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Reports: Manny Machado agrees to deal with Padres

February 19, 2019 by Mike

(Tom Pennington/Getty)

The Manny Machado free agency saga is finally over. According to multiple reports Machado has agreed to a massive ten-year, $300M contract with the San Diego Padres. Yes, the Padres. Allow me to toot my own horn and point out I called the Padres as a sleeper team on Machado over a month ago, before they reportedly got involved in the bidding. Go me.

Machado’s new contract includes an opt-out after the fifth year, which surprises me. I thought his side would push for an opt-out after the third year, which would allow him to reenter free agency at age 29, and also right as the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires and things (maybe) get better for free agents. Maybe Machado’s camp tried but the Padres wouldn’t budge. Whatever.

At $300M, this is the second largest contract in baseball history behind Giancarlo Stanton’s 13-year, $325M deal. It’s also the largest free agent contract in North American sports history (Stanton’s deal was an extension during his arbitration years). The Padres gave out the richest free agent contract last winter (Eric Hosmer), remember. Don’t ever let teams trick you into believing they don’t have money.

San Diego appears to be an odd destination for Machado, and it is, but money talks. Also, the Padres have a monster farm system. Best in baseball in my book. Their best prospects, like Luis Urias and Francisco Mejia, started to arrive last year, and others like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack could arrive this year. You can see the foundation of a contending roster forming, and since Machado is only 26, he fits right in with the youth movement.

With Machado off the board Bryce Harper becomes the undisputed top free agent available, and I imagine the Phillies and White Sox will ramp up their efforts to sign him. At least one of those two clubs is going to walk away empty-handed. The Giants have been connected to Harper in recent weeks and I wouldn’t rule out the Nationals either. I reckon Machado’s contract record won’t last long.

As for the Yankees, they only half-heartedly pursued Machado this winter. They met with him at Yankee Stadium in December and, according to James Wagner and Jack Curry, they never made him an offer after that, and “strong voices” in the organization were against signing him. The Yankees have barely been connected to Harper this offseason. I suppose they could swoop in to sign him, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

The Yankees will see Machado and Padres during interleague play this year. The Padres are scheduled to visit Yankee Stadium for a three-year series from May 27th to 29th. The Yankees are not going to San Diego this season, however.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: Manny Machado, San Diego Padres

Danny Farquhar has a chance to win an Opening Day bullpen spot and he’s worth rooting for

February 19, 2019 by Mike

(Presswire)

The Yankees were arguably the most active team in baseball this offseason and, for a little while there in January, they made a free agent signing a week. Troy Tulowitzki one week, Zack Britton the next week, DJ LeMahieu the week after that, then Adam Ottavino the week after that. Then they capped it all off by trading Sonny Gray.

Those few weeks were quite busy, and buried in all that activity was a minor league signing that represented so much more. The Yankees inked journeyman righty Danny Farquhar to a minor league contract on January 21st, eleven months after he collapsed in the dugout while with the White Sox. He suffered a life-threatening brain hemorrhage after an aneurysm ruptured.

Farquhar spent three weeks in the hospital after collapsing in the dugout and he’s said he felt he could’ve returned to the mound last September, but decided not to push it. He took it slow during the offseason and eventually the Yankees scooped him up as a depth piece, and they had a protective liner custom made to fit under his cap.

“To think ten months ago I would be here, you don’t know. I am extraordinarily thankful,” said Farquhar last week, during a press conference following his first Spring Training bullpen session. “… It’s my drive, my passion. Baseball is something I’ve been doing since I was five years old. I want to keep playing until someone won’t put a uniform on me.”

Watch the video of his press conference and scroll through his Instagram feed and you see someone who is so very clearly overjoyed to be playing baseball again. Farquhar’s still a young man, he turned only 32 this past weekend, and he has a wife and three young children. He nearly lost his life last year and now he’s back at the park, doing what he loves. It is impossible not to root for this guy.

