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Scouting the DFA Market: Blake Swihart and Brad Miller

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Swihart. (Getty Images)

Two American League division favorites designated a potentially useful bat for assignment in the last couple days. If the Yankees were fully or nearly healthy and performing, there wouldn’t be a role for either Blake Swihart or Brad Miller. The 2019 Yankees, however, may have the room for another offensive player.

So let’s see how Swihart and Miller stack up and could fit for the Yankees:

Blake Swihart

Despite an OK start at the plate, catcher/utility man Blake Swihart was DFA’d by the Red Sox on Tuesday before the first Yankees-Sox game of the season. Swihart has been in no man’s land for the last year, out of options but without a clear path to playing time despite the promise in his bat.

The 27-year-old backstop ranked 17th in Baseball America’s prospect rankings before the 2015 season (18th by MLB Pipeline) and it was his third time in BA’s rankings. Swihart looked like he could be a switch-hitting catcher who could be the full package on both sides of the ball. He was the No. 1 Red Sox prospect and No. 1 catching prospect in all of baseball.

After five seasons of getting jerked into different roles, Swihart finally got some semblance of normalcy as the backup catcher this season. He had six hits in his first 12 at-bats before an 0-for-14 skid ended his time in Boston.

His 88.3 mph exit velocity is right around league average, though his .364 xwOBA and 42.1 percent hard-hit rate indicates there may be more in his bat. He strikes out about a fourth of the time while sporting a walk rate near seven. Despite his switch-hitting, he should be a strict platoon bat as he fails to hit near average against left-handed pitching.

His defense leaves something to be desired. He has gotten better as a pitch framer and is league average, but Boston chose to upgrade defensively with Sandy Leon.

If we were a little later in the year, the Yankees’ poor record could help them in waiver priority, but as we are still in the first 30 days of the season, waivers go by last year’s standings. Oh well. There are enough team with questionable catching situations and the opportunity to let Swihart sink or swim that he should be claimed if the Red Sox can’t find a trade suitor.

Boston isn’t trading him to the Yankees. It’s not a tremendous loss, as the Bombers with a fully healthy Gary Sanchez don’t have a spot for him. If Sanchez were to miss an extended period, Swihart would be an upgrade over Kyle Higashioka at the plate and could enter into a platoon with Austin Romine. No, he’s not an improvement on Romine, at least not based on what he’s shown in the majors thus far. It’s a pipe dream that he’d join the Yankees, but hey, it’s not the craziest thing to happen.

Miller. (Getty Images)

Brad Miller

Miller, on the other hand, could actually find his way to pinstripes. That’s just my speculating — there hasn’t been reported interest on the Yankees’ part as of now — but the veteran infielder would be a temporary improvement for New York’s lineup.

The Indians DFA’d Miller with Jason Kipnis getting healthy, though Cleveland also did it in order to only give Miller the prorated portion of his $1 million contract instead of fully guaranteeing it by rostering him for a few more weeks. Miller’s 97 OPS+ and .742 OPS ranked third for the Indians’ paltry offense.

Cleveland was playing Miller at second base — he’s played everywhere on the infield in his career — but the Yankees wouldn’t have a need for him there. He doesn’t have the glove to man the middle infield all that well and is best confined to first base. He’s three years removed from hitting 30 homers for the Rays as a poor fielding shortstop.

Well, the Yankees have an opening at first. Greg Bird’s injury led to a call-up for Mike Ford, who has the potential to catch fire for a little while but is unlikely to last. Miller, meanwhile, has been a near-league-average hitter with some pop and has played a passable first base in his career. That’s not a ringing endorsement, but it’s an improvement over Bird’s lackluster season.

Miller would be available for $1 million via waivers or near league minimum in free agency and there aren’t many suitors for his services outside of the Yankees. There are enough DH at-bats (or first base ABs if you place Luke Voit at DH) free until the Yankees’ get healthy that he’d have a role right away.

There’s no need to wait for him to get back like another free agent signing. If he doesn’t hit or enough of Hicks/Stanton/Andujar/Sanchez get healthy, Miller could be jettisoned as quickly as he came in. But he does provide some upside as a former 30-home run hitter who does just enough with the bat to justify his lack of glove.

Scouting the Free Agent Market: Rotation Depth

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The following is the first post from our newest writer, Derek Albin. He currently contributes to Baseball Prospectus and has also written about the Yankees at the now defunct BP Bronx and It’s About The Money, Stupid. You’ll see his work regularly. You can follow Derek on Twitter at @derekalbin.

How many more Cessa starts do we have to watch? (Getty Images)

Conventional wisdom can be trite, but sometimes it exists for good reason. The old adage that you can never have enough starting pitching is something said ad nauseam, but holds true. Just look at the Yankees last year: twelve different pitchers started and ten of them did so on multiple occasions. This season, we can probably expect something similar.

Right now, the Yankees have baseball’s third-best projected rotation per Fangraphs. It’s pretty hard to knock a staff of that caliber, but if there’s any flaw, it’s depth. In particular, Luis Cessa, Chance Adams, Albert Abreu, and Domingo Acevedo project for 83 innings altogether. Decreasing that group’s workload would be ideal, and it looks like something the front office is considering. Even with pitchers and catchers reporting in just a few weeks, there are still some useful pitchers available in free agency.

Wade Miley

Like CC Sabathia, Miley appears to have saved his career thanks to an emphasis on the cutter. In the past, Miley had thrown four-seamers for more than half of his pitches. Last year, he started throwing his cutter more than 40 percent of the time to resounding success. His home run problems? Gone. He allowed just three long balls in over 80 innings. All told, Miley posted a career best 2.57 ERA, supported by a solid 3.59 FIP.

