River Avenue Blues

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Mariano Rivera becomes first unanimous Hall of Famer

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(Maddie Meyer/Getty)

The National Baseball Hall of Fame has four new members. Earlier tonight the Hall of Fame and the Baseball Writers Association of America announced Mariano Rivera, Mike Mussina, Edgar Martinez, and the late Roy Halladay have been voted into the Hall of Fame. They’ll be joined by Harold Baines and Lee Smith during induction weekend. Baines and Smith were voted in by the Today’s Game committee.

“Mariano was a fierce competitor and a humble champion, which has made him such a beloved baseball legend,” said Hal Steinbrenner in a statement. “Success and stardom never changed Mariano, and his respect for the game, the Pinstripes and for his teammates and opponents alike makes this day such a celebration of his legacy. There will be many more great and talented relief pitchers, but there will never be another like him. This is another incredible achievement for Mariano, and a day like today brings me great pride knowing he wore the Pinstripes for each and every game of his remarkable career.”

Here’s the video of Rivera and his family getting the phone call with the news:

Rivera appeared on all 425 ballots and is the first unanimous selection to the Hall of Fame. I can’t believe it. Never thought it would happen. It is stunning. Rivera is also the first player originally signed or drafted by the Yankees to be voted into the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA since Mickey Mantle and Whitey Ford were voted in back in 1974. (Phil Rizzuto and Joe Gordon were Veterans Committee selections.) Here are the seven highest voting percentages in history:

  1. Mariano Rivera: 100.00%
  2. Ken Griffey Jr.: 99.32%
  3. Tom Seaver: 98.84%
  4. Nolan Ryan: 98.79%
  5. Cal Ripken Jr.: 98.53%
  6. Ty Cobb: 98.23%
  7. George Brett: 98.19%

No other player received at least 98% of the vote. Not Hank Aaron (97.83%), Babe Ruth (95.13%), Willie Mays (94.68%), or Ted Williams (93.38%). Rivera is of course deserving of a perfect voting percentage. He is the greatest reliever in baseball history and it’s not all that close. Especially not once you include his postseason numbers. Consider the all-time postseason win probability added leaderboard:

  1. Mariano Rivera: +11.7
  2. Curt Schilling: +4.1
  3. John Smoltz: +3.6
  4. Andy Pettitte: +3.5
  5. Jon Lester & David Ortiz: +3.2 (tie)

“It’s humbling to think of the incredible journey that Mariano has had over the course of his life — his unassuming beginnings in a Panamanian fishing village to pitching for the Yankees under the brightest lights with the world watching,” Brian Cashman said in a statement. “I speak for every Yankees fan when I say how fortunate we were to have had him on our side for so long. Clearly his World Series rings and longtime statistical dominance testify to his standing among the greats to ever play our sport. But no matter how big a star he became, he never failed to carry himself with unerring professionalism and class. Mo was always someone who I could point to and say, ‘That’s what a Yankee should be like.’”

Rivera retired with a 2.21 ERA — his 205 ERA+ is far and away the best in history among pitchers with at least 1,000 innings pitched (Clayton Kershaw is second with a 159 ERA+) — and a record 652 saves in 1,283.2 regular season innings. He also posted a 0.70 ERA and 42 saves in 141 postseason innings, and 31 times in those 42 saves he recorded at least four outs. Bonkers. A deserving Hall of Famer through and through.

As for Mussina, he became a star with the Orioles and had more wins (147 to 123), starts (288 to 248), and innings (2,009.2 to 1,553) with Baltimore than he did with the Yankees. He was still a great Yankee, however, pitching to a 3.88 ERA (114 ERA+) in eight seasons in pinstripes. Mussina never won a Cy Young or a World Series, but he is one of the ten best pitchers since the mound was lowered 50 years ago, and now he’ll assume his rightful place in Cooperstown.

“I’m so happy to see Moose recognized for his incredible career. Accomplishing what he did while spending all 18 of his seasons in the ultra-competitive AL East is remarkable,” Cashman added. “Unlike the big arms that dominate today’s pitching landscape, Mike was a quintessential craftsman who played up to his strengths and hunted for the weaknesses in his opposition — before that level of preparation was a commonplace thing to do. More importantly though, he was a gamer, plain and simple. He wanted the ball, and did everything within his power to get himself ready to contribute. I don’t get too invested in players’ individual milestones, but I was thrilled that he won 20 games in his final season. He deserved that validation then just like he deserves the validation he’s going to get this summer in Cooperstown.”

