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Hot Stove Rumors: Machado, Britton, Gray, Profar

January 4, 2019 by Mike

I don’t self-promote often, but I am going to do my civic duty and link to my CBS post ranking the top 50 players in baseball five years from now. Who’s No. 1? You probably already know! Anyway, there’s that. Now here are the latest offseason rumblings as the hot stove continues to run cold.

Machado’s agent is “barely engaging” teams

According to Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d), neither Manny Machado nor Bryce Harper appear close to signing, and in fact Machado’s agent Dan Lozano is “barely engaging” teams right now. He’s remaining patient and waiting for either an interested team to up their offer, or another team to jump into the mix. These things can change in a hurry, but, right now, it doesn’t sound like Machado is close to picking a team. His market is reportedly down to the Yankees, Phillies, and White Sox.

Earlier this week I said it seems Machado is holding up the rest of the offseason. My thinking was that, once he signs, interest in Harper will pick up, and teams that miss out on Machado will begin to look at other free agents. That was probably overly optimistic on my part. It reminds me of last offseason when we were all saying things would pick up once Shohei Ohtani signed and Giancarlo Stanton was traded. It never really happened. When a 26-year-old on a Hall of Fame track doesn’t have teams falling all over themselves to sign him, you know baseball is broken.

Yankees now “focused” on Britton

With David Robertson having signed with the Phillies, the Yankees are now “focused” on re-signing Zach Britton, report Jon Heyman and Brendan Kuty. Other teams are involved and Jayson Stark says Britton and Scott Boras are holding out for a four-year contract. They’ll probably settle for a three-year deal (with an option?), which is still one year too long for my liking, but what I think doesn’t matter.

Britton turned 31 last month and he had a 3.10 ERA (4.22 FIP) in 40.2 total innings after returning from Achilles surgery last year. He was at his best late in the season, as he got further away from the surgery, but he still wasn’t peak Orioles Zach Britton. The Yankees’ infield defense is pretty sketchy as currently constituted and that doesn’t seem to be a good fit for such a ground ball reliant pitcher. Strikeouts are the way to go.

Yankees, Braves, Rangers talked three-way trade with Gray, Profar

According to Jeff Passan, there was “traction” at one point on a three-way trade that would’ve sent Sonny Gray to the Braves and Jurickson Profar to the Yankees. Atlanta would’ve sent a prospect(s) to Texas. We heard the Yankees had interest in Profar and the Braves had interest in Gray earlier this winter, so that makes sense. Alas, the Rangers sent Profar to the Athletics in a three-team trade with the Rays. Texas received four prospects in the deal.

We’ll see what the Yankees get in the inevitable Gray trade, but I have a hard time thinking it’ll be better than Profar. He was my ideal Didi Gregorius replacement. Profar appears poised to finally take off and become one of the game’s top players. Of course, the Braves and Rangers had a say in this as well, and it sounds like the potential three-team trade fell apart because those clubs weren’t satisfied. So it goes. For what it’s worth (nothing), I acquired Profar in a three-team trade involving Gray in my 2018-19 Offseason Plan. Loved him as Gregorius fill-in and super utility guy.

Looking for under-the-radar middle infielders the Yankees could target this offseason

January 3, 2019 by Mike

Earlier this week the Yankees made a big name depth pickup by agreeing to a one-year deal with Troy Tulowitzki. Because the Blue Jays owe him $38M the next two years, the Yankees only have to pay him the $555,000 league minimum. The Blue Jays probably won’t contend in 2019, but gosh, Tulowitzki getting a big hit against the Blue Jays on Toronto’s dime would be some Grade-A trolling.

Anyway, Tulowitzki is a big name and not much more at this point. Sure, we’ve all seen the “he looked great at his recent workout” stories these last few weeks, but we see those about countless players every offseason. Who’s the last player who had a bad workout? Exactly. The fact of the matter is Tulowitzki has not played in an MLB game since July 2017, and, when he did last play, he wasn’t very good. This is nothing more than a league minimum roll of the dice.

Reports indicate the Tulowitzki signing won’t stand in the way of a Manny Machado signing, and why would it? You don’t let anyone stand in the way of a Manny Machado signing, especially not a 34-year-old reclamation project who hasn’t played in 18 months. I reckon Tulowitzki won’t stand in the way of anything. If another good middle infield option comes along, the Yankees will pounce, and sort out the roster later. The more good players, the better.

Two weeks ago I tried to dig up some under-the-radar bullpen targets using skills the Yankees value, specifically spin rate and swing-and-miss rate. The Yankees love relievers who can spin the ball and miss bats. Every team does, but the Yankees especially. In last week’s chat, commenter PJ suggested I do something similar for position players, and seeing how the Yankees are set pretty much everywhere except the middle infield, that’s the place to look.

What skills do the Yankees value in hitters? The skills that led them to Luke Voit: Exit velocity and launch angle. They love hitters who hit the ball hard and hit the ball in the air. This past season the Yankees had the fourth highest average exit velocity (89.0 mph) and ninth lowest ground ball rate (41.6%) in baseball. Three-hundred-and-forty-four players batted at least 400 times from 2017-18. Their hard hit and ground ball rates:

The red dots are Yankees. The blue dots are everyone else. There are 22 red dots in the plot and I count eleven that are either in the “lots of hard fly balls” quadrant or very close to it. And you know what? Most of the eleven that aren’t are gone. Those players aren’t on the team anymore. The red dots in the “lots of weak grounders” quadrant include Starlin Castro, Chase Headley, Matt Holliday, and Ronald Torreyes. (Torreyes is the red dot at the bottom.)

