Ryan Madson Archives - River Avenue Blues

Scouting the Free Agent Market: The Reclamation Projects

December 11, 2018 by Domenic Lanza

As we enter the Winter Meetings, the Yankees are still searching for two relievers to replace Zach Britton and David Robertson. I previously wrote about Kelvin Herrera, Andrew Miller, Jeurys Familia, and Adam Ottavino. Today I’m going to shift gears a bit, and focus on pitchers that had substandard years without the benefit – if you can call it that – of an injury explanation.

Cody Allen

2018 Stats – 67.0 IP, 27.7 K%, 11.4 BB%, 30.0 GB%, 4.70 ERA, 4.56 FIP

Allen was somewhat quietly an excellent reliever for five straight years, pitching to a 2.59 ERA (163 ERA+) along with 32.4% strikeouts and 8.8% walks in 344.2 IP between 2013 and 2017. He served as Cleveland’s closer for four of those seasons, too, holding onto the role even as Andrew Miller came into the fold. In that time, Allen was the 9th most valuable reliever in the game by fWAR, and 12th by WPA. He may not have had the flash or name value of the pitchers around him, but he was steadily great, and occasionally brilliant.

And then, in his age-29 season, he had the worst year of his career. His strikeout and walk rates were his worst since his 29.0 IP debut in 2012, and his GB%, ERA, and FIP were the worst of his career. Allen had quietly been susceptible to the longball for a couple of years, but it got out of hand in 2018 as his HR/9 skyrocketed to 1.48. His 12.8% HR/FB wasn’t too out of hand, but allowing 50.6% of all batted balls to be put into the air doesn’t jibe too well with that.

So what the heck happened? His fastball and curveball velocity, which had been steadily slipping since 2015, dropped by about half a tick, which may well have played a part:

The spin on both of his offerings dropped from 2017 to 2018, as well. Allen’s fastball checked-in at 2506 RPM in 2017, and 2445 RPM in 2018; for his curveball, those numbers were 2617 and 2575. For a pitcher who relies on two pitches, it’s easy to imagine that losing a bit of heat and a bit of spin could have horrendous results – and that manifested last year, as Allen allowed a much higher exit velocity (up 4.1 MPH) and launch angle (up 1.6 degrees) in 2018.

Are there any positives to be gleaned from his 2018, though? No; not really, at least. His numbers were bad in every month but April, and he was shelled in both of his playoff outings against the Astros (54.00 ERA – not a typo – in 1 IP). Unless Allen was hurt at the end of April and some nagging injury kept him down for the rest of the year, this has all of the makings of a straight-up bad year for the now 30-year-old. And it couldn’t have been more poorly-timed for him.

MLBTR (two years, $16 MM) and FanGraphs (two years, $18 MM) basically agree on the sort of contract Allen will sign this off-season. Cleveland didn’t extend the QO, so there’s no additional cost beyond the dollars and cents.

Allen is an interesting case, given that he was so good for so long, which isn’t terribly common for relievers. His whole career has been in the AL, and he was incredibly effective in the playoffs prior to this year, too. If he had hit the free agent market after 2017, Allen may well be looking at a huge payday. As it stands, he might have to settle for something of a pillow contract. I would be hesitant to give him two years, as relievers do have a nasty tendency to abruptly fall apart, but I would be fine with a one-year deal.

Greg Holland

2018 Stats – 46.1 IP, 22.2 K%, 15.1 BB%, 40.0 GB%, 4.66 ERA, 3.83 FIP

Holland was arguably the best reliever in baseball from 2011 through 2014, pitching to a 1.86 ERA (220 ERA+) in 256.1 IP in the regular season, and a ludicrous 0.82 ERA in 11 postseason innings. He was a mere mortal in 2015, however, with a 3.83 ERA (110 ERA+); and his season ended on September 22 of that year, when the team announced he needed Tommy John Surgery. He missed all of 2016, and was a man without a team for that entire year.

