River Avenue Blues

River Ave. Blues » Archives for Matt Imbrogno

What RAB Means to Me

by

(Al Bello/Getty)

I don’t remember exactly when I first discovered River Avenue Blues. I’m pretty sure it was during my junior year of college, either in fall 2007 or early 2008. And I’m pretty sure I came to it via sidebar link from the Pete Abraham incarnation of the LoHud Yankees Blog. Once I started reading it, then commenting, then moving to Twitter “with” many of the people in the comments section back then, then still continuing to read, up until the moment I was asked to, I never thought I’d be writing for it, let alone doing so for over four years. But even before April 12, 2015, I knew that RAB was a special place for Yankee fans and for me personally.

Being a Yankee fan of a millennial age meant that my formative baseball years were spent online, seeking connections to other fans, and that’s what I found here. In an approachable, casual way, Mike, Joe, and Ben wrote about wide-ranging topics that were lacking in most Yankee outlets, from prospects to analysis. Like with my first reading of the site, I don’t remember the first time I waded into the comments section. But once I did so, I was hooked. Here was a place for–most of the time–reasonable, rational discussion about all things Yankees. Every day or night, no matter the team’s state or mine, I could count on the people here for consistency of connection. When I watched a game–even if I was home alone or the only one around watching it–I had hundreds of fellow fans “with” me as the game went on.

More than any other place, RAB’s comments also inspired me to do my own writing, which led me all over the baseball internet. From my own blogspot site to Bronx Baseball Daily, to The Yankee Analysts/IIATMS, and finally to here, I was able to share my thoughts with you and so many others, thanks to this website. Writing on the internet, about my favorite team, for over ten years has been a source of joy and pride, however small. In life terms, that’s a long time on its own; in baseball terms, that’s even longer.

The day of my first post at RAB–5/12/15–the Yankees beat the Red Sox 14-4. Of the Yankees who appeared in that game, only Brett Gardner, Masahiro Tanaka, Didi Gregorius, and (technically) Jacoby Ellsbury are still on the team. To include anyone on the 2015 roster adds CC Sabathia, Greg Bird, Gary Sanchez, Luis Severino, Dellin Betances, and Austin Romine. Just like the team has changed, I have changed over time. Almost nothing from my 2015 self is the same for my 2019 self.

This is all to say that my life would not be the same without RAB exactly when and how and why I found it. Reading this website made me join its comments section. Joining that comment section made me write on my own and join Twitter. Writing on my own and joining Twitter allowed me to meet my wife, which eventually led to the birth of our son. In a very meaningful way, River Avenue Blues is responsible for the life I lead now, for the family I have now. It is not a stretch to say that this is the most important website of my life. Thank you to Mike, Joe, Ben, Jay, and the myriad other writers who’ve penned words for this site and the countless others who’ve read faithfully for so long. You have made my life as a baseball fan, a writer, and a person all the richer for it.

Feeling Young Again: The Transformation of CC Sabathia

by

(Mike Stobe/Getty)

While both were inevitable, the impending closures of RAB and CC Sabathia’s career still seem hard to fathom. Both have been fixtures for Yankee fans for over a decade now and 2020 and beyond will be strange without them for those of us that have known nothing but. Sabathia’s tenure with the Yankees has had three distinct sections: four years of excellence, three years of awfulness, and three plus of reinvention. When I looked that up, I could’ve sworn the bad period of his time here was longer. We were so used to Sabathia being so good for so long–before and during his time as a Yankee–that his struggles felt interminable.

They felt so interminable that in late June of 2015, I wrote a rather fatalistic piece about Sabathia’s struggles to that point. The opening:

To paraphrase The Wonder Years, growing up means watching your heroes turn human in front of you. This process is never easy in sports. Professional athletes have this marvelous–and marvelously frustrating–habit of making what they do look incredibly easy, like they could do it forever and ever, as naturally as anything you and I do. Then, the cliff shows up. Sometimes the decline is slow and gradual. Other times, the player pulls a Wile E. Coyote and looks down, plummeting dramatically. For CC Sabathia, and we Yankee fans who’ve had to “grow up” this season, it’s been a combination of those things. Sabathia’s performance has dropped off considerably, but it’s been going on for two and a half years now. Watching Sabathia, someone we’ve loved and revered for so long, go through this has been painful (granted, I’m sure it’s 100 times more painful for him).