Hitting the ball hard and hitting the ball in the air are two qualities the Yankees value in their hitters. How else do you think they set a new Major League home run record in 2018? There is more to being a position player than hitting the ball hard — defense matters too, for example — but I figure hitting the ball hard in the air consistently is a good starting point for a potential under-the-radar target search.

Last season 448 players received at least 100 plate appearances. Only 139 of those 448 players combined an above-average hard hit rate with a lower than average ground ball rate, and most of those 139 are the game’s best players. Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt, etc. Also, not many of them are middle infielders. A few are though, and some of them are available as free agents. Others could be trade targets. Here are five who caught my eye.

SS Nick Ahmed, Diamondbacks

Hard Hit Rate: 39.2%
Ground Ball Rate: 40.8%
2018 Slash Line: .234/.290/.411 (84 wRC+)
2019 Steamer Projection: .237/.294/.382 (72 wRC+)

The skinny: The Yankees have had interest in Ahmed in the past, and the D’Backs are selling, so he figures to be available. The 28-year-old does his best work in the field — he’s a stellar defensive shortstop — and last season he cranked a career high 16 homers. Not surprisingly, his hard contact rate ticked up and his ground ball rate ticked down.

“I’m trying to do damage every time I go up there. I’m not trying to buy into this, really, launch angle, high fly ball, home run-or-nothing approach,” said Ahmed to Kevin Zimmerman in August. Maybe he wasn’t trying to become a launch angle guy, but that’s what he became, and as a result he had his best offensive season to date. Of course, he was still a below-average hitter overall, but a sub-.300 OBP with 16 homers is better than a sub-.300 OBP with single-digit homers.

Contract status: Ahmed has two years of team control remaining and MLBTR projects a $3.1M salary in 2019. Like I said, the D’Backs are in selling mode now, so I’m certain they’re at least willing to listen to offers for their shortstop. The Yankees have had success with former Arizona shortstops, you know.

Yay or nay? I’m a nay on this. I fully acknowledge that, at worst, Ahmed would play the hell out of shortstop while Didi Gregorius is sidelined, surely better than the 34-year-old Tulowitzki would. I just feel like there are comparable players available for nothing but cash in free agency.

SS Freddy Galvis, Free Agent

Hard Hit Rate: 40.3%
Ground Ball Rate: 41.4%
2018 Slash Line: .248/.309/.382 (85 wRC+)
2019 Steamer Projection: .244/.295/.370 (79 wRC+)

The skinny: Galvis is one of those free agents who is comparable to Ahmed. He turned 29 earlier this offseason and his 45 home runs the last three years are somehow 22nd most among middle infielders. Galvis is also a really good defensive shortstop and, for what it’s worth, he’s regarded as an excellent clubhouse dude. As a cheap stopgap, you could do worse. The Yankees have had interest in him.

Contract status: Galvis is a free agent and I imagine he’s looking at a low cost one-year deal. His contract upside is probably the two-year, $8M contract the Red Sox gave Eduardo Nunez last winter. Maybe he could push a team to $10M or $12M. Maybe.

Yay or nay? I think yay. I feel better about Galvis contributing on at least one side of the ball this coming season than I do Tulowitzki, and it is only money, so who cares about that. You’d have to trade prospects to get Ahmed. Galvis is available for cash.

IF Jedd Gyorko, Cardinals

Hard Hit Rate: 37.1%
Ground Ball Rate: 39.9%
2018 Slash Line: .262/.346/.416 (110 wRC+)
2019 Steamer Projection: .247/.321/.421 (103 wRC+)

The skinny: I still contend that, among cheap stopgap options, Gyorko is the best middle infield bet for the Yankees. He’s a solid hitter — not a great hitter, but a solid hitter who gets on base and will put a mistake in the seats — and a solid defender who can play second or third, and even short in a pinch. Also, because the Padres are paying a chunk of his salary, his 2019 luxury tax hit will be $920,000. Realistically, Tulowitzki and Gyorko are the only veteran stopgaps available with six-figure luxury tax hits, and I feel much better about Gyorko being productive this coming season than I do Tulowitzki.

Contract status: Like I said, Gyorko’s luxury tax hit is $920,000 for the coming season. Between his $13M salary and the $1M buyout of his $13M club option for 2020, the Yankees would owe him $9M in 2019 once you subtract out the $5M the Padres are paying him. That’s $9M in real money. The luxury tax hit is only $920,000 though. Can’t beat that.

Yay or nay? I’m a hard yay. Well, it depends what the Cardinals want in return, though it seems possible they’ll be willing to unload him in a salary dump deal to free up money for other things. They don’t have a clear path to playing time for Gyorko at the moment. If they insist on a top prospect or an MLB piece, forget it. If they’ll take a second tier prospect or two, sign me up.