Steamer foresees some regression, projecting a 4.36 ERA this year. Still, sign me up for that as a depth starter. Of course, why would Miley take on such a role? Given his revitalization and history of durability (29 starts or more annually from 2012 through 2017), he should be able to find a regular gig somewhere. Barring a six-man rotation, which is unlikely given the amount of off-days to begin the regular season, Miley would be in the bullpen to begin the year. Sure, someone could get hurt during camp, but that’s not something Miley will want to count on. Miley would be a nice-to-have option, but it seems like an unlikely union. Then again, free agency is a weird, weird place nowadays.

Brett Anderson

It’s been over a decade now since Anderson was one of the top prospects in all of baseball. Injuries have held the southpaw back, but he has put together a few decent stretches at points throughout his career. Though he’s never been a strikeout artist, he’s consistently put together solid peripherals by throwing strikes without surrendering many homers. In a curtailed 2018 due to injury (shocking), he pitched to a 4.48 ERA and 4.17 FIP in just over 80 frames.

Steamer expects more of the same: a low four ERA with some time on the shelf. His ability is tantalizing because he has the makings of a stellar fourth starter, but he simply struggles to stay on the field. For that reason, he might be hard pressed to find a guaranteed spot in anyone’s rotation. Should that be the case, the Yankees are a great fit. I’m sure that the front office would prefer a more durable fallback option, but from a talent perspective, Anderson is hard to top for this role.

Jeremy Hellickson

Like Miley and Anderson, Hellickson also spent time on the disabled list last year. When on the mound, though, the righty pitched well for Washington. He posted a 3.45 ERA and 4.22 FIP in a hair over 90 innings, which was a strong recovery from a horrendous 2017. In time split with Philadelphia and Baltimore that year, Hellickson recorded a career-worst 1.92 HR/9, 5.43 ERA, and 5.77 FIP.

Hellickson’s 2017 is likely the reason for Steamer’s bearish outlook in 2019. Hellickson has always been a fly ball pitcher, so home runs are part of his game, but his highest HR/9 prior to 2017 was 1.36 in 2015. Most other seasons have been in the 1.1 or 1.2 range. Nonetheless, Steamer forecasts 1.59 HR/9, which balloons his projected ERA and FIP over five. I get that fly ball pitchers and Yankee Stadium don’t mix well, but when we’re talking about a sixth or seventh starter, beggars can’t be choosers. He might not be as good as he was in 2018, but I’m certainly not as low on him as Steamer.

Ervin Santana

Finger injuries ruined Santana’s 2018. He made just five starts that aren’t even worth talking about. All you need to know is that he was horrendous. The two years prior are different stories, however. For the Twins in 2016 and 2017, Santana totaled 6.2 fWAR and ERAs in the low threes. Granted, Santana is now 36 and his best days are most certainly behind him. He can’t be that far removed from his 2017 ability though, right?

Steamer disagrees and basically thinks he’s done as an effective starter, calling for an ERA and FIP above five. With his health and projection in mind, it’s a risky proposition to start Santana every fifth day from the get-go, so he will probably have to settle for the type of role the Yankees have available.

The Others

There are a handful of others who’ve been around the block, such as James Shields and Jason Hammel. I’m not very confident in options like those two exceeding the contribution that Cessa et. al. could provide, though a minor league deal wouldn’t hurt. Ditto goes for hurlers like Edwin Jackson, Doug Fister, Josh Tomlin, and Yovani Gallardo. Let’s not mention Clay Buchholz; the thought of him in pinstripes is rather unpleasant. Finally, you might have noticed I excluded Gio Gonzalez, who although still available, I don’t think it’s worth considering because he shouldn’t have to settle.

Scouting the Bargain Bin: Drew Pomeranz

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(Omar Rawlings/Getty)

The Yankees are reportedly hoping to add another starting pitcher before the season begins, which both is and isn’t surprising. It is surprising, because they currently have six starters under contract for 2019, plus Jordan Montgomery slated to return from Tommy John surgery around the All-Star break. At the same time, it is not surprising because Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton, and CC Sabathia (who also just had heart surgery) make semi-frequent trips to the disabled list, and Sonny Gray is persona non grata. Oh, what a tangled web we weave.

Given that, it stands to reason that the Yankees may not want to invest heavily in an ‘in case of emergency’ starter; and, by the same thought process, there’s no guarantee that any pitcher on the market would accept such a role (or the pay scale that’s likely to come with it). And all of that is my roundabout way of saying that the job is most likely to go to a pitcher looking to rebuild his value and/or simply not in high demand.

So let’s talk about Drew Pomeranz.

Background

The 30-year-old Pomeranz was the fifth overall pick by the Cleveland Indians back in 2010, and, as one would expect from his draft position, was immediately considered a top prospect. He was ranked as the 61st best prospect in the game heading into 2011 by Baseball America, and climbed up to number 30 prior to the 2012 season. And he made his MLB debut in September of 2011, albeit as a member of the Colorado Rockies (he was the prize of the Ubaldo Jimenez trade).

Pomeranz was mostly an up-and-down arm for the next two years, struggling to find success or a straightforward role with the Rockies. He was dealt to the Oakland A’s for Brett Anderson in the 2013-14 off-season, and it was in Oakland that he would settle-in as a swingman – and thrive. He’s been a big-leaguer ever since, pitching for the Padres and, most recently, the Red Sox.

Recent Performance

A year ago, this section would have looked absolutely stellar. Unfortunately – or fortunately, for suitors that believe in his ability to bounce back – 2018 did happen. In the interest of capturing where my positivity that will follow comes from, take a look at Pomeranz’s production from his 2015 breakout forward:

G (GS) IP K% BB% GB% HR/9 ERA FIP
2014 20 (10) 69.0 23.0% 9.4% 45.7% 0.91 2.35 3.77
2015 53 (9) 86.0 23.0% 8.7% 42.2% 0.84 3.66 3.62
2016 31 (30) 170.2 26.5% 9.3% 46.2% 1.16 3.32 3.80
2017 32 (32) 173.2 23.5% 9.3% 43.2% 0.98 3.32 3.84
2018 26 (11) 74.0 19.2% 12.8% 37.1% 1.46 6.08 5.43

That’s four very good to great years in a row, followed-up by a big time stinker in 2018. So what the heck happened? In short: everything.

