River Avenue Blues

The New Righty Strikeout Specialist [2019 Season Preview]

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(Presswire)

Last season the Yankees rostered one of the best and deepest bullpens in baseball, especially after acquiring Zack Britton at the trade deadline. At least one metric says it was the best bullpen in baseball history. They could trot out power arm after power arm after power arm. The Yankees clearly prioritize a deep and powerful bullpen, and they invested heavily in their relief crew this past offseason.

Two weeks after re-signing Britton to what amounts to a two-year contract with a one-year player option and a two-year club option, the Yankees signed native New Yorker Adam Ottavino to a straight three-year contract. The Manhattan-born and Brooklyn-raised right-hander will make $9M annually and essentially replace David Robertson as Aaron Boone’s right-handed strikeout specialist.

“When he called me two nights ago and told me, he had the sound of happiness in his voice I haven’t heard in a very long time. He could not possibly be happier,” Ottavino’s father said after the signing. “I’m happy whenever anybody gets what they want, and he really got what he wanted. Playing for the Yankees was worth an awful lot to him. At the end, playing for the Yankees was very important to him.”

Ottavino has generated headlines the last two offseasons and for different reasons. Last offseason he rebuilt himself in a vacant Harlem storefront. He immersed himself in analytics following a miserable 2017 season (5.06 ERA and 5.16 FIP), and the result was a 2.43 ERA (2.74 FIP) with 36.6% strikeouts in 77.2 innings last year. Then, this past winter, Ottavino said he would strike out Babe Ruth every time, which was a thing that made the rounds. That has since blown over (I think?).

I’m very much looking forward to what an open-minded player like Ottavino can do with an analytically-inclined organization like the Yankees. Maybe he can be even better than last season! Or maybe he just maintains that level of performance as he gets deeper into his 30s. The stathead native New Yorker hooking up with the Yankees is a match made in baseball heaven. Let’s preview Ottavino’s season.

What’s Ottavino feature?

Thanks to his cartoonish slider, Ottavino is one of the most GIF-able pitchers in baseball. I suppose this is where I should embed the obligatory slider GIF, so let’s get this out of the way:

Let’s try that another way. This is where Ottavino’s slider starts …

… and this is where it ends:

Spoiler: Ottavino is going to throw a slider like that at some point this season, Gary Sanchez won’t be able to block it, and Yankees fans will melt the hell down. Take it to the bank. Can’t predict baseball? Oh no, this is as predictable as it gets.

Anyway, Ottavino is much more than a video game slider. He works in the mid-90s with a comeback two-seamer and also throws a cutter that is effectively a shorter version of his slider. Ottavino has that big-breaking slider he sweeps away from righties and also a cutter with less break he can use closer to the zone. Here are some 2018 numbers on Ottavino’s stuff (MLB averages in parenthesis):

% Thrown Velocity Spin Rate Whiffs per Swing
Slider 46.8% 81.4 mph (84.4 mph) 2,787 rpm (2,397 rpm) 37.2% (35.5%)
Two-Seamer 41.9% 93.8 mph (91.7 mph) 2,288 rpm (2,125 rpm) 24.5% (16.0%)
Cutter 9.8% 87.1 mph (88.7 mph) 2,605 rpm (2,345 rpm) 48.1% (25.2%)

I think it’s pretty interesting Ottavino has above-average fastball velocity but below-average slider velocity. We’re talking a 12.4 mph separation between the two pitches, on average. That is enormous. The league average separation between all fastballs (not just two-seamers) and sliders is 8.4 mph. Ottavino fastball-slider separation is roughly 50% larger than the league average. That absolutely contributes to his effectiveness. He really changes speeds.

Also, Ottavino mentioned a few weeks ago that he is excited to get away from Coors Field, but not because of all the hits and home runs. He’s looking forward to pitching at sea level full-time so the movement on his pitches is consistent. Pitches do not move as much at altitude the same way they do at sea level. I ran the numbers a few weeks ago and the difference is noticeable. We’re talking 3-4 inches of break on Ottavino’s pitches in some cases.

