River Avenue Blues

The Yankees should follow the Blue Jays’ lead and give their minor leaguers a raise

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(Presswire)

Over the weekend Emily Waldon and Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) reported the Blue Jays are planning to give their minor leaguers a substantial raise this season, with John Lott (subs. req’d) saying the individual raises will fall between 40% and 56% depending on the player’s level. For what it’s worth, Jeff Passan hears MLB is open to sweeping quality of life improvements in the minors.

“It puts us right now up at the top of the scale in the industry,” said Blue Jays president of baseball operations Ben Cherington. “… We hope that it allows our players to have the freedom and comfort to make some good choices, whether it’s where to live, where to eat, etc. We just feel like it’s consistent with our values of trying to be a player-centered organization and give them every resource possible to be at their best.”

Last year MLB successfully lobbied Congress to pass the shamefully named “Save America’s Pastime Act,” which allows them to continue paying minor leaguers below minimum wage. MLB argues minor leaguers are seasonal employees (similar to extra cashiers around the holidays) and that it would be impossible to track hours. These are the minor league minimum salaries, via Waldon (subs. req’d):

  • Triple-A: $2,150 per month
  • Double-A: $1,700 per month
  • Single-A: $1,160 to $1,500 per month

Players do not get paid in Spring Training — Ted Berg recently wrote a great article on minor league catchers, who have huge spring workloads and don’t get paid — and they only get $25 or so per diem on the road during the season. A few years ago Ben Badler found that 40% of minor leaguers received no more than $10,000 as their amateur signing bonus. That’s a lot of minor leaguers barely making ends meet during the season.

Minor leaguers are exploited, clearly. Have been for a long time. They are not playing a game for a living. They are skilled workers in an industry that rakes in over $10 billion in annual revenues. Minor leaguers are appallingly underpaid. The MLBPA is no help either. They’ve sold minor leaguers out (i.e. draft and international bonus pools) because their priority is their union members.

The hope is other teams will follow the Blue Jays’ lead and increase their minor league pay. Hopefully Passan’s report means sweeping action is forthcoming. We’ll find out soon enough. Anyway, as the headline says, I think the Yankees should raise minor league salaries like Toronto and, honestly, it’s a shame they didn’t give out those raises first. Shouldn’t the game’s most iconic franchise be an industry leader in this regard?

I fully acknowledge I have no idea what the Yankees pay their minor leaguers. They pay upper level minor league free agents well. I know that much. I feel like, if they were at the top of the pay scale for lower level non-40-man roster guys, we’d have found out by now. The Yankees’ minor league facilities are very good — the minor league complex in Tampa was renovated recently and is state of the art — and that is an obvious plus. At the ballpark, they give their players the tools to develop and succeed.

Still, there’s no substitute for putting more money in someone’s pocket. More pay not only means better living arrangements and better meals (two things that could have a direct impact on a player’s development), it also makes you a more attractive destination for free agents and could help you retain players. The benefits are potentially enormous. This would be an investment in the players and in the future of the organization.

For now, the Blue Jays are doing a good thing and giving poorly paid minor leaguers a raise. With any luck, the rest of baseball will following along and minor leaguers can collectively get above the poverty line. The Yankees have great minor league facilities and they pay upper level minor league free agents well. Those guys, as well as big bonus signees, only represent a small percentage of players in the minors. Paying minor leaguers better helps everyone.

Three questions about Chad Green [2019 Season Preview]

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(Adam Hunger/Getty)

Within the Yankees’ bullpen, there’s a clear hierarchy. Aroldis Chapman is the closer, Dellin Betances is the fireman or eighth inning reliever depending on the day, while the combo of Zack Britton and Adam Ottavino are hilariously miscast in late-to-middle inning relief. That’s a comedy of weapons.

Oh yeah, and then there’s Chad Green.

After a lesser but still great 2018 to follow up his dominant 2017, Green can get forgotten as the middle relief ace without the big contract or All-Star accolades. The right-hander took a bit of a downturn last year, as could be expected after his wildly successful previous season, and there are a few questions.

