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Yankeemetrics: It is high, it is far, it is … see ya 2018

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I want to thank everyone for being such great followers, fans and readers during this unforgettable record-breaking season. Hope you enjoyed all the smart stats, #FunFacts, Obscure Yankeemetrics and other interesting numbers. Let’s Go Yankees.

(Getty)

It’s Just Not Happ-ening
In the first-ever Division Series matchup between 100-win teams, the 108-win Red Sox took the series opener, 5-4.

It was another frustrating and winnable game for the Yankees, who struck out 13 times and left 10 men on base in the one-run loss. This was the ninth time in franchise history the Yankees lost a nine-inning postseason game by a run while stranding at least 10 baserunners — and the first time ever they also struck out more than 10 times in the game.

J.A. Happ, who had been so brilliant against Boston this season (1.99 ERA in four starts) and during his entire career (2.98 ERA in 21 games), was pounded early and pulled in the third inning without recording an out, getting charged with five runs on four hits. He is the first Yankee starter in the postseason to allow at least five runs and while pitching no more than two innings since A.J. Burnett in Game 5 of the 2009 World Series against the Phillies. Before Happ, no other pitcher in franchise history had done that in the opening game of a playoff series.

The Yankee chipped away at their early 5-0 deficit but their rally fell just short as Aaron Judge’s solo homer to lead off the ninth inning was followed by three straight strikeouts to end the game. The home run was a significant one for Judge, his sixth in 15 career postseason games. The only Yankee to hit more dingers in their first 15 playoff games was Bernie Williams (7).

Giancarlo Stanton was part of the strikeout parade in the ninth inning, and finished with four whiffs in the game. A Stantonian #NotFunFact to chew on: He is the only cleanup hitter in franchise history to strike out four or more times in a postseason game.

(AP)

The Kracken Erupts
The Yankees rebounded from Game 1’s bitter loss with a fired-up, fist-pumping win on Saturday night to even the series at 1-1.

They probably couldn’t have been in a better situational spot to steal a game at Fenway, facing David Price, a perennial Yankees punching bag with a historically terrible postseason resume. And both those narratives played out perfectly for the Yankees. Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez both crushed home runs while Andrew McCutchen chipped in with a booming RBI single, before Price got the hook and was booed off the mound in the second inning. The final damage for Mr. Price: 1 2/3 innings, 3 runs, 3 hits, 2 homers, 2 walks, 0 strikeouts.

Price has now made 10 starts in the postseason and his team has lost all 10 of them. That is the longest postseason streak of team games lost in a player’s starts in MLB history.

Okay, back to the Bombers. Judge’s first-inning solo homer was his third in three games this postseason. He is the second Yankee to go deep in each of the team’s first three games to start a postseason, along with Hank Bauer in the 1958 World Series. And he also joined Bernie Williams (2001, 1996), Reggie Jackson (1977) and Bauer as the only Yankee outfielders to homer in three postseason games in a row.

(New York Times)

Sanchez’s dinger off Price was probably the least shocking part of Saturday’s game. His brief history against the lefty speaks for itself:

  • 18 plate appearances
  • 7 hits
  • 6 home runs
  • 4 walks

But Price wasn’t the only Red Sox pitcher that got schooled by Sanchez on Saturday. He pulverized an Eduardo Rodriguez fastball literally out of the ballpark. With a projected distance of 479 feet, it is the longest hit at Fenway since Statcast tracking began in 2015 and the second-longest hit in the postseason at any park over the last four years.

With his two homers, he entered into some purdy good company. He and Yogi Berra (1956 World Series Game 7) are the only Yankee catchers with a multi-homer game in the playoffs. And, at the age of 25 years and 308 days, he is the youngest catcher to homer twice in a game in MLB postseason history.

Masahiro Tanaka bounced back from a couple bad starts to the end the season with another postseason gem, giving up one run — via the #obligatoryhomer — in five innings. He now owns a 1.50 playoff ERA, the fifth-lowest by any pitcher with at least five playoff starts.

Lowest Postseason ERA (min. 5 Starts)
ERA Games
Sandy Koufax 0.95 8
Christy Mathewson 0.97 11
Eddie Plank 1.32 7
Bill Hallahan 1.36 7
Masahiro Tanaka 1.50 5

Nightmare on River Avenue
There really are no words that can capture the utter humiliation, indescribable embarrassment and overwhelming atrocity that was Game 3 in the Bronx on Monday night. Mike did an excellent job summing up the terrible managerial mistakes from the 16-1 loss, I’ll just present here the cold hard ugly facts.

  • 15-run loss is the largest margin of defeat in postseason game in franchise history
  • It is also the most lopsided loss for any team in a postseason game at home
  • 16 runs allowed are the most ever by a Yankee team in a postseason game
  • 16 runs allowed are the most ever in postseason game for any team that gave up no more than one homer
  • Austin Romine is first catcher in MLB history to pitch in a postseason game; the only other position player to do it was Blue Jays infielder Cliff Pennington in the 2015 ALCS Game 5 against the Royals
  • Summing up the pitching mess … Yankees are first team in Major-League history to give up at least 16 runs, 18 hits and eight walks in a postseason game

And mercifully, we close this section with our #NotFunFact of the series, awarded to Luis Severino:

End of the Chase For 28
It’s a game of inches, and the Yankees were just a few short in Tuesday night’s 4-3 loss. Folks, I hope you’re sitting down for this series-ending Obscure Yankeemetric … It was the 14th time the Yankees have been eliminated from the postseason at home, but the first time it happened in a one-run game at the Stadium with the winning run on base when the game ended. Welp.

