when the time comes” situation. It’s a boring answer, I know, but it is the only possible answer right now.

Will he be the same Montgomery?

There have been many studies examining performance after Tommy John surgery. The results of those studies often conflict, and the end result is a great big shrug emoji. Some guys return better than ever (because they were pitching with a damaged elbow so long). Some guys return same as always (because the elbow ligament just snapped one day). Some guys never get back to where they were (because they lose a little stuff or command with the new ligament).

I will say this much: Montgomery can’t really afford to lose any stuff or command. He’s never been a big velocity guy (91.9 mph average fastball in his MLB career), so he needs sharp secondary pitches and good control to be effective. Less anything — less velocity, less break, less control — would negatively impact Montgomery more than it would, say, Michael Pineda, who had stuff to spare. Montgomery’s margin for error isn’t very big. Reducing it any further would be bad news.

Chances are Montgomery will return from Tommy John surgery fine and dandy because most pitchers return from Tommy John surgery and go back to being themselves. Some guys, like Matt Moore, are never the same and that’s always a risk. The odds are in Montgomery’s favor though. An immediate return to No. 4 starter level would be wonderful. If Montgomery doesn’t get all the way back there until 2020, that’s okay too.

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I can already hear Brian Cashman, Aaron Boone, and everyone else talking about Montgomery’s return being like a trade deadline pickup. Get ready for it. It’s coming. My hot take for the day is Montgomery is probably going to end up making more minor league starts than Major League starts this season, partly because he still has a long rehab stint ahead of him, and also because he’s not one of the team’s five best starters when everyone’s healthy. Will everyone be healthy? Probably not, but I hope so.

Whatever Montgomery gives the Yankees this season gravy. That’s how they have to look at it. I know it’s easy to dream on Montgomery returning in mid-July and being the knight in shining armor who saves the rotation, but that’s probably not realistic, nor is it fair. Expecting a pitcher coming off a major arm surgery to have an immediate impact is no way for a contender to build a rotation. Montgomery’s full return to form is likely to happen in 2020. Anything he gives the Yankees in 2019 is a bonus.