And the closing:

I won’t pretend to know what the answer is for Sabathia because I’m not sure there really is one. He’s not the same type of pitcher that Andy Pettitte was, so an Andy-Style reinvention probably isn’t going to happen. This One Bad Inning Syndrome doesn’t scream “Make me a reliever!” either. But running him out there every fifth day has already been bad and probably won’t get better. Since 2013, we’ve had to watch CC turn from hero to human; I’m not sure if we’ll ever see him as a hero again. Growing up sucks.

At that point, and given the rest of the year, that sentiment made sense. But it turned out to be the wrong sentiment altogether. That wasn’t the end of Sabathia, but a new beginning. He did turn himself into an Andy Pettitte style pitcher, relying on a cutter and location to get hitters out instead of raw stuff. He’s leveraged that into consistently weak contact against him and since 2016, including his two starts this year, he’s had a 3.68 ERA. His innings totals–like his pitch speed–have dropped off, but he found a new way to be effective.

All of that speaks to the immense talent that Sabathia has as a pitcher. There are few pitchers that would be able to do what Sabathia has done to change himself, even if they wanted to (which I assume all of them would). When J.A. Happ jokingly asked CC about pitching to the corners during CC’s post game a week or so back, I thought of the difference between the two of them. Happ–never a flamethrower, but nonetheless effective–will likely have a harder time adjusting to aging because he’s starting from a lower level than Sabathia. That’s relatively speaking, of course, since Happ–like all professional athletes–is better at baseball than any of us will ever be at anything. Sabathia, though, is just that much better. Every MLB player is driven and motivated to succeed in many ways. But few have the talent to make it come true in more ways than one.

In closing, this brings me back to the song I referenced in that June 2015 post. The line I paraphrased is as follows: “Growing up means watching my heroes turn human in front of me.” And, again, at the time, that made sense. But I should’ve been paying attention to the next line of the song: “And the songs we wrote at eighteen seem shortsighted and naive.” It was right there in front of me and I was too shortsighted and naive to think CC would turn it around. Well, he did and endeared himself to Yankee fans more than he already had.

DJ LeMahieu’s Weird Batted Ball Profile

by

(Sarah Stier/Getty)

With literally half the projected Opening Day lineup on the Injured List, it’s been a struggle for the Yankees to find consistent performance from their hitters. Emerging from the pack has been infielder DJ LeMahieu. Predictably, he’s shined with the glove, whether at second or third. On offense, he entered Saturday’s action hitting .439/.489/.561, good for a .448 wOBA and a 186 wRC+. He’s done it, as evidenced by the .122 ISO, with little power, though, which led me to remark the other  night that a flyball to deep center was probably the deepest ball he’s hit all year. Regardless, what he’s doing has worked, so let’s take a look.

The first thing that sticks out is the .500 (!) BABIP. Per FanGraphs, that’s second highest in baseball, behind Tim Anderson’s insane .581 (!!) BABIP to start the year. The gap between DJLM in second and Elvis Andrus in third (.475) is higher than the gap between LeMahieu and Anderson. That’s obviously not sustainable, even for a high BABIP guy like LeMahieu (career .345 BABIP). Maybe he’s just hitting the ball really hard, right? That shows up in his profile, but even that’s a bit strange. His LD% is up, but so are his FB% and IFFB%, two things that would likely kill BABIP. Let’s check out Statcast and see what we can find.

My initial hunch about LeMahieu not hitting the ball too far appears to be correct. Among players with at least 30 batted ball events, he ranks 88th out of 171 in average distance at 174 feet. His max–375′–has him in 148th place. While it’s nice to have my ideas confirmed, it doesn’t tell us a whole lot about that high BABIP. Is he stinging the ball?  It appears that he is. He’s got 21 balls hit at 95+ MPH, good for 12th in the league. His percentage of hard hit balls (95+MPH) has him even higher at 6th place: 58.3%. His 92.5 average exit velocity puts him in the top 30 of MLB (28th place) as well, though his max exit velocity of 107.2 puts him 112th. So, basically, he hits the ball very hard, very often, but just not at the upper reaches of velocity and without hitting the ball all too far. It doesn’t seem, as a high BABIP sometimes suggests (or always suggests, according to broadcasters who still can’t grasp even the most basic of advanced stats…), that LeMahieu is getting overly lucky, even with those fly ball/IFFB increases. According to Statcast, his xWOBA is .367. There’s a pretty big difference between that and his actual wOBA, but .367 is still a damn good number–especially for someone as good in the field as he is–and, to me at least, suggests he’s just squaring things up right now, not running into a bunch of seeing-eye singles or dying quails.

