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River Ave. Blues » Mailbag

Mailbag: Judge, Catchers, Acevedo, Boone, Urshela, Florial

April 26, 2019 by Mike

Well folks, this is it. The final RAB mailbag. Our archives tell me I’ve written 538 mailbag posts over the years. Figure eight questions per mailbag and that’s a little over 4,000 questions. I have 12 questions for you this week. As a reminder, I am putting together a “Guide to life after RAB” post, so if you have any suggested sites to check out for Yankees analysis, send ’em to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com.

Judge. (Presswire)

Michael asks: Is it safe to start being concerned that Judge is a little injury prone? He’s not Bird, but 2 oblique strains in four years and a shoulder problem that required surgery in another season (discounting the freak hbp).

Aaron Judge also missed a few weeks with Triple-A Scranton back in 2016 after he banged up his knee diving for a ball on the warning track. So, to recap:

  • 2016: Knee injury in Triple-A and oblique strain in MLB.
  • 2017: Shoulder injury that required offseason surgery.
  • 2018: Broken wrist after hit-by-pitch.
  • 2019: Oblique strain.

The thing is, does it really matter if we label Judge injury prone? What difference does it make? He’s still an incredible player and 130 games of Judge is better than 150 games of most others. Two oblique strains in four years is not a red flag for me. The hit-by-pitch last year was a fluke thing, and if you dive for balls or crash into the wall, you’re at risk of injury. That’s baseball.

Greg Bird had three surgeries in three years from 2016-18, including two on the same ankle, and now he has a torn plantar fascia. The’s had serious non-contact injuries. He didn’t crash into a wall or get hit by a pitch. That’s just his body giving out. Judge’s knee, shoulder, and wrist injuries were kinda dumb baseball things. He’s an outlier because he’s so big and we have no idea how he’ll age with that frame. I’m not worried about him being injury prone right now though. I’ll worry when random non-contact injuries start piling up. Right now it’s two four years apart.

Caleb asks: How far back can a player be put on the IL to start the season? I was curious if someone like Hicks got put on the 60 day IL would the clock start the day he got hurt or the first game of the season?

When a player is transferred from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day injured list, his 60-day clock begins the first day he was put on the 10-day injured list. It doesn’t reset. The Yankees placed Luis Severino on the 10-day injured list on Opening Day, so, after being transferred to the 60-day injured list to make room for Cameron Maybin yesterday, he is eligible to return 60 days from Opening Day (May 27th). His 60-day clock didn’t start yesterday. Players get credit for time served, so to speak.

Ed asks: Should the Yanks keep three catchers and play Sanchez & Romine most days? Romine’s bat is certainly better than some of the options they have on hand.

The Yankees sent down Kyle Higashioka when Gary Sanchez returned, so they are carrying two catchers. Hypothetically, they would’ve had to send down Mike Ford to carry three catchers — carrying three catchers and two first basemen with a three-man bench ain’t happening — so the question is essentially Sanchez at DH and Austin Romine at catcher, or Sanchez at catcher and Ford at DH. I’d go with the latter. With a healthy roster, the Yankees could sacrifice some offense to improve their defense. They can’t do it now. They have to generate as much offense as possible and Romine isn’t solving any offensive problems. Ford might with his lefty power and patience. The defensive upgrade behind the plate doesn’t make up for the offensive downgrade. Carrying three catchers when you have one of the best catchers in the game seems crazy to me. Sanchez should be playing as much as possible behind the plate. He gives the Yankees the best chance to win.

Rob asks: Domingo Acevedo = Dellin Betances 2.0? Seriously, the Yankees seem to have a never-ending supply of good relievers. I think it’s because they’re obsessed with hard throwers who, more often than not, have a natural tendency to have arm problems and low durability is the number 1 symptom of that. So they rarely develop solid starters successfully. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Good relievers are valuable especially as trade chips. But at some point, shouldn’t they learn their lesson and search out pitchers with high IQ and high durability instead?

Acevedo isn’t the next Betances. Dellin has a better fastball and a much better secondary pitch. They aren’t all that comparable aside from being really tall (Acevedo is 6-foot-7) and command challenged, as far as I’m concerned. I assume the high IQ thing refers to command because at some point long ago command became a proxy for intelligence (million dollar arm and ten cent head, blah blah blah), which is the dumbest thing ever. Throwing strikes and commanding the baseball are hard. The league average zone rate is 47.3% this year. We are currently watching the best and most talented pitchers in baseball history, and, collectively, they throw the ball in the strike zone less than half the time. Throwing strikes is hard. Commanding the ball is even harder. Every team looks for pitchers with command and the Yankees are no exception. There just aren’t very many great command — sorry, high IQ — pitchers out there. As for high durability, good luck figuring out who will and will not stay healthy. Teams have been trying to crack that code for decades.

Boone. (Presswire)

Zach asks: Give the plethora of injuries, does Aaron Boone get legitimate Manager of the Year consideration if the Yankees win the AL East this year? He’d have to be the favorite — even if the Yankees are healthy by September — right?

Normally I would say no. The Yankees came into the season as the consensus favorites to win the AL East, and the game’s biggest market team winning the division when pretty much everyone expected them to win the division usually doesn’t equal Manager of the Year votes. The injuries have changed the calculus though. The Yankees have had nothing close to a full strength roster this season and, given the timetables on their injured guys, it doesn’t sound like they will have a full strength roster anytime soon. Every team deals with injuries, they are part of the game, but this is well beyond normal injury rates. We’ll see what happens with the other American League races — I have to think Rocco Baldelli would get Manager of the Year love if the Twins win the AL Central — but yes, the Yankees winning the division despite all these injuries should equal serious Manager of the Year consideration for Aaron Boone. Joe Girardi would be getting praised to no end for keeping this group together and competitive. Boone deserves the same love.

Paul asks: Can we talk about how the Yankees have a pretty good Pythagorean record despite sending an entire major league team to the IL? Sure, crummy competition so far, but pretty incredible right?

Going into last night’s game the Yankees had the second best run differential in the American League and the third best run differential in baseball overall. The leaderboard:

  1. Rays: +40 (16-9 actual record vs. 17-8 expected record)
  2. Cardinals: +33 (15-9 vs. 15-9)
  3. Yankees: +31 (14-10 vs. 15-9)
  4. Astros: +28 (15-9 vs. 15-9)
  5. Mariners: +28 (16-11 vs. 16-11)

It is way way way too early in the season to begin drawing conclusions from run differential. I don’t buy the Mariners as the fifth best team in baseball. I also don’t buy the Red Sox as the third worst team in baseball despite their -36 run differential. Run differential is descriptive more than predictive. It tells you what happened, not what will happen next.

As I write this Thursday evening, the Yankees have two one-run losses, four two-run losses, three three-run losses, and one five-run loss. They have not been blown out at all this year. In fact, they are 4-1 in games decided by at least five runs, and that’s the bulk of the run differential right there. Yes, it is crazy impressive the Yankees have outscored their opponents by roughly 1.3 runs per game despite their depleted roster. I’m not sure how sustainable it is without some guys getting healthy.

Justin asks: You’ve mentioned a number of times that even when unsigned free agents are signed, they’ll need to see a fair amount of game action before they’re ready to be put on an MLB roster. I’m wondering why free agents who are biding their time don’t sign on with a club in one of the higher-tier independent leagues instead of just working out in a facility somewhere. It seems like a low-risk way to get into games, showcase for MLB clubs, and have a more immediate major-league impact when eventually signed.

No established big leaguer is going to bide his time in an independent league. The travel is terrible, the ballparks are nice (some of them) but they’re far from MLB caliber, the pay is horrible, the postgame spreads are terrible, so on and so forth. If you’re Dallas Keuchel or Craig Kimbrel, and you are an established above-average big leaguer, do you work out close to home and spend time with your family, or go spend a few weeks with the Long Island Ducks? I’d stay home too. Nothing those players do in an independent league will improve their free agent stock — the level of competition would render stats meaningless, and if a team wants to put a radar gun on someone, they’re welcome to attend a workout — and if a team decides to pass because the player will need a few minor league games to prepare, then that’s their loss. They’re not serious about winning if waiting two or three weeks is enough of a reason to pass on the player entirely.

Michael asks: Gio Urshela. This may be a very small sample size, but as of now both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference rate him as a poor defender thus far. Would you happen to know the reason behind that?

I do not and it is almost certainly small sample size. Defensive stats are updated every two weeks or so, and the first 2019 update was released recently. It is a very tiny little bit of data and I would not sweat it at all. To the eye test, Urshela looks very good at third base, and the eye test matches all the scouting reports throughout his career. Give it time and the numbers will likely reflect that. Of course, Urshela might not be around long enough for the numbers to correct. If Miguel Andujar comes back in a few weeks, that’s probably it for Urshela. I don’t have a good answer for why Urshela is rated as a negative defensively right now. Why was Jose Ramirez batting .150 on April 15th? There’s no good reason. Weird things happen in small samples and they don’t always mean the player’s true talent level has changed.

Happ. (Presswire)

Michael asks: Just checked and found out Ian Happ is in the minors and has been for all of 2019. Last year he was a league-average hitter and he has upside beyond that. Could a Chad Green for Ian Happ swap be a starting point for a trade discussion? Or if not that, what would it take to interest the Cubs in parting with their out-of-favor young player?

That would be interesting. It wouldn’t be fair to call Green-for-Happ a damaged goods for damaged goods trade — when I think damaged goods, I think player with an injury — but it is definitely two guys whose stock is down. Green got hit around this year and was sent to Triple-A this week. Happ was squeezed off the roster in Spring Training and he went into last night’s game hitting .225/.313/.408 (77 wRC+) with two homers and a 31.3% strikeout rate in 19 Triple-A games. A year ago these were important players on contending teams. Now they’re afterthoughts.