In January of 2017, Holland was healthy and ready to go, and he signed a one-year deal with the Rockies. It was a strange choice for a pitcher hoping to rebuild his value, but he did quite well, pitching to a 3.61 ERA (140 ERA+) in 57.1 IP, with a strong 29.8 K%. The walks were high (11.1%), but, for a guy in a bad pitching environment with a year’s worth of rust, that was more than forgivable. Holland nevertheless had to settle for another one-year deal for the 2018 season. This time, the Cardinals came calling – but not until March 31. What a weird off-season 2017-18 was. But I digress.

As you can see from the numbers above, Holland was not good on the whole of 2018. However, it was a tale of two seasons. You see, Holland was released by the Cardinals on August 1, and was scooped up by the Nationals within the week. His splits:

Cardinals – 25.0 IP, 16.7 K%, 16.7 BB%, 35.6 GB%, 7.92 ERA, 4.56 FIP
Nationals – 21.1 IP, 31.3 K%, 12.5 BB%, 48.8 GB%, 0.84 ERA, 2.97 FIP

Starting his season so late may well have played a role in Holland’s pre-trade struggles, but did anything else change? He did spend a bit over three weeks on the DL with a hip impingement in late-May and early-June – an injury which had bothered him for a couple of weeks prior – which explains a bit. However, everything else is relatively consistent from month to month; his pitch distribution, his velocity, his spin rate, etc. Could it have been a matter of rust and a nagging injury? That seems reasonable, right?

Holland, who turned 33 a few weeks ago, has seen his velocity dip over time, though. And he’s at an age where we shouldn’t expect that to rebound.

His spin rates actually improved across the board last year, relative to 2017, so there’s still a bit of upside in his offerings. At the very least, this is not a matter of his pitches slipping across the board as we saw with Allen.

Neither MLBTR nor FanGraphs have Holland among their top-fifty free agents, so there’s no contract prediction to be had. However, given his back-to-back one-year deals, his career-worst 2018, and his age, it stands to reason that he could be had on a one-year deal.

And, when it comes to a one-year deal, I’d be all-in on Holland. I wouldn’t expect his 2011-2014 greatness, nor would I count on him pitching as well as he did for the Nationals last year – but there’s enough there to suggest that he’s not quite done, and that his Cardinals struggles are not the new normal.

Ryan Madson

2018 Stats – 52.2 IP, 23.4 K%, 6.9 BB%, 42.6 GB%, 5.47 ERA, 3.98 FIP

Why is a 38-year-old reliever that had a 5.47 ERA last year on this list? There are reclamation projects, and there are lost causes, right? Maybe. Or maybe there’s a bit more to Madson’s 2018 season than meets the eye.

In late October, the Washington Post reported that Madson had been dealing with low-back pain that radiated down his front leg throughout the season, and didn’t have it straightened-out until August, when he made adjustments to his delivery. And then the Dodgers overhauled his approach after acquiring him in an August deal from the Nationals, and it paid dividends.

Sure, Madson’s 6.48 ERA with the Dodgers looks ugly; but he had a 36.1 K% and a 2.8 BB%, and was largely done in by a ridiculous .429 BABIP. His 1.96 FIP in Dodger Blue tells a better story of how he was in those stretch-run appearances. The Dodgers leaned on Madson heavily in the playoffs, calling upon him 11 times, and he responded admirably, pitching to a 2.08 ERA in 8.2 IP.

The Dodgers overhaul of Madson’s approach manifested in his pitch selection:

He basically shelved his four-seamer, which was his most hittable offering, and the whiffs returned. That’s the sort of thing that the Yankees coaching staff is all about – and Madson’s already had some success doing it. And, despite his age, velocity isn’t an issue:

As was the case with Holland, there aren’t many contract estimates out there for Madson. And why would there be? He’s a 38-year-old reliever, after all. But, given his apparent health, new approach, and still-strong velocity, he might just be a bargain on a one-year deal. And I would be happy to see that deal be with the Yankees … as long as he’s not the premier reliever signed this off-season.

