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A lesson to take from the Sonny Gray disappointment

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(Presswire)

The Sonny Gray era in New York came and went much faster than anyone could have expected. He was one of the 2017’s trade deadlines prizes: an already successful 27 year-old with two more seasons under team control. Aside from a rough 2016, Gray was excellent in Oakland and recorded a 3.42 ERA in 705 innings. Alas, Gray was not the same pitcher in pinstripes. He was decent down the stretch in 2017, but 2018 was an abject disaster. Enough so that the Yankees were ready to move on.

Hindsight makes for easy judgement, but the truth is that the Gray trade was a sound decision at the time. How he was handled after joining the club is where we can find fault. It’s also a learning opportunity. In this case: if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Gray built his career relying heavily on his fastball and sinker, only going to a curveball or slider as needed. Once he joined the Yankees, that allocation changed.

Since 2015, Yankees’ hurlers have thrown 46 percent non-fastballs. That’s easily the most frequent in baseball, ahead of the second-place Dodgers (43.4 percent). This isn’t a coincidence. Gray, at least in the Yankees’ eyes, was the perfect pitcher to implement this philosophy. The thought was that he didn’t use his curveball or slider enough. Low usage and high spin rates undoubtedly enticed the Yankees, who saw the under-utilization as an opportunity. Instead, it might have been his downfall.

Marrying the Yankees’ philosophy to Gray’s pitch usage didn’t happen in earnest until 2018. Perhaps that’s why Gray was actually decent in the second half of 2017 (3.72 ERA). Although Gray still leaned on hard pitches in 2018, the gap substantially shrunk. For all the debate about having Austin Romine as his personal catcher and whether or not he could handle the Big Apple, maybe more fault should be on the shoulders of the team.

Going forward, the Yankees are unlikely to abandon this pitching style. Hitters have more success against fastballs, so the evidence is in the team’s favor. However, if there are any takeaway from the Gray Saga, it’s that a one size fits all approach isn’t for the best. Sure, a pitcher could have excellent underlying Statcast metrics on his curve or slider, but that doesn’t mean those pitches need to be thrown more often. If a guy has had past success without throwing them at a high rate, why change? Making drastic adjustments for a struggling pitcher or one who doesn’t have a good fastball is one thing. That wasn’t the case for Gray.

On the bright side, the acquisitions of J.A. Happ and James Paxton are of some solace. Granted, neither have breaking balls with elite spin rates like Gray, so it’s not like the Yankees were going to try anything new. Rather, it’s the fact that the Yankees were willing to trade for them despite not aligning with the club’s pitching blueprint. Happ and Paxton go to their heat around 75 percent of the time, yet that didn’t scare the Yankees away. Perhaps this is an indication that the Yankees no longer feel the need to find guys that they can mold into their vision. Whatever the case may be, I don’t think they’ll try changing anyone’s pitch usage again anytime soon, unless it’s a last resort.

James Paxton’s command and the effect of his batterymates

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(Stephen Brashear/Getty)

Anytime a player is traded to a new team, new experiences await. Whether it’s a new home, new city, new mound, new teammates…the list goes on. James Paxton was traded to the Yankees in November, so he’s had ample time to get his living arrangements in order. What he hasn’t had a chance to do is build a rapport with his new batterymates, Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine. Fortunately, spring training will be an opportunity to do so.

Being familiar with one another is important in the pitcher-catcher relationship, but there are certain traits that are unique to both positions. In particular, the catcher can’t aim a pitcher’s offering, and the pitcher doesn’t have the ability to frame a pitch. Paxton comes to the Yankees presumably as the same pitcher he was with the Mariners, but he won’t be pitching to the same catcher anymore. How do the Yankees’ catchers, Sanchez in particular, since he should get the bulk of Paxton’s innings, stack up against the southpaw’s former partner?

Tale of the tape: Zunino vs. Sanchez

Paxton will no longer pitch to one of baseball’s best defensive catchers, Mike Zunino. The bat never came around like Seattle hoped, but Zunino was an elite receiver from day one. He’s had some monster framing years, most notably 2014, when he racked up 22 framing runs. His framing stats have declined in recent years, but as Jeff Sullivan wrote, part of this is due to the rest of the league catching on to framing.

