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Devil’s Advocate: The Yankees were smart to pass on Manny Machado and Bryce Harper

March 4, 2019 by Mike

Let me preface this by saying I think the Yankees made a mistake not signing Manny Machado and/or Bryce Harper. Star-caliber players in their mid-20s are among the most valuable commodities in the sport and they are damn near impossible to acquire. Here were two available for cash, and the Yankees passed despite having a cheap homegrown core and resetting their luxury tax rate last year.

Scott Boras, Harper’s agent, told Ken Davidoff the Yankees were “really never a thought because we knew going in, because of the structure of the game, only certain houses were to be looked at as far as potentials,” whatever that means. In recent days both Brian Cashman and Aaron Boone gave a flat “no” response when asked whether Harper was ever a real possibility for the Yankees. From David Lennon:

“I’m closing the chapter on these questions about high-end free agency in the winter,” Cashman said before Sunday’s game at Steinbrenner Field. “I feel like we’ve vetted that enough. Sorry. I’d rather focus on the here and now, and the real rather than the unreal.”

…

“We’re obviously up and running with what we’ve got,” Cashman said. “We’re excited about what we got, and how a lot of it looks like now, and hoping that’s enough. But you’re always looking to improve over the course of time, if it’s within certain parameters on both ends. So, obviously between now and Aug. 31, we’ll continue to evaluate all opportunities.”

The Yankees are going to win a lot of games — a lot of games — this season and in future seasons as well. They’re loaded with talent and their best players are all either in their prime or approaching it. I still believe passing on Machado and Harper was a mistake, and not a small one either. There is always room for improvement and both guys would’ve easily fit into the lineup. This past offseason will be relitigated many times in the future. Get ready for it.

Anyway, because this is a full service blog and I try to present #bothsides whenever possible, I figured it was time to explore why the Yankees were smart to pass on Machado and Harper. Some reasons are more believable than others, but hey, they are all potential reasons. Here’s why the Yankees were smart to not sign two 26-year-old superstars and make themselves the clear-cut best team in baseball.

1. Harper’s contact rate is trending down. His contact rate on pitches in the strike zone is trending down, specifically. Hitters all around baseball are making less and less contact because the pitching is so good, but, in Harper’s case, he has swung through a ton of pitches out over the plate over the last year and change. I mean, look:

Harper’s raw power is thunderous. He can hit the ball as far as anyone in baseball. But, over the last year, year and a half, he is missing the pitches he should be clobbering more and more often. Harper’s plate discipline is exceptional. The guy has a 17.4% walk rate the last four years. (Aaron Judge has a 17.2% walk rate the last two years, for comparison.) He gets himself into good hitter’s counts. He just isn’t capitalizing as much as he should be.

To be fair to Harper, the league average contact rate on pitches in the zone has gone from 87.1% in 2015 to 85.6% in 2018. Like I said, pitching is ridiculously good right now. Harper’s in-zone contact rate sat at 78.0% last year. That ranked 137th among the 140 hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. Hmmm.

2. Machado is sort of a jerk. Machado’s comments about not being “Johnny Hustle” and running out grounders not being “my cup of tea” got a lot of play over the winter and I totally get it. Jogging out routine ground balls doesn’t bother me much though. Yes, it would be nice to see Machado and every other player run out every grounder (especially in the postseason!), but it’s just not going to happen.

The hustle comments overshadowed some dirty at best and intentionally dangerous at worst plays last postseason. Most notably, Machado straight up kicked Jesus Aguilar in the ankle at first base during the NLCS. You’ve seen this by now:

Manny Machado kicked Jesús Aguilar. Many #takes will follow. pic.twitter.com/uMopidt8IJ

— Fabian Ardaya (@FabianArdaya) October 17, 2018

I don’t know how anyone could watch that and see it as anything other than an intent to injure. Machado didn’t take a misstep and the throw didn’t take Aguilar into Machado’s path. He went out of his way to kick him as he ran through first base. That is dirty as hell. I reckon something like that would’ve earned Machado a fastball to the ribs had it happened during the regular season. We’ll see what happens when the Padres play the Brewers this year.

