Justin Bour Archives - River Avenue Blues

Scouting the Free Agent Market: The Non-Tendered Players

December 3, 2018 by Domenic Lanza

With Friday’s deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players firmly in the rearview mirror, a slew of viable free agents have hit the market. There are no stars, to be sure, but there’s a little bit of everything to be had amongst the forty-plus players that are now available for nothing more than cash. With that in mind, I will profile some of the players that could conceivably make sense for the Yankees, based upon their current stated and positional needs. And, given just how many names there are on this list, I decided to put them in alphabetical order instead of trying to sort by preference.

Please note that I’m providing the arbitration projection for each player in place of a salary estimate. The reason for this is that I’m operating under the assumption that many of these players were shopped in the hopes of getting something in return, but they couldn’t find any takers – so none of these guys are likely to start a bidding war, and will likely earn a bit less than they would’ve through arbitration.

Luis Avilan, LHRP

The rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 29
2018 Stats – 45.1 IP, 25.9 K%, 9.1 BB%, 3.77 ERA, 3.09 FIP
Arbitration Projection – $3.1 MM
Years of Control – 1

Avilan has been a relatively consistent lefty-specialist for seven years now, holding LHH to a sub-.700 OPS in six of those years. Same-handed hitters hit just .217 against him last year, which is right in-line with his career norm of .210. He’s not flashy, and he’s a liability against righties – but he could more than adequately fill a role in any team’s bullpen. The only red flag here is his velocity, which slipped by over 1 MPH in 2018; lefty specialists aren’t always known for their stuff, but a dip of that magnitude is never a good sign.

Whether Avilan makes sense for the Yankees is kind of up in the air, as is the case with every other reliever on this list. If the team wants to strengthen its bullpen, there are certainly better options out there; but, if there’s a budget in-play, Avilan is a solid option.

Tim Beckham, IF

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 29
2018 Stats – .230/.287/.374, 12 HR, 1 SB, 79 wRC+ in 402 PA
Arbitration Projection – $4.3 MM
Years of Control – 2

Beckham will never overcome the bust label that has been firmly affixed for half a decade now, but he was a solid utility infielder in 2016 and 2017. He played more than passable defense at second, third, and short, and was a league-average hitter in both seasons; he showed flashes of more than that after being dealt to the Orioles at the 2017 trade deadline, as well. But, alas, 2018 was his worst big league season on offense and defense. His walk and strikeout rates trended in the right direction, but not significantly so – and that was about it.

So why is he here? Put simply, the Yankees need infield depth and Beckham has played all four positions. And he’s played them well at times, to boot. Even with the bust designation, he had three years of solid utility work and he’s still in what should be the prime of his career – so it wouldn’t be shocking if he could get back to that level. It’s not glamorous, but there’s value in a utility infielder that can swing a league-average bat.

Justin Bour, 1B/DH

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 30
2018 Stats – .227/.341/.404, 20 HR, 2 SB, 107 wRC+ in 501 PA
Arbitration Projection – $5.2 MM
Years of Control – 2

I wrote about Brandon Belt – who is owed over $50 MM over the next three years – a few weeks ago, and discussed how often worthwhile first base options are available. I bring that up now because Bour (119 wRC+) and Belt (122) have had almost identical production over the last three years, and Bour was just non-tendered by a team that fancies itself a contender. Bour is coming off of the worst season of his career by wRC+, but he posted a career-best 14.6% walk rate and still socked 20 dingers. You could do a great deal worst at first, and the Yankees largely have post-Teixeira.

Bour makes sense as a target if the Yankees are moving on from Greg Bird. And, given that he’s best-suited as the larger side of a platoon (he had a 123 wRC+ against RHP last year), he could work quite well with Luke Voit.

Brad Boxberger, RHRP

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 30
2018 Stats – 53.1 IP, 30.2 K%, 13.2 BB%, 4.39 ERA, 4.55 FIP
Arbitration Projection – $4.9 MM
Years of Control – 1

Boxberger’s overall numbers don’t look terribly enticing; quite the opposite, actually (aside from the strikeouts). However, it’s worth noting that he, like seemingly everyone on the Diamondbacks, fell apart in September as the team slid out of contention. Heading into the final month of the season, Boxberger was sitting on a 3.45 ERA in 47.0 IP, with 33.8% strikeouts and 12.1% walks (as well as a 50% groundball rate). The walks are still high, but he was otherwise a rock solid closer until that horrendous month. And his number from the first five months of the season are right in-line with his career norms.