Sanchez, who will be Paxton’s new main partner, receives plenty of hate for his defense. Passed balls are the reason for the disdain, but that doesn’t make him a bad receiver. There’s no question that he needs to improve his blocking, but he helps the defense in other ways, including throwing and pitch framing. The Yankees have bought into framing for over a decade, and Sanchez is yet another backstop who shines with his presentation.

Metric (2018) Sanchez Zunino
CSAA 0.005 0.008
CSAA Standard Deviation +/- 0.002 +/- 0.002
Framing Runs/7000 opportunities 4.9 8.4
Framing Runs/7000 opportunities Standard Deviation +/- 2.2 +/- 1.9
Called Strike% on Edge Pitches 50.02% 50.75%
Team Avg. FB Velocity 93.8 90.8
Team Avg. FB Spin 2331 2174
Team Avg. Breaking Spin 2532 2335

Zunino has an edge on Sanchez in Called Strikes Above Average (CSAA) and Framing Runs, though there is some uncertainty about this. Both catchers are within each other’s error bars, meaning that Sanchez could be just as good or better than Zunino. He could still be worse! But ultimately, there really isn’t a big difference between the two. They’re both good framers.

A big difference between the two are the pitching staffs they handle. Stylistically, the Yankees and Mariners are polar opposites. The Yankees ranked first, first, and second in team fastball velocity, fastball spin rate, and breaking ball spin rate, respectively. Seattle placed last, second to last, and fifth-worst, respectively, in those same categories. Simply put: Sanchez has a much tougher group to handle.

Although Zunino had an easier staff to catch, be aware that CSAA adjusts for the pitcher, among other things. It judges Zunino and Sanchez independent of who is on the mound. That doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t take the two different styles into consideration. Rather, perhaps it lends credence to the potential of Sanchez being in the positive range of his standard deviation while Zunino is in the negative range.

I’d be remiss without mentioning Romine here. He’s within the same range of certainty as Sanchez and Zunino, meaning that Paxton is also in good hands with him. Ideally, it won’t be more than a handful of starts that Romine needs to catch, but it’s reassuring to have a backup of Romine’s defensive caliber.

Catchers aside, what does Paxton bring to the table?

Paxton has excellent control

Pitchers who work quickly and fill up the strike zone are a manager’s dream. Paxton is just that. He challenges hitters with his fastball-heavy approach, knowing full well that they can’t catch up to him. Take a look:

Based on the above heatmap, it’s no surprise that Paxton had the fifth-highest called strike probability (CS Prob) of all starters last year. That’s the likelihood of any given pitch being a called strike, based on probabilities that are assigned to certain areas within and outside the strike zone. It’s best explained here, although the following diagram from that article is a great illustration as well:

(Baseball Prospectus)

Those rounded squares are different bands of called strike probability, with all pitches in the innermost area called a strike 90 percent of the time and all pitches in the outermost area called a strike 10 percent of the time. Keep in mind that these are not hard and fast lines of demarcation; the likelihood of a called strike gradually decreases as the area expands. Paxton lives in the 90 percent band, hence his high CS Prob.

Paxton doesn’t have great command

We’ve established that Paxton throws lots of strikes, but the quality of strikes is a different story. Getting strikes on pitches in the aforementioned 90 percent band isn’t challenging, but being able to locate pitches on the corners consistently is another thing.

CSAA, when used for pitchers, is a good proxy for command. Because CSProb assigns the likelihood of strike calls, CSAA can take this a step further by assessing the frequency of getting strikes at varying ranges of probability, controlled for things like the count, catcher, umpire, and hitter. Able to nab a bunch of strikes in a low probability area? Good command. Lose strikes in a higher probability area? Not so much. Anecdotally, a lot of pitchers lose strikes when they miss the target, forcing the catcher to make awkward movements. So how did Paxton do? He had the worst CSAA in baseball last season, at -3.38 percent.

I’m not so sure it’s fair to say that this means Paxton has the worst command in baseball, because after all, he just might not be trying to paint the corners. It’s not like he needs to. Plus, although he’s always been below average per CSAA, he’s been pretty consistent at throwing to the edge of the zone.

Year Edge% CSAA CSProb
2013 45.10% -0.88 48.80%
2014 47.90% -1.02 45.30%
2015 45.10% -0.76 47.50%
2016 49.20% -1.33 50.40%
2017 46.60% -1.98 50.00%
2018 46.40% -3.38 53.00%

For whatever reason, Paxton got absolutely hosed on borderline fastballs compared to the rest of the league. You would think fastballs are the easiest pitches for umpires to judge since they are the straightest offering.

