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So long, Sonny: Yankees trade Gray to Reds in three-team deal with Mariners

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(Elsa/Getty)

It took a little longer than I think everyone expected, but the Yankees have finally traded Sonny Gray. Earlier today the Yankees sent Gray to the Reds in what is essentially a three-team trade with the Mariners. The deals have been announced, so it is official. Here’s the breakdown:

  • Reds get: Sonny Gray and lefty pitching prospect Reiver Sanmartin
  • Mariners get: Second base prospect Shed Long
  • Yankees get: Center field prospect Josh Stowers and a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick

Officially, the Yankees traded Gray and Sanmartin for Long and the draft pick, then flipped Long to the Mariners for Stowers. Based on the timestamps on the press releases, Long was officially a Yankee for nine minutes. The Yankees clear a 40-man roster spot with this deal, which means they won’t have to make an additional move when they announce the Adam Ottavino signing.

The Reds were reportedly unwilling to make the trade without signing Gray to a contract extension. The two sides have agreed to a three-year extension covering 2020-22. It is reportedly worth $30.5M. There is also a fourth year club option worth $12M, plus performance bonuses. Add in the one-year contract he already signed for 2019, and Gray’s new deal can max out at $50M across five years. Not bad.

Following the postseason Brian Cashman made it clear he was ready to trade Gray. His market took a little longer to develop than I expected, and the Yankees claimed they wanted to hold on to him following CC Sabathia’s heart procedure, but I never really bought it. It was a matter of “when” they’d trade Gray, not “if.” Cashman and the Yankees made it very clear they were ready to move on.

“We are going to move him if we get the right deal because I don’t think it is going to work out in the Bronx. I don’t feel like we can go through the same exercise and expect different results,” Cashman said to Joel Sherman in November. “Until someone walks through your door and lives (life as a Yankee), it is hard to know. You try to vet every aspect. You plan and work at it and sometimes it pays off and sometimes it doesn’t.”

“Ultimately, you want to play somewhere where you’re wanted,” said Gray to Mike Organ recently. “… I don’t think it’s a secret to anyone, it’s kind of been an up-and-down experience for me. I’ve loved my time there. I love the guys. It was obviously a difficult season this past year, starting and then going to the bullpen, not pitching as much. But, I mean, I won eleven games last year.”

Gray, 29, came to the Yankees in a deadline deal with the Athletics in 2017. Things started out fine, but he struggled with his control late that season, then things really fell apart last year. All told Gray pitched to a 4.51 ERA (4.40 FIP) in 195.2 innings in pinstripes. That includes a 6.55 ERA (4.97 FIP) in 88 innings at Yankee Stadium and a 2.84 ERA (3.05 FIP) in 107.2 innings on the road. Sonny didn’t mix well with the Bronx for whatever reason.

The 22-year-old Sanmartin came over from the Rangers in a minor trade last offseason and he pitched to a 2.81 ERA (2.71 FIP) with 21.3% strikeouts and 1.5% walks in 67.1 innings at four levels last year. I answered a mailbag question about him recently. Sanmartin’s a stats over scouting report prospect who will probably wind up in the bullpen. The Yankees are loaded with lower level arms and Sanmartin is an easy prospect to trade away.

Stowers, 21, was Seattle’s second round pick in last year’s draft. They gave him a $1.1M bonus as the 54th overall selection and he hit .260/.380/.410 (126 wRC+) with five homers and 20 steals in 58 short season league games after turning pro. Baseball America (subs. req’d) and MLB.com both ranked Stowers as the tenth best prospect in the Mariners’ system before the trade. Here’s a snippet of Baseball America’s scouting report:

The biggest question in projecting Stowers’ future is whether he can stay in center field, because he needs to improve his reads and jumps … his plus speed is enough for the position if he makes the rest of the necessary improvements. Otherwise, a below-average arm would limit him to left field. Stowers’ bat will likely carry him. He has a plus hit tool, and his sharp batting eye is expected to help him at higher levels when pitchers are around the zone more. With average power, Stowers projects to be able to hit 15-20 home runs per year.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) and MLB.com both ranked Long as the seventh best prospect in the Reds’ system before the trade. Based on the little I know about Long and Stowers, my preference would’ve been to hang on to Long, mostly because I prefer infielders to outfielders and upper level players to lower level players whenever possible. Stowers is just getting his career started and is a few years away. Long might play in MLB this coming season. Shrug.