So after the customary projections, let’s look into three questions about Green for the 2019 season.

Projections

  • 2018 production: 2.50 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 75 2/3 IP, 63 games, 11.18 K/9, 1.78 BB/9, 1.07 HR/9, 1.8 fWAR, 2.3 bWAR
  • 2019 ZiPS: 2.70 ERA, 2.78 FIP, 73 1/3 IP, 61 games, 11.17 K/9, 2.33 BB/9, 0.86 HR/9, 1.6 WAR
  • Steamer: 3.33 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 70 IP, 70 games, 11.29 K/9, 2.57 BB/9, 1.19 HR/9, 1.1 WAR
  • PECOTA: 3.21 ERA, 3.55 DRA, 64 IP, 60 games, 11.1 K/9, 3.13 BB/9, 1.14 HR/9, 1.2 WARP

While Steamer and PECOTA predict a further downturn in his results, they still have him as a one WAR reliever, which is tremendous for your fifth-most important asset in the bullpen. They’re all bullish on his ability to keep up his strikeout numbers despite them heading in the wrong direction last year. His walk rate, which improved to an elite level in 2018, has a wide range in these projections.

Furthermore, none of them see him as much more than a one-inning reliever, which is a question for later in the post. But first, let’s try to nail down Green’s repertoire.

Is the fastball enough?

Green has one of the best fastballs in baseball. His 96.1 mph average is in the 92nd percentile and his spin 2444 rpm is 91st percentile, both according to Statcast. His 40.7 percent strikeout rate in 2017 was third in baseball behind Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Janson. It dropped significantly in 2018 but was still 92nd percentile at 31.5 percent. Meanwhile, he consistently threw it for strikes with a 5.0 percent overall walk rate.

Green significantly increased his usage of his fastball in 2018 and it didn’t exactly pay off. In a variation of Domenic’s graph in the 2018 Season Review, here’s a look at how his fastball varied from year to year (stats from Statcast).

2017 2018
Total Fastballs 778 1083
Average Velocity 95.8 mph 96.1 mph
Average Spin Rate 2,484 rpm 2,444 rpm
Whiff Rate 39.8% 27.9%
Exit Velocity 89.8 mph 92.0 mph
BB Rate 7.4% 4.8%
AVG .109 .210
ISO .075 .126
wOBA .168 .253

As you can see, outside of a slight increase in velocity and decrease in walk rate, his numbers declined across the board. It’s worth noting that A. Those were still tremendous numbers outside of the exit velocity and B. His 2017 was absurd, so expecting him to repeat it was foolish.

Still, as baseball adjusts to high velocity, will he be able to maintain his reliance on the fastball? To a certain extent, yes. The 27-year-old righty is in his physical prime and as long as the velocity and spin rate are comfortably above average, he’s still a valuable pitcher.

However, if he wants to remain elite or even duplicate his 2017 success, he needs to find a secondary offering that will keep hitters honest. The fastball-heavy approach doesn’t work in certain matchups, notably against Boston, though few teams had an approach that worked against the Sox’s offense. After a few rough regular-season outings, the Sox scored one run over 3 2/3 against him in October with seven baserunners and zero strikeouts.

Green’s exit velocity allowed was 89.3 mph in 2017 and jumped to 91.0 percent, both in the bottom two percentile of the league. His barrel % against rose to 10.6 percent. Batters are squaring up his pitches more and whether a change in location, pitch selection or both, he’ll need to find a new approach to reverse that trend.

What’s the deal with his secondary pitches?

OK, Green is great with mostly just one pitch, but what else does he have?

The right-hander saw his slider decrease in effectiveness as he cut back on its usage. The sample size was small (64 plate appearances and 237 pitches in 2017 with 30 PAs and 129 pitches in 2018), but he saw declines in whiff rate, batting average against and ISO against. It’s intriguing to see the Yankees let, or perhaps encourage, Green to go away from the slider when they tend to favor offspeed pitches.