% of Edge Pitches Called Strikes
Pitch Paxton MLB
Fastball (4-Seam) 41.4% (379 pitches) 47.40%
Cutter 31.4% (35 pitches) 47.60%
Curveball 46.9% (96 pitches) 48.60%

So Paxton had virtually the same edge percentage in 2017 as he did in 2018, yet his CSAA tanked. Umpires didn’t give him the benefit of the doubt on fastballs near the corners. Bizarre.

Is Zunino to blame?

What makes Paxton’s poor CSAA surprising at first is that he’s thrown to a great framer for his entire career. How could he struggle to get the extra calls on the edges while throwing to a catcher that excels in that department? The key thing to understand is that Zunino is not the culprit. Pitcher CSAA level sets with who’s catching, hitting, and umpiring. The whole point of the stat is to try to isolate the pitcher’s contribution, all else being equal. So if this is on Paxton, why is it happening?

I looked at Paxton’s heatmap for edge pitches against the Mariners’ heat map for called strikes on the edge. Ideally, I would have compared Paxton to the entire league, but I could only generate the heat maps by team. For what it’s worth: all teams are pretty similar to the Mariners in this regard. Plenty of borderline low strikes called, but few at the top of the zone. The problem for Paxton? He throws a lot of high heaters. Now we’re getting somewhere (click image for large view).

Left: All of Paxton’s edge pitches. Right: All of Seattle’s edge pitches called for strikes.

I don’t want to overwhelm you with heatmaps, but there are a few other important ones to note that emphasize my point about Paxton’s high fastballs. Here is where he locates his fastball on the edges, here are his strike calls on the edges (on all pitch types), and here are the balls on the edges (on all pitch types). Keep in mind, Paxton throws his fastball around 65 percent of the time. So those strike calls you at the bottom of the edge? Those are rare.

Paxton works upstairs quite a bit with fastball, and those simply don’t get called strikes very often. CSAA doesn’t penalize Paxton too harshly for each pitch in that region, since it’s a low-probability strike. However, because he predominantly hits the upper edges, the penalty adds up. Add that to the lack of pitches thrown in the lower-right quadrant of the edge, where most extra strikes are picked up, doesn’t help Paxton either.

Why Sanchez and Paxton might pair better

Here’s what we know: Paxton throws a good portion of his edge pitches at the top of the zone, but umpires are disinclined to call high strikes.  Even the best framers aren’t going to steal strikes up in the zone (click image for larger view):

Those are the locations where Zunino, Sanchez, and Romine received strikes on the black last season. All of them do well at the bottom of the box, to no surprise. The most noticeable difference is that Sanchez (and Romine, to a degree) do a tad better than Zunino as pitches elevate.

What gives me some hope, not that we need any for Paxton (he’s really good), is that he might get a few extra strikes at the top with Sanchez and Romine. However, we might not see this reflected in his CSAA, because it adjusts for who’s catching. Where we could see the impact is the percentage of fastballs called for strikes on the edge, which is a raw and unadjusted amount.

Zunino might be a better framer than anyone the Yankees have, but he also might not be the right match for a pitcher like Paxton. All positive framing catchers are going to do well stealing strikes down because it jibes with today’s umpiring. Zunino appears to build most of his framing value on low offerings. Sanchez and Romine do well there as well, but it’s not as concentrated as Zunino. Sanchez perhaps meshes best in terms of presenting Paxton’s high fastball. With guys like Chad Green and Aroldis Chapman on the roster, maybe it’s not a surprise that Sanchez has held his own on higher pitches. Those two have power fastballs and like to elevate them, similar to Paxton.

Chances are that Paxton’s transition to Sanchez and Romine will be a lateral one. The Yankees catchers are practically in a dead heat with Zunino when it comes to the advanced metrics. Any downside seems unlikely, as Sanchez and Romine would have to decline suddenly. Fortunately, there is no indication of that occurring anytime soon. The best case scenario is that Paxton will get high strikes more often in pinstripes. The adjusted metrics might not change, but the raw results could improve.