Relievers fall off of a cliff out of nowhere all the time, to be sure – but Boxberger has enough of a track record to suggest that his September was a slump. And I could see him being a legitimate weapon for whatever team signs him. I wouldn’t mind if that was the Yankees.

Matt Bush, RHRP

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 33
2018 Stats – 23.0 IP, 17.6 K%, 13.0 BB%, 4.70 ERA, 5.29 FIP
Arbitration Projection – N/A
Years of Control – 4

Bush is here purely as a buy-low candidate, and probably a minor league deal guy. He was excellent in 2016 and very good in 2017, but injuries and struggles helped him fall out of favor in Texas last year.

He’s also here because, even with the injuries, his fastball sat at 96 MPH last year, and his fastball spin rate ranks among the elite at 2550 RPM over the last three years. That’s the fourth-best spin rate among the 268 pitchers to throw at least 1000 fastballs since the beginning of 2016. Hell, it’s 15th among all pitchers with at least 100 fastballs thrown in that time. Bush has had injury issues and he’s not young, but there’s a lot to work with here.

Xavier Cedeno, LHRP

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 32
2018 Stats – 33.1 IP, 24.3 K%, 11.4 BB%, 2.43 ERA, 2.95 FIP
Arbitration Projection – $1.5 MM
Years of Control – 1

Cedeno missed nearly all of 2017 with forearm soreness, but you wouldn’t know that from how well he performed in 2018. The walks are a bit high, but they’re balanced nicely by his strikeout rate and his ability to burn worms – he had a 54.4% groundball rate last year, which is in-line with his career rate of 50.9%. I kind of buried the lede here, though, as Cedeno’s another lefty specialist. Though, he’s more effective against lefties than Avilan, and may therefore make more sense in a highly-specialized bullpen.

Mike Fiers, RHSP

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 33
2018 Stats – 172.0 IP, 19.5 K%, 5.2 BB%, 3.56 ERA, 4.75 FIP
Arbitration Projection – $9.7 MM
Years of Control – 1

Fiers has carved out a respectable career as a league-average starter in nearly 900 IP. He has been incredibly inconsistent from year-to-year, though; to wit, his ERAs over the last four years are 3.69, 4.48, 5.52, and 3.56. His FIPs follow the same pattern, as do his strikeouts, walks, and home runs. In short, you never know what you’re getting with Fiers (aside from high home run rates – it’s just a matter of how high). That being said, he’s also a guy that’s made at least 28 starts in four straight seasons, and has value as a back-end starter that could give you a bit more.

He’s low on the list of pitchers that I’d like to see the Yankees look at should other options fall through, but I could see Fiers making sense; but he’s something like the tenth best starting pitcher on the market.

Wilmer Flores, IF

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 27
2018 Stats – .267/.319/.417, 11 HR, 0 SB, 103 wRC+ in 429 PA
Arbitration Projection – $4.7 MM
Years of Control – 1

It seems like Flores has been around forever, doesn’t it? I suppose being a three-time top-hundred prospect and making your MLB debut at 21 will do that.

Flores was a solid utility player for the Mets over the last four years, sitting a tick above league-average with the bat and providing acceptable glovework at first, second, and third. He’s a high-contact hitter, striking out in just 9.8% of his PA last year, and he has enough pop to drive pitches over the fence to all fields. He’s probably no better than average in any facet of the game, but, aside from a lack of walks (6.8% last year), he doesn’t really have a glaring weakness.

If the Yankees are looking for a temporary placeholder at second with the hopes of him moving to the bench when Didi Gregorius returns, the could do a heck of a lot worse than Flores.

Dan Jennings, LHRP

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 31
2018 Stats – 64.1 IP, 16.6 K%, 8.5 BB%, 3.22 ERA, 4.09 FIP
Arbitration Projection – $1.6 MM
Years of Control – 1

Hey, it’s another lefty specialist! Or, maybe not, depending on how much stock you put in recency bias. Over the course of his career, Jennings has had a minimal platoon split, holding lefties to a .296 wOBA and righties to a .317 wOBA. He’s been deployed largely as a match-up guy, but he’s face more righties than lefties owing to the fact that his managers have been comfortable leaving him in to face more than one good lefty. Last year, however, Jennings was battered by righties, allowing a .310/.399/.528 slash line. Ouch.

Guys like Jennings who rely on grounders (55.4% for his career) are scary in Yankee Stadium – but if the team’s looking for a specialist, he makes sense.