Martino: Yankees continue to monitor Hanrahan

February 25, 2014 by Mike 21 Comments

Outside of Matt Thornton and some minor league pickups, the Yankees didn’t do much to improve their bullpen this past offseason. David Robertson will take over as closer but the team did not replace Mariano Rivera in the sense that they lost an elite reliever and didn’t pick up anyone to take his spot. New York has a bunch of interesting young guys in camp and Joe Girardi always seems to cobble together a good bullpen out of nowhere, so it might not even be a problem.

The Yankees signed former All-Star closer Andrew Bailey to a minor league contract over the weekend, but that move is geared more towards 2015 than 2014. He is rehabbing from surgery to repair a torn shoulder capsule (and labrum!) and both Girardi and Brian Cashman confirmed that if he does pitch this year, it won’t be until late-August or September. According to Andy Martino, the Yankees have been monitoring two other relievers who are returning from injury and could provide more immediate help:

It turns out the Yanks sent a scout to a recent showcase for former Phillies closer Ryan Madson, according to a source — and while impressed by Madson’s arm after two years of rough recovery from Tommy John surgery, the team considered his asking price excessive.

The Yankees also continue to monitor another another former All-Star, Joel Hanrahan, who underwent Tommy John last year (the Mets have also watched him throw a bullpen session). If Robertson is successful, a player like Hanrahan would probably serve as a setup man.

Madson is the rare Tommy John surgery failure story — he had the procedure two years ago and has not pitched since due to continued setbacks and complications. The 33-year-old has been working out for teams for a few weeks now and there have been no reports of his asking price, whatever it may be. After two lost years, I’ve been assuming he would have to take a minor league deal like Bailey. I guess he’s shooting for more since he’s in a better position to help a team right away.

Hanrahan, 32, not only had Tommy John surgery last May, he also had his flexor tendon repaired and bone chips removed from his elbow. They did all three procedures at once and while he is currently throwing off a mound, Hanrahan isn’t expected to be game ready until May or June. There’s a chance he will be ready sooner rather than later just because he’s a one-inning reliever and won’t have to get stretched back out like a starter.

Given his timetable and the nature of his injury, Hanrahan might be the best 2014 bullpen option among himself, Bailey, and Madson. We know Bailey won’t be able to help until late in the year, if at all. Madson hasn’t pitched in two years and since he’s already had so many setbacks with the elbow, I don’t think you can count on him to be healthy and productive until he’s actually on a big league mound being healthy and productive. All three guys were elite when they were last healthy, but Hanrahan’s injury is the least severe. (They’re all severe, obviously.)

The Yankees have been signing injured pitchers and waiting for them to get healthy for years. They did it with Jon Lieber (worked out) and Octavio Dotel (didn’t work out) back in the day and with David Aardsma (didn’t work out) more recently. Bailey is the latest example and if Madson’s demands remain excessive for a pitcher who hasn’t pitched in two years, Hanrahan could be the next. With nothing but scraps left on the free agent market and teams not really looking to trade relievers at the moment, he is their best option for potential high-end bullpen help in the near future.

A look at the reclamation project reliever market

January 6, 2014 by Mike 14 Comments

In 19 days, we will know where Masahiro Tanaka will pitch next season one way or another. He’ll either sign with an MLB club or return to the Rakuten Golden Eagles for another season. The Yankees are expected to be heavily involved in the bidding for Tanaka, and, until his January 24th signing deadline passes, the right-hander figures to dominate the hot stove headlines.

The Bombers definitely need another starter — you can argue they need two more starters, really — and that is the top priority right now, but they also need bullpen help. Quite a bit of bullpen help, really. The Yankees have already signed lefty Matt Thornton to a two-year deal but he is just a lefty specialist at this point of his career. They could use another non-specialist — someone who can get both lefties and righties out — to pair with David Robertson and Shawn Kelley. Someone to knock the Dellin Betanceses and Preston Claibornes of the world down a peg.