I was skeptical of the LeMahieu signing, but so far, I’ve been flat out wrong about it. I’m glad to be, frankly, given how badly the Yankees need their healthy players to step up. DJLM is not going to keep this up all year, of course, but it’s nice to ride this hard contact wave while it’s happening.

The Same But Different: Tanaka and Paxton Debut Against Orioles

by

Tanaka. (Presswire)

At first glance, Masahiro Tanaka and James Paxton have little in common beyond their chosen profession and the team for which they play. Tanaka is Japanese; Paxton is Canadian. Tanaka is right-handed; Paxton is left-handed. Tanaka’s signature pitch is his splitter…or slider; Paxton’s is his fastball. But if we dig a touch deeper, they do have a similarity in careers and expectations.

Tanaka and Paxton are highly talented who don’t necessarily turn in big innings totals, which perhaps warps perceptions about their true talent levels or value to the teams for which they’ve pitched. Additionally, both carry big expectations for 2019, especially with Luis Severino sidelined with shoulder troubles. Paxton carries the additional weight of expectation after being acquired for then top pitching prospect Justus Sheffield. Both also made their debuts this past week against the Baltimore Orioles. Let’s see if they, despite different handedness and different styles had more similarities in their approaches or more differences.

Tanaka relied on a three pitch deployment of four-seamers (24), sliders (23), and splitters (25) to attack the Orioles, tossing 5.2 innings of two run ball (1 earned). He allowed six hits, no walks, and struck out five batters. For the record, Brooks also classified nine curveballs and two sinkers among his Thursday arsenal. Paxton likewise threw 5.2 innings, allowing two runs (one earned), four hits, and one walk while striking out six. His pitch mix was more limited: 59 four seamers, 18 cutters, and 15 knuckle curves. 

As pitchers ought to do, each went over 70% strikes with his fastball to set up the other pitches. Paxton, though, got nine whiffs on his fastball alone; Tanaka only had ten for his entire start. In Tanaka’s favor, he got three whiffs on his breaking ball–slider–whereas Paxton had just one on his knuckle curve. These results show themselves in each pitcher’s approach to location. First Tanaka, then Paxton:

BrooksBaseball.net
BrooksBaseball.net

While Tanaka stayed mostly down in the zone and to his arm side–inside on righties, outside on lefties–Paxton was more apt to scatter his pitches throughout the zone. Considering the overall stuff of each pitcher, this makes a lot of sense. Tanaka’s fastball averaged around 91-92 per Brooks and Paxton’s averaged a touch over 95. That extra three MPH means Paxton can work up in the zone and at both corners more easily than Tanaka can.

Overall, Tanaka and Paxton faced seven hitters in common and wound up with the same innings and runs totals, while showing strikeout stuff and good control. On most days–like Thursday–Paxton’s line on Saturday would be enough to earn a win. Sadly, that didn’t happen for him, but he pitched well in his debut nonetheless. Despite their differences in approaches and stuff, Paxton and Tanaka turned in similar showings in their season debuts and we should be pleased with both. Hopefully, these starts are a sign of things to come, a jumping off point for even better performances down the road.

Best Case, Worst Case

by

(Presswire)

We’ve made it, Yankee fans. Well, almost. The next time I write something, it will be about real games that really count. This long offseason is finally coming to a close, though as it seems to be the case with everything as I get older, it actually went pretty fast. Maybe it’s just me, but it felt like Spring Training sped by after the long crawl to it from October. Regardless of the passage of time our your perception thereof, we’re on the edge of a new season, ready to take the plunge.

The Yankees aren’t even close to escaping Spring Training unscathed. They’ll be missing ace Luis Severino for at least a month. Elsewhere in the rotation, fifth starter CC Sabathia will be suspended for five games, then placed on the injured list, pressing one of Domingo German or Luis Cessa into the rotation. Piling onto that, center fielder Aaron Hicks is going to be out with a bad back and his initial return date of April 4 is probably unrealistic. As is almost always the case, things could be worse, but this is hardly a ‘best case’ scenario.

The best case scenario for the Yankees–which we could argue is jeopardized by the injuries to start the season–is to mirror what the Red Sox did last year and improve on their already solid base of 100 wins in 2018. If the three key injured players all miss just a short time and do what they “should” do in 2019, there’s still a chance the Yankees could move from ‘team that wins a lot of games’ to ‘team that wins a LOT of games.’  Worst case scenario for these three? Severino needs shoulder surgery; CC’s age catches up to him; Hicks’s back prevents him from being productive or even seeing the field. Luckily, odds are that worst case won’t happen to all three of those guys. What about the rest of the team? Let’s take a look at each position group’s best and worst case scenario.