Does Farquhar have a chance to crack this bullpen? Yes, he does. I wouldn’t call it likely but he does because there are two open bullpen spots. Farquhar says he’s trying not thinking about that — “I’m happy to be in a uniform and playing. I try not to look at the big picture too much because then you get overwhelmed and caught up in stuff,” he said — but gosh, it has to be in the back of his mind, no? It’s only natural.

Obviously Farquhar’s performance in camp will be the biggest factor in determining whether he gets a bullpen spot. The arm strength is looking good but we have to see how he fares against hitters — “Hitters will always let you know what your stuff is. I’m curious to have that feedback,” he said — because, at the end of the day, this is a guy who hasn’t pitched competitively since April. There’s bound to be some rust.

There are a few things beyond spring performance that Farquhar has going for him. First of all, he has a history with the organization. The Yankees liked Farquhar enough that they claimed him off waivers in June 2012 — Farquhar said he and Dellin Betances were roommates with Double-A Trenton — and while they traded him for Ichiro Suzuki a month later, that was business. The MLB roster takes priority over a Double-A bullpen prospect.

Secondly, Farquhar is a strikeout pitcher and the Yankees love strikeouts. He’s thrown at least 30 innings in five different MLB seasons and in three of those five he posted a 27.0% strikeout rate or better. (His career strikeout rate is 26.9%.) Relatedly, Farquhar is an analytics guy. He told James Fegan (subs. req’d) the Rays got him into numbers during his time with Tampa and he’s kinda run with it.

“The fastball has a thing called carry,” Farquhar said. “My fastball has an average of 10 or 11 inches of carry — and this is what the Rays told me — the average big league fastball is nine inches of carry, so it’s a couple inches above that. Then you have the kill zone which is the one that gets murdered most of the time by the hitters, and that’s eight inches of carry. That’s the one where you don’t want to be no matter what the pitch is. That’s not to say that every pitch with that carry level is going to be hit over the fence, but a majority of them get hit for extra-base hits. And then you have the changeup, I think mine sits between three and four, so it comes out the same but there’s separation in the pitch.”

Not coincidentally, Farquhar is a spin rate guy and the Yankees love pitchers who can spin the ball. Over the last two years his low-to-mid-90s four-seamer averaged 2,372 rpm, better than the 2,263 rpm league average. Add in his reputation for being a good clubhouse guy — “He’s already brought something to us just from the energy he brings to the park every day,” said Aaron Boone to Dan Martin — and Farquhar has some things going for him.

Of course, we are talking about a pitcher who was just okay (4.20 ERA and 4.07 FIP) in his most recent full MLB season, and a guy returning from a serious medical condition. The bullpen sessions look good but those are only bullpen sessions. Once Grapefruit League games begin this weekend, it could become clear quickly that Farquhar is rusty and will need Triple-A time before he’s ready to contribute to a big league roster.

“No fear or trepidation yet,” Farquhar said to Mark Didtler. “I haven’t had any hurdles to jump, but I’m sure those hurdles will come. Honestly, it’s just been working out and throwing more than anything. Haven’t had to face a batter. Haven’t given up a home run yet. So, I think there’s a lot more steps that I still have to go through.”

Don’t mistake this for a charity minor league signing. Farquhar’s been a full-time big leaguer since 2013 and he’s pitched in high-leverage situations, most notably saving 16 games for the 2013 Mariners and setting up for the 2016-17 Rays. The strikeouts, spin rates, and analytic slant are all things the Yankees value. This is the second time they’ve acquired him, remember. He’s been on their radar for a while.

The Yankees signed Farquhar because they believe he could help them win games at some point. If not right away in one of those final two bullpen spots, then later in the season, once he gets his bearings in Triple-A. No matter what happens on the field, Farquhar is a feel-good story and someone worth rooting for. This is the best kind of comeback story.