I don’t like Happ all that much — his swing is so long and robotic that it seems like it’ll take a not insignificant mechanical overhaul to cut down on his strikeout and swing-and-miss rates — but I’d trade Green for him in a heartbeat. A reliever for a potential everyday player, or at least a “tenth man” type who can switch-hit and play both the infield and outfield? A player like that is mighty useful in the three-man bench era. (Well, it becomes the four-man bench era next season with the 26-man/13-pitcher roster, but the point stands.) My guess is the Cubs would want quite a bit more than Green to part with Happ and I don’t blame them. Maybe Green and Jonathan Loaisiga for Happ? Not saying I would do it, but that might be what it would take.

Christian asks: My question for the mailbag is about the bullpen – or rather an observation… I like the “concept” of two sets of starters for a game. CC for 5 innings and Loaisiga for 3 innings are a great combo because it gives a breather to the other members of the bullpen. Should teams use second tier starters in that role more often if you were GM and/or manager?

That is kinda sorta what’s happening right now. Most notably, the Rays are sheltering their back-end starters by pairing them with an opener. It keeps them away from the other team’s best hitters one time through the lineup. Using piggyback starters — that is essentially what CC Sabathia for five innings and Jonathan Loaisiga for three innings every five days would be, piggybacking — is great in theory but has proven difficult to put into practice. Matchups and bullpen needs on other days tend to throw things out of whack. Teams are still figuring out the best way to do this and keep everyone healthy and productive, but yeah, baseball is moving in this direction. Teams are coming up with ways to maximize the effectiveness of their second and third tier starters, usually by reducing how often they go through the lineup a third time, or face the other team’s best hitters.

Brad asks: if he had not injured his wrist in ST, would Florial have been considered for ML time given all the OF injuries, or would they have stayed the course in his development?

Nah. The Yankees would not have rushed Estevan Florial to cover for the injuries. For starters, Florial is almost certainly not ready for the big leagues given his pitch recognition issues. He could play defense and run, but I don’t see any way he could hang in at the plate. Secondly, Florial is their best prospect and they’re not going to alter his development plan and risk stunting his development. The jump from High-A or Double-A to MLB is huge. And third, there are 40-man roster considerations. The Yankees can designate Cameron Maybin for assignment when the time comes and not think twice about it. Once Florial’s on the 40-man though, he’s not coming off. It limits flexibility. Florial is expected to resume baseball activities in the coming days and that’s good. I don’t think the injury kept him out of the big leagues though. He wouldn’t have been a serious call-up candidate.

Several asked: At what point do we start the question the training staff given all the injuries?

People have been questioning the training staff since Spring Training. Aaron Boone is asked about them pretty much every day and Brian Cashman is absolutely asked about them whenever he meets with the media. Believe me, the Yankees are asked about the training staff all the time. I totally get why the training staff is being questioned and it’s not unfair given these injuries. This just strikes me as a freakishly bad year. Luis Severino coming down with an achy shoulder after his workload the last two years isn’t the most surprising thing in the world. Same with Dellin Betances. Miguel Andujar and Clint Frazier hurting themselves diving into bases is dumb luck. The absolute last thing you can say about Giancarlo Stanton is that he’s not in peak physical condition, yet he hurt his biceps. These days players all have personal trainers, and that makes it tough to blame the team’s training staff for everything. I have no doubt the Yankees are looking into this. From the outside, I don’t see how we could blame anyone in particular. We don’t have enough information at all.

Filed Under: Mailbag

Mailbag: RAB, Andujar, Seigler, Green, Frazier, Moncada

April 19, 2019 by Mike

We have ten questions this week in the (gasp!) second-to-last RAB mailbag ever. It hasn’t really set in for me yet that RAB is closing up shop soon, probably because it’s still business as usual on my end. Maybe it’ll start to set in once I empty out the mailbag inbox one final time next week. Anyway, send your questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com.

(Presswire)

Many asked: Where do we go for our Yankees info and analysis after RAB shuts down???

First of all, thank you again to everyone who reached out since we announced RAB is shutting down. The thank yous have been overwhelming. Most of you also asked where you can get your Yankees fix going forward, but I’m not prepared to answer that right now because, honestly, I stopped reading most other blogs a few years ago, so I’m a bit out of touch. I’ve decided to put together what will amount to a “A Guide To Life After RAB” post, which sounds incredibly presumptuous, but it seems to be something people want. It’ll include other sites to check out, information on how to continue following the minors, where you can find everyone here going forward, things like that. That will probably be posted on April 29th, our final day. I don’t mean to ignore everyone asking where to go next. The guide will answer those questions soon enough.

Dan asks: Is part of the reason that you are wrapping up RAB that you are frustrated with the Yankees for not doing more to sign players Harper, Machado, and Corbin, as well as retaining players like Robertson?

It is not. I’ve have several people ask this and I promise you it is not. The decision to shut down RAB has nothing to do with the Yankees and we would’ve made the same decision even if they had signed Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, and been 17-1 with 47 home runs through 18 games. This decision has been a long time coming and I actually did decide to shut RAB down last summer, weeks before Harper and Machado even became free agents, though I changed my mind after the season and tried to give it another go. That was a mistake and if I could do it all again, RAB would’ve closed up properly over the winter rather than a few weeks into the season. That’s my mistake.

Greg asks: If Miguel Andujar is not able to throw do you think the Yankees would try him at 1st before ending his season with surgery? Latest word is that his swing won’t make the injury worse, so why not get his bat into the lineup. Can’t be much worse than Voit defensively.

Good timing! Just Aaron Boone said yesterday the Yankees are discussing bringing Andujar back as a first baseman or DH if he can’t make the throws at third. “I don’t think we’re there yet,” Boone told James Wagner, indicating a final decision is not imminent. Supposedly the injury won’t hinder Andujar’s swing, only his arm, and remember, he would still have to make some throws at first base, plus he’d have to learn the position. I think Andujar at DH is more likely than Andujar at first base. Either way, it sounds like the Yankees will make sure Andujar can not play third base before considering other positions. It’s not third base or surgery. There’s a third option here. They are thinking about ways to get his bat into the lineup before sending him for surgery.

Erick asks: Anthony Seigler. Where and what’s up with our switch-hitter and switch-pitcher first rounder? Is he hurt?

Seigler suffered what was described as a minor quad injury in Spring Training, which prevented him from breaking camp with a full season affiliate. There have been no updates on him since, which is not unusual for Extended Spring Training, even for last year’s first round pick. Seigler is very advanced defensively for his age, but holding a 19-year-old catcher back in ExST is pretty standard practice. Even without the quad injury, he might’ve been in ExST to start the season anyway. Seigler could be perfectly healthy right now (and hopefully he is) and still be in ExST because the Yankees believe that is the best place for him developmentally. Seigler was hurt in Spring Training. I do not know if he is still hurt, and I don’t know that he would’ve been assigned to Low-A Charleston even if healthy.

Green. (Presswire)

Mickey asks: Does Chad Green still have a minor league option? And how much longer is his leash before you start considering Joe Harvey as a better option?

Green does have an option left. He used one in 2016 and one early in 2017, so he has one remaining. The Yankees could send him to Triple-A. I can’t see that happening though, even with the rocky start to the season. Maybe don’t use him in high-leverage spots, but Green deserves a leash longer than seven innings based on what he did the last two years. Besides, who do the Yankees call him to replace him? Stephen Tarpley? Jake Barrett? Jonathan Loaisiga? I’d be down with Loaisiga getting a look as a multi-inning reliever a la Green in 2017, just not at the expense of Green. I know he’s struggled in the early going, but I couldn’t imagine sending Green down and sticking with Harvey. Not yet.

Nico asks: Your Blake Swihart post got me thinking, what’s the point of being a switch hitter if your team platoons you to avoid your weaker side? Why not just try batting left-on-left? Can’t be worse, right? Have there been “switch hitters” who give up on it and are actually better after?

Most switch-hitters are stronger from one side (their natural side), and focusing on the strong side is typically a last resort. A few years ago Aaron Hicks stopped switch-hitting with the Twins and Rod Carew talked him back into it. “Rod Carew actually called me and told me, what the heck am I doing giving up switch hitting? It’s a blessing, and that I should go back and work harder at it and learn from my mistakes,” Hicks said at the time.

Maybe I’m forgetting someone obvious, but I can’t think of anyone who dropped switch-hitting well into his big league career and had success from one side of the plate. It does happen quite a bit in the minors — Eduardo Nunez and Francisco Cervelli were switch-hitters very early in their pro careers — but it’s easier to work on something like that as a young player in a developmental situation than in the big leagues where wins are the priority. Remember, most switch-hitters have never seen a breaking ball that breaks away from them. It ain’t easy to pick up on the fly.

Cory asks: I’ve got a some questions about Clint. It seems like he’s finally getting his big opportunity this year. How would you grade his performance so far? What does his ceiling look like if everything falls into place this year and where does he rank among our hitters? If he keeps this up is it enough to push Gardner to the bench so he continues to get full time at bats if/when the regulars get healthy? What should his nickname be?

Clint Frazier’s been really good so far. I’m generally a harsh grader but I am comfortable giving him an “A” in his limited action thus far given how well he’s performed after missing so much time last year. I’ve said Frazier could be a right-handed Nick Swisher several times in the past, though that’s probably not a great comparison. Not many players walk as much as Swisher did (career 13.0%) and I think Frazier has a better chance to hit for average. At his peak, I could see Clint being a .280/.360/.500 type. I guess that makes him … Mitch Haniger? Defensively, Frazier is probably a -5 runs defender in left field, so the total package is something like +3 WAR or +4 WAR once he settles in, and that’s really good. And yes, of course Brett Gardner should go to the bench so Frazier can remain in the lineup once guys start getting healthy. Will the Yankees actually do it? I dunno. But that’s what they should do. I am terrible with nicknames so I don’t have a suggestion there. Clint doesn’t like Red Thunder. Nicknames have to be organic. Can’t force it. Give it time and something good will come along.