2B Rougned Odor, Rangers

Hard Hit Rate: 45.2%
Ground Ball Rate: 41.1%
2018 Slash Line: .253/.326/.424 (97 wRC+)
2019 Steamer Projection: .249/.307/.453 (97 wRC+)

The skinny: Odor is a good reminder that development is not linear. He had a 103 wRC+ as a 22-year-old in 2016 and a 58 wRC+ (!) as a 23-year-old in 2017. Last year he bounced back to a 97 wRC+. Odor turns only 25 in February and he already has a pair of 30-homer seasons under his belt, plus he’s a Yankee Stadium friendly left-handed pull hitter. His 2016-18 spray chart:

For whatever reason Odor seems to get on people’s nerves, but step back and look at the big picture, and you’ve got a soon-to-be 25-year-old middle infielder who’s a good defender and has already shown 30-homer power. That’s an interesting little ballplayer, no? The Rangers are rebuilding too. They traded Jurickson Profar and Alex Claudio last month and Cole Hamels, Jake Diekman, and Keone Kela at the deadline. I’m sure they’re open to discussing Odor.

Contract status: The Rangers signed Odor to a six-year contract worth $49.5M during Spring Training 2017. The deal carries an $8.25M luxury tax hit and will pay him $7.5M in 2019, $9M in 2020, and $12M in both 2021 and 2022. There’s also a $13.5M club option ($3M buyout) for 2023. Trade for him right now and his luxury tax hit is lower than his actual salary in three of the four guaranteed years left on the deal.

Yay or nay? I think I’m a yay. Odor is probably worth a deeper look at some point, but again, he’s a soon-to-be 25-year-old middle infielder with Yankee Stadium friendly lefty power and good defensive chops. Remove the name and any preexisting biases and wouldn’t a player like that interest you? The Yankees could, in theory, trade for Odor and move forward with him and Gleyber Torres on the middle infield, and wave goodbye to Gregorius after the season. Ultimately, it depends on the price. I don’t think Texas would give Odor away and I can’t say I’m eager to trade top prospects for him either.

SS Dansby Swanson, Braves

Hard Hit Rate: 35.6%
Ground Ball Rate: 42.4%
2018 Slash Line: .238/.304/.395 (80 wRC+)
2019 Steamer Projection: .248/.322/.390 (87 wRC+)

The skinny: The No. 1 pick in the 2015 draft has thoroughly underwhelmed at the MLB level. Swanson is a .243/.314/.369 (76 wRC+) hitter in over 1,200 big league plate appearances, and, when you look at what guys like Alex Bregman (No. 2 pick in 2015), Andrew Benintendi (No. 7), and Walker Buehler (No. 24) are doing right now, it’s hard not to be disappointed. That said, we are still talking about a 24-year-old kid here, a kid with a lot of talent who’s already established himself as a comfortably above-average defensive shortstop. Swanson barely meets our “better than average hard hit and ground ball rates” criteria, but he does meet it, and it’s not difficult to dream on him even given his pedigree.

Contract status: Swanson has two years and 47 days of service time, so he comes with four seasons of team control. He’ll be a pre-arbitration player in 2019 and arbitration-eligible from 2020-22. Also, Swanson has all three minor league options remaining, so he can be sent to Triple-A with ease, if necessary. That would come in handy for a “play Swanson at short until Gregorius returns, then send him down for regular at-bats if he’s still not hitting” scenario.

Yay or nay? I am a definite yay here. This is Didi Gregorius and Aaron Hicks again, right? A former top prospect who’s struggling to find his way in the big leagues. Buy low on him and hope you can get him to blossom in your uniform. Sometimes it works (Didi, Hicks), sometimes it doesn’t (Dustin Ackley), but it’s worth a try. The Braves could trade Swanson to address another roster need (outfield? bullpen?) and roll with Ozzie Albies and Johan Camargo on the infield. Would they sell-low on Swanson? My guess is no, but it never hurts to ask. I’d roll the dice on a young player like this every day of the week.

* * *

Several prominent free agents (Jed Lowrie, Asdrubal Cabrera) and trade candidates (Whit Merrifield, Scooter Gennett) appear on our list of hard contact/fly ball hitters, unsurprisingly, but I wanted to focus on under-the-radar types, the guys who aren’t getting a lot of buzz. The Yankees have Tulowitzki as an insurance policy now. I don’t think they’ll let him stand in the way should a better option comes along though. Calling the middle infield situation settled would be unwise.

There is obviously much more to life than hard contact rates and ground ball rates. Defense matters, contact rate matters, plate discipline matters. Generally speaking though, if you hit the ball hard and you can hit it in the air, the Yankees will gravitate toward you. You can’t fake exit velocity — you can fake being a .300 hitter for a week, but you can’t fake a 110 mph exit velocity — and getting the ball in the air against MLB caliber pitching isn’t easy. Guys who can do it consistently are worth considering, especially while Gregorius is sidelined.

Hot Stove Rumors: Reliever Market, Gray, Harrison, Profar

December 31, 2018 by Mike

As expected, hot stove news has slowed to a crawl over the holidays. It’s been pretty quiet this last week or so and it’ll probably stay that way for another few days, at least until Yusei Kikuchi’s 30-day negotiating period expires Wednesday. The Yankees had interest in him at one point. The J.A. Happ signing may’ve changed things though. Anyway, here are the latest hot stove rumblings.

