J.A. Happ Archives - Page 2 of 9

Four ways the 2019 Yankees could be better than the 2018 Yankees

February 13, 2019 by Mike

Pitchers and catchers have reported to Tampa and the long journey that is the 2019 Yankees season is underway. Position players will report Monday and the first Grapefruit League game will be played one week from Saturday. Soon the beautiful monotony of Spring Training baseball will set in and we’ll all eagerly await the regular season. I love this time of year.

The Yankees, despite not signing Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, had one of the most active offseasons in baseball, one that saw them sign five notable free agents and make one significant trade. Believe me, the Harper and Machado thing irritates me as much as anyone, but you can count on one hand the number of the teams who have done as much as the Yankees this winter.

Have the Yankees done enough to close the gap on the Red Sox? I think so. You’re welcome to feel differently. The Yankees won 100 games last season and that’s an awful lot. It’s not often teams win 100 games in back-to-back seasons (only the 2017-18 Astros and 2004-05 Cardinals have done it within the last 15 years), but, with a talented roster, the Yankees have a chance to do it. Would be cool.

Now that Spring Training has opened, this is as good a time as any to take stock of the 2019 Yankees, and discuss why we should expect the 2019 Yankees to be better than the 2018 Yankees. The 2018 Yankees were really good! I see four reasons why the 2019 Yankees could be even better. Here are the four in no particular order.

Healthy Judge and Sanchez

For all intents and purposes, the 2018 Yankees played their final 61 regular season games without Aaron Judge. His wrist was broken by an errant pitch on July 26th, in the 101st game of the year, and he did not return until the team’s 147th game on September 14th. And, when he did return, he stunk. Judge went 9-for-47 (.220) with two doubles and one homer (.341 SLG) in 13 regular season games following the wrist injury.

Gary Sanchez was not good overall last season and apparently he wasn’t healthy either. His shoulder bothered him enough that he needed offseason surgery, and of course he spent roughly two months on the disabled list with groin trouble. It would be easy to blame the injuries for Gary’s down season. I’m sure they played some role in his poor year, particularly the shoulder, but there were some other issues at play as well.

The Yankees can go into this season reasonably expecting Judge and Sanchez to be healthy. Judge’s injury was a fluke and he showed in the postseason the wrist was strong. Sanchez’s shoulder has been repaired and he is already hitting in the cage and catching bullpens, so he’s on track for the regular season. The Yankees will ease him into Grapefruit League games because there’s no reason to push it.

Injuries happen and Judge and Sanchez could miss time again this year. That’s baseball. Neither has a chronic issue that dogs them year after year though — this isn’t Greg Bird with multiple years of ankle problems, you know? — and I think it’s reasonable to assume good health going into 2019. In this case, that means 90 or so more man games from Judge and Sanchez this year than last year.

Full seasons of Happ and Britton

At this time last year we were talking about how having full seasons of Sonny Gray, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle would help the 2018 Yankees be better than the 2017 Yankees, so yeah, this game can humble you quick (one outta three ain’t bad, right?). The logic is sound though. They had this good player for half the season last year and now they’ll have him for a full season this year.

I do worry a bit about Happ’s declining fastball spin rate because he relies so heavily on his fastball, but he was also rock steady following the trade last year, and he is essentially replacing the revolving door of fifth starters. Domingo German, Luis Cessa, Jordan Montgomery, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Chance Adams combined to allow 116 runs in 30 starts and 136.2 innings last year. They averaged 3.9 runs and 4.6 innings per start for 30 starts. I kid you not.

Happ has made at least 25 starts every year since 2014 and he’s posted a (much) better than average park adjusted ERA every year since 2015. Even at age 36, I feel like Happ is a safe bet to make 25 or so league average starts this year. Given who he’s replacing, that’s a big upgrade. With Gray, we saw some warning signs late in 2017, when he lost the plate and seemed overwhelmed. That wasn’t the case with Happ last year. He came over at the deadline and fit right in.

Britton got better and better as he got away from his Achilles surgery last year and now he’ll have a healthy and normal Spring Training after a healthy and normal offseason. “I went home (after the ALDS), took a day off and started working out the next day and I started throwing a few weeks earlier than I normally do … I just wanted to get rid of some bad habits I (developed after the injury) last year and get ready to go for wherever I was gonna play,” said Britton to Dan Martin the other day.

Full seasons of Gray and Kahnle didn’t help the Yankees last season, but Happ and Britton are more Robertson than Gray and Kahnle given their track records, are they not? Gray had a few moments that made you wonder what was up in 2017. Kahnle never found a set role before his monster postseason. Happ and Britton came over last year and never really missed a beat. They transitioned seamlessly and having them for six months rather than two months is significant.