Blake Parker, RHRP

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 33
2018 Stats – 66.1 IP, 25.4 K%, 6.9 BB%, 3.26 ERA, 4.40 FIP
Arbitration Projection – $3.1 MM
Years of Control – 2

I was kind of surprised to see Parker non-tendered, as he was very good for the Angels over the last two years. The only black mark was a 1.63 HR/9 last season, which should be neither overlooked nor harped upon. Parker’s not the bullpen ace that he looked like for most of 2017, but he feels like the type of free agent that will get a great deal less than similar players due to the lack of name value and stigma of the non-tender.

A reunion with the Yankees could make sense, with the hopes that his home run rates normalize of course.

Jonathan Schoop, 2B

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 27
2018 Stats – .233/.266/.416, 21 HR, 1 SB, 80 wRC+ in 501 PA
Arbitration Projection – $10.1 MM
Years of Control – 1

Schoop reminds me a bit of Starlin Castro, in that the obvious talent is there, but always feels just out of reach. The 27-year-old has big-time power and athleticism, but he’s among the most impatient hitters in the game, with a swing percentage that’s nearly 10 percentage points above league-average. That worked well in his career-best 2017, when he posted a 122 wRC+, and found him wanting in 2018. The power’s undoubtedly there, and he’s an average defender at second – but Schoop will only go as far as his BABIP takes him.

If you look at his average season, Schoop makes sense as a stop-gap second baseman. Without much in the way of versatility, though, I don’t like the fit.

Matt Shoemaker, RHSP

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 32
2018 Stats – 31.0 IP, 25.4 K%, 7.7 BB%, 4.94 ERA, 3.35 FIP
Arbitration Projection – $4.3 MM
Years of Control – 2

Shoemaker missed most of 2017 and 2018 with nerve issues in his forearm that required two separate surgeries. That’s scary. And yet there’s a silver lining, as he returned to make six starts in September, with his stuff fully intact. His 4.94 ERA is ugly, but Shoemaker racked up strikeouts and limited walks, and looked entirely like the pitcher he had been prior to his forearm problems. Granted, that means he’s been a largely back-end starter, not unlike the aforementioned Mike Fiers – but, as I’ve said before, there’s value in that.

I prefer Shoemaker to Fiers, if the Yankees have the need to deep-dive into this end of the starting pitching pool. But both should be essentially considered emergency options.

Yangervis Solarte, IF

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 31
2018 Stats – .226/.277/.378, 17 HR, 1 SB, 77 wRC+ in 506 PA
Arbitration Projection – $5.9 MM
Years of Control – 1

Full disclosure: I’m only including Solarte because he’s been bandied about a bit on Yankees Twitter. I’m not sure if that’s because he’s a former Yankee, but he has slipped as a hitter and defender in back-to-back years, and doesn’t strike me as the type of player in-line for a big bounce-back season.

Alex Wilson, RHRP

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 32
2018 Stats – 61.2 IP, 17.6 K%, 6.1 BB%, 3.36 ERA, 4.28 FIP
Arbitration Projection – $2.8 MM
Years of Control – 1

Wilson has been a steady albeit unspectacular reliever for four-plus years now, plying his trade by avoiding walks and keeping the ball on the ground (49.2% grounders in 2018). He’s something of an interesting case in terms of approach, as he throws three pitches, and they’re all fastballs – a four-seamer, a sinker, and a cutter, to be more specific. Wilson mixes it up by changing his usage rate of all three from game-to-game, and it’s been enough to keep hitters off-balance so far. Whether or not that would work in a more hitter-friendly park is up in the air.

Saturday Links: Bour, Trade Value, Conlon, Rasmussen

July 15, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

Later today the Yankees and Red Sox will continue their four games in three days series with the second game at Fenway Park. That’s a 4pm ET start. Until then, here are some links to check out.

Bour trade talks only “cursory”

According to Buster Olney, trade talks between the Yankees and Marlins about first baseman Justin Bour have only been “cursory, non-specific.” Olney says the Marlins have let teams know they’re open for business while Jon Heyman reports the club has no intention to trade its affordable core players. That sounds like posturing to me. They’re willing to trade them but say they won’t in an effort to build some leverage.

Bour, 29, is hitting .289/.367/.556 (136 wRC+) with 20 home runs in 77 games this season, plus he’s under team control as an arbitration-eligible player through 2020. He put on quite a show in the Home Run Derby before getting knocked out by Aaron Judge. On one hand, Bour would be an enormous first base upgrade for the Yankees, and he’d provide a DH option going forward should Greg Bird ever get healthy. On the other hand, something about trading prospects for a 29-year-old late bloomer at the bottom of the defensive spectrum doesn’t sit well with me.