I guess it’s fitting Martinez and Halladay are going into the Hall of Fame the same year as Rivera. Edgar is pretty much the only hitter who solved Mariano. Hit .579/.652/1.053 in 23 plate appearances against him. Good gravy. Halladay had a seven or eight-year stretch as the best pitcher in baseball and, as Tom Verducci wrote in 2013, Rivera helped Halladay refine his cutter. Verducci says the Yankees fined Rivera in kangaroo court for that. I was not sad when Halladay got traded to the National League. Not at all.

Andy Pettitte received 9.9% of the vote and will remain on the ballot another year. I don’t think Pettitte is a Hall of Famer but I also didn’t think he’d receive such a low voting percentage. Five percent is needed to remain on the ballot another year and Pettitte cut it close this year. Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada dropped off the Hall of Fame ballot in their first year of eligibility in recent years. Pettitte gets another chance.

Former Yankee Roger Clemens (59.5%) continued to gain Hall of Fame support in his seventh year on the ballot but again fell short of the 75% threshold needed for induction. So did Barry Bonds (59.1%) in his seventh year on the ballot. Fred McGriff, who the Yankees drafted then traded as a prospect, received 39.8% of the vote in his final year of Hall of Fame eligibility. The BBWAA did not vote him in, but don’t worry, one of the new eras committees surely will. The full Hall of Fame voting results are available on the BBWAA’s site.

Next year Derek Jeter will join the Hall of Fame ballot and, like Rivera, he is lock for first ballot induction. Will he be unanimous? Maybe! Former Yankees Bobby Abreu, Eric Chavez, Kyle Farnsworth, Jason Giambi, Raul Ibanez, Lyle Overbay, Brian Roberts, and Alfonso Soriano are also due to join the ballot next year. Abreu will get some stathead support. I can’t imagine any of those guys coming close to induction though.

Mariano Rivera Should be Baseball’s First Unanimous Hall of Famer

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G.O.A.T. (Getty)

There are four notable former Yankees eligible for election to the National Baseball Hall of Fame in 2019. Two will almost certainly never be elected. Andy Pettitte, a beloved fan favorite, simply doesn’t have the case and Gary Sheffield’s more compelling case is not translating into votes. Of the two remaining, Mike Mussina should already be enshrined—and 2019 may finally be his year. That leaves Mariano Rivera, about whose candidacy there is no doubt. He will be inducted in 2019, but for a player like Rivera, mere induction is not enough: he deserves to be the first player unanimously voted into the Hall of Fame.

Mike listed why he will not receive that honor a few weeks ago, and the reality is that he is right. Odds are a voter or two will strategically create a spot on their 10-spot ballot for a player who may need to clear the 5 percent threshold to remain on the ballot in 2020 by leaving off near-lock Mariano. But deserves to be and will be are different arguments, and on the merits alone, there is simply no compelling case to be made for leaving Mariano off of even a single ballot.

Rivera pitched 1,283.2 innings in his 19-year career (1996-2013), almost all of them in the 8th or 9th inning of close games. He was on the mound for the final play of an MLB record 952 games, recorded another MLB record 652 saves and compiled the best league-adjusted ERA (2.21 ERA, 205 ERA+, 49 ERA-) for any pitcher with over 1,000 innings pitched in the history of baseball. He walked only 2 men and allowed per 7 hits 9 innings pitched for a clean 1.000 WHIP, and, most impressively, gave up one home run every 18 innings pitched. All of this in the steroid-era against many of the game’s most fearsome hitters.

This translates to a 56.2 bWAR, which is the most WAR compiled by a reliever by a truly laughable amount. Jay Jaffe’s JAWS ranks him second, but that’s because Dennis Eckersley’s total is skewed by his years as a starter. As Mike wrote, among pitchers with 80 percent or more of their appearances in relief, Rivera is first in WAR—Hoyt Wilhelm is second at 50 WAR in more 1,000 more innings, and if you squint, you can see Goose Gossage’s 41.9 WAR in 3rd place. Rivera’s contemporaries in the top 30, Tom Gordon (34.9) Joe Nathan (26.7), Billy Wagner (27.7), Trevor Hoffman (26.7) and Jonathan Papelbon (23.5) are not even close.