Paxton replaces Gray

Gray was supposed to be the upside starter. The guy with multiple years of cheap team control who had flashed ace ability in the past. The Yankees hoped to bring it out of him permanently and the opposite happened. He was a disaster last season. James Paxton is cut from a similar cloth in that he’s flashed ace ability over the years and the Yankees are hoping he’ll pitch at the level consistently.

Paxton misses more bats than Gray ever did — Paxton had a 32.3% strikeout rate last year whereas Sonny’s full season high is his 22.6% strikeout rate in 2017 — and he’s been better the last two years than Gray was in his two years prior to the trade. As for the “he can’t handle New York thing,” I don’t know what to tell you other than James Paxton is not Sonny Gray. They’re different people. One has no impact on the other.

What we do know is Paxton is better able to miss bats and limit hard contact than Gray. We know that because he’s done it the last few years:

Paxton in 2018: 32.3 K% and .284 xwOBA
Gray in 2018: 21.1 K% and .316 xwOBA

Paxton from 2016-18: 28.2 K% and .276 xwOBA
Gray from 2016-18: 20.8 K% and .320 xwOBA

I was a big Sonny Gray fan and I was thrilled when the Yankees made the trade in 2017. I feel better about Paxton now than I did Gray then because his strikeout and contact management tendencies are better. We know that, despite all his natural talent, Sonny was not working out for the Yankees. He was terrible. Paxton is not guaranteed to succeed just because he’s not Gray, but I feel really good about what he’s bringing to the table. The potential upgrade is enormous.

Stanton is entering Year Two

Over the years we have seen more than a few players join the Yankees and struggle in their first year with the team, only to rebound in year two. Struggle might be too harsh here, but that first year in pinstripes wasn’t smooth sailing. Here are some recent examples, with an emphasis on big name middle of the order bats (wRC+ and WAR):

	Year before NYY	Year 1 with NYY	Year 2 with NYY
Carlos Beltran	131 and +2.7	97 and -0.5	119 and +1.7
Jason Giambi	193 and +9.2	175 and +6.6	149 and +5.0
Brian McCann	122 and +2.8	94 and +2.3	106 and +2.9
Alex Rodriguez	151 and +9.2	131 and +6.6	174 and +9.1
Gary Sheffield	163 and +7.3	141 and +3.8	137 and +2.4
Mark Teixeira	152 and +6.9	142 and +5.1	128 and +3.4

Giambi, Sheffield, and Teixeira all hit the ground running in year one. Beltran and A-Rod in particular were quite a bit better in their second season with the Yankees though, and McCann as well. Even Hideki Matsui went from a 109 wRC and +0.2 WAR in year one as a Yankee to a 140 wRC+ and +3.0 WAR in year two. That first season in New York can be a slog.

Giancarlo Stanton is now entering year two as a Yankee. All those new team, new teammates, new coaches, new city, new league, new ballpark feelings go away. Maybe they don’t go away, necessarily, but everything is more familiar now. Baseball players are creatures of habit and Stanton went from a largely irrelevant franchise to the center of the baseball universe last year. That had to be a tough adjustment. Now he knows what to expect.

I don’t know about you but I am fully expecting Giancarlo to have a big 2019 season. He wasn’t bad last year by any means — most players would kill to have .266/.343/.509 (127 wRC+) with 38 homers and +4.2 WAR be considered a down year — but Giancarlo went into 2018 with a career .268/.360/.554 (144 wRC+) batting line, so we know there’s more in there. Will he ever hit 59 homers again? Probably not. That is a lot of homers. Stanton turned only 29 in November though. He’s right smack in the prime of his career and I expect a big second season in New York.

* * *

Keep in mind that the Yankees are built around a strong young core, and when you have players this young and this talented, the potential for natural improvement is awfully exciting. Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres with a better understanding of how pitchers are attacking them could be even more productive this year. Maybe Luke Voit really can do that across a full season. Luis Severino is still only 24! That second half last season could be a valuable learning experience.

To me, the biggest difference between the 2019 Yankees and the 2018 Yankees is replacing Gray and the fifth starter revolving door with Paxton and Happ. Those stand out as two significant upgrades. Healthy Judge and healthy Sanchez will undoubtedly help as well, ditto a full season of Britton, and Stanton without that first year adjustment period. It’s difficult to improve on a 100-win team. With Paxton and Happ, the Yankees have done it, and there are reasons to believe several incumbent players are poised for better seasons as well.

Hot Stove Rumors: Machado, Tulowitzki, Andujar, Loup, Happ

December 20, 2018 by Mike

There are less than two weeks to go in 2018 and the Yankees are still searching for a Didi Gregorius replacement and bullpen help. At least they’ve got their rotation sorted out. Anyway, here are the latest hot stove rumblings.