Everyone has a bad day now and then, but, in Machado’s case, it’s impossible to dismiss this as a bad day given his history. He tried to throw a bat at a pitcher. He got into it with Josh Donaldson. He spiked Dustin Pedroia. I honestly believe the Pedroia thing was an accident. Machado hit the bag hard and his foot popped up, and Pedroia’s calf was in the wrong place at the wrong time. That said, Manny hasn’t earned the benefit of the doubt.

The Yankees go to great lengths to ensure they have a good clubhouse culture — to be fair to Machado, has anyone ever said he’s a bad teammate? (quite the opposite, in fact) — and even if Machado were a model citizen with the Yankees, his reputation is established and it will follow him. He would be asked about it, his teammates would be asked about it, Boone and the coaches would be asked about it. Even on his best behavior, Machado would be a distraction.

3. Harper is falling victim to the shift. Remember how frustrating it was to watch Mark Teixeira and Brian McCann pulled grounder after grounder into the shift all those years? Harper is not quite at that level yet, but he is seeing more and more shifts with each passing year. The numbers:

2015: 19.3% plate appearances with the shift
2016: 36.5%
2017: 38.8%
2018: 41.4%

I guess teams finally started to pay attention after Harper’s historically great MVP season in 2015. Over the last three seasons Harper has an 82 wRC+ with the shift. That is: bad. He is seeing the shift more and more often with each passing season and, well, you do the math. Harper had a sub-.250 batting average in two of the last three seasons (.243 in 2016 and .249 in 2018) and the shift is a major reason why. Unless baseball outlaws the shift, which is certainly possible, Harper is only going to see it more often going forward.

4. Machado’s on-base skills aren’t elite. The power and contact ability are certainly elite, few players strike out as little as Machado while hitting for that much power, but the on-base percentage leaves you wanting more. Since breaking out as a bona fide star four years ago, Machado’s posted a .345 OBP in over 2,800 plate appearances, and his career high is a .367 OBP last year. Manny isn’t shy about chasing pitches out of the zone:

The okay but not great plate discipline — Machado is not an extreme hacker, but he isn’t up there looking to walk — is a reason why, despite the contact ability and 142 homers the last four years, Machado’s very best offensive season (141 wRC+ in 2018) is only roughly as good as Giancarlo Stanton’s average season (142 wRC+). Simply put, a player who doesn’t walk much has less margin for the error. If the batting average isn’t there, the offensive value can plummet quick. (That applies to Miguel Andujar, it should be noted.)

5. Both have injury histories. The best predictor of future injury is past injury and both Harper and Machado have an injury history. In Machado’s case, he had surgery on both knees in the span of a few months back in 2013-14. They were non-contact injuries — he hurt his right knee running through first base and his left knee taking a swing — that required a lengthy rehab. To Machado’s credit, he’s played in 637 of 648 possible games the last four years, so the knees have given him no trouble since. Still, two knee surgeries is bad news.

As for Harper, his injury history is more diverse and the injuries have typically been the result of aggressive play. He banged up his knee crashing into the wall in 2013 and played hurt throughout the second half. He tore ligaments in his thumb on an aggressive slide and required surgery in 2014. In 2017 he slipped on a wet base and hyperextended his knee. I remember watching the play live and thinking his knee was destroyed. Somehow he escaped with no fracture or ligament damage. Crazy. Harper has missed 140 games the last five years, roughly a full season’s worth.

Machado’s knees are kinda scary — how much longer does he have at third base (or shortstop) before his legs send him to a less demanding position? — and, in Harper’s case, he played a cautious outfield last year, likely out of self-preservation. There were no dives or crashing into the wall. On one hand, he stayed healthy, and that’s good. On the other, his defensive numbers went in the tank. Point is, we’re talking about very long-term contracts and players with injury histories that can’t be ignored.