2017 2018
Percentage Sliders 20.9 10.2
Average Velocity 85.6 mph 87.1 mph
Average Spin Rate 2,165 rpm 2,269 rpm
Whiff Rate 29.7% 28.9%
Exit Velocity 87.2 mph 86.9 mph
wOBA .214 .464
AVG .194 .414
ISO .080 .241

Again, it’s hard to read too much into this and it’s partially due to Green giving up two homers on sliders in 2018 compared to none in 2017. He was more homer-happy overall, allowing nine in 2018, five more than the previous season.

Green turned to his four-seamer to the point that he eschewed his seldom-used cutter, sinker and changeup as he became fully adapted to his bullpen role. Instead, he broke out a split-finger pitch with limited frequency as his third pitch, throwing it 40 times, according to Statcast. He only threw it once against righties, instead using it to get left-handed batters to swing and miss.

Brooks Baseball shows that he didn’t use the splitter at all last season until August 2018. That could mean that he implemented it in response to a poor July, though it probably came from more work than that.

Green got whiffs on the splitter nearly half the time, an impressive rate in a small sample. He’s continued to use it this spring, getting the following strikeout against the Orioles’ Steve Wilkerson (Gif via MLB.TV).

Gotta love that action diving down and away from the lefty.

Is the splitter going to be as good as his fastball? No, yet anything Green can come up with to balance out his trusty four-seamer would give him a chance to avoid the normal fungibility of relievers and stay on top of his game. Whether it’s the splitter, slider or something else, he’ll need a secondary pitch in the long term.

What is Green’s role now?

From this amateur perspective, Green is behind the Yankees’ top four in the bullpen due to contract, performance or whatever other reasons you can throw out. Based on his numbers the last two years, Green is equal to the high-leverage tasks that those pitchers will be thrown into, and he’s clearly a notch above Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle and whomever the eighth man is.

So how will Aaron Boone utilize Green? One option that separates Green is his ability to work as a multi-inning reliever. We’ve seen Betances, in particular, used in that spot at times, though mostly in the postseason. Green threw just 6 2/3 more innings in 2018 while appearing in 23 more games, seeing his multi-inning appearances go down but not fully dissipate.

Considering the Yankees’ depth, that could mean Green takes higher leverage, fireman spots earlier in the game. With two of Luis Cessa, Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga getting April starts, they’re going to need quality long relief from the get-go. Using Green for longer outings both shortens the game by getting the ball to the other ace relievers while preserving some of his fellow pen mates for other games.

In that way, the Yankees can operate with two entirely separate bullpens every other day, using Green and, let’s say, Britton to get to Chapman one day while Ottavino and Betances lock down the high leverage spots on others.

Last season, many of those high leverage outings in the fifth and sixth inning seemingly went to Jonathan Holder, who was up for the task. Will he be as reliable this year in what was essentially the Adam Warren role? If not, Green may need to take the less glamorous but still needed spots there rather than getting seventh and eighth inning spots.

Green could also be the Yankees’ most effective opener. He has recent starting experience and doesn’t have platoon splits (or may even have reverse ones based on his strikeout rates). If the team needs someone to take the top of the lineup before giving the ball to Cessa or whoever is the spot starter, Green is a good bet.

Spring Training Game Thread: Trying out the Opener

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(Presswire)

Only seven exhibition games and nine days until Opening Day. At this time next week, the Yankees will be done with their exhibition schedule and will be enjoying the first of two off-days leading into the regular season opener. We’re getting there. Real baseball is close.