The draft pick is a pretty big deal. Competitive Balance Round picks are the only draft picks that can be traded — this is the first time the Yankees have ever traded for a pick — and, right now, the draft pick is 36th overall. It could move a little in either direction as the remaining qualified free agents sign, though it’ll be in the mid-30s. The Yankees get the draft pick and the bonus pool money associated with the pick. Last year the 36th overall selection had a $1.97M slot value. An extra pick and all that extra bonus pool money equals more talent for the farm system this summer.

According to my quick math the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll is down to $221M this coming season, which is below the $226M second luxury tax tier. Realistically, there’s no way they can get under the $206M threshold at this point. Staying under the $226M threshold and avoiding the surtax is definitely doable and it wouldn’t surprise me if that’s the goal. A Manny Machado or Bryce Harper signing has felt unlikely for weeks and this trade doesn’t change that.

Aside from a surprise Machado or Harper signing, the only thing the Yankees really have left to do this winter is replace Gray with another swingman/spot starter type. I’d bet on that pitcher making much less than the $7.5M the Yankees were slated to pay Sonny this season. I’ve mentioned Francisco Liriano a few times as a personal favorite for that swingman role. Looking over the list of free agents, others like Jason Hammel and Drew Pomeranz could be swingman candidates. We’ll see.

Update: Yankees, Reds making progress on Sonny Gray trade

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Somehow still a Yankee. (Elsa/Getty)

Friday: The Sonny Gray trade rumors continue to swirl. Earlier today we heard the Yankees are moving closer to a deal, and now, according to Ken Rosenthal, and Yankees and Reds are making progress on a trade that would send Gray to Cincinnati. There haven’t been any updates since Rosenthal’s report, which is pretty annoying!

Here’s what we know about the current Gray trade talks with the Reds:

The Reds pursuing Gray passes the sniff test. They’ve been trading for veteran one-year rentals like Gray all winter (Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Tanner Roark, Alex Wood), and their pitching coach, Derek Johnson, was Sonny’s pitching coach at Vanderbilt. There’s a connection already in place. Cincinnati has seemed like a potential landing spot all offseason.

Getting Stephenson, Long, and a draft pick for Gray seems way too good to be true to me. It sounds more like those are the players (and pick) the Yankees have sought in their latest trade talks. Who knows whether the Reds are willing to give them up though. Maybe the Yankees can snag two of the three in a trade. That’d be pretty sweet.

My quick math puts the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll at $228.5M following the Adam Ottavino deal. Trading Gray and his entire $7.5M salary would get them under the $226M second luxury tax tier. The Yankees have made it clear they want to trade Sonny. Now that just about every other piece of offseason business has been handled, they figure to get around to moving Gray.

At the moment Gray has not been traded to the Reds. The two sides are only progressing toward a deal, as far as we know. Reds catcher Tucker Barnhart sent out a cryptic tweet this afternoon, so maybe the deal is done and we just don’t know it yet. Either way, hopefully this gets wrapped up soon. It’s been dragging on far too long already.

Saturday: According to Heyman, the Yankees and Reds are getting closer to a trade but it’s not done yet (argh). They’re discussing two prospects and the draft pick for Gray. Cincinnati wants to keep Stephenson, so right now talks are centered around Long, the draft pick, and an unidentified second prospect. Intrigue!

Sunday: The Yankees and Reds have agreed to the trade package but apparently Cincinnati is trying to sign Gray to a contract extension before finalizing the trade, report Heyman and Ken Rosenthal. The Yankees have to give the Reds permission to discuss an extension with Gray (duh) and if they do work out a deal, the Yankees could get more in return. Huh. Everyone root for an extension.

The Reds are still after Sonny Gray and the Yanks reportedly have interest in some young arms

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(Presswire)

It is January 14th and Sonny Gray is still a New York Yankee. He’s been on the trade block all winter, and, at one point, as many as eleven teams were in on him. The Yankees reportedly whittled that list down to the best possible suitors, but once CC Sabathia had his heart procedure, trade talks slowed. Gray could be necessary rotation depth.

Interest in Gray persists, however. Jon Heyman reports the Reds are still after Sonny despite reports to the contrary earlier this offseason. A few weeks ago Cincinnati was said to be fading out of the picture after acquiring one-year rentals Tanner Roark and Alex Wood. The reasoning was they wouldn’t want to give up more prospects for another one-year rental.