That is especially noteworthy because of an obsession among baseball writers to anoint his successor, even when Rivera himself was still dominating. A Google search of “next Mariano” reveals that Roberto Osuna, Zach Britton, Joba Chamberlain, Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen and Jonathan Papelbon have all been dubbed baseball’s next Rivera. The best of these comparisons occurred while Rivera was playing, and almost always ended in a humorous fashion.

That’s because of almost superhuman longevity, which is worth detailing in a quick exercise by highlighting three seasons in the beginning, in the middle and very end of his career.

At age 26, Rivera logged what is one of the most dominant seasons in relief in modern baseball history. In 107.2 IP he pitched to a 2.09 ERA (240 ERA+) with a 1.88 FIP, 10 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched and surrendered only 1 home run. He was worth, according to Baseball-Reference, an absurd 5 wins as a multi-inning setup reliever and was a key player in the shocking 1996 World Series run.

In 2006, a decade later, 36-year-old Rivera posted another 4 win season. In 75 innings had a 1.80 ERA (252 ERA+) despite only recording 6 strikeouts per 9 innings (but walked only 1 per 9) and surrendered 3 home runs. This was hardly a notable season at the time; it was just another season of Mariano Rivera being Mariano Rivera.

Finally, at age 43 in 2013 (a year after a season-ending ACL injury), Rivera had 44 saves in 64 innings. His 2.11 ERA (190 ERA+), nearly 8 Ks per 9 and impeccable control (1 walk per 9) remained in line with his career numbers; he retired because of the travel, not because of any regression or diminished returns. This, more than anything else, is what separates Mariano Rivera from his peers—three seasons, each almost ten years apart, in which he was virtually unhittable.

But if Rivera’s regular season achievements have no comparisons, it is the postseason where the separation is most stark. There’s almost no point repeating the laundry list of achievements, but two things stand out: 1) Rivera got better across the board in October (he had a 0.70 ERA) and 2) in 141 postseason innings (two full seasons), Rivera surrendered only two (2!!) home runs. He won 5 World Series, was on the mound for the final out of four consecutive World Series and had some of the most heroic performances in the recent Yankee dynasty. The unfavorable endings of the both 2001 World Series and 2004 ALCS are so memorable not just because of their natural excitement, but because so much of the action came against Rivera—it’s as if nobody could believe their eyes.

All of this adds up to a simple, undeniable fact: we will never see another Mariano Rivera. He is, by any standard, the most dominant relief pitcher in baseball history, the baseline against which all other relievers are judged. His postseason heroics will never be matched, his longevity defies belief and, of course, he did it all with one pitch for two decades.

Tom Kelly, the manager of the 1996 Minnesota Twins, best summarized him after an early season matchup against the ’96 version of Rivera: “He should be in a higher league. Ban him from baseball; he should be illegal.” Voters now have a chance to actually put him in a higher league by making him baseball’s first unanimous Hall of Famer.

After all, if Rivera pitched without peers throughout his career, that is how he ought to be inducted to the Hall of Fame: a cut above the rest, having accomplished what nobody else could do, or will ever do again.

Andy Pettitte is an all-time great Yankee but he is not a Hall of Famer, and there’s nothing wrong with that

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(Al Bello/Getty)

In four weeks and five days MLB and the BBWAA will reveal the 2019 National Baseball Hall of Fame class. Mariano Rivera is a lock for induction. Edgar Martinez seems like a good bet for induction in his tenth and final year on the ballot. Rivera and Martinez going in the same year is kinda funny seeing how Edgar is pretty much the only hitter who solved Rivera (.579/.652/1.053 in 23 plate appearances!).

Among the many players on the ballot who will not receive enough votes for induction into the Hall of Fame next year is Andy Pettitte. As of this writing Ryan Thibodaux’s ballot tracker says Pettitte has appeared on only 11.3% of submitted ballots — that is eight votes on 70 public ballots — well below the 75% needed for induction. Pettitte should clear the 5% needed to remain on the ballot another year. Induction won’t happen in 2019 though.

And that’s fine. Pettitte is, clearly, on the very short list of all-time great Yankees pitchers. He is the franchise leader in strikeouts (2,020) and tied with Whitey Ford for the franchise lead in starts (438). Pettitte is top three in pitching WAR (+51.4), wins (219), innings (2,796.1), and a bunch of other things. And he was a key component of five World Series championship teams. He didn’t just come along for the ride and win a ring as a bystander.

