River Avenue Blues

Thoughts four games into the Grapefruit League season

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(Presswire)

The Yankees are three games and one rainout into their Grapefruit League season and, so far, no one has gotten hurt. That’s the most important thing. It’s good to have baseball back. Baseball is much more fun to talk about than the hot stove. Here are some thoughts on the first few spring games.

1. It was one game and only a handful of innings, I know, but Troy Tulowitzki’s mobility at shortstop was pleasantly surprising. I’m not focused too much on the bat right now — seeing him drive an outside pitch into the Tampa short porch was certainly cool — because even the game’s best hitters are still working to find their swing in late-February, and Tulowitzki hasn’t played in so long that some level of rust is inevitable. The offensive numbers will be whatever. I’m not sweating them. We’ve been hearing Tulowitzki looks great during infield workouts for weeks now though, basically since the Yankees signed him, and that’s something we should see right away. Sure enough, Tulowitzki did this …

… and made several other nice plays as well. Nothing incredibly difficult, but those are the plays I was hoping to see Tulowitzki make. The guy is coming off an ankle injury and dual heel surgeries, plus he’s 34 and normal age-related decline has to be a consideration, so a lack of range and fluidity in the field wouldn’t have been the most shocking thing in the world. Instead, Tulowitzki moved around well. I was pleasantly surprised. Will it last? Who knows. Moving around the infield might not be so easy once the back-to-back-to-back days in the hot weather and the wear-and-tear begins to add up. For now, Tulowitzki looks good in the field, which I guess qualifies as a win. I am going to need to see a lot more — a lot more — before buying in. The defense (and dinger) made Monday’s game an overwhelmingly positive first impression though.

2. Luis Severino will throw a simulated game tomorrow and make his Grapefruit League debut early next week, likely Monday or Tuesday. The Yankees have taken it easy on Severino this spring, which makes sense given his age (25), his workload the last two years (407.2 innings, postseason included), and the fact the Yankees just signed him to a four-year extension. This is an arm worth protecting. “When you are at the finish line and you feel like you need a little bit more than five days to be ready, you know that something’s going on,” said Severino to Coley Harvey two weeks ago, referring to being fatigued late last year. So yeah, it’s smart to ease him into things. Anyway, Severino making his Grapefruit League debut Monday or Tuesday lines him up perfectly to start Opening Day. He’d make four spring starts with extra rest between each of them. The current spring rotation schedule lines up James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, and J.A. Happ to follow Severino in that order. That’s kinda what I’ve assumed the rotation order would be all winter. The Yankees haven’t announced the Opening Day rotation order yet because almost no team announces their Opening Day rotation order in February. Generally speaking though, it’s easy to pick up on the pitching plan early in the camp. The Yankees have Severino, Paxton, Tanaka, and Happ lined up as their first four starting pitchers for the regular season at this moment. Things can of course change over the next few weeks, but there you go. That’s the tentatively scheduled regular season rotation order.

3. Didn’t expect to see Tyler Wade flash some opposite field power this spring. He doubled twice to left field Sunday and I thought both had a chance to carry over the fence. Here’s the first one and here’s the second one. They came against actual big leaguers Tyler Glasnow and Yonny Chirinos too. Wade hitting two balls the other way with authority is notable. Here’s his 2013-18 minor league spray chart:

I count maybe a dozen balls hit deep to left field and left-center field in the six years worth of batted balls in that spray chart. Then two in two innings, against big leaguers? Even in Spring Training, I can’t say I saw that coming. During Monday’s broadcast Jack Curry said vice president of baseball operations Tim Naehring told him the Yankees see Wade as a “starting player in the Major Leagues for a contending team.” Maybe that’s just a team official talking up his own player — the Yankees did sign two veteran infielders to push Wade down the depth chart this offseason, after all — and, even if it’s not, the Yankees don’t have a starting spot for Wade. I think he’s the favorite to get the final bench spot because he can run like hell and play both the infield and outfield, which are good traits for the 12th and final position player on the 25-man roster. To me, Wade needs a fresh start with a new team. He is capital-B Blocked with the Yankees and, unless they let Didi Gregorius walk and move Miguel Andujar to first base (or left field), there is no obvious starting spot for Wade going forward. A fresh start with a new team is the best thing for him. The Marlins, Orioles, Tigers, and White Sox stand out as clubs that could roll the dice and be patient while a young middle infielder finds his way at the MLB level. For the Yankees, hanging on to Wade as a depth utility guy who can be shuttled up and down makes all the sense in the world. Wade will play the entire 2019 season at age 24 and maybe those two opposite field doubles are a sign the bat is coming around. Almost certainly not, but hey, who knows. I didn’t expect to see him drive the ball the other way like that, that’s for sure.