We’ve already looked at Grant Balfour, who would be a great bullpen addition after his deal with the Orioles fell through. Great as long as the medicals check out, I mean. Other big-ish name relievers available in free agency are Francisco Rodriguez, Fernando Rodney, and former Yankee Luis Ayala. That’s … not very appealing. There are also plenty of reclamation project types though, guys coming off injury and/or poor performance who could sign relatively cheap. Maybe even on a minor league deal. Here’s a run down of the reclamation project lot.

Andrew Bailey
Bailey, 29, is a New Jersey native who was one of the very best relievers in baseball while with the Athletics from 2009-2011 (2.07 ERA and 2.74 FIP). The last two years with the Red Sox have been a struggle both performance-wise (4.91 ERA and 4.68 FIP) and physically, as thumb and shoulder surgery have sidelined him.

Bailey had surgery to repair a torn shoulder capsule in late-July and the next pitcher to come back from a torn capsule to be even league average will be the first. Its list of victims includes Chien-Ming Wang, Mark Prior, Rich Harden, Johan Santana, and John Danks. Given the timing of the surgery, it’s unlikely Bailey will be able to pitch at all in 2014. At least not enough to make a real impact.

Mitchell Boggs
Two seasons ago, the 29-year-old Boggs was a key cog in the Cardinals’ bullpen as they advanced to the NLCS (2.21 ERA and 3.42 FIP). Last season was a total disaster (8.10 ERA and 7.42 FIP) as he lost the strike zone (7.71 BB/9 and 16.7 BB%) and found himself back in Triple-A, where he wasn’t much better (6.07 ERA and 5.09 FIP).

Boggs wasn’t hurt in 2013, he was just terrible. He’s always been a hard-throwing guy with sketchy command, but everything fell apart last year. The Mets, Cubs, Phillies, Indians, and Mariners are among the clubs with interest in him according to Jayson Stark. The Cardinals know pitching as well as anyone, and if they cut ties with Boggs — they traded him to the Rockies for a small amount of international spending money in July — he might not be salvageable.

Octavio Dotel
The 40-year-old Dotel was still going strong in 2012, when he had a 3.57 ERA and 2.30 FIP for the Tigers. He was limited to only 4.2 innings last year thanks to elbow inflammation that which required platelet-rich plasma treatment, according to Bob Nightengale. Dotel hoped to be healthy in time to showcase himself in winter ball, but that didn’t happen. Given his age and injury, Dotel is as risky as it gets. Add in his career-long problems with lefties — he’s basically a right-handed specialist — and there’s even more reason to be skeptical.

Joel Hanrahan
The Red Sox acquired Hanrahan last winter and he lasted only 7.1 innings before blowing out his elbow in mid-May and needing not only Tommy John surgery, but also surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon and remove bone chips from his elbow. Before getting hurt, he was awesome with the 2011 Pirates (1.83 ERA and 2.18 FIP) and slightly less awesome with the 2012 Pirates (2.72 ERA and 4.45 FIP).

Hanrahan, 32, is currently throwing off a mound as part of his rehab and he plans to showcase himself for teams in Spring Training, so says Tim Dierkes. Elbows are generally fixable and Hanrahan has always been a high-strikeout (career 9.29 K/9 and 24.0 K%) guy with no substantial platoon split. His experience as a closer is a plus, but, given the Yankees’ bullpen situation, not exactly a requirement at this point.

Ryan Madson
Elbows are generally fixable like I said, but Madson is the exception. The 33-year-old had Tommy John surgery in April 2012 and has not pitched since due to rehab and subsequent setbacks. He had another surgery last May to clean out scar tissue. Madson, who was unreal before getting hurt (2.78 ERA and 2.74 FIP from 2009-2011), has been holding private workouts for teams in recent weeks according to Jon Heyman. There’s really not much more he can do at this point. He’s a total unknown after missing two full years.