Filed Under: Death by Bullpen Tagged With: Danny Farquhar

Feb. 18th Spring Training Notes: Andujar, Stanton, Loaisiga, Betances, Britton

February 18, 2019 by Mike

Position players reported to Spring Training today and Aaron Boone told Coley Harvey everyone has now reported to camp. New father Dellin Betances arrived today, as did righty reliever Raynel Espinal, who had a visa issue. Also, Boone said everyone’s physical came back okay. No surprise injuries to begin Spring Training. Here are the day’s notes from Tampa:

  • Here’s a good explanation of what Miguel Andujar is/has been working on defensively. Pretty interesting stuff. He’s added a little hop to his pre-pitch setup and is throwing more overhand on routine players. Here’s some video of Andujar fielding grounders today.
  • Giancarlo Stanton held a quick little start-of-spring press conference and said the biggest difference between playing for the Yankees and playing for the Marlins is “playing in games that mattered past May 7th.” Ouch. Stanton also said he’s feels fortunate to have signed his contract when he did given the current free agent climate. I mean, duh. [Bryan Hoch, James Wagner]
  • Jonathan Loaisiga hired a trainer this winter and focused on strengthening his shoulder. “We followed the program (the Yankees gave us). I worked to improve the little muscles around the shoulder. That’s one thing that has bothered me throughout my career,” he said. [Randy Miller]
  • Betances said he has had contract extension talks with the Yankees but declined to give details. “My priority is my baby boy and helping this team win,” he said. Betances will become a free agent after the season. [Pete Caldera, Jack Curry]
  • Turns out Zack Britton was not available for Game Three of the ALDS last year. He had a calf issue that was serious enough to require an MRI. Apparently the Yankees never announced anything because they didn’t want to hurt Britton’s impending free agency. [Andy Martino]
  • James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ, Chad Green, and Tommy Kahnle were all on the schedule to throw live batting practice today. So was Danny Farquhar. [Lindsey Adler]
  • And finally, in case you were hoping the Yankees would pick him up for the final bench spot, Derek Dietrich signed a minor league deal with the Reds today. So that’s that. [Ken Rosenthal]

Now that position players are in camp, the Yankees will hold full squad workouts the next four days before opening their Grapefruit League schedule this coming Saturday. The Yankees haven’t announced their starting pitchers for the first few spring games yet. Should happen in a day or two. Here’s the spring television broadcast info.

Filed Under: Spring Training Tagged With: Dellin Betances, Zack Britton

Minor League Notes: System & Prospect Ranks, Diaz, Stowers

February 18, 2019 by Mike

Abreu. (Jennifer Stewart/Getty)

Major League Spring Training opened last week but minor league camp is still a few weeks away. Minor league camp doesn’t open until early March. A bunch of prospects are already working out at the complex in Tampa though. Anyway, here’s one last link back to my Top 30 Prospect List and here are some minor league notes.

Baseball America, Keith Law release farm system rankings

Both Baseball America (subs. req’d) and Keith Law (subs. req’d) released their annual farm system rankings in recent days, and they both have the Padres and Rays ranked first and second, respectively. Their lists diverge from there. They ranked the Yankees similarly:

  • Baseball America (20th): “After graduating Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar the last two years, the system has dropped without an elite, near-ready prospect, but they are deep in young pitching.”
  • Keith Law (19th): “The Yankees’ top end has thinned out significantly, but from low-A down they at least have a strong collection of guys who show enough to grab your attention — elite speed or power, big velocity, huge spin rates — and create some potential trade value.”

Readers ask me where I think the farm system ranks every week in our chat, and I’ve been saying the 15-20 range since the Justus Sheffield trade. Bottom half of the league but closer to middle of the pack than last. The Yankees are loaded with high-end kids in the low minors, so the potential is there for rapid improvement. That’s also a risky profile. There is lots of boom or bust potential in the system and the rankings reflect that.