Pomeranz got a late start to the 2018 due to a forearm strain, and he never really got on-track after returning in late-April. His strikeout and groundball rates were way down, and his walk and home run rates were way up, and that’s … well … really bad. And he was hit way harder than he ever had been before:

You see those blue-ish marks? All of those mean that he was in the bottom-5% of the league in 2018. Again, that’s really bad. It’s so bad, in fact, that it’s difficult to mine the data for anything even bordering on positive, or suggestive of the year being overtly flukish. And this is why Pomeranz hasn’t been popping up in many rumors, if any, and why I’d hazard that he’ll end up signing on the cheap.

That being said, you cannot simply ignore the four previous seasons. He had success in the bullpen and in the rotation, and he thrived in the AL East for a year and a half. Above-average strikeout rates along with average groundball and walk rates is a recipe for at least a reasonable amount of success.

The Stuff

The vast majority of Pomeranz’s offerings are his four-seam fastball and curveball, which generally account for between 75 and 80% of his selection. However, he also throws a sinker, a cutter, and a change-up. Here’s how they look velocity-wise:

And the rightmost dots on the graph give us what may well be the reason for Pomeranz’s struggles last year: his velocity dropped by over a MPH on everything but his infrequently used change-up. His elite spin rates (especially on his curveball, which is among the best in the game) remained intact, per Statcast, but nothing had the same oomph. And, as you can tell from his walk rate above, he couldn’t locate, either.

Pomeranz blamed the lack of velocity and struggles with location on rust and mechanical issues, which seems fair. I’m putting off the injury talk for a bit longer, but he did miss a significant amount of time last season with a couple DL stints, and he also may’ve been tipping pitches. That doesn’t exactly make him an appealing option – but it must just be fixable.

And this is what his curveball looks like, up close and personal:


How can you not want a shot at fixing that?

Injury History

Here’s the elephant in the room: Pomeranz opened the season on the DL with a forearm/flexor strain. That doesn’t sound good. And then he spent almost all of June and July on the DL once again with biceps tendinitis. Both injuries impacted his left arm, too. And that’s not encouraging.

This isn’t the first time that he has dealt with an injury to his pitching arm, either. When the Red Sox acquired him from the Padres in 2016, there was a mild uproar when it turned out that the Padres didn’t disclose information about Pomeranz receiving some manner of treatment for his arm. In fact, Padres GM A.J. Preller was suspended for this offense. Pomeranz would end up having stem cell treatment for what was described as a flexor tendon issue that off-season.

And that came just a year after he had “minor” shoulder surgery for a clavicle resection. Add in a broken wrist in 2014 and biceps tendinitis in 2013, and it seems as if Pomeranz has never been truly healthy for a full season. He managed to make 30-plus starts in 2016 and 2017, though, and you can’t take that away from him.

Contract Estimate

Given the way this off-season has unfolded, just imagine me shrugging here. There are a variety of one-year pillow contract estimates floating around the internet, and that’s probably what Pomeranz will end up with. I’d assume it’ll be a low base salary with tons of incentives, for what it’s worth.

Does He Make Sense for the Yankees?

In my mind, the Yankees desire for another starter is more akin to adding legitimate rotation depth than adding an actual starter. And, even with his injury issues and rocky 2018, I think that Pomeranz is all but a perfect fit for what the team could use. My rapid-fire reasoning:

  1. He’s had success in the AL East
  2. He’s a lefty
  3. His curveball is among the best in the game
  4. He has plenty of experience as a swingman
  5. He’ll come cheap

I wouldn’t expect Pomeranz to repeat his 2016 and 2017, but I think that 2018 can largely be chalked-up as a lost season. It doesn’t sound as though he was ever really healthy, and there are plenty of rumblings that the Red Sox rushed him back not once, but twice last year. Give him an off-season of rest, ease him into the team as a long-reliever, and have him be first in-line for a spot start. And I genuinely believe he can be an asset in such a role – he’ll be 30 for the entirety of the season, after all, so it feels too early to write him off.

Scouting the Free Agent Market: Nelson Cruz

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Cruz receiving a well-earned curtain call from the Mariners crowd. (Stephen Brashear/Getty)

The off-season has slowed to a crawl, and isn’t likely to pick back up until the New Year. With that in mind, I wanted to write a bit about a player that makes a great deal of sense for the Yankees under a specific set of circumstances. Those being:

  1. They are willing to go over the luxury tax threshold.
  2. They either miss out on or choose not to pursue Bryce Harper and/or Manny Machado.
  3. They are willing to start Giancarlo Stanton in left field.

I don’t know the likelihood of any of these scenarios coming to bear – aside from my pessimistic certainty that neither Harper nor Machado is in the cards – but there’s not much else to think about until more chips start falling. So, with that in mind, how would a full-time, big-bopping DH fit into the lineup?

Let’s talk about Nelson Cruz.

Background

The 38-year-old Cruz was a late bloomer, having signed by the Mets out of the Dominican Republic as an 18-year-old with no fanfare, and staying in the Dominican Summer League for three full years. The Mets sent him to the A’s in 2000, and he was stuck in the low minors for another three years, before breaking out across High-A and Double-A in 2004. Despite his robust .326/.390/.562 slash line in 2004, the A’s dealt him to the Brewers for one year of utilityman Keith Ginter that off-season.