4. Greg Bird looks noticeably thicker this spring. He looks stronger throughout his chest and arms. Aaron Boone said Bird added 20 pounds of “good weight” over the winter — “Not super intentional, I ate and worked out. After the New Year I started lifting. If I am heavier and can move, I know I am in a good place,” said Bird to George King a few days ago — and you can see it. In theory, a little more upper body strength could help Bird get his bat through the zone quicker, which was a major issue last year. It’s not like he’s out there with a bodybuilder’s physique. He didn’t bulk up so much that his quickness and agility will suffer. All he did was add a little muscle and strength, which countless players do each offseason. In Bird’s case, it’s easy to see. I’ve been doing this long enough to know these “best shape of his life” stories are little more than early spring filler that almost always amount to nothing. He’ll have to do a lot more than add some weight and look stronger to win a roster spot — Bird slammed an opposite field double in the Grapefruit League opener only to have Luke Voit show him up with a long home run onto the roof of the concession stand the next day — but I see this as a good thing. His exit velocity (89.7 mph in 2017 and 86.9 mph in 2018) and hard-hit rate (41.1% in 2017 and 33.3% in 2018) were both way down last year. The added strength could help get Bird back on track. I hope it will, anyway.

5. Random minor leaguer who stood out to me: Daniel Alvarez. The 22-year-old right-hander threw scoreless seventh and eighth innings Sunday. Yes, he was facing minor leaguers, but the results are whatever. More importantly, the stuff looked good. Hitters didn’t get good wood on the fastball, the breaking ball looked spiffy, and Alvarez did a good job hitting the mitt for late-February.

Last season Alvarez threw 34.2 innings with a 1.30 ERA (1.66 FIP) and excellent strikeout (39.3%) and walk (5.9%) rates with Short Season Staten Island and Low-A Charleston. The Yankees signed him as an older international amateur a few years ago and he spun his wheels as a starter the last few seasons. They moved him to the bullpen full-time last year, his stuff ticked up a bit, and he took off. Chances are there’s nothing here and Alvarez is an organizational arm. Every once in a while one of these late-blooming starter-to-reliever conversion guys pitches his way to the big leagues though. Stephen Tarpley did it. Gio Gallegos did it as well. The late innings of early Spring Training games are filling with pitchers who are so obviously not big league caliber and maybe never will be. Alvarez is someone who stood out early and made me say “huh, maybe there’s something here.” I hope to see him come up from minor league camp to pitch at least one more time this spring, but I won’t hold my breath.

6. What’s everyone think about the pitch clock so far? You can barely even tell it’s in use, right? I mean, the clock itself is visible behind the plate at George M. Steinbrenner Field …

… but it’s not intrusive, and I imagine the same will be true at Yankee Stadium and big league parks. It’s good to have that information on the screen but I don’t think MLB or the individual teams want to shove it down our throats either. We’ll see what happens once more big leaguers start appearing in Grapefruit League games — Tanaka is one of the slowest workers in baseball, so I was looking to forward to seeing him with the pitch clock yesterday, but alas, the game was rained out — but so far, it seems to be business as usual, albeit with a little less standing around. That’s a good thing. That’s the entire point! The pitch clock outrage was always disproportionate to the pitch clock impact. You can hardly tell it’s there and the reduction in downtime adds up.

Update: Someone just pointed out to me the old YES Network score bug is back. You can see it in the pitch clock screen grab above. Thank goodness for that. I hope this is permanent and not just a Spring Training thing.

Feb. 26th Spring Training Notes: Sabathia, Betances, Sanchez, Andujar

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(Presswire)

The Yankees neither won nor lost nor tied today. Their afternoon game was rained out and will not be made up. Bummer. Masahiro Tanaka, today’s scheduled starter, instead threw 30 pitches and two simulated innings indoors, according to Bryan Hoch. He’ll make his next start as scheduled in five days. Here are the rest of the day’s notes:

