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Trends to Watch as James Paxton Makes His Yankee Debut

March 30, 2019 by Bobby Montano

When James Paxton takes the mound today for the Yankees’ second game of the season against the Orioles, he will do so as the marquee acquisition of the 2018 offseason. Paxton, who was acquired early in the offseason, almost became an afterthought following an often frustrating offseason despite his top-of-the-rotation talent. The reality, though, is that he is the biggest upgrade over the 2018 team: he boasts a 3.52 ERA (117 ERA+) from 2016-18 with excellent peripherals (10+ K/9, 2 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9) and overpowering stuff as a lefty.

The new Yankee has shown ace-like capability on the mound in Seattle; as both Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs and Zach Kram of The Ringer noted in November, Big Maple ranks near the top of the league in nearly every important statistical category on a per usage basis. The Yankees obviously expect more of the same from him, and perhaps even a bit more: despite his dominance, injuries have prevented Paxton from truly entering the ace conversation.

As Paxton prepares to make his Yankee debut, there are several areas on which every fan should keep their eye. Most all of them in some way are based on the tension between the Yanks’ anti-fastball approach and Paxton’s approach, and I’m really excited to see the dynamic play out. Let’s break this one down.

Fastball Usage

The Yankees have a clear anti-fastball pitching philosophy, preferring instead for their pitchers to increasingly rely on off-speed stuff with movement instead of an over-reliance on fastballs. We’ve covered this extensively at RAB, and it’s something for which the Yankees are generally known – Sonny Gray even complained about it in an interview with The Athletic (subs req’d) last month.

Last year’s mid-season acquisitions of J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn, two pitchers who use their fastball at a higher percentage than nearly anyone else, bucked the trend, but it was reasonable to wonder if that’s just because they were the best available options amid a title pursuit. But the offseason acquisition of Paxton means that the last three pitchers the Yankees have brought on board all love to throw their fastball. Here are the five pitchers who most relied on their fastball in the 2018 season:

Lance Lynn: 88.9%
James Paxton: 81.5%
David Price: 74.9%
Jon Lester: 74.8%
J.A. Happ: 73.3%

It will be really interesting to see how this dynamic plays out throughout 2019. As Mike noted in his reaction to the Paxton trade, the Yankees let both Happ and Lynn throw tons of fastballs after the deadline, so it’s no guarantee that they tinker with Paxton. Nevertheless, I suspect we’ll see Paxton rely more on his offspeed stuff than he ever did with Seattle. The Yanks have Paxton for at least the next two years and I don’t think they’re moving away from their anti-fastball approach: Lynn, Happ and Paxton have simply been the best available pitchers.

In any case, keep an eye out for Paxton’s fastball usage. As we’ll get into in the following sections, his fastball is a true weapon, and how he and the Yankees approach this year will be fascinating. It will offer an interesting insight into both the Yankees’ own internal philosophy, Paxton’s flexibility, and if he does make a change, whether it helps him take that next step to true acehood.

Aggressiveness

If they do make a change, it will also be interesting to see how relying more on offspeed pitches will impact Paxton’s approach – something that means a lot to him.

Paxton told The New York Times that while he isn’t big on advanced analytics, he has created a stat of his own to measure his success: the percentage of at-bats in which, after three pitches, the at-bat is already completed or Paxton leads with a 1-2 count. He calls it A3P – after three pitches – and it is a neat view into Paxton’s approach. He clearly values aggression and getting ahead in the counts, which might partially explain his reliance on the fastball.

There is a good reason for this, as controlling the count obviously gives the pitcher an advantage. Batters hit only .200/.235/.289 in 0-1 counts, .155/.194/.226 when it’s 1-2 counts and 127/.150/.183 in 0-2 counts against Paxton – and while every pitcher, obviously, will perform best in pitchers’ counts, Paxton becomes nearly unhittable even when just a strike ahead.

It sounds simple enough because it is. Aggression is something that every pitcher preaches – as do the Yankees themselves – but a year and a half of watching Sonny Gray tentatively approach hitters and nibble at the corners should prove that it’s not quite as easy as it sounds.

Relying more on off-speed stuff might draw out at-bats by putting Paxton behind in the count, or it might not matter at all. For today, at least, Paxton should have no problems: The Orioles are one of the league’s free-swinging teams and we should expect Paxton to attack their AAA lineup with confidence. Beyond his first start, though, how Paxton attacks the zone will be something to watch in 2019, and how effective he is at staying ahead will be indicative of his success.

Swing and Misses

Missing bats is the name of the game for pitchers: stop the batter from making contact and you’ve done your job. Paxton is one of the league’s best at missing bats, and that’s especially exciting given his status as a flame-throwing lefty. His stuff is simply nasty – especially the fastball we just talked about. Again, to the leaderboard, this time for whiffs-per-swing on fastballs:

Jacob deGrom: 17.3%
Justin Verlander: 15.8%
Max Scherzer: 15.4%
Gerrit Cole: 15.3%
James Paxton: 13.7%
MLB Average: 9.6%

That’s some elite company, and it alone suggests that Paxton has legitimate ace upside. Moreover, Paxton is one of only six pitchers in the last decade to log at least 150 innings as a lefty and strike out 30% or more of the batters he faced. Paxton, in addition to missing bats, limits walks, allowing only 7% (2 per 9 innings pitched) of the batters he’s faced in his career to take a free bag. Couple that with a career 25.7% (10+ per 9 innings) strikeout rate, and you’ve got yourself a pitcher who can be a real difference-maker atop the Yankee rotation.

Again, it will be fascinating to see how these trends play out in 2019, especially if the Yanks and Paxton tinker with his approach. In any event, Paxton is one of baseball’s elite talents when it comes to making batters miss, and it’s worth paying close attention to in 2019 – especially if he mixes in more offspeed stuff.

Fly Ball Percentage

Finally, Paxton has historically limited home runs, allowing less than one per 9 in his career. (When you look at it this way, Paxton makes everyone swing and miss, limits walks, and never gives up home runs. How is he not a bigger story?) He did, of course, call Safeco Field T-Mobile Park home for his career until now, and Seattle is a known pitcher-friendly park. Yankee Stadium is not that.

Derek wrote an insightful piece exploring Paxton’s home run spike in 2018 (it climbed to 1.29 per 9) that you should read, but I wanted to pull out a few of the more interesting bits: turns out Paxton gave up a lot more fly balls (41%) than he did in 2017 (32.7%), largely a function of elevating his fastball. That explains at least some of the increase in homers, but it’s also possible that 2017, where he was unhittable, was a fluke. Time will tell, as they say.

I think it’s fair to expect Paxton to surrender more home runs in New York than he did in Seattle overall, but there are ways to mitigate even the Yankee Stadium impact: Paxton can continue to miss bats and keep the ball on the ground. It’s also worth noting that if the Yankees turn him away from his fastball, that might mean reduced elevation and fewer home runs.