Law, FG, BP release top Yankees prospects lists

FanGraphs, Keith Law (subs. req’d), and Baseball Prospectus (subs. req’d) all released their top Yankees prospects lists recently and they go well beyond the top ten. FanGraphs ranked 38 (!) prospects and their list is free. Go read all the scouting reports. Law ranked 20 players and mentioned ten others. Baseball Prospectus ranked 15 and mentioned another four. Here are the top tens:

FanGraphs
1. OF Estevan Florial
2. RHP Jonathan Loaisiga
3. RHP Deivi Garcia
4. OF Antonio Cabello
5. RHP Roansy Contreras
6. RHP Albert Abreu
7. OF Everson Pereira
8. C Anthony Seigler
9. RHP Luis Gil
10. RHP Clarke Schmidt

Keith Law
1. RHP Deivi Garcia
2. OF Everson Pereira
3. OF Estevan Florial
4. RHP Jonathan Loaisiga
5. C Anthony Seigler
6. RHP Freicer Perez
7. RHP Clarke Schmidt
8. RHP Albert Abreu
9. OF Anthony Cabello
10. SS Thairo Estrada

Baseball Prospectus
1. RHP Jonathan Loaisiga
2. OF Estevan Florial
3. OF Antonio Cabello
4. RHP Deivi Garcia
5. OF Everson Pereira
6. RHP Luis Gil
7. RHP Mike King
8. RHP Roansy Contreras
9. RHP Clarke Schmidt
10. RHP Chance Adams


Law picked Cabello as his sleeper for 2019. “Cabello has so much upside that I even had suggestions to put him in my top 100, although I think that would have been premature. But he could belong in a year,” says the write-up. He also notes the big money 2014-15 international signings (3B Nelson Gomez, OF Juan De Leon, OF Jonathan Amundaray, etc.) have flamed out. “Only (SS Hoy Jun) Park looks like he might ever even see a day in the majors,” he writes. The spending spree was a good idea but wow did it not work out as expected. Lotta money for nothing.

FanGraphs posted their top 132 prospects list last week, which had Blue Jays 3B Vlad Guerrero Jr. in the top spot, and included only one Yankee: Florial at No. 106. Why is Loaisiga above Florial in the Yankees top ten but not on the top 132 list? Beats me. In a separate piece FanGraphs looked at players they expect to be a top 100 prospect next year. Cabello, OF Kevin Alcantara, and RHP Trevor Stephan are among them. The Yankees gave Alcantara a $1M bonus last summer and all indications are he is about to become a Very Big Deal.

Yankees connected to another top international free agent

Last week we learned the Yankees are expected to sign Dominican OF Jasson Dominguez when the 2019-20 international signing period opens July 2nd. Dominguez is considered the best available player this summer and he’s expected to receive a massive bonus in the $5M range. Ben Badler (subs. req’d) now connects the Yankees to another top international player, Dominican OF Jhon Diaz. From Badler:

Diaz is smaller than the other top players in the class, but he’s one of the most skilled game players for 2019. He’s a lefty who consistently performs well in games with a quick, simple swing and a knack for barreling the ball against live pitching. He’s a center fielder with good defensive instincts and one of the smartest baseball IQ players in the country.

Diaz looks like he’s about nine years old in the video embedded above. Total opposite of Dominguez, who looks like a grown man (in the very limited video I can find).

Badler says the Red Sox were expected to sign Diaz but “more recently there’s been buzz” about the Yankees signing him. That’s not as firm a connection as Dominguez, but it is a connection nonetheless. The bonus pools will be announced in a few weeks and the Yankees figure to be in the $5M to $5.25M range. They’ll have to trade for additional pool space to sign anyone other than Dominguez. (Teams can trade for an additional 60% of their pool. It used to be 75%. Now it’s 60%.)

Yankees were ready to draft Stowers

In the least surprising news ever, George King (subs. req’d) reports the Yankees were ready to select OF Josh Stowers with their second round pick last summer. The Mariners beat them to the punch and grabbed Stowers with the 54th overall pick. The Yankees held the 61st overall selection and used it on C Josh Breaux. They got their man last month when they acquired Stowers from the Mariners in the Sonny Gray three-team trade.

