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Food For Thought: Brett Gardner

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That up there comes from Baseball Analytics, and shows how often Brett Gardner swung at a pitch by location. It was no better than 50-50 that he would swing at a pitch right down the middle last year, but it was basically a one-in-five chance that he’d swing at something on the corners or at the knees. They also have graphs for 2008 and 2009, which allows you to see his plate discipline progression. Here’s a gif of the three, maybe that’s easier to compare. It’s pretty obvious that he’s gotten better and better at laying off stuff out of the zone, always a plus, but Gardner can be pretty infuriating when he lets a something hittable go by in a hitter’s count.

Food For Thought: BA’s Top 100 Prospects Lists

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Scott McKinney at Royals Review posted a comprehensive study of Baseball America’s top 100 prospects lists from 1990 through 2003, attempting to find some patterns in prospect success. The above graph comes from his post and shows the average annual WAR accumulated by a player during his first six big league seasons (his time under team control) versus his rank in the various top 100 lists. As you can see, it’s rather sharp drop off after the top five or six prospects, and the difference between a prospect ranked in the middle of list and the guy ranked 100th really isn’t all that big, about a quarter of a win per season.

This is pertinent to Yankees fans because when BA’s 2011 top 100 list comes out next Wednesday, Jesus Montero figures to rank among the five best prospects in the game. McKinney found that 52.5% of the top 20 prospects go on to become successful big leaguers (defined as 2.0 WAR per season), an excellent success rate when you consider that approximately 70% of all top 100 prospects flame out. Furthermore, position players ranked in the top ten turn into a successful big leaguer a whopping 62.7% of the time, and a “superior player” (2.5 WAR or more) a little more than 35% of the time. Based on history, there’s better than a 50-50 chance that Montero will turn into a useful player, and better than a one-in-three chance that he develops into no worse than above-average player. I like those odds.

McKinney breaks the data down a million different ways, so I highly recommend clicking through and giving his post a read. It turns out that of the 34 Yankees farmhands to appear in BA’s top 100 lists through the years, 73.5% end up busts. That sounds like a lot, but it’s exactly middle of the pack. The Indians lead the way with a 42.4% success rate and the Giants trail everyone at 13%. Again, make sure you check it out. That’s some great stuff right there.

Food For Thought: Andruw Jones

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It’s too bad the Yankees aren’t getting the 20-something version of Andruw Jones, huh? Of course, he and Reggie Jackson accumulated their WAR in very different ways. The fielding component of Jones’ WAR (+24.0) is the third highest of all time, trailing only Brooks Robinson (+29.4) and Mark Belanger (+24.1). Ozzie Smith is right behind him at +23.9. That’s some serious company. Reggie was all offense (just +7.5 defensive WAR), but a run scored is the same as a run saved in the end.

Jones should be a fine fourth outfielder in pinstripes, but a far cry from his days in Atlanta. That assumes the Yankees will actually, you know, get him under contract one of these days. He agreed to terms about three weeks ago now, and we’re still waiting on the physical and signature. There’s a chance the team is just waiting until Spring Training begins, so they could simple slide Damaso Marte on the 60-day DL rather than sacrifice someone of the 40-man roster. That’s pretty much all the official business left for the offseason, which happily ends tomorrow.

(related graphs)

Food For Thought: AL East Attendance

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That graphic comes courtesy of Beyond The Box Scores’ Justin Bopp, and it shows AL East attendance figures over the last ten seasons. The Yankees have dominated in this department, accounting for no less than 25% of the division’s total attendance during the last decade. Keep in mind that Fenway Park has a capacity of 37,000 (give or take), while the new Yankee Stadium can accommodate just over 50,000. The ballpark in the Bronx at 85.2% capacity still boasts more people than a sold out Fenway.

Attendance is the root of the money making machine known as the Yankees, because it allows them to sell ad space at ridiculous prices and reap the benefits of the YES Network cash cow. As long as the team remains competitive, attendance will be strong and so will the revenue streams.

Food For Thought: Rafael Soriano

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That graph comes courtesy of Mike Fast, who published it as part of this Baseball Prospectus article. You’ll need a subscription to read the whole thing, but the gist of the article is that Rafael Soriano and Mariano Rivera aren’t so different. Both guys throw cutters as their primary weapon, which you can see in the graph, but the most interesting part was that Soriano started throwing the pitch more to left-handed batters in 2010 than he had in the past. The result was a few more popups and the best performance against lefties (.267 wOBA against in 2010, .313 wOBA pre-2010) of his career. Before 2010, Soriano went after southpaws with a little two-seamer away that resulted in ground balls and ultimately more hits.

Soriano will undoubtedly see his performance regress a little bit in 2011 because a 16.7% infield fly ball rate and a .212 BABIP is unsustainable, but there’s tangible evidence that suggests his improvement against lefties is real. He altered his approach against them, and the early returns look good.

Food For Thought: Robbie Cano

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Baerga’s sudden and rather scary fall from grace was due in part to knee issues, but otherwise he was just a guy that peaked very early. Cano’s development path has been a bit more traditional, with his age 26 and 27 seasons being his two best to date. Middle infielders can unexpectedly fall off, perhaps due to the beating they take turning the double play at second, but I would be surprised if Cano just all of a sudden stopped being a productive big leaguer like Baerga.

(related graphs) (h/t Matt Imbrogno)

Food For Thought: Nick Swisher

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One thing to remember when looking at the graph, O’Neill didn’t really hit his stride until he joined the Yankees (at age 30) and got a bit of a boost from the short rightfield porch. Paulie had just one season better than 3.0 WAR through age 29 while Swish has exceeded that level four times in his six full seasons. There’s no denying that Swisher was a better player than O’Neill through that age, but I suspect the second half of his career won’t be nearly as good. O’Neill was simply a much better pure hitter in terms of making hard contact. That’s not to say Swish will fall off a cliff, I just don’t expect him to be as productive into his mid-to-late 30’s as O’Neill was. Not many are.

(related graphs)