****

I have an extremely good feeling about the 2019 Yankees, and James Paxton is a big reason why. We always hear that the Yankees “need another pitcher,” even though that’s often not true, but the addition of Paxton is probably the Yankees most exciting starting pitching acquisition in some time. There is a lot to watch this year, especially related to Paxton’s fastball usage and how that impacts some of the key areas that have made him so effective. If he lives up to expectations or improves – and, if he’s healthy, I see no reason why he won’t remain one of the best in the game – James Paxton will play a big role in what has the potential to be a very big year in the Bronx.

The Depth Position Players [2019 Season Preview]

March 25, 2019 by Mike

As the MLB player portion of our 2019 Season Preview series winds down, it’s time to hit on the depth position players, the guys every team needs but doesn’t want to use. The third catcher, the sixth outfielder, the backup backup utility infielder. Players like that. Inevitably, a few of these deep depth guys find their way to the big leagues each season. It is part of baseball.

At perfect health, the Yankees have good depth options on the infield (Tyler Wade) and in the outfield (Clint Frazier). They’re not at perfect health though. Aaron Hicks is hurt and Frazier is ticketed for Triple-A to get regular at-bats after losing so much time to injury last year. Beyond them, this year’s cast of depth players includes the usual non-roster types, the incumbent third catcher, a late-spring addition, and a well-paid question market. Let’s preview the depth guys.

Jacoby Ellsbury

It is kinda weird to include the third highest paid Yankee with the depth position players, but that’s where Jacoby Ellsbury is with the Yankees now. He has not played since the 2017 ALCS — Ellsbury pinch-hit in Game One and pinch-ran in Game Four, and that was it that series — and various injuries sidelined him all last season. Most notably, Ellsbury had hip surgery in August, and he’s still rehabbing.

“It feels real speculatory of me to even go down that road,” said Aaron Boone to Kristie Ackert recently when asked when Ellsbury will be able to play again. “First things first. It does seem like he is improving and getting better and obviously he’s here now … Hopefully he just continues improving and at some point becomes an option for us.”

Ellsbury stayed home in Arizona for a few weeks before finally reporting to Spring Training last weekend to continue his rehab. He recently started running on flat ground and is doing very light baseball activities. Hitting off a tee, playing catch at short distances, things like that. Ellsbury is not in Spring Training mode. He’s still in rehab mode and is presumably weeks away from really ramping up his baseball work.

“It’s nice to be going, doing baseball activity. As far as a timeline of when I’ll be playing, we’re not sure yet,” said Ellsbury to Coley Harvey. “You want to be out there, for sure. That’s why I put in the time, put in the work. You want to be out there, you want to contribute, you want to be part of the team. And the best way for me to do that right now is just put the work in in the gym, and the training room, the batting cage and that sort of thing. If I do that, we can get back on the field quicker.”

In addition to not playing in over a year, Ellsbury was not a lineup regular the last time he did play, and he is a 35-year-old speed guy coming off major hip surgery. You’d expect him to slow down and his skills to diminish at that age anyway. Add in the surgery and it is basically impossible to know what to expect this season, assuming Ellsbury makes it back on to the field at some point. That’s not a given.

The Yankees reportedly have insurance on Ellsbury’s contract and his current status indicates he’ll spend at least a few weeks on the injured list. They’ll collect insurance while he rehabs, monitor his progress, then make a decision about his future when he’s ready to play in a big league game. It could be they Yankees will need Ellsbury like they needed him last August, when Shane Robinson and Neil Walker were playing right field.

There’s also a non-zero chance the Yankees will have no room for Ellsbury, and release him the way they released Alex Rodriguez three years ago, or the way the Red Sox released Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, or the way the Dodgers released Carl Crawford. Teams are increasingly willing to release unproductive players with multiple years on their big contracts. Ellsbury could be next.

For now, Ellsbury is still rehabbing, and it’s unclear when he’ll return to game action. Between his rehab work and rehab games, it sounds like he’s weeks away from returning. It’s impossible to know what to expect from him but it is difficult to envision him fitting into the outfield picture when the Yankees are full healthy. There’s not much we can do other than wait and see. Ellsbury may’ve already played his final game in pinstripes. Or it could be they’ll need him in the lineup once he’s healthy.

“I believe when he’s healthy he’ll be back and he’ll be able to show us what he is capable of doing,” said Brian Cashman to James Wagner. “I’ve been told by doctors that if that’s the case we’ll be able to see the player we used to see.”

Kyle Higashioka

Higashioka is an ideal third catcher. He really is. He has a minor league option remaining, so the Yankees can shuttle him in and out as necessary this year, and he already knows the pitching staff. Higashioka has been in the farm system since 2008, he’s been in big league camp every year since 2015, and he’s had multiple stints with the MLB team the last two years. He’s not some scrap heap pickup who has no history with the pitchers, you know?

Also, Higashioka can put a mistake in the seats, which is about all you could ask from the third string catcher offensively. Expecting a third catcher to hit for average and draw walks and hit for power isn’t realistic. If he could do even two of those things, he wouldn’t be a third catcher. He’d be starting or at least backing up somewhere, not riding the shuttle. Higashioka rates well defensively, he has some pop, and he’s optionable. What more could you want from the third guy on the catching depth chart?

The Yankees have a good third catcher situation right now, and, in a perfect world, we won’t see Higashioka until rosters expand in September. (The 28-man September roster limit kicks in next year.) A healthy Gary Sanchez and a healthy Austin Romine is the best thing for the Yankees. Chances are one of them will miss time though (catchers are known to get beat up), and when they do, the perfectly cromulent Higashioka will step in as backup. He’s fine.

OF Mike Tauchman

Can’t say I expected to write a Mike Tauchman (!?) season preview blurb this year, but here we are. The Yankees acquired Tauchman from the Rockies for lefty relief prospect Phil Diehl over the weekend, and Tauchman will be on the Opening Day roster as Aaron Hicks’ replacement. Tyler Wade, who seemed to have a roster spot locked up, had the rug pulled out from under him at the end of camp. Ouch.

“Excited to get a guy that we feel is pretty talented and can play multiple positions out in the outfield, a guy that does have options,” said Aaron Boone to Brendan Kuty following the trade. Tauchman has only a little big league time, hitting .153/.265/.203 (17 wRC+) in 69 plate appearances spread across multiple cups of coffee, but he did lose his glove over the wall while trying to rob a home run once, and that’s kinda funny.

Tauchman, 28, can play all three outfield positions and play them well enough, which is pretty important. The Yankees were short on upper level outfield depth — Clint Frazier, their only true depth outfielder on the 40-man roster, can’t (or shouldn’t) play center — plus he’s a left-handed hitter, which is something the big league lineup lacks. As far as fourth outfielders go, Tauchman fits the profile.