  • CC Sabathia threw off a mound for the first time yesterday, though Aaron Boone called it “short.” Sabathia’s going to throw his first full bullpen session Friday. The Yankees are taking is slow with him this spring after his offseason routine was interrupted by his heart procedure. [Randy Miller]
  • Aroldis Chapman threw live batting practice yesterday and Dellin Betances did so today. It’s the first time they’ve faced hitters this spring. J.A. Happ, Jonathan Loaisiga, Luis Severino, and Trevor Stephen threw bullpen sessions. [Brendan Kuty, Mark Didtler]
  • Gary Sanchez (shoulder surgery) will likely make his Grapefruit League debut this Friday. Miguel Andujar (illness) will be back in the lineup tomorrow. Hopefully no one caught the bug from Andujar. [Erik Boland, Sweeny Murti]
  • Due to today’s rainout, Chance Adams will start tomorrow instead of Albert Abreu. Adams was scheduled to pitch today and Abreu will instead pitch in relief. Here is the travel roster for tomorrow’s game. [Bryan Hoch]

The Yankees will be on the road to face the Tigers tomorrow afternoon. That game won’t be televised. In fact, we won’t see the Yankees again until Sunday. The next few games won’t be televised. Lame.

What an Aaron Judge extension might look like

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(Presswire)

As we all know by now, Hal Steinbrenner decided not to back up the truck for this offseason’s free agent crop. However, Hal can’t avoid paying the piper forever. There are a litany of budding stars on the Yankees’ roster that are going to start getting a bit expensive for the owner’s taste if he doesn’t act soon. He and the front office took care of business with Luis Severino and Aaron Hicks already, but there are still other extension candidates. Let’s talk about Aaron Judge.

Maybe the Yankees will go year to year with Judge and let him test free agency after his age-30 season. That’s always possible. But the risk is that one of the other 29 clubs makes an offer that Judge won’t be able to refuse and Steinbrenner will be unwilling to match. Sound familiar? Yep, that’s what happened with Robinson Cano. Extension or not, it would be inexcusable to let the face of the franchise walk away in free agency (again), but that’s neither here nor there. Let’s stick to extension talk for the time being.

Other extensions to consider

Buster Posey: 9 years, $167 million

The Giants’ catcher was a super-two eligible player prior to 2013, but signed an $8 million deal to avoid an arbitration hearing. That deal was ripped up in order to sign an eight-year extension, thereby buying out four years of free agency. Posey was fresh off of an MVP 2012 season and still just 26 years-old, not to mention two World Series titles.

San Francisco paid Posey $57 million for his pre-free agency seasons. The rest of the contract calls for at least $110 million if his 2022 club option is decline and up to $129 million if exercised. Posey has accumulated around 30 WAR (depending on your version preference) since signing the deal. Is it safe to say he’s earned every penny? Yup, and then some. No regrets from San Francisco’s side. Posey probably could have earned more in free agency than 5 years and $110 million, but that’s still a pretty nice payday.

Mike Trout: 6 years, $144.5 million

Trout wasn’t a super-two like Posey, but signed his deal with two-plus years of major league service, where Judge is now. His deal didn’t kick in until after his third full season, so if you want to factor in his final pre-arb salary, it’s effectively a 7 year, $145.5 million deal. This, mind you, was after Trout racked up two straight 10 WAR seasons to start his career. The Angels struck a deal with the sport’s best player while pushing his free agency until after the 2020 season. Trout would have free to go after 2017 otherwise.

Trout got just under $45 million for his arbitration years and gave up three free agency seasons for another $100 million. Obviously, he would have shattered that amount if he hit the open market. To say that Trout got the short end of the stick would be an understatement. Yes, $144.5 million is a huge sum of money, but he would have shattered all sorts of salary records. Then again, he still might do that after 2020 when he’s just finished his age-28 year.

Structuring Judge’s deal

As great as Judge is, he doesn’t have the pedigree of either of the two aforementioned stars at the same time in their careers. That doesn’t mean he can’t match or exceed either of the guarantees Posey and Trout got.

Something I think we need to consider before getting into proposals are what Judge could possibly get in arbitration as an alternative to an extension. Here are the recent amounts players signed in their first year of arbitration eligibility:

  • 2018 Mookie Betts: $10.5M
  • 2018 Kris Bryant: $10.85M (Super Two)
  • 2019 Francisco Lindor: $10.85M

Mookie Betts holds the second year eligibility record ($20 million) and Josh Donaldson has the final year record ($23 million). If Judge matches all of these amounts, that’s about $53 million from 2020 through 2022. I’d bet he could beat that, though.

Alright, now let’s talk about some proposals:

Status Year Annual Salary Cumulative Salary
Pre-Arb 2019 $5M $5M
Arb 1 2020 $15M $20M
Arb 2 2021 $20M $40M
Arb 3 2022 $25M $65M
FA 1 2023 $35M $100M
FA 2 2024 $35M $135M
FA 3 2025 $35M $170M

First of all, this gets Judge up to $65 million in earnings through his arbitration seasons. That’s a win for Judge. From there, it’s a matter of seeing how many free agent years he’d be willing to give up.