Sean asks: How mad are you in hindsight that the Yankees didn’t pony up the cash to sign Yoan Moncada? I’m not saying he arrived with how well he’s doing this year, but geez, it’s money, and the Yankees cheaped out on someone with such upside. And to the Red Sox too, ugh. Imagine him at second and Gleyber at ss, unreal.

The Moncada situation was the first real sign the Yankees were going to operate very differently going forward. For better or worse, they are no longer going to throw money around, even when young players with high upside are available. Getting out-bid for Moncada was infuriating. The Yankees had spent the year or so prior to that saying they were planning to emphasize youth, yet they were outbid for a player pretty much everyone in the industry considered a budding star. Moncada looks like he’s finally breaking out this year — I say “finally” but he’s still only 23 — and who knows how his career plays out had he signed with New York. His entire development path would have changed. The Yankees planning to emphasize youth, yet allowing themselves to be outbid for Moncada is a pretty good summation of the franchise right now. They talk the talk about doing whatever it takes to win, but their actions tell us that isn’t really the case. They want to win on their terms.

Moncada. (Presswire)

Jonathan asks: It seems everyone is gloom and doom. But after this two game sweep of the Red Sox, the Yankees at 8-9. Weren’t they 9-9 last year? At the end of the day, if Hicks, Stanton, Severino, Sanchez and Betances come back the Yankees should be fine. Am I wrong for being so chilled?

There are several reasons for the doom and gloom. The first is, obviously, the injuries. There are so many of them and several of them are long-term injuries. Is it really safe to expect guys like Aaron Hicks, Luis Severino, and Dellin Betances to come back and be impact players right away given the nature of their injuries? Secondly, the Yankees have played some crummy baseball these three weeks, and these games count in the standings. How could anyone not be discouraged after losing home series to the Orioles, Tigers, and White Sox? And third, the Yankees just had a giant fart noise of an offseason. They passed on Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, passed on Patrick Corbin, and tried to piece things together with lower cost free agent signings, several of which aren’t looking so hot already (J.A. Happ, Zack Britton). When you’re a World Series contender and your best free agent signings are DJ LeMahieu and Adam Ottavino, well, you’ll have to forgive me for being underwhelmed. Jonathan’s not wrong for being chill through this rocky start. There’s no right way to be a fan. Personally though, I see a lot more negatives than positives right now. The injuries, the losses to bad teams, and the Yankees being apathetic toward building the best roster possible are hard to ignore.

Anonymous asks: Hi Mike. The other day you mentioned Urshela took Ellsbury’s locker and that it is a “prime piece of real estate” in the clubhouse. Ellsbury hasn’t played since 2017 but he still had a good locker, so I assume they are assigned based on seniority? What’s the locker situation like?

Yes, locker assignments are generally based on service time and tenure with the team, so the guys who have been around the longest have the best lockers. They usually get an empty locker next to them for extra space as well. That is standard throughout baseball and it applies to the road clubhouses as well. When the Red Sox were in town this week Dustin Pedroia, Chris Sale, and David Price had the prime lockers. When the Tigers were in town two weeks ago it was Miguel Cabrera and Jordan Zimmermann.

The Yankee Stadium home clubhouse is gigantic and there are some columns in the middle of the room that kinda split it into two halves. The front left side is the young position players, the back left side is the more veteran position players, the back right side is mostly starting pitchers, and the front right side is the relievers. Some other quick locker notes:

  • Brett Gardner and CC Sabathia are the longest tenured Yankees and they have the two lockers at the back of the clubhouse. Carlos Beltran had Gardner’s locker previously. Derek Jeter had CC’s.
  • Giancarlo Stanton is in the corner next to Gardner and I’m pretty certain he’s in Alex Rodriguez’s old locker. Dellin Betances is in the corner next to Sabathia. Masahiro Tanaka and Austin Romine have good spots at the end of their row of lockers. Romine took Gardner’s old locker when Gardner took Beltran’s.
  • Aaron Judge is in the middle of the row of young position players on the front left side. No special locker treatment for him yet (or Gary Sanchez, for that matter). The lockers at the very front of the clubhouse go to the shuttle players (Joe Harvey, Mike Ford, etc.).

It’s kinda interesting how certain lockers have a personality, so to speak. For example, the Yankees have what amounts to a veteran setup man locker that has gone from David Robertson to Andrew Miller to Tyler Clippard back to Robertson to now Zack Britton. But yeah, locker assignments are largely based on service time and tenure with the team, and the Yankees have so many lockers that injured guys like Ellsbury (and Jordan Montgomery) keep their spots even when they’re away from the team for long stretches of time.

Filed Under: Mailbag

Mailbag: Cole, Goodrum, Frazier, Loaisiga, Gallo, Smoak, Davis

April 12, 2019 by Mike

There are nine questions in this week’s mailbag. Good mailbag, I think. As always, the mailbag email address is RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com. Also, I appreciate all the thank yous and well wishes in the inbox. It would take forever to reply to them all, but I did read every single one. Thank you.

Cole. (Ron Jenkins/Getty)

Stan asks: Hi Mike, is Gerrit Cole the only realistic option for the Yankees to acquire in the next year or two for frontline pitching? If they’re serious about it, they’ll likely have to break the bank a bit. Given the current front office emphasis on value versus paying whatever it takes, how likely do you think the Yankees will end up being among the highest bidders? Would you break the bank for Cole? I say yes if it only takes money and slight hits to draft picks and international bonus money.

Looking over the 2019-20 free agent class and the 2020-21 free agent class, yes, Gerrit Cole is the best starting pitcher set to hit the market in the near future. It’s Cole this offseason and Trevor Bauer next offseason, and that’s it for aces. Depending how you feel about guys like Madison Bumgarner, Robbie Ray, Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, and Zack Wheeler, it is entirely possible the third best free agent starter the next two offseasons will be Masahiro Tanaka.

Assuming his 2019 is similar to his 2018, I think Cole has a good chance at Max Scherzer’s contract (seven years, $210M) this winter. Well, in a “normal” free agent market he would. At the very least, Cole should exceed Patrick Corbin’s contract (six years, $140M). He’s a Scott Boras client, he’ll hit the market at the same age, he’s been better leading up to free agency, he did it in the American League, and he hasn’t had Tommy John surgery.

The Yankees drafted Cole back in the day and they tried to trade for him last winter, so obviously he has fans in the organization. The question is not whether they should sign him (of course they should), but whether they will pony up the money to sign him. They didn’t for Manny Machado or Bryce Harper and those dudes were smarter and safer investments as prime-aged position players. Pitchers break, even the great ones. You need them, but they break.

My quick math says $34.5M comes off the books after the season and that’s without re-signing Didi Gregorius and Dellin Betances. A big chunk of that is going to Gary Sanchez’s and especially Aaron Judge’s arbitration raises. So, to sign Cole, the Yankees will have to either jump over the third luxury tax or dump salary. I’m not sure how realistic either of those things are. Maybe they’ll suck it up and deal with a big luxury tax bill in 2020 until Tanaka and Jacoby Ellsbury coming off the books after the season.

Robert asks: Any chance the Tigers would sell off utility man Niko Goodrum? What would it take.

I’m sure the Tigers would trade away pretty much anyone on the roster at this point. Matt Boyd, Jeimer Candelario, and Christin Stewart are their only players who look like long-term keepers, and they’re complementary types rather than cornerstones they can build around. (Nick Castellanos is a “build around” type but he will be a free agent after the season, so he doesn’t really count.)

Goodrum is a nice little player. The Tigers signed him as a minor league free agent last offseason and he hit .245/.315/.432 (103 wRC+) with 16 homers while playing every position other than pitcher and catcher. He went into yesterday’s game hitting .289/.413/.526 (160 wRC+), though I wouldn’t expect that to last all year. A switch-hitting super utility guy with a league average bat is a nifty little player. He’d help the Yankees and a lot of teams.

The Tigers control Goodrum through 2023 and he turned only 27 in February, so he’s someone they could keep and reasonably expect to be part of their next contending team. He’s a good “tenth man,” so to speak. Would the Tigers take Chance Adams for Goodrum? That feels light. What about Adams and Domingo Acevedo, two upper level young pitchers? That still feels light. Hard to know what it would take to get him, but yeah, Goodrum would be a worthwhile pickup.

Douglas asks: Once the Blue Jays deem Vlad Guerrero Jr. ready (aka once they’ve gained the extra season of control), if Andujar isn’t healthy or seeming to be close to healthy, do you think we could see a return of Brandon Drury? He’s seems to be the “guy who stands in front of the big time prospect fans really wants to see” the past 2 seasons.

That would be something else. Trade for Drury with the expectation that he’ll become the third baseman of the future, watch him get Wally Pipped by the real third baseman of the future, trade him for pitching, then reacquire him because the third baseman of the future got hurt. Drury hasn’t hit at all this year — he went into last night’s game hitting .162/.200/.233 (13 wRC+) — but it’s early, I think he’s better than that. I mean, he can’t be worse. I feel like this a “been there, done that” situation. The Yankees tried it, it didn’t really work out, so they moved on. Even with Miguel Andujar hurt, I think the Yankees can get a capable replacement in a salary dump (Todd Frazier? Starlin Castro?) rather than trading a young player(s) for Drury. I mean, yeah, Drury would fit right now, but meh.

Brian asks: Something I’ve noticed now that Frazier has come up is that his stance is a lot more open than it used to be. I looked at a few clips from 2017 and 2018 (not much 2018 unfortunately) and it seemed to have opened up a bit this year. Thoughts?

Clint Frazier has indeed opened up his stance a bit this season. In fact, he’s changed his stance quite a bit each of the last two years. We don’t have much video to look through given his sporadic playing time, so here is the best side-by-side(-by-side) comparison I could build with similar camera angles:

Frazier went from way open in 2017 to mostly closed in 2018 to open again in 2019. Back in Spring Training, Frazier said he worked with hitting coach Marcus Thames on several things because he didn’t feel right mechanically. One of those things was a wider stance. Here’s more from Pete Caldera:

“I have a hard time thinking right field, because I feel like that slows me down too much,’’ said Frazier, who is “messing around with a few different timing mechanisms.’’