Ottavino will give out some walks (11.7% last year) and I can’t help but wonder how much the constant altitude changes contributed to that. Imagine getting certain movement on your pitches at home, then going out on the road and getting more movement on those same pitches (or vice versa), and doing it over and over again all season. Can’t be fun. Can’t be easy. Ottavino doesn’t have to worry about that anymore now.

For all intents and purposes, Ottavino is a two-seamer/slider pitcher with a show-me cutter. He recently said he worked on developing a new pitch over the winter without saying what it is (splitter?), though he hasn’t pitched enough in televised Grapefruit League games for us to see a potential new pitch in action, if he’s even thrown it. But yeah, it’s a heavy two-seamer and a soft slider, both with a ton of movement. Ottavino’s fun.

What will his role be?

If nothing else, the Yankees are believers in having a set Eighth Inning Guy™. Aroldis Chapman is going to close, we know that much, and Dellin Betances will undoubtedly begin the year as Chapman’s primary setup man after the season he had last year. That leaves Ottavino, Britton, and Chad Green for the sixth and seventh innings. I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of them lock in as the set Seventh Inning Guy™.

Ottavino did a little of everything during his time with the Rockies. Last season he typically pitched the eighth inning ahead of closer Wade Davis. He’s closed some in the past, he’s pitched in middle relief, he’s done it all. There isn’t a role he is unfamiliar with, which is good. Perhaps that means Boone will be flexible with him and use him as a true fireman in different spots rather than lock him into one inning.

“We have some guys who have a little more strength versus left-handed hitters, even though they’re right-handed pitchers, like Chad Green and Dellin Betances,” Ottavino said a few weeks ago. “I’ve been pretty tough on righties in my career, so I expect to get a lot of righty-on-righty matchups given our bullpen depth.”

As you’d expect given that slider, Ottavino was indeed more effective against righties than lefties last season. That isn’t to say he was bad against lefties. Not at all. They hit .174/.319/.241 (.252 wOBA) against him with a 32.4% strikeout rate. It’s just that Ottavino held righties to a .138/.231/.236 (.215 wOBA) batting line with a 39.4% strikeout rate. He was outstanding against righties and he didn’t need to be sheltered from lefties either.

The perfect world scenario would be using Ottavino as the top right-handed matchup guy. Mookie Betts at the plate in a big spot in the sixth inning? J.D. Martinez in the seventh? Tommy Pham or Vlad Guerrero Jr. in the fifth? With Betances locked into the eighth inning for the time being, Ottavino is best equipped for those situations. The pure stuff is enough to overwhelm any right-handed batter. Matching up against top righty bats rather than being married to one set inning seems like the best way to use Ottavino.

Bullpen roles tend to develop organically as the season progresses — who had Betances being the team’s no-doubt Eighth Inning Guy™ at this time last year? — and my guess is Ottavino will be in that seventh inning mix with Britton. Perhaps they’ll share the role, with Ottavino facing tough righties and Britton facing tough lefties as necessary. That’s probably easiest. Of course, there will also be days he’s needed in the eighth inning, or the fifth. That’s baseball.

* * *

Replacing Robertson with Ottavino is very similar to replacing Robertson with Andrew Miller. In both instances the Yankees let Robertson, a very effective homegrown reliever and a known quantity, leave as a free agent so they could replace him with a cheaper player (in terms of annual salary) with a much shorter track record, but also someone who had a chance to be just as good as Robertson, if not better. Same idea both times.

Miller had one elite season under his belt when the Yankees signed him and the same applies to Ottavino now. Trading Miller for prospects in year two of his four-year contract was definitely not part of the plan, and boy, if the Yankees have to trade Ottavino for prospects at some point, it would mean something really went wrong. The logic is the similar though, and the Miller/Robertson move worked out pretty well. A repeat with Ottavino would be splendid.

Spring Training Game Thread: Three weeks to Opening Day

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(Presswire)

The dog days of Spring Training have arrived. I love baseball and Grapefruit League games are fun in their own way, but geez, there are still three weeks until Opening Day. I’m getting antsy. Well, anyway, the Yankees are back in action this afternoon and new addition James Paxton is on the mound. Paxton was always going to be important to the 2019 Yankees. With Luis Severino nursing a shoulder problem, Paxton’s importance has been ramped up.