(Newsday)

For the second straight night, Yankees found themselves in early hole, after CC Sabathia allowed three runs in the first three innings, a rare mediocre outing for him given his postseason track record in the Bronx. This was his eighth playoff start at home as a Yankee, and the first one that he gave up more than two runs. His 1.61 ERA in his previous seven home postseason starts was the second-best by any Yankee (min. 4 starts).

Zach Britton coughed up the fourth run via a 338-foot homer by Christian Vazquez that barely cleared the short porch in right field. It was the first homer Britton has allowed to a No. 9 batter in his career. And, according to ESPN’s home run tracking system, it would not have been a home run at any of the other 29 ballparks. A true ‘Yankee Stadium Special’, served up at the worst possible moment:

In a season where #toomanyhomers was a nightly trend on Yankees twitter, the team failed to go deep in the fateful final two games. The only other time this season the Bombers were homerless in back-to-back games in the Bronx was April 7 and 8 against the Orioles, the fifth and sixth home games of the season. That’s baseball, Suzyn.

Yankees and Red Sox announce 2018 ALDS rosters

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(Getty)

This morning was the deadline for the Yankees and Red Sox to submit their 25-man ALDS rosters to MLB, and, shortly thereafter, the two clubs announced them officially. Yesterday Aaron Boone more or less confirmed the entire roster and it is as expected. No surprises.

Here is each team’s 25-man active roster for the ALDS, which begins later tonight:

NEW YORK YANKEES

Pitchers (12)
RHP Dellin Betances
LHP Zach Britton
LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Chad Green
LHP J.A. Happ (Game 1 starter)
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Lance Lynn
RHP David Robertson
LHP CC Sabathia
RHP Luis Severino
RHP Masahiro Tanaka (Game 2 starter)
LHP Stephen Tarpley

Catchers (2)
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

Infielders (6)
Miguel Andujar
Didi Gregorius
Adeiny Hechavarria
Gleyber Torres
Luke Voit
Neil Walker

Outfielders (5)
Brett Gardner
Aaron Hicks
Aaron Judge
Andrew McCutchen
Giancarlo Stanton

BOSTON RED SOX

Pitchers (11)
RHP Matt Barnes
RHP Ryan Brasier
RHP Nathan Eovaldi (Game 4 starter)
RHP Joe Kelly
RHP Craig Kimbrel
RHP Rick Porcello (Game 3 starter)
LHP David Price (Game 2 starter)
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
LHP Chris Sale (Game 1 starter)
RHP Brandon Workman
RHP Steven Wright

Catchers (3)
Sandy Leon
Blake Swihart (UTIL)
Christian Vazquez

Infielders (7)
Xander Bogaerts
Rafael Devers
Brock Holt (IF/OF)
Ian Kinsler
Mitch Moreland
Eduardo Nunez
Steve Pearce (1B/OF)

Outfielders (4)
Andrew Benintendi
Mookie Betts
Jackie Bradley Jr.
J.D. Martinez

The Yankees dropped Kyle Higashioka and Tyler Wade from their Wild Card Game roster and added Sabathia and Tarpley. They’re carrying four starters, eight relievers, and a four-man bench. Normally, eight relievers in a postseason series is overkill, especially since they’re not going to play more than two days in a row. Yanks vs. Sox games tend to get wild though. The extra reliever could come in handy.

The five-man bench: Gardner, Hechavarria, Romine, and Walker. It’s worth noting Gardner (left field), Hechavarria (third base), and Walker (first base) all came in for defense in the late innings of the Wild Card Game. I wonder if that will continue to be the case going forward. I guess it depends on the score. The Yankees might hold Gardner back for a pinch-running situation in a close game. We’ll see.

Middle relief has been a season-long problem for the Red Sox and they’re going to try to patch that up with Rodriguez this postseason. Also, Eovaldi was told to prepare to pitch in relief in Game One. Wright is a starter by trade as well. Red Sox manager Alex Cora was the Astros bench coach last year, when they expertly used starters like Lance McCullers, Brad Peacock, and Charlie Morton in relief in the postseason. I suspect he’ll look to do the same with the Red Sox this year.

ALDS Game One begins tonight at 7:30pm ET. As expected, the Yankees and Red Sox games drew the primetime slots. All five ALDS games will begin somewhere between 7:30pm ET and 8:10pm ET. The entire series will be broadcast on TBS.

Yankees, Athletics announce 2018 Wild Card Game rosters

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(Presswire)

Earlier this morning both the Yankees and Athletics announced their 25-man active rosters for tonight’s AL Wild Card Game. We were able to piece together the Yankees’ roster based on information from yesterday’s workout. The roster is as expected. No surprises.