Yankees focusing on bullpen

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees are focusing on the bullpen as they wait for Manny Machado to make his decision. Zach Britton, Adam Ottavino, and David Robertson are all in play and it is possible the Yankees could sign more than one top reliever. Part of me wonders if the Yankees will blow it out and spend a ton of money should they manage to sign Machado, leading to two reliever signings. Once they’re over the luxury tax threshold, might as well go all out, you know? Otherwise they might stick to the luxury tax threshold (again).

Ottavino and especially Britton have been connected to the Yankees pretty much all offseason. Things have been oddly quiet with Robertson, however. There was that weird postseason shares story, which, if you’re a conspiracy theorist, could’ve been planted to turn fans on Robertson as the Yankees let him walk. Wouldn’t be the first time a team has done that. I don’t think that’s the case though. I very much prefer Robertson to literally every other free agent reliever on the market. Hopefully the two sides can hammer out a deal at some point.

Brewers and Padres still after Gray, Reds fading

The Brewers and Padres remain involved in Sonny Gray trade talks, report Jon Morosi and AJ Cassavell. The Reds, meanwhile, are starting to fade out of the picture after adding Tanner Roark and Alex Wood in recent weeks. I guess Cincinnati doesn’t want to dip into their farm system again to acquire another one-year rental. Eleven teams were in on Gray earlier this offseason and the Yankees have since whittled that list down to the most serious trade suitors.

I am surprised 2018 is just about over and Gray is still a Yankee. Chances are the Yankees are waiting until the right deal comes along — Spring Training is still six weeks away, so there’s no rush — though I suppose they could’ve decided to keep Sonny as a sixth starter/swingman, or that Brian Cashman’s public trade declarations have backfired. It seems to me the Yankees and Gray have reached the point of no return. He’ll be traded at some point. Maybe to the Brewers or Padres, or maybe somewhere else entirely. I’ll be surprised if Gray’s still a Yankee when pitchers and catchers report on February 13th.

Yankees still “in play” for Harrison

The Yankees are among the teams still “in play” for free agent infielder Josh Harrison, reports Heyman. He’s a popular guy, apparently. Heyman list both contenders (Brewers, Dodgers, Nationals, Phillies) and rebuilders (Giants, Rangers) among his suitors. The Yankees could use Harrison at second base before shifting him into a true utility role once Didi Gregorius returns from Tommy John surgery.

Harrison, 31, hit .250/.293/.363 (78 wRC+) with eight homers and three steals in 97 games this past season. He’s a year removed from a .272/.339/.432 (104 wRC+) batting line — that was propped up by an uncharacteristic 23 hit-by-pitches though — and can play pretty much any position, which is not nothing. The Yankees have had trade interest in Harrison in the past too. There are better middle infield options on the board right now (Machado, Jed Lowrie, DJ LeMahieu, etc.) and my preference is going after those guys before settling for Harrison.

Yankees had interest in Profar

Before he was traded to the Athletics, the Yankees had interest in Rangers infielder Jurickson Profar, reports Gerry Fraley. They weren’t willing to give up much to get him, apparently. Texas received four good but not great Double-A prospects plus international bonus money in the three-team trade. The A’s gave up an okay big league reliever (Emilio Pagan), a good Double-A prospect, international bonus money, and a Competitive Balance Round draft pick in the deal. Oakland won’t miss any of that.

Profar, 25, hit .254/.335/.458 (108 wRC+) with 20 homers and ten steals this past season. Shoulder injuries wrecked his 2014-15 seasons and he finally started to look his old tippy top prospect self in 2018. Profar was the position player centerpiece of my 2018-19 Offseason Plan because I think he’s on the cusp of breaking out as one of the game’s best players. The Yankees have had interest in him in the past and I was hoping they’d make a run at him again this offseason. Alas. It didn’t really happen.

2018 Winter Meetings Rumors Thread: Wednesday

December 12, 2018 by Mike

The Winter Meetings are two days old and thus far the Yankees have been mentioned in one potential blockbuster, a three-team trade that would bring Noah Syndergaard to the Bronx, but that seems like a long shot. It always did. The Mets trading three years of Syndergaard to get two years of J.T. Realmuto doesn’t add up. The Yankees will (probably) have to come up with a starting pitcher another way.

“We have our comfort levels and if and whenever we do match up on the trade or free agent front, then we’ll have something to show for it, but there’s no guarantee that will happen anytime soon,” said Brian Cashman to Pete Caldera. “(A deal) could happen today. We’re very active. But at the same time, we’re disciplined about what we’re willing to do and what we’re not willing to do.”

In addition to the Syndergaard thing, we’ve learned the Yankees are open to trading Miguel Andujar, still have interest in Zach Britton, and will meet with Manny Machado and Bryce Harper at some point. The Harper meeting will take place during the Winter Meetings because he lives in Las Vegas. Machado will come visit the Yankees in New York. No moves so far this week but lots of chatter.