Cruz performed well in the upper minors for the Brewers (.289/.385/.537), but was dealt to the Rangers at the following trade deadline. He was an up-and-down guy for Texas for two years, before finally landing a full-time gig with the team in 2009 – his age-28 season. Cruz has been one of the premiere right-handed power hitters in the game from that point forward, with the lone black mark on his record being his 2013 PED suspension.

Offensive Performance

Cruz just wrapped-up a four-year, $57 MM deal with the Mariners, and that’s as good a sample size as any:

AVG/OBP/SLG wRC+ HR K% BB% BABIP
2015 .302/.369/.566 158 44 25.0% 9.0% .350
2016 .287/.360/.555 148 43 23.8% 9.3% .320
2017 .288/.375/.549 147 39 21.7% 10.9% .315
2018 .256/.342/.509 134 37 20.6% 9.3% .264

It’s almost metronomic, isn’t it? Cruz’s 2016 and 2017 are virtually identical, his walk and strikeout rates are steady, and the range in his ISO across these four seasons is a scant .016. That’s what you want in a middle-of-the-order bat. Of course, the issue of 2018 being a comparatively down year for Cruz cannot be ignored, nor can the fact that he’s 38. So is there anything out there that shows that 2018 was a fluke, and not age-related?

Why, yes, there is:

Cruz’s exit velocity, launch angle, and hard-hit percentage were all comfortably above league-average last year. Moreover, all three were right around his previous norms – if not a tick above. In fact, his 93.9 MPH exit velocity was the second-best mark in all of baseball. As a result of this, his expected wOBA (or xwOBA) 34 points higher than his actual mark. And, while these metrics aren’t perfect, it seems to indicate that Cruz’s bat hasn’t lost any of its thunder just yet.

Defensive Performance

Cruz is a designated hitter, and that’s all that really needs to be said. He played a total of 54.1 innings in the outfield these last two years, and that’s 54.1 innings more than he should have played.

Injury History

Cruz has been incredibly durable over the last half-dozen years or so, only hitting the DL once since the beginning of 2012. And, while that happened last year, it was the result of him slipping down the dugout steps. He has been banged-up, of course, but he averaged 152 games per season with the Mariners. Cruz’s age may make him more of an injury risk, but letting him sit between at-bats mitigates that fear at least a bit.

Contract Estimates

FanGraphs and MLB Trade Rumors both project a two-year deal worth around $15 MM per season. His market is limited to American League clubs, which might make him more likely to settle for a one-year deal, or an incentive-laden screed with a vesting option. And there are no qualifying offer considerations here, which helps.

Does He Make Sense for the Yankees?

Assuming the above criteria are in-play, then yes – absolutely. Cruz is a lock to take a short-term deal due to his age and lack of versatility, and he has been nothing but terrific over the last several years. He’s right-handed, which further skews the lineup … but I genuinely don’t believe that matters. He has no disconcerting platoon splits, and, given that Safeco is hell on right-handed power hitters, he might even improve in another park. I fully believe in Cruz’s ability to be an offensive juggernaut for another year or two.

And, you know what: I think he makes sense if the Yankees are blowing past the tax and signing Machado to play SS and/or 3B, I’d still want to see Cruz in-play. You can never have enough quality bats.

Update (10:32am ET): Well, so much for that idea. Cruz has agreed to a deal with the Twins, according to multiple reports. Jon Heyman says Cruz will earn $14M in 2019 with a $12M club option ($300,000 buyout) for 2020, so that’s $14.3M guaranteed.

Scouting the Free Agent Market: Gonzalez, LeMahieu, & Lowrie

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Marwin Gonzalez going deep. (Elsa/Getty)

The Yankees need for a middle infielder is paramount, with Didi Gregorius still shelved for a still undetermined period of time; and, lest we forget, this is also his last season of team control. Brian Cashman and Co. are meeting today with the best available option to fill that hole – both now and long-term – in Manny Machado. Given the competition for his services and whatever payroll restrictions the Yankees have, however, the likelihood of Machado signing on the dotted line feels lower than most anyone would like. As such, it makes sense to dig into the next tier of middle infield options, even if that would mean shifting Gleyber Torres to short.

And so, without further ado, let’s talk about Marwin Gonzalez, DJ LeMahieu, and Jed Lowrie.

Marwin Gonzalez

2018 Stats – .247/.324/.409, 16 HR, 2 SB, 104 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR

I think there is something of a collective overrating of Gonzalez, due to his positional flexibility and his prominence as a contributor to the Houston Astros these last two years. Well it’s that, and the fact that he was absurdly productive in 2017, slashing .303/.377/.530 (144 wRC+) with 23 home runs, and playing at least 19 games at five different positions (first, second, third, short, and left). That season sticks out like a sore thumb, though:

I would not argue that Gonzalez is a bad player; far from it, in fact. He has a great deal of value as a player that offers a league-average bat and sound defense all around the field, and his pop and recently found on-base skills should not be discounted. I would just urge caution with anyone that compares him to Ben Zobrist – the standard-bearer for this role – as Zobrist’s track record was eight years of strong production (124 wRC+ from 2008 through 2015) before he hit free agency.

Of course, a utility player doesn’t have to be Zobrist to be worth a spot on the roster. I just believe that our expectations should be more in-line with Gonzalez’s 2018 (or 2014 and 2015) than 2017. But I’ve digressed enough.

Gonzalez, who will be 30 in March, has logged 500+ innings at the five positions mentioned above. Here’s how he grades out:

  • First Base: +1.2 UZR/150, +3.0 DRS/150
  • Second Base: -5.2 UZR/150, +4.7 DRS/150
  • Third Base: -6.7 UZR/150, -3.2 DRS/150
  • Shortstop: -6.9 UZR/150, -0.6 DRS/150
  • Left Field: +8.0 UZR/150, +10.2 DRS/150

There is one caveat to those numbers: Gonzalez has gotten progressively worse at shortstop over the last two years (-6.5 UZR, -8 DRS), so I wouldn’t count on him being anything more than below-average there. However, I do think he can be counted on to be more than passable at second, which is the position at issue, as well as first – which would help his fit once Gregorius returns.