Here are the two 25-man rosters for tonight’s winner-take-all game. Turns out I did a pretty good job projecting it last week:

NEW YORK YANKEES

Pitchers (10)
RHP Dellin Betances
LHP Zach Britton
LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Chad Green
LHP J.A. Happ
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Lance Lynn
RHP David Robertson
RHP Luis Severino
RHP Masahiro Tanaka

Catchers (3)
Kyle Higashioka
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

Infielders (7)
Miguel Andujar
Didi Gregorius
Adeiny Hechavarria
Gleyber Torres
Luke Voit
Tyler Wade
Neil Walker

Outfielders (5)
Brett Gardner
Aaron Hicks
Aaron Judge
Andrew McCutchen
Giancarlo Stanton

OAKLAND ATHLETICS

Pitchers (11)
LHP Ryan Buchter
RHP Jeurys Familia
RHP Liam Hendriks
RHP Edwin Jackson
RHP Shawn Kelley
RHP Emilio Pagan
RHP Yusmeiro Petit
RHP Fernando Rodney
RHP Blake Treinen
RHP Lou Trivino
RHP J.B. Wendelken

Catchers (2)
Jonathan Lucroy
Josh Phegley

Infielders (6)
Franklin Barreto
Matt Chapman
Jed Lowrie
Matt Olson
Chad Pinder (IF/OF)
Marcus Semien

Outfielders (6)
Mark Canha (1B/OF)
Khris Davis
Matt Joyce
Ramon Laureano
Nick Martini
Stephen Piscotty

Notably absent: Greg Bird, CC Sabathia, and Stephen Tarpley. Sabathia being excluded from the roster isn’t a surprise. At this point, he’s not one of the ten best pitchers on the staff, especially when you consider he’d have to pitch in an unfamiliar relief role. Tarpley was said to be in the mix for a bullpen spot. Ultimately, the A’s only have one hitter (Olson) who needs a left-on-left specialist, and he’d be pinch-hit for instantly by Canha, a lefty crusher. Tarpley didn’t have much of a purpose.

As for Bird, I am a bit surprised he’s not on the Wild Card Game roster only because the Yankees love him. That said, he hasn’t hit at all this season, and he offers no defensive versatility or baserunning value. His only role would be as a pinch-hitting option who could maybe park one in the short porch, and who’s getting lifted for a pinch-hitter? No one in the starting lineup. The Yankees opted for Wade (pinch-runner) and Hechavarria (Andujar’s defensive caddy) over Bird. Can’t blame them.

The Athletics are really going all in on the bullpen game, huh? Jackson is the only actual starting pitcher on the roster and I assume he is their emergency extra innings guy. Their bench is sneaky good. Canha crushes lefties and Joyce is a fine lefty platoon bat who could take aim at the right field porch. Pinder, a right-handed hitter, hit 13 homers with a 111 wRC+ as a part-timer this year, and he played every position other than pitcher and catcher. A’s manager Bob Melvin could get creative with his bench.

Severino and Hendriks (an opener) are starting the Wild Card Game tonight. The game is scheduled to begin a little after 8pm ET and it’ll be broadcast on TBS. Winner moves on to play the Red Sox in the ALDS. Loser goes home.

Luis Severino to start 2018 AL Wild Card Game

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(Presswire)

It is official: Luis Severino will start the 2018 AL Wild Card Game tomorrow night. Aaron Boone made the announcement at this afternoon’s workout at Yankee Stadium. “I think he’s ready for this. Hopefully he can get us off to a good start tomorrow. When he’s pitching at his best, he’ll be the best pitcher on the field tomorrow,” said Boone.

Severino last pitched last Tuesday, so he’ll go into the Wild Card Game on seven days rest. He’s thrown two bullpens since then to prepare for tomorrow’s start. The Yankees skipped Severino’s start Sunday — he didn’t even throw a token tune-up inning or anything — which was a pretty good indication he would get the ball in the Wild Card Game.

“It means a lot that they trust me,” Severino said this afternoon. “I feel rested. I feel like I can do a good job … I just want to win. If I go four innings and the bullpen comes in and gets it done, (I don’t care). I just want to win and move on.”

Three weeks ago RAB readers picked Masahiro Tanaka to start the Wild Card Game, but that was three weeks ago. Things change. I felt the Yankees wanted to start Severino in the Wild Card Game all along, and, after closing out the regular season with two strong starts, he made it an easy call for the brain trust. The Yankees are going with their most talented pitcher.

Severino of course started the Wild Card Game last season, and it was a disaster. Three runs and one out. The 2018 Athletics are much better than the 2017 Twins, and the A’s did put a hurtin’ on Severino last month (six runs in 2.2 innings), but he is the Yankees’ best chance at a dominant bat-missing start. How long will his leash be? I guess we’ll find out.

The Yankees and Athletics do not have to submit their official Wild Card Game rosters until tomorrow morning. Here are some other notes from today’s workout:

  • Tanaka, J.A. Happ, and Lance Lynn will all be on the Wild Card Game roster, Boone announced. They’re going to carry ten pitchers. Kyle Higashioka and Tyler Wade will be on the roster as well. Wade will be the designated pinch-runner. Based on the math, it appears Greg Bird and Ronald Torreyes will not be on the Wild Card Game roster.
  • Stephen Tarpley is still with the Yankees — that’s not nothing, most September call-ups are sent home after the end of the regular season — and he told Lindsey Adler he does not expect to be on the Wild Card Game roster. He is likely to be on the ALDS roster should the Yankees advance, however. That makes sense. Matt Olson is the only LOOGY worthy hitter in the A’s lineup and he’d be lifted for pinch-hitter Mark Canha (152 wRC+ vs. LHP).
  • Sonny Gray is not on the Wild Card Game roster. “I’m just hanging out,” he told Susan Slusser. No surprise here. Gray pitched too poorly for too long to be on the roster. That said, he’ll remain with the Yankees in case an injury replacement is needed at some point this postseason.