That said, Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson was Gray’s pitching coach at Vanderbilt, so there is a connection in place. And besides, the Reds could use more rotation help. In the deep NL Central, they’re going to need more than Roark, Wood, Yasiel Puig, and Matt Kemp to have a shot at contention. A few thoughts on this Grays/Reds stuff.

1. The Yankees apparently want pitching prospects now. Earlier this winter the Yankees reportedly asked the Reds for outfielder and top prospect Taylor Trammell in Gray trade talks. That was never going to happen, but hey, you can’t get what you don’t ask for, you know? Start with a high asking price, and if the other team doesn’t blink, adjust down. That’s what happened here.

Heyman says the Yankees are now focusing on upper level pitching prospects in talks with the Reds, specifically right-handers Tony Santillan, Vladimir Gutierrez, and Keury Mella. MLB.com ranks Santillan as the fifth best prospect in Cincinnati’s system, Gutierrez the eighth best, and Mella the 11th best. Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranks Santillan and Gutierrez fifth and ninth best, respectively, with Mella outside the top ten.

As the rankings suggest, the 21-year-old Santillan is the best prospect of the bunch. He managed a 3.08 ERA (3.69 FIP) with 21.3% strikeouts and 6.0% walks in 149 innings at High-A and Double-A last season. Here’s a snippet of the Baseball America scouting report:

His plus-plus fastball sits 94-98 mph with late life. It can be a heavy fastball that is difficult for hitters to square up. He works off his fastball with a future plus slider that has good plane and tight break, though it morphs into a cutter at times. While his firm 85-88 mph changeup lags behind the other two offerings, he does show some feel for it and throws it with deception and fade … (Important) control is important for him to reach his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter.

A physically large (6-foot-3 and 240 lbs.) righty with a huge fastball? Yeah, sounds like someone up the Yankees’ alley. Gutierrez, 23, had a 4.35 ERA (4.09 FIP) with 23.2% strikeouts and 6.1% walks in 147 Double-A innings last year. Baseball America calls him a potential back-end starter. The 25-year-old Mella has been an up-and-down guy the last two years. He’s a fading prospect with a fastball/slider combo that probably fits best in the bullpen. Mella is Cincinnati’s Chance Adams, kinda.

Anyway, the Yankees were never going to get a top prospect like Trammell for Gray. Now they’re apparently targeting the next best thing, which is upper level pitching depth. They have a ton of lower level pitching prospects and they’re largely set on upper level positions. There’s no such thing as too much pitching though, so that’s where they’re looking. They asked for Trammell, the Reds said no, and now the Yankees have lowered the asking price. It is the natural order of negotiations.

Mella. (Getty)

2. The Yankees say they’re willing to keep Gray. But I don’t believe them. Not based on the way they’ve been talking about him the last few weeks and the palpable frustration that was evident every time he was discussed last season. The Yankees tried everything. They gave Gray his personal catcher, they changed his pitch selection, they changed his role. Nothing worked. The Yankees are ready to move on. It’s best for everyone, really.

Because of that, I don’t think the Yankees are serious about keeping Gray. They’ve determined he can not succeed in his current environment, and if that is true, then he’s not really rotation depth, is he? If the expectation is a 5.00 ERA going forward, well, you can find that for cheap in free agency. Francisco Liriano, Jason Hammel, and Josh Tomlin all strike me as swingman types who can be had on the cheap. I think the Yankees are done with Gray. All that talk about keeping him following Sabathia’s procedure was just an attempt to create leverage.

3. Gray is quite a bit cheaper than expected. I had a feeling this would happen. Gray’s 2019 salary is considerably lower than projected. MLBTR projected a $9.1M salary. Sonny signed for $7.5M. For the Yankees, that $1.6M difference is less than 1% of their projected payroll. It’s still $1.6M in real money, and for a team with a projected $110M payroll like the Reds, that’s quite a bit of cash. Gray’s below projected salary makes him more affordable to everyone. The Yankees if they keep him and interested trade partners if they deal him.

4. The Yankees are already over the luxury tax threshold. And this could mean one of two things. One, the Yankees will say screw it and keep spending. Maybe not Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, but Adam Ottavino or another reliever. Or two, the Yankees could now be operating under a mandate to reduce the luxury tax penalty as much as possible, thus making a Gray trade a necessity. My hunch is the reality is somewhere in the middle.