Machado visits Yankees

As expected, Manny Machado visited Yankee Stadium yesterday as part of his free agent tour. Here’s the obligatory scoreboard photoshop. He visited the White Sox on Monday and is visiting the Phillies today. George King and Jon Heyman report Machado met with Randy Levine, Brian Cashman, Aaron Boone, and new special advisor Carlos Beltran — CC Sabathia was also at the ballpark, though he works out there in the offseason, and I’m not sure whether he actually met with Machado — and everyone went out to dinner last night. Same deal as Patrick Corbin a few weeks ago, basically.

The Yankees and Hal Steinbrenner have made a pretty big deal about Machado having to explain his non-hustle comments when they meet face-to-face, so I assume that happened during the 90-minute meeting at Yankee Stadium yesterday. I have no idea what he could’ve said to make everyone happy, but whatever. Machado is certainly familiar with the ballpark from his time as a division rival — he’s the first and still only player to hit a ball into the camera row in center field — so the visit wasn’t so much about touring Yankee Stadium. He knows the park already. The meeting was about both sides getting to know each other in a way they couldn’t as opponents.

Yankees scouted Tulowitzki at workout

The Yankees were among the eleven teams on hand earlier this week to watch Troy Tulowitzki work out in Southern California, reports Tim Brown. Tulowitzki fielded ground balls at shortstop and took batting practice during the workout. “I have no idea (what teams are interested). I don’t control that. My job’s to be accountable, to play the game. Time will tell. Talk is talk,” he said. Tulowitzki hasn’t played since July 2017 due to various injuries.

According to Brown, Tulowitzki said he’s willing to play second or third base, but he has no interest in being a utility guy. He wants to start. The Yankees could offer Tulowitzki a middle infield spot until Gregorius returns — I’d rather put Tulowitzki at second than short at this point of his career — though it’s awfully risky given his injury history and the fact he hasn’t hit at a league average rate since 2016. In a vacuum, signing Tulowitzki makes sense. In reality, it seems the Yankees need more of a sure thing and Tulowitzki needs a stronger playing time guarantee.

Teams convinced Yankees want to trade Andujar

Rival executives are convinced the Yankees want to trade Miguel Andujar this offseason, according to Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d). The Padres are seen as a potential landing spot. Keep in mind this is a secondhand rumor. Rosenthal’s passing along what he’s heard about the Yankees from other teams, not the Yankees directly. We heard last week the Yankees are open to moving Andujar, though that was as part of the reported J.T. Realmuto-Noah Syndergaard three-team blockbuster.

I am open to trading Andujar in the sense that I am open to trading pretty much any player in the right deal, and for a guy like Miggy, the right deals mean getting an absolute stud in return. Trading Andujar simply because they don’t believe he’ll ever improve defensively would be a mistake. The offensive potential is special. Keep all the young bats. All of ’em. Build around the young bats and spend money on pitching. If you spend money on a pitcher and he breaks, so what? The Yankees print money. Trade a young bat for a pitcher and he breaks, well, you’re not getting that bat back.

Yankees have checked in on Loup

The Yankees have checked in on free agent lefty reliever Aaron Loup, reports Dan Martin. Interestingly enough, Loup was among those high spin, high swing-and-miss rate relievers I identified earlier today, so I guess it makes sense that they checked in on him. Loup owns a career 3.49 ERA (3.49 FIP) with a 21.7% strikeout rate in 322.2 innings, almost all with the Blue Jays. He’s a pure situational reliever who’s been much better against lefties (.278 wOBA) than righties (.329 wOBA).

A few years ago I would’ve been cool with signing Loup as a left-on-left matchup guy. Not so much now though. Lefty specialists are starting to disappear because using a precious roster spot on a player with such limited utility doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Starting pitchers are throwing fewer and fewer innings with each passing season and teams are carrying eight full-inning relievers nowadays. Guys like Loup, who is a good but not truly great matchup guy, are becoming harder to find. I’d be surprised to see the Yankees carry someone like Loup next year.

Happ turned down three years to return to Yankees

According to Rosenthal (subs. req’d), lefty J.A. Happ turned down at least one contract offer with three guaranteed years to return to the Yankees. It’s unclear which team made that offer. The Phillies and Braves were said to be in the mix, as were the Angels, who Jeff Fletcher says offered two years and $28M with a third year vesting option. Happ returned to the Yankees on a two-year, $34M contract with a $17M third year option that vests with 27 starts or 165 innings in 2020.

“The chance to win was high on (my) list. I feel like this was a place that you come to the ballpark to win every day. I really appreciated that. I feel like it was a good fit to come back,” said Happ to Bryan Hoch earlier today. There have been a few instances of players taking less money to sign with the Yankees in recent years — Andrew Miller turned down more money from the Astros and Chase Headley turned down more money from an unknown team — and it seems Happ did the same. (Surely the three-year offer was worth more than $11.1M per year, right?) The $17M annual salary did seem a little high to me, and I assume the Yankees traded a few extra bucks to avoid that third guaranteed season. I’m cool with that. I didn’t love the idea of guaranteeing Happ’s age 38 season in 2021.