“We had him rated in the vicinity of 50th (overall), close to the bottom of the second round. He can run and is a basestealer who plays center field and has power. He is a very good athlete. The ceiling on him is he has power and speed,” said scouting director Damon Oppenheimer to King. As soon as the trade went down, I figured Stowers was someone the Yankees had targeted in the draft last year. I assume the LHP Ronald Roman situation is similar. He’s a 17-year-old kid the Diamondbacks signed as an international free agent last summer. The Yankees got Roman, who has yet to play a pro game, in the Tim Locastro trade last month. They probably tried to sign him last summer.

Filed Under: International Free Agents, Minors Tagged With: 2018 Draft, Albert Abreu, Anthony Seigler, Antonio Cabello, Chance Adams, Clarke Schmidt, Deivi Garcia, Estevan Florial, Everson Pereira, Freicer Perez, Jhon Diaz, Jonathan Loaisiga, Josh Stowers, Kevin Alcantara, Luis Gil, Mike King, Prospect Lists, Roansy Contreras, Thairo Estrada, Trevor Stephan

Aroldis Chapman and his hopefully healthy knee [2019 Season Preview]

February 18, 2019 by Mike

Spring Training is underway and soon Grapefruit League games will begin. Between now and Opening Day we’re going to preview the 2019 Yankees bit-by-bit, player-by-player. We begin today with the guy who pitches at the end of the game.

(Presswire)

The 2019 Yankees are built from the ninth inning forward. Brian Cashman & Co. have built what is, on paper, the deepest and most powerful bullpen in the sport. It is not particularly close either. Check out the projected bullpen WAR leaderboard at FanGraphs:

  1. Yankees: +6.1 WAR
  2. Brewers: +4.7 WAR
  3. Mets: +4.3 WAR
  4. Astros: +4.2 WAR
  5. Pirates: +3.8 WAR

The gap between No. 1 and No. 2 is the same as the gap between No. 2 and No. 10. ZiPS guru Dan Szymborski says that, with 27 of the 30 teams complete, his system projects the Yankees to have three of the four best relievers in baseball by ERA+. Projections are not predictions, they are an estimate of current talent level, and the Yankees are loaded with bullpen talent right now.

At the center of that bullpen — or, more accurately, at the end of that bullpen — is Aroldis Chapman. Manager Aaron Boone has many options to bridge the gap between the starter and the ninth inning, but, when the bullpen door swings open in the ninth, we know who’s entering the game. It’s Chapman and the closer’s role is his. What happens in the innings leading up to Chapman is a little more up in the air due to matchups and whatnot.

Chapman will celebrate his 31st birthday next week and he was a deserving All-Star last season, throwing 51.1 innings with a 2.45 ERA (2.09 FIP) and a 43.9% strikeout rate. It was his highest strikeout rate in four years and the third highest in baseball among the 336 pitchers to throw at least 50 innings. Only Josh Hader (46.7%) and Edwin Diaz (44.3%) fanned batters at a higher rate in 2019.

This season Chapman will again serve as a linchpin in what figures to be the game’s best bullpen. Yes, the Yankees have the bullpen depth to cover the ninth inning should something go wrong. They also need Chapman to dominate in the ninth inning to get to where they want to go, which is to the World Series and down the Canyon of Heroes. Let’s preview the closer’s upcoming season.

How’s the knee?

A left knee injury, which was never classified as anything more than tendinitis, hampered Chapman throughout last season and sent him to what is now formerly known as the disabled list for about a month late in the year. He came back well and resumed closing in the postseason, and did not require anything more than rest in the offseason. Things are going well so far in Spring Training.

“Really good,” said Boone to Brendan Kuty last week when asked about the status if Chapman’s knee. “Obviously that’s something that we’ll keep close tabs on and stay vigilant with it. All the drills, trying to communicate with him exactly how he’s feeling. If you follow him on Instagram, you can see he was moving around pretty well this winter. He’s in really good condition as well.”