My quick math has the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll at $219.5M, assuming Luis Severino wins in his arbitration hearing. That doesn’t leave much wiggle room under the $226M second luxury tax tier, the tier that kicks in a surtax and moves their top 2020 draft pick back. Perhaps the Yankees are willing to blow by that $226M threshold. Would be cool. If not, trading Gray will be a prerequisite to doing anything further because a guy like Ottavino ain’t taking $5M per year.

* * *

Trading Gray for salary relief and an upper level pitching prospect or two would be a pretty good outcome in my opinion. Sonny’s value is down, there’s no doubt about that, but it is not zero. Personally, I’d be cool with keeping him as a swingman/spot starter. I don’t think the Yankees are okay with that though. They seem ready to move on. Whether it’s the Reds or another team, it still feels like only a matter of time until Gray is moved, even if things are dragging on longer than expected.

Hot Stove Rumors: Reliever Market, Gray, Harrison, Profar

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Ottavino. (Matthew Stockman/Getty)

As expected, hot stove news has slowed to a crawl over the holidays. It’s been pretty quiet this last week or so and it’ll probably stay that way for another few days, at least until Yusei Kikuchi’s 30-day negotiating period expires Wednesday. The Yankees had interest in him at one point. The J.A. Happ signing may’ve changed things though. Anyway, here are the latest hot stove rumblings.

Yankees focusing on bullpen

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees are focusing on the bullpen as they wait for Manny Machado to make his decision. Zach Britton, Adam Ottavino, and David Robertson are all in play and it is possible the Yankees could sign more than one top reliever. Part of me wonders if the Yankees will blow it out and spend a ton of money should they manage to sign Machado, leading to two reliever signings. Once they’re over the luxury tax threshold, might as well go all out, you know? Otherwise they might stick to the luxury tax threshold (again).

Ottavino and especially Britton have been connected to the Yankees pretty much all offseason. Things have been oddly quiet with Robertson, however. There was that weird postseason shares story, which, if you’re a conspiracy theorist, could’ve been planted to turn fans on Robertson as the Yankees let him walk. Wouldn’t be the first time a team has done that. I don’t think that’s the case though. I very much prefer Robertson to literally every other free agent reliever on the market. Hopefully the two sides can hammer out a deal at some point.

Brewers and Padres still after Gray, Reds fading

The Brewers and Padres remain involved in Sonny Gray trade talks, report Jon Morosi and AJ Cassavell. The Reds, meanwhile, are starting to fade out of the picture after adding Tanner Roark and Alex Wood in recent weeks. I guess Cincinnati doesn’t want to dip into their farm system again to acquire another one-year rental. Eleven teams were in on Gray earlier this offseason and the Yankees have since whittled that list down to the most serious trade suitors.

I am surprised 2018 is just about over and Gray is still a Yankee. Chances are the Yankees are waiting until the right deal comes along — Spring Training is still six weeks away, so there’s no rush — though I suppose they could’ve decided to keep Sonny as a sixth starter/swingman, or that Brian Cashman’s public trade declarations have backfired. It seems to me the Yankees and Gray have reached the point of no return. He’ll be traded at some point. Maybe to the Brewers or Padres, or maybe somewhere else entirely. I’ll be surprised if Gray’s still a Yankee when pitchers and catchers report on February 13th.

Yankees still “in play” for Harrison

Harrison. (Justin Berl/Getty)

The Yankees are among the teams still “in play” for free agent infielder Josh Harrison, reports Heyman. He’s a popular guy, apparently. Heyman list both contenders (Brewers, Dodgers, Nationals, Phillies) and rebuilders (Giants, Rangers) among his suitors. The Yankees could use Harrison at second base before shifting him into a true utility role once Didi Gregorius returns from Tommy John surgery.

Harrison, 31, hit .250/.293/.363 (78 wRC+) with eight homers and three steals in 97 games this past season. He’s a year removed from a .272/.339/.432 (104 wRC+) batting line — that was propped up by an uncharacteristic 23 hit-by-pitches though — and can play pretty much any position, which is not nothing. The Yankees have had trade interest in Harrison in the past too. There are better middle infield options on the board right now (Machado, Jed Lowrie, DJ LeMahieu, etc.) and my preference is going after those guys before settling for Harrison.