The Yankee Pitching Staff is Underrated

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(Mike Stobe/Getty)

“The Yankees need more pitching,” virtually everyone in your Yankee life has told you this offseason (and probably every other one before it). That’s true, but only because all 30 teams in baseball need more pitching: high-end pitching talent is hard to come by and there’s no such thing as too much good pitching. But the way the Yankee pitching is discussed by many fans and analysts has led the staff to become significantly underrated. Let’s be clear: the Yankees are hard to hit. They’re one of the hardest teams in the league to hit against, in fact, and they figure to maintain that production next year.

Most of the Yankee moves this offseason have centered around augmenting the bullpen and improving the rotation. The team’s short-sighted neglect of Manny Machado and Bryce Harper has left a lot of fans—myself included—frustrated, but it has also obscured the fact that in an offseason where contenders like the Dodgers, Indians and Astros have done little-to-nothing to improve and the defending champion Red Sox haven’t done anything at all, the Yankees have actually improved. That is especially true when it comes to pitching. Let’s break this one down.

1. Rotation

It seems to be conventional wisdom among many Yankee fans that the team’s starting pitching is inadequate for a team trying to win a World Series. There is no such thing as too much pitching, but the reality is that the Yankees have deployed one of baseball’s most effective rotations since the beginning of 2017: the Yankees ranked 4th in the American League by bWAR and 2nd by fWAR in both 2017 and 2018, and the team’s strikeout, walk and home run rates are all in the top 5 in the league over the two years.

But even despite that success, it was clear that improving the rotation was a top offseason priority. The Yankees started Sonny Gray, Domingo German, Jonathan Holder, Lance Lynn or Luis Cessa 52 times in 2018—almost a third of all games. (That the Yankees still won 100 games says a lot about the ferocity of the Yankee offense and, again bucking conventional wisdom, both Joe Girardi and Aaron Boone’s bullpen management.) The addition of James Paxton, coupled with the return of CC Sabathia and a full season of J.A. Happ, was designed to avoid a repeat of that revolving door in 2018. It’s clear that, on paper at least, the Yankees significantly improved.

Paxton, a power lefty who is dominant when healthy, gives the Yankees another legitimate top-of-the-rotation arm to pair alongside Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka. Severino, despite his shaky second half, owns a 3.18 ERA (140 ERA+) over 384.2 innings since the start of 2017, striking out almost 30 percent of batters faced. He is one of a few pitchers in baseball who can be considered a legitimate ace. Tanaka is a bit underrated due to recent inconsistency: he has a 3.59 ERA (118 ERA+) in 824 innings since 2014. While Paxton is an injury risk (which pitcher isn’t?) the goal is to acquire high-end talent, and that’s exactly what the Yankees have at the top of their staff.

On the back end of the rotation, Happ and Sabathia will be tasked to fill the innings that were filled by Gray and co. last year. Happ, despite his age, remains very effective (he logged a 3.65 ERA (3.98 FIP) in 177.2 innings in 2018) and is a more than a reliable 4th option. Sabathia, who returns to New York for his 10th season, is one of the best 5th starters in the league: he threw 153 innings of 3.65 ERA (120 ERA+) ball last year, again made possible by the fact he hardly gives up hard contact.

This all adds up to a rotation that is markedly improved from last year’s, barring significant injury. It’s hard to shake the feeling that they should have added another top-end arm in Patrick Corbin (choosing Happ over Corbin, I suspect, is going to irritate me for while, and I like Happ) and improved even further, but even still: the Yankees should have one of baseball’s best rotations in 2019.

2. Bullpen

There is nothing under the radar about the Yankee bullpen, which features several high-powered, swing-and-miss arms and is almost certainly the game’s best. The Yankee bullpen was one of only four in baseball last year to boast a K/9 rate over 10 and the only one in the league with a rate over 11, a major contributor to the fact that it was the league’s top bullpen by a full win, per Fangraphs.

David Robertson, one of the most important bullpen pieces in the 2018 season, is off to Philadelphia, and while the Yankees will miss him, his loss was quickly mitigated by the return of Zach Britton and the addition of Adam Ottavino. They join Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances and Chad Green in the back-end of the bullpen, giving the Yankees (in theory) five top bullpen arms. In the Age of the Bullpen™, I’d say that qualifies as Pretty Good.