Based on today’s information, it appears this will be the 25-man roster the Yankees take into the Wild Card Game. Again, the official roster does not have to be submitted until tomorrow morning.

Catchers (3) Infielders (7) Outfielders (5) Starters (4) Relievers (6)
Sanchez Andujar Gardner Happ Betances
Romine Gregorius Hicks Lynn Britton
Higashioka Hechavarria Judge Severino Chapman
Torres McCutchen Tanaka Green
Voit Stanton Holder
Wade Robertson
Walker

The Athletics have not yet announced their starting pitcher for tomorrow’s game — we should find that out later today, when they have their workout at Yankee Stadium — though all indications are they will bullpen the game. Liam Hendriks is the obvious candidate to be the opener.

Update: Hendriks is indeed starting (opening) for the Athletics tomorrow, the team announced. It’s likely to be a one inning and done appearance like pretty much all his starts down the stretch.

Yankeemetrics: Smackdown at Tropicana Field (Sept. 24-27)

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(AP)

Battle of the Bullpens
In an series-opening “bullpen game”, the Yankees gave the Rays a taste of their own medicine with a 4-1 win on Monday. They used eight pitchers to get 27 outs and the results were bueno: two hits, one run and 13 strikeouts.

Sonny Gray was the lone guy that went more than one inning, and he also was the only one that allowed a hit while surrendering the one run. So we had seven pitchers who didn’t give up a hit … sounds like a #FunFact! Yes, the seven “hitless” pitchers is a franchise record for a single game.

And when you add in the fact that each of those seven guys went at least one inning … the Yankees are just the second team in MLB history to have at least seven players allow no hits while each pitching at least one inning in a game. Unsurprisingly, the only other instance came this season — two weeks prior to Monday’s game — when the Angels did it against the Rangers on September 11.

The other important statistical note from this game came in the eighth when Dellin Betances tossed a perfect frame with two groundouts and popout. What, no strikeout? Slacker, Dellin. That snapped his 44-game streak with at least one punchout, the longest streak by a relief pitcher in AL history, and one game shy of the second-longest single-season streak in MLB history set last year by Brewers reliever Corey Knebel. During the streak he struck out 44 percent of the batters he faced and had more than three times as many strikeouts as hits allowed.

El Kracken is Awaken
Gary Sanchez’s bat woke up momentarily on Tuesday, fueling a 9-2 win that moved the Yankees to 37 games above .500, a season-high mark and their most games above the redline since the end of the 2009 regular season (44 games, 103-59).

Sanchez was on base three times, with a walk, home run and a single, and drove in a season-high-tying four runs. Prior to this game, he had just six RBI in 19 games since coming off the DL on September 1.

(AP)

There is no sugar-coating Sanchez’s awful season, but there is one glimmer of optimism if you squint really hard. On the rare occasion that he does get a hit, he makes it count. With his homer on Tuesday, an astounding 56.9 percent (33 of 58) of his hits have gone for extra-bases. That would be the third-highest rate of extra-base hits per hit among the more than 1,000 player-seasons in Yankees history with at least 300 plate appearances. The two ahead of him: Babe Ruth in 1920 (57.6%) and Babe Ruth in 1921 (58.3%).

Luis Severino had a good-but-not-great outing, but he did provide a nice record-breaking note for us Yankeemetricians: His seven strikeouts gave him 450 since the start of 2017, the most ever by a Yankee pitcher in a two-season span. The previous record was set by Ron Guidry, when he struck out 449 guys spanning the 1978-79 seasons.

(USA Today)

Seven is not enough
On the verge of inching closer to homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game next week, the Yankees delivered one of their patented “snatch defeat from the jaws of victory” games, losing 8-7 on Wednesday after blowing an early 3-0 lead.

Neil Walker put the Yankees on the board first, drilling a three-run homer in the top of the opening frame. After hitting three homers in his first 73 games (225 at-bats), he has eight homers in his last 38 games (116 at-bats). Each of his last five homers have given the Yankees a lead:

David Robertson put the game out of reach when he suffered a rare meltdown in the eighth inning, allowing five of the six batters he faced to reach base, with four of them coming around to score. It’s the first time in more than eight years that he allowed at least four runs while getting no more than one out in a game. That last time he did that was April 13, 2010 against the Angels; and the only other time he did it in his career was during his first month in the big leagues, on July 28, 2008 against the Orioles.

(AP)

Blowout wins are awesome
The Yankees capped off the series in Tampa with an ultra-satisfying 12-1 rout on Thursday, winning their first series at Tropicana Field in two years (September 20-22, 2016).

The bats exploded for 13 hits, including four #toomanyhomers, increasing their season total to 260 dingers. That’s tied with the 2005 Rangers for the second-most in a single season in MLB history and four shy of the record held by the 1997 Mariners. Now they get a chance to break the record this weekend … three games at Fenway … oh how sweet that would be.