Yankees had interest in Profar

Before he was traded to the Athletics, the Yankees had interest in Rangers infielder Jurickson Profar, reports Gerry Fraley. They weren’t willing to give up much to get him, apparently. Texas received four good but not great Double-A prospects plus international bonus money in the three-team trade. The A’s gave up an okay big league reliever (Emilio Pagan), a good Double-A prospect, international bonus money, and a Competitive Balance Round draft pick in the deal. Oakland won’t miss any of that.

Profar, 25, hit .254/.335/.458 (108 wRC+) with 20 homers and ten steals this past season. Shoulder injuries wrecked his 2014-15 seasons and he finally started to look his old tippy top prospect self in 2018. Profar was the position player centerpiece of my 2018-19 Offseason Plan because I think he’s on the cusp of breaking out as one of the game’s best players. The Yankees have had interest in him in the past and I was hoping they’d make a run at him again this offseason. Alas. It didn’t really happen.

2018 Winter Meetings Rumors Thread: Wednesday

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Yankees pls. (Rob Carr/Getty)

The Winter Meetings are two days old and thus far the Yankees have been mentioned in one potential blockbuster, a three-team trade that would bring Noah Syndergaard to the Bronx, but that seems like a long shot. It always did. The Mets trading three years of Syndergaard to get two years of J.T. Realmuto doesn’t add up. The Yankees will (probably) have to come up with a starting pitcher another way.

“We have our comfort levels and if and whenever we do match up on the trade or free agent front, then we’ll have something to show for it, but there’s no guarantee that will happen anytime soon,” said Brian Cashman to Pete Caldera. “(A deal) could happen today. We’re very active. But at the same time, we’re disciplined about what we’re willing to do and what we’re not willing to do.”

In addition to the Syndergaard thing, we’ve learned the Yankees are open to trading Miguel Andujar, still have interest in Zach Britton, and will meet with Manny Machado and Bryce Harper at some point. The Harper meeting will take place during the Winter Meetings because he lives in Las Vegas. Machado will come visit the Yankees in New York. No moves so far this week but lots of chatter.

Here are Monday’s rumors and Tuesday’s rumors. Today is the final full day of the Winter Meetings — everyone will head home after the Rule 5 Draft tomorrow — so, if the Yankees are going to get a deal done in Las Vegas, it’ll probably happen today. Anyway, here are today’s Yankees-related rumors. This post will be updated throughout the day so check back often. All timestamps are Eastern Time:

  • 7:07pm: Well, forget about a Lance Lynn reunion. The Rangers gave him a three-year deal worth $30M, according to multiple reports. Imagine?
  • 5:31pm: “I’ve never heard the Yankees say (they’re out on Bryce Harper). It might be that they say things to you. I wasn’t there,” said Scott Boras today. Keep in mind Boras wants everyone to think the Yankees are in on Harper even if they’re not. [Ken Davidoff]
  • 3:20pm: The Yankees remain in “active discussions” with the Reds about Sonny Gray. Cincinnati seems to be connected to everyone this winter, including Corey Kluber. [Jon Morosi]
  • 3:18pm: The Yankees have discussed trade possibilities with the Indians regarding their starting pitchers. There is no traction at the moment because the asking price is quite high. [Marc Carig]
  • 2:00pm: The Yankees have been in contact with Freddy Galvis‘ representatives. He’s an excellent defender with double-digit homer power but poor on-base skills (career .290 OBP). Obviously the Yankees are considering him as a potential Didi Gregorius replacement. [Joel Sherman]
  • 11:14am: In addition to J.A. Happ, the Yankees are in the mix for Lance Lynn. I would be perfectly fine with Lynn as a long man/sixth starter type. As the Opening Day fifth starter? Nah. Seems like there’s enough interest in Lynn that he’ll get a rotation spot elsewhere and not have to settle for a swingman role with the Yankees. [Mark Feinsand]
  • 9:56am: The Yankees have not yet given any thought to signing Troy Tulowitzki. The Blue Jays released Tulowitzki with two years and $38M remaining on his contract yesterday, so any team can sign him for the pro-rated portion of the league minimum. Tulowitzki did not play at all this past season due to heel trouble but he’s recovered and is working out this winter. [Brendan Kuty]
  • 9:43am: Brian Cashman met with Adam Ottavino‘s agent last night. He is believed to be high on their wish list. Ottavino grew up in Brooklyn but I wouldn’t put much stock into the hometown thing. Money is usually the determining factor in free agency. [Joel Sherman]
  • 9:30am: The Phillies are believed to be inching closer to a deal with J.A. Happ, who is holding out for a three-year contract. “They are bringing it,” said one executive. The Yankees have interest in a reunion with Happ but thus far have been unwilling to offer a third year. [George King]
  • 9:30am: Internally, it was “never even much of a debate” for the Yankees to chase J.T. Realmuto. They value Gary Sanchez highly and he has four years of team control remaining whereas Realmuto only has two. [Joel Sherman]