So what we have here is a league-average (or slightly better) switch-hitter with average-ish defense at a position of need (if not two). What’s the going rate for that? MLB Trade Rumors projects four years, $36 MM, whereas the FanGraphs crowd foresees three years, $30 MM. There’s no qualifying offer consideration here, so it’s just cold hard cash for Gonzalez’s services.

Is there hidden value here, though? Something that can be tapped into by a move to Yankee Stadium, perhaps? The answer is … not really. Gonzalez is more of an all fields hitter from the left side of the plate, so the short porch may not help him as much as you’d expect. That’s not necessarily a bad thing – but he’s not the sort of player that stands to take serious advantage of the park’s dimensions.

With all that in mind, I think Gonzalez is a good fit for the Yankees. The price seems reasonable, and there’s the off-chance that he has another big season or two in his bat. And, as a baseline, we know he can handle at least three positions well-enough, and he’s a better hitter than the vast majority of utility players. He’s also still in his prime, so we shouldn’t have to worry about decline for another two or three years.

DJ LeMahieu

(Ralph Freso/Getty)

2018 Stats – .276/.321/.428, 15 HR, 6 SB, 86 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR

LeMahieu has been a full-time player since joining the Rockies for their stretch run in 2012, and has spent the vast majority of his time as the everyday second baseman. He has won three Gold Gloves in that time, including back-to-back wins in 2017 and 2018, and there’s no doubt that he is one of the premier keystone defenders in all of baseball. LeMahieu averages +4.6 UZR/150 and +11.6 DRS/150 for his career, and is coming off of his best season by both metrics. If the Yankees want to make sure second is in good hands while Torres mans shortstop, there might not be a better option out there.

But what about his bat?

At face value, the right-handed LeMahieu has the look of a quality contact hitter. He has slashed .298/.350/.406 in 3799 career plate appearances, and his strikeout rate of 15.2% is among the best in the league. Here’s the rub: he’s a Coors Field guy.

LeMahieu is a .329/.386/.447 (96 wRC+) hitter at Coors, and a .267/.314/.367 hitter (84 wRC+) everywhere else. Put that together and you have a guy with a 90 wRC+, who has just one season (2016) where he posted a wRC+ that was better than league-average. His high-contact approach pays dividends at high altitude, but makes him an empty batting average guy elsewhere.

The 30-year-old LeMahieu, then, isn’t all that different from the all-glove, no-hit options that Mike mentioned as possible fill-ins at shortstop. Is there really much difference between an elite defensive second baseman with an 84 wRC+, and Freddy Galvis – an elite defensive shortstop – and his 77 wRC+? I don’t think so.

To summarize, LeMahieu is a right-handed hitter that doesn’t offer pop or big-time on-base skills. His defense is great – but that’s basically all of his value. And most projections see him making eight-figures per year for two or three years. That’s a hard-pass for me.

Jed Lowrie

(Ezra Shaw/Getty)

2018 Stats – .267/.353/.448, 23 HR, 0 SB, 122 wRC+, 4.9 fWAR

Lowrie, who will turn 35 in April, has had an up-and-down career that is somehow entering its twelfth season. I still remember him as a tantalizing Red Sox prospect from way back when, and I remember the frustration at his propensity for injuries – flukish and otherwise. But he has been healthy in each of the last two years, which have been the two best years of his career. They were eerily similar, too:

  • 2017 – .277/.360/.448, 119 wRC+, 11.3 BB%, 15.5 K%, 119 wRC+
  • 2018 – .267/.353/.448, 122 wRC+, 11.5 BB%, 18.8 K%, 122 wRC+

How’s that for consistency?

The switch-hitting Lowrie has also shown a starker platoon split these last two years, slashing .255/.336/.393 (102 wRC+) against lefties and .278/.364/.498 (128 wRC+) against righties. That may not be ideal, but it isn’t a deal breaker, either. And being above-average against righties and average against lefties is better than the opposite, given that far more plate appearances will come against righties.

Offensively, then, Lowrie looks quite good. He walks at an above-average clip, hits for power, and doesn’t strike out all that much. And he’s done this in the unfriendly environs of Oakland, to boot. So what about his defense?

Lowrie has experience at every infield position. He came up as a shortstop, but hasn’t played there regularly since 2014; second base has been his home since 2016. Let’s see how he’s done there:

  • 2016: -5.5 UZR/150, -11.9 DRS/150
  • 2017: -0.7 UZR/150, -1.8 DRS/150
  • 2018: 5.6 UZR/150, +0.9 DRS/150

That kind of looks like a learning curve, doesn’t it? Lowrie played around 400 innings at the keystone prior to 2016, and it showed. Since then, however, he’s been somewhere between average and an asset thereat. He’s in his mid-30s now, so he might be closer to average (if not a tick below) sooner rather than later – but I think he’s a safe bet to be reliable there.

As was the case with Gonzalez and LeMahieu, there are no draft pick considerations – it’s just cash. MLBTR projects three years and $30 MM, and FanGraphs prediction two and $24 MM. The age is disconcerting, as is the injury history (particularly when taken in conjunction with his age), but Lowrie somehow feels safe enough to me. I would rather have him for two years than three, though.

And if it comes down to Gonzalez or Lowrie, I think it’s an intriguing debate to have. Gonzalez offers comparative youth and way more versatility, but Lowrie was much better last year, and is probably a better hitter and defender at second. If I had to choose, I might go with Gonzalez, if only because he can be a bench asset once Gregorius returns to the fold; Lowrie is all but limited to second (and maybe third). These are definitely the two best options on the market this side of Machado, though, and I’d be happy with either.