They pounded the Rays early and often, racing out to an early 4-0 lead thanks to a #MiggyMantle three-run homer in the top of the first inning, his 27th of the season. It also gave him 90 RBI, and combined with his 43 doubles, he has put himself in some elite company. Andujar is one of seven rookies in MLB history to reach each of those totals — 90 RBI, 43 doubles and 27 homers — in a season:

  • Miguel Andujar (2018)
  • Albert Pujols (2001)
  • Nomar Garciaparra (1997)
  • Tony Oliva (1964)
  • Ted Williams (1939)
  • Joe DiMaggio (1936)
  • Hal Trosky (1934)

The Rookie of the Year award was first handed out in 1947; Pujols, Garciappara and Oliva — the other three besides Andujar to make this list since 1947 — each took home the ROY trophy in those years.

CC Sabathia delivered a masterful vintage performance in (probably) his final appearance of the regular season. He allowed one hit while striking out five over five scoreless innings, before getting ejected in the sixth following a revenge-plunking of Rays catcher Jesus Sucre. That lowered his ERA to 3.65 and upped his strikeout total to 140 this year. Only three other pitchers Yankee history have finished with that many strikeouts and that low an ERA in their age-37 season or older: Roger Clemens (2001), Mike Mussina (2006, 2008) and Hiroki Kuroda (2012, 2013).

Building the 2018 Wild Card Game roster

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(Mike Stobe/Getty)

With four days to go in the 2018 regular season, we know one thing for certain: The Yankees will play the Athletics in the 2018 AL Wild Card Game next Wednesday. The game will likely be played in Yankee Stadium, though that is not set in stone yet. The magic number for homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game is two. The Yankees-Athletics matchup is set though.

The Wild Card Game is its own postseason round. The Yankees and A’s will set a 25-man roster for the Wild Card Game, then whichever team advances will be able to set a new 25-man roster for the ALDS. Because of that, we’ve seen some funky wildcard rosters in recent years. The Yankees carried only nine pitchers on their 2015 Wild Card Game roster. Last year they carried ten. That means a great big bench.

So, with the Wild Card Game now only six days away, this is as good a time as any to try to piece together the 25-man roster the Yankees will carry next Wednesday. It’s a bummer the Yankees are going to finish with 100-ish wins and have to play in a winner-take-all Wild Card Game, but hey, if you don’t like it, win more games. Let’s dig into the potential Wild Card Game roster.

The Locks

Might as well start here. The way I see it, the Yankees have 17 players who are absolute locks for the Wild Card Game roster right now. The 17:

  • Catchers (2): Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez
  • Infielders (5): Miguel Andujar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, Neil Walker
  • Outfielders (4): Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton
  • Pitchers (6): Dellin Betances, Zach Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Jonathan Holder, David Robertson

I was initially on the fence about Hechavarria, but the more I thought about it, the more I realized he’s going to make the Wild Card Game roster. Worst case scenario is he serves as Andujar’s defensive replacement. The rest is pretty straightforward though, right? Right. We still have eight roster spots to fill, so let’s get to it.

Locks, If Healthy

Didi Gregorius is out with torn cartilage in his right wrist and he could play in games before the end of the season. He got the okay to resume baseball activities yesterday, so that’s good. If he’s able to play this weekend and has no problems, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster. If not, it opens up the possibility for Ronald Torreyes to make the roster. The Gregorius/Torreyes spot is our 18th player.

Aaron Hicks, meanwhile, has a tight left hamstring and is day-to-day. He too could play before the regular season ends, and, if that happens, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster as well. If Hicks can’t play in the Wild Card Game, I think Tyler Wade makes it instead. Wade can play the outfield, if necessary, but more importantly he can run. No Hicks on the roster means Gardner is in center field rather than on the bench as a pinch-running option. With Hicks out, Wade becomes the pinch-runner. The Hicks/Wade spot is our 19th player.

The Starting Pitcher(s)

We still don’t know who will start the Wild Card Game. Aaron Boone has indicated the decision could come soon and he’s made it pretty clear it’ll be either J.A. Happ, Luis Severino, or Masahiro Tanaka. The Yankees aren’t going to do a straight bullpen game. Two weeks ago RAB readers wanted Tanaka to start the Wild Card Game. I think the Yankees want it to be Severino. Happ is a perfectly fine candidate as well.

At the moment Happ is lined up to start the Wild Card Game on normal rest and Tanaka with two extra days of rest. Severino would be on three extra days of rest, though he could wind up starting Game 162 should the Yankees need to win that game to clinch homefield advantage. Hopefully it doesn’t come down to that. Based on the way things are set up now, all three guys will be available to start the Wild Card Game. That’s not an accident. The Yankees made sure they had options.

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Instead of focusing on names, let’s focus on roster spots. The Yankees carried three starting pitchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Tanaka, Ivan Nova) and three starting pitchers on the 2017 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Sonny Gray, CC Sabathia). I expect them to carry three starting pitchers again this year. That gives the Yankees:

  • The starting pitcher.
  • An emergency guy for extra innings.
  • An emergency emergency guy in case there’s an injury or things really go haywire.

It is entirely possible Happ, Severino, and Tanaka will all be on the Wild Card Game roster even though only one guy is starting the game. Or it’s possible Happ and Severino are on the roster with Lance Lynn, who has bullpen experience, replacing Tanaka. I don’t think the Yankees would carry Sabathia as a reliever at this point, but it can’t be ruled out. Gray? Eh. Seems like a worst case scenario.

I suspect that, unless he has to start Game 162 on Sunday, Severino will be on the Wild Card Game roster. Even if he doesn’t start the Wild Card Game, he could be another bullpen option. Heck, he might be on the roster even if he starts Game 162. The Wild Card Game would be Severino’s throw day and he could give you an inning or two out of the bullpen. Yeah, one way or the other, I think Severino’s on the roster. He’s our 20th player.