The Yankees retired No. 46 for Pettitte three years ago and deservedly so. The Hall of Fame standard is much higher than the “the Yankees should retire his number” standard though, and, to me, Pettitte doesn’t meet that Hall of Fame standard. I can sum this up in three points.

1. Pettitte had the longevity but not the peak. Let’s do the ol’ blind comparison test, shall we? Mystery Pitcher here is a fellow lefty who pitched in the same era as Pettitte.

G W-L IP ERA ERA+ K% BB% bWAR fWAR
Pettitte 531 256-153 (.626) 3,316 3.85 117 17.4% 7.3% 60.7 68.9
Mystery Pitcher 518 214-160 (.569) 3,283.1 3.81 117 13.6% 5.4% 60.3 51.9

Give up? Mystery Pitcher is Mark Buehrle. Buehrle was really good! Had he not spent most of his career on some crummy White Sox teams, he’d have more wins and more postseason appearances to his credit, but that’s not really his fault. He did his part. His teammates didn’t. Does anyone think Buehrle is a Hall of Famer? Nah. A Hall of Very Good pitcher through and through, and gosh, it sure is tough to tell him apart from Pettitte, statistically.

For all intents and purposes, Pettitte was a consistently above-average pitcher for a very long time but he was never top of the league and on the short list of the game’s best. Seventeen times in 18 big league seasons Pettitte posted at least a 100 ERA+. Only six times in those 18 seasons did he best a 112 ERA+, however, and in three of those six seasons he made no more than 22 starts. Andy’s career is one of longevity, not top of the game dominance, and you typically need both to land in Cooperstown.

2. His postseason resume doesn’t boost his candidacy much. Five World Series rings is crazy impressive, and Pettitte is the all-time leader in postseason wins (19 — leads by four) and innings (276.2 — leads by 58.1), but his overall postseason body of work was more really good than great. He has a career 3.81 ERA in October, which more or less matches his regular season 3.85 ERA. Pettitte’s had some postseason gems (like this one and this one) but also some postseason stinkers (like this one and this one).

There is definitely something to be said for just how much Pettitte pitched in the postseason. The addition of the LDS round in 1995 and the fact the Yankees were so good for so long allowed Andy to rack up those postseason innings and he did answer the bell. I mean, a 3.81 ERA in 276.2 postseason innings is pretty bonkers. That’s more than an extra season’s worth of innings in his career. So perhaps knocking him for being merely very good and not truly great in October is wrong. It just seems to me there’s not enough October excellence to push Pettitte into Cooperstown.

3. It doesn’t matter that he’s better than someone who’s already in. With the Hall of Fame, it’s very easy to fall into the “well if this guy is in then that guy should be in” trap, and, with Pettitte (and others), the Jack Morris comparisons are inevitable. Pettitte compares very favorably to Morris statistically — he has him beat handily in both versions of WAR (60.7/68.9 to 44.0/55.8) despite throwing roughly 500 fewer innings — so, if Morris is in, Pettitte belongs to be in too, right?

Well, no. That’s the wrong way to look at this. For starters, Morris maxed out his 15 years on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot and was not voted into Cooperstown. The Modern Era committee had to vote him in last year. Yeah, he passed, but only because the teacher gave him an extra credit assignment. Secondly, Morris has the highest ERA (3.90) and third lowest ERA+ (105) among full-time pitchers in the Hall of Fame. A case can be made he’s the least accomplished pitcher in Hall of Fame. Morris was great! But this shouldn’t be the standard for induction.

When that’s the sort of comparison that has to be made to get Pettitte into Cooperstown — Andy would have the second highest ERA among Hall of Famers should he get voted in — well, it’s a losing argument. The voters would be doing a disservice to fans and the Hall of Fame by lowering the standards for induction based on a handful of players who probably shouldn’t be in but are in. Morris is one of them. Pettitte would be as well.

* * *

Personally, I don’t get too upset about performance-enhancing drugs, but many voters do, and Pettitte is an admitted human growth hormone user. There is definitely selective outrage with PEDs — generally speaking, we only get outraged when the players we don’t like use them — but some Hall of Fame voters undoubtedly will hold it against Pettitte when the time comes to submit their ballot.