Scouting the Free Agent Market: The Middle Relievers

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Brad Brach. (Getty)

The Winter Meetings came and went, and so, too, did a few of the potential bullpen options. The Yankees are still on the hunt for a couple of relievers to replace the free agent duo of Zach Britton and David Robertson – both of whom are still available as of this writing, and both of whom were written about in our season reviews – and, as per Brian Cashman himself, it remains a priority. I’ve already written about Kelvin Herrera, Andrew Miller, Adam Ottavino, Jeurys Familia (who later signed with the Mets for 3-years, $30 MM), Cody Allen, Greg Holland, and Ryan Madson. With the Yankees potential budget restrictions being what they are (or might be), I’ll pivot to some middle relief options to bolster the … well … middle innings.

Brad Brach

2018 Stats – 62.2 IP, 20.8 K%, 9.7 BB%, 46.0 GB%, 3.59 ERA, 3.67 FIP

Yankees fans are familiar with Brach, who pitched for the Orioles from 2014 through this past trade deadline, and has faced the good guys 25 times in his career. He wasn’t terribly effective, though, pitching to a 5.32 ERA in 23.2 IP – but I digress. Brach has been a rock-solid reliever for seven years now, pitching to a 3.05 ERA (133 ERA+) and 3.69 FIP in 449 IP since coming to the majors for good in 2012; and that includes a 2.99 ERA (140 ERA+) in 327.2 IP in the AL East. And that’s something that we’ve seen the Yankees value in the past, notably with the aforementioned Happ.

It is worth exploring why Brach pitched so poorly with the Orioles last year, though. His overall numbers were good, but they don’t tell the whole story. Consider his pre- and post-trade numbers:

  • Orioles – 39.0 IP, 20.5 K%, 10.3 BB%, 46.5 GB%, 4.85 ERA, 4.01 FIP
  • Braves – 23.2 IP, 21.2 K%, 8.7 BB%, 45.1 GB%, 1.52 ERA, 3.12 FIP

What the heck happened? The easiest explanation is that the Orioles are awful, and everyone on the team felt it. Their porous defense led to a .371 BABIP when Brach was on the mound (his career BABIP is .284), and his batted-ball profile doesn’t suggest that he was giving up better contact than before. His hard-hit percentage was up a bit – but his soft-hit percentage was, too. His HR/9 (0.92) and HR/FB (10.0%) were in-line with career norms, as well. So what about his velocity?

Brach’s fastball did tick down this year, particularly in the first half. It returned to normal after the trade, though, which may suggest any number of things. A hidden injury? A slump? The malaise of being an Oriole? Who knows. But he returned to form with Atlanta, much as Britton did with the Yankees. I don’t want to discount the potential of a slip in velocity going forward, though, as Brach will be 33 shortly after opening day. But I think he’s in-line for a bounceback.

MLBTR forecasts a 2-year, $12 MM deal for Brach, and that seems reasonable to me. He has some closer experience, filling in for Britton in 2017 and part of 2018, but he’s largely been a middle reliever or set-up man otherwise, and I suspect that’s how teams view him. And, at that cost, I think he makes quite a bit of sense for the Yankees.

Oliver Perez

(Jonathan Daniels/Getty)

2018 Stats – 32.1 IP, 35.8 K%, 5.8 BB%, 41.2 GB%, 1.39 ERA, 1.74 FIP

Let’s get a few things out of the way first: Perez is a 37-year-old journeyman that had to wait until June to find a team because he was ineffective at best in 2016 and 2017, and his best role is as a lefty specialist. And, yes, 2018 was far and away his best season.

Now, that being said: Perez was an excellent specialist last year. He held lefties to a .191/.214/.274 slash line, which is actually a tick better than he was prior to his two-years of struggle (lefties hit .185/.235/.283 against him in 2015, for example). And he was solid against lefties in those interim years, too; the greatest issue was that he faced a fair amount of righties, and they have murdered him over the last several years. He’s a specialist, through and through.

So is there anything that supports this being for real? Yes, actually: his pitch selection.

Perez all but eliminated his sinker (his worst pitch by a considerable margin in 2016 and 2017) in favor of more four-seamers and more sliders, and it paid dividends. Perhaps due to his focusing on two pitches instead of three, the spin rates on his four-seamer (from 2099 RPM to 2156) and slider (2110 to 2308) increased markedly, and both were more difficult for hitters to square-up as a result. The combination of pitch selection and those pitches having more movement suggests that this wasn’t just luck; and it may even portend a reason to expect something closer to vintage Perez in 2019.

There aren’t really any contract predictions out there for Perez, and I suspect that his market won’t be terribly hot anytime soon. But if the Yankees do turn to a specialist, that lack of interest could result in a bargain.

Sergio Romo

(Adam Glanzman/Getty)

2018 Stats – 67.1 IP, 26.4 K%, 7.0 BB%, 36.4 GB%, 4.14 ERA, 4.04 FIP

Romo has long been a standard-bearer for the slider, with the offering representing better than half of all of his pitches in seven of his last eight seasons. And that actually undersells his reliance on the pitch to a degree – just take a look:

 

The fact that batters have hit just .173 against Romo’s slider over his eleven year career is astounding, to say the least. And, despite the .240 batting average against it in 2018, it was largely more of the same – until batters teed off on it to the tune of a .375 average in his horrific September. And September really skewed everything:

  • Pre-September – 58.1 IP, 27.0 K%, 7.5 BB%, 39.9 GB%, 3.24 ERA, 3.30 FIP
  • September – 9.0 IP, 23.3 K%, 4.7 BB%, 19.4 GB%, 10.00 ERA, 8.83 FIP

Ouch. Romo’s effectiveness dropped off across the board, and it seemed as though every batted ball was hit in the air; and the result of that was five home runs allowed in those nine innings. He had his ups and downs throughout the season, but he has never been as bad as he was in September.