What to watch beyond Paxton today? Danny Farquhar is going to make his second spring appearance, so that’s cool, plus the first base competition will continue. Is it a “competition” or a real competition? I lean toward the former. We’ll see. Anyway, here is the Bryce Harper-less Phillies’ lineup the Yankees will see today, and here are the players the Yankees will use today:

  1. SS Troy Tulowitzki
  2. 3B Miguel Andujar
  3. 1B Luke Voit
  4. C Gary Sanchez
  5. DH Greg Bird
  6. LF Clint Frazier
  7. CF Estevan Florial
  8. RF Matt Lipka
  9. 2B Thairo Estrada

LHP James Paxton

Available Position Players: C Kellin Deglan, C Francisco Diaz, C Kyle Higashioka, 1B Mike Ford, IF L.J. Mazzilli, IF Wendell Rijo, IF Gio Urshela, OF Trey Amburgey, OF Billy Burns, OF Rashad Crawford, OF Zack Zehner, UTIL Tyler Wade. Mazzilli, Rijo, Crawford, and Zehner are up from minor league camp for the road trip.

Available Pitchers: RHP Danny Farquhar, RHP David Hale, RHP Jonathan Holder, LHP Trevor Lane, RHP Adam Ottavino, RHP David Sosebee, LHP Stephen Tarpley, RHP Greg Weissert. Lane, Sosebee, and Weissert are the extra arms up from minor league camp.

It is nice and sunny in Clearwater this afternoon, and also on the cool side. Pretty excellent weather. Today’s game will begin at 1:05pm ET and you can watch live on MLB.tv anywhere or on NBC Sports Philadelphia in the Phillies’ home market. There is no YES Network or MLB Network broadcast today. Enjoy the game.

Poll: Undoing one Yankees’ offseason move

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(Presswire)

Now that the big fish of free agency have picked their destinations, we can officially close the door on the Yankees’ offseason. (I wouldn’t hold my breath for a Dallas Keuchel signing even after the Luis Severino injury.) Even without Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, the Yankees had a pretty busy winter. They signed seven free agents, though only three are new to the club. Two significant trades were completed as well.

If you had a mulligan, which transaction would you undo? For argument’s sake, I’ll make a brief case against each move. I’ll then make my choice and let you vote on yours at the end.

Re-signed Brett Gardner (1 year, $7.5 million)

The first step of the offseason was to buy out Gardner’s $12 million 2019 option for a cool $2 million. Then, the Yanks re-signed him for $7.5 million immediately thereafter. It wasn’t a total shock that the team declined its club option on the outfielder, but it was somewhat surprising to see them bring him back immediately. Gardner had a 66 wRC+ in the second half last season, and at 35 years of age, looked just about done. If the front office knew that Bryce Harper was never going to be an option, they should have looked for alternatives before handing Gardner the left field job this season. If Gardner is indeed toast, hopefully Clint Frazier rights the team’s wrong.

Re-signed CC Sabathia (1 year, $8 million)

Unlike Gardner, Sabathia is in the midst of a late career resurgence. The main concern is his heart health after he underwent an angioplasty over the winter, but in terms of performance, there haven’t been any signs of decline. He’s recorded a 117 ERA+ since 2016, but maybe it would have been wise to part ways before Sabathia’s decline. Even though he’s reinvented his pitching style, who knows what could happen at 38 years old.

Re-signed Zack Britton (3 years, $39 million)

The Yankees ostensibly believe that they’re going to get the old Britton. Yet, bouts of forearm soreness in 2017 and a ruptured Achilles prior to the 2018 season sapped much of the southpaw’s effectiveness in recent seasons. For what it’s worth, his stuff looked pretty good in pinstripes at the end of the year. Still, he was pretty wild and struggled to miss bats. Why should we be confident that he’s going to be an elite reliever again?

Re-signed J.A. Happ (2 years, $34 million)

The concern about Happ is not unlike the worries about Sabathia. Happ is another older pitcher, at 36 years old, so the end could come at a moment’s notice. And like Sabathia, Happ has been really good in recent years. It’s just a matter of: is it better to move on too soon or too late? Especially when a younger and better alternative, Patrick Corbin, was available in free agency.