Infield 

The best case scenario here is really about the long game: Didi Gregorius returning to the field healthy while Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar repeat or improve from their excellent rookie years. Greg Bird and/or Luke Voit are both excellent, which would be a wonderful problem to have. DJ LeMahieu transitions well to a utility role and Tulo plays respectably before being replaced by the returning Didi. Gary Sanchez reverts to 2017 levels and makes everyone forget about 2018. The flip side of this coin is pretty easy to see: Didi has a setback; Tulo is a disaster; Torres and Andujar take big steps back; both Bird and Voit crash and burn; Sanchez doesn’t recover; LeMahieu can’t adjust, etc.

(Getty)

Outfield

Hicks being hurt, forcing Brett Gardner into center field, is already tipping towards the worst case scenario, isn’t it? The Yankees, as presently constructed, are setting themselves up for a worst case in the outfield, considering the lack of depth they have with Hicks out and Tyler Wade as the extra outfielder for the time being. If one of Giancarlo Stanton or Aaron Judge gets hurt–let alone Gardner, the only one we know is capable of playing Major League quality center field–things could get ugly in the outfield pretty quickly, even with Clint Frazier waiting in the wings. The best case scenario, though, is that Hicks recovers and, as planned, the Yankees have a dominant outfield. At absolute peak performance, this is a group capable of hitting 130 home runs all by itself and basically carrying the team, even if the worst happens in the infield.

Pitchers

One word tells us the worst that could happen to the pitchers, be they starters or relievers: injuries. Injuries mean lack of performance. Injuries mean depth gets depleted. Luckily, the Yankees have built a bullpen with such depth that it could withstand a major injury, if not two. In the rotation, that’s less the case, but that applies to most every team. In Sabathia and J.A. Happ, the Yankees are relying on some older players at the back end of the rotation, and that could be risky. The other three starters also carry injury risk–one is already hurt and the other two–James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka–are sure bets to miss some time during the season. Aroldis Chapman’s knee could act up. Dellin Betances is already hurt and is potentially in shoulder injury purgatory.

But the Yankee pitching staff has incredible, ridiculous upside. The top three starters are all ace caliber and you could do a lot worse than a borderline HOF fifth starter and a solid as anything fourth starter. The bullpen is almost an absurdity, given its talent and performance record. The best case scenario for the Yankee pitching staff is being the best in the league and it’s not like you have to squint for that to come into view.

Despite the high profile moves they didn’t make this offseason, the Yankees remain one of the most talented teams in all of baseball. Their best case scenario is easy to see and would be dominant if achieved. More importantly, perhaps, is that they’ve assembled so much talent that even if one of these groups of players does run into a worst case scenario, the others can easily pick up that slack. Happy baseball season, everyone; this is gonna be fun.

The Obligatory Gio Gonzalez Post

by

(Getty)

Last week, I wrote the first nice thing I think I’ve ever written about Luis Cessa, which was predicated on him being a reliever, not a starter. A day later, Luis Severino had to stop warming up for a game because of right shoulder inflammation. Later on in the week, the Yankees announced that both Severino and CC Sabathia would be starting the year on the Injured List and all of a sudden, Cessa, Domingo German, and Jonathan Loaisiga are staring down an opportunity to make the Major League rotation to start the year, rather than the bullpen. As this will shallow the Yankees’ depth, it may make sense to search outside the organization for help; that brings us to Gio Gonzalez.

I’m going with Gonzalez rather than, say, Dallas Keuchel because last week, Gonzalez was linked to the Yankees, not Keuchel. I’ll also say, in the spirit of disclosure, that I’ve always liked Gonzalez as a pitcher. Why? I have no idea; he’s just a guy I’ve always been a fan of. This bias of sorts leads me to think that he’d probably be better than one of the Yankees’ depth options, mostly on experience alone, but let’s see if it’d be worth that.

Depending on where you look, Gonzalez either had a decent year last year (2.0 fWAR, 2.2 WARP) or a pretty bad year (0.7 bWAR) in 171 innings between the Nationals and the Brewers. The numbers behind all that? A 4.21 ERA; a 4.42 RA; a 4.16 FIP; and a 4.17 DRA. His walk rate was 10.7, the first time he’d gone that high since 2011. His strikeout rate was 19.8, his first time ever under 20%. His home run rate, dropped to 10.4 HR/FB%, trending right after two years at 11.1 (2017) and 12.5 (2016). His groundball rate was 45.3%, his lowest since 2014, continuing a downward trend. His fastball velocity has also waned since 2016, something to be expected of a player who’ll turn 34 in September. But, in a fashion that might fit the Yankees, he features something else other than a straight fastball by throwing a sinker. He’s also upped his changeup usage by about 5% from 2017 and about 8% from 2016.