Here are Monday’s rumors and Tuesday’s rumors. Today is the final full day of the Winter Meetings — everyone will head home after the Rule 5 Draft tomorrow — so, if the Yankees are going to get a deal done in Las Vegas, it’ll probably happen today. Anyway, here are today’s Yankees-related rumors. This post will be updated throughout the day so check back often. All timestamps are Eastern Time:

7:07pm: Well, forget about a Lance Lynn reunion. The Rangers gave him a three-year deal worth $30M, according to multiple reports. Imagine?
5:31pm: “I’ve never heard the Yankees say (they’re out on Bryce Harper). It might be that they say things to you. I wasn’t there,” said Scott Boras today. Keep in mind Boras wants everyone to think the Yankees are in on Harper even if they’re not. [Ken Davidoff]
3:20pm: The Yankees remain in “active discussions” with the Reds about Sonny Gray. Cincinnati seems to be connected to everyone this winter, including Corey Kluber. [Jon Morosi]
3:18pm: The Yankees have discussed trade possibilities with the Indians regarding their starting pitchers. There is no traction at the moment because the asking price is quite high. [Marc Carig]
2:00pm: The Yankees have been in contact with Freddy Galvis‘ representatives. He’s an excellent defender with double-digit homer power but poor on-base skills (career .290 OBP). Obviously the Yankees are considering him as a potential Didi Gregorius replacement. [Joel Sherman]
11:14am: In addition to J.A. Happ, the Yankees are in the mix for Lance Lynn. I would be perfectly fine with Lynn as a long man/sixth starter type. As the Opening Day fifth starter? Nah. Seems like there’s enough interest in Lynn that he’ll get a rotation spot elsewhere and not have to settle for a swingman role with the Yankees. [Mark Feinsand]
9:56am: The Yankees have not yet given any thought to signing Troy Tulowitzki. The Blue Jays released Tulowitzki with two years and $38M remaining on his contract yesterday, so any team can sign him for the pro-rated portion of the league minimum. Tulowitzki did not play at all this past season due to heel trouble but he’s recovered and is working out this winter. [Brendan Kuty]
9:43am: Brian Cashman met with Adam Ottavino‘s agent last night. He is believed to be high on their wish list. Ottavino grew up in Brooklyn but I wouldn’t put much stock into the hometown thing. Money is usually the determining factor in free agency. [Joel Sherman]
9:30am: The Phillies are believed to be inching closer to a deal with J.A. Happ, who is holding out for a three-year contract. “They are bringing it,” said one executive. The Yankees have interest in a reunion with Happ but thus far have been unwilling to offer a third year. [George King]
9:30am: Internally, it was “never even much of a debate” for the Yankees to chase J.T. Realmuto. They value Gary Sanchez highly and he has four years of team control remaining whereas Realmuto only has two. [Joel Sherman]

Hot Stove Rumors: Cano, Ellsbury, Goldschmidt, Sheffield, Gray

November 26, 2018 by Mike

I do miss that swing. (Stephen Lam/Getty)

Thanksgiving weekend is over and the hot stove is starting to heat up. Earlier today the Braves signed both Brian McCann (one year, $2M) and Josh Donaldson (one year, $23M), so the defending NL East champs are makin’ moves. The Yankees still have a lot to do this offseason even after re-signing Brett Gardner and CC Sabathia, and trading for James Paxton. Here are the latest hot stove rumblings.

Yankees, Mariners talked Cano for Ellsbury

Earlier this offseason the Yankees and Mariners briefly discussed a Robinson Cano for Jacoby Ellsbury trade, reports Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d). Talks didn’t advance much because the Yankees wanted Seattle to include “significant cash” in the trade in addition to taking Ellsbury. Cano has five years and $120M remaining on his contract. Ellsbury has two years and $47M. Rosenthal adds the Yankees are wary about having to commit their DH spot to Cano down the line. There are also two no-trade clauses to navigate (Robbie would probably okay a trade back to New York in a heartbeat).

Cano, 36, hit .303/.374/.471 (136 wRC+) with ten homers in 80 games around his performance-enhancing drug suspension this year. The Yankees could stick him at second until Didi Gregorius returns, then slide him over to first base, which he played briefly in 2018. Cano is a better player than Ellsbury, there’s little doubt about that, but those last five years on his contract could be heavy decline years. The Yankees limited their offer to seven years back when Cano was a free agent because they wanted to avoid those age 38-40 seasons, remember. When we’re talking two years vs. five years in a bad contract swap, my preference is the shorter deal. Just get it over with, you know?

Yankees pushed Sheffield in Goldschmidt talks

According to Buster Olney (subs. req’d), the Yankees pushed Justus Sheffield in trade talks with the Diamondbacks about Paul Goldschmidt before sending Sheffield to the Mariners in the Paxton deal. Actually, Olney says “rival executives report” the Yankees pushed Sheffield in Goldschmidt talks, which is an important distinction. This is a secondhand rumor. Hmmm.

Three weeks ago we heard the Yankees had not yet shown interest in Goldschmidt, though things could’ve easily changed since then. And, even though Goldschmidt will be a free agent next winter, it wouldn’t be unreasonable for the D’Backs to seek a Sheffield caliber prospect in return. Goldschmidt’s really good! The Yankees pushing Sheffield in talks though? That’s interesting, assuming it’s true. This would hardly be the first time the Yankees weren’t as high on a prospect internally as they let on.