…

We’re just trying to get him to stay more balanced, stay more under control,’’ hitting coach Marcus Thames said before the game. “He’s got plenty of talent.’’

Frazier looks more confident and more dangerous at the plate right now than he has at any point in his brief big league career. He’s in control of his at-bats and even his outs have been hit hard lately. How much can be attributed to the open stance? Hard to say. It could be a function of being healthy. Or just a talented young player figuring it out. It’s likely a combination of many things, and whatever it is, I hope it continues. Clint’s a lot of fun when he’s locked in.

Layonel asks: How long until Johnny Lasagna is a very good longman? Given his injury history and how he can’t seem to pitch more than 4 innings per outing.

I think Jonathan Loaisiga fits best as a multi-inning reliever right now. Turn him into the 2019 version of 2017 Chad Green. Let him air it out and go the lineup one time and one time only. It’s a small sample, obviously, but Loaisiga has held hitters to a .167/.241/.271 (32 OPS+) line the first time through the lineup and .308/.417/.487 (133 OPS+) thereafter. I get that the Yankees want to develop him as a starter. It would be amazing if he could start long-term. His history suggests he can not stay healthy in that role though, and Loaisiga could really help the win-now Yankees as a multi-inning reliever. I don’t mean a mop-up guy either. He has the stuff and guts to get important outs. I’d love to see it. Instead, it appears the Yankees will continue working Loaisiga as a starter.

Jerry asks: Despite the small sample size, what is your take on the Red Sox pitching staff? I know it is early but Rodriguez looks awful, Eovaldi is morphing back into the Yankee version of him, Porcello is hittable and Sale/Price still have injury concerns.

I think it’s a combination of things. For starters, there’s likely some World Series hangover effect in play, and by that I mean these guys pitched a ton last year and had a deep postseason run, and thus a shorter than usual offseason to recover. Secondly, the Red Sox might’ve taken it a little too easy on their starters in Spring Training. They brought them along very slowly and they didn’t start pitching in games until mid-March. Their starters all seem to be playing catch up. Maybe they were brought along too slowly in Spring Training.

Chris Sale is the one I worry about most long-term because he hasn’t looked right since before his shoulder injury last year. His velocity was down late last season and in the postseason, and everything was a grind. That is still the case now. Sale looks like he did after the injury last year. That’s worrisome. Nathan Eovaldi turning back into the guy he’s been his entire career aside from three or four months last year is not the most surprising thing in the world. Eduardo Rodriguez has always been a bit of an enigma. I’m worried about Sale because he doesn’t look healthy. Give everyone else time and they’ll probably shake off the World Series hangover/overly protective Spring Training.

Trevor asks: Isn’t Joey Gallo the perfect acquisition target for this team? Under team control for 3 more years, left handed power hitter, and he can play LF, 1B and 3B. Get the bat now and depending on who and when guys come back he has enough flexibility to fit in the rest of the year and years to come.

Hot Take: I think Joey Gallo is the worst possible target for the Yankees. They do not need another extreme strikeout hitter. Two is enough, and, really, the only reason the Yankees tolerate two is because Aaron Judge is a top ten player in the world and Giancarlo Stanton is the best power hitter of his generation. Adding another 30% strikeout rate guy to the lineup is just too much. Gallo doesn’t want to play third base, so we’re talking about a first base/left field guy, and I’m not inclined to give up prospects to get someone like that, especially in this free agent market. I love dingers and Gallo hits glorious dingers, but the Yankees can do better.

Smoak. (Steve Russell/Getty)

Thomas asks: When are the Yankees going to pull the plug on Bird. Started the year taking fastballs down the middle of the plate for strikes and constantly getting behind in the count. Now he’s swinging at them but swinging through 92-94 mph fastballs right down the pipe early in the count when that’s what you should be looking for. Not sold on Voit yet. What about Justin Smoak? He can be had.

Greg Bird had a good game to wrap up the Astros series (1-for-2 with two walks), though he is still hitting .214/.353/.321 (95 wRC+) overall. He is drawing lots of walks (17.6%) and not doing much else. Bird’s not even hitting the ball hard. His 86.2 mph average exit velocity and 33.3% hard-hit rate are well below the league averages (89.1 mph and 40.2%). Here are the exit velocities on Bird’s last eight balls in play, working backwards: 86.4, 84.3, 90.2, 57.8, 70.4, 93.7, 73.6, 83.0. Dude. Bird has a .311 wOBA and .323 xwOBA. This ain’t bad luck. It’s bad hitting.

I tweeted about Smoak last week and he’s a definite fit. The Yankees could plug him in at first base and send Bird to Triple-A, where he would’ve started the year had Aaron Hicks not gotten hurt. Smoak has started slow this year (76 wRC+ going into last night’s game), but he hit .270/.355/.529 (133 wRC+) with 38 homers two years ago and .242/.350/.457 (121 wRC+) with 25 homers last year. Even if he slips again to, say, a 115 wRC+ and 22 homers, that’s more than you can realistically expect from Bird at this point.

The Blue Jays are already in sell mode — they traded Kendrys Morales on Opening Day eve and Kevin Pillar last week — and the J.A. Happ trade shows these teams will do business with each other. I’m sure Toronto would move Smoak right now. He’s making $6M this year and will be a free agent after the season, so he’s not tying up long-term payroll either. It fits. Send them a Nick Nelson/Garrett Whitlock type*, send Bird to Triple-A, and put Smoak at first base.

* If the Blue Jays think they can do better, fine, more power to ’em. Which contenders are looking for first base or DH help though? Maybe the Angels? Toronto’s options might be trade Smoak to the Yankees, hope some contender’s first baseman gets hurt, or keep him and possibly lose him for nothing as a free agent after the season. Hell, Nelson or Whitlock might be an overpay.

John asks: Baltimore’s Chris Davis is 0-for-28 this season (through Tuesday), 0-for-49 since his last hit on 9/14/18, 1-for-67 since 9/5/18, last RBI was 9/4/18, last home run was 8/24/18. His line drives this season have exit velocities of 95 mph. Chase Headley had an epic poor start three years ago and it wasn’t anything near this bad. Is Davis finished, or can he come back from this?

After going 0-for-3 with a walk yesterday, Davis is now hitless in his last 53 at-bats and 61 plate appearances, both MLB records. The guy has more money than I could ever possibly imagine and I feel bad for him. This is just brutal to watch. It’s sad. It really is. And it’s not like Davis is sitting around doing nothing. He works every day to snap out of it. (I’m not going to go back to find it, but the YES Network posted a Toyota Conversation thing the other day where some idiot called Davis a bad teammate for not trying to get better. Get outta here with that.)

The Orioles owe Davis roughly $92M through 2022. This isn’t washed up Alex Rodriguez with $27M and one year plus two months remaining on his contract, or even Troy Tulowitzki at two years and $38M. Davis is not even halfway through his seven-year, $161M contract. It looked like an ill-advised deal the day it was signed. I don’t think anyone saw it going this bad. Can he come back from this? Sure. He’s only 33, he’s a good athlete, and he’s working at it. That doesn’t make it any easier to watch. This has to be eating away at him. How could it not be?

Filed Under: Mailbag

Mailbag: Infield Trade Market, Lineup, Span, Ottavino, Voit

April 5, 2019 by Mike

There are ten questions in this week’s mailbag. It’s a good mailbag, I think. Send your questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com and I’ll answer as many as I can each week.

Round two with Starlin? (Mark Brown/Getty)

Eric asks: So I can’t be the only one writing in about this (if it’s not resolved by Friday) but what is the market for infield help? Todd Frazier comes to mind and I know you tweeted about it. The Yankees do have the luxury of being able to find anyone who plays a non first position, but what’s really out there?

The Blue Jays have already traded Kendrys Morales and Kevin Pillar, so at least one team is open for business. With the new single July 31st trade deadline, maybe more teams are in sell mode early in the season than usual. That would obviously help the Yankees right now given all their injuries.

Frazier is currently on a minor league rehab assignment for his oblique and is expected back next week. The Mets have Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis at third base, and Jed Lowrie’s on his way back from a knee injury, so they have third base depth. Giving up a Grade-C prospect and taking Frazier (and his $9M salary) off the Mets’ hands seems like a decent enough move given the state of the roster. Some other possible trade targets:

  • Asdrubal Cabrera: As a recently signed free agent, he can’t be traded for anything more than $50,000 until June 16th. I imagine the Rangers will hang on to Cabrera and look to trade him for a prospect at the deadline rather than give him away for nothing now.
  • Starlin Castro: Owed $12M between his salary and option buyout this year, and I’m sure the Marlins would give him away to unload that money. A more expensive option than Frazier, but it’s the same idea. Get a rental infielder in a salary dump.
  • Neil Walker: Yet another former Yankee. Walker is dirt cheap ($2M), he can play three infield spots, and he was much more productive as an everyday guy than as a part-timer last year. The June 16th rule that applies to Asdrubal also applies to Walker.
  • Jonathan Villar: Good player who is affordable ($4.825M in 2019) and is under control in 2020 as well. I assume it would take an actual prospect(s) to acquire him whereas some others are salary dump candidates.

The Giants have some expensive infielders I’m sure they’d love to unload in Evan Longoria ($60M through 2022) and Brandon Crawford ($45M through 2021), but taking on multiple years of those guys does not appeal to me at all. Even if the Giants eat a ton of money to facilitate a trade. No need to go after those guys when there are viable rental trade candidates available.

My preference would be Castro over Frazier and, frankly, a Yankees-Marlins trade seems much more realistic than a Yankees-Mets trade. Bring back Starlin, move Gleyber Torres to shortstop, keep DJ LeMahieu at third base I guess? Then figure it all out once Miguel Andujar and/or Troy Tulowitzki return? Blowing through the $246M third luxury tax tier to bring back Castro would be a hell of a thing after the offseason the Yankees just had.