Yankees re-sign J.A. Happ, designate Bridwell for assignment

December 17, 2018 by Mike

December 17th: The contract is finally official. The Yankees announced it earlier today. Happ gets $17M in 2019 and $17M in 2020 with the $17M vesting option for 2021. Joel Sherman says the option vests with 165 innings or 27 starts in 2021, which are quite reasonable terms. There is no buyout on the option, so Happ comes with a $17M luxury tax hit through the life of the contract.

To clear space on the 40-man roster, the Yankees designated righty Parker Bridwell for assignment, the team announced. He was claimed off waivers from the Angels a few weeks ago. I had a feeling one of the out of minor league options arms (Bridwell, Luis Cessa, Domingo German, A.J. Cole) would get the roster axe for Happ and Bridwell it is. He could clear waivers and remain in the organization as a non-40 man roster player.

December 12th: After some confusion, it appears the Yankees and J.A. Happ have agreed to a reunion. Mark Feinsand reports the Yankees and Happ have agreed to a two-year contract with what sounds like a third year vesting option based on innings and starts. There’s no word on the money or terms yet. Joel Sherman says the deal could be announced tomorrow.

“A real pro,” Brian Cashman said to Ronald Blum when asked about Happ. “Had a veteran presence within that clubhouse, knew exactly what was necessary and brought it every five days in the most competitive division in all of baseball.”

As I wrote earlier today, I didn’t like the idea of a guaranteed third year at all, so I’m glad the Yankees and Happ were apparently able to compromise with a vesting option. Happ turned 36 a few weeks ago and guaranteeing multiple years to a pitcher that age is always risky. At least the Yankees were able to mitigate that risk somewhat.

Once this deal is official the Yankees will be slated to go into next season with Happ, Luis Severino, CC Sabathia, James Paxton, and Masahiro Tanaka as their five-man rotation in whatever order. That’s a rock solid rotation with upside in Severino and Paxton (and Tanaka). The Yankees still have Sonny Gray too, though I get the sense he’ll be gone before Spring Training.

This past season Happ threw 177.2 innings with a 3.65 ERA (3.98 FIP) between the Yankees and Blue Jays, and his 26.3% strikeout rate was a career high by 3.3 percent points. His 27 home runs allowed were also a career high (by five). Happ had a 2.69 ERA (4.21 FIP) in eleven starts and 63.2 innings with the Yankees after the trade.

With Happ back in the fold the Yankees can now focus on a Didi Gregorius replacement and the bullpen, plus general depth. A better sixth starter than Domingo German and Luis Cessa would be cool given Paxton’s and Sabathia’s injury histories. Will the Yankees pivot and go after Manny Machado or Bryce Harper? I sure hope so.

Thoughts after the Yankees agree to re-sign J.A. Happ

December 13, 2018 by Mike

J.A. Happ is returning to the Yankees. There was some confusion about that for a bit — Ken Rosenthal swings and misses less often than Jose Altuve, but that was a big ol’ whiff yesterday — but Happ and the Yankees have indeed agreed to a two-year contract with a third year vesting option. The deal is said to be worth at least $34M and possibly as much as $36M. Here are some thoughts on Happ’s return.

1. Filling out the rotation with Happ is fine if not a little underwhelming. I thought he was the best free agent starter still available so, in that sense, Happ is the best signing the Yankees could’ve made. Once the Yankees acquired James Paxton at that price though, I was really hoping they’d go big when filling that final rotation spot, and either spend big to get Patrick Corbin or swing a trade for Corey Kluber or Noah Syndergaard (the rumors got me excited, I won’t lie), someone like that. Alas, it did not happen. I can get not trading a young player(s) for Kluber or Syndergaard. Not spending on Corbin? That’s tougher to swallow seeing how they’re the Yankees and Corbin all but shouted from the rooftops that he wanted to wear pinstripes. Anyway, Happ is a solid Major League pitcher who can succeed in Yankee Stadium and the AL East, and really all the Yankees need from him is competence. Take the ball every fifth day and keep them in games. I was hoping that final rotation spot would go to someone with a chance to truly dominate more often than not, but those guys aren’t cheap, so the Yankees went for the next best thing. Like I said, Happ is fine if not underwhelming. It’s fine.