While not a true launch angle guy, Tauchman made some swing changes two years ago in an effort to unlock some power. “I cleaned up my mechanics in my lower half, and that enabled me to use more of my body weight. I felt like I was in a really good place going into the offseason, and I kept working … I was kind of settling for singles and just looking to get on. Now I’ve changed my approach,” he said to Patrick Saunders in June 2017. The numbers:

	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%	GB%
2016 in AAA	527	.286/.342/.373	92	1	14.6%	7.6%	57.5%
2017 in AAA	475	.331/.386/.555	139	16	15.4%	8.4%	46.7%
2018 in AAA	471	.323/.408/.571	153	20	14.9%	12.7%	43.5%

Going from one homer in 527 plate appearances one year to 16 homers in 475 plate appearances the next is really something, especially when it coincides with a mechanical change. Tauchman hit four more homers in four fewer plate appearances the following year, and look at those ground ball rates. Grounders going down, power numbers going up. It is the way of the world.

That all said, my dude has spent three straight season in Triple-A (with a few short MLB call-ups mixed in). You’d expect any player to improve his performance each time he repeats the level. Tauchman’s not special in that regard. It is difficult — if not impossible — to separate what is legitimate mechanics-related improvement and what is statistical noise stemming from a guy playing at the same minor league level year after year.

I know this much: Tauchman fills a need and the Yankees are really good at identifying talent in other organizations. Didi Gregorius and Aaron Hicks were post-hype prospects. Chad Green was an afterthought Double-A starter. Luke Voit was repeating Triple-A when the Yankees came calling. A 28-year-old outfielder who has never appeared on any prospect lists and was heading into his fourth Triple-A season hardly screams sleeper, but … maybe?

The Non-40-Man Roster Depth Players

You never want to see them, but sometimes they’re necessary. Shane Robinson was maybe eighth on the outfield depth going into Spring Training last year, yet he appeared in 25 big league games with the Yankees. Jace Peterson went from non-roster invitee in the spring to starting in left field in April. Ji-Man Choi, Mason Williams, and Pete Kozma all spent time with the Yankees in 2017. Injuries happen, and sometimes teams have to call up players they were hoping they wouldn’t have to call up. C‘est la vie.

The Yankees had three position players with MLB service time in camp as non-roster players this year: Ryan Lavarnway, Billy Burns, and Gio Urshela. Lavarnway is at best the fourth catcher behind Sanchez, Romine, and Higashioka, so if we see him in the Bronx this season, it will mean something really went wrong. I was surprised the Yankees signed Lavarnway because he doesn’t seem like their type (bad pitch-framer, etc.), but whatever. His best skill is power. Lavarnway is the deep catcher option.

Among these non-40-man roster depth guys, Burns likely has the best chance at seeing big league time this year. He is a true center fielder, and Aaron Hicks is already hurt, so a Brett Gardner injury could land Burns in the Bronx. Seriously. Gardner filling in for Hicks with Tauchman (or Tyler Wade) as the backup center fielder is a good short-term plan. In a long-term injury situation, the speedy Burns makes more sense as a reserve outfielder. He’s a speed and defense guy who is better at speeding and defensing than Robinson, basically.

Urshela is only 27 and he is a fantastic defender at third base. Offensively, he’ll punish a mistake, and that’s about it, which is fine. Should Miguel Andujar miss time with injury, I assume DJ LeMahieu would step in at third base. If Andujar and LeMahieu miss time, the Yankees still might go with Wade (or 40-man roster guy Thairo Estrada) over Urshela. Urshela’s a great Triple-A player and good MLB depth piece. It’ll take a few infield injuries to get him to the Bronx this summer. Given the way Spring Training went, we’ll probably see him at third base in two weeks.

The Very Necessary Depth Starters [2019 Season Preview]

March 25, 2019 by Steven Tydings

In the modern MLB, every team needs more than five starters. It’s just the nature of the game.

That especially applies to the 2019 Yankees. Luis Severino is on the shelf until May. CC Sabathia is expected back in mid-April, but he always has his mid-summer IL stint. Therefore, the Yankees are going to need one of their depth starters from the jump and another within a couple of weeks of the season starting.

So who do the Bombers have backing up their starting rotation?

Domingo German

Say hello to your No. 4 starter! That’s right, the pitcher who had a 5.57 ERA last season will be in the Opening Day rotation.

German had an extreme go of it in the rotation in 2018. In his first start, he no-hit Cleveland for six innings. He then gave up six runs in each of his next two starts with a total of six walks and three homers.

While he gave up plenty of home runs and had bouts of wildness, he also displayed flashes of brilliance. In a three-start stretch last June, he struck out 28 batters and walked two over 19 innings.

What won him the rotation spot this spring? German’s pure stuff is electrifying: He sits in the mid-90s with his fastball/sinker with a high-80s change and low-80s curve. His offspeed pitches had a whiff rate of 35.8 and 41.3 percent, respectively.

He struck out 22 and walked just two over 15 1/3 Grapefruit League innings. His 4.11 ERA doesn’t tell the whole story as he gave up five of his eight earned runs in his final spring start, when the Cardinals launched three homers against him.

What is his role for all of 2019? If the Yankees get all five of their main starters healthy, he’s likely ticketed for Triple-A, though there will be plenty of starts. Despite Gio Gonzalez in the system, German could very well get more than the 14 starts he had last season. If he does, the team will need more consistency from the 26-year-old pitcher.

What may help is the opener. For both German and the No. 5 starter, the Yankees may utilize Chad Green or Jonathan Holder as an opener. That’s especially important for German, who had an 8.36 ERA in first innings last year.

Luis Cessa

It feels like Cessa has been on the shuttle between Scranton and the Bronx for a half-decade, but that time will come to an end in 2019. The fourth-year pitcher is out of options and will be serving in the Opening Day bullpen.

While German had good underlying numbers this spring, Cessa had fantastic ones. He struck out 19, walked just two and gave up only 11 hits over 18 1/3 innings.

The 26-year-old righty lives in the mid-90s with the fastball like German but works in a healthy dose of sliders, turning to the pitch 41 percent of the time last year.

His role is more indeterminate than German. He’ll be the long reliever to begin the year, yet his spring performance may make him the favorite to take the No. 5 starter role when the turn first pops up. Unlike German, he won’t be going to Scranton anytime soon and his lack of options may mean this is it for him in pinstripes.

As with any pitcher, working in shorter outings out of the bullpen could unlock a new level of performance for Cessa. He’s done a better job of attacking the zone this spring, which could help his fastball play up in relief action.

Jonathan Loaisiga

Of the Yankees’ depth starting options, Loaisiga has the best pure stuff. His fastball averages 96 mph with a high-80s changeup and low-80s slider/curve. The whiff rate on his slider/curve was well above 30 percent. The spin rate on his curve is in the 86th percentile and his fastball velocity in the 89th. He’s got all the talent to be a contributing major leaguer.

But his health and control tell a different story. He’s a regular on the injured list, as one might expect from a hard-throwing righty under six-feet tall. Meanwhile, despite a strikeout rate above 30 percent last year, he also walked 11.1 percent of batters. His underlying numbers were still above-average, but he had a 5.11 ERA in his short MLB stint.