More teams showing interest in Gray

We can add four more teams to the Sonny Gray trade rumor mill. Nick Cafardo reports the Braves, Padres, Rangers, and Twins have expressed interest in Gray in recent weeks. The Athletics and Reds are in on him as well. I reckon more than those six teams are interested in Sonny. Even with only one relatively inexpensive year of control, he’s a good buy-low candidate who makes sense for contenders and rebuilders alike.

The Yankees are going to trade Gray at some point, Brian Cashman has made that very clear, and my hunch is it will happen fairly soon. Likely at some point before the Winter Meetings in two weeks. Trading Gray eliminates the distraction to some degree. More than anything though, it’ll provide clarity. What do the Yankees get in return? How much money do they save, if any? Answering those questions will help shape the rest of the offseason going forward.

Yankees trying to move Stanton?

There are “long-shot rumblings” the Yankees are trying to move Giancarlo Stanton, reports Cafardo. That’s a weird way to phrase it. “Long-shot rumblings?” Huh. Anyway, I don’t really buy this. I’m sure the Yankees are open to moving Stanton because they’re open to moving anyyone in the right deal, but his no-trade clause complicates things, as does having to replace him. Dudes who hit 38 homers with a 127 wRC+ in a down year are hard to find.

The Yankees could of course trade Stanton and replace him by signing Bryce Harper (or Manny Machado), but get outta here with that. For starters, the Yankees should be trying to add Harper (or Machado) to Stanton, not replacing one with the other. And secondly, Stanton carries a $22M luxury tax hit and Harper (or Machado) will come in around 150% of that, if not more, for similar production. If the Yankees are going to obsess over payroll, and it sure seems like they are, Stanton’s the far better value. Well, whatever. There’s no sense in dwelling on this because it probably won’t happen.

Yankeemetrics: Going going gone, Bombers roll over Rangers (Aug. 9-12)

August 13, 2018 by Katie Sharp Leave a Comment

Bombs away
Back in the Bronx for a season-high 11-game homestand — their longest since June 2005 — a home run derby erupted as the Yankees beat up on the Rangers in series opener, 7-3. Aaron Hicks kicked off the fireworks with a two-run blast in the first inning, his 20th of the season. He is the fourth Yankee to reach that milestone this season, tied with the Indians for the most 20-homer players in MLB.

Hicks also is the third Yankee outfielder to hit 20 longballs this season. This is the fourth time in franchise history they’ve had three guys hit 20 homers and play at least 60 games in the outfield (yes, Stanton has played 60) in the same season.

2018: Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton
2004: Hideki Matsui, Gary Sheffield, Bernie Williams
1961: Yogi Berra, Mickey Mantle, Roger Maris
1941: Joe DiMaggio, Charlie Keller, Tommy Henrich

Miguel Andujar and Neil Walker launched back-to-back homers in the fourth inning, Stanton added a massive laser shot in the fifth and Walker capped the dinger party with another solo shot in the sixth.

Stanton’s 449-foot missile left his bat at 121.7 mph, the fastest exit velocity of any home run measured by Statcast (since 2015), and the hardest-hit ball — out or hit — in the majors this season. Another #StatcastFunFact: through Thursday there have been 10 batted balls with an exit velocity of 119 mph or more this season … and all 10 were hit by Yankees (Sanchez and Judge each have one, Stanton has eight).

For Walker, it was his sixth career multi-homer game but the first time he’s homered from both sides of the plate in the same game. Walker is the only player in franchise history to achieve the feat as a second baseman in a game.

Bombs away, the enemy version
The Rangers got revenge on Friday night with their own dinger party, crushing four homers to beat Yankees, 12-7. Masahiro Tanaka’s gopheritis returned as he coughed up three homers and was torched for six runs in five innings. He had been excellent in his first five starts off the DL, posting a 1.78 ERA with 36 strikeouts in 30 1/3 innings, but regressed badly on Friday night:

Masahiro Tanaka Since Return from DL

Tonight:
5 IP, 6 Runs, 3 HR

Previous 5 starts:
30.1 IP, 6 Runs, 3 HR

— Katie Sharp (@ktsharp) August 11, 2018

Rangers first baseman Ronald Guzman stole the highlights with his unprecedented three-homer night, becoming the first rookie ever to go deep three times against the Yankees. At the age of 23 years and 294 days old, he also was the second-youngest player to hit a trio of bombs against the Bronx Bombers, behind only Indians outfielder Pat Seerey (22 years, 118 days) on July 13, 1945.

Austin Romine earns our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series for his huge effort, going 3-for-4 with a homer and a steal(!) while driving in three runs. He is the sixth Yankee catcher with a home run, a steal and at least three RBI in a game, and the first do it since Thurman Munson on June 15, 1976 vs Twins. The other guys were Jake Gibbs (1971), Yogi Berra (1958), Bill Dickey (1938, 1932) and Eddie Phillips (1932).

Mighty Miggy saves the day
The Yankees pulled out an ugly 5-3 win on a rainy Saturday at the Stadium, surviving a bullpen meltdown thanks to another clutch hit by Miguel Andujar. Lance Lynn delivered a third straight solid outing in pinstripes, and the one run he allowed in the third inning is the only scoring blemish on his Yankee resume so far.