Without an extension, Judge’s first free agent deal would begin in his age-31 campaign. My inclination is that he should get $35 million per year by then, but who knows. Not only is free agency a strange place now, but a lot can happen between now and then too. A payday now quells any worries about decline or injury affecting future earnings. Then again, maybe Judge isn’t too concerned about money. He got $1.8 million out of the draft. That’s not exorbitant, but if well managed could be sustainable if something cut short his career. Further, he’s got a marketing deal with Pepsi which certainly helps him monetarily. He could wait it out and bet on himself for an absolutely gargantuan payday.

When I think of the Yankees perspective, I can’t help but think about the luxury tax. It really bums me out that it’s a consideration here, but that’s how the team operates now. A potential extension would result in a higher tax now and in the arbitration years, but in theory, it wouldn’t be a huge increase because the team is in the lower tiers. It’s the outer years  of the extension that can save the Steinbrenners money because others like Gary Sanchez and Gleyber Torres will be getting their big paydays as well. Then again, a new CBA after 2021 could totally change the tax rules. Even though an extension provides cost certainty, Hal could be hesitant to pay extra luxury tax now without knowing what the system will be in Judge’s outer years.

Hal could use some goodwill. Signing Judge to an extension would help Hal with that. The stagnant payroll over the last decade has been a blight on the franchise even though he doesn’t feel that way. It would be nice to have some sort of assurance that the team’s stars aren’t going anywhere. I can’t help but be worried after watching the team pass up on superstar free agents this winter.

Final thoughts

There haven’t been any talks of an extension between the Yankees and Judge yet. The right fielder played it coy when asked about it, but hopefully it’s on the radar. Frankly, after passing on Machado and Harper, there’s absolutely no excuse not to pay someone like Judge. Hal has already mentioned the need to be sensible in advance of the baby bombers reaching higher earning years. It would be wise to be proactive rather than waiting until that day comes. Signing Severino was a good start. Hopefully Judge and others are next.

The recently extended center fielder [2019 Season Preview]

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(Presswire)

Patience has rewarded the Yankees with one of the best center fielders in baseball: Aaron Hicks. Despite a brutal first season in pinstripes, the team stuck with the former first round pick. It would have been easy to cut ties with him, citing an extensive track record without success, but he got another opportunity in 2017 and ran with it. Since that year, the only two center fielders with more WAR than Hicks are Mike Trout and Lorenzo Cain.

2019 could have been Hicks’s final year in New York, but that was quashed once the two sides agreed to an extension on Monday. He’ll be roaming the outfield for the next seven seasons and earn $70 million while doing so. The 29 year-old probably would have been paid more than that on the open market, provided that he sustained his recent success this summer.

With the extension out of the way, Hicks can keep his focus on this season without pondering his future. At the very least, there’s no pressure to perform for a contract anymore. Maybe that wouldn’t have affected him anyway, but it’s seemingly a nice weight off his shoulders. That doesn’t mean there’s nothing left for him to prove, though.

As always, good health is key

It may not dawn on you at first glance, but Hicks is perhaps the team’s most well-rounded player. Offensively, he gets on base at a high rate and hits for power. Though he’s not a base stealer, he swipes his fair share of bags. He’s quite reliable in the outfield as well. What more could anyone ask for? If anything, the only thing preventing Hicks from being a complete player is…playing a complete season.

For whatever reason, Hicks has suffered a few muscle injuries over the past two years. He hit the disabled list twice in 2017 because of oblique strains and was shelved due to a hamstring pull early last year. 137 games played was a career high last season, but getting to 150 would be a nice step up. If there’s not much for him to improve upon in terms of ability, remaining on the field will allow him to add more production than ever before. Easier said than done, of course.

Health aside, if you squint, there’s one thing that would be nice for Hicks to improve: his batting average. BABIP appears to be the culprit. His career .270 BABIP seems low for a guy with his athleticism and hitting ability (he was in the 80th percentile for hard hit percentage last season, yet had a .264 BABIP). There’s got to be some bad luck in there, right? On the other hand, he’s nearing 2,000 career plate appearances, so maybe this is just who he is. Still, all it takes is a little good fortune one year to raise his batting average up to the .270s or .280s, instead of .248 last season. Of course, batting average is a bit archaic nowadays, but when you have someone who walked 15.5 percent of the time last year, on-base percentages north of .400 are attainable with a higher batting average. Maybe this year will be that year.