6. The Yankees do have a budget. Joel Sherman recently reported Hal Steinbrenner set a $220M or so luxury tax payroll limit for Opening Day. Complain about that number all you want — and believe me, I do (why has payroll not increased at all in nearly ten years? am I really supposed to believe operating costs have climbed to the point where they cancel out all the additional revenue?) — but the fact of the matter is Cashman and his baseball operations folks had to operate around that budget.

Cot’s has the 2019 payroll at $222.4M for luxury tax purposes at the moment. We could play the “don’t sign Brett Gardner, DJ LeMahieu, and Adam Ottavino and they could’ve afforded Harper at his luxury tax number instead!” game until we’re blue in the face, but that leaves the Yankees short an infielder and a reliever. No Gardner, no LeMahieu, and no Zack Britton is enough to afford Machado, but again, it leaves roster holes elsewhere. Dollars and roster spots are not unlimited resources, and the Yankees opted to use their money to upgrade as many roster spots as possible rather than land that one big fish. The 2013 Red Sox won a World Series that way.

Also, this applies long-term as well. The Yankees will have to pay Aaron Judge enormous arbitration raises starting next year. Keeping Aaron Hicks long-term was a priority. Locking up Didi Gregorius and Dellin Betances is presumably next on the agenda. I don’t know how we went from “young players are cheap, allowing teams to surround them with free agents” to “young players are cheap, but they’ll be expensive eventually so you can’t sign anyone,” but we have. Bottom line: Every dollar the Yankees had given Machado or Harper is a dollar they couldn’t give someone else.

7. The Yankees know what they’re doing. Cashman and his staff have earned the benefit of the doubt. The Yankees are healthier as an organization now than they have been in years, probably since the late-1990s. The farm system is immensely productive and slam dunk trade wins like Hicks and Gregorius are the norm. I mean, seriously, when’s the last time the Yankees traded away a player they truly miss? I can’t remember. The baseball operations folks have more information than us and they’re much smarter than us, and they opted to pass on Machado and Harper.

* * *

Like I said earlier, I think the Yankees made a mistake passing on Machado and Harper. Even with the warts, they are insanely productive and only now entering what should be the prime of their careers, which aligns perfectly with the team’s championship window. The Yankees should always and forever be in on players like this. What I think doesn’t matter though. The Yankees have a budget, and squint your eyes and you can find red flags with Harper and Machado. Also, the Yankees are pretty good at this team-building thing, and they deserve the benefit of the doubt. Hopefully passing on these two is not something they come to regret.

Gleyber Torres and continuing down the path to greatness [2019 Season Preview]

March 4, 2019 by Mike

The Yankees have really spoiled us. In each of the last three seasons they’ve brought up a highly regarded prospect who immediately produced. It was Gary Sanchez and his two-month assault on American League pitching in 2016. In 2017, it was Aaron Judge rewriting the rookie record books. Last year it was Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres, who finished second and third in the Rookie of the Year voting, respectively.

Torres was the most heralded prospect of the quartet and he was also the youngest at the time of his MLB debut, by almost a full year:

Judge: 24 years, 109 days
Sanchez: 22 years, 305 days
Andujar: 22 years, 118 days
Torres: 21 years, 130 days

Last season Torres became only the sixth middle infielder this century to put up +3 WAR at age 21 or younger, joining Ozzie Albies, Elvis Andrus, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, and Starlin Castro. He’s only the second Yankees middle infielder ever to do it, joining Willie Randolph. The last five middle infielders with a 118 OPS+ or better at age 21 or younger is a hell of a list (min. 450 plate appearances):

2018 Gleyber Torres (118 OPS+ in 484 plate appearances)
2016 Carlos Correa (124 OPS+ in 660 plate appearances)
1997 Alex Rodriguez (120 OPS+ in 638 plate appearances)
1996 Alex Rodriguez (161 OPS+ in 677 plate appearances)
1965 Joe Morgan (131 OPS+ in 708 plate appearances)

Gleyber came up last season and more than lived up to the hype. He hit .271/.340/.480 (120 wRC+) with 24 home runs — Torres hit 24 home runs in 373 career minor league games — with overall solid defense despite some dopey errors. In big spots, Torres was someone the Yankees wanted at the plate. He hit .309/.368/.589 (147 wRC+) with runners in scoring position and .475/.512/.875 (275 wRC+) in high-leverage situations. Golly.