Romo’s anti-fastball approach and year and a half of (mostly) very good performance in the AL East makes him appealing to some extent; and the fact that his market isn’t projected to be all that large helps, too. However, he’ll be 36 in March, and he’s always been a flyball pitcher. And, even with his great slider, it’s hard for me to see a RHP succeeding in Yankee Stadium with a fastball that sits between 87 and 88 MPH, as his has for the last three years.

As a result of this, I wouldn’t say that Romo’s a straight-up no for me – but his name value and upside doesn’t quite jibe with the reality of the Yankees situation.

Tony Sipp

(Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty)

2018 Stats – 38.2 IP, 27.8 K%, 8.6 BB%, 41.5 GB%, 1.86 ERA, 2.41 FIP

In terms of their story arcs over the last few years, Sipp and Perez are quite similar. Sipp never struggled to find a job due to his contract with the Astros, but he bounced back from abysmal 2016 and 2017 seasons to be as dominant as ever (if not more so) in his role in 2018.

From 2011 through 2015, Sipp held lefties to a .210/.283/.369 slash line; in 2018, it was .188/.263/.294. In between, lefties hit .264/.335/.540. And, on the off-chance that this needs to be said, that’s simply unacceptable.

So what can we offer in the way of an explanation? A reappearance/rediscovery of velocity may’ve helped:

Sipp’s velocity was dipped noticeably in 2016 and 2017, and regained nearly a full MPH last season. Moreover, he had largely shelved his four-seamer in 2016 and 2017 (roughly 35.7% of his offerings), before going back to it (53.3%) in 2018. It’s worth noting that his fastball has been a plus offering (by FanGraphs’s run values) throughout his career, but was deep into the red in 2016 and 2017. The spin rate remained steady, per Statcast, so maybe it did just come down to velocity.

Regardless, Sipp is another reliever that doesn’t figure to be in big-time demand. If the Yankees want a lefty specialist, Sipp fits the bill. I do think I’d prefer Perez, though, if only because his pitches – in terms of velocity and spin – jump off the page more.

Joakim Soria

(Jeff Gross/Getty)

2018 Stats – 60.2 IP, 29.4 K%, 6.3 BB%, 35.7 GB%, 3.12 ERA, 2.44 FIP

Soria is a name that is brought up around every Rule 5 Draft, as one of the biggest success stories from what has largely been an uneventful process.  The Royals snagged him from the Padres organization way back in 2006, and he has gone on to rack-up 634.1 innings of 2.88 ERA (148 ERA+) with 220 saves and great peripherals over an eleven year career.

That was a long time ago, though, and Soria is entering his age-35 season. So what sort of pitcher is he now? As you can see from the numbers above, Soria was excellent last year; both his strikeout and walk rates were better than his career norms, and comfortably better than league-average.

And that’s largely who Soria has been over the last several years. 2016 was his worst year, when he posted a 4.05 ERA (4.36 FIP) for the Royals – but he bounced back nicely in 2017 (3.70 ERA and 2.23 FIP), and was even better last year. The key for him is changing arm slots and speeds and keeping batters off-balance, and it has worked far more often than not. And despite his age and mileage, his velocity has remained steady:

It’s kind of beautiful, isn’t it?

Soria’s also the rare reliever that mixes in more than two pitches. He was a fastball-heavy guy in 2018 (66.4%), but he threw his change-up, slider, and curve right around 10% of the time apiece. It’s enough to keep hitters guessing and, along with his arm slots, that’s probably why each pitch had at least a 25% whiff per swing rate.

MLBTR projects a 2-year, $18 MM deal for Soria, and I can definitely see that happening. In fact, I could see him doing a bit better now that I’ve dug into his numbers a bit more. And at 2-years, $18 MM, I’d be pleased to see him in pinstripes. He’s still a stud.

Scouting the Free Agent Market: The Reclamation Projects

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Allen. (Gregory Shamus/Getty)

As we enter the Winter Meetings, the Yankees are still searching for two relievers to replace Zach Britton and David Robertson. I previously wrote about Kelvin Herrera, Andrew Miller, Jeurys Familia, and Adam Ottavino. Today I’m going to shift gears a bit, and focus on pitchers that had substandard years without the benefit – if you can call it that – of an injury explanation.

Cody Allen

2018 Stats – 67.0 IP, 27.7 K%, 11.4 BB%, 30.0 GB%, 4.70 ERA, 4.56 FIP

Allen was somewhat quietly an excellent reliever for five straight years, pitching to a 2.59 ERA (163 ERA+) along with 32.4% strikeouts and 8.8% walks in 344.2 IP between 2013 and 2017. He served as Cleveland’s closer for four of those seasons, too, holding onto the role even as Andrew Miller came into the fold. In that time, Allen was the 9th most valuable reliever in the game by fWAR, and 12th by WPA. He may not have had the flash or name value of the pitchers around him, but he was steadily great, and occasionally brilliant.

And then, in his age-29 season, he had the worst year of his career. His strikeout and walk rates were his worst since his 29.0 IP debut in 2012, and his GB%, ERA, and FIP were the worst of his career. Allen had quietly been susceptible to the longball for a couple of years, but it got out of hand in 2018 as his HR/9 skyrocketed to 1.48. His 12.8% HR/FB wasn’t too out of hand, but allowing 50.6% of all batted balls to be put into the air doesn’t jibe too well with that.

So what the heck happened? His fastball and curveball velocity, which had been steadily slipping since 2015, dropped by about half a tick, which may well have played a part:

The spin on both of his offerings dropped from 2017 to 2018, as well. Allen’s fastball checked-in at 2506 RPM in 2017, and 2445 RPM in 2018; for his curveball, those numbers were 2617 and 2575. For a pitcher who relies on two pitches, it’s easy to imagine that losing a bit of heat and a bit of spin could have horrendous results – and that manifested last year, as Allen allowed a much higher exit velocity (up 4.1 MPH) and launch angle (up 1.6 degrees) in 2018.