Eric O’Flaherty
O’Flaherty, 28, is the only left-hander in this post. He was stellar with the Braves from 2010-2012 (1.59 ERA and 2.98 FIP) because he dominated lefties (.219 wOBA against) and held his own against righties (.293 wOBA against). O’Flaherty blew out his elbow late last May and had Tommy John surgery, which figures to keep him out until midseason 2014.

The Braves have been talking with their former southpaw about a reunion all winter, and a few days ago Dave O’Brien said talks were still ongoing. With Thornton slated to be the top lefty come Opening Day, the Yankees can afford to be patient and wait for O’Flaherty — who is more than just a matchup southpaw, remember — to be ready at midseason. It’s worth noting O’Flaherty and former teammate Brian McCann are very good friends — McCann said he took #34 with the Yankees to honor O’Flaherty — which could give New York a recruiting edge.

* * *

The price for reclamation projects has gone up in recent years, just like it has for all free agents. Getting these guys on minor league contracts is the best case scenario but it might not be possible at this point. Bailey’s shoulder injury really scares me and the fact and he’s unlikely to help much in 2014 makes him an easy pass in my opinion. Hanrahan and O’Flaherty are the most appealing to me with Madson a distant third.

The Yankees can use some more certainty in the bullpen right now and none of these guys provides it. I think they need to add another reliever (or two) who they can count on to be ready for Opening Day. If they could snag someone like that plus, say, Hanrahan on a one-year deal (with an option, ideally) and treat him as a midseason pickup, great. I’d rather not see the Yankees treat a reclamation project as Plan A, however.

Angels, Madson set the market for Soria

November 28, 2012 by Mike 49 Comments

The Angels have signed Ryan Madson to a one-year contract according to multiple reports, and the deal will pay the right-hander a $3.5M base salary. He can earn another $2.5M in roster bonuses (based on days on the active roster) and $1M in incentives (bases on games finished).

The 32-year-old Madson was one of two formerly-elite relievers recovering from Tommy John surgery on the free agent market this winter, joining Joakim Soria. Soria, 28, has indicated a willingness to setup for the Yankees just so he could be around his idol Mariano Rivera, and now we have an idea of what it would take to sign him. Soria is several years younger than Madson with a much longer track record in the closer’s role (saves pay) though, but he’s also coming off his second Tommy John surgery. It would be a pretty big coup if the Yankees could add him to their bullpen with a similarly structured contract, say a one-year deal worth $5M with another $3M in bonuses.

Mailbag: Grandy, Polanco, Soria, Madson, Martin

November 2, 2012 by Mike 43 Comments

Six questions but only four answers this week, the first official mailbag of the 2012-2013 offseason. Remember to please use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar for all ‘bag related correspondence.

Anonymous asks: Should they decide to trade him, realistically what could the Yankees get for Curtis Granderson?

The Yankees officially exercised Granderson’s no-brainer $15M option earlier this week, and he’s due to become a free agent after next season. He’s hit .247/.337/.506 over the last three seasons and that seems like a decent approximation of his expected 2013 production. Maybe less if you really don’t like him and think strikeouts are the root of all evil. Granderson is a center fielder but not a good one, though he is definitely an above average player signed for one year.

Guys like that don’t get traded all that often, but we do have a decent sample over the last few years, most notably Matt Holliday, Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Willingham, and Dan Uggla. Granderson is somewhere between Willingham (traded for two prospects, one being an MLB-ready reliever) and Gonzalez (three prospects, two being top 100 guys), which at least gives us a reference point rather than just guessing. He won’t fetch a Carlos Gonzalez type (like Holliday), but I think the Yankees could realistically demand two good prospects for Granderson in a trade. Two guys in a club’s top ten prospects list, for example. Preferably at least one of them would be an MLB-ready outfielder, of course.

Matt asks: What would you think about adding Placido Polanco as a back up utility guy to play the role that Chavez had?

Travis asks: Lets say the Tigers non-tender Ryan Raburn. Is he enough of a utility player for the Yankees? If he is, would he be an upgrade over Jayson Nix?