Luis Cessa was originally scheduled to start this afternoon’s game against the Rays, but that won’t happen. He will pitch at some point. Don’t worry. The Yankees are trying out the opener strategy today and giving Chad Green the start instead. Green’s a logical opener candidate and today is more about getting him comfortable with the role than seeing the results. The Yankees really should use an opener for their fill-in starters. Hopefully today is an indication they are leaning that way. Here is the Rays’ lineup and here are the players the Yankees will use today:

  1. CF Brett Gardner
  2. RF Aaron Judge
  3. DH Giancarlo Stanton
  4. C Gary Sanchez
  5. 3B Miguel Andujar
  6. 1B Greg Bird
  7. 2B Gleyber Torres
  8. SS Troy Tulowitzki
  9. LF Clint Frazier

RHP Chad Green

Available Position Players: C Francisco Diaz, C Ryan Lavarnway, C Jorge Saez, 1B Ryan McBroom, IF Angel Aguilar, IF Thairo Estrada, IF Kyle Holder, IF Hoy Jun Park, OF Devyn Bolasky, OF Billy Burns, OF Jeff Hendrix, OF Matt Lipka. McBroom, Aguilar, Estrada, Park, Bolasky, and Hendrix are extra players up from minor league camp.

Available Pitchers: RHP Braden Bristo, LHP Zack Britton, LHP Rex Brothers, RHP Luis Cessa, LHP Danny Coulombe, LHP Anderson Severino, RHP David Sosebee. Bristo, Severino, and Sosebee are the extra arms up from minor league camp.

The weather in Tampa is not great today. It rained all morning, and even though the heaviest stuff is over, there are still some scattered sprinkles in the forecast throughout the afternoon. A gloomy day for baseball. Today’s game will begin at 1:05pm ET and you can watch live on YES and MLB.tv. There are no MLB.tv blackouts during Spring Training. Enjoy the game.

Passan: Angels, Mike Trout nearing record $430M extension

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(Harry How/Getty)

According to Jeff Passan, the Angels and Mike Trout are nearing a record 12-year extension worth $430M. It is ten years and $363.5M on top of the two years and $66.5M remaining on his current contract. This is easily the largest contract in baseball history, breaking Bryce Harper’s record.

Here are the six largest contracts in baseball history:

  1. Mike Trout, Angels: 12 years, $430M
  2. Bryce Harper, Phillies: 13 years, $330M
  3. Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins: 13 years, $325M
  4. Manny Machado, Padres: 10 years, $300M
  5. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees: 10 years, $275M
  6. Nolan Arenado, Rockies: 8 years, $260M

Four of the six were signed within the last month or so, which I’m sure some will say is evidence baseball is just fine economically. In other news, the Yankees signed a league average starter who’s thrown at least 170 innings in eight of the last nine seasons to a minor league contract yesterday.

Trout’s contract reportedly includes no opt-outs and, if it doesn’t include no-trade protection, he’s less than three years away from picking up five-and-ten rights. Who knows how things will play out over the next 12 years. It sure seems like this contract will keep Trout in Anaheim the rest of his career though, and that’s pretty cool.

At age 27, Trout is already a slam dunk Hall of Famer, having hit .317/.416/.573 (172 wRC+) with 240 homers, 189 steals, and +64 WAR in parts of eight big league seasons. Last season was maybe his best ever (.312/.460/.628 and 191 wRC+) and he still has multiple peak years remaining. He is very deserving of this contract.

The Trout extension doesn’t have much impact on the Yankees other than taking away a potential free agent target in two years, so this is a pretty good reminder that you should sign acquire elite talent while you can. I don’t believe the Yankees passed on Harper and Machado now because they wanted Arenado or Trout later. I’m just sayin’.

The Aaron Hicks injury opens the door for Greg Bird to make the Opening Day roster

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(Presswire)

Spring Training 2019 has not been kind to the Yankees. They lost Luis Severino to a shoulder injury that will sideline him until at least early-May, and over the weekend top prospect Estevan Florial broke his wrist crashing into the center field wall. That’s on top of Didi Gregorius and Jordan Montgomery rehabbing their new elbow ligaments.

The Yankees have also lost center fielder Aaron Hicks to a back issue that, to date, has required two cortisone shots and kept him out of Grapefruit League action since March 1st. Over the weekend Aaron Boone finally admitted what had become increasingly obvious: Hicks will have to begin the regular season on the injured list.