This season, he’ll be up in the majors for game No. 6 i.e. when Sabathia’s suspension is up. His role is anybody’s guess. Moreso than the previous two entries to this list, he may be ticketed for the bullpen long term and his stuff makes you believe he could be quite dominant once there. His chance to start in the Bronx is slim, even if he grabs the No. 5 spot in mid-April.

Chance Adams

In the next tier, there’s Adams. Added to the 40-man roster for a spot start last August, he didn’t impress in limited action. He’s in his third year repeating Triple-A after his performance took a turn for the worse in 2018.

This may be familiar by now, but he’s a two-pitch pitcher (fastball-slider) who gets strikeouts but can’t seem to find the plate often enough for sustained success. He’s walked more than three per nine the last few years with the walk rate going up.

Therefore, this is a big season. He can’t stall out in Triple-A and expect to a have a safe 40-man spot a year from now. His optionability makes him a potential up-and-down arm at times with spot starts likely going elsewhere. He needs to turn things around in Scranton before he sees the Bronx for an extended period.

Who else?

Beyond those four, the team still has some starting depth. Gonzalez’s MiLB deal has an out on April 20 and struggles from German or Cessa could open the door for the established veteran.

After Gonzalez, it’s anybody’s guess. David Hale and Drew Hutchison, both ticketed for Triple-A, each saw some time in the Show last year, with Hale having multiple stints in pinstripes before going overseas. They’re veteran depth arms.

As for prospects, Michael King lost out on Spring Training with an arm injury. Domingo Acevedo didn’t get a look in big league camp and will be repeating Double-A Trenton, though he’s on the 40-man roster. If the Yankees run through the above options and are looking for more, something has seriously gone wrong.

The short but necessary bench [2019 Season Preview]

March 22, 2019 by Derek Albin

In today’s day and age, the bench on an American League team just isn’t very important. What traditionally hindered bench usefulness in the junior circuit was the advent of the designated hitter, but the more recent emphasis on the bullpen has become a factor too. Over the last decade or so, we’ve gone from teams typically fielding eleven pitchers to now including up to a baker’s dozen. It’s pretty clear the Yankees will carry thirteen pitchers, meaning that there are only three bench jobs to go around. One obviously needs to go to a reserve catcher, while the other two spots are a tad more flexible.

The venerable backup catcher

It seems like people either love or loathe Austin Romine. Many of those in the former category prefer him to Gary Sanchez because they’re irrational. Those who don’t like Romine have been hoping for a different backup for years, even though he’s perfectly fine in his role. Sure, it would be nice to have a better hitter behind Sanchez, but that would be a luxury, not a necessity.

Romine had his best offensive season last year, setting career highs across the board. His first half was particularly strong (122 wRC+), but he reverted back to his usual self to finish the year. It would be dandy if he’s anything remotely near his first half performance this year. That said, his historical performance would also be tolerable. It only becomes untenable if Sanchez needs to miss significant time.

The 30 year-old backstop shines in areas that casual observers can’t easily glean. Advanced metrics peg him as an above average defender, which also includes solid pitch framing. It seems like he has a good rapport with the coaching staff and pitchers, too. Those things are valuable even if they’re not as easy to read as a batter’s triple-slash. Hence the Yankees sticking with him as a reserve the past few years.

Understandably, the projections are underwhelming. PECOTA (83 DRC+), ZiPS (77 wRC+), and Steamer (76 wRC+) all foresee a poor offensive output. But if you keep in mind that the typical catcher posted a 84 wRC+ last season, it’s really not so bad. Once you layer on Romine’s value as a receiver and his bond with the pitchers, it’s clear that he makes for a respectable backup.

The hopeful super-utility player

2019 will be Tyler Wade’s second chance to secure a roster spot in the big leagues. After making the opening day roster last season, he faltered. His -25 wRC+ last April got him demoted to Triple-A for most of the season, before returning for a July cameo and September call ups. Wade still has options, so this year isn’t necessarily a make or break season, but there’s going to be some pressure on him to show he can at least be a tolerable bat in the majors.

It’s one thing to be speedy and have a solid glove, which are Wade’s calling cards. But no matter how good anyone is with those skills, they won’t be rostered for long if they post a .161/.218/.250 batting line (those are Wade’s career marks). The challenge for Wade will be making the most of sporadic plate appearances. With guys like DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres having versatility in the infield, Wade probably won’t get too many starts. Wade has been working out in the outfield for a couple of years now, including some time in center this spring because of Aaron Hicks’s injury, but again, he’s low on the depth chart to play frequently out there.

Perhaps Wade starts once a week, but most of his time will come as a pinch runner or defensive replacement. Thanks to his versatility, Aaron Boone can be pretty aggressive with Wade in high leverage situations. He could pinch run for just about anyone and have a spot in the field in the next half inning. Or, he could substitute defensively for either Miguel Andujar or Luke Voit/Greg Bird late in games. That would allow LeMahieu to take the corner infield spot while Wade slides to second.

This spring, Wade has a .907 OPS in Grapefruit League play. Not that spring training stats are meaningful or predictive, but I’d rather see that than a lackluster March performance. There’s no way he’ll hit that well in the regular season, but if he can be Romine-like (think 75 – 80 wRC+), he’d be just fine. He may not get more than 150 plate appearances all season, which is difficult for someone who’s used to playing daily in the minors. It’s a learning experience to become a solid role player, but that’s what Wade will have to prove. Fortunately for him, the team’s offense is so good that his bat won’t necessarily be needed. He just can’t be equivalent to a pitcher at the dish.

The likely to change 25th man

Injuries have clouded who will take the final bench spot. It could be Greg Bird, though we already previewed him. Maybe it’ll be Jacoby Ellsbury, but certainly not immediately. Maybe a non-roster invitee will sneak on to start the year. What we do know for sure is that it’ll be a fluid situation depending on who’s healthy. Clint Frazier, who we’ve yet to preview, will probably spend some time filling in on the bench, especially if Hicks’s back woes linger or Brett Gardner struggles.

Frazier is probably bound for Scranton once spring training ends. He’s had a rough go of it in game action this month, but that’s not surprising for someone who missed significant time last season. Some time in the minors will allow him to get back up to speed. The most important thing is that he’s free and clear of the concussion problems that plagued him last season. As he shakes the rust off, 2019 will be a chance for him to carve out a role with the Yankees.

If the 24 year-old outfielder hits anything like he did in limited time with Scranton last year (170 wRC+ in 216 plate appearances), the Yankees won’t be able to keep him down for long. There’s a balance that the club must strike when they decide promote him. Riding the pine in the majors would be wasteful. However, he can’t just usurp playing time without an opening.

Most projections have Frazier as a slightly above average big league hitter already (i.e. ZiPS and Steamer), though the one pessimistic outlier is PECOTA (89 DRC+). I’m on the optimistic side, personally. I expect Frazier to carve out some sort of hybrid bench/starter role by the season’s end.