Lineup role

Hicks was all over the lineup card last season. First (31 games started), third (33), and sixth (28) were the most common slots for him. After hitting 27 home runs and recording a .219 isolated power last season, there’s no doubt that he’s capable of hitting in the heart of the order. But what he does best is get on base. For the Yankees, only Aaron Judge got aboard at a higher rate than Hicks did last season. It’ll be curious to see who gets the nod as the primary leadoff hitter this year, but we could see Hicks wind up in the role more than any of his teammates.

Only Andrew McCutchen had a lower chase rate than Hicks did last season, albeit in much less time. Hicks swung at only 18 percent of pitches outside of the zone, which was better than longtime table setter Brett Gardner (20.5 percent) and Judge (21 percent). Gardner essentially lost his job at the top of the order by the end of last season. Judge could be that guy this season, as Aaron Boone openly speculated, but Hicks has a very good case for himself. He’s incredibly patient and doesn’t go after bad pitches.

Hicks certainly is a capable three or six hitter, but putting him in front of Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, et. al. could become the play this year. His discipline would permit the big boppers to see a lot of pitches before stepping up to the plate, which could help them get a better look. Another benefit of Hicks at the top of the order is that he puts the ball in play quite a bit. So when he’s not walking, he’s also not striking out too often. That theoretically should result in more opportunities to get aboard, though as mentioned, his BABIP has been unimpressive. Nonetheless, I’d call Hicks’ spot in the lineup a thing to watch this year.

Projections

PECOTA: .255/.349/.434 (112 DRC+), -7.6 FRAA, and 2.4 WARP in 600 plate appearances

Steamer: .247/.348/.430 (113 wRC+), +1.4 Def, and 3.3 WAR in 586 plate appearances

ZiPS: .253/.354/.459 (116 OPS+), +3 Def, and 3.2 WAR in 507 plate appearances

All three systems have good things in store for Hicks, but I would probably bet the over on all of them. ZiPS seems the most in line with my expectations, as PECOTA and Steamer feel too low on Hicks’s power. The worrisome aspect of the ZiPS projection is the amount of plate appearances. 507 signals another season with time missed due to injury. Hicks did manage to reach 581 last season after never exceeding 390 in any year prior, so hopefully he builds on that.

Still, it’s understandable that the projections seem a tad low on Hicks. Remember, Hicks was really bad up until 2017. I think we’re all well aware that the 29 year-old has gotten past those poor early seasons, but these systems never forget (even if they weigh recent seasons more heavily). Even so, a three win season wouldn’t be a disappointment.

Final Thoughts

Doesn’t Hicks seem underappreciated? He’s one of baseball’s best center fielders, a premium position where talent isn’t easy to come by. Obviously, the Yankees value him highly even though they signed him for a bargain. Even after a bad year in 2016, the team didn’t give up on him. He’s always had loud tools, though it took a while for them to lead to results. Now that everything has clicked over the past couple of years, there’s little reason to believe that Hicks isn’t poised for another productive season.

Spring Training Game Thread: Tanaka’s First Start

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(Presswire)

The Grapefruit League season marches on and today we’ll see two important firsts: DJ LeMahieu at third base and Tommy Kahnle in general. LeMahieu has not played third base since 2014, not even in Spring Training, and even that was a small 38.1-inning sample. The Yankees are planning to use LeMahieu as a super utility infielder though, so third base is part of the job, and today’s our first chance to see him away from his familiar second base.

As for Kahnle, he’s making his spring debut today, and it’s an important spring for him. He is out of minor league options and that’s not enough to guarantee him an Opening Day bullpen spot. The Yankees have enough power arms to cast Kahnle aside if he’s not throwing like he did in 2017. The YES Network broadcast has velocity readings in Spring Training, though I don’t know how accurate they are. Still, a few 96s and 97s would be a welcome sight, even in late-February. Here is the Phillies’ lineup and here are the players the Yankees will use today:

  1. LF Brett Gardner
  2. DH Aaron Judge
  3. RF Giancarlo Stanton
  4. 1B Luke Voit
  5. 3B DJ LeMahieu
  6. C Austin Romine
  7. CF Estevan Florial
  8. SS Kyle Holder
  9. 2B Tyler Wade

RHP Masahiro Tanaka

Available Position Players: C Kellin Deglan, C Francisco Diaz, 1B Mike Ford, 1B Chris Gittens, IF Angel Aguilar, IF Thairo Estrada, IF Wilkerman Garcia, IF L.J. Mazzilli, OF Billy Burns, OF Rashad Crawford, OF Clint Frazier, OF Matt Lipka. Gittens, Aguilar, Garcia, Mazzilli, and Crawford are up from minor league camp for the day.