None of those trends really scream out ‘sign me,’ do they? I’ll answer my own question and say they do not, but there are some positives. His groundball rate is still passable, especially when we look more closely at the pitch data from 2018. His sinker, changeup, and curveball all got over 50% GB/BIP, which is great. His four seamer dragged it down at 25% GB/BIP. If Gonzalez focuses less and less on his fastball and more on his sinker, changeup, and curve, he can maybe return to a more prominent position with grounders. Additionally, his change and curve have better whiff/swing rates that his fastball does, which could lead to another uptick in strikeouts.

Basically, the entire idea of Gonzalez comes down to those ifs. Are those ifs worth the risk? Maybe? Gonzalez is a veteran pitcher who comes with a track record. He’s likely to be better–even with his warts–than Cessa and probably German, but Loaisiga’s upside is hard to ignore; however, his health is such a question mark that Gonzalez may be the better play to start. Again, it comes down to another if.

If Gonzalez is okay with a one-year deal, sign him. There’s minimal risk and there are still the minor league options to back him up. If he wants a multi-year deal, I think it’s easy to pass.

In-Cessa-nt Optimism

by

How many more Cessa starts do we have to watch? (Getty Images)

Perhaps it’s one that we’ve talked ourselves into because of its inherent logic, but a truism for the Yankees heading into Spring Training is that Luis Cessa is going to get one of the final two bullpen jobs up for grabs. This makes sense because he is out of options and even if it is the last player or two on the team, why lose a guy for (probably) nothing? Furthermore, if it doesn’t work out, it is the last slot or two on the team, something not hard to replace. In addition to the logic of the situation, though, Cessa does appear to be earning his roster spot.

The Yankees have shown a lot of patience with Cessa and given him chance after chance to prove himself. The results have been mixed, but that might be a bit generous; he’s only infrequently looked like a Major League quality pitcher. Counting on him as starting pitching depth–even with Jordan Montgomery out–is probably out of the question now and that could be the best thing for his career.

It hearkens back to the days of the Joba Chamberlain: Starter or Reliever? debates, but it still comes out pretty true: pitchers’ stuff plays up in the bullpen. Being able to let loose for an inning or two is going to make your stuff look better. Just look at Chad Green, for example. Would he be able to get away with such a fastball heavy attack in the starting rotation? Of course not. Cessa’s fastball, meanwhile, is already pretty solid in terms of velocity. Brooks has him averaging just over 95 on the heater for his career. Airing it out in relief could add a tick or two to that, making it that much harder to hit.

Moving to the bullpen would also allow Cessa to drop his curve and changeup and focus on a two pitch fastball/slider arsenal. His slider–his second most frequently used pitch–already has about a ten MPH drop from his fastball. That difference could be even more stark and effective in the bullpen in short outings. Aside from simplifying and amping up, there’s something in Cessa’s career performance that points to potential success in the bullpen.

Like almost every pitcher to ever throw an inning, Cessa does his best work when facing a hitter the first time. Whether it’s as a starter (.688 OPS against) or reliever (.695 OPS against), his best marks show up in his first matchup with an opponent. The drop offs get pretty stark, too. Against hitters a second time as a starter, his OPS against bumps all the way up to .811. As a reliever? .841. His pitch count numbers tell a similar tale. His OPS against is .717 in pitch numbers 1-25. It jumps up to .806 for 26-50 and .812 for 51-75. It gets just under .800 (.796) in pitches 76+.

The clear part is that Cessa most likely belongs in the bullpen, where he can limit his exposure to batters and jump his stuff up a notch or two. What role, then, should he play in the bullpen? The ‘first time’ numbers suggest he could get away with facing a lineup once through while his pitch count numbers suggest he’s better off in a short outing of just one inning. The former is likely more valuable to the team, but the latter is one where he’s more likely to be successful. Either way, Cessa should start out in mop up, low leverage situations as he attempts to adjust his repertoire to a new role. If he can nail things down on an inning-by-inning basis, maybe he could be put into a multi-inning role.

Luis Cessa hasn’t quite reached the end of the line with the Yankees, but being out of options and only marginally and infrequently successful means that end is coming up quick. 2019 will be the year that makes or breaks Cessa’s career and from the bullpen is where he’ll have to do it.