My hunch is both Happ and Tanaka will be on the roster as well. I was thinking maybe the Yankees would carry Lynn instead of one of those two because he has bullpen experience, but I keep going back to Brian Cashman saying it is “all hands on deck for that one game,” and Happ and Tanaka are objectively better than Lynn. The bullpen experience is nice. I don’t think it trumps effectiveness. Happ and Tanaka are the 21st and 22nd players (and eighth and ninth pitchers) on our roster.

The Last Bullpen Spot

Whoever starts the Wild Card Game, that guy will be on a very short leash. It could devolve into a bullpen game rather quickly. For both teams. Because of that, I think the Yankees will carry ten pitchers on the Wild Card Game roster like last season, rather than nine like in 2015. I wouldn’t rule out an 11th pitcher, honestly. I’m going to stick with ten though. That seems like plenty for a one-game scenario.

With Happ, Severino, and Tanaka joining the six late-game relievers, we are left with eleven candidates for the final pitching spot: Gray, Lynn, Sabathia, Chance Adams, Luis Cessa, A.J. Cole, Domingo German, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga, Justus Sheffield, and Stephen Tarpley. I think we can rule out Adams, German, Loaisiga, and Sheffield right now. They would’ve gotten a longer look this month if they were Wild Card Game candidates.

Tarpley has gotten some run lately as a left-on-left guy and the other night Boone told Erik Boland that Tarpley has put himself “in the conversation” for the Wild Card Game roster. Since his ugly big league debut, Tarpley has thrown 5.2 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts, and lefties are 1-for-11 (.091) with five strikeouts against him. In the minors this year Tarpley held left-handed batters to a .141/.213/.183 line with a 29.4% strikeout rate. Really good!

There is one reason to carry Tarpley on the Wild Card Game roster: Matt Olson. Oakland’s lefty swinging first baseman went into last night’s game hitting .247/.338/.496 (128 wRC+) against righties and .251/.329/.369 (96 wRC+) against lefties. He’s someone you can LOOGY. That said, if you bring in a lefty for Olson, A’s manager Bob Melvin will counter with righty swinging Mark Canha, who’s hitting .274/.331/.596 (148 wRC+) against southpaws. Melvin’s been doing it all year.

In a high-leverage situation — is there such a thing as a low-leverage situation in a game as important as the Wild Card Game? — I’d rather have one of the regular late-inning relievers facing Olson than Tarpley facing Canha. All the late-inning guys have good numbers against lefties. I have a hard time envisioning a scenario in which Tarpley faces Olson/Canha in the middle (or late) innings rather than one of the usual late-inning guys. Worrying about the platoon matchup there seems like paralysis by analysis. Overthinking it.

I’m tossing Tarpley into the maybe pile right now. A good series against Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, and Rafael Devers this weekend would really help his cause. For our purposes, we’re down to Cessa, Cole, Gray, Kahnle, Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley for the final bullpen spot. Hard pass on Gray and Cole. They’ve pitched too poorly for too long. Can’t see it being Cessa either. Kahnle was excellent in the Wild Card Game (and postseason) last year …

… but that was 2017 Tommy Kahnle. 2018 Kahnle is not 2017 Kahnle. 2017 Kahnle would be on the Wild Card Game roster no questions asked. 2018 Tommy Kahnle? Nah. So we’re left with Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley. So maybe it will be Tarpley? Either way, we’re talking about the last guy in the bullpen, someone who won’t pitch in the Wild Card Game unless things go really crazy. I’d take Lynn. Tarpley has a shot. Whoever it is, this is our tenth pitcher and 23rd player on the roster.

The Rest of the Bench

A ten-man pitching staff means a six-man bench. Romine gets one bench spot. (No, Romine shouldn’t start the Wild Card Game.) Another spot goes to Wade (Hicks out) or Gardner (Hicks in). If Gregorius plays, both Hechavarria and Walker are on the bench. If Gregorius does not play, either Hechavarria or Walker is in the starting lineup and the other is on the bench. Depending on Didi, either three or four bench spots are already claimed. There are four candidates for the remaining bench spots. The four and their potential roles:

  • Greg Bird: Lefty bench bat
  • Kyle Higashioka: Third catcher
  • Ronald Torreyes (if Gregorius is in): Utility infielder
  • Tyler Wade (if Hicks is in): Utility guy and speedster

The big name bench candidate is Bird. We know Voit is starting at first base in the Wild Card Game, even against a right-handed pitcher. He’s been too good and Bird’s been too bad. The question is this: What would Bird provide the Yankees? A backup first baseman and a lefty bench bat who could take aim at the short porch? Sure. But Walker could do that too, and Bird offers zero defensive versatility.

Then again, if Gregorius is unable to play in the Wild Card Game, Walker would presumably start at second base — it would be either Gleyber at short and Walker at second, or Hechavarria at short and Gleyber at second — thus leaving the Yankees without a backup first baseman/lefty bat on the bench. Given his performance, leaving Bird off the Wild Card Game roster would be completely justifiable. I still think he’ll be on. The Yankees love him and they have the spare bench spots. I hereby declare Bird our 24th player.