Although he was a well-regarded prospect, Gleyber’s production was a pleasant surprise last year. I’m not sure you could ever count on a 21-year-old coming up and doing what he did last year, especially in New York and in the middle of a postseason race. It was impressive. This year Torres will be on the Opening Day roster and make the transition from pleasant surprise to expected contributor. Let’s preview his upcoming sophomore season.

What can Torres improve?

Well, a lot of things. Players never stop trying to get better and a kid this age and with this little big league experience has plenty of room to grown. As good as Torres is, to me there are three key areas that stand out as places he can get better this season, and going forward in general.

1. Fewer errors, please. At times Gleyber will leave you shaking your head with his defense. He has good range and a strong arm, enough to make plays like this on the regular:

Torres is also weirdly error prone. He made 17 errors last season, more than all but ten players in baseball, and 12 of the 17 were either fielding errors or missed catches. (The other five were throwing errors.) Every infielder throws a ball away from time to time. It happens. The 12 non-throwing errors usually left everyone wondering what in the world happened though. Routine grounders he muffed, relays that he bobbled, things like that.

Andujar is a poor defender and it is clear his issues are physical. He sometimes stumbles over his own feet and often double-clutches on his throws, robbing him of time and accuracy. Those are physical issues. Torres doesn’t lack the tools physically, which is a big reason why the error total is so baffling. The tools are there. He makes enough highlight plays to show us there’s a better defender in there.

Fair or not, the lack of an obvious physical deficiency and the propensity for errors create questions about focus. “He takes plays off,” is something you’ll commonly hear in these situations. The jump from Triple-A to the big leagues is a big one. The game us much faster up here, especially on the infield. My hope is Torres will be less error prone going forward simply because he has more experience now, and knows what to expect.

2. Smarter baserunning, please. Torres was a shockingly bad baserunner last year. Some of it was youthful exuberance. Getting thrown out trying to stretch a single into a double, that sorta thing. There were also a lot of poor decisions mixed in there though. Gleyber took the extra base (first-to-third on a single, etc.) as often as a slow-footed catcher last year (not kidding) and some of his slides were cringe-worthy. They were flops more than slides.

Statcast’s sprint speed says Torres is almost perfectly average as a runner. He’s not a burner nor is he a baseclogger. I don’t know if the baserunning issues stem from poor instincts or poor instruction or something else. Whatever it is, Gleyber was a net negative on the bases last year, which took a bite out of his overall value. If you’re going to be bad at something, baserunning is a good thing to be bad at. Even the best/worst baserunners only add/subtract a few runs with their legs across a full 162-game season. Still, there’s room for Torres to improve on the bases going forward. No doubt.

3. Tighten up the strike zone discipline. To me, this is something that can and should improve with experience. Plate discipline tends to improve with age. Last season Torres walked in 8.7% of his plate appearances, almost exactly league average, though his 33.4% chase rate was a bit higher than the 30.4% league average. There was a chase rate spike at midseason when Gleyber went through a slump:

Plate discipline is not about drawing walks. Walks are a byproduct but not the goal. As he tightens up his strike zone discipline, Torres will see more hitter’s counts and thus get some better pitches to hit. That’s the real goal here. To get pitches in the strike zone to drive. He was very good last year even when expanding the zone from time to time. With a little more discipline, he’ll be even better.