In Pettitte’s case, this wouldn’t be PEDs keeping a surefire Hall of Famer like Roger Clemens or Barry Bonds out of the Cooperstown. Pettitte is more of a borderline candidate. The current (small sample) voting totals make it clear the voting body doesn’t consider him a strong candidate. Even without the PED stuff — lots of people seem willing to gloss over that with Andy anyway — he wouldn’t be a lock for induction. The performance doesn’t make an overwhelming case for Cooperstown.

There’s nothing wrong with being an all-time great Yankee and something short of a Hall of Famer. It doesn’t take away from what Pettitte accomplished and it certainly doesn’t change the way I feel about him or how I felt watching him pitch. Those memories aren’t tarnished. Maybe Pettitte will pull a Morris and get voted into Cooperstown somewhere down the line. If he does, cool. If not, I’ll live. He’s still the greatest Yankees starter I’ve ever seen and a huge part of my formative years as a baseball fan.

George Steinbrenner not voted into Hall of Fame by Today’s Game committee

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(AP)

There are two new members of the National Baseball Hall of Fame. Earlier tonight the Hall of Fame announced Harold Baines and Lee Smith have been voted into Cooperstown by the 16-person Today’s Game committee. Harold Baines? Harold Baines. Congrats to Baines and Smith, the latter of whom very briefly played for the Yankees in 1993.

George Steinbrenner was on the ten-man Today’s Game ballot this year and he did not receive enough votes for induction. Not even close. He received fewer than five votes. Twelve are needed for induction. This was George’s fourth appearance on a Hall of Fame ballot and the fourth time he failed to get in. He’ll be up for another vote again in a few years.

Warts and all, I believe Steinbrenner is a Hall of Famer. He is a key figure in baseball history — I don’t mean to dump on Baines, who was a very good player for a very long time, but you can skip right over him in the story of baseball history and you can’t skip George — and I don’t think we should ignore the parts of history we don’t like. Steinbrenner is a baseball icon.

Anyway, Albert Belle, Joe Carter, Will Clark, Orel Hershiser, Davey Johnson, Charlie Manuel, and Lou Piniella were the others on the Today’s Game ballot this year. Piniella, a former Yankees player and manager, received eleven votes. One vote short of induction. Everyone else on the ballot received fewer than five votes.

The Today’s Game committee is one of four eras committee that replaced the old Veterans Committee a few years ago: Today’s Game (1988 to present), Modern Era (1970-87), Golden Days (1950-69), and Early Baseball (pre-1950). The committees are made up of Hall of Famers, executives, and historians.

Mariano Rivera won’t be the first unanimous Hall of Famer and that’s okay

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(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

In about eight weeks the 2019 National Baseball Hall of Fame induction class will be announced. The ballot was announced last week. Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Edgar Martinez, and Mike Mussina are the notable holdovers. Martinez is on the ballot for the tenth and final time and should get in after receiving 70.4% of the vote last year. Mussina is on the ballot for the sixth time and received 63.5% of the vote last year. He might get in this year.

Among the first time eligible players on the ballot this year is Mariano Rivera — has it really been five years since this already? — who is of course a lock for induction. Rivera will clear the 75% threshold needed for induction with ease. He is the greatest closer of all-time and no one is close. Trevor Hoffman? Please. Rivera allowed 38 fewer runs in 194.1 more innings, and their postseason records do not compare. A strong case can be made Rivera is the greatest postseason performer ever. Eleven earned runs in 141 innings? Good gravy.

Rivera will sail into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. He will not be the first unanimous Hall of Famer, however. I can say that with near certainty right now. Here, before we move any further, are the highest voting percentages in Hall of Fame history:

  1. Ken Griffey Jr.: 99.32%
  2. Tom Seaver: 98.84%
  3. Nolan Ryan: 98.79%
  4. Cal Ripken Jr.: 98.53%
  5. Ty Cobb: 98.23%
  6. George Brett: 98.19%

No other Hall of Famer received at least 98% of the vote. Not Hank Aaron (97.83%), not Babe Ruth (95.13%), not Willie Mays (94.68%), not Ted Williams (93.38%). Could you imagine not voting for one of those guys? What sort of logic pretzel do you have to twist yourself into to justify not voting for Aaron or Mays? Good grief.