“He could avoid a full (injured list) stay at the big league level because obviously we can backdate him,” Boone said to Coley Harvey. “There’s still a little bit in there, and we just want to make sure this isn’t something that lingers during the season. Hopefully this will knock it out once and for all, but it will slow him down by a couple of days.”

Brett Gardner is the obvious candidate to play center field while Hicks is sidelined and, over the weekend, Tyler Wade played center in anticipation of backup duty. He’ll see more time out there this week. Clint Frazier could be a center field candidate as well, though that seems unlikely. He’s probably headed to Triple-A Scranton for regular at-bats after missing much of last season.

An outside acquisition can’t be ruled out but free agency has little to offer. Maybe a veteran on a minor league deal (Peter Bourjos?) or an out-of-options outfielder (Aaron Altherr?) shakes loose over the next few days. That’s the best hope right now. “I still don’t believe Hicks is going to miss that much time. I feel like we can handle it internally right now,” Boone said to Bryan Hoch.

Although carrying an extra outfielder (Billy Burns?) while Hicks is out is the easy and straightforward move, it is sounding more and more likely Greg Bird will take his spot on the roster. At least to me, it’s felt like the Yankees have been hoping to find a way to carry Bird and Luke Voit on the Opening Day roster, and now they have one.

“I think we’re looking at two impact players,” Boone said to Hoch regarding his two first basemen. “There’s probably more of a case now that both could be part of things. But I know that I’m looking at two really good players.”

Carrying two first base only players with an eight-man bullpen and three-man bench hardly qualifies as ideal roster construction. Injuries usually create roster headaches though, and with Hicks sidelined and Frazier looking awfully rusty this spring, Bird becomes the best Opening Day roster option almost by default. Let’s talk this out a bit.

1. The Hicks injury opens a lineup spot. With Hicks out, Gardner moves to center field and Giancarlo Stanton moves to left field. That’s the most likely arrangement. That opens up the DH spot and thus a regular lineup spot for Bird and his left-handed bat, something the Yankees could use (assuming he actually hits). A possible lineup:

  1. CF Brett Gardner
  2. RF Aaron Judge
  3. LF Giancarlo Stanton
  4. DH Luke Voit
  5. 3B Miguel Andujar
  6. C Gary Sanchez
  7. 1B Greg Bird
  8. 2B Gleyber Torres
  9. SS Troy Tulowitzki

That lineup is quite fungible. Boone could flip Gardner and Torres, or Sanchez and Torres, or Andujar and Torres, or Sanchez and Bird, or Judge and Stanton. Other than Judge and Stanton hitting eighth and ninth, I’m not sure there’s a “wrong” batting order with those players. Deep lineup is deep.

Point is, the Hicks injury opens a lineup spot and pushes Stanton into the outfield. The Yankees could give all those suddenly available DH at-bats to Bird, though I imagine DJ LeMahieu will be a factor as well. Replacing Hicks in center field is only part of it. They also have to replace him in the lineup, and Bird helps do that.

(Earlier this spring Boone said he considers Bird a better defender than Voit — my eyes agree with that — so chances are it would be Bird at first base and Voit at DH on days both are in the lineup.)

2. Wade’s versatility becomes that much more important. With Bird and Voit, the Yankees would be dedicating two of their 12 position player spots to first basemen. The Cardinals threw Voit in left field for a few games in Triple-A the last two years but nah, I don’t see that as a realistic option and neither do the Yankees given the fact they haven’t bothered to try it this spring. Could you imagine Voit in the outfield? Oy vey.

Wade seemed to have a bench spot locked down before the Hicks injury grew into something more than a minor nuisance. Since he can play the outfield, the Yankees can count on him as their fourth outfielder temporarily. If Wade couldn’t play the outfield, they’d have no choice but to use his roster spot on another outfielder with both Voit and Bird on the roster. That ability to play everywhere helps the Yankees and keeps Wade on the roster.