Signed Adam Ottavino (3 years, $27 million)

Ottavino was awesome last season. He’s got a wipeout slider and a strong fastball. How can anyone argue against that? Well, he’s also just a season removed from walking 39 batters in 53 innings. Control has hindered Ottavino in past years and he’s had a bit of a volatile career because of it.

Signed DJ LeMahieu (2 years, $24 million)

As it always goes with ex-Rockies, will he be able to hit away from Coors Field? That’s not the only reason for consternation, though. He’s settled in as a starting second baseman but will now be expected to bounce around the infield without a regular starting role. Is he expected to play almost everyday? Yes. But perhaps having to spend time on the infield corners becomes a problem too. Perhaps Marwin Gonzalez would have been the better option as a super-utility player.

Signed Troy Tulowitzki (league minimum)

When much of the fanbase wanted Machado, signing an oft-injured ex-star is a bit underwhelming. Not only have injuries marred much of Tulo’s career, but he’s also 34 years-old and hasn’t played well since 2014. To count on him as the starting shortstop while Didi Gregorius recovers from Tommy John surgery is a huge risk. There’s nothing wrong with taking a flyer on a guy like Tulowitzki, but entrusting him with a significant role could get ugly.

Traded for James Paxton

On a per inning basis, Paxton is elite. The problem throughout his career has been that he’s struggled to rack up innings, however. The Yankees are really counting on him to create a one-two punch with (healthy) Luis Severino, but will Paxton hold up? Getting an ace isn’t a piece of cake, and sometimes risks have to be undertaken in order to get one, which is precisely what the Yankees are rolling the dice on here. Again, with Corbin available for money, the Yankees could have held prospects like Justus Sheffield for an alternative to Paxton.

Traded away Sonny Gray

There’s no question that Gray’s tenure in pinstripes did not work out. If Gray thrives with the Reds, it’ll be easy to say the Yankees screwed up. But, was it sensible to deal Gray at his lowest value? Gray could have been given some sort of opportunity to rebuild himself in New York this year. Maybe he could have served as the swingman, which appeared to be Luis Cessa’s job to lose before Severino’s injury.

My vote goes for Gardner. I’d have been happy to have him back as a fourth outfielder, but to me, there was no need to rush into an agreement at the outset of free agency. His performance wasn’t going to find him a big contract elsewhere for the Yankees to match, and in fact, they probably could have saved a few bucks if they were patient. Not that the Yankees need to save a few bucks, but rather, my point is that they could have sought a better starting left fielder before returning to Gardy.

What offseason move would you undo?
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March 6th Spring Training Notes: Severino, Sabathia, Hicks, Ellsbury, King, Roster Cuts

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The Yankees came from ahead to lose to the Cardinals this afternoon. Austin Romine clubbed a three-run home run to lead the way offensively. Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu, and Tyler Wade all doubled, plus Brett Gardner and Giancarlo Stanton had singles. Torres had two hits on the day. Clint Frazier and Greg Bird each drew a walk. Seemed like Yankees hitters were in 3-2 counts all afternoon.

Jonathan Loaisiga started and looked very good in his first two innings (four strikeouts) before things unraveled in his third inning (three runs). He is pitching for a rotation spot now. Aroldis Chapman was the only projected big league reliever to pitch today and he allowed a soft single in an otherwise ho hum inning. Here are the box score and video highlights, and here are the day’s notes from Tampa:

  • Luis Severino (shoulder) is optimistic he won’t miss much time. All his strength tests came back strong. “It’s going to be tough for a little bit, but after that, like I said, it’s better it happened now than in midseason or at the end of the season,” he said. Not surprisingly, Brian Cashman said the Yankees will be cautious with Severino and give him as much time as he needs. [Coley Harvey]
  • CC Sabathia (knee) threw his third bullpen session today as scheduled. Aaron Boone stated the obvious and said Sabathia will likely start the season on the injured list, but said it should be a “short” stay. Boone make it sound like it’ll be the injured list then the five-game suspension, not the other way around. The order does matter a bit because the Yankees have to play with a 24-man roster during the suspension. [Meredith Marakovits, Lindsey Adler]
  • Aaron Hicks (back) is expected to resume baseball activities tomorrow, Boone said during an in-game interview with YES this afternoon. Hicks was ready to go today, but the Yankees held him out one more day as a precaution. Resuming baseball activities tomorrow means he is probably a few days from returning to game action.
  • Jacoby Ellsbury (hip) will join the Yankees next weekend so they can evaluate his progress. What happens after that is anyone’s guess. Also, Mike King (elbow) has an MRI coming up soon. Three weeks ago the Yankees shut him down and said he’ll be evaluated again in three weeks, and it’s been three weeks, so there you go. [Brendan Kuty]
  • The Yankees announced their first round of roster cuts this morning. Domingo Acevedo, Brady Lail, and Trevor Stephan were sent to minor league camp. There are still 59 players in big league camp, according to my unofficial count.

If you’re interested, this afternoon’s game will be replayed on YES (after the Nets game) and MLB Network (12am ET). The Yankees will be on the road tomorrow afternoon to take on the Phillies. Miguel Andujar, Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton, Gary Sanchez, Troy Tulowitzki, and Luke Voit are all making the trip, so says Lindsey Adler. Tomorrow’s game will be televised live.

Masahiro Tanaka and the potential benefits of throwing more elevated fastballs

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(Presswire)

For years now Masahiro Tanaka has been the poster boy for the Yankees’ anti-fastball philosophy. Despite the ongoing narrative that he lost velocity following his 2014 elbow injury, Tanaka’s fastball velocity has held steady since then, but the fastball is still his clear third pitch. His splitter and slider are his two best weapons so he uses them. A lot.

Man can not live on offspeed pitches alone though. Tanaka’s fastball will never be a putaway pitch, but it is a pitch he needs to set up his splitter and slider. It’s something to keep hitters honest. Anecdotally, it seemed to me Tanaka threw more elevated fastballs last year, though that’s not really the case. Here are the numbers:

% Fastballs % Elevated Fastballs Fastball Whiffs per Swing
2015 43.3% 4.0% 13.8%
2016 35.4% 3.3% 11.6%
2017 37.4% 3.8% 16.6%
2018 32.0% 5.1% 18.1%

Just to be clear, this table is telling us 32.0% of Tanaka’s pitches were fastballs last season, and 5.1% of his fastballs were elevated. (“Elevated” means in the upper third of the strike zone and above.) Tanaka did throw his highest rate of elevated fastballs last season, though we’re talking one extra elevated fastball for every 100 fastballs thrown, or one every three starts or so. That’s an insignificant difference.

In the year 2019, baseball is all about missing bats and keeping the ball out of play. Elevated fastballs accomplish that. They’re a great swing-and-miss pitch. Here are the league averages on fastballs:

% Thrown Whiffs per Swing Ground Ball Rate xwOBA
Upper Third 22.8% 28.6% 25.1% .256
Middle Third 62.9% 14.7% 33.5% .376
Lower Third 14.3% 9.6% 51.1% .300

Even with high heaters becoming increasingly popular, I am genuinely surprised to see the league threw more fastballs in the upper third of the strike zone (and above) than the lower third (and below) last year. “Keep the fastball down” is one of those tried and true baseball adages, and relative to the middle third of the zone, it is absolutely true. You don’t want to be in the middle third. That’s the danger zone.

Clearly, elevated fastballs are preferable to fastballs down. They get way more swings and misses and also more favorable contact (i.e. pop-ups and weak fly balls) than fastballs down, which are a good ground ball pitch and nothing more. Keeping the ball down and getting quick outs on the ground is an outdated strategy. So many starters are only going through the lineup two times nowadays that keeping the pitch count down isn’t a priority. They’re only facing 18 hitters no matter what.

Tanaka, moreso than any other Yankees pitcher, strikes me as someone who might benefit from throwing more elevated fastballs. Luis Severino and James Paxton already pitch upstairs with their heaters. So does J.A Happ and every reliever except sinkerballer Zack Britton. CC Sabathia doesn’t have the fastball to pitch upstairs at this point in his career. He’s doing just fine crowding hitters inside. Tanaka is the team’s only candidate for more elevated fastballs, really.