An updated look at the Yankees’ projected 2019 Opening Day roster as the injuries continue to mount

March 21, 2019 by Mike

One week from today the Yankees will open the 2019 regular season at home against the Orioles. Masahiro Tanaka will be on the mound that day, not Luis Severino, because Severino suffered a shoulder injury earlier this month. That has been the story of Spring Training thus far. Injury after injury after injury.

The Yankees came into Spring Training with a 25-man roster that was fairly set. The last two bullpen spots and the final bench spot were up for grabs, and even then it was kinda easy to see who would get those spots. Now? Now injuries have created a few openings, openings the Yankees are still working to address. They have a week to figure it out.

So, with Yankees far from full strength going into the regular season, let’s take an updated look at the current state of the projected Opening Day roster. At this point, some Opening Day roster spots are being awarded almost by default.

Injured List (8)

Might as well start here. We know with certainty eight players — eight! — will be unavailable at the start of the regular season due to injury. Several of these injuries were known coming into Spring Training. Others popped up in recent weeks. These eight players combined for +18.4 WAR last year:

Dellin Betances (shoulder)
Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery)
Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery)
Ben Heller (Tommy John Surgery)
Aaron Hicks (back)
Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery)
CC Sabathia (knee, heart)
Luis Severino (shoulder)

The Yankees have not yet put these players on the injured list because they can’t. The 10-day IL doesn’t open until Monday. The 60-day IL has been open for a few weeks now, but the Yankees haven’t needed a 40-man roster spot yet, so there’s no reason to 60-day IL anyone. Montgomery and Gregorius figure to be the first two to go on the 60-day IL when 40-man space is needed.

It sounds like Hicks will be back a week into the regular season. Sabathia is expected back in mid-April and Severino in early-May. Everyone else is a little up in the air at this point, though Betances isn’t expected to be out too long. Ellsbury, Heller, Gregorius, and Montgomery are longer term injuries. We won’t see them for a while.

The Roster Locks (21)

After the injured dudes, the next logical place to go is the roster locks. I count 21 players who will assuredly be on the the Opening Day roster. There are no questions about these guys:

Position Players (11): Miguel Andujar, Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Troy Tulowitzki, Luke Voit, Tyler Wade
Pitchers (10): Zack Britton, Luis Cessa, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, J.A. Happ, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle, Masahiro Tanaka, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton

I am comfortable calling Cessa, Kahnle, and Wade roster locks at this point. Cessa and Kahnle are both out of minor league options and they came into the spring as Opening Day roster favorites, and they’ve done nothing to pitch their way off the roster. Cessa in particular has been lights out. Add in the pitching injuries and yeah, Cessa and Kahnle will be on the roster.

On more than one occasion this spring Aaron Boone has indicated Wade’s versatility gives him a leg up on a bench spot. Add in the Yankees playing him in center field as soon as it became clear Hicks would not be ready for Opening Day, and we’ve got two pretty good signs Wade has made the roster, assuming yesterday’s hip tightness truly is nothing (fingers crossed). He’s the de facto fourth outfielder until Hicks returns, and, as an added bonus, he can play the infield as well. Wade’s a lock.

The Near Lock (1)

Assuming the Yankees again go with the eight-man bullpen/three-man bench roster construction, they have one more position player spot to fill. Realistically, there are three candidates for that roster spot: Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, and non-roster invitee Billy Burns. I’d rank their chances of making the Opening Day roster like so:

Greg Bird
(huge gap)
Billy Burns
(tiny gap)
Clint Frazier

Frazier has not had a good spring (.140/.220/.233) and Boone has said he needs regular at-bats after missing so much time last season. The Yankees could give him those at-bats at the big league level given the Hicks injury, but it seems unlikely given his Grapefruit League showing. I have Burns ever so slightly ahead of Frazier because I think the Yankees are more willing to let Burns sit on the bench as the fourth outfielder than Frazier. Burns on the bench with Frazier getting regular at-bats in Triple-A seem much more likely than vice versa.

Anyway, that is all moot because Bird is a damn near lock for the Opening Day roster thanks to the Hicks injury, as long as yesterday’s pitch to the elbow is nothing (again, fingers crossed). The Yankees love Bird and there are DH at-bats open now with Stanton set to play left field. Bird can take those at-bats. Another lefty bat in the lineup would be welcome, for sure. With Wade set to be the fourth outfielder, the Yankees can put both Bird and Voit in the lineup, and they sound excited about that scenario. Bird’s on the roster, I believe.

“I look at as we have two impact players,” Boone said to Randy Miller earlier this week. “Bird has been a different guy this year. He’s been the guy we’ve been waiting on. He looks that part right now (with) his at-bats. But Luke has come in and picked up where he left off last year. Both guys are controlling the strike zone. Both guys are impacting the ball. Both guys have done everything we could have hoped for. So now moving forward, we haven’t necessarily revealed anything, but now there’s a scenario where both of them can certainly factor in on a regular basis for at least early in the season.”

The Gio vs. German Spot (1)

I am working under the assumption Sabathia will serve his five-game suspension on Opening Day. That makes the most sense. The Yankees could get the suspension out of the way early, then use Sabathia’s injured list stint to recall a recently optioned player. I thought Domingo German would be that recently optioned player before the Betances injury. I’m not so sure now.

With Betances hurt and Cessa needed in the rotation right out of the gate, the Yankees are a little shorthanded in the bullpen, and carrying German on the Opening Day roster as a long man seems likely to me. If he’s needed in long relief at some point during Sabathia’s suspension, the Yankees will use him and call up someone else (Jonathan Loaisiga?) to be the interim fifth starter. If he’s not needed in long relief, he then becomes the fifth starter.

Loaisiga’s hasn’t had a good spring (11 runs in 12 innings) and pitching coach Larry Rothschild recently said it’s big league rotation or Triple-A for Johnny Lasagna. They’re going to develop him as a starter and not use him out of the bullpen even though I think a bullpen role shouldn’t be ruled out. Loaisiga has a long and scary injury history, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to get whatever you can out of him before he gets hurt again. Harsh, but that’s the business.

With Loaisiga pitching himself out of the rotation conversation, there are three potential candidates to wrestle that fifth starter/swingman spot from German: David Hale, Drew Hutchison, and the recently signed Gio Gonzalez. Nestor Cortes isn’t a serious Opening Day roster candidate and Chance Adams has already been sent to minor league camp. That doesn’t mean the Yankees can’t carry Adams on the Opening Day roster. It just seems unlikely.

Hale and Hutchison have been fine this spring. They haven’t been mentioned as Opening Day roster candidates at all and I think — and I think the Yankees think — German is flat out better than both of them. Hale and Hutchison are break glass in case of emergency guys. You call them up when you have no one else. Even with all the pitching injuries, the Yankees are thankfully not at that point yet. They’re out, so it’s German vs. Gio.