Bullpens are notoriously fickle and almost impossible to predict, but I’m confident saying that this group should be as unhittable as it was last year. Chapman, Betances, Ottavino and Britton all have an established track record of success across multiple seasons: they’re each elite relievers and have been for a long time. Green, even though he wasn’t as dominant in 2018 as 2017, was more than a reliable option for Aaron Boone last year.

These five arms allow the Yankees to shorten games considerably. This is before considering Jonathan Holder, who had a 3.18 ERA (2.98 FIP) with 8+ K/9 and only 2 BB/9 (good enough for a 1 win season as a reliever) last year. The depth of the bullpen itself is a strength: while performance can fluctuate wildly, the fact that there are so many top-shelf arms offers a layer of protection that most teams simply don’t have. (Any one of these arms, with possibly Holder excluded, would be the best arm in Boston’s Kimbrel-less bullpen, for instance.) That depth may even free up Aaron Boone to use Green for multiple innings per outing (which he prefers) and takes a significant weight off of the shoulders of younger options like Stephen Tarpley, who may well get an extended look in 2019 after an impressive showing in September.

We saw the power of a dominant bullpen in October. The relief corps held Oakland down in the Wild Card Game, allowing the Yankee offense to create separation and strong performances in Games One and Four of the ALDS meant that the Yankees were able to remain within striking distance. The one poor outing, Game Three, was mostly brought about by the fact that Boone went to Lance Lynn for the most important at-bats of the year (sorry for bringing it up, but I won’t ever get over this one).

A dominant bullpen is becoming less and less of a luxury and more of a necessity for a team trying to win the World Series, and the Yankees have built the game’s best.

3. Outlook

There are no guarantees in baseball, and there are still question marks regarding the rotation. It feels an injury away from looking much less fearsome, but it’s worth remembering that the same is true for virtually every team in the league. That most of the rotation discussion is centered around the 6th starter option should tell you all you need to know about the status of the rotation going into 2019, and I don’t think there’s a fan or analyst out there worried about the Yankee bullpen.

Anything can happen, and pitching is unpredictable. But a full survey of the entire pitching staff demonstrates that it is among baseball’s most talented and has been among the most effective in the league over the past two years. It only got more talented this winter, and that means the Yankees should once again be one of the hardest teams to square up in 2019.

Put Mike Mussina in the Hall of Fame

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Moooooose. (Nick Laham/Getty)

Aside from a few scattered trade rumors, new comments from Hal Steinbrenner and the usual free agent speculation, it’s a been a quiet week in Yankeeland—exactly what we’d expect at this time in the offseason. That relative tranquility means it as good a time as ever to revive the annual argument that former Yankee Mike Mussina belongs in the Hall of Fame.

Mussina was an excellent Yankee, sporting a 3.88 ERA (114 ERA+) across 1,553 innings and eight seasons. He was a 5 win pitcher in four of those eight seasons. He is one of the best pitchers to don the pinstripes in recent history and is among the very best free agent signings the Yankees have ever made—a fact that would come up more were his tenure, like Jason Giambi’s, not sandwiched in between championships. Also like Giambi, he played a pivotal role in keeping the Yankees alive in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS and paved the way for Aaron Boone’s heroism.

Mussina will enter 2019 in his 6th year as a potential Hall of Fame inductee with the odds in his favor: players need to be named on 75 percent of the ballots and Mussina’s share has grown steadily each year he’s been eligible. He came closest last year when he was named on 268 ballots (63.5 percent of the vote) and if you scan this year’s cast, it becomes clear that many of his SP peers have candidacies riddled with controversy over either steroids or more grotesque reasons.

In other words, Mussina has a good chance to finally be enshrined in 2019.

His candidacy is a bit of a strange one because his numbers and accolades don’t immediately stand out: he never won a Cy Young or World Series, never led the league in strikeouts and only once led the league in ERA and wins (in separate years, nonetheless). Moreover, he was never truly the best pitcher in a league he shared with Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson. But a deeper dive does reveal that Moose is indeed deserving of Cooperstown.

Mussina was a consistently excellent pitcher for 18 seasons, pitched entirely in the steroid-era AL East, compiling 270 wins, 2,813 strikeouts, a 3.68 ERA (123 ERA+) and 83 career WAR. The latter number ranks higher than Nolan Ryan, Tom Glavine and Curt Schilling, for what it is worth. He was just shy of reaching the 300-win, 3,000 strikeout club, but he retired after a 20-win 2008 season.