Gleyber struck out in 25.2% of his plate appearances last season but, to me, he does not look like a true talent 25% strikeout guy at all. The tools and innate hitting ability are there for Torres to eventually get his strikeout rate down into the teens. It may take a year or two. These things don’t happen overnight. A 21-year-old kid chasing out of the zone is not the most surprising thing in the world. I hope to see fewer chases this year. Once the plate discipline really clicks, Torres is going to explode offensively.

Will he move to the top of the lineup?

Barring a Brett Gardner resurgence, the Yankees only have one profile leadoff hitter on the roster, and that player also happens to be their best left-handed bat. With a healthy Didi Gregorius, I don’t think there’s any question Aaron Hicks would hit atop the lineup on an everyday basis. With Gregorius out, Hicks may wind up hitting third between Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, creating a void at leadoff.

Aaron Boone mentioned Torres as a potential leadoff hitter last month without making it sound like a serious consideration. His tone indicated it is something he’d be open to doing but not permanently. The batting order is never set in stone, however. It changes throughout the season, and if Torres continues to produce at an above-average rate and tightens up his plate discipline, he’s as good a leadoff candidate as anyone on the roster.

Last year Gleyber received more plate appearances in the No. 9 spot (41.1%) than anywhere else in the lineup, and you know what? I am perfectly fine with that. It’s not like the Yankees were short on guys to hit higher up, plus he was a 21-year-old rookie, and letting him settle into things at the bottom of the order is not unreasonable. Remember when Torres slumped at midseason? Imagine if that happened after he’d been pushed to the top of the lineup. It would’ve become A Thing.

In year two the Yankees should be — and will be, I believe — more willing to bat Torres near the top of the lineup. Since batting Judge and Stanton back-to-back doesn’t appear to be something the Yankees want to do, sticking Hicks between them with Torres leading off makes sense. His poor baserunning is not a good fit for the leadoff spot, I know, but his on-base ability and everything else he brings to the table is. My hunch is Gleyber will, at the very least, force the Yankees to seriously consider moving him to the leadoff spot at some point in 2019.

* * *

Torres will play the entire 2019 season at age 22 and, technically, this will be his first full big league season. He was in Triple-A just long enough last year to ~~push his free agency back~~ shake off the rust following Tommy John surgery. Torres is unbelievably talented and thus far he’s lived up to the hype associated with his prospect ranking. Bumps in the road are inevitable with players this age. In Gleyber’s case, it felt like he was only scratching the surface last year. This season he’ll take another step toward becoming one of the game’s truly elite players.

Fan Confidence Poll: March 4th, 2019

March 4, 2019 by Mike

Spring Training Record: 4-4-1 (46 RS, 45 RA)
Spring Training Schedule This Week: Monday OFF; Tuesday vs. Braves (YES, MLB.tv); Wednesday vs. Cardinals (YES, MLB.tv); Thursday at Phillies (MLB.tv); Friday vs. Tigers (YES, MLB.tv); Saturday at Orioles (MLB.tv); Sunday vs. Pirates (ss) (no TV); Sunday at Tigers (ss) (no TV)

March 3rd Spring Training Notes: Gardner, Frazier, Betances, Hicks, Sabathia

March 3, 2019 by Mike

The split squad Yankees beat the Tigers at home this afternoon. Brett Gardner had two homers (both against a lefty), Aaron Judge had two homers, and Gary Sanchez and Isiah Gilliam had one homer each. Gilliam’s had the most distance. It went to the opposite field side of dead center and landed at the back of the elevated concourse. Masahiro Tanaka twirled three scoreless innings, Zack Britton and Adam Ottavino each tossed a scoreless inning, and Aroldis Chapman gave up a solo homer in his inning. Here are the box score and video highlights for the home game.