Available Pitchers: RHP Chance Adams, LHP Zack Britton, LHP Rex Brothers, RHP Cale Coshow, LHP Danny Coulombe, RHP Tommy Kahnle, RHP Brady Lail, LHP Stephen Tarpley.

Bad news: There’s rain in the forecast today. Quite a bit, actually. It’s really supposed to pick up not long after first pitch, and once the heavy stuff starts, it’s not supposed to stop until sometime later tonight. Today’s game might be a short one. That’d stink. Anyway, today’s game is scheduled to begin at 1:05pm ET and you can watch on YES and MLB.tv live. There are no MLB.tv blackouts in Spring Training. Enjoy the game.

Update (12:45pm ET): Well, so much for that. Today’s game has been rained out, the Yankees announced. It won’t be made up because lol at making up a Spring Training game. Too bad one of the televised games was rained out. The team’s next broadcast is not until Sunday.

Thoughts after the Yankees sign Aaron Hicks to a seven-year contract extension

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(Presswire)

Extension season is in full swing. Yesterday the Yankees somewhat surprisingly signed impending free agent Aaron Hicks to a seven-year, $70M contract with an eighth year club option. That comes after the Yankees signed Luis Severino to a four-year, $40M contract with a fifth year club option two weeks ago. Safe to say the team’s archaic “no extensions” policy is no more. Anyway, I have some thoughts on the Hicks deal, so let’s get to ’em.

1. I say the signing is somewhat surprising for two reasons: Term and money. Seven years? Didn’t see that coming, even though the contract begins right away and is effectively a six-year, $64M extension on top of the one-year, $6M deal Hicks signed to avoid arbitration last month. Long-term contracts are supposed to be big and scary these days, so much so that free agent spending has ground to a halt, yet here’s a seven-year deal covering a player’s age 29-35 seasons, with an option for his age 36 season. Huh. As for the money, getting Hicks at $10M annually is shocking. I can’t believe the average annual value is that low. Here are the center field contract comparables:

  • Dexter Fowler: $16.5M annually across five years (signed prior to age 31 season)
  • Lorenzo Cain: $16M annually across five years (signed prior to age 32 season)
  • A.J. Pollock: $13.75M annually across four years (signed prior to age 31 season)

I wrote about the recent Pollock signing setting the market for Hicks not too long ago. Hicks has been the better player the last two years and he’s two years younger than Pollock, yet he signed for only $15M more in guaranteed money, and that $15M is spread across three more guaranteed years. The Yankees were really able to sign a player of this caliber for $10M annually? I mean, we’re talking about a 29-year-old +5 WAR switch-hitting center fielder one year before free agency. For reference, Brett Gardner will earn $9.5M this year between his salary and option buyout. In the ol’ wild west days when teams spent real money, Hicks would’ve been a $100M player. He winds up with Fowler/Cain/Pollock total money but across more years. Teams are squeezing free agents so much that players are now jumping on team friendly extensions below market value. It was inevitable. I will never ever blame a player for taking the money. Good for Hicks. He set himself and newborn Aaron Jr. up for life. It’s just that, two or three years ago, Hicks would’ve signed for more money and not as many years. There’s little doubt the slow free agent market contributed to his decision to take the money and pass on testing the open market.

2. According to the unadjusted $/WAR calculations at FanGraphs, Hicks has given the Yankees $65.4M in production the last two seasons. Based on that, Hicks could be worth his entire extension the next two or three years alone. The $/WAR calculation at FanGraphs doesn’t really apply to the Yankees though. They should — should — be willing to pay more for a win than the average team because each win the Yankees add greatly increases their chances of winning the AL East and thus winning the World Series. (I don’t know about you, but I am sick of the Wild Card Game.) Adding wins is the single biggest priority right now, and, with this extension, the Yankees added a lot of wins in 2020 and beyond. A lot of wins on a long-term yet affordable contract. Affordable enough that, should Hicks go all Jacoby Ellsbury, his salary won’t stand in the way of doing anything big. Also, at that price, Hicks will be forever tradeable, especially since his actual salaries are lower in 2024 and 2025 than 2020-23. If you’re into surplus value, the Hicks extension will be in the black for the Yankees very quickly, especially since the Yankees are ostensibly willing to pay more for a win than the $/WAR numbers at FanGraphs would lead you to believe. He could be worth the $70M before the end of next year. Everything after that is gravy.