3. What happens when Hicks returns? Worry about it when the time comes. It’s a cop out, I know, but it’s the correct answer. These things always have a way of taking care of themselves. By time Hicks returns, there’s a chance someone else will have played his way down to Triple-A, making the roster decisions easy. Or the Yankees could’ve lost another player to injury. That’s baseball.

Boone said Hicks could be back for the second series of the regular season, but let’s be real here, they’ve underestimated the Hicks injury every step of the way. This went from “he’s day-to-day” in early-March to “two cortisone shots and he’s going to miss Opening Day” real quick. I’ll believe Hicks will be back for the second series when I see it. Bird may be on the roster longer than we think.

“This becomes an important week for us, just trying to evaluate and make the best decisions,” Boone said to Hoch. “We don’t think it’s going to be a long time for Hicks, but that’ll factor into it. How many pitchers we go with, how we can figure that, those will all be conversations that we have that will be ongoing throughout the week. But I would say, we haven’t decided anything yet.”

* * *

The Yankees love Bird and I am certain they want him to seize the opportunity created by the Hicks injury and run with it. They want to have to make a difficult first base decision at some point. At this point I need to see Bird stay healthy and produce for more than, like, five games at a time to buy into him as potential impact piece. There is upside here though, and there figure to be DH at-bats available now. The Hicks injury is Bird’s latest chance to show the club he’s worth keeping around.

March 18th Spring Training Notes: Gonzalez, Florial, Ellsbury

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(Presswire)

The Yankees beat the Braves this evening. Masahiro Tanaka was on top of his game, striking out seven and allowing one run on two hits and a walk in five innings. He has one more tune-up start before Opening Day. Adam Ottavino, who’s had a sneaky bad spring, allowed three runs on two hits and two walks in two-thirds of an inning. Time to panic? Nah. Wait until he does that a few times during the regular season.

Offensively, Luke Voit (home run) and Aaron Judge (triple) led the way. Judge is still looking for his first single this spring. Nothing but extra-base hits so far. Brett Gardner and DJ LeMahieu had one single apiece, Tyler Wade doubled, and Austin Romine had three base hits. Another good Grapefruit League game. The Yankees won and everyone made it out in one piece. Here is the box score and here are the day’s notes from Tampa:

  • In case you missed it earlier, the Yankees have agreed to a minor league deal with Gio Gonzalez. Brian Cashman called it a “verbal understanding” and said he’s not sure when Gonzalez will be MLB ready. Gio will join the Yankees in the coming days. [Erik Boland, George King, Joel Sherman]
  • Estevan Florial (wrist) will wear a hard cast for a few weeks and Aaron Boone didn’t have an exact timetable for his return. Florial actually has two fractures in his wrist, but the second fracture is small and won’t require as much time to heal as the main fracture. [Brendan Kuty]
  • When will Jacoby Ellsbury (hip) rejoin the Yankees? “The timetable is ‘As soon as possible.’ It’s hard to give an exact day or week, but we’re doing everything. I’m in baseball activity, so that’s the good news,” he said. Ellsbury reported to camp yesterday to continue his rehab. [Ken Davidoff]
  • The Yankees have back-to-back games on the other side of Florida on Wednesday and Thursday. Usually they have a group of players stay overnight rather than make the long bus trip back and forth. Miguel Andujar, Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, and Tyler Wade are all making the trip. [Coley Harvey]
  • Conor Foley has the day’s minor league camp workout groups. Reminder: These are only spring workout groups. They are not regular season assignments. Here is video of Deivi Garcia and personal favorite Tanner Myatt from today’s games.
  • And finally, MLB is testing out a new device that allows the pitcher and catcher to communicate through watches. The Yankees tried it out last week and some said it slowed everything down. Meh, no harm in trying. [Jesse Dougherty, James Wagner]

The Grapefruit League season continues tomorrow afternoon with a home game against the Rays. Luis Cessa is the scheduled starting pitcher. Tomorrow’s game will be televised live.