In addition to his trademark knuckle-curve and competitive spirit, Mussina boasted a deep arsenal—including a 4 seam fastball, cutter, changeup and splitter—that he could locate with ease, walking only 5.4 percent of the 14,593 batters he faced (2 per 9 innings pitched). He struck out nearly 20 percent of those batters and conceded less than one home run per 9 innings pitched in the heart of the steroid era. His repertoire was unique and it was filthy, the engine beneath a long and dominant career as a pitcher in the most offense-heavy era in league history.

There is something to be said for consistent excellence, and for a 12-season stretch from 1992-2003, that’s exactly what he was. Mussina averaged 215 IP a year with a 3.55 ERA (128 ERA+) over that stretch. For good measure, he sprinkled in remarkably similar seasons to that standard in both 2006 and 2008, rounding out a career worthy of Cooperstown by finally winning 20 games in a season at age 39 in his final season.

Baseball-Reference’s Hall of Fame Scores highlight the disconnect between the fact that Moose was never the league’s best pitcher but was consistently excellent and among the best. The Black Ink score assigns a score for each category in which a player led the league in a particular year. The average Hall of Famer has a score of 40; Mussina 15. But its Gray Ink score, which does the same for each category in which a player was among the top 10 in a particular year, is much more favorable: Moose scores a 250 while the average Hall of Famer scores 185. Jay Jaffe’s JAWs method, another Baseball-Reference tool, ranks him 29th all-time among starters.

In other words, Mussina was always among the best but never the best himself. Falling just short, unfortunately, was a trait that plagued his entire career. Dominant postseasons with the Orioles went to waste, as they did with the Yankees—Mussina started Game 5 of the 2001 World Series to help give the Yankees a 3-2 lead and won Game 3 of the 2003 World Series to give the Yankees a 2-1 lead, but they didn’t win another game in either series. And he famously gave up a 9th inning, two out, two strike base hit to Carl Everett to blow a perfect game in Fenway Park.

Enshrining Mike Mussina in the Hall of Fame will do more than make those near misses and close calls sting (just a little) less. It would also ensure that he is permanently recognized for what he absolutely was: one of baseball’s very best pitchers.

The Yankees’ Surprisingly Good Pitching

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The Yankees will need to target pitching this offseason if they’d like to win the World Series next year. JA Happ, CC Sabathia, David Robertson and Zach Britton are all free agents and Sonny Gray will almost certainly be traded, leaving the Yankees with significant question marks in their starting rotation and even in their otherwise vaunted bullpen. The good news is that the Yankees have deployed one of baseball’s finest pitching corps over the past two seasons – and there is every reason to believe the same will be true in 2019.

It often feels like conventional wisdom that the Yankees’ one significant shortcoming is its pitching, particularly its starters. And when you look at the team’s major competitors since the beginning of 2017 – Cleveland, Boston and Houston – and compare their rotations, it is easy to see why. But the reality is that the Yankees have been just about as good as those teams at preventing runs over that stretch.

The staff was 7th in baseball in bWAR (21.8) in 2018, ranking only behind Boston, Houston and Cleveland in the American League. They were even better when ranked by Fangraphs, placing second to Houston by fWAR (26.6). The same was true in 2017. The Yankees ranked fourth in baseball and second in the AL in bWAR (23.6) and second overall by fWAR (24.8).

The peripherals also suggest an effective group since the beginning of 2017. In the American League, the Yanks rank 2nd in strikeout percentage, 6th in walk percentage, 5th in home runs percentage and sport the 4th best ERA. The relief corps has been nearly unhittable and while the rotation has not been quite that good, the Yankees have been among the hardest teams to hit in the league.

That is not to say that the team should be complacent – Boston, Houston and Cleveland have been consistently better. If the Yankees want to take the next step, they will need to continue to upgrade their starting rotation and maintain its devastating bullpen.

There is no shortage of available arms to pursue. Yanks will be tied to names like Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton and – I cannot believe I am saying this – Nathan Eovaldi during the course of free agency as well as the more familiar CC Sabathia and JA Happ. Others, potentially now even an ace like Corey Kluber, will come up as potential trade targets. Bullpen names like Adam Ottavino, Andrew Miller, Craig Kimbrel supplement former Yanks Robertson and Britton.