3. Last week I laid out what I thought was the Yankees’ extension priority list and I had Hicks in the top spot, so I’m not surprised at all to see him get a deal. He’s a quality player and he plays a position where the Yankees have little depth, and few quality options are expected to hit the market. Seriously, who was going to play center field next year if not Hicks? Estevan Florial won’t be ready, Aaron Judge and Clint Frazier can’t (or shouldn’t, anyway) play center field everyday, and neither should then-36-year-old Brett Gardner. Assuming the Pirates exercise their $11.5M club option for Starling Marte (that’s an easy yes), the best free agent center fielders next winter will be Leonys Martin and Juan Lagares, and nope. Nope nope nope. Trying to repeat the Hicks move with a buy low candidate like Byron Buxton or Manny Margot would’ve been much more preferable to signing one of those dudes, and who’s to say a young buy low candidate like that would even be available? The best move was signing Hicks, and the Yankees did exactly that on team friendly terms. Center field was going to a real issue going forward had the Yankees let Hicks walk or been outbid. You can always find a cheap corner outfielder in free agency. Center field though? Nope.

4. That all said, given his age and the contract length, there’s no doubt the Yankees signed Hicks with the understanding he will finish the contract in a corner outfield spot. I’d say right field is more likely than left because his arm is so strong. It would go to waste in left. Center field is a young man’s position. Last year Charlie Blackmon (32), Lorenzo Cain (32), Adam Jones (32), and A.J. Pollock (30) were the only 30-somethings to start at least 100 games in center field. Jones moved to right field in August and Blackmon is moving to right this year. Denard Span is the only player in the last three seasons to start at least 100 games in center at age 33 or older. He started 129 games in center at age 33 for the 2017 Giants and he was horrible out there. His time in center ended the next season. A center fielder, even one as athletic as Hicks, moving to a corner in his early-to-mid-30s is the natural order of things. The Yankees kept Bernie Williams in center far longer than they should’ve — Bernie is forever cool with me, but he was at -63 DRS in center from 2002-05 (ages 33-36), and yikes — though they didn’t repeat that mistake with Johnny Damon. He was a left fielder by age 33. At some point Hicks will slow down and have to move to a corner. Given his age and athleticism, I think we’re at least three years away from that happening, probably four. Hicks strikes me as a Cain type who can continue to play center through his age 32 or 33 seasons. That’d be ideal.

Dellin. (Presswire)

5. Now that Hicks is signed and some new information has come to light, I might as well update that extension priority list I mentioned two points ago. This is what I think it looks like now:

  1. Dellin Betances (free agent after 2019)
  2. Didi Gregorius (free agent after 2019)
  3. Aaron Judge (free agent after 2022)
  4. Gary Sanchez (free agent after 2022)
  5. Gleyber Torres (free agent after 2024)
  6. Miguel Andujar (free agent after 2023)

Two weeks ago I had Betances behind Gregorius and Judge. Since then, we’ve heard more about the Yankees and Betances discussing an extension than any other player. Even with his volatility, it makes sense. Dellin will be a free agent following this season, so there is some pressure to get this done soon, and Gregorius, another impending free agent, is coming back from a major surgery. The Yankees might want to wait to see how Sir Didi bounces back before getting serious about an extension. Since the Yankees are in the extension giving mode, signing Judge figures to be high on the priority list, maybe even ahead of Gregorius. The Yankees could easily ride out Judge’s final dirt cheap pre-arbitration year and enjoy the mammoth production on a six-figure salary. It is an option. Signing him now equals more long-term savings though. That’s how these deals work. The sooner you sign the player, the bigger the discount. Should Judge repeat his 2018 season in 2019, minus the wrist injury, he’ll threaten arbitration salary records. Locking in his salaries now, even if it means paying more luxury tax in 2019, could equal huge savings down the road. Anyway, that’s what I think the team’s extension priority list looks like. The healthy impending free agent, the injured impending free agent, the homegrown face of the franchise four years away from free agency, then everyone else.