2. I am very glad the Yankees were able to avoid that third guaranteed year. I mean, Lance Lynn got three guaranteed years. Good gravy. Getting Happ at two years plus a vesting option is damn near a bargain given the Lynn contract. There are some worrisome indicators in Happ’s underlying numbers, plus he is 36, and pitchers have been known to fall apart quickly as they approach their 40th birthday. In this era of austerity, money and years matter, and locking a pitcher in for his age 38 season when we started to see signs of decline in his age 35 season doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. It’s one thing to offer Corbin a sixth year for his age 35 season. That sixth year is a long ways away and you’re getting what should be some peak years out of that contract. Happ’s contract covers what are typically decline years and the Yankees are just hoping he doesn’t decline too quickly. Keeping the deal as short as possible is the way to go when you’re signing a 36-year-old with over 2,100 professional innings on his arm. A one-year contract was never going to fly in this market. And, given Lynn’s contract, Happ seeking three guaranteed years was not unreasonable. The Yankees had to cave and give the second year. They avoided the third guaranteed year and that’s a win in my book.

3. On paper, this is the strongest Opening Day rotation the Yankees have had in several years, probably since 2010. FanGraphs projects the rotation as fourth best in the American League even before plugging Happ in, for what it’s worth. There is still a long way to go between now and Opening Day and things can change quickly — March is a particularly brutal month for elbow ligaments, for example — but, right now, it’s been a while since the Yankees had a rotation that looked this strong on paper. Luis Severino and James Paxton have true ace ability, Masahiro Tanaka has ace moments, Happ is solid, and CC Sabathia is #ActuallyGood. I swear, I have people yelling at me on Twitter and in the mailbag inbox acting like Sabathia has been putting up Bartolo Colon numbers the last few years and not Cole Hamels numbers. Maybe it all falls apart for Sabathia this year. If it does, the Yankees will deal with it. A one-year deal at $8M is basically zero risk. Anyway, the rotation right now is quite strong, and that’s what I’m trying to get at. There are definitely some injury concerns there, no doubt, but, when healthy, the Yankees will send a quality pitcher to the mound every night in 2019. Pretty cool.

4. That all said, I would love love love to see the Yankees continue to pursue another starter. I’m not saying they should give a Lance Lynn facsimile a three-year contract, but keep kicking the tires on guys like Kluber and Syndergaard, because they are true difference-makers, and there is always room in the rotation for someone like that. What about Yusei Kikuchi? He is only 27 and finding starts for him won’t be tough. The Yankees could bring him in as a sixth starter type who gets a regular rotation turn before really turning him loose next season. Finding a better sixth starter than Domingo German and Luis Cessa would be pretty cool. (I’m a Jonathan Loaisiga fan but the kid is a major injury risk and he’s never pitched at Triple-A. I’d rather not count on him for anything.) I thought Lynn would be a great long man/spot starter candidate but not on that contract. That’s the idea though. If not an ace like Kluber or Syndergaard, than a veteran swingman who can relieve or start like Lynn did for the Yankees last season. Looking over the list of free agents, does Francisco Liriano fit in that role? Maybe Derek Holland? Trevor Cahill would be the dream sixth starter pickup but it sounds like he’s going to get multiple years and a guaranteed rotation spot somewhere. “(Happ) doesn’t preclude us from being open-minded to any other options that develop over time, and in the meantime it does allow us to focus further on other aspects,” said Brian Cashman to Brendan Kuty yesterday. Cashman won’t close the door on another starter because he’d never close the door on another starter. I don’t think it’s a top (or even mid-range) priority though. I would be cool with looking for another starter though. I’d rather the Yankees have the rotation depth and not need it than need it and not have it.

5. Now that the Yankees have Happ back in the fold, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Sonny Gray on the move soon. Even with Brian Cashman making it crystal clear Gray will be traded at some point, it made sense to keep him around at least until the Yankees secured another starter. Trading Sonny only to strike out on a bunch of free agents and trade targets really would’ve stunk, you know? There is definitely an argument to made that the Yankees should keep Gray as a long reliever/sixth starter — getting dunked on by the general manager all offseason could be a hell of a motivator — but I just can’t see it at this point. The bridge has been burned and I have no reason to believe it will be rebuild. With Happ on board, trading Gray could happen very soon, because keeping him and his projected $9.1M salary just does not seem like something the Yankees will do at that point. That money will be spend elsewhere on the roster, either by taking money back in the inevitable Gray trade or signing a free agent (or trading for someone) later.