2018 Winter Meetings Rumors Thread: Tuesday

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(Mike Stobe/Getty)

Day One of the Winter Meetings came and went yesterday without much activity. The were two small signings (Billy Hamilton to the Reds, Tyson Ross to the Tigers) and several waiver claims. That’s about it. There were plenty of rumors, of course, and the Yankees were involved in a few of ’em. Brian Cashman admitted he’s been in touch with Manny Machado’s and Yusei Kikuchi’s agents, plus we learned the Yankees aren’t comfortable with a three-year deal for J.A. Happ. Can’t say I am either.

“The operation that George (Steinbrenner) was able to operate and navigate through is nowhere close to the one that Hal Steinbrenner has to operate and navigate through,” Cashman said to Ronald Blum. “It’s a convenient, easy story to write about us being different than the Boss’s Yankees, but the game’s completely different, too, And I think we’ve been operating in a different capacity because it’s a whole new world order.”

Late last night word got out the Yankees are discussing a three-team trade with the Mets and Marlins that would put Noah Syndergaard in pinstripes. J.T. Realmuto would go to Queens and I assume the Yankees would send prospects to Miami. A trade this complicated is always a long shot — surely the Mets have other ways to get Realmuto without giving up Syndergaard, right? — and that goes double when there’s a Yankees-Mets element involved. This would be pretty rad though.

Anyway, here are Monday’s rumors. We’ll again keep track of all the day’s Yankees-related rumblings right here in this post, so make sure you check back often. Remember, the Winter Meetings are in Las Vegas this year. It might take a little while before everyone on the West Coast wakes up and starts feeding rumors and hot stove news to us East Coasters. All timestamps are Eastern Time. Here’s the latest on Day Two of the Winter Meetings:

  • 7:23pm: Brian Cashman confirmed that pretty much every player on the roster has been asked about in trades this offseason except Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. No one has the guts to ask about Judge, eh? There were some bad contract-for-bad-contract swap talks involving Jacoby Ellsbury. “Money laundering,” Cashman called it. [Bryan Hoch]
  • 4:35pm: The Yankees are one of three teams Manny Machado will visit, presumably after the Winter Meetings. It’s the Yankees, Phillies, and White Sox. Some #MysteryTeams are reportedly involved as well. [Jon Heyman]
  • 4:32pm: Three-team trade talks between the Yankees, Mets, and Marlins are not progressing. The Mets are still pursuing J.T. Realmuto but it sounds they’re looking for ways to get it done without trading one of the best pitchers in baseball. [Jon Morosi]
  • 11:46am: There’s a scenario in which the Yankees trade for J.T. Realmuto, have him split time at catcher and DH with Gary Sanchez, and move Giancarlo Stanton to the outfield. This strikes me as a “hey, Mets, if you don’t do this three-team deal soon we’re just going to keep Realmuto for ourselves” bluff, but we’ll see. [Joel Sherman]
  • 11:41am: The Yankees remain interested in a reunion with Zach Britton. The expectation is his market will begin “narrowing down” by the end of the Winter Meetings, so nothing is imminent. Britton has said he’d like to return to the Yankees. [Brendan Kuty]
  • 11:32am: J.A. Happ has several two-year offers in hand and is still looking for a third year. He’s indicated he’ll sign with the first team that offers that third guaranteed year. It’s been reported the Yankees won’t go there. [Jeff Passan]
  • 10:55am: The Yankees are open to moving Miguel Andujar. That would make sense in the construct of this Syndergaard-Realmuto three-team trade. In theory, the Yankees could trade Andujar to a pitcher and then sign Manny Machado. [Ken Rosenthal]
  • 9:30am: The Yankees and Reds had a “little talk” about second baseman Scooter Gennett. The left-handed hitting Gennett would be close to the ideal replacement for Didi Gregorius. The Reds want to trade him too, apparently. [Jon Heyman, Ken Rosenthal]
  • 9:30am: Eleven teams initially showed interest in Sonny Gray and the Yankees have now pared the list down and are focusing on trade talks with a select few teams. “We haven’t found the sweet spot yet,” said Brian Cashman. [Joel Sherman]

The Reds reportedly want to trade Scooter Gennett and he’s a great fit for the Yankees

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(Victor Decolongon/Getty)

In addition to pitching help, both another starter and relievers (plural), the Yankees also must find a Didi Gregorius replacement this offseason. Gregorius will miss an unknown length of time next year rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and the Yankees need someone to fill in. They can pursue either a shortstop or a second baseman thank to Gleyber Torres and his versatility.

