River Avenue Blues

When can Hughes help?

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Damian at Project Prospect took a crack at answering that question, and concludes with this:

It’s not until we start looking at some of the all time greats – Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens… – that we see pitchers called up this young without struggling. Of course, it is possible Hughes will end up being an all time great but it’s far more likely he’s going to struggle a little in his first season or two. Yankees fans need to keep this in mind as they watch him grow.

New York can be a very difficult place to struggle. Jose Contreras comes to mind as an example of an extremely talented pitcher who couldn’t get it together in pinstripes. Hughes is likely going to have his ups and downs before he settles in as the pitcher he’s going to be throughout his career.

Have some patience with him. He’ll be a fine pitcher some day.

The whole piece is well worth the read, and really puts one key fact into perspective: almost all young pitchers struggle early on in their careers.

FYI– If you think Hughes dominated Double-A last year, take a quick look at the numbers put up by Rick Ankiel at that level at the same age, cited in the article. Can’t help but wonder just how good he could have been.

What to do with all these pitchers

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Phil Hughes. Humberto Sanchez. Tyler Clippard. Steven White. Ross Ohlendorf. Matt DeSalvo. Jeff Karstens. Darrell Rasner. Steven Jackson.

That’s 9 guys vying for 5 Triple-A rotation spots. Even though most of us would prefer the Yanks to have that dearth of pitching at the big league level, none of these guys are that far away from contributing to the Bombers. Before we start to shake out this situation, let’s take a quick look at which each player did last year to put themselves in contention for a AAA rotation gig:

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Farnsworth developing not one, but TWO new pitches

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Possibly lost among the “Moose had a good outing” and “Giambi is ready for the season” fodder is an interesting article in the Daily News regarding Kyle Farnsworth’s expanding repertoire.

Farnsworth, one of the Yankees’ setup men, is working on a changeup and a sinker, hoping that pitches in the mid-80s can keep hitters from sitting on his fastball. It’s something that pitching coach Ron Guidry suggested at the end of last season.

I’m a bit puzzled by this. First, how effectively is he going to be able to work in two new pitches? The article mentions that he spent most of the winter resting his troublesome back, so in essence he began developing them this spring. I’m just unsure that a guy entering his 13th year in the league can develop two new and effective pitches in a little over a month.

Second, if he’s adding these two, is he removing the slider? As frustrated as we were last year with his using it in inappropriate situations — not to mention hanging it far too often — does anyone feel better with him using new and untested pitches rather than one he’s used throughout his relief career? I mean, if he can work in a splitter and changeup effectively, then yeah, I can live without the slider. It once again comes back to the skepticism about his ability to throw these pitches.

In theory, I’d love Farnsworth to throw a splitter and a change. With his devastating heat, they seem like the perfect complement pithes. I just wish he’d have come to this realization earlier, when he’d be better able to develop them, rather than rushing in.

My official prediction: he’ll stick with the fastball and slider this season.

Photo: Matthew J. Lee / Boston Globe

Curt Schilling reads our blog

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As much as we don’t like Curt Schilling for his success against the Yankees, a statement in one of his recent blog posts makes me think he’s reading our site. After I criticized him for seemingly interviewing himself, Schilling wrote, “Since some people mistakenly thought that the Q&A was me interviewing myself, no idea how that could happen, I have taken to pasting questions instead of trying to paraphrase them.” Well, that’s neat. A real live Major Leaguer has read River Ave. Blues!

(Also, I think it was that confusing use of the personal I in the form of the interview, Curt. It wasn’t very clear.)

Counting down to Opening Day

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As I sit here at quarter to ten today, I realize that we’re just two weeks away from the start of the season. Well, two weeks, three hours, and twenty minutes. For those of you familiar with my older work, fret not: the WPA graphs will return.

Update by Mike: Down on the Farm will also be returning, though in a slightly abbreviated format.