Are there any positives to be gleaned from his 2018, though? No; not really, at least. His numbers were bad in every month but April, and he was shelled in both of his playoff outings against the Astros (54.00 ERA – not a typo – in 1 IP). Unless Allen was hurt at the end of April and some nagging injury kept him down for the rest of the year, this has all of the makings of a straight-up bad year for the now 30-year-old. And it couldn’t have been more poorly-timed for him.

MLBTR (two years, $16 MM) and FanGraphs (two years, $18 MM) basically agree on the sort of contract Allen will sign this off-season. Cleveland didn’t extend the QO, so there’s no additional cost beyond the dollars and cents.

Allen is an interesting case, given that he was so good for so long, which isn’t terribly common for relievers. His whole career has been in the AL, and he was incredibly effective in the playoffs prior to this year, too. If he had hit the free agent market after 2017, Allen may well be looking at a huge payday. As it stands, he might have to settle for something of a pillow contract. I would be hesitant to give him two years, as relievers do have a nasty tendency to abruptly fall apart, but I would be fine with a one-year deal.

Greg Holland

(Getty)

2018 Stats – 46.1 IP, 22.2 K%, 15.1 BB%, 40.0 GB%, 4.66 ERA, 3.83 FIP

Holland was arguably the best reliever in baseball from 2011 through 2014, pitching to a 1.86 ERA (220 ERA+) in 256.1 IP in the regular season, and a ludicrous 0.82 ERA in 11 postseason innings. He was a mere mortal in 2015, however, with a 3.83 ERA (110 ERA+); and his season ended on September 22 of that year, when the team announced he needed Tommy John Surgery. He missed all of 2016, and was a man without a team for that entire year.

In January of 2017, Holland was healthy and ready to go, and he signed a one-year deal with the Rockies. It was a strange choice for a pitcher hoping to rebuild his value, but he did quite well, pitching to a 3.61 ERA (140 ERA+) in 57.1 IP, with a strong 29.8 K%. The walks were high (11.1%), but, for a guy in a bad pitching environment with a year’s worth of rust, that was more than forgivable. Holland nevertheless had to settle for another one-year deal for the 2018 season. This time, the Cardinals came calling – but not until March 31. What a weird off-season 2017-18 was. But I digress.

As you can see from the numbers above, Holland was not good on the whole of 2018. However, it was a tale of two seasons. You see, Holland was released by the Cardinals on August 1, and was scooped up by the Nationals within the week. His splits:

  • Cardinals – 25.0 IP, 16.7 K%, 16.7 BB%, 35.6 GB%, 7.92 ERA, 4.56 FIP
  • Nationals – 21.1 IP, 31.3 K%, 12.5 BB%, 48.8 GB%, 0.84 ERA, 2.97 FIP

Starting his season so late may well have played a role in Holland’s pre-trade struggles, but did anything else change? He did spend a bit over three weeks on the DL with a hip impingement in late-May and early-June – an injury which had bothered him for a couple of weeks prior – which explains a bit. However, everything else is relatively consistent from month to month; his pitch distribution, his velocity, his spin rate, etc. Could it have been a matter of rust and a nagging injury? That seems reasonable, right?

Holland, who turned 33 a few weeks ago, has seen his velocity dip over time, though. And he’s at an age where we shouldn’t expect that to rebound.

His spin rates actually improved across the board last year, relative to 2017, so there’s still a bit of upside in his offerings. At the very least, this is not a matter of his pitches slipping across the board as we saw with Allen.

Neither MLBTR nor FanGraphs have Holland among their top-fifty free agents, so there’s no contract prediction to be had. However, given his back-to-back one-year deals, his career-worst 2018, and his age, it stands to reason that he could be had on a one-year deal.

And, when it comes to a one-year deal, I’d be all-in on Holland. I wouldn’t expect his 2011-2014 greatness, nor would I count on him pitching as well as he did for the Nationals last year – but there’s enough there to suggest that he’s not quite done, and that his Cardinals struggles are not the new normal.

Ryan Madson

(Stacy Revere/Getty)

2018 Stats – 52.2 IP, 23.4 K%, 6.9 BB%, 42.6 GB%, 5.47 ERA, 3.98 FIP

Why is a 38-year-old reliever that had a 5.47 ERA last year on this list? There are reclamation projects, and there are lost causes, right? Maybe. Or maybe there’s a bit more to Madson’s 2018 season than meets the eye.

In late October, the Washington Post reported that Madson had been dealing with low-back pain that radiated down his front leg throughout the season, and didn’t have it straightened-out until August, when he made adjustments to his delivery. And then the Dodgers overhauled his approach after acquiring him in an August deal from the Nationals, and it paid dividends.

Sure, Madson’s 6.48 ERA with the Dodgers looks ugly; but he had a 36.1 K% and a 2.8 BB%, and was largely done in by a ridiculous .429 BABIP. His 1.96 FIP in Dodger Blue tells a better story of how he was in those stretch-run appearances. The Dodgers leaned on Madson heavily in the playoffs, calling upon him 11 times, and he responded admirably, pitching to a 2.08 ERA in 8.2 IP.

The Dodgers overhaul of Madson’s approach manifested in his pitch selection:

He basically shelved his four-seamer, which was his most hittable offering, and the whiffs returned. That’s the sort of thing that the Yankees coaching staff is all about – and Madson’s already had some success doing it. And, despite his age, velocity isn’t an issue:

As was the case with Holland, there aren’t many contract estimates out there for Madson. And why would there be? He’s a 38-year-old reliever, after all. But, given his apparent health, new approach, and still-strong velocity, he might just be a bargain on a one-year deal. And I would be happy to see that deal be with the Yankees … as long as he’s not the premier reliever signed this off-season.