Gonzalez reported to camp two days ago and he’s thrown upwards of 80 pitches on his own, so his arm is stretched out. “I don’t think I am far away at all,” he said to Kristie Ackert. “I have been staying with my routine. In my last (simulated game), I pitched Monday, 88 pitches, five innings. I am trying to keep up with baseball, at least I am doing my routine and sticking to my guns. I’ll be ready to go. Hopefully I’ll be in a game pretty soon.”

Brian Cashman hedged a bit, saying the Yankees are looking forward to getting a look at Gonzalez up close the next few weeks. He has an April 20th opt-out date and it sounds like the Yankees want to take their time evaluating him. If push comes to shove and injuries force their hand, sure, they’ll carry Gio on Opening Day. It does not sound like that’s the plan. It sounds like Gonzalez is Plan B with German being Plan A.

Had he signed over the winter and reported to Spring Training with everyone else, this would definitely be Gonzalez’s roster spot. That’s not what happened though. He signed late and, even though he’s stretch out to 80 or so pitches, he’s probably not where he needs to be with his feel for his stuff or his command. That gives German the edge. I think he’s on the roster as a long reliever who moves into the fifth starter’s spot when the time comes.

The Final Pitching Spot (1)

Sabathia’s suspension means the Yankees have to play with a 24-man roster. A three-man bench equals 12 pitcher spots during the suspension, and we have ten locks plus German, leaving one open spot. Once Sabathia’s suspension ends and the Yankees go back to 13 pitches, either German slots in as the fifth starter and a reliever gets called up, or German remains in the bullpen and a starter gets called up. Point is, there’s one open pitching spot.

Sticking with players who remain in big league camp, the Yankees have ten candidates for that final pitching spot. Sure, they could also bring back someone who’s already been sent out (Adams?), but it does seem unlikely. The ten candidates:

On the 40-man roster (2): Jonathan Loaisiga, Stephen Tarpley
Not on the 40-man roster (8): Rex Brothers, Nestor Cortes, Danny Coulombe, Phil Diehl, Raynel Espinal, Gio Gonzalez, David Hale, Drew Hutchison

We’ve already ruled out Gonzalez, Hale, and Hutchison as serious Opening Day roster candidates earlier in this post. Also, Loaisiga is a big league rotation or bust guy, so, for our purposes, it’s bust. He’s in Triple-A. Brothers has eight walks in 5.1 innings this spring after walking 44 in 40.2 minor league innings last year. I think we can cross him off the list. Espinal had a visa issue and reported to camp late, and has thrown one (1) Grapefruit League inning. He falls into that “he won’t be fully ready for Opening Day” group, similar to Gio.

That leaves four candidates: Cortes, Coulombe, Diehl, and Tarpley. Pretty easy to see where this is going, right? It’ll be Tarpley. He’s already on the 40-man roster and he impressed the Yankees enough last September to get a spot on the ALDS roster. Also, Tarpley’s had a very nice spring, chucking ten scoreless innings. That won’t hurt his cause. Diehl’s been impressive at times this spring but he’s barely pitched above Single-A. Cortes? Coulombe? I have no reason to believe they are ahead of Tarpley in the bullpen pecking order. Tarpley it is.

The Projected Roster (24+1)

That is 24 active players plus one suspended Sabathia. Again, once the five-game suspension ends, Sabathia goes directly on the injured list and the Yankees call up another pitcher to get back to a normal three-man bench/eight-man bullpen arrangement. Injures have really stretched the Yankees thin already. Sheesh. Anyway, after all that, here’s the projected Opening Day roster:

Catchers	Infielders	Outfielders	Rotation	Bullpen
Gary Sanchez	1B Greg Bird	LF Giancarlo Stanton	Masahiro Tanaka	CL Aroldis Chapman
Austin Romine	1B Luke Voit	CF Brett Gardner	James Paxton	SU Zack Britton
	2B Gleyber Torres	RF Aaron Judge	J.A. Happ	SU Chad Green
	SS Troy Tulowitzki	UTIL Tyler Wade	Luis Cessa	SU Adam Ottavino
	3B Miguel Andujar			MR Jonathan Holder
	IF DJ LeMahieu			MR Tommy Kahnle
				MR Stephen Tarpley
				SWG Domingo German

That is 24 active players plus one suspended player (Sabathia) plus seven other players on the injured list (Betances, Ellsbury, Gregorius, Heller, Hicks, Montgomery, Severino). Once Sabathia’s suspension ends, he becomes the eighth (!) player on the injured list, and the Yankees get their 25th roster spot back. Presumably it goes to a pitcher seeing how they’ve rarely employed a seven-man bullpen the last two years or so.

Bird’s elbow could throw a wrench into the roster situation. If he’s unable to go Opening Day, the Yankees would have little choice but to carry Burns or Frazier as the extra outfielder, with LeMahieu moving into the everyday lineup (Andujar to DH?) and Wade taking over as the full-time backup infielder. Hopefully Bird’s elbow (and Wade’s hips) is a-okay and he’ll be fine come Opening Day.

The injuries have eliminated several position battles. With a healthy Severino, it’s German vs. Tarpley for one spot. With Hicks healthy, it’s Bird vs. Wade for one spot. The injuries answered some questions and everything kinda falls into place. I don’t think we can completely rule out Gio beating out German, though it would surprise me. It really seems like the Yankees want to get an extended look at Gonzalez in minor league games first.

Hopefully everyone stays healthy these next seven days and the Yankees can go into the regular season with that roster. That is almost certainly the best 24+1 unit they could put together right now. Once Sabathia goes on the injured list, the Yankees get the 25th roster spot back. Once Hicks returns, they’ll have to drop another position player. Worry about that later though. Those are questions the Yankees will answer when the time comes and not a minute sooner.

A Full Year of a Healthier Zack Britton [2019 Season Preview]

March 21, 2019 by Mike

Going into last season, I don’t think anyone expected the Yankees to have to reinforce their bullpen at the trade deadline. There’s nothing wrong with adding to a strength though, plus Aroldis Chapman’s knee was aching and Tommy Kahnle had crashed hard, so the Yankees shipped three second tier pitching prospects to the Orioles to rent Zach Britton. It was the first Yanks-O’s trade since the Jaret Wright-Chris Britton deal. (They only trade with each other when Brittons are involved, apparently.)

Early control issues faded away and, by the end of the regular season, Britton looked a lot like the guy we saw in Baltimore all those years. The sinker was killing worms (77.8% grounders) and Britton even closed out some games when the knee sent Chapman to the disabled list for a few weeks. He quickly entered Aaron Boone’s Circle of Trust™ and the summer fling worked so well that it turned into a long-term relationship over the winter.

“We kept in contact immediately once free agency started,” Britton said during a conference call after re-signing with the Yankees. “The fact that I had been a closer and knew that I could do it at a high level, I felt I didn’t need to prove myself. I had some opportunities to close with other teams, but I didn’t feel like they were as close to winning as New York. I wanted to go back to a team that could win year in and year out.”