Might as well lump these two together. Polanco, 37, makes some sense as a backup corner infielder/emergency second baseman depending on his back. He’s missed a bunch of time these last few years with everything from inflammation to soreness to bulging discs. The Yankees would have to look him over really well during the physical. Polanco isn’t anything special on defense, has no power (.075 ISO last three years), no speed (only eight steals), and doesn’t walk (6.3 BB%), but he’s a contact machine who rarely strikes out (.281 AVG last three years with an 8.0 K%). The Yankees can use some of that, it just depends on whether they’re comfortable with his medicals and having a right-handed hitting corner infielder.

As for the 31-year-old Raburn, it would have to be a minor league contract only. I really liked him a few years ago, but he just hasn’t hit at all lately. He broke out with a .285/.348/.498 showing from 2009-2010 (.286/.373/.580 vs. LHP), but these last two years he’s hit just .226/.272/.370 overall (.232/.283/.397 vs. LHP) and been demoted to the minors. Raburn is far more versatile than Polanco, with lots of experience at second and in the outfield corners plus some time at third base as well, but he can’t hit. That 2009-2010 stuff is tantalizing, but I don’t think he’s better than Nix and I wouldn’t give him anything more than a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite.

GB asks: I see that the options for Joakim Soria and Matt Lindstrom were declined. They seem like good targets to me. Your thoughts?

Lonnie asks: Do you see the Yanks making a play for Soria or Ryan Madson at low-cost deals to possibly close in 2014?

Gonna lump these two together as well, and yes, all three make perfect sense on short-term contracts. Obviously Soria and Madson are elite relievers coming off Tommy John surgery while Lindstrom is healthy and more of a middle reliever/setup man, but the Yankees need some bullpen help and all three offer it.

There isn’t a team in baseball that wouldn’t take Soria or Madson on a one-year, low-base salary, incentive-laden “prove yourself then go out and get that big contract next offseason” contract, but the Royals are talking about re-signing the former while the latter still wants a closing job. The 32-year-old Lindstrom is probably a bit underrated, pitching to a 2.84 ERA (3.24 FIP) in 101 innings over the last two years. He throws very hard but is more of a ground ball guy than a strikeout guy, plus he spent most of this season with the Orioles and has at least some AL East experience. I’d take any and all of these guys on a one-year pact.

Jeb asks: If Brian Cashman offers Russell Martin another 3/20 and he turns it down, would you give him a qualifying offer? Assuming $/fWAR holds and fWAR might not capture his defense, perhaps this is worth the risk?

I wouldn’t worry so much about the $/WAR stuff since the Yankees are on their own little planet there. They’re well beyond the point of diminishing returns, meaning every additional dollar they spend adds less and less in terms of wins. You can only win so many baseball games a year regardless of how much you spend. More money means more probability, not more wins.

Anyway, the catching market is atrocious and that goes double for this offseason. There are two legitimate starting catchers on the free agent market this offseason: Martin and A.J. Pierzynski. Mike Napoli has caught more than 80 games once in a his career (2009) and no more than 70 games in the last three years. Kelly Shoppach hasn’t caught more than 75 games since 2008. Pierzynski turns 36 in December and is coming off a career year, plus he was never anything great on defense and is a world-class asshole. Martin doesn’t hit for average but he draws walks, hits for power, and is a pretty good (if not great) defender. He’s also won’t turn 30 until February.

For most of the season it appeared as though Martin (and his agent) made a huge mistake by not taking that three-year, $20M-something extension last winter, but I bet he gets a similar deal this offseason. There are enough big market teams who need a catchers (Rangers, Red Sox, Yankees) and Russ hasn’t yet gotten into his mid-30s, when catchers usually turned into pumpkins. Hell, Chris Iannetta just signed a three-year, $15.55M extension with the Angels despite hitting .240/.332/.398 while missing a bunch of time due to injury this year, and he didn’t even go on the open market. Martin should be able to find the extra $8-10M out there. I don’t think the Yankees will make him a qualifying offer, but I think it would make some sense. Worst case is he accepts and you’ve got him on expensive one-year contract. Considering the general lack of quality catchers, overpaying Martin for a year is a luxury the Yankees can afford.