The good news is Chapman didn’t need surgery. Even something relatively minor like a torn meniscus is not all that minor. Surgery would’ve required rehab and cut into his offseason program. Instead, he was able to rest and have a relatively normal winter. Will the knee bark again this year? It’s impossible to know right now. Even Chapman admitted the knee is a bit of an unknown going forward.

“I want to say no, but you never know,” said Chapman to Dan Martin when asked whether his knee will be an issue again. “I don’t think it will be. I finished all the rehab they recommended and was able to keep working out.”

Taking it easy on Chapman in Spring Training will be a piece of cake. Those games are meaningless. Once the regular season begins, things get a little more hectic, and it won’t necessarily be easy to manage his workload or be proactive with the knee. My hunch is the Yankees and Chapman will do exactly what they did last year. They’ll monitor the knee and back off when necessary. Hopefully the offseason did the trick and another month-long stint on the injured list can be avoided.

Is another adjustment coming?

The injury was to Chapman’s left knee, his push off knee, and it’s probably not a coincidence his trademark fastball was missing a little velocity last year. I’m sure age (Father Time comes for all of us) and general wear-and-tear played a role in the velocity loss as well. Whatever caused it, Chapman’s velocity was down last season.

On one hand, Chapman averaged 99.1 mph with his fastball last year, third highest in baseball behind Jordan Hicks (101.7 mph) and Tayron Guerrero (99.4 mph). On the other, his heater averaged 101.2 mph in 2016 and 100.2 mph in 2017, so we’re talking a full mile-an-hour gone from his fastball from 2016 to 2017 and again from 2017 to 2018. What if he loses another mile-an-hour in 2019?

Last year Chapman ostensibly compensated for the velocity loss by throwing more sliders. More than he’d ever thrown in his entire career (25.5%). That slider came with great results as well. Here’s Chapman’s slider and the league averages for sliders:

  • AVG: .109 (.209 league average)
  • ISO: .094 (.138 league average)
  • xwOBA: .102 (.254 league average)
  • Whiffs-per-Swings: 60.2% (35.5% league average)
  • Ground Balls: 57.1% (44.1% league average)

Chapman’s slider was outrageously good last season. Granted, it’s a relatively small sample size (244 sliders), but it happened, and it was awesome. Chapman’s slider was so good last year that it’s almost kinda hard to expect to be that good again this year. I mean, a .102 xwOBA? More than six misses for every ten swings? Obscene. Even with a little slip in effectiveness, we’re still talking a dominant slider.

The Yankees are an anti-fastball team, but, in Chapman’s case, his fastball is so good that you can’t get away from it. Even with reduced (“reduced”) velocity, he still threw his fastball roughly 70% of the time last year, and that absolutely played a role in his slider’s effectiveness. Hitters must respect the triple-digit heater, and when they instead get the upper-80s slider, it can lead to silly swings. It’s pretty great.

With any luck Chapman will regain velocity with a healthy knee this season. It’s not far-fetched. A healthy push off knee could create that extra little oomph he lost last year. That said, I think Chapman is at the point of his career where you have to expect continued velocity loss. Don’t get mad at me. That’s just baseball. He’ll play the season at 31 and his arm has a good amount of mileage on it. Once velocity loss happens, it tends to keep happening.

I think one of two things will happen this season even if Chapman regains some velocity with a healthy knee, or just maintains last year’s velocity. One, he’ll begin to throw more changeups, or two, he’ll throw even more sliders. I suppose both could happen, actually. Chapman threw seven (7) changeups all last season and he’s never thrown it more than 7.8% of the time in his career. That would really mess with hitters. Chapman throwing more changeups.