My best guess is that the Yankees add Corbin and bring back both Happ and Sabathia for a starting five of Severino/Corbin/Tanaka/Happ/CC and re-sign Robertson. Barring a trade, I consider adding Corbin to be the Yankees top priority this offseason and will likely be disappointed if the team doesn’t add him, as the 29-year-old represents a major upgrade.

But whatever pieces the Yankees choose to complete the puzzle is beside the point: the Yankees and their front office deserve our full confidence. The numbers clearly demonstrate that the team has found consistent ways to deploy a dominating bullpen with an above-average starting staff and as long as ownership provides the necessary resources, we should all expect Brian Cashman to assemble one of baseball’s best pitching staffs once again in 2019.

Saturday Links: Severino, Corbin, Kikuchi, Stanton

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(Getty)

This is one of my least favorite times of the year. The Yankees have been eliminated but other teams are still playing baseball. Sucks. Anyway, here are some notes to check out.

Yankees believe Severino was tipping pitches

According to Jon Heyman, several people with the Yankees believe Luis Severino was tipping his pitches in Game Three of the ALDS earlier this week. “The Red Sox had his pitches,” said one Yankees official. Heyman adds the Yankees heard “chatter” from Red Sox people about Severino tipping his pitches, presumably after the series. Ben Harris (subs. req’d) found evidence of the pitch-tipping. With a runner on second, Severino would pause to look at third base when throwing a fastball, even when there was no runner at third base to check. Huh.

There has been on-and-off speculation about Severino tipping his pitches for weeks now. Basically the entire second half. I usually shrug at this stuff because it seems every time a good pitcher struggles, the first explanation is “he must be tipping his pitches.” It’s possible Severino was tipping! I mean, Harris found evidence of it. That said, tipping pitches doesn’t explain the decline in velocity, the crummy command, and the sudden lack of bite on his slider. Tipping pitches would be the best possible outcome here. That is an easy fix, theoretically. It seems to me something else was going on though.

Yankees expected to pursue Corbin

We can file this under no duh: The Yankees are expected to pursue free agent lefty Patrick Corbin this offseason, reports Heyman. They’ve been after him for a while — the Yankees tried to get him at the Winter Meetings last year — and Corbin is a native (upstate) New Yorker who has been pretty open about wanting to play for the Yankees. This isn’t the first time we’ve heard the Yankees like Corbin and it won’t be the last.

Corbin, 29, just wrapped up his best season in the big leagues. He threw 200 innings on the nose with a 3.15 ERA (2.47 FIP) and excellent strikeout (30.8%), walk (6.0%), and ground ball (48.5%) rates. His home run rate dropped from 1.30 HR/9 (16.6 HR/FB%) from 2016-17 to 0.68 HR/9 (11.1 HR/FB%) in 2019. Also, weirdly enough, Corbin was second in MLB in hard contact allowed. That’s generally a bad thing. We’re going to look at Corbin more in-depth at some point for sure. I think 2018 was likely his career year. I also think that he’s very good, that he’s the best starting pitcher on the free agent market, and that he would unquestionably make the Yankees better.

Kikuchi will be posted


The Seibu Lions in Japan will indeed post southpaw Yusei Kikuchi this offseason, report Sankei Sports and Sports Hochi. Kikuchi has not been posted yet. He can’t be posted until after the World Series. Technically, he can only be posted between November 1st and December 5th. Once he’s posted, he gets a 30-day window to negotiate with any and all MLB teams, and the signing team pays Seibu a release fee. Here’s the new release fee system:

  • Contract worth $25M or less: 20% of total guarantee
  • Contract worth $25M and $50M: $5M plus 17.5% of amount over $25M
  • Contract worth $50M: $9.375M plus 15% of amount over $50M

The Yankees have reportedly been scouting Kikuchi. The 27-year-old threw 163.2 innings with a 3.08 ERA and a 23.4% strikeout rate this past season, and that’s in a league with an 18.9% average strikeout rate. (The MLB strikeout rate was 22.3% in 2018.) Kikuchi has a history of arm problems and he’s not considered a potential ace on par with Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka, and Shohei Ohtani when they were posted. He is quite good though, and he is only 27, and the Yankees need starters. The Kikuchi situation will be something to watch this offseason.