6. Does this signing happen if the Yankees don’t trade for Happ at the deadline? I think so, because they’re said to have liked him for a while, and they saw him up close plenty with an AL East rival the last few years. Plus the price was right on a short-term deal. The trade did give the Yankees a chance to learn more about Happ firsthand, however. They got to see his preparation, how he fit into the clubhouse, all that. That is not meaningless information. It’s important information, really, and it works both ways. The Yankees got to learn about Happ and Happ got to learn about the Yankees. They saw his preparation work and personality and he got to see the facilitates and how the Yankees do things. A pretty common theme the last few years is that players come to the Yankees and they don’t want to leave. Sometimes they do leave because that’s the business, but in recent years we’ve seen guys like Chase Headley, Todd Frazier, and Zach Britton all say they would love to remain with the Yankees after coming over as rentals at the trade deadline. Maybe the money and the fit is right and Happ would’ve signed with the Yankees anyway, even if he hadn’t finished the season in pinstripes. Or maybe he would’ve been a little tentative and stuck to his guns about the third guaranteed year because he didn’t know what he was getting himself into. I can’t imagine Happ’s short stint with the Yankees late this past season hurt the process at all. Rather, it seems like it may’ve helped the Yankees avoid that third guaranteed year because Happ knows what they’re about.

7. The Yankees will have to clear a 40-man roster spot for Happ — word is Happ’s deal could be announced today, and if that is the case, the team will have to open a 40-man spot right away — and the easiest move is designating one of the out of minor league options pitchers for assignment. Those are German, Cessa, Parker Bridwell, Tommy Kahnle, and A.J. Cole. German would be the last one of those dudes I’d cut. I’d dump Cole, personally, but is there really any difference between Cole and Cessa and Bridwell? Not really. Designating one of those guys for assignment is the easiest way to open a 40-man spot for Happ. I guess they could cut Kyle Higashioka or Tim Locastro, but nah. One of those out of options pitchers is the simplest route. (I’m still surprised the Yankees didn’t non-tender Ben Heller and re-sign him to a minor league contract while he rehabs from Tommy John surgery to clear a 40-man spot. Maybe Heller will get designated for assignment for Happ and clear outright waivers.)

8. It was reported late last night that the deal is worth $34M to $36M. Assuming it’s $36M, that’s an $18M luxury tax hit the next two years, and my quick math says the Yankees now have about $7M in wiggle room under next year’s $206M luxury tax threshold. That’s not much! The forthcoming Sonny Gray trade won’t necessarily clear his projected $9.1M salary — the Yankees could very well end up taking back money in the trade — but that money will go to another roster need one way or another. So, between the $7M in wiggle room and Gray’s projected salary, the Yankees have about $16M under the luxury tax threshold to find two relievers and a Didi Gregorius replacement, plus general depth. It seems like there’s just enough room for a top setup reliever reliever ($10M to $12M per year), a lower cost reliever, and a cheap Gregorius replacement. It has been clear all winter that signing Bryce Harper or Manny Machado would push the Yankees up over the luxury tax threshold. At this point they’ll probably have to go over the threshold to secure a second top reliever and/or a quality Gregorius replacement, someone like Scooter Gennett. I dunno, man. I just don’t know. We’ll see how Cashman & Co. address the rest of the roster now that Happ is back in the fold and the rotation is settled.

2018 Winter Meetings Rumors Thread: Wednesday

December 12, 2018 by Mike

The Winter Meetings are two days old and thus far the Yankees have been mentioned in one potential blockbuster, a three-team trade that would bring Noah Syndergaard to the Bronx, but that seems like a long shot. It always did. The Mets trading three years of Syndergaard to get two years of J.T. Realmuto doesn’t add up. The Yankees will (probably) have to come up with a starting pitcher another way.

“We have our comfort levels and if and whenever we do match up on the trade or free agent front, then we’ll have something to show for it, but there’s no guarantee that will happen anytime soon,” said Brian Cashman to Pete Caldera. “(A deal) could happen today. We’re very active. But at the same time, we’re disciplined about what we’re willing to do and what we’re not willing to do.”

In addition to the Syndergaard thing, we’ve learned the Yankees are open to trading Miguel Andujar, still have interest in Zach Britton, and will meet with Manny Machado and Bryce Harper at some point. The Harper meeting will take place during the Winter Meetings because he lives in Las Vegas. Machado will come visit the Yankees in New York. No moves so far this week but lots of chatter.

Here are Monday’s rumors and Tuesday’s rumors. Today is the final full day of the Winter Meetings — everyone will head home after the Rule 5 Draft tomorrow — so, if the Yankees are going to get a deal done in Las Vegas, it’ll probably happen today. Anyway, here are today’s Yankees-related rumors. This post will be updated throughout the day so check back often. All timestamps are Eastern Time:

7:07pm: Well, forget about a Lance Lynn reunion. The Rangers gave him a three-year deal worth $30M, according to multiple reports. Imagine?
5:31pm: “I’ve never heard the Yankees say (they’re out on Bryce Harper). It might be that they say things to you. I wasn’t there,” said Scott Boras today. Keep in mind Boras wants everyone to think the Yankees are in on Harper even if they’re not. [Ken Davidoff]
3:20pm: The Yankees remain in “active discussions” with the Reds about Sonny Gray. Cincinnati seems to be connected to everyone this winter, including Corey Kluber. [Jon Morosi]
3:18pm: The Yankees have discussed trade possibilities with the Indians regarding their starting pitchers. There is no traction at the moment because the asking price is quite high. [Marc Carig]
2:00pm: The Yankees have been in contact with Freddy Galvis‘ representatives. He’s an excellent defender with double-digit homer power but poor on-base skills (career .290 OBP). Obviously the Yankees are considering him as a potential Didi Gregorius replacement. [Joel Sherman]
11:14am: In addition to J.A. Happ, the Yankees are in the mix for Lance Lynn. I would be perfectly fine with Lynn as a long man/sixth starter type. As the Opening Day fifth starter? Nah. Seems like there’s enough interest in Lynn that he’ll get a rotation spot elsewhere and not have to settle for a swingman role with the Yankees. [Mark Feinsand]
9:56am: The Yankees have not yet given any thought to signing Troy Tulowitzki. The Blue Jays released Tulowitzki with two years and $38M remaining on his contract yesterday, so any team can sign him for the pro-rated portion of the league minimum. Tulowitzki did not play at all this past season due to heel trouble but he’s recovered and is working out this winter. [Brendan Kuty]
9:43am: Brian Cashman met with Adam Ottavino‘s agent last night. He is believed to be high on their wish list. Ottavino grew up in Brooklyn but I wouldn’t put much stock into the hometown thing. Money is usually the determining factor in free agency. [Joel Sherman]
9:30am: The Phillies are believed to be inching closer to a deal with J.A. Happ, who is holding out for a three-year contract. “They are bringing it,” said one executive. The Yankees have interest in a reunion with Happ but thus far have been unwilling to offer a third year. [George King]
9:30am: Internally, it was “never even much of a debate” for the Yankees to chase J.T. Realmuto. They value Gary Sanchez highly and he has four years of team control remaining whereas Realmuto only has two. [Joel Sherman]

The Yankees should stand their ground and not offer J.A. Happ a third year

December 12, 2018 by Mike

With Patrick Corbin and Nathan Eovaldi having signed with the Nationals and Red Sox, respectively, a strong case can be made J.A. Happ is the best free agent starter still on the market. It’s either Happ, Dallas Keuchel, or Charlie Morton. Morton was dogged by shoulder trouble late this year and Keuchel saw significant drops in his strikeout and ground ball rates in 2018. Maybe they’re better than Happ. He’s right there with them though.

Earlier today it was reported Happ and the Yankees agreed to a three-year contract, though that was incorrect — a rare Ken Rosenthal miss, that was — and Happ remains a free agent. Happ is said to have multiple two-year offers in hand, and the first team to offer that third guaranteed year will get him. He pitched well in pinstripes this past season and seemed to enjoy his time in New York, and the Yankees liked having him, so a reunion makes sense.

Happ turned 36 in October and he’ll pitch all of next season at that age. Asking for a three-year deal at 36 may seem to like a stretch, and perhaps it is, but it would not be unprecedented. The Dodgers gave Rich Hill a three-year contract a few weeks before his 37th birthday two years ago. Bartolo Colon got two years at age 39 and John Lackey got two years at 37. Happ seeking three years isn’t unreasonable. There’s some precedent here.

For the Yankees though, I believe they should hold their ground and stick to two years, or maybe compromise and have that third year be a vesting option based on innings pitched. Don’t guarantee that third year though. That third year covers Happ’s age 38 season and I think the Yankees should try to avoid that year for two main reasons.

1. His fastball is starting to lose a little something. And Happ sure does throw a lot of fastballs. More than seven out of every ten pitches Happ threw this past season were fastballs, the fifth highest rate in baseball, and that was not unusual. He’s been doing the fastball heavy thing for a few years now and it’s worked wonderfully. Can’t complain about the results. Happ did see a noticeable dip in velocity late this past season …

… so much so that his two lowest and three of his four lowest average fastball velocity months since Opening Day 2015 came in the final three months of 2018. Happ went from consistently sitting 92-94 mph from 2015-17 to sitting closer to 90-92 mph at the end of the 2018, and while that’s not a huge difference, this is likely just the start of the velocity loss. Pitchers lose velocity. That’s baseball. And once they start losing velocity, then tend to keep losing it.

Also, Happ’s fastball spin rate and whiffs-per-swing rate slipped this season — he went from getting no contact on roughly 30% of the swings against his fastball in recent years down into the low teens this year — and that’s a pretty big deal. A fastball heavy pitcher losing velocity and spin, and getting fewer empty swings, is a big deal. It is. The thing that makes the guy successful is not doing what it once did. That can happen to a pitcher this age.