As for throwing more sliders, this seems more likely to me than more changeups, and it’s probably not a bad idea. Chapman doesn’t have to go all Adam Ottavino and throw 50% sliders. That’s too extreme a jump. At the end of the day, Chapman is still a fastball pitcher and he should use that fastball a lot. Going from roughly 25% sliders to 35% sliders — that’s two extra sliders per appearance, basically — could help keep him overwhelmingly dominant as he ages.

Keep in mind the Yankees and Chapman were proactive last year. He came out of the gate throwing more sliders, long before it was clear his velocity had dipped (and the knee was an issue, in theory). It was something they were planning all along. Also, Chapman made the adjustment and had success. Some guys try to add a new pitch or further incorporate an old one more often and struggle. He showed the aptitude to make the adjustment, and if the velocity loss continues this year, Chapman has given us reason to believe he’ll adjust again.

The opt-out looms

This will be year three of Chapman’s five-year, $86M contract. That is the largest total guarantee ever given to a reliever and the $17.2M average annual value was a reliever record at the time, though Wade Davis ($17.3M) broke it with his contract last year. Chapman’s contract allows him to opt-out following this season and so far this spring he’s given the standard answer when asked about it.

“It’s something I really don’t think about. We haven’t started the season, so I’m not thinking about my contract,” Chapman said to Martin last week. I feel like everyone says that in the spring before their opt-out clause.

Anyway, for what it’s worth, Chapman’s contract is front-loaded, which could nudge him toward using the opt-out. Here’s the contract structure:

  • 2017: $15M salary plus $1M of his $11M signing bonus
  • 2018: $15M salary plus $5M of his $11M signing bonus
  • 2019: $15M salary plus remaining $5M of his $11M signing bonus
  • 2020: $15M salary
  • 2021: $15M salary

By the end of the year Chapman will have been paid $56M of his $86M contract. He’d walk away from two years and $30M with the opt-out. Do Chapman and his representatives believe he can beat that on the open market? Forget about average annual value. Can he beat $30M total, even if we’re talking something like $42M across three years? That’s the question Chapman and his people will ponder.

The current free agent climate makes me think no player on a big money contract will (or should) opt-out anytime soon. In Chapman’s case, he’ll be 32 years old on Opening Day 2020 and we’re already seeing velocity loss. Even if the velocity returns this year, his age will work against him. Also, free agency did not bounce back this year. Last year was not an anomaly. It’s the new normal. Expecting a free agent market rebound next offseason is kinda foolish given what we know right now.

There’s no sense in sweating Chapman’s opt-out now. There is an entire season to play out first and his performance during the upcoming season will likely be the single biggest factor in his opt-out decision. With a healthy knee and a great season, Chapman could opt out, or at least try to leverage the opt-out into an extension with the Yankees. That will be especially true should Craig Kimbrel land a good deal in the coming weeks. More time on the injured list and more missing velocity would lead me to expect Chapman not to opt out.

* * *

As good as Chapman was last year — and he was very, very good — it’s not crazy to think he could be even better this season should his knee hold up, even at age 31. Everything in baseball starts from the ground up. You need a good base underneath you to do anything and Chapman’s lower half was compromised last year. With a healthy push off knee, his velocity could return (or at least not slip further) and his performance could get even better.

Even with a relief crew this deep, Chapman is the most crucial piece of the bullpen equation. Having him in the ninth means Boone is free to use Dellin Betances, Adam Ottavino, Zach Britton, and Chad Green however he sees fit earlier in game. If Chapman struggles or misses time, Britton probably steps in as closer and it changes the way the team operates. The Yankees are designed to out-slug their opponents in the early innings and smother them with the bullpen in the late innings. Chapman will again be a key piece in the team’s bullpen-centric approach.