Anyway, Rivera will (probably) not be voted into the Hall of Fame unanimously simply because the odds are so stacked against him. There are 400-something Hall of Fame ballots each year — there were 422 last year — and chances are at least one of those 400-something voters will exclude Rivera. I see four possible explanations for not voting for Rivera and I’d rank them in this order in terms of likelihood:

  1. There are only ten spots on the ballot, and, since Rivera is a lock, a voter with a full ballot opts to use one of those ten spots on a player who is on the bubble and needs more help, like Mussina.
  2. Rivera being “only a one-inning reliever” is held against him. This is an old school way of thinking but it does still happen nowadays. There are currently only six relievers in the Hall of Fame, including starter-turned-reliever Dennis Eckersley.
  3. An old school voter clings to the belief that if guys like Cy Young, Yogi Berra, and Joe DiMaggio weren’t first ballot Hall of Famers (it’s true!), no one deserves to be a first ballot Hall of Famer, and doesn’t vote for Mo. (“If this guy wasn’t unanimous, no one should be unanimous” fits here too.)
  4. Ignorance. A voter doesn’t believe Rivera’s body of work is worthy of induction. Silly? Absolutely. Possible? Also absolutely. I’d like to see someone make a genuine case against him. I’m not sure it can be done.

There is close to a zero percent chance No. 4 happens. Hall of Fame voters and awards voters aren’t as stupid as fans seem to believe. There are 400-something ballots and I refuse to believe a single one of those 400-something voters will genuinely believe Rivera’s body of work is not worthy of inclusion in the Hall of Fame. I can’t see it.

No. 1 is far and away the most likely reason Rivera will not be a unanimous Hall of Famer. “Gaming” the ballot absolutely happens. In 2015, Mike Berardino did not vote for Randy Johnson or Pedro Martinez because he was comfortable assuming they would get voted in anyway, and he opted to use those two spots on his ten-player ballot on other players, specifically Alan Trammel and Larry Walker. I’m sure other voters have done something similar over the years.

Every few years we go through the “this guy should be the first unanimous Hall of Famer” thing and it never pans out. Rickey Henderson should’ve been unanimous. Greg Maddux should have also been unanimous. Griffey should’ve been unanimous. Rivera should be unanimous. Lots of guys should be unanimous but none have been so far for various reasons. Some reasons are more justifiable than others. (I personally don’t agree with “gaming” the ballot but I respect the strategy.)

Ultimately, Rivera is going to cruise into the Hall of Fame this year with a voting percentage well north of the 75% threshold. I would be surprised if he doesn’t receive at least 90% of the vote, in fact. Rivera’s getting in and, at the end of the day, that’s all that matters. Unanimous? First ballot? Who cares. There’s no special wing in Cooperstown for first ballot guys and they won’t build one for unanimous players. Voting percentages aren’t even included on the plaque because that would be silly. The Hall of Fame is about the player, not the voters. You’re either in or you’re out, and those players are in.

Would I like to see Rivera be the first unanimous Hall of Famer? Of course. It would be cool as hell and it’s hard to come up with a more deserving player. Rivera wasn’t just great, he was historically great. He’s so far ahead of every other reliever in history that it’s not even funny. I mean, look at the career WAR leaderboard among players who made at least 80% of their career appearances in relief:

  1. Mariano Rivera: +56.3 WAR
  2. Hoyt Wilhelm: +50.1 WAR (in almost 1,000 more innings than Rivera)
  3. Goose Gossage: +41.9 WAR

And that doesn’t even include the postseason! Rivera is an all-time great and he carried himself with class throughout his career. He was a great ambassador for the game. You couldn’t pick a better player to be the first unanimous Hall of Famer, potentially. But it won’t happen though. The odds are against Rivera only because the numbers suggest it won’t happen. There are so many voters and every single one has to vote the same way for it to happen.

Rivera not getting into the Hall of Fame this year would be a travishamockery. That would be worthy of all the scorn and fury the internet has to offer. The voters get the slam dunks right though and Rivera is a slam dunk. He’ll be voted into the Hall of Fame this year, likely not unanimously, but that’s okay. Voting percentages and induction years are forgotten in time. The important this is we got to watch Rivera’s brilliant career and, as of next summer, he’ll find himself in Cooperstown alongside the all-time greats, right where he belongs.

Put Mike Mussina in the Hall of Fame

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Moooooose. (Nick Laham/Getty)

Aside from a few scattered trade rumors, new comments from Hal Steinbrenner and the usual free agent speculation, it’s a been a quiet week in Yankeeland—exactly what we’d expect at this time in the offseason. That relative tranquility means it as good a time as ever to revive the annual argument that former Yankee Mike Mussina belongs in the Hall of Fame.