Ryan asks: How about DJLM for leadoff while we wait on Hicksie? Big contact guy, seems to understand the zone.

DJ LeMahieu against lefties and Brett Gardner against righties is probably the way to go right now. LeMahieu’s has never really hit righties all that well and he’s not a true talent ~.500 BABIP hitter, so he’s going to come back to Earth at some point. The first week of the season shouldn’t change what we think about anyone as a player. LeMahieu’s the same guy he was two weeks ago. Players have good (and bad) weeks all the time.

Personally, I want the Yankees to stick Gleyber Torres in the leadoff spot. The Yankees are without four regulars (Miguel Andujar, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton) and now one replacement (Troy Tulowitzki), so there’s no sense in trying to lengthen the lineup. There’s no length to add. I say go with this:

  1. 2B Gleyber Torres
  2. RF Aaron Judge
  3. DH Luke Voit
  4. C Gary Sanchez
  5. 3B DJ LeMahieu
  6. 1B Greg Bird
  7. LF Clint Frazier
  8. CF Brett Gardner
  9. SS Tyler Wade (I think the best defensive alignment has Wade at short and Gleyber at second)

Stack your best hitters atop the lineup and get them as many at-bats as possible. That is the easiest way for the Yankees to increase their chances of scoring runs in any given game. Give the best hitters the most opportunities. LeMahieu at leadoff against lefties would work, but I wouldn’t push my luck against righties until he gives us a legitimate reason to believe he’s better able to handle them than he did the last seven years of his career.

Max asks: I saw that as part of Chris Sale’s extension, Boston deferred up to $50M — $50M deferred at $10M per year from 2035-2039. Does that make financial sense for a team if they want to try to stay near or under the Luxury Tax? Does deferred money count towards the cap or is it dead money that a team can look at simply as an expense?

Apparently deferred money reduces the player’s luxury tax hit now. I was under the impression it was straight average annual value. Guaranteed dollars across guaranteed years because the Collective Bargaining Agreement doesn’t say anything about deferrals. Alex Speier says the annual luxury tax hit is “based in part on net present value of the deal,” which is reduced by deferring money, because $1 today is worth more than $1 five years from now. Sale signed a five-year, $145M extension that begins next year. Straight average annual value says the luxury tax hit should be $29M from 2020-24. Ken Rosenthal says the deferrals reduce Sale’s luxury tax number to $25.6M. That’s a big difference! Jacob deGrom’s extension includes some deferrals that lower his luxury tax number as well. It takes two to tango — the player has to agree to the deferrals and most guys want their money ASAP — but yeah, if the Yankees can reduce luxury tax hits through deferrals, it seems worthwhile. An Aaron Judge extension could be a candidate for deferrals. The Yankees have historically avoided deferrals, it should be noted. I’m sure they have their reasons.

Rob asks: Do you ever see an opener winning the Cy Young or MVP with the way bullpens are now constructed? Do you think a team will ever construct a pitching staff without any starters?

No to an opener winning the Cy Young. That guy is still effectively a reliever and it takes a lot for a reliever to win the Cy Young. They have to have an overwhelmingly great year in a high-leverage role. A guy starting, say, 60 games and throwing 70 total innings without any late-inning accolades probably won’t get any Cy Young support. Or shouldn’t, anyway. If you’re going to throw that few innings and win the Cy Young, you better be getting the highest leverage outs possible. I can’t see the voting body going for this anytime soon.

As for a pitching staff with no starters, yes, I think we’re heading in that direction. It’s probably still several years away, but it does seem possible. Starting next year each team gets a 26-man roster with a 13-pitcher maximum. I could see a team going with 13 pitchers who are two or three-inning types and never go through the lineup a second time. Or maybe it’s 12 two or three-inning guys and a closer, something like that. You could plan on each guy giving you three innings every four days or so, with plenty of rest built in. It’s coming. Not sure when, but eventually.

Michael asks: So Denard Span is still a free agent. I’m surprised he hasn’t even gotten a minor league deal yet. With all the OF injuries, wouldn’t it make sense for the Yankees to sign him to a minor league deal at the very least?

Yes, definitely. I’d give almost anyone a minor league contract. In this case, we’re talking about a team that has two regular outfielders on the injured list, and a free agent who hit .261/.341/.419 (112 wRC+) last season with good baserunning. Span isn’t much of a defender anymore, but geez, the Yankees need some offense and outfield depth. Something like the Gio Gonzalez deal could work. Minor league deal with an April 30th opt-out or something. Span gets to work out and play in actual games to showcase himself and effectively go through Spring Training, and the Yankees would add a depth player. If the injuries persist, they can call Span up. If not, they can let him walk with no strings attached. I’m not sure what Span’s up to right now or what his contract demands are. A minor league deal should be an easy yes from the Yankees’ perspective.

(Omar Rawlings/Getty)

Rich asks: How many innings do we expect Ottavino to throw this year? As of Tuesday night, Boone has gone to Ottavino 4 out of 5 games. I know it’s early, but is there any concern that he may be overused over the course of a season?

Using him four times in the first five games is not ideal, obviously, but there was a team off-day in there and one of those appearances was one batter (four pitches). The Yankees are very diligent with their reliever workloads and I’m not worried at all about Ottavino being overworked during the season. They’ve earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to resting relievers. Ottavino’s early workload seems like one of those random baseball things. He pitched four times in the first five games, then, before you know it, he’ll go five days between appearances and have to pitch in a six-run game to get work in. I trust the Yankees to take care of Ottavino and their other relievers. This is just a blip.

Michael asks: After Tuesday’s 3-1 loss to the Tigers, I was looking at Yankees numbers with RISP. After Tuesday, they somehow ranked 14th with a 109 wRC+ with RISP. If you use OPS however, it is only .621 which was ranked 22nd. In this example, wRC+ puts them at an average team with RISP, but OPS has them in the bottom 3rd of the league. Which one is a better to use?

The Yankees went into yesterday’s game with a 113 wRC+ (16th in MLB) and a .642 OPS (20th in MLB) with runners in scoring position. Their slash line: .190/.379/.263. They’ve drawn a ton of walks with runners in scoring position (22.4%) in the early going and getting on base is the name of the game with wRC+. OBP is a component of OPS and it says a walk is equal to a single, and a single is equal to a double, and so on, and no. Just no. If you’re going to stick with one number, go with wRC+ because it is adjusted for ballpark and more properly values events (singles, doubles, homers, etc.). Regardless of situation (runners in scoring position or otherwise), my preference is having the entire AVG/OBP/SLG (wRC+) slash line, especially early in the season when stat lines can be funky.

Adam asks: Do you think the cold weather is at least partially to blame for the Stanton and Andújar injuries? Shortening the season seems like a non-starter, we’re already playing the WS in Nov, northern teams opening the year in the south pissed a lot of southern teams off a couple years ago. Is there a solution that doesn’t involve building roofs?

Eh, I’m not sure if the injuries are related to the cold. Guys pull muscles all the time — Giancarlo Stanton strained his biceps on a swing and Miguel Cabrera tore his biceps during a swing on a 74° day last June — and Miguel Andujar dove into the bag awkwardly. I don’t know how much the cold was a factor there. Damaging a labrum on a play like that seems like something that could happen at any time. There’s no good solution to early season games in cold weather cities. The teams with domes and in warm weather cities don’t want their home games stacked in April (and September), and there’s basically zero chance existing ballparks in cold weather cities will be retrofitted with retractable roofs. Teams didn’t want to pay for them then and they’re not going to want to pay for them now. I’m not sure what other possible solution is available other than “suck it up.”

Eric asks: Does it seem like Luke Voit is pressing? Paul O’Neill on the YES broadcast noted that Voit is trying to pull everything where last year he was at his best going the other way. 

Yeah, it’s possible. Voit had the home run and reached base four times on Opening Day, then he went 2-for-22 (.091) with three walks and a hit-by-pitch (.231 OBP) before yesterday’s ninth inning homer. I know everyone is on high alert and ready to declare Voit the next Kevin Maas or Shane Spencer or whatever, but it’s been a week. Guys press in April, they press in June, they press in October. It happens. Maybe Voit is the next Maas or Spencer. It is absolutely possible. One week isn’t nearly enough evidence though. It’s a boring answer, I know, but it’s been a week. I’m not going to start changing my expectations for any player or any team on April 5th unless there’s an injury involved.

Mark asks: Considering the Yankees bad start against Baltimore and Detroit, it got me thinking: I feel like the Yankees have been bad against bad teams and good against good teams. It’s probably just my perception and my high expectations for my favorite team but what do you think? How bad have the Yankees been these last few years against bad teams?

It seems like every fan thinks their team stinks against bad teams. It is one of those universal beliefs. They stink with runners in scoring position, the third base coach doesn’t know what he’s doing, etc. etc. The Yankees dropped three of four to the Orioles at home last April, went 11-4 against them the rest of the way, and all anyone talked about was how they couldn’t beat the Orioles.

Anyway, here are the Yankees and their MLB ranks in parenthesis:

vs. 500+ teams vs. sub-.500 teams
2018 41-30 (1st) 59-32 (8th)
2017 26-22 (4th) 65-49 (11th)
2016 52-54 (11th) 32-24 (15th)
2015 40-47 (12th) 47-28 (7th)
2014 41-45 (11th) 43-33 (14th)

From 2014-18, the Yankees had .503 winning percentage against .500+ teams, third best in baseball behind the Cubs (.510) and Dodgers (.507). Their .597 winning percentage against sub-.500 teams was eighth best. From 2017-18, the “the Yankees are good again” years, they had the best winning percentage against .500+ teams (.563) and seventh best against sub-.500 teams (.605).