Being part of such a deep bullpen played a role in Britton’s decision — “They were one of the reasons I was trying to come back,” he said of his bullpen mates — and it didn’t hurt that Brian Cashman and Scott Boras were able to work out a creative (but increasingly popular) contract framework. The terms:

Two years and $26M guaranteed.
Two-year club option worth $27M.
If the Yankees decline the club option, Britton has a one-year player option at $13M.

Britton accepted a non-closing role, Zach became Zack, and the Yankees now have their best setup lefty reliever since … geez, I don’t even know. Mike Stanton? Boone Logan and Chasen Shreve had some moments, but yeah, it’s been a while since the Yankees had a non-closing lefty reliever with Britton’s ability and credentials. (Andrew Miller closed more than he set up with the Yankees). Let’s preview Britton’s first full season in pinstripes.

Is the old Britton ever coming back?

Zack Britton hasn’t been ZACK BRITTON in two years now. I don’t think we’re ever going to see 2016 Britton again, that guy was historically great, but the last two seasons Britton had a 3.00 ERA (3.83 FIP) in 78 innings. That’s still really good, obviously, but it is a far cry from the 1.38 ERA (2.40 FIP) he posted from 2014-16. The $13M annual salary indicates the Yankees expect him to be something closer to 2014-16 Britton than 2017-18 Britton.

The primary difference between 2014-16 Britton and 2017-18 Britton was health. A forearm strain sent him to the disabled list twice in 2017, and last winter he blew out his Achilles during an offseason workout, and was unable to return to the mound until late-May. And, when he did return, he didn’t have a proper Spring Training and was rushed. The O’s wanted him back as soon as possible so they could showcase him for trades.

Forearm problems are a common precursor to elbow trouble, so that’s worrisome, though it’s worth noting Britton’s forearm and elbow have given him no problems since 2017. The Achilles injury was a fluky offseason thing. That doesn’t mean it didn’t have a lasting impact though. Britton required surgery, and a few weeks ago he admitted he never felt right on the mound last season. His legs weren’t underneath him and his mechanics weren’t right.

“The surgeon told me I was completely healthy last year, but I just didn’t have the lower-body strength that I’m accustomed to, which made me throw from a different delivery and change my arm slot,” Britton said to Randy Miller. “The results were fine at the end of the year, but I knew that wasn’t me. I was just kind of getting by because my stuff was moving and I was getting away with some stuff. But I wasn’t who I wanted to be. This offseason, I got most of my leg strength back. My calf strength has come back.”

Statistically and velocity-wise, Britton certainly got better as the season went on last year. It’s worth embedding this rolling average sinker velocity and ground ball rate graph again:

That said, when a guy comes back from a major injury (and surgery) and says “I wasn’t who I wanted to be,” you can’t brush it off because the results were okay. Britton didn’t feel like himself last season. We all worry about arm injuries with pitchers, but leg injuries are no joke. The lower half is crucial mechanically and you need strong legs to generate power. Everything in baseball (hitting, throwing, etc.) starts from the ground up.

Britton was able to have a normal and healthy offseason this past winter, something he hasn’t been able to do in two years now. He was pretty good last year with limited command and his sinker not moving the way it usually moves. When his legs underneath him and a proper Spring Training, yeah, there is reason to believe Britton can back to being the guy he was prior to 2017. Or at least be better than he was the last two seasons.

At age 31, chances are Britton’s best years are behind him. The Orioles enjoyed them. That doesn’t mean Britton can not be highly effective going forward, especially now that he’s healthy. Last year’s uptick in velocity sure looks like a guy getting back to normal as he gets further away from the injury, and it seems his command has been there this spring. He looks more like September 2018 Britton than August 2018 Britton. That is a positive.

Britton vs. The Infield Defense

Objectively, the Yankees’ infield defense kinda stinks. We know all about Miguel Andujar’s deficiencies at third base — he’s looked kinda better this spring? hard to tell in limited looks — and neither Luke Voit nor Greg Bird will be confused for Mark Teixeira over at first base anytime soon. Gleyber Torres has very good defensive tools but has been error prone early in his career. Troy Tulowitzki? Who knows. He’s looked surprisingly nimble at shortstop this spring. Let’s see how he looks a few weeks into the season as the wear and tear accumulates.

Britton is an extreme ground ball pitcher. Even the injured and not quite himself version of Britton was generating ground ball rates north of 60% the last two years, and at his peak his ground ball rate was closer to 80%. The better the infield defense, the better you can expect Britton to be, because those ground balls are coming. The Yankees have three defensive options when Britton is on the mound.

Stay with the status quo. Leave whoever’s out there out there.
Go with a five-man infield. Aaron Boone has mentioned it this spring.
Go max defense with DJ LeMahieu and Tyler Wade replacing Andujar and Tulowitzki, respectively.

There doesn’t have to be one solution. There’s a time and a place for all three scenarios. Down a few runs? Then leave your best players in the game. Ground ball hitters coming up? The five-man infield wouldn’t be a bad idea. Unconventional? Sure, but not necessarily bad. Replacing Andujar and Tulowitzki with LeMahieu and Wade certainly makes sense when the Yankees have a lead and those two aren’t likely to get another at-bat.

Britton struck out 20.1% of the batters he faced last year, and if he can get back to being the 30% strikeout guy he was earlier in his career, it’ll mitigate some of the damage done by the porous infield defense. It’ll only help so much though. Britton relies heavily on his infield defense and there are likely to be times it’ll cost him given the team behind him, especially while Didi Gregorius is out. That’s just something the Yankees will have to live with. You take the good with the bad.

* * *

Dellin Betances will start the season on the injured list and my guess is Britton will be the primary eighth inning guy come Opening Day. Perhaps Aaron Boone will platoon Britton and Adam Ottavino — Britton faces the tough lefties in the seventh or eighth while Ottavino gets the tough righties — though the Yankees believe in defined bullpen roles. They had them with Joe Girardi and they had the with Boone last year. Britton is willing to pitch whenever and he showed last year he can pitch whenever. That buy-in shouldn’t be overlooked.

My preference would’ve been re-signing David Robertson over re-signing Britton, though what’s done is done, and it’s not like Britton is a slouch. Even when less than 100% physically last year, he was still pretty good. Now he’s not coming off forearm trouble and he’s not rehabbing from Achilles surgery. He’s healthy, he’s had a normal Spring Training, and he’s familiar with the team (coming over at midseason isn’t easy!). As long as the infield defense doesn’t completely betray him, Britton can still be a difference-maker out of the bullpen.

The Overqualified Sixth and Seventh Relievers [2019 Season Preview]

March 20, 2019 by Mike

On paper, the Yankees have a comically deep bullpen with three or four (or five?) relievers who would qualify as the best reliever on a not insignificant number of other teams. Things don’t always play out the way they look on paper, that’s just baseball, but the Yankees have clearly assembled an enviable collection of bullpen arms going in 2019.