Meanwhile, on the road, the other Yankees lost to the Blue Jays. Luke Voit clubbed a home run and DJ LeMahieu went 1-for-4 with a single. That’s about all there is to see offensively. Domingo German looked really good in his 2.2 scoreless innings. He struck out four. Trevor Stephan got tagged for four runs (three earned) in 1.1 innings. He has a 27.00 ERA this spring. Ouch. Here are the box score and video highlights for the road game, and here are the rest of the day’s notes from Tampa:

Brett Gardner (home game) and Clint Frazier (road game) both exited today’s game after being hit by a pitch. They’re both okay. Gardner got hit by a curveball that spiked in front of the plate, jumped up, and hit him in the wrist. Geez, bad luck. Frazier took a fastball to the left forearm that then grazed his pinky. “I’m fine,” he said. [Lindsey Adler, Erik Boland]
Aaron Hicks had some back stiffness following Friday night’s game, so the Yankees held him out of batting practice and today’s game. Ugh only seven more years of this!!! (I kid, I kid.) Tomorrow’s an off-day, and the Yankees expect to get Hicks back in the lineup Tuesday. [Ken Davidoff]
Dellin Betances will make his Grapefruit League debut Tuesday. He and CC Sabathia are the only members of the projected Opening Day roster who’ve yet to appear in a game this spring. Sabathia’s being brought along slowly and Betances reported to camp a few days late after his wife gave birth to their first child. [George King]
Busy bullpen day today. Sabathia, Luis Severino, James Paxton, Tommy Kahnle, Chad Green, and Jonathan Loaisiga all threw bullpen sessions and Domingo Acevedo was among those to throw a simulated game. This was Sabathia’s second bullpen of the spring. [Randy Miller, Pete Caldera]

Tomorrow is the Yankees’ first off-day of the Grapefruit League season and it’ll be a complete off-day. There are no scheduled workouts. The Yankees will be back at it Tuesday afternoon at home against the Braves. That’ll be Severino’s spring debut. The game will be televised live on YES and MLB.tv.

Spring Training Game Thread: Two Games Are Better Than One

March 3, 2019 by Mike

After nearly a week of waiting, the Yankees are back on television today. They have not played a televised game since Monday — Tuesday’s game was supposed to be televised, but it was rained out — and our reward for going this long without the Yankees is a pair of televised split squad contests today. Half the team stayed in Tampa to play the Tigers and the other half made the half-hour bus trip to take on the Blue Jays in Dunedin.

Most of the regulars are staying in Tampa (duh). We’re entering the second week of spring games now and that means the veteran relievers are beginning to make their way into games. Accordingly, Aroldis Chapman will make his spring debut this afternoon. We’ll also get to see Adam Ottavino on the mound for the first time this spring, though it is his second Grapefruit League appearance. Here is the Tigers’ lineup and here are the players the Yankees will use at home today:

LF Brett Gardner
DH Aaron Judge
RF Giancarlo Stanton
C Gary Sanchez
3B Miguel Andujar
1B Greg Bird
CF Estevan Florial
2B Thairo Estrada
SS Kyle Holder

RHP Masahiro Tanaka

Available Position Players: C Francisco Diaz, C Ryan Lavarnway, IF Angel Aguilar, IF Diego Castillo, IF L.J. Mazzilli, IF Wendell Rijo, 1B/3B Dermis Garcia, 1B/OF Ryan McBroom, OF Trey Amburgey, OF Rashad Crawford, OF Isiah Gilliam, OF Ben Ruta. Diaz, Lavarnway, and Amburgey are in big league camp as non-roster invitees. Everyone else is up from minor league camp for the split squad games.

Available Pitchers: RHP Albert Abreu, LHP Zach Britton, LHP Rex Brothers, LHP Aroldis Chapman, LHP Nestor Cortes, RHP Jonathan Holder, RHP Jose Mesa Jr., RHP Adam Ottavino, LHP James Reeves, RHP Adonis Rosa. Reeves, Rosa, and Joe Table II are up from minor league camp for the day.