Another option at catcher — no, it’s not Javy Lopez

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The CourierPost ran an article this morning regarding backup catcher Chris Coste’s status on the Phillies roster. He says that lack of playing time has him worried about his spot on the roster. According to the article, “The Phillies view Coste as a third-string catcher and right-handed pinch-hitter.” In my experience, it’s rare to see a team carry a third-string catcher, so yeah, I think Coste’s worries are legitimate.

This led to Steve (who also gets the hat tip for this link) speculating about a possible trade for Coste. To that I say: not a bad idea. I’m not basing that on .328/.376/.505 line in 198 at bats last season; that’s far too small a sample size. But over his storied minor league career, he holds a .805 OPS. If he can be had for a spare reliever — though that’s not a certainty, given Phillie’s reluctance to deal with the Yankees recently (you want Jason Michaels? Our opening bid is Chien-Ming Wang) — I say go for it. Coste should provide a better bat than the pitcher-esque skills of Todd Pratt and Wil Nieves.

I’m just having a hard time wrapping my head around the idea of Philly jettisoning this guy. He’s had a solid minor league career and played well once finally called to the majors. And now his backup job — once again, backing up Rod Barajas, who very well may hit worse than Coste — is in jeopardy? Carlos Ruiz (who I blindly assume is the leading backup candidate) is going to be that much better? I just don’t see it.

If Pat Gillick is looking to shed Coste for a middle reliever, Cash should jump on it; he’ll looks to be an upgrade over our backup catchers from years past.

Photo: Kathy Willens/AP

Can Igawa Adjust?

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It’s still early, and I know a lot of you are going to rip me for being too negative at this juncture, but I’m very concerned about Kei Igawa. Concerned to the point where I’m hoping that he’s the next Kaz Ishii. Okay, so maybe I exaggerate a little…but only a little. I can only think, he’ll be fine, he’s just making adjustments for so long while staring at his 9.00 BB/9.

Being a stat nut, I’m obviously enamored with his 15.43 K/9, but I realize that he’s not going to sustain that number. Once hitters figure him out, he’ll be lucky to post half that rate. Unfortunately, his walk rate isn’t guaranteed to drop along with it. That would place him right along with Ishii’s peripherals.

Then again, Ishii was a very high-strikeout, high-walk pitcher in Japan, while Igawa was a pretty high-strikeout, moderately low-walk version. What scares me is that Ishii’s strikeouts dropped and his walks rose in America, both significantly. Obviously, Igawa can’t afford to have that happen to his numbers (no pitcher can).

It is unfair to only compare/contrast Igawa to one other Japanese import, so I’ll cease at this point. I’m just trying to make some sense of him, and it’s not working. Emma Span of The Village Voice feels the same way. The only things we have to go on now are 1) his numbers and 2) the knowledge that hitters are going to figure him out and that he’ll need to make adjustments.

Well, we know his numbers aren’t so hot. A 12:7 strikeout to walk ratio seems generous when you see that he’s thrown 142 pitches this spring (over 20 per inning) and only 78 for strikes (55 percent). Soon enough, hitters are going to make their adjustments, and they’ll swing at fewer and fewer pitches out of the zone, meaning fewer strikes for Igawa. He has to adjust, and for my own sanity I’d like to see some degree of adjustment in his next start.

Here’s where the problem gets stickier: the Yanks don’t have many options if he fails to adjust quickly. They’ve invested $46 million into him, so he’s going to be with the big league squad. If he can’t hack it as a starter, the logical step would be to stick him in the bullpen, but the bullpen is a terrible place for a pitcher with control problems. Would they send him to Scranton? Could they, even if they wanted to?

Of course, he could make my ramblings moot if he settles down and quits walking guys. Based on his first three games, though, I’m not so optimistic about that. In fact, I’m trying real hard to resist the temptation to jump on the Jeff Karstens bandwagon. He’s also in the small sample size range, so I don’t want to get too excited. Another solid outing by him and another shaky one by Igawa, though, and I may just take that plunge.

Photo: Koichi Kamoshida/Getty Images