6. What does the Hicks signing mean for Florial? Absolutely nothing. Nothing at all. Don’t even sweat it. The two are in no way connected. Hicks has established himself as an above-average big leaguer. Florial is a just turned 21-year-old kid likely to start the season back with High-A and maybe finish it in Double-A. Also, he has some pretty serious pitch recognition issues to iron out. I don’t believe the Hicks deal means the Yankees will be more open to trading Florial because I believe the Yankees have always been open to trading Florial. I’m not saying they would give him away, but a prospect this risky should never be made off-limits. Not for MLB roster help when your championship window is as open as it’s going to get. What happens when Florial is big league ready? First, celebrate, because that’ll mean he’s overcome his pitch recognition issues and is poised to be a really good player. Second, sit back and let the Yankees figure it out. Florial is probably two years away from the big leagues, maybe more depending on his pitch recognition improvement, and a lot can and will change between now and then. Maybe he’ll arrive right as Hicks is ready to slide over to a corner spot. That’d be convenient. Maybe the Yankees will need to replace Aaron Judge when Florial is ready. I don’t think that’ll be case, but who knows? Who had the Yankees giving Hicks a seven-year contract (!) at this point two years ago? Exactly. Seriously, don’t worry about what the Hicks deal means for Florial. Nothing’s changed. Florial is still a very young and very talented prospect with a very real issue to correct in his pitch recognition. When he’s ready, if ever, the Yankees will make room for him. The Hicks extension doesn’t change that.

7. So, now that the Yankees have locked up two core players with more extensions seemingly on the way, they’re going to circle back and pursue Bryce Harper, right? Right? No, no they’re not, because they were never going to pursue Bryce Harper and the whole “we can’t give out a big contract because we need to sign our core” thing was little more than a lame excuse for the team’s contribution to league-wide payroll stagnation. We’re talking about the Yankees here. Forgive me for thinking the team in the game’s biggest market with the league’s highest revenues should be able to sign their core players and afford premier free agents. It shouldn’t be one or the other and yet we’re being told it is. Whatever, man. At least no one with the Yankees has said, “Did we promise we were going to spend more money, or did we promise we were going to have more flexibility?” like Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos a few weeks ago. Imagine Brian Cashman or Hal Steinbrenner saying that. My blood would’ve boiled. The Yankees had a good offseason — not a great offseason, but a good offseason — and now they’re signing core players to team friendly contracts. All things considered, it could be worse. An awful lot worse. It could be quite a bit better too.

Feb. 25th Spring Training Notes: Hicks, Betances, Gregorius, Sanchez, Andujar, Gardner, Rotation

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The Yankees beat the Blue Jays for their second straight Grapefruit League win this afternoon. Troy Tulowitzki went deep in his first at-bat. “It was the biggest Spring Training homer I’ve ever hit in my life … No doubt (it felt good). That was a team that told me I couldn’t play anymore,” he said to Bryan Hoch and Coley Harvey. Tulowitzki looked quite good in the field too. I was pleasantly surprised. Anyway, Kyle Higashioka socked a dinger and Aaron Judge banged a double off the wall in left-center.

James Paxton made the start tossed two scoreless innings. He struck out two. Paxton was a little wild in the first inning (two walks) before settling down in the second. Domingo German and Luis Cessa each tossed two scoreless innings as well. German allowed a single, Toronto’s only hit of the day. Chad Green and Jonathan Holder had uneventful innings. So far, so good. Here are the box score and video highlights, and here are the day’s notes from Tampa:

  • In case you missed it earlier, the Yankees signed Aaron Hicks to a seven-year, $70M extension with an eighth year club option. “I’m betting on you,” Brian Cashman said he told Hicks. The GM added he believes Hicks has “a lot more gas in the tank,” which I think means the Yankees believe Hicks has a lot of peak years remaining. Would be cool. [Jack Curry]
  • Cashman reiterated the Yankees are having extension talks with other players. “We’ve been very vocal that we’ve engaged with a lot of players,” he said. Dellin Betances is among them, though there is nothing imminent with him or Didi Gregorius. [Jack Curry, Andy Martino]
  • Gary Sanchez is expected to get into a Grapefruit League game at the end of this week. “We are still shooting for March 1st. He is ready to go,” said Aaron Boone. The Yankees are easing Sanchez back into game action this spring following offseason shoulder surgery. [George King]
  • Miguel Andujar and Brett Gardner were both scratched from today’s lineup. Andujar is sick and Gardner has an ingrown toenail. Neither is serious. Andujar is day-to-day and Gardner is scheduled to play tomorrow. [Bryan Hoch]
  • The upcoming rotation: Masahiro Tanaka on Tuesday (YES, MLB.tv), Albert Abreu on Wednesday (no TV), and J.A. Happ on Thursday (no TV). Damn. Was really hoping to see Abreu. [Coley Harvey]
  • And finally, in case you missed it earlier, the Yankees have hired Andy Pettitte as a special advisor to Cashman. Pettitte said Derek Jeter tried to woo him to the Marlins.

If you’re interested, this afternoon’s game will be replayed on MLB Network (8pm ET) and YES (after the Nets game). The Yankees are back at it tomorrow afternoon at home against the Phillies. That’s another 1:05pm ET start. YES and MLB.tv will carry the game live.