Stanton among finalists for Hank Aaron Award

Earlier this month MLB announced each team’s finalist for the 2018 Hank Aaron Award, which is given annually the top hitter in each league. Giancarlo Stanton is the Yankees’ finalist. Here are all 30 finalists. The winner will be announced during the World Series and is selected through a combination of fan and media voting. (The fan voting closed already. Sorry I didn’t pass along the link sooner.)

The Hank Aaron Award was introduced in 1999 and so far only two Yankees have won it: Derek Jeter (2006, 2009) and Alex Rodriguez (2007). Would’ve have guessed Jeter won it twice and A-Rod once, but here we are. Stanton won the Hank Aaron Award in 2014 and 2017 with the Marlins. The Hank Aaron Award tends to favor old school stats like hits and runs and batted in. My guess is J.D. Martinez or Mike Trout will win it in the American League.

With the season on the line, the bullpen has to be ready at the first sign of trouble behind CC Sabathia in Game Four

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(Getty)

Last night, thanks to an all-around disaster, the Yankees were pushed to the brink of elimination by the Red Sox. It was the most lopsided postseason loss in team history and a truly embarrassing thrashing. The good news is tonight’s game will start 0-0. Nothing anyone can do now other than turn the page and focus on Game Four tonight.

CC Sabathia will start tonight with the season on the line and it’ll be his third elimination game start since last season. ALDS Game Five went well last year. ALCS Game Seven not so much. The Yankees trust Sabathia implicitly and, if nothing else, you know he’s not going to get overwhelmed by the moment. If he pitches poorly, it’ll be because he doesn’t execute, not because he gets spooked.

“We feel like CC physically is in a good place right now coming off a really good start at the end of the year,” said Aaron Boone yesterday. “I feel like his knee is in a good place and feel like he’s been pretty good when we’ve been able to give him that rest. So we feel like he’s kind of lined up and ready to go for tomorrow. We’ll feel good about giving him the ball.”

Sabathia, probably moreso than any other pitcher on the staff, performs better with extra rest. It’s good for his knee. He last started on September 27th, so he’ll be on eleven days rest tonight, and this season he had a 2.01 ERA (3.88 FIP) in eight starts with six or more days rest. Does that bode well for tonight? I hope so. Bottom line, as long as he gets his cutter in on righties, he’ll be okay.

Of course, Sabathia might not be long for Game Four even if he pitches well. He made 29 starts this season and in only 15 of them did he throw more than five innings. Furthermore, the Red Sox are really good, and Sabathia has a significant third time through the order penalty.

  • First Time: .248/.314/.340 (89 OPS+)
  • Second Time: .208/.294/.376 (84 OPS+)
  • Third Time: .328/.376/.547 (135 OPS+)

Boone and the Yankees should have a very short leash with Sabathia tonight. I mean, Boone should’ve had a short leash last night, but Sabathia’s leash has been short all season, and this is an elimination game. It’s an elimination game and the regular late-inning relievers other than Chad Green and Jonathan Holder are rested. The situation is dire.

“You could always get an all-hands-on-deck situation any one of these games that come up,” added Boone. “You don’t know what tonight brings as far as how many guys you use for how long. All those things kind of go in and factor when you’re making evaluations the next night about a pitcher.”

As poorly as Boone managed Game Three, he did show a quick-ish hook with J.A. Happ in Game One, yanking him after two batters reached in the third inning. And, in Game Two, he didn’t let Masahiro Tanaka go through the middle of the lineup a third time even though Tanaka had pitched well up to that point. Last night wasn’t indicative of Boone’s decision-making in the series overall.

With the season on the line tonight, Boone can not let Sabathia go through the lineup a third time unless the Yankees have a huge lead. That’s the only scenario in which it would be okay to try to steal outs with him and, frankly, the likelihood of the Yankees having a huge lead is small. Also, Boone has to read the game better. If Sabathia is getting outs but is being hit hard, he has to be ready to make a change sooner rather than later.

Much like the Wild Card Game and Sabathia’s starts last postseason, chances are the bullpen will get more outs than the starting pitcher tonight. That should’ve been in the case last night. (It was, but you know what I mean.) If Sabathia can get the Yankees through the lineup twice, great. But if things aren’t look great the first time through, the bullpen has to be ready to go, specifically the top relievers.