How the Yankees can mitigate the absences of Luis Severino and CC Sabathia

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(Presswire)

The regular season has yet to begin, but the Yankees’ season is already off to an auspicious start. Without ace Luis Severino until May (at the earliest) and back of the rotation stalwart CC Sabathia until some point in April, the Yankees will have to begin the season with a depleted pitching staff. Opportunities for Luis Cessa, Domingo German, and Jonathan Loaisiga have opened up thanks to these injuries. That’s not ideal, even if you’re a fan of German or Loaisiga (apologies to Cessa, but I don’t know many fans of him).

Injuries happen, especially to pitchers, so it’s not a surprise that the Yankees are in this situation. It’s just unfortunate that they’re already in this predicament. Even when Severino and Sabathia return, someone is going to miss start(s) later on in the year. For now though, the team can only address the short-term issue and be optimistic about a rotation at full-strength by early May. There are a few things that could help the team wade through the absences of Severino and Sabathia.

Skipping starts when possible

There are five off-days through the end of April, which would allow the team to use a fifth starter (or opener) only four times in the first 29 games of the year. In the scenario diagrammed above, opening day starter Masahiro Tanaka would start seven times through April 30th, allowing him an average of just under five days of rest. Even though he has a reputation of being better with extra time off, his career ERA is better on four days of rest than five. Starters two through four would average 5.67 days of rest and pitch six times a piece. Skipping starts frequently can be taxing on a rotation, but because there are so many off days to begin the year, it doesn’t look terribly strenuous.

The benefit of skipping the fifth starter as much as possible is obvious: it results in fewer starts by an inferior pitcher. We already know that the fourth starter isn’t going to be anyone the Yankees originally planned for, so that’s a step down already. You know what that means about the fifth guy. All that said about skipping starts, there’s a saying about best laid plans. Weather could throw a wrench in this approach pretty quickly. Or on the bright side, maybe Cessa provides a shot in the arm!

Using an opener

Mike wrote about why this makes sense already, even if it makes you queasy. No need for me to regurgitate what he wrote as I’m basically in agreement. Rather, here’s the simple question to ask yourself: do you want Cessa or German facing the top of the order? Or would you rather bring them in when the sixth or seventh hitter comes due?

A light early season schedule

The good news is that there are some bad teams on the slate for the first month of the season. 16 of the season’s first 29 games will be against the Orioles, Tigers, White Sox, and Royals. All but three of those games will be at home. Not having Severino or Sabathia against those teams shouldn’t make a big difference as there isn’t much of an excuse to lose to them. Obviously, things happen and they’ll inevitably drop a few against those teams, but the point stands.

The other 13 affairs aren’t a cakewalk, particularly the Astros and Red Sox. There’s a west coast trip at the end of the month, which is always challenging even though there are two presumably non-contending teams they’ll face: the Diamondbacks and Giants. By that time, perhaps they’ll have Sabathia back, which would be a nice boost to close the month.

Signing a free agent

It doesn’t sound like the Yankees are planning to go the external route, but until Gio Gonzalez and Dallas Keuchel sign elsewhere, it can’t be ruled out. Based on what we know about the prognosis for Severino and Sabathia along with the light schedule and off days, I can understand why the Yankees don’t feel pressed for external help. Still, setbacks happen. There’s only so long they can bide their time without outside assistance unless the young arms step up.

One reason that being proactive for a free agent makes sense is because of a potential setback for Severino or Sabathia. What if, in a few weeks, we hear that either of the two need more time on the shelf, but neither Keuchel or Gonzalez are available? The Yankees would really be in a bind then. Sure, it would be a issue if everyone came back healthy on schedule with one of Keuchel or Gonzalez in tow, but that’s a good problem to have. These things sort themselves out. Like I said, someone else is bound to miss some time down the road, anyway. It’s not like a six-man rotation would be unheard of, too.