Don’t dismiss Higashioka as a Wild Card Game roster candidate. His presence would allow the Yankees to pinch-run for Sanchez without worrying about Romine potentially getting hurt. Or they could pinch-hit for Sanchez in a big spot. I wouldn’t do it and I don’t think the Yankees would, but it would be an option. The Yankees only had two catchers on the roster last year because Sanchez was the man and he wasn’t coming out of the game. They did carry three catchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster though (Sanchez, Brian McCann, John Ryan Murphy).

Right now we have a 24-man roster that includes either Gregorius or Torreyes, and either Hicks or Wade. This is starting to get confusing. Let’s recap everything. This is how I think the bench and 25-man Wild Card Game roster shakes out:

Catchers Infielders Outfielders Starters Relievers
Sanchez Andujar Gardner Happ Betances
Romine Bird Judge Severino Britton
Hechavarria McCutchen Tanaka Chapman
Torres Stanton Green
Voit Hicks/Wade Holder
Walker Robertson
Didi/Toe Lynn/Tarpley

Those are 24 roster spots. Ten pitchers and 14 position players. The Gregorius and Hicks injuries are the x-factors. There are three scenarios here with regards to the 25th roster spot:

  • Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt: Torreyes and Wade both make it, and the Yankees carry either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher.
  • Only one of Gregorius or Hicks is healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, Torreyes and Wade both make it.
  • Gregorius and Hicks are both healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, only one of Torreyes or Wade makes it.

If both Gregorius and Hicks are healthy — and we all hope that is the case — I think Wade makes the Wild Card Game roster over Torreyes because he’s more versatile and his speed could really come in handy in a late-inning pinch-running situation. If both Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt, the Yankees are kinda stuck. It’s either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher at that point.

The position player side of the Wild Card Game roster is going to depend on the health of Gregorius and Hicks. On the pitching side, the Yankees can pick and choose who they want. We know the six end-game relievers will be there. The Yankees are likely to carry three starters, no matter who they end up being. Do they carry Tarpley? That might be the most interesting Wild Card Game roster question.

The Yankees and 2018’s major awards

by

(Mike Stobe/Getty)

There are five days to go in the regular season and, at some point in the next seven days, the various voting members of the BBWAA will have to submit their ballots for the major awards. Ballots are submitted after the regular season but before the postseason. MVP and Cy Young and all that are regular season awards. The postseason is not a factor.

In recent years the voting body has done a better job handing out the awards, and by that I mean the voting results have aligned closely with my hypothetical ballot. The Yankees have several awards candidates this year — not as many as last year, but definitely a few — and could have someone walk away with some hardware. Let’s break down the awards races with only a handful of regular season games remaining.

Most Valuable Player

Aaron Judge’s wrist injury removed him from the MVP conversation. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him get some eighth or ninth or tenth place votes, but, as far as being a true MVP candidate, missing two months put an end to that. The AL MVP award will likely go to Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Jose Ramirez, Alex Bregman, or J.D. Martinez. Khris Davis and Matt Chapman will get some love as well. Those are the top MVP candidates at the moment.

With Judge out of he mix, the Yankees don’t have a bona fide MVP candidate, which is kinda weird for a team with a chance to win 100+ games. Giancarlo Stanton’s had a good but not great year, Didi Gregorius had a brutal May and has missed time with injuries, Aaron Hicks doesn’t seem high-profile enough, and Luis Severino slumped terribly in the second half. Miguel Andujar or Gleyber Torres? I bet they get some down ballot votes., especially Andujar.

Unlike last season, when Judge was right there with Jose Altuve, the Yankees don’t have a legitimate MVP candidate this year. They might not even have anyone finish in the top ten of the voting. The last time that happened was 2016. The last time it happened in a year the Yankees made the postseason was … 2015. I would’ve guessed the last time that happened was much further back. Apparently not.

Cy Young

Man, Severino was so good in the first half. He went into the All-Star break ranked fifth in the AL in ERA (2.31), third in FIP (2.74), seventh in strikeout rate (28.7%), sixth in K/BB ratio (4.50), and fourth in WAR (+4.1). The second half slump knocked him down a peg:

  • ERA: 3.39 (9th in AL)
  • FIP: 2.95 (4th)
  • Strikeout rate: 28.2% (8th)
  • K/BB ratio: 4.78 (4th)
  • WAR: +5.7 (5th)

The second half skid doomed Severino’s Cy Young chances. Others like Blake Snell, Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Justin Verlander, and Gerrit Cole have been so good that Severino might not even get a fifth place vote. (The Cy Young ballot runs five names deep.) Lame, but when you pitch as poorly as Severino did for as long as Severino did, you can’t expect Cy Young votes.

Aside from Severino, I think the only pitcher on the staff with a chance to get a Cy Young vote is Dellin Betances. Masahiro Tanaka labored in the first half, Aroldis Chapman has been hurt and ineffective in the second half, and David Robertson hasn’t had a “reliever who deserves Cy Young attention” season. Betances might’ve. He has received Cy Young votes before — one fifth place vote in 2015, to be precise — and it could happen again. I’d bet against it. Decent chance the Yankees are completely shut out of the Cy Young voting this year.

Rookie of the Year

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Now we’re talking. The Yankees had the Rookie of the Year runner-up two years ago (Gary Sanchez) and the unanimous Rookie of the Year last year (Judge). They could have the Rookie of the Year winner and runner-up this year thanks to Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres. The last team with the first and second place finishers in the Rookie of the Year voting is the 2011 Braves with Craig Kimbrel and Freddie Freeman. The last AL team to do it is the 1984 Mariners with Alvin Davis and Mark Langston.