Meanwhile, over in Dunedin, DJ LeMahieu is going to play third base for the first time in a televised game today, so it’ll be our first look at him at the hot corner. He’s played one other game there this spring. It was his first game action at a position other than second base since 2014. The Yankees are planning to use LeMahieu as a utility guy, albeit one who plays nearly every day, so he’s spending the spring get reacquainted to first and third bases. Here is the Blue Jays’ lineup (Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is playing) and here are the players the Yankees sent on the road:

2B Tyler Wade
3B DJ LeMahieu
SS Gleyber Torres
1B Luke Voit
LF Clint Frazier
DH Mike Ford
C Kyle Higashioka
CF Matt Lipka
RF Billy Burns

RHP Domingo German

Available Position Players: C Kellin Deglan, C Jorge Saez, 1B Chris Gittens, IF Oswaldo Cabrera, IF Wilkerman Garcia, IF Gosuke Katoh, IF Hoy Jun Park, OF Jeff Hendrix, OF Jhalan Jackson, OF Pablo Olivares, OF Zack Zehner. Deglan and Saez are non-roster players this spring. Everyone else is up from minor league camp to make the road trip for the split squad game.

Available Pitchers: RHP Cale Coshow, LHP Danny Coulombe, RHP Matt Frawley, RHP Drew Hutchison, LHP Anderson Severino, RHP Trevor Stephan, RHP David Sosebee, RHP Greg Weissert. Frawley, Severino (no relation to Luis), Sosebee, and Weissert are the extra arms from minor league camp.

It is warm but not oppressively humid in both Tampa and Dunedin today. Good afternoon to spend at the ballpark. The home game will begin at 1:05pm ET and you can watch live on YES and MLB.tv. The road game begins at 1:07pm ET and MLB.tv will have that one. There are no MLB.tv blackouts in Spring Training. You can watch both games at the same time. Enjoy.

In-Cessa-nt Optimism

March 3, 2019 by Matt Imbrogno

How many more Cessa starts do we have to watch? (Getty Images)

Perhaps it’s one that we’ve talked ourselves into because of its inherent logic, but a truism for the Yankees heading into Spring Training is that Luis Cessa is going to get one of the final two bullpen jobs up for grabs. This makes sense because he is out of options and even if it is the last player or two on the team, why lose a guy for (probably) nothing? Furthermore, if it doesn’t work out, it is the last slot or two on the team, something not hard to replace. In addition to the logic of the situation, though, Cessa does appear to be earning his roster spot.

The Yankees have shown a lot of patience with Cessa and given him chance after chance to prove himself. The results have been mixed, but that might be a bit generous; he’s only infrequently looked like a Major League quality pitcher. Counting on him as starting pitching depth–even with Jordan Montgomery out–is probably out of the question now and that could be the best thing for his career.

It hearkens back to the days of the Joba Chamberlain: Starter or Reliever? debates, but it still comes out pretty true: pitchers’ stuff plays up in the bullpen. Being able to let loose for an inning or two is going to make your stuff look better. Just look at Chad Green, for example. Would he be able to get away with such a fastball heavy attack in the starting rotation? Of course not. Cessa’s fastball, meanwhile, is already pretty solid in terms of velocity. Brooks has him averaging just over 95 on the heater for his career. Airing it out in relief could add a tick or two to that, making it that much harder to hit.

Moving to the bullpen would also allow Cessa to drop his curve and changeup and focus on a two pitch fastball/slider arsenal. His slider–his second most frequently used pitch–already has about a ten MPH drop from his fastball. That difference could be even more stark and effective in the bullpen in short outings. Aside from simplifying and amping up, there’s something in Cessa’s career performance that points to potential success in the bullpen.

Like almost every pitcher to ever throw an inning, Cessa does his best work when facing a hitter the first time. Whether it’s as a starter (.688 OPS against) or reliever (.695 OPS against), his best marks show up in his first matchup with an opponent. The drop offs get pretty stark, too. Against hitters a second time as a starter, his OPS against bumps all the way up to .811. As a reliever? .841. His pitch count numbers tell a similar tale. His OPS against is .717 in pitch numbers 1-25. It jumps up to .806 for 26-50 and .812 for 51-75. It gets just under .800 (.796) in pitches 76+.