Elevated fastballs are good for swings and misses and weak fly balls, and, in Tanaka’s case, they would also help him change the hitter’s eye level. He pitches down in the zone an awful lot with his splitter and slider, and also his fastball as well. Look at his 2018 pitch heat map. When Tanaka’s on the mound, hitters can sit on pitches down in the zone.

Sitting on pitches down doesn’t guarantee success — Tanaka is pretty darn good, after all — but it does make life a little easier for the hitter. Tanaka’s never going to be a power pitcher. He is the embodiment of the “pitcher not a thrower” cliche. Tanaka succeeds by tricking hitters and keeping them off-balance. More elevated fastballs could help make him even trickier and keep hitters even more off-balance.

Two things about this. One, is Tanaka comfortable elevating fastballs? He does it from time to time, and his overall control is very good, so it seems like he would be okay with it. That said, elevating fastballs is not easy. The top of the strike zone is basically at the belt these days, forget about the letters, so a relatively small sliver of strike zone qualifies as elevated. Too high and it’s an easy take for a ball. Too low and it’s in the wheelhouse. Tanaka might not want to elevate his heater more than he is now.

And two, the Yankees have almost certainly thought of this already. Their pitching staff throws so many elevated fastballs that it is safe to assume it is intentional, and I’m sure they’ve considered having Tanaka do it as well. Maybe the numbers say it’s a bad idea or simply not worth it, or maybe Tanaka said he doesn’t feel comfortable doing it. My guess is this is something that has been discussed internally at some point. I’m not going to pretend to have shed light on some great big secret here.

Tanaka is very much an outlier on a pitching stiff built around velocity. He lives and dies with his splitter and slider, and only shows the hitter a fastball to keep them from waiting back on an offspeed pitch. Maybe more elevated fastballs would help, especially in two-strike counts. If Tanaka is not comfortable with it though, pitching up in the zone with his fastball could wind up being counterproductive.

The Polarizing Backstop Poised for a Rebound [2019 Season Preview]

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Expect much more of this. (Getty)

The Yankees are the most scrutinized team in baseball and, as such, always need a lightning rod. Gary Sanchez has taken the baton from Alex Rodriguez to become the team’s newest polarizing figure. There is no moderation with Gary Sanchez: fans either love him or love to hate him. It’s not difficult to see why, as the Yankee backstop has been at the center of many key moments of the current resurgence in the Bronx.  Just consider a sample of prominent storylines involving the Kraken since the beginning of 2017:

  • He was benched in early August of 2017 by Yankee skipper Joe Girardi, who argued that Gary needed to “improve his defense”;
  • A few weeks later, he participated in a scuffle with the Detroit Tigers, landing what most observers considered a “cheap shot” or “sucker punch” on superstar Miguel Cabrera;
  • That October, he was widely-panned and blamed for the Yanks’ ALCS Game 2 loss to the Houston Astros for dropping a throw home in the 9th inning;
  • Two games later, his double in the 8th inning capped off a memorable Yankee comeback to tie the series and sent the Yankee Stadium crowd into a thunderous frenzy;
  • Girardi’s treatment of Sanchez played a major role in the Yanks’ decision to let him go following the 2017 season and an important role in their decision to hire Aaron Boone;
  • During the Yankees early-season run of dominance last year, he hit a walk-off, three-run home run against Minnesota and delivered another three-run, go-ahead 9th inning homer off Houston closer Ken Giles to secure a particularly delicious win;
  • He had a miserable game in Tampa featuring both atrocious defense and lack of appropriate hustle, all while re-injuring himself;
  • He was party to one of the worst defensive displays in recent Yankee memory during a skid in September against the Oakland A’s; and, finally,
  • He hit two towering home runs in Game 2 of the ALDS, playing a major role in the Yanks’ sole victory in the series.

These specific moments were more than just talk radio fodder: they either validated or challenged fans’ preconceived notions of the slugger, building on a history of accusations of laziness and complacency that have dogged him since he signed with the Yankees at age 16—though it’s impossible to overlook the implicit bias on display. Fans love to criticize his defense (more on that in a bit) and a non-insignificant number of fans proudly claim that Austin Romine is a better option.