New York’s bullpen is so stacked that Jonathan Holder is, at best, sixth on the reliever depth chart, and Tommy Kahnle isn’t even assured an Opening Day roster spot. I think it’s highly likely he’ll make the team, especially now that Dellin Betances is hurt, but the fact it is not completely set in stone is pretty bonkers. This guy was one of the top relievers in the game two years ago.

Assuming Kahnle makes the roster, he and Holder are behind Betances, Aroldis Chapman, Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino, and Chad Green in the bullpen pecking order (once Betances returns). That makes them overqualified sixth and seventh relievers. Fortunately there’s no such thing as too many good relievers. Let’s preview their 2019 seasons.

Jonathan Holder

In a bullpen loaded with big velocity, Holder is an outlier. His fastball averaged 93.0 mph last season and topped out at 95.4 mph. His max velocity was comfortably below Chapman’s (99.2 mph) and Betances’ (98.2 mph) average velocity. Holder is a kitchen sink guy who broke out last year after completely shelving his cutter and curveball, and leaning on his slider and changeup.

The end result was a 3.14 ERA (3.04 FIP) with an average-ish number of strikeouts (22.0%) and few walks (7.0%) or grounders (29.3%) in 66 innings. Holder almost certainly has some home run rate regression coming his way this year. Last year’s ground ball rate won’t usually produce a 0.55 HR/9 (4.2% HR/FB) rate when you play your home games in Yankee Stadium. Something has to give. Either more grounders or more homers are coming.

Based on the current bullpen layout, it sure seems like Holder will inherit Adam Warren’s old role as the super utility reliever. The jack of all trades, Swiss Army knife reliever. He’ll be asked to keep the game close when the Yankees are trailing, throw multiple innings on occasion, and fill in as a high-leverage guy when others aren’t available. That was Warren’s role and he was very, very good at it. Now Holder is the obvious heir apparent.

Holder and Warren are similar in that both have starter’s repertoires and resilient arms, allowing them to remain effective on back-to-back days and deep into the season. Holder doesn’t have a starter’s stamina — the Yankees tried him as a starter in the minors in 2015 and gave up on it after one year because his stuff backed up so much — but he won’t need it in relief. If he can go two innings at a time, maaaaybe three on occasion, that’s enough.

Another possibility: Holder as an opener. He started a game last September, though that was a traditional bullpen game and not an opener situation. Holder is opening today’s Grapefruit League game after Green opened yesterday’s game, so this is something the Yankees are considering, and Holder is apparently a candidate to open games. This is likely a better use of his skills than being the sixth option in the late innings, you know?

The Yankees clearly like Holder — they added him to the 40-man roster a year early so he could throw 8.1 low-leverage innings in September 2016 — and the way he overhauled his approach in the middle of last season shows he has the aptitude to make adjustments, which is an obvious plus. In any other year, I feel like we’d be awfully excited about Holder’s upcoming season. In this bullpen, he kinda gets lost in the shuffle.

Unfortunately for Holder, he has a minor league option remaining (two, actually) and is pretty much the team’s only reliever who can easily be sent down. I reckon he’ll experience an undeserved trip to Triple-A Scranton at some point this season in the name of roster flexibility. It certainly would not be the first time that’s happened. Such is life for a cheap, optionable reliever in the era of bullpen shuttles.

Holder is a reliever without a clearly defined role at the moment, though those things tend to sort themselves out, and having a guy like him as you sixth best reliever is a big luxury. The home run regression might be ugly — that potential trip to Scranton might not be so undeserved after all! — but Holder has the tools and the pitching know-how to be successful big leaguer. He may be far down the depth chart now. Given the way these things usually play out, the Yankees will undoubtedly need Holder to get some important outs this season.

Tommy Kahnle

Last season was a total mess for Kahnle. His velocity was down early, he spent a few weeks on the disabled list, and when he returned he intentionally gained weight in an effort to rediscover some velocity. When it was all said and done, Kahnle threw 23.1 big league innings with a 6.56 ERA (4.19 FIP) and 24.2 Triple-A innings with a 4.01 ERA (2.85 FIP). He walked 12.1% of all batters he faced. It was bad. Bad bad bad.

“I’m voiding last year. If I think about that I won’t be able to do anything now,” Kahnle said to Lindsey Adler (subs. req’d) recently. He reported to camp in noticeably better shape — Kahnle told Adler he’s given up the two coffees and five Red Bulls he used to drink every single day, which is kinda bonkers — and based on our limited looks during televised Grapefruit League games, he appears to be throwing much more free and easy, and with more velocity.

“Really exciting. That’s the best I’ve seen him throw since I’ve been here,” Aaron Boone said to Brendan Kuty after one of Kahnle’s early spring outings. “… He didn’t have to work to generate the velocity. I thought life in the zone was really good. He executed some changeups. He threw a good slider in there last night. But the way the ball is coming out for him, I know he really feels good about it and he should. That was exciting to see.”

Two years ago Kahnle threw 62.2 innings with a 2.59 ERA (1.83 FIP) and outstanding strikeout (37.5%) and walk (6.6%) rates. He wasn’t pretty good, he was great. Maybe getting Kahnle back to that level isn’t a realistic goal. How many relievers can do that year after year? What about Holder level production though? ERA and FIP in the low-3s with a few more strikeouts. Is that unreasonable? Maybe it is given how bad he looked last year.

Clearly, velocity matters a lot to Kahnle. Hitters were noticeably more comfortable in the box and with their swings when he was 94-95 mph rather than 98-99 mph. Kahnle has been mostly 95-96 mph on the television radar gun this spring, which comes with the caveat that it is the television gun, but it is encouraging to see bigger numbers already. Pitchers usually don’t reach their max velocity until a few weeks into the regular season, once the weather warms up.

What will Kahnle’s role be this season? Geez, hard to tell right now. Even with Betances out, there are at least three guys ahead of him on the setup depth chart (Britton, Green Ottavino) and my guess is Holder would get high-leverage work ahead of Kahnle until Kahnle shows he’s back to his 2017 self (or thereabouts) and trustworthy in important situations. I think things will be touch and go with Kahnle for the first few weeks of the season. A defined role may be a ways off.

It’s worth noting Kahnle, unlike Holder, is out of minor league options. He has to pass through waivers to go to the minors and I don’t see him clearing. He’s cheap ($1.387M this year) and under control through 2021, and he is only one season removed from the last time he was very effective. In a vacuum, wouldn’t you want the Yankees to claim a guy like that? The Yankees would sooner trade him given the likelihood of losing him for nothing on waivers.

Kahnle has thrown the ball well this spring and that was a prerequisite for making the Opening Day roster. Being out of options helps his case but only goes so far. Kahnle had to perform at least a little bit, and it’s encouraging that his velocity is up a bit and that he doesn’t have to put everything he has into each pitch to get to that velocity. I don’t know what Kahnle’s role will be this year, but I do know he’s an x-factor. Getting something close to 2017 Kahnle would make the bullpen that much deeper and that much more dangerous.