Those numbers indicate that, relative to the league average, the Yankees have “played down” to their competition the last few years. They haven’t won as many games as sub-.500 teams as you’d expect (or hope). Still, winning six outta ten against sub-.500 teams and playing north of .500 (even slightly) against winning teams is a good recipe for 90+ wins. The Yankees have been consistently in the top half of the league against both good and bad teams the last few years. The year-to-year differences seem like normal fluctuation to me more than anything.

Filed Under: Mailbag

Mailbag: Tanaka, Paxton, Extensions Judge, Rendon, Sanchez

March 29, 2019 by Mike

Eleven questions in the first mailbag of the 2019 regular season. Send your questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com and I’ll answer as many as I can each week.

Tanaka. (Presswire)

Billy asks: With deGrom, Sale, Verlander and other starters getting extensions, would it be wise for the Yankees to extend Tanaka and Paxton now? What would be a fair extension for them?

It wouldn’t be a bad idea. An extension with Masahiro Tanaka might be tough because he’ll presumably have to take a pay cut with his next deal, and who wants to agree to a pay cut two years in advance? Including this season, Tanaka has two years and $45M coming his way. Would he take, say, two years and $34M (the J.A. Happ deal) on top of that? If yes, the Yankees would be able to announce it right away and reduce his luxury tax hit from $22.14M to $19.75M (average value of four years and $79M). I dunno. That one seems unlikely.

A James Paxton extension seems much more realistic. He’ll make $8.575M this year and will remain under team control as an arbitration-eligible player next year. The Cubs just gave Kyle Hendricks four years and $55M at the same service time level as Paxton. That deal begins in 2020, so include his $7.405M salary for 2019, and it is effectively a five-year deal worth $62.405M. Hendricks is a year younger than Paxton and he’s been healthier in his career to date, though that seems like a good reference point for an extension.

Given the Sonny Gray fiasco, I wouldn’t blame the Yankees for waiting it out just to make sure Paxton is someone they want to keep long-term. Then again, the Yankees signed Javier Vazquez long-term before he ever threw a pitch in pinstripes, and they had no trouble trading him. An extension for Tanaka might be tough now because it would presumably include a pay cut. A Paxton deal along the lines of the Hendricks deal? I’m down with that.

Pete asks: I don’t know if there’s any way to track/validate this, but it sure seems like contract extensions are being handed out more frequently now than ever before. Or are we just talking about them more?

Extensions are being handed out more frequently this year. Courtesy of the MLBTR Extension Tracker, here are the number of extensions signed from January 1st through April 1st (roughly Opening Day) the last few years:

  • 2019: 22 (eight by impending free agents)
  • 2018: 8 (none by an impending free agent, but Charlie Blackmon missed the cutoff by three days)
  • 2017: 14 (two by impending free agents)
  • 2016: 13 (two by impending free agents)
  • 2015: 13 (one by an impending free agent)

More impending free agents took themselves off the market with extensions since January 1st this year than did during the same time period from 2015-18 combined. Teams have weaponized free agency. Drive salaries down — the MLB average salary is on pace to decline for the second straight season, which is unprecedented — and make free agency as undesirable as possible, then leverage it into below-market contract extensions. This was the endgame.

Ross asks: Given the Yankees’ ability to increase value and turn low-level draft pitchers into prospects, should the Yankees’ draft as many pitchers as they reasonably can with the intent of using many of them to swap later, once their value is increased?

Roster spots are a finite resource. It’s a good plan, in theory, though they have to stash these guys somewhere. Extended Spring Training doesn’t last forever — whoever doesn’t get assigned to a roster at the end of ExST gets released — so there are only so many places to stash pitchers. Drafting pitchers and hoping they increase their trade value and can be moved before you run out of roster spots in mid-June is tough. The Yankees, like every other team, draft more pitchers than position players each year because there’s always a greater need on the mound. Realistically, I’m not sure they could go even heavier on arms without screwing up their minor league rosters. The Yankees have been pretty good at turning late round picks into tradeable commodities (Phil Diehl, Cody Carroll, Josh Rogers, Taylor Widener) the last few seasons. They could try to do it more, though roster limits are an obstacle.

Juan asks: The Yankees optioned Wade to AAA. If they trade him before the season starts and his new team puts him on the MLB roster, did he lose an option? Or does the option only get triggered if a played is demoted once the season begins?

A player has to spend 20 days in the minors to burn an option. They don’t have to be 20 consecutive days. Just 20 days throughout the season. In Juan’s scenario, Tyler Wade would keep his final option year, which is not necessarily good news for him. He’d presumably rather burn through his final option year and force the team to either keep him on the big league roster going forward, or expose him to other teams willing to put him on their big league roster.

Bill asks: To me, the trade for Tauchman is a real slap in the face to Wade. Wade played 6 positions in ST, hit well, and runs well. Isn’t Wade capable of playing CF if needed? Yankees should do him a favor and trade him. Thoughts?

No to doing Wade a favor and trading him. It is harsh but that is the business. I agree Wade could use a fresh start in an organization better able to give him a greater opportunity for consistent playing time. The Yankees are under no obligation to give him that fresh start though. He has a collectively bargained minor league option remaining and the Yankees are free to stash him in Triple-A as depth. Wade’s not the first player to have the rug pulled out from under him at the end of Spring Training — remember Francisco Cervelli after the Chris Stewart trade? also, the Orioles unexpectedly sent Chance Sisco to Triple-A after claiming Pedro Severino last week — and he won’t be the last. It sucks, but that’s the business.

Kyle asks: Why do Aaron Judge’s projections look awfully low? Fangraphs piece on right fielder power rankings had him second, but with a .255 average and a .517 slugging percentage, despite much better marks in over 1200 PA.

It’s the strikeouts. Aaron Judge is entering unicorn territory. Basically no one has been a true talent 30% strikeout guy and been this productive, especially this early in his career. Chris Davis had MVP caliber seasons in 2013 and 2014, though those were his fifth and sixth big league seasons. He didn’t arrive in the big leagues as that type of player like Judge. Projections are (largely) based on historical comparisons and Judge is short on comparable players. Most guys who strike out like Judge hit for a lower average with lots of power, which is how you get .255 AVG and a .517 SLG. Add in projections being inherently conservative and there you go.

Rendon. (Presswire)

Ian asks: So given Arenado signed his mega-deal, and the Yankees “may” have passed on Harper and Machado to make a run at him prior to his new contract, what do you think the chances are the Yankees are going to make a run at Anthony Rendon when he (maybe) hits FA after this season?

Not great, honestly. I thought Anthony Rendon was more likely to test free agency than Nolan Arenado was before his extension, mostly because Rendon is a Scott Boras client, and Boras usually pushes his top clients to free agency. My guess — and this is a total guess — is the Nationals will push hard to get a Rendon extension done (or push hard to re-sign him) after losing Bryce Harper. Letting MVP caliber guys walk in back-to-back offseasons seems pretty dumb for a win-now team, especially since they’re in position to reset their luxury tax rate this year, and Ryan Zimmerman’s contract will come off the books after the season. The Yankees would have to increase their payroll quite a bit to make Rendon work. Either that or skimp elsewhere and I’m not sure that’ll happen. Maybe Miguel Andujar settles in nicely at third base and the Yankees don’t need Rendon, but yeah, in theory, the Yankees should go after him. I’m skeptical it’ll happen at this point in time.

Emiliano asks: I wonder if minor league GM’s work for their team or for the franchise and what is their job considering that the franchise “owns” the players. Also, do they move up the ladder and land jobs and the big league level?

Minor league general managers work for their minor league team, not their MLB parent club. Triple-A Scranton’s general manager is Josh Olerud (no relation to John, I think). Double-A Trenton’s general manager is Jeff Hurley. Minor league general managers do what general managers in other industries do. They run the business. Marketing, ticket sales, stadium operations, public and media relations, all that. The general manager oversees it all. I’m sure minor league general managers move up the ladder. I mean, if you’re good at the job, teams at other levels are bound to notice. If you’re looking to become a big league general manager and make baseball decisions though, becoming a minor league general manager probably isn’t the best way to go. It’s the same title but minor league and Major League general managers have different job requirements and require different skills.

Ryan asks: If you could lock one Yankee starter in for say 180 IP and 3.00 ERA this season which one and why? Also- same for hitters but with 115 wRC+? No possibility to do better, but no possibility to be worse.

Gotta be CC Sabathia and Troy Tulowitzki, right? Sabathia’s the man and he is #ActuallyGood, though there’s no chance he’ll give the Yankees 180 innings this year. Sabathia as the 180 IP/3.00 ERA gives you a shot at three aces with Luis Severino and James Paxton. When your fourth and fifth guys are Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ, you’re in great shape. As for Tulowitzki, I think he is clearly the worst hitter in the lineup right now. It seems like he’s hit maybe three balls hard since those two home runs early in Spring Training. What do you do with Tulowitzki and his locked in 115 wRC+ when Didi Gregorius returns? Beats me. Worry about it when the time comes.

Dan asks: The Padres dfa of Bryan Mitchell and the cardinals of chasen shreve made me think, the Yankees are very good at passing along guys they’re done with. I’m thinking moving guys like Tyler Austin, Garrett cooper, ty clippard, even if for very little the Yankees get something. What are some recent examples of players that the Yankees couldn’t get anything for and had to straighten up release?

Not including journeymen who opted out of a minor league contract, the last Major League player the Yankees released was Chris Carter two years ago. Before him it was Tommy Layne a week earlier. They released Ike Davis in 2016 and Esmil Rogers in 2015. There were a lot of releases in the hell season of 2013. Ben Francisco, Clay Rapada, Brennan Boesch, Luis Cruz, guys like that. The last big name player the Yankees flat out released was Alfonso Soriano in 2014. Soriano was cooked and the Yankees couldn’t find a trade partner. Guys like Mitchell, Shreve, and Austin were at least young enough and interesting enough to drum up trade suitors. The Yankees are really good and also pretty deep, so inevitably the guys who don’t fit their roster tend to be better than the typical 24th or 25th man on other rosters, hence the trades.