The Yankees organization itself, by contrast, loves Sanchez. “It would be hard not to have Gary Sanchez as our catcher”, Brian Cashman said last offseason. “He’s certainly someone that we’ve invested in and believe and expect to be a part of this place moving forward.”

They’ve walked the walk, too, sticking with him last postseason against Oakland and Boston last year on top of repeatedly offering their support for their controversial catcher. In other words, Gary Sanchez, love him or hate him, is the Yankee catcher now and for the future.

It’s no secret that 2018 was a lost campaign for Gary, so let’s look back at what happened before looking ahead.

What Happened in 2018?

Time to play a quick game called “which stat line belonged to Gary Sanchez last year”.

A: .232/.304/.372 (84 wRC+), .296 wOBA, 8.0% BB%, 23.5 K%, .140 ISO and .284 BABIP

B: .186/.291/.406 (89 wRC+), .304 wOBA, 12.3 BB%, 25.1% K%, .220 ISO and .197 BABIP

Sanchez, of course, was B—but A was the cumulative line for catchers across the league. The point here is not to argue that Gary was Actually Good in 2018 (he flatly was not) but to illustrate a point that often gets lost in baseball: watching one team over and over again obscures the bigger picture. (More on this in a bit.) Gary was, in other words, a league average offensive catcher last year—albeit one with above-average power and patience and an extremely low batting average on balls in play. In fact, our very own Katie Sharp presented convincing evidence over at The Athletic (subs. req’d) that suggested that Gary was atypically unlucky on balls he hit hard last year. But again: Gary is not supposed to be an average player at a weak position. He was extremely disappointing in 2018; in all likelihood, he was the most disappointing player in baseball.

On the defensive end, Gary again struggled in the most visible way: passed balls. His 18 led the league by a wide margin even with a reduced workload due to injury, and passed balls are really ugly. That’s why he has a reputation for being a sub-par defender. But the problem with narratives are that they so often paint an incomplete picture—and that’s the case for Gary and his defense. A closer look reveals that Gary is actually a competent, above-average defender. Consider his rankings in other defensive metrics, all courtesy of Baseball Savant/Statcast or Statcorner:

  • Pop Time: 1.94 seconds (tied for 3rd)
  • Arm Strength: 86.8 mph (4th)
  • Exchange: 0.76 seconds (tied for 14th)
  • Framing/RAA: 3.3 (18th out of 126 catchers with a sample of at least 2,000 pitches)

This runs counter to the conventional wisdom that Gary is a defensive liability, showing that he is a plus defender behind the dish when you factor in his ability to limit stolen bases and frame pitches. This was true even last year, despite his propensity for passed balls. Moreover, Marc Carig reported at The Athletic (subs. req’d) that the Yankees view Gary’s preparation and ability to digest analytics and advanced game plans from the front office as unique—and that’s a skillset the analytically-oriented Yankees understandably prize.

Last year was certainly a step back for Sanchez, as it was a far cry from his dominant 2017 campaign in which he was worth 4 wins or his stellar 2016 debut in which he racked up 3 wins in two short months. We know he can be better because we’ve seen it, but even still: he was an average player at a weak position in the league, and that was all while battling injury.

The Bigger Picture

Sanchez only played in 89 games last year, so to truly project what he’ll do in 2019, it’s critical to zoom out and consider the bigger picture—both relative to the rest of the league and to his past performance. As I mentioned earlier, baseball is a sport where fans typically watch their preferred team and few other teams. That’s not bad necessarily (it is one of the many reasons I love the sport) but it does have a few pernicious analytical effects: it exacerbates the flaws of our own team at the expense of others by limiting our sense of perspective.