Thinking Out Loud: The Tommy John Bullpen

March 25, 2012 by Mike 39 Comments

Madson Soria — (Madson via The Cincinnati Enquirer; Soria via Getty)

It’s been a pretty rough month for big name relief pitchers. Not only did Joba Chamberlain suffer an open dislocation of his right ankle, but both Ryan Madson and Joakim Soria blew out their pitching elbows. Those two guys will have Tommy John surgery in the very near future. Forgive me while I indulge myself a bit, but wouldn’t it be something if the Yankees bought low on both Madson and Soria next offseason? We can all dream a little.

* * *

Based on how he’s been talking in camp, Mariano Rivera is likely to call it a career after this season. It’ll be a very sad day whenever Mo hangs ’em up, but it is inevitable. The Yankees do have two ready-made closer replacements already in-house, specifically Rafael Soriano and David Robertson. Who knows what we’ll be saying ten months from now, but at the moment those two are more than qualified for ninth inning work. The Yankees will still have to replace a dominant reliever though, and both Madson and Soria qualify as dominant relievers when healthy.

Madson, 31, signed a one-year pillow contract with the Reds this offseason, so he’ll again be a free agent next offseason coming off elbow surgery. Needless to say, the big multi-year offers won’t be rolling in. Soria, 27, is at the whim of the Royals. They can either pick up his $8M option for 2013 or cut him loose and let him become a free agent for the first time in his career. Again, it’s safe to assume those big multi-year contract offers won’t be rolling in for the Mexecutioner. Sucks for them, but that’s how this baseballing thing works.

This is Soria’s second Tommy John procedure, and the two-timers don’t have a great track record of recovery. Chris Capuano and Hong-Chih Kuo are the two most notable success stories. For the sake of argument, let’s assume Kansas City decides not to sink 15-20% of its payroll into Soria and lets him walk. The Yankees could look at both guys on one-year contracts, allowing them to re-establish themselves as dominant late-game relievers before hitting the open market after the season in search of that big multi-year deal they won’t get next winter. One-year pacts would still allow the Yankees to get under the $189M luxury tax threshold in 2014.

Let’s say they could get both Madson and Soria on one-year, $3M contracts with incentives. Add in David Aardsma, who the Yankees can retain in 2013 for just $500k, and that’s three Tommy John guys in the bullpen. Joba could make it four depending on how the ankle injury impacts his elbow rehab schedule. Now, not all of those guys would work out. We may think it’s routine, but elbow ligament replacement surgery is a serious procedure. Two of those four guys may flame out and be completely ineffective, but if the other two guys get back to being their pre-Tommy John selves, the Yankees would still come out ahead in the whole production vs. cost thing.

Anyway, I’m just thinking out loud. Everyone loves the idea of landing a super-talented player on the cheap as they come off injury (hence all the Grady Sizemore-related mailbag questions this winter) but that’s because we’re not the ones assuming the risk. The team has to pay them real money to pitch real innings, and coming off serious surgery like that is no piece of cake. A bullpen staff of Madson, Soria, Joba, Robertson, Soriano, and Aardsma is drool-worthy regardless of who ends up closing, and there’s no harm dreaming about it. We are Yankees fans, after all.

Yankees in a “holding pattern” with regards to pitching

January 10, 2012 by Mike 26 Comments

Earlier today we learned that the Yankees will reevaluate their budget in the coming weeks, and tonight the Jons (Heyman and Morosi) report that the team is in a “holding pattern” with regards to its pitching search. They are still in touch with Edwin Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda, and Roy Oswalt, but they just don’t like the asking prices. They are not interested in Ryan Madson, however. So in other words … nothing new to report.