Reds second baseman Scooter Gennett is arguably the best second baseman on the trade market, and, according to Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d), Cincinnati would like to trade him. Gennett will be a free agent next offseason and GM Dick Williams recently told Mark Sheldon that the two sides are not close to a contract extension. The Reds aren’t close to an extension with anyone, Gennett or otherwise.

“I wouldn’t expect it before the calendar turns (to 2019). There’s too much up in the air in terms of roster construction going forward. I don’t think you’ll see us working on any extensions for anybody. That’s not just Scooter specific,” said Williams to Sheldon. “… In the sense that we always remain open to good deals, if we find one that we really like. Flexibility is important to us. We will be careful about a lot of extensions.”

For what it’s worth, Sheldon says the Reds are “not actively looking to trade” Gennett, though that doesn’t mean Rosenthal’s report is wrong and it doesn’t mean Sheldon’s report is wrong either. Both could be correct. The Reds could want to move Gennett without actively shopping him. He’s really good! Williams probably gets phone calls about Gennett all the time and doesn’t need to shop him. Interested teams come to him.

Earlier today the Yankees were connected to Gennett for the first time though I imagine they checked in long ago. Brian Cashman checks in on everyone. We know the Yankees and Reds have discussed Sonny Gray this offseason — the Yankees reportedly asked for top prospect Taylor Trammell, which was a nice try — and I’d be willing to bet Gennett’s name came up at some point. Not necessarily in a Gray-for-Gennett proposal. Just in general.

Anyway, with Gennett reportedly on the market — it makes sense that he would be if the two sides are not close to a contract extension — the Yankees should pursue him aggressively. A lot of contenders need second base help (Angels, Brewers, Dodgers, Nationals, Rockies) and once free agents start coming off the board, the Gennett bidding war could heat up, and that’s a bad thing for New York. A few more thoughts on this.

1. Gennett fits the lineup perfectly. The Yankees could use another left-handed hitter to balance out their righty heavy lineup, but, as far as I’m concerned, hitter quality should trump hitter handedness. I will happy take another quality right-handed hitter over a mediocre left-handed hitter who is in the lineup simply to provide balance.

Gennett is the best of both worlds. He’s a quality hitter and he’s a left-handed hitter. Offensively, Gennett posted near identical 2017 and 2018 seasons, and the end result was a .303/.351/.508 (124 wRC+) batting line with 50 homers in 1,135 plate appearances. A few more walks (6.3%) would be nice, but it’s hard to complain about that production. Gennett doesn’t strike out excessively (21.1%) and check out his spray chart:

Line drives to all fields with power to the pull side, something that is handsomely rewarded at Yankee Stadium. Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is a pretty good place to hit. It’s not Yankee Stadium though. Add in a playable .277/.317/.426 (96 wRC+) batting line against lefties and you’ve got a rock solid left-handed hitter who hits for average and hits for power, and would help balance the lineup. An ideal offensive pickup, really.

2. Gennett does offer some versatility. Although he is a natural second baseman, Gennett has moved around the field a little bit, most notably spending some time at third base and in the two corner outfield spots since joining the Reds. That would come in handy once Gregorius returns, though I am firmly in the “worry about that when the time comes” camp with Gregorius. Worry how the pieces fit once Sir Didi is healthy.

I think the Yankees should prioritize defense when looking for a Gregorius replacement. The numbers say Gennett is average to a tick below at second base and, well, that wouldn’t fit the whole “prioritize defense” idea, now would it? Given his bat though, I think you can overlook the less than stellar glovework, at least to some degree. I wouldn’t accept Miguel Andujar level defense at second base to get Gennett’s bat. But league average defense? That’ll do.

I should mention at some point that Gennett is only 28. He turns 29 in May. This isn’t a 31 or 32-year-old player we’re talking about here, someone at increased risk of age-related decline at the plate and in the field. Gennett is right smack in what should be the prime of his career and expecting another peak year from him in 2019 (say average-ish defense with a 120 wRC+ or thereabouts) doesn’t strike me as unreasonable at all.