Filed Under: Players Tagged With: 2019 Season Preview, Aroldis Chapman

Fan Confidence Poll: February 18th, 2019

February 18, 2019 by Mike

2018 Regular Season Record: 100-62 (851 RS, 669 RA, 98-64 expected record), second in ALE
2018 Postseason Record: 2-3 (22 RS, 29 RA), won WC Game, lost ALDS
2019 Spring Training Schedule This Week: Saturday at Red Sox; Sunday at Rays

Top stories from last week:

  • The Yankees and Luis Severino avoided arbitration with a four-year, $40M extension. The deal buys out Severino’s four arbitration years as a Super Two and includes a fifth year club option that covers a free agent year.
  • Injury Updates: Didi Gregorius (elbow) started a throwing program and could start swinging a bat two-handed in a few weeks. Jacoby Ellsbury (hip) is rehabbing at home in Arizona and is weeks away from reporting to camp. Jordan Montgomery (elbow) is right on schedule with his Tommy John surgery rehab. Aroldis Chapman (knee) is in “good condition.” Gary Sanchez (shoulder) expects to begin playing games one week into the Grapefruit League season. Mike King (elbow) will be shut down at least three weeks with a stress reaction.
  • The Marlins wanted both Sanchez and Miguel Andujar in J.T. Realmuto trade talks over the winter. The Yankees wouldn’t trade Sanchez for Realmuto straight up.
  • Dellin Betances is not yet in Spring Training because his wife gave birth to their first child a few days ago. Raynel Espinal is not in camp because of a visa issue.
  • The Yankees are expected to sign top Dominican outfield prospect Jasson Dominguez when the signing period opens July 2nd.
  • As expected, CC Sabathia announced 2019 will be his final season.

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea how confident you are in the Yankees. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the Features tab in nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
  • 10 (full confidence)
    936% of all votes
  • 9
    19213% of all votes
  • 8
    55338% of all votes
  • 7
    36525% of all votes
  • 6
    1279% of all votes
  • 5
    534% of all votes
  • 4
    191% of all votes
  • 3
    151% of all votes
  • 2
    101% of all votes
  • 1 (no confidence)
    463% of all votes
Total Votes: 1473 Started: February 17, 2019 Back to Vote Screen

Filed Under: Polls Tagged With: Fan Confidence

Feb. 17th Spring Training Notes: Lineup, Didi, Stephan, King

February 17, 2019 by Mike

After yesterday’s dual press conferences, today was a normal — and relatively light, apparently — day in camp. Things should pick up tomorrow when position players report. Here are today’s notes:

  • Aaron Boone said Aaron Hicks is the front-runner to bat leadoff this season, though he hasn’t ruled out Gleyber Torres either. That would allow them to move Hicks and his switch-hitting bat into the middle of the order. Boone added he would “flirt” with batting Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton one-two against left-handed pitchers. That’d be fun. [Brendan Kuty, Joel Sherman]
  • Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery) has his next doctor’s appointment in early March, and, if everything checks out okay, he could begin swinging a bat two-handed soon thereafter. Gregorius started a throwing program last week and is currently swinging one-handed with his non-Tommy John surgery arm. [Lindsey Adler]
  • Boone named Trevor Stephan as someone who’s stood out to him early in camp. “The stuff, the repertoire, the three pitches … It was exciting to see one of our young guys that maybe doesn’t impact our club this year, but it’s a little glimpse of guys on their way a little bit,” he said. I ranked Stephan as the team’s 13th best prospect last week. [Brendan Kuty]
  • We have our first (unofficial) roster cut: Mike King. He’s shut down with an elbow injury and was sent to minor league camp to rehab. His locker’s empty and his nameplate was taken down. Boone said King has not been completely ruled out for pitching this spring. We’ll see. There are still 62 players in big league camp. [Randy Miller, Brendan Kuty]
  • Today’s bullpen sessions: Domingo Acevedo, Rex Brothers, Drew Hutchison, Luis Severino, and Stephan. Here’s some video of Severino. [Randy Miller]

Position players will report to Spring Training tomorrow — most of them have been working out across the street at the minor league complex for a week or so now — and new father Dellin Betances is expected to arrive tomorrow as well. The first Grapefruit League game is six days away.

Filed Under: Spring Training Tagged With: Didi Gregorius, Mike King

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