Mussina was an excellent Yankee, sporting a 3.88 ERA (114 ERA+) across 1,553 innings and eight seasons. He was a 5 win pitcher in four of those eight seasons. He is one of the best pitchers to don the pinstripes in recent history and is among the very best free agent signings the Yankees have ever made—a fact that would come up more were his tenure, like Jason Giambi’s, not sandwiched in between championships. Also like Giambi, he played a pivotal role in keeping the Yankees alive in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS and paved the way for Aaron Boone’s heroism.

Mussina will enter 2019 in his 6th year as a potential Hall of Fame inductee with the odds in his favor: players need to be named on 75 percent of the ballots and Mussina’s share has grown steadily each year he’s been eligible. He came closest last year when he was named on 268 ballots (63.5 percent of the vote) and if you scan this year’s cast, it becomes clear that many of his SP peers have candidacies riddled with controversy over either steroids or more grotesque reasons.

In other words, Mussina has a good chance to finally be enshrined in 2019.

His candidacy is a bit of a strange one because his numbers and accolades don’t immediately stand out: he never won a Cy Young or World Series, never led the league in strikeouts and only once led the league in ERA and wins (in separate years, nonetheless). Moreover, he was never truly the best pitcher in a league he shared with Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson. But a deeper dive does reveal that Moose is indeed deserving of Cooperstown.

Mussina was a consistently excellent pitcher for 18 seasons, pitched entirely in the steroid-era AL East, compiling 270 wins, 2,813 strikeouts, a 3.68 ERA (123 ERA+) and 83 career WAR. The latter number ranks higher than Nolan Ryan, Tom Glavine and Curt Schilling, for what it is worth. He was just shy of reaching the 300-win, 3,000 strikeout club, but he retired after a 20-win 2008 season.

In addition to his trademark knuckle-curve and competitive spirit, Mussina boasted a deep arsenal—including a 4 seam fastball, cutter, changeup and splitter—that he could locate with ease, walking only 5.4 percent of the 14,593 batters he faced (2 per 9 innings pitched). He struck out nearly 20 percent of those batters and conceded less than one home run per 9 innings pitched in the heart of the steroid era. His repertoire was unique and it was filthy, the engine beneath a long and dominant career as a pitcher in the most offense-heavy era in league history.

There is something to be said for consistent excellence, and for a 12-season stretch from 1992-2003, that’s exactly what he was. Mussina averaged 215 IP a year with a 3.55 ERA (128 ERA+) over that stretch. For good measure, he sprinkled in remarkably similar seasons to that standard in both 2006 and 2008, rounding out a career worthy of Cooperstown by finally winning 20 games in a season at age 39 in his final season.

Baseball-Reference’s Hall of Fame Scores highlight the disconnect between the fact that Moose was never the league’s best pitcher but was consistently excellent and among the best. The Black Ink score assigns a score for each category in which a player led the league in a particular year. The average Hall of Famer has a score of 40; Mussina 15. But its Gray Ink score, which does the same for each category in which a player was among the top 10 in a particular year, is much more favorable: Moose scores a 250 while the average Hall of Famer scores 185. Jay Jaffe’s JAWs method, another Baseball-Reference tool, ranks him 29th all-time among starters.

In other words, Mussina was always among the best but never the best himself. Falling just short, unfortunately, was a trait that plagued his entire career. Dominant postseasons with the Orioles went to waste, as they did with the Yankees—Mussina started Game 5 of the 2001 World Series to help give the Yankees a 3-2 lead and won Game 3 of the 2003 World Series to give the Yankees a 2-1 lead, but they didn’t win another game in either series. And he famously gave up a 9th inning, two out, two strike base hit to Carl Everett to blow a perfect game in Fenway Park.

Enshrining Mike Mussina in the Hall of Fame will do more than make those near misses and close calls sting (just a little) less. It would also ensure that he is permanently recognized for what he absolutely was: one of baseball’s very best pitchers.

Friday Notes: Steinbrenner, Rule Changes, Prospect Rankings

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(NY Post)

The GM Meetings are over and now we have about a month to wait before all hell breaks loose at the Winter Meetings. If you haven’t checked it out yet, here’s the Official RAB 2018-19 Offseason Plan. I’m linking back to it here only because it took forever to write and I don’t want it to be forgotten about. Anyway, here’s some news to close out the week.