Lance Lynn with Yankees:
16.2 IP
1 R
22 K
4 BB
0 HR

— Katie Sharp (@ktsharp) August 11, 2018

He also etched his name in the Yankeemetric record books with these two #FunFacts:

Lynn is first player in franchise history to begin his Yankee career with three consecutive games of no more than one earned run allowed and at least five strikeouts.
He is also the first guy to strike out at least eight batters and give up no more than one earned run each of his first two starts as a Yankee.

Miguel Andujar rehashed his role of clutch-hitting hero with a two-run, opposite field blast in the seventh inning that broke a 3-3 tie. It was his fourth go-ahead hit in the seventh inning or later this season, the most on the team thru Saturday. The only other Yankee rookies over the last 25 years to compile four go-ahead hits in the seventh or later are Nick Johnson (2002) and Derek Jeter (1996).

Ace Sabathia
Backed by a vintage gem from CC Sabathia and more bombs from the bats, the Yankees clinched the series win over the Rangers with a 7-2 win on Sunday. They still have lost just one series at home this season, April 5-8 against the Orioles.

The seven-run, two-homer outburst extended a couple notable streaks.

14th straight home game scoring at least five runs, tied for the second-longest such streak in franchise history (also had 14-game streak in 1937). The only longer one is a 21-gamer by the 1938 team.
Seventh straight game with multiple homers, tied for the second-longest such streak in Yankees history (also had 7-game streaks in 2014, 1986, 1955, 1937). The only longer streak is nine games during the 2009 season.
23 homers in seven games against the Rangers this season, their most home runs hit against any opponent in a season series of 10 or fewer games.

CC Sabathia carved through the Rangers lineup with his signature arsenal of well-located cutters and sliders, allowing a season-low one hit — a dribbler in front of the plate. The only ball in play he allowed to the outfield (excluding Andujar’s error) was a warning-track flyout in the third inning. Otherwise, lots of groundouts and seven strikeouts:

Only two other Yankees as old as (or older than) the 38-year-old Sabathia have pitched a game with at least seven strikeouts and no more than one hit allowed — Randy Johnson (in 2005 and 2006) and Roger Clemens (in 2001 and 2003).

Sabathia did have to pitch around six baserunners, but did so masterfully, with six scoreless innings. He’s held batters to a .156 batting average with runners in scoring position this season, the third-lowest in the AL and seventh-lowest in MLB among qualified starters.

Giancarlo Stanton lit up the scoreboard early with a bullet line drive homer in the first inning, his 30th of the season. It was also his 16th longball in a two-strike count, tied for the most in MLB this season. Looking ahead … no Yankee since 1988 (when we have official pitch count data) has finished a season with at least 20 homers and more than half of them coming in two-strike counts.

8/9 to 8/12 Series Preview: Texas Rangers

August 9, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

Tonight kicks off an eleven game homestand, eight of which are against teams that are comfortably below .500. This is a great opportunity for the Yankees to put some distance between themselves and the A’s, which would solicit a much needed sigh of relief. Seeing them take care of business against the rebuilding White Sox was great – but they have to continue to beat-up on the bad teams.

The Rangers are up first.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees visited Texas back in May, and they dropped two of three. Poor pitching was the issue back then, as the staff allowed seven home runs and 23 runs to the last-place Rangers. It wasn’t a great look. Some notes from the series:

The Yankees had won eight consecutive series heading into this match-up.
Gleyber Torres homered twice off of Bartolo Colon. Why is that interesting (aside from the fact that everything Torres does is interesting)? Torres was three months old when Colon made his major league debut.
Torres had a stellar series in general, going 5-for-12 with four runs scored, four home runs, and seven RBI. That’s good for a 1.878 OPS.
Eleven pitchers took the mound for the Rangers in the series. Four of them – Cole Hamels, Keone Kela, Jake Diekman, and Jesse Chavez – were traded in the days leading up to the deadline.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more points of interest.

Injury Report

The Rangers currently have a starter (Doug Fister), two relievers (Tony Barnette and Matt Bush), and an entire outfield (Delino DeShields, Nomar Mazara, and Ryan Rua) on the disabled list. There’s a chance that DeShields and Mazara could return during this series, but neither is a guarantee.

Their Story So Far

Texas is 51-65 with a -51 run differential, and are in the midst of a rebuild. Their 25-man roster currently has 10 players that are under the age of 25, and they’re one of the youngest teams in the majors – and that’s with Adrian Beltre (39) and Bartolo Colon (45) skewing the average age quite a bit. They’ve been allowing the kids to sink or swim all season, and they’ll continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

For what it’s worth, the Rangers are 9-3 in their last 12, with series victories over the Astros (a three-game sweep), Orioles, and Mariners. They’ve also been a .500-ish team since June 1, posting a 27-30 record, along with a +12 run differential.