Eric asks: This isn’t a real question, but I hope you’ll oblige! I don’t know how to make gifs, but I’m fairly sure you guys do. Can you post a gif of Gary watering that plant from the Yard Work commercial? I think all of the RAB faithful would love to save this to their phone.

I am a man of the people, so here is said GIF:

We’re going to get a lot of use out of that this season. The GIF comes from the team’s “Bronx Yard Work” promo commercial. It’s pretty funny. “Ottavino’s Nightmare” and “America’s Perchtime” were good too. Adam Ottavino’s a cool dude. Making fun of himself for the Babe Ruth comments rather than ducking the questions or giving cliched answers was a good way to go.

Filed Under: Mailbag

Mailbag: Voit, 26-Man Roster, Judge, Stanton, Sabathia, Ichiro

March 22, 2019 by Mike

We have ten questions in the final mailbag before Opening Day. Starting next week, we can begin answering questions about meaningful regular season baseball. Hooray. Anyway, send your questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com.

Voit. (Presswire)

Eric asks: The odds that Luke Voit makes the AL All-Star Team are ___?

Much better than I realized! I’ll say Voit’s chances of being an All-Star are 35%. That’s pretty darn good. A week or two ago I wrote about the grim catching situation in the American League. First base isn’t much better. In fact, it is shockingly bad. Here is the ZiPS projected 2019 wOBA leaderboard for AL first basemen (first basemen typically earn an All-Star Game selection with their bat):

  1. Joey Gallo, Rangers: .376 (he’s really a left fielder)
  2. Luke Voit, Yankees: .352
  3. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers: .344
  4. Matt Olson, Athletics: .342 (suffered a potentially serious hand injury earlier this week)
  5. Dan Vogelbach, Mariners: .339 (battling Jay Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion for playing time)

Yeesh. By ZiPS projected WAR, Voit is fourth behind Olson (hurt), Gallo (an outfielder), and Marwin Gonzalez (playing third base). The AL first base situation is shockingly weak right now. Voit’s All-Star competition at first base probably isn’t those guys mentioned above. I think it’s more likely to be someone like Jose Abreu or Justin Smoak, who could wind up being their team’s token All-Star. Maybe my 35% number is too low?

Paul asks: With an additional roster spot being a win for the players, is it also possibly a loss since it could mean lower salaries? Teams staying under the luxury tax, which didn’t have a corresponding increase, will have fewer dollars per player to spread around.

Yes and no. Yes because you’re right, the luxury tax threshold is not increasing despite the addition of a roster spot, and no because most teams are nowhere close to the threshold anyway. The 26-man/13-pitcher roster means every team is adding an extra bench guy and my guess is that extra bench guy will be league minimum up-and-down type rather than a big earner. Even the poorest/cheapest teams should be able to add another league minimum guy to their payroll without cutting money elsewhere. The universal DH is an x-factor here. National League teams would have to add another starting position player with a universal DH, and that could be costly. They might have to trim elsewhere to make it work financially, so, in that case, yes, the 26th roster spot could mean fewer dollars per player overall. As things stand, I don’t think it’ll matter because I expect that 26th roster spot to go to a cheap young player. Anyone who would cost a couple million bucks and require cutting elsewhere is already getting signed anyway.

Jeff asks: Frank Robinson’s recent passing reminded me of a concept that intrigued me as a kid … the Player/Manager. Joe Torre did it with the Mets. Pete Rose was the most recent to do it in 1984. The Yankees clearly value Brett Gardner’s clubhouse presence. Is there such a thing as a Player/Coach? Are the any roster advantages to such a scenario?

There hasn’t been a player-coach or player-manager in the big leagues since Rose in 1984. Manny Ramirez spent a few months as a Triple-A player-coach with the Cubs in 2014, so it has been done fairly recently at a high level. These days, playing and coaching/managing seems like way too much work to do both well at the same time. It takes a lot of time and effort to be a productive big league ballplayer. As a coach or manager, forget it, you have many people to worry about, plus the front office is in your ear all the time. Even as a fourth outfielder and assistant coach, and carrying a lighter workload in both roles, I’m not sure one person could do it. As far as I know there would be no roster advantages. I can’t imagine you could get away using a player-coach to skirt the luxury tax.

Danny asks: What do you think of a universal DH rule that ties the starting DH to the starting pitcher? When the starter is removed from the game, his DH is removed as well, and when the DH spot next comes up to bat, a bench player must be used. This would allow the strategy and increased playing time of the NL to remain, while also not forcing pitchers to hit. It was an idea I originally heard Michael Kay pitch during a game broadcast and I think it’s a great compromise. Do you see any potential issues with it?

That seems like a lot of headache for what, two or three pinch-hitting appearances per game? How much strategy is involved in that anyway? Pinch-hitting for a reliever in the late innings of a close game is a common sense move. Think about it, with this rule, when the Yankees visit Citi Field during the Subway Series, they would lose Giancarlo Stanton once the starting pitcher is out of the game. Either that or they’d have to move him into the outfield and remove someone else to keep his bat in the lineup. All that so DJ LeMahieu or Tyler Wade could get an extra at-bat? Eh. The end result here is taking a good hitter out of the lineup (good enough to start at DH) through no fault of his own (because the starting pitcher is out) and replacing him with inferior players (not good enough to start at DH). I feel like anything gained in terms of increased “strategy” would be more than made up by keeping the best players on the field more often. Long live the DH. No one watches to see sac bunts and pinch-hitters and double-switches.

Ben asks: Given Judge’s surplus of power and the way he is hitting with the reduced leg kick on 2 strike counts, is there a reason he shouldn’t always go with this more subdued leg kick? Could it theoretically reduce strikeouts since I assume that’s why he’s employing it with 2 strikes?

Using the no-stride swing full-time could further reduce strikeouts, though I don’t think it’s necessary. I say let Aaron Judge use his leg kick before getting to two strikes so he has the best chance at maximum damage. Once he’s in a two-strike count, go to the no-stride approach. Could he eventually go with the no-stride approach all the time? Sure. I don’t think we are anywhere close to having enough information to know whether that’s a good idea yet. Judge started using the no-stride two-strike swing this spring, and yes, he’s socked some dingers and extra-base hits, but we need more information. Let’s see how it plays during the regular season and over a few months rather than a few weeks. Judge is so good that I’m inclined to say let’s not change things too much.

Judge. (Presswire)

Andy asks: Could you explore the effect of moving to a full time DH could have on Stanton? I thought I read an article that claimed there was a negative effect on offense when a player isn’t regularly in the field?

A few years ago research showed there’s about a 5% penalty for being a DH, meaning a player would be expected to perform 5% worse offensively as a DH than he would while playing the field. That’s on average. Each individual case is different. Last year Giancarlo Stanton’s overall offense was down about 13.5% from his career average, though he was quite a bit more productive at DH (150 wRC+) than he was as an outfielder (101 wRC+). It could be a sample size thing, or it could be that his body was fresher as a DH, and that he had more time review video in-game and make adjustments. I’m not sure. Stanton’s been a pretty good defensive outfielder throughout his career and it does feel kinda like a waste to stick him at DH so often. Then again, if it’s keeping him healthy and he proves to be one of those guys who performs better at DH than while playing the field, might as well roll with it.

Jeff asks (short version): Why are you against the 28 man September roster other than player service time and could you see an similar 28 man April expansion?

Expanded rosters in April would be a logistical nightmare. It would require pushing the entire minor league regular season back a month. The minor league season ends in early September each year and only a handful of teams go to the postseason, making it much easier to call up players. I understand the concerns that expanding rosters can impact postseason races, but, generally speaking, teams in the race still rely on their regulars and best players. The Yankees aren’t going to bring in Stephen Tarpley to nail down a one-run ninth inning lead at Fenway Park, you know? Players in September are beat up and worn down, and anything teams can do to reduce their workload in blowout situations is worthwhile.

Elliot asks: While I agree with your article on why CC should take the suspension to start the season, wouldn’t the suspension prohibit him from being in the dugout/on the field for opening day ceremonies (which everyone wants for his last opening day)? Could he file his appeal on Opening Day and withdraw it after the game to manipulate it for the same purpose, and start German for game 7 (especially if there is a rain out in games 2-6)?

I’m pretty sure CC Sabathia can take part in the pregame Opening Day ceremonies even while suspended. Rule 4.07 says any player, manager, or coach serving a suspension “may not be in the dugout or press box during the course of a game.” Before the game and during the game are different things. In fact, I’m pretty sure Gary Sanchez still took batting practice while serving his four-game suspension following the Tigers brawl two years ago. Anyone serving a disciplinary suspension can still do all their usual work before and after games. (Performance-enhancing drug suspensions are another matter.) They just can’t be around the team during the game itself. Sabathia should be in the clear for the Opening Day ceremonies. He’ll probably go sit in the team’s front office suite during the game.

CJ asks: You mentioned that Tyler Wade would likely be substituted in to facilitate a 5 man infield. How would you rank the Yankee infielders (other than Wade) to move into the outfield for a 4 man outfield against Joey Gallo?

Interesting! It definitely can’t be Luke Voit or Greg Bird. Imagine them running around the outfield? Oy vey. Voit did actually play some left field in Triple-A with the Cardinals, but that didn’t last long, and I think it’s easy to understand why. Not including Wade, I’d rank the infielders in terms of their potential outfield prowess this way:

  1. Didi Gregorius
  2. DJ LeMahieu
  3. Gleyber Torres
  4. Miguel Andujar
  5. Troy Tulowitzki
  6. Luke Voit
  7. Greg Bird

That is little more than a ranking of athleticism. I figure the middle infielders are the best athletes and the most mobile, so they’re the best bets to play the outfield. With a three-man infield, you’re basically conceding grounders, so I don’t see a point in keeping your rangiest players on the infield. A grounder is most likely going for a hit. In that case, put the guys with the most range in the outfield and go all-in on air balls, and that’s how I set my rankings. If the Yankees ever go with a four-man outfield, I imagine Wade would replace Andujar to make it all work.