Steinbrenner on Today’s Game ballot

George Steinbrenner is on this year’s Today’s Game era committee ballot, the Hall of Fame announced. Harold Baines, Albert Belle, Joe Carter, Will Clark, Orel Hershiser, Davey Johnson, Charlie Manuel, Lou Piniella, and Lee Smith are also on the ballot. The 16-person committee will meet during the Winter Meetings next month and announce their Hall of Fame inductees (if any) on December 9th. Twelve votes are needed for induction.

“I think he is a Hall of Famer … (He) was very impactful. Both for this franchise and this industry and clearly a Hall of Famer from my viewpoint,” said Brian Cashman to Ken Davidoff earlier this week. This is the fourth time Steinbrenner is up for a Hall of Fame vote, with his most recent rejection coming in 2016. I think George belongs in the Hall of Fame and I can understand why some might be on the fence, but, ultimately, when you tell the story of baseball history, you can’t skip over Steinbrenner. Warts and all, he was a towering figure in the game.

Rule changes on hold until end of offseason

According to Ronald Blum, discussions regarding potential rule changes for the 2019 season have been put on hold, likely until right before the start of Spring Training. MLB and the MLBPA must agree on rule change proposals, however, if the union rejects an on-field rule change, the league can unilaterally implement the proposal in one year. Here are the rule changes that were discussed during the GM Meetings, via Blum and Jon Morosi:

  • A limit on defensive shifts.
  • A 20-second pitch clock.
  • Restrictions regarding the use of technology during games.
  • Moving the trade deadline to mid-August and eliminating trade waivers.
  • Alterations to the 10-day DL because teams abuse the hell out of it.

The Astros were busted recording the other team’s dugout during the postseason, and there have been issues with teams using technology to steal signs for years now. Remember the Apple Watch thing with the Red Sox last year? Like that. MLB and the MLBPA want to stop that. Joel Sherman writes that, after the Astros incident, MLB put an official in each team’s replay room during the postseason, and did not allow teams to pipe their center field camera angle into their replay room. Those measures could become permanent. We’ll see.

As for everything else, I am a hard no on limiting shifts and a hard yes on a pitch clock. Pitchers take too damn long. Speed it up. Limiting shifts though? Nah. I am against anything that limits creativity. Did MLB ban breaking balls when they found out half the league couldn’t hit sliders? Nope. The strong will survive. Moving the trade deadline seems like a solution in search of a problem. What’s wrong with trade waivers? The dog days of summer can be a real grind. Trade waivers help keep things interesting. How much longer do we need to give teams to decide to buy or sell at the deadline? July 31st is fine.

Three Yankees on top Appy Prospects list

Baseball America (subs. req’d) continued their look at the top 20 prospects in each minor league with the rookie Appalachian League not too long ago. Rays SS Wander Franco claimed the top spot. Three Yankees made the list: OF Everson Pereira (No. 9), RHP Luis Medina (No. 13), and RHP Luis Gil (No. 19). RHP Luis Rijo, who went to the Twins in the Lance Lynn trade, is No. 14. I wrote about Pereira earlier this week. Here’s a snippet of Medina’s scouting report:

What keeps scouts interested with Medina is a fastball that sits in the 95-96 mph range and touches 100, with impressive plane and sink. He’s also got a 60-grade curveball and a changeup that could become a third plus pitch as well … Medina has a good arm action but simply struggles to repeat his delivery with any kind of consistency.

Medina is still only 19 and his numbers with rookie Pulaski this year weren’t good. He threw 36 innings with a 6.25 ERA (6.46 FIP) and high strikeout (25.5%) and walk (25.0%) rates. That’s 47 strikeouts and 46 walks in 36 innings. He also uncorked 12 wild pitches, so yeah. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: Medina has some Dellin Betances in him. The stuff is elite. The control and delivery are far from it. The potential reward is very high but he is long-term project.

As for Gil, the Yankees acquired the 20-year-old from Minnesota in the Jake Cave trade, and he had a 1.37 ERA (3.28 FIP) with 35.8% strikeouts and 15.4% walks in 39.1 innings with Pulaski. “Gil’s best pitch is a fastball that sits in the mid 90s and touches triple digits, exploding in the zone late on hitters out of a loose arm action. He throws a fringe-average curveball in the low 80s and is still in the early stages of developing a changeup,” says the write-up. I’ve seen reports describe Gil’s curveball as above-average, so who knows. Gil is just another lower level hard-thrower in a system full of them.