That’s true especially true when it comes to Gary. To gain a better appreciation of Gary’s overall talent and production for the Yankees, it’s helpful to take a look at his offensive figures relative to other catchers league-wide. Since the beginning of 2016, 32 Major Leaguers have come to the plate 750 times or more with at least 75 percent of those games behind the plate. Gary’s numbers are below, with rankings in parentheses:

  • Batting Average: .252 (13th)
  • On Base Percentage: .333 (11th)
  • Slugging Percentage: .516 (1st)
  • On Base Plus Slugging: .849 (1st, next closest is Wilson Ramos at .826)
  • Walks: 110 (11th)
  • Home Runs: 71 (3rd overall, behind Yasmani Grandal (73) and Salvador Perez (76), each of whom have at least 300 more plate appearances)
  • RBI: 188 (6th)
  • Doubles: 49 (14th)

The data make it clear that Gary is one of the game’s finest catchers—and clearly the most powerful. Even when accounting for his bad year in 2018, Gary ranks near the top of the league in every relevant offensive category for catchers. He has been one of the most productive catchers in the sport since he entered the league in late 2016, and it’s worth remembering that his counting stats are limited by injury and the fact that he played only two months in 2016. It’s simply dishonest to pretend Gary is anything but one of baseball’s most talented and productive catchers.

What to Expect

Count me among Gary’s believers. I fully expect him to return to form in 2019, providing the Yankees with the superior production we expected in 2018. For what they’re worth, ZiPS projects .246/.323/.499 (120 wRC+) out of Gary, and PECOTA similarly projects .254/.332/.473 (113 DRC+). These numbers reflect the fact his underlying peripherals (his batted ball profile, power and longer-term production) remain strong and that his true talent level is far higher than what we saw in 2018.

Development is not linear—as Robinson Cano’s 2008 demonstrates—and Gary’s 2018 was injury-riddled to boot. When fully healthy, Gary has proven that he is one of baseball’s most dominant offensive backstops, and the advanced metrics prove that he is above-average defensively, too. The Yankees absolutely love him (and have since he was 16) and have stood by him through thick and thin. That means that we should be confident that Gary will be Gary once more in 2019, reminding Yankee fans why we are all so fortunate to root for a team with him behind the dish.

Spring Training Game Thread: Win it for Sevy

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I blame MLB The Show’s facial scan people for Severino’s injury. (Presswire)

I know it’s only a meaningless Spring Training game, but damn yo, the Yankees lost their ace to a shoulder injury yesterday. Avenge the shoulder inflammation gods with a Grapefruit League win today! In all seriousness, damn, losing Severino stinks. Even if it is only two weeks and he’s perfectly fine afterward, not having him for the start of the regular season hurts. Sucks. What can you do.

Anyway, the Yankees are back in action this afternoon, with possible Severino replacement Jonathan Loaisiga on the mound. It is open competition time. Loaisiga, Luis Cessa, and Domingo German are all pitching for a spot in the big league rotation now. Also, DJ LeMahieu is playing third base again, and Aroldis Chapman will make his second spring appearance. Lots going on today. Here is the Cardinals’ lineup and here are the players the Yankees will use:

  1. CF Brett Gardner
  2. RF Aaron Judge
  3. DH Giancarlo Stanton
  4. 1B Greg Bird
  5. SS Gleyber Torres
  6. 3B DJ LeMahieu
  7. LF Clint Frazier
  8. C Austin Romine
  9. 2B Tyler Wade

RHP Jonathan Loaisiga

Available Position Players: C Kellin Deglan, C Francisco Diaz, C Ryan Lavarnway, C Jorge Saez, 1B Mike Ford, IF Oswaldo Cabrera, IF Thairo Estrada, IF Wilkerman Garcia, IF Kyle Holder, OF Trey Amburgey, OF Billy Burns, OF Estevan Florial, OF Matt Lipka, OF Ben Ruta. Cabrera, Garcia, and Ruta are up from minor league camp for the day.

Available Pitchers: LHP Aroldis Chapman, RHP Cale Coshow, LHP Danny Coulombe, LHP Phil Diehl, RHP Joe Harvey, RHP Jose Mesa Jr., LHP James Reeves, RHP Adonis Rosa. Mesa, Reeves, and Rosa are extra arms from minor league camp.

It is sunny but on the chilly side in Tampa today. Temperatures will be in the upper-50s/lower-60s for today’s game. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm ET and you can watch live on YES and MLB.tv. There are no MLB.tv blackouts in Spring Training. Enjoy the game, folks.