Now here’s where I be a jerk and say Shohei Ohtani is almost certainly going to win Rookie of the Year. And he wouldn’t be an unreasonable pick! Ohtani is hitting .280/.360/.559 (151 wRC+) with 21 homers in 351 plate appearances, and, before his elbow injury, he threw 51.2 innings with a 3.31 ERA (3.56 FIP) and 63 strikeouts. That is ridiculously good! The AL rookie WAR leaderboard:

FanGraphs WAR
1. Shohei Ohtani: +3.6
2. Joey Wendle: +3.6
3. Miguel Andujar: +2.6
4. Brad Keller: +2.5
5. Shane Bieber: +2.4
6. Gleyber Torres: +2.1

Baseball Reference WAR
1. Joey Wendle: +4.4
2. Shohei Ohtani: +3.8
3. Brad Keller: +3.6
4. Gleyber Torres: +2.9
5. Jaime Barria: +2.4
6. Miguel Andujar: +2.1

Wendle ain’t winning Rookie of the Year. You have a few weeks to prepare yourself to be angry when Wendle gets a handful of third place votes instead of Andujar or Gleyber, but he’s not winning. Fair or not, there is a narrative component to these awards, and Wendle has zero narrative going for him. He’s a 28-year-old rookie who was designated for assignment over the winter and is getting a WAR boost because the defensive stats still don’t handle multi-position guys well.

Anyway, Ohtani has the numbers and the narrative. He’s been incredible. He’s a top ten hitter on a rate basis and he was very good when on the mound. Doing one thing well is hard. Ohtani is doing both well. Can he overcome the lack of playing time? Andujar has 583 plate appearances. Torres has 465 plate appearances. Ohtani is at 351 plate appearances as a hitter plus 211 batters faced as a pitcher (562 combined). The offensive numbers side-by-side:

  • Ohtani: .280/.360/.559 (151 wRC+) and 21 homers
  • Andujar: .298/.329/.525 (128 wRC+) and 26 homers
  • Torres: .276/.345/.484 (122 wRC+) and 23 homers

Even with the injury, Ohtani has more than lived up to the hype, and it’s an incredible story. I fully expect him to win Rookie of the Year and I don’t think it would be undeserved. And I expect Andujar and Torres to finish second and third in the voting, in either order. That’s still really cool. I mean, you could rank these three guys in any order and I’m not sure it’d be “wrong.”

There is no shame in finishing behind Ohtani. The Yankees will be the first AL team with two top three finishers in the Rookie of the Year voting since the 2013 Rays (Wil Myers and Chris Archer).

Manager of the Year

Last season only four AL managers received Manager of the Year votes. Two years ago it was six. The year before that it was seven and the year before that it was seven as well. Nearly half the league! This year the Manager of the Year award figures to go one of three managers: Kevin Cash, Alex Cora, or Bob Melvin. The Red Sox are having a historic year and that’ll undoubtedly get Cora votes. The A’s are a surprise contender and that usually equals Manager of the Year votes. The same applies to the Rays and Cash.

As for Aaron Boone, everyone expected the Yankees to be good this season and the Yankees have been good this season, if not underwhelming in the second half. A team expected to be good having a good year — and not a historically great year like the Red Sox — usually doesn’t earn a skipper many Manager of the Year votes. There are 30 Manager of the Year ballots and three spots per ballot. How many of those 90 spots go to Boone? Three or four, tops? I’m not sure he even gets that many. The last Yankees manager to win Manager of the Year was Joe Torre in 1998. That won’t change this year.

Comeback Player of the Year

The Yankees don’t have a Comeback Player of the Year candidate. This usually goes to a guy who missed most (or all) of the previous season with an injury and the Yankees don’t have anyone like that. Maybe Betances would get some Comeback Player of the Year attention? I doubt it. As bad as he was down the stretch last year, he had a 2.64 ERA (3.23 FIP) and was an All-Star last season. My guess is Matt Duffy will be named Comeback Player of the Year considering he’s hitting .294/.360/.366 (106 wRC+) at the moment and played 91 total games from 2016-17 (zero in 2017) due to an Achilles injury.

Gold Gloves

The Gold Glove selection process has improved in recent years — there’s a statistical component now and there doesn’t seem to be as much reliance on reputation — and I’m not sure the Yankees have a Gold Glove candidate. Judge missed too much time and he wouldn’t beat out Betts anyway. Hicks is a good defensive center fielder but also probably no better than the fourth best defensive center fielder in his own division. Gregorius has to contend with Andrelton Simmons and Francisco Lindor. Gardner? Meh. The Yankees’ best hope for a Gold Glove is probably Tanaka. He’s an excellent fielder. But yeah, bot seeing a Gold Glove in the 2018 Yankees’ future.

* * *

As far as the Yankees are concerned, all the intrigue this award season will revolve around Rookie of the Year. They don’t have a serious MVP or Cy Young candidate, but Andujar and Torres are right in the Rookie of the Year mix. Beating out Ohtani won’t be easy. Maybe even impossible! But I do expect those two to finish in the top three of the voting somewhere. Three straight seasons with top Rookie of the Year candidates is pretty cool. Hopefully Justus Sheffield makes it four straight next year.