Corey asks: Now that Mo did it, do you think there’s a chance Ichiro is a unanimous first ballot HOFer? I’d say he deserves it.

Definitely. Ichiro Suzuki is a slam dunk Hall of Famer and I would say he deserves to go in unanimously even if Mariano Rivera hadn’t done it. Rivera being unanimous makes it more likely others will get in unanimously going forward, including Ichiro. The only good reason for leaving him off the ballot is giving the spot to another player who needs more help, and with the ballot starting to unclog, that shouldn’t be an issue. Ichiro doesn’t need to lean on his numbers in Japan to get into the Hall of Fame, though I do believe his status as a global baseball icon should be considered, and that makes him an inner circle guy. All-time great player on two continents.

Filed Under: Mailbag

Mailbag: Sabathia, Opener, Trade Deadline, Judge, Florial, Voit

March 15, 2019 by Mike

There are ten questions in this week’s mailbag. Only one more mailbag until Opening Day! Can’t wait. Anyway, send your mailbag questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com.

Sabathia. (Presswire)

Dominic asks: Last chat you talked about CC’s five game suspension he will serve this season. Given that he’s starting the year injured, can he serve his suspension concurrently with his IL stint? Or is there a loophole wherein the team can retroactively put him on the IL after the suspension?

There’s no loophole and CC Sabathia can not serve his suspension while on the injured list. Performance-enhancing drug suspensions can be served while on the injured list, but not disciplinary suspensions for brawls or throwing at hitters, etc. (Don’t get mad at me. I didn’t make the rules.) For example, last season Yuli Gurriel served his five-game suspension for the Yu Darvish incident starting on Opening Day, then he was placed on the disabled list for the hand injury he suffered in Spring Training. The Yankees have to play with a 24-man roster during the suspension, which isn’t a huge deal because Sabathia is a starting pitcher and he wouldn’t play between starts anyway. The only question is whether the Yankees want to play shorthanded for the first five games of the season (suspension then injured list), or a few weeks into the season (injured list then suspension).

Nathan asks (short version): This might be more of a chat question, but how is Harper discussing his intent to talk to Trout that much different than GMs openly discussing their interest level/intent to sign a particular free agent? If Harper’s comments are tampering, the GMs comments have to be viewed the same way.

Mike Trout is under contract with another team. That’s the key difference. Players and executives aren’t supposed to talk about players under contract. Executives talking about their level of interest in Bryce Harper and Manny Machado over the winter skirted the tampering rules because they were free agents and not under contract with another club. I think MLB should allow players to openly discuss players with other teams like Harper did with Trout. Make players exempt from tampering rules. Similar to the NBA, it would create buzz for the game, and it’s silly to think players don’t talk to each other about this stuff behind the scenes. I get banning executives from discussing other players. That makes sense. Letting players tamper keeps MLB in the news and gives fans a reason to stay engaged.

Greg asks (short version): If the opener thing continues to increase in popularity among major league teams as appears will be the case, do you think MLB (or the non-analytic stat community) should adopt an arbitrary statistical measure for those guys along the lines of the save, the hold and the quality start? What should it be called and what should be required to earn it?

I don’t think it would be necessary and, frankly, baseball probably doesn’t need another pitching stat that tells us more about usage than performance. I guess you could call a scoreless first inning an “open?” Or maybe it’s a first inning in which the pitcher’s team finishes with the lead or tied? This would help everyone keep track of who is being used as an opener — it’s going to weird to look at the back of Ryne Stanek’s baseball card in 20 years and see he had 29 starts and 30 relief appearances in 2018 — but I’m not sure there’s any analytical value in such a stat. It doesn’t tell us about their performance, necessarily. It’s a bookkeeping thing. Maybe it would help relievers in arbitration? Or maybe it hurts them since you can now differentiate between starts and opens. Something to help us easily keep track of who’s starting and who’s opening would be nice, at least until managers start managing to the stat the same way they manage to wins (try to get the starter through five innings) and saves (build their entire bullpen strategy around the ninth inning).

Josh asks: If you know an opposing team is going to use an opener, what are your thoughts on altering your lineup so that basically your regular leadoff hitter actually hits cleanup and so on?

I don’t like it. You’re pushing your best hitters down in the lineup and robbing them of at-bats. I’m not necessarily referring to the 162-game season — last year the Yankees’ No. 1 hitter received 50 more plate appearances than the No. 4 hitter — I’m talking about at-bats in that individual game. You’re making it less likely your top hitters get that one extra at-bat in the ninth inning, which could make a huge difference in a close game. Not only that, but you’re also making it more likely the opener succeeds because he’s (theoretically) facing inferior hitters. I get the idea, but I’m inclined to stick with the same lineup construction. Get your best hitters high in the lineup and up to the plate as much as possible. If they have to face an opener in the first inning, so be it.

Nick asks: Total cart before the house stuff here but with a farm system loaded at its lower levels, should a “top of his game” MadBum (or any other true, top of the rotation type ace) become available at the trade deadline, would the Yankees have the pieces to win a bidding war?

It’s hard to say. The Yankees are short on high-end prospects at the upper levels of the minors right now, and those guys are usually most in demand at the trade deadline, so they might be at a disadvantage come trade deadline time. Then again, if a few of those lower level guys (Deivi Garcia, Roansy Contreras, Antonio Cabello, etc.) really bust out this season, they would become more attractive in trades. Ultimately, it comes down to the other team’s preference. The Giants might be more willing to take lower level guys for Madison Bumgarner than, say, the Indians would for Corey Kluber. The good news is the Yankees have talent in their farm system. It’s not barren like it was way back when. They should be able to get whatever they need in July. It just might be more difficult to make a match than it was a year or two ago.

Judge. (Presswire)

Jerry asks: Would swinging earlier in the count help Aaron Judge cut down his strikeouts? Or would that negatively affect his OB%? Maybe being more aggressive yields more hits to offset the fewer walks.

Judge is a career .395/.393/.775 hitter in the first two pitches of an at-bat and a career .244/.399/.515 hitter thereafter. Based on that, yes, he should swing early in the count more often, though it’s not quite that simple. There’s a lot of selection bias at play. Judge’s numbers on the first and second pitch are so good because he’s usually swinging at only very hittable pitches that early in the count. If he starts swinging early in the count more often, pitchers will adjust, and try to get him to fish out of the zone. With his plate discipline, that might not be a problem. Judge is so good and such a smart hitter than I think it’s best just to let him do his thing and not force a change. Trust him to adjust when pitchers tell him he has to adjust. He’s done it before and he’ll do it again.

Kian asks (short version): I know this is a long shot and zero chance Yanks do this…. But after reading our lack of options in center-field if Hicks can’t start the season, is there anything more than a 0% chance that Florial starts there?

I feel like I get asked some version of this question each spring. “This Major Leaguer might not be ready for Opening Day, so what about going with this prospect who’s having a great spring?” Estevan Florial is hitting .345/.406/.517 this spring and he looks great. That doesn’t mean he’s any more Major League ready than he was four weeks ago. Florial hit .255/.354/.361 (110 wRC+) around his wrist injury in High-A last season and asking him to jump from that to the big leagues is unfair. He’s not on the 40-man roster and he doesn’t have to be added until after the season, so there are roster ramifications here as well. The Aaron Hicks injury shouldn’t change Florial’s development plan. You’re only making a bad problem worse. Teams sign players like Billy Burns for situations like this. To cover for an injury without rushing prospects. Florial’s pitching recognition might not be Double-A ready right now. Big leaguers would almost certainly pick him apart.

David asks: Who is the third string centerfielder? It seems they are reluctant to put Judge in there, but why?

I don’t think the Yankees want Aaron Judge to deal with the extra wear-and-tear. Center fielders have more ground to cover and they have to back up on every ball hit to an outfield corner. It’s a lot of running. There’s a reason it’s a young man’s position. I’m sure Judge could do it and play a passable center field on an everyday basis if pushed into action, but if the Yankees can save him some running and avoid fatigue throughout the season, by all means, do it. He’s too important.

Paul asks: Seriously, Voit looks like he’s for real. Why was he so cheap to get?

I guess it would be the same reason why Didi Gregorius and Aaron Hicks were so cheap, right? Their former teams undervalued them (or overrated the players they received in the trade), and the Yankees had a better and more accurate evaluation of the player, and/or had a better plan to help the player reach his potential. Teams make mistakes all the time. All the time. Even the smart ones. The Cardinals might’ve undervalued Voit because he was stuck behind Matt Carpenter and Jose Martinez on their internal first base depth chart, or not understood the value of his hard contact. Maybe Voit isn’t for real and last year proves to be a fluke. It could happen. But guys like Gregorius, Hicks, and Chad Green show the Yankees are pretty excellent at identifying buy-low players in other organizations. I don’t know how to answer this question other than to say the Yankees are just that smart.

Mike asks: With the removal of the August trade waivers, could you foresee more veteran players on minor league deals with August 1st, August 15th, and August 31 opt outs? If multiple teams have the same needs, these players could have a mini free agency in August. Could also force more teams to call these types of players up to the MLB roster to avoid losing depth and then optioning young controlled players.

Yes, definitely. Maybe it’s not a set opt-out date, but instead a blanket opt-out clause that allows the player to leave if another team is willing to put him directly on their MLB roster. Those clauses are common in Spring Training. The end of trade waivers could bring those clauses to the regular season as well. Teams can’t go out and trade for help when an injury strikes in August (and September!) now, so it only makes sense for players and their agents to ensure they can escape Triple-A after the trade deadline so they can be available to teams in need. It’s a win-win. The player gets a chance at the big leagues and teams get more options for late season roster help.

Filed Under: Mailbag

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