The Lineup We Might See

Manager Jeff Banister is flexible with his lineups, owing to the positional flexibility of Jurickson Profar (all four infield positions and left field), Joey Gallo (first and all three outfield spots) and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (second, third, short, and catcher). He’s also a proponent of giving his position players regular rest. That being said, we’ll probably see something like this:

Shin-Soo Choo, DH – .270/.384/471, 20 HR, 3 SB, 124 OPS+
Rougned Odor, 2B – .273/.351/.484, 14 HR, 9 SB, 117 OPS+
Elvis Andrus, SS – .283/.332/.422, 4 HR, 4 SB, 97 OPS+
Adrian Beltre, 3B – .280/.336/.390, 6 HR, 0 SB, 91 OPS+
Jurickson Profar, 1B – .252/.338/.449, 6 HR, 0 SB, 105 OPS+
Joey Gallo, RF – .202/.314/.491, 31 HR, 3 SB, 107 OPS+
Robinson Chirinos, C – .223/.336/.447, 15 HR, 2 SB, 104 OPS+
Willie Calhoun, LF – .267/.303/.400, 1 HR, 0 SB, 83 OPS+
Carlos Tocci, CF – .190/.238/.241, 0 HR, 0 SB, 27 OPS+

Ronald Guzman (86 OPS+) and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (93 OPS+) will both see a couple of starts, as well.

Jurado sporting some sick shades. (Jon Durr/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Thursday (7:05 PM EST): LHP J.A. Happ vs. RHP Ariel Jurado

The 22-year-old Jurado spent parts of three seasons in Double-A (including all of 2017), and made his big league debut back in May. It’s sort of strange that he has never pitched in Triple-A – especially when you consider that he’s thrown over 300 IP at Double-A – but here we are. He has a 4.02 ERA through three starts (15.2 IP), with great walk (7.8%) and grounder (50.0%) rates, and a complete inability to strike people out (10.9%). And that all tracks with his time in Double-A, where he posted a 14.8 K% and 5.0 BB%.

Jurado is a sinker-baller through and through, as nearly three-quarters of his offerings are his heavy low-90s sinker. He also throws a low-90s four-seamer, a mid-80s slider, a mid-80s change-up, and a high-70s curve.

Last outing (vs. BAL on 8/3) – 5.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 3 K

Friday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. LHP Mike Minor

Minor was a promising young starter with the Braves in the first-half of this decade, but multiple shoulder injuries and surgery kept him from pitching in 2015 and 2016. He came back as a reliever with the Royals last year and was excellent, pitching to a 2.55 ERA with great peripherals in 77.2 IP. The Rangers signed him to a three-year deal this off-season and stuck him back in the rotation, and the results have been less than stellar. Minor has a 4.53 ERA (4.40 FIP) in 117.1 IP, with below-average strikeout and groundball rates. He’s managed to stay healthy with the increased workload, though.

Minor is a four-pitch guy, with a low-90s four-seamer, a mid-80s slider (his best offspeed pitch), a mid-80s change-up, and a low-80s curve.

Last outing (vs. BAL on 8/4) – 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 6 K

Saturday (1:05 PM EST): RHP Lance Lynn vs. RHP Drew Hutchison

You may remember Hutchison for his three-plus seasons in Toronto – he made nine starts against the Yankees, and posted a 3.78 ERA in 50.0 IP. He spent all of 2017 in the minors, though, and sports a career 5.01 ERA in 442.0 IP. He was DFA’d by the Phillies earlier in the season, picked up by the Dodgers, and opted out of his contract with them on August 1. He was picked up by the Rangers shortly thereafter, and has made one disastrous start so far.

Hutchison is a three-pitch pitcher, utilizing a low-90s four-seamer, a mid-80s slider, and a mid-80s change-up. He used to throw a sinker, as well, but he’s rarely using it nowadays.

Last outing (vs. BAL on 8/5) – 3.0 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 3 BB, 0 K

Sunday (1:05 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. LHP Martin Perez

Perez was a legitimate top prospect half a dozen years ago, but injuries and inconsistency have kept him from reaching his ceiling. He’s still only 27, so there’s still time – but he also has a 4.56 ERA (4.41 FIP) in 728.2 IP, and has struggled mightily in 2018 (6.15 ERA/6.04 FIP). Do you remember when prospect folk used to debate Manny Banuelos vs. Martin Perez? Because I do.

Perez is a sinkerballer, with more than half of his pitches being his low-90s sinker. He also mixes in a low-90s four-seamer, a mid-80s change-up, a mid-80s slider, and a big, high-70s curve.

Last outing (vs. SEA on 8/6) – 7.0 IP, 10 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 3 K

The Bullpen

The Rangers dealt their closer (the aforementioned Kela) to the Pirates at the deadline, and former closer Matt Bush is on the DL. Jose Leclerc (2.16 ERA, 35.2 K%) has taken over as the closer, and he’s been quite good all season. It’s a little bit of a mess behind him, though, as the team works around injuries and trades to sort out the middle innings. Alex Claudio (5.10 ERA) and Chris Martin (4.00 ERA) are usually in the mix.

Who (Or What) To Watch

Adrian Beltre is one of my favorite players, and he’s worth watching wherever he is, be it the field, the bench, or the batter’s box. I’m also intrigued by the resurgent Rougned Odor, who is walking in 8.4% of his PA, against a previous career-best of 4.9%.

In a general sense, though, I’m just looking for the Yankees to continue to take care of business.