The clear part is that Cessa most likely belongs in the bullpen, where he can limit his exposure to batters and jump his stuff up a notch or two. What role, then, should he play in the bullpen? The ‘first time’ numbers suggest he could get away with facing a lineup once through while his pitch count numbers suggest he’s better off in a short outing of just one inning. The former is likely more valuable to the team, but the latter is one where he’s more likely to be successful. Either way, Cessa should start out in mop up, low leverage situations as he attempts to adjust his repertoire to a new role. If he can nail things down on an inning-by-inning basis, maybe he could be put into a multi-inning role.

Luis Cessa hasn’t quite reached the end of the line with the Yankees, but being out of options and only marginally and infrequently successful means that end is coming up quick. 2019 will be the year that makes or breaks Cessa’s career and from the bullpen is where he’ll have to do it.

March 2nd Spring Training Notes: Gregorius, Diehl, Kahnle, Cessa, Severino, Positioning

March 2, 2019 by Mike

A ninth inning comeback fell short against the Pirates this afternoon. Danny Farquhar made his Grapefruit League debut and got hammered (five runs and one out), but who cares? It’s Spring Training and the guy nearly died last year. Farquhar’s family was in attendance and the crowd gave him a nice hand as he walked off the field. “Obviously the results weren’t great, but I’d call it a good day. I’ve never been high-fived so much for giving up five runs in my career,” he told Bryan Hoch after the game.

Luis Cessa started and allowed one run in three innings. He struck out four. Troy Tulowitzki, Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, Miguel Andujar, and Estevan Florial (two) all banged doubles. Tulowitzki and Bird have been great in the early going. Hopefully it lasts. Andujar had a single in addition to his double. Tyler Wade had a tough game, going 0-for-4. His lost 208 points of batting average in one day (.625 to .417). Here is the box score and here are today’s notes from Tampa:

Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery) is scheduled to see the doctor at some point in the next ten days. If everything checks out okay, he could be cleared to start swinging a bat two-handed. “Everything has gone really well,” said Aaron Boone. Sir Didi would start with dry swings and tee work, then progress from there. So far, so good though. [George King]
Lefty relief prospect Phil Diehl exited today’s game after taking a line drive to the upper back. He said he’s fine after the game except for the seams imprinted on his skin. Ouch. “He’s a tough kid. He’s fearless. I wasn’t surprised when I went out there and he’s like, ‘I’m fine,’ with a smile on his face. But he’s been one of those guys who’s really shined for us. He’s opened up some eyes,” said Boone. Diehl’s fanned seven of the 12 batters he’s faced this spring. [Lindsey Adler, Erik Boland]
Tommy Kahnle struck out all three batters he faced last night and Boone said he looks better now than he did at any point last year. His fastball was 95-97 mph last night, which is promising given that it is still early in Spring Training and his heater averaged 95.5 mph last year. [Bryan Hoch]
Boone said Cessa has a “real opportunity” to make the Opening Day roster as a long man. I’d like to see what he could do as one-inning air-it-out guy, but long reliever it is. Cessa would have to pass through waivers to go to Triple-A, which may factor into the roster decision. [Bryan Hoch]
Luis Severino will indeed make his Grapefruit League debut Tuesday. The Yankees held him back a bit this spring after his big workload the last two years. Tuesday’s start lines Severino up perfectly for Opening Day with an extra day of rest between each spring start. [Erik Boland]
The Yankees will have their infielders carry cards with positioning notes this year. Outfielders have done it for years. Now infielders will too. The Yankees were positioned well last year. Their numbers with the shift were pretty good. Boone called the cards a “little safety net” more than anything because communication from the dugout comes first. [Brendan Kuty]

The Yankees have a pair of split squad games tomorrow afternoon and, thankfully, both games will be televised live. It’s been almost a full week since the last Yankees broadcast. Masahiro Tanaka is starting at home against the Tigers while Domingo German gets the ball on the road against the Blue Jays.