Three Yankees make FanGraphs’ trade value series

Over the last week Dave Cameron has posted his annual trade value series, in which he ranks the top 50 players in baseball by trade value. It’s not just about performance. It’s about performance and years of team control, things like that. Bryce Harper is obviously excellent, though he doesn’t make the top 50 because he’ll be a free agent after next season. Anyway, three Yankees make the top 50, and they’re the young cornerstones of the franchise.

6. Aaron Judge
12. Gary Sanchez
35. Luis Severino

Judge is behind Carlos Correa, Mike Trout, Corey Seager, Kris Bryant, and Francisco Lindor in that order. I have no problems with that. Judge is awesome and he won’t be a free agent until after the 2022 season, though he’s only been this for half-a-season. Those other guys have done it for a full season, at least. Sanchez is the highest ranked catcher and Severino is the 12th ranked pitcher, which is pretty great. Last year there were no Yankees in the trade value series. Now there are three, including two in the top 12.

O’s fourth rounder now a free agent

Jack Conlon, a fourth round pick by the Orioles in this year’s draft, is now an unrestricted free agent, according to both Jim Callis and Hudson Belinsky. The O’s saw something they didn’t like in Conlon’s physical and declined to sign him. They didn’t even make him the minimum offer (40% of his slot value), which is why he’s now a free agent. MLB.com ranked the Texas high school right-hander as the 175th best prospect in the draft class. Here’s a piece of their scouting report:

Conlon can pitch at 92-95 mph with life on his fastball and back it up with an 81-84 mph slider on days when his mechanics are in sync. His changeup lags behind his other two pitches, though it has some fade and he shows some feel for it. He has a classic pitcher’s build at 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds that bodes well for his durability. Conlon lacks consistency, however, because he has a rough delivery with effort and a head whack.

There haven’t been any reports connecting Conlon to the Yankees (or any other team), and they might never come. This might be one of those situations where we skip straight to the signing announcement. I’m certain the Yankees will look into signing Conlon because hey, it’s not often you can pick up a decent pitching prospect for nothing but cash, though the failed physical is an issue. The Orioles are notoriously tough with their physicals, so maybe it’s nothing. Then again, it could be a serious arm problem, so much so that spending money on him isn’t worth the increased risk.

Also, I should note the Rays did not sign Oregon State right-hander Drew Rasmussen, the 31st selection in this year’s draft, also because something popped up in his physical. There are conflicting reports out there about his current status. Some say he’s a free agent because the Rays didn’t make the minimum offer while others say the Rays did make the minimum offer, and Rasmussen will return to school for his senior season rather than become a free agent. Who knows.

The Yankees are reportedly interested in Martin Prado and Justin Bour even though neither of them can pitch

June 29, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

We’ve officially reached trade rumor season, folks. According to Bob Nightengale, the Yankees recently reached out to the Marlins to let them know they have interest in third baseman Martin Prado and first baseman Justin Bour. The Red Sox are after Prado as well. The Marlins shipped Adeiny Hechavarria to the Rays earlier this week, which is a pretty good indication they are open for business and ready to move veterans.

A nagging hamstring injury has limited Prado, 33, to 22 games this season, during which he’s hit .276/.297/.391 (79 wRC+). He returned to the lineup last Friday. Prado spent the second half of the 2014 season with the Yankees before being sent to Miami for Nathan Eovaldi, as I’m sure you know. The 29-year-old Bour is hitting .289/.364/.564 (140 wRC+) with 18 homers in 66 games this year. Who knew? Anyway, this is our first real trade rumor of the season, so let’s talk it out.

1. Does this rumor pass the sniff test? The always important first question. There are so many rumors out there these days that it’s important to keep things in perspective. In this case, yeah, I think the rumor makes sense. We know the Yankees have been looking for a third baseman. They also need a first baseman given Greg Bird’s ongoing injury issues. The headline was a weak attempt at humor. The Yankees need bullpen help more than anything right now. That’s no reason not to pursue upgrades elsewhere on the roster though.

2. Prado is pretty darn expensive. Generally speaking, Prado is a solid hitter. Not a great hitter and not a terrible hitter. He was very good during his half-season with the Yankees and that seems to have left a lasting impression on many folks. It happens. That’s not who he is all the time though. Prado is more or less an average offensive producer at this point of his career:

Source: FanGraphs — Martin Prado

I don’t dispute that Prado is a better player than Chase Headley, and apparently the Yankees don’t dispute it either, which is why they’ve shown interest in him. The potential hang-up here is Prado’s contract. The Marlins signed him to an extension last September and he’s owed $11.5M this year, $13.5M next year, and $15M the year after that. Paying 35-year-old Martin Prado a $15M salary in 2019 doesn’t sound fun.