3. The Yankees might recoup a draft pick after the season. Gennett will become a free agent next offseason and, if he repeats his 2017-18 efforts in 2019, he would at worst be a serious qualifying offer candidate. Marwin Gonzalez, DJ LeMahieu, and Jed Lowrie will shed some light on this. Their contracts this winter will help set Gennett’s market next offseason.

The perfect world scenario has the Yankees trading for Gennett, getting a great season from him, then making him the qualifying offer and scoring a draft pick to help replenish the farm system. Chances are that won’t happen though. There’s so much that can go wrong between now and then. Consider the free agent compensation rules:

  • Gennett signs a contract worth $50M+: Yankees get a supplemental first round pick.
  • Gennett signs a contract worth less than $50M: Yankees get a supplemental second round pick.
  • Yankees pay luxury tax in 2019: Yankees get a supplemental fourth round pick no matter what.

There’s also the possibility Gennett accepts the qualifying offer. Neil Walker hit .282/.347/.476 (124 wRC+) with 23 homers during his age 30 season with the Mets in 2016 and he accepted the $17.2M qualifying offer. Given the last two years, 2019 Scooter Gennett could put up very similar numbers to 2016 Neil Walker at a similar age, and next winter the qualifying offer might be over $19M. Accepting it is a very real possibility.

Point is, there is a scenario in which the Yankees recoup a high draft pick when Gennett become a free agent next winter. I think the chances of that are quite small, but it is possible, and it should factor into the trade calculus. Ultimately, the Yankees are in win now mode, and I think the priority has to be what Gennett can do for them on the field. If they get a draft pick after the season, great. If not, so be it.

(Joe Robbins/Getty)

4. The Reds have made some very bad decisions lately. Most notably, the Reds got nothing for Zack Cozart. The guy hit .297/.385/.548 (140 wRC+) with 24 homers and Gold Glove defense in 2017 and the 94-loss Reds did not cash him in as a trade chip. They kept him all year, didn’t make him the qualifying offer after the season, and watched Cozart walk away as a free agent for zero return. Brutal. Just brutal.

Also, the Reds rejected trade overtures for the fun but ultimately not very valuable Billy Hamilton the last few years, only to non-tender him last week. They also pulled Matt Harvey back on trade waivers (the Brewers claimed him) in August and didn’t trade him. Harvey’s a free agent now. Cozart is the most egregious mistake here but these are three players who generated trade interest who the Reds instead let go for nothing. Goodness.

On one hand, I’d like to think the Reds learned from those mistakes and are determined not to repeat them with Gennett. On the other hand, the Hamilton non-tender was literally eleven days ago, so maybe not. Cincinnati’s front office doesn’t really seem to have its act together. Perhaps they don’t understand Gennett’s true value and thus sell him short. It would be pretty rad if the the Yankees can benefit from one of those very bad Reds decisions.

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There is at least one “what about Sonny Gray for Scooter Gennett?” question in the mailbag inbox each week and no. Just no. Gennett is actually good. Gray was good once upon a time but not this past season. Also, Gennett is actually good. Did I mention that part? The Reds have made some bad moves lately but even they have to realize trading one year of their All-Star second baseman for one year of a reclamation project starter is a bad idea. If they’re open to it, the Yankees should do it and yell “no trade backsies” as quickly as possible.

That doesn’t mean Gray can’t be part of a Gennett trade package, however. Last offseason’s Andrew McCutchen trade seems like decent enough framework for a Gennett trade. McCutchen certainly had a superior track record to Gennett, but, at the time of the trade, he was essentially a +3 WAR player with one year and $14.75M on his contract. Gennett is a +3 WAR player now who MLBTR projects to make $10.7M in his final year of team control. Not a perfect match but I think we’re in the ballpark.

The Giants gave up a big league reliever (Kyle Crick) and a non-top 100 prospect (Bryan Reynolds) to get McCutchen. Would Gray and a non-top 100 prospect (Domingo Acevedo? Mike King? Clarke Schmidt?) be enough to get Gennett? Maybe. The difference here is McCutchen’s market was fairly limited. A lot of teams — a lot of contenders — could be after Gennett. No matter the cost, it’s worth finding out. Realistically, Gennett may be the best option to replace Gregorius aside from signing Manny Machado.