The Yankees are trying to get under the luxury tax in the near future (i.e. 2018) and acquiring Prado would make that more difficult. I suppose the Marlins could eat some money to facilitate a trade, though that seems unlikely, not with the Red Sox after him as well. Besides, Jeffrey Loria is trying to sell the team, so the less money he has on the books, the better. They’ll want to move Prado’s entire contract, the same way they moved Hechavarria’s entire contract.

Headley is a sunk cost at this point. The Yankees owe him his $13M salary this year and $13M salary next year no matter what. Perhaps they could unload part of it in a salary dump after acquiring Prado, though they almost certainly won’t be able to get out of all of it. Between taking on Prado’s salary and Headley’s existing contract, the Yankees would end up paying something like $25M total for two okay-ish third basemen next year. Eh.

3. Bour is a really great fit. Bour, on the other, would really fit the Yankees both now and in the future. He’s a left-handed hitter with big pull power, and that always plays well in Yankee Stadium. Bour also draws plenty of walks (10.3%) and won’t strike out a ton (22.5%). That’s more or less what the Yankee were hoping to get from Bird this season, right? A .289/.364/.564 (140 wRC+) line with 18 homers at the almost halfway point and solid strikeout and walk numbers? I’d say so.

There are, however, two big drawbacks with Bour. For starters, he probably could use a platoon partner. His numbers against lefties this season are pretty good, actually (.340/.421/.740, 198 wRC+), but that’s a sample size issue. Bour’s career numbers against lefties (.261/.323/.438, 104 wRC+) tell a different story. And two, he’s very shiftable. Here is his spray chart, via Baseball Savant:

Bour has power to all fields, yeah, but when he doesn’t hit the ball over the fence, chances are he’s going to hit it to the right side of the field. Opponents will load up their defense on the first base side of second base. Bour is among the most shifted hitters in the big leagues and that spray chart tells you why. He’s a dead pull lefty.

The Yankees used to have several players like that in their lineup. It was a problem. Now they have none with Bird on the disabled list. Acquiring Bour and carrying one pull happy lefty is no big deal. It’s okay to have one guy like that in the lineup. Putting three or four guys like that in the lineup day after day can be an issue though. The Yankees aren’t there.

As I said a few weeks ago, the Yankees should consider acquiring a new first baseman and treating this almost as a rehab year for Bird. Let him rest as much as he needs and then give him a ton of Triple-A at-bats to get his timing back. Picking up a first baseman will eliminate any sense of urgency to get Bird back to the big leagues as quickly as possible. Remember, he’s coming off shoulder surgery too. It’s not just the ankle.

Bour could step in at first base for Bird this year, provide that left-handed thump, then stick around to serve as the designated hitter (and Bird insurance) going forward. He’s under team control as an arbitration-eligible player through 2020. This isn’t a rental. The Yankee are pretty short on left-handed power going forward. It’s Bird and Didi Gregorius, and that’s pretty much it. Most of their top prospects are right-handed hitters. Bour would help balance the lineup.

4. Are we heading for a Yankees-Red Sox bidding war? I suppose it’s possible for Prado. The Red Sox are desperate for third base help, and Dave Dombrowski is not one to take half-measures. He’s going to go get a third baseman and Prado is as good a candidate as anyone. The Red Sox don’t need a first baseman or a designated hitter, so a bidding war for Bour ain’t happening.

That all said, I can’t help but feel the Marlins may be using the Yankees to jack up the price for the Red Sox. Yeah, Prado would make the Yankee better, so there’s a fit, but his contract situation complicates things. The Marlins just need it to seem plausible though. Get the Yankees involved and try to get the Red Sox to pay move. And you know what? I bet Brian Cashman would happily go along with it.

The opposite could be true too, you know. The Marlins could be using the Red Sox to drive up the price for the Yankees. That isn’t quite as believable though. Boston is all-in right now. They’re a win-now team and it stands to reason they’d more aggressively pursue Prado given their third base hole. The Yankees are still focused on their youth movement and reluctant to trade prospects. Eh, whatever.

* * *

I like the idea of the Yankees picking up Bour given the first base situation, though I don’t love adding Prado. The Yankees would be adding another okay veteran third baseman on top of the okay veteran third baseman they already have, except this one is owed more money and under contract an extra year. There’s no harm in kicking the tires because hey, the Marlins could always decide to give Prado away, but that doesn’t seem likely. Bour’s a really good fit in my opinion. I don’t consider Prado enough of an upgrade to take on that contract.