2. Ground balls are coming down and home runs are going up. As Happ’s fastball lost effectiveness this season — and it happened gradually as the season progressed — the result was fewer ground balls and more home runs. Moving to Yankee Stadium contributed to the in-season home run rate increase but that’s kind of a problem, right? Because he would be calling Yankee Stadium home going forward. A graph:

This is all a long way of me saying there are some indicators in Happ’s underlying skills, particularly with his trademark fastball, that suggest his performance will start heading south. That doesn’t mean he will be unplayable next year or that I don’t want the Yankees to sign him. It just means there are some red flags. You’re not signing a guy for what he’s done, remember. You sign him for what he can do going forward, and Happ may not be able to do the things he was able to do as recently as last year. It happens with pitchers of a certain age.

For better or worse, the Yankees stuck to their guns with Corbin and Eovaldi. They reportedly capped their offer at five years for Corbin and he signed a six-year deal. They didn’t want to go beyond three years for Eovaldi and he wound up with four years. Perhaps the Yankees will only offer Happ two years and he’ll get that third year from the Phillies or the Braves or whoever. That one extra year has been a sticking point for the Yankees this offseason.

For a just turned 36-year-old pitcher, one year would be ideal. That won’t happen. It’ll take at least two years to get Happ and I can live with that. Three? That’s pushing it but that will (probably) be what it takes. Happ exhibited some worrisome trends in his age 35 season and now we’re talking about guaranteeing his age 38 season? After not wanting to pay Corbin in his age 35 season? Happ right now is older than Corbin will be when his six-year contract expires. Just think about that for a second.

With Corbin, I thought he was worth that extra year because he demonstrated top of the rotation (or close to it) skills this year, and a lefty who misses bats and gets grounders both at a comfortably above-average rate is a great fit for Yankee Stadium. Happ is going the other way, those missed bats and grounders are becoming harder to come by, and he’s also six years older. A sixth year for Corbin made sense to me to get that immediate upside on a win now team. I don’t believe Happ offers that same potential impact at this point. He’s solid and that’s not nothing, but I’m not sure it’s enough either.

Barring a surprise trade for Noah Syndergaard or Madison Bumgarner or someone like that, Happ is very likely the best starter the Yankees could add between now and Opening Day. That doesn’t mean they should go all out to acquire him. Signs point to some downside risk here, and although we didn’t see that downside this past season, it still exists. The Yankees stood their ground and didn’t give that one extra year to Corbin and Eovaldi. They should do the same with Happ, otherwise he might have them looking for a replacement in a year or two.

2018 Winter Meetings Rumors Thread: Tuesday

December 11, 2018 by Mike

Day One of the Winter Meetings came and went yesterday without much activity. The were two small signings (Billy Hamilton to the Reds, Tyson Ross to the Tigers) and several waiver claims. That’s about it. There were plenty of rumors, of course, and the Yankees were involved in a few of ’em. Brian Cashman admitted he’s been in touch with Manny Machado’s and Yusei Kikuchi’s agents, plus we learned the Yankees aren’t comfortable with a three-year deal for J.A. Happ. Can’t say I am either.

“The operation that George (Steinbrenner) was able to operate and navigate through is nowhere close to the one that Hal Steinbrenner has to operate and navigate through,” Cashman said to Ronald Blum. “It’s a convenient, easy story to write about us being different than the Boss’s Yankees, but the game’s completely different, too, And I think we’ve been operating in a different capacity because it’s a whole new world order.”

Late last night word got out the Yankees are discussing a three-team trade with the Mets and Marlins that would put Noah Syndergaard in pinstripes. J.T. Realmuto would go to Queens and I assume the Yankees would send prospects to Miami. A trade this complicated is always a long shot — surely the Mets have other ways to get Realmuto without giving up Syndergaard, right? — and that goes double when there’s a Yankees-Mets element involved. This would be pretty rad though.

Anyway, here are Monday’s rumors. We’ll again keep track of all the day’s Yankees-related rumblings right here in this post, so make sure you check back often. Remember, the Winter Meetings are in Las Vegas this year. It might take a little while before everyone on the West Coast wakes up and starts feeding rumors and hot stove news to us East Coasters. All timestamps are Eastern Time. Here’s the latest on Day Two of the Winter Meetings:

7:23pm: Brian Cashman confirmed that pretty much every player on the roster has been asked about in trades this offseason except Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. No one has the guts to ask about Judge, eh? There were some bad contract-for-bad-contract swap talks involving Jacoby Ellsbury. “Money laundering,” Cashman called it. [Bryan Hoch]
4:35pm: The Yankees are one of three teams Manny Machado will visit, presumably after the Winter Meetings. It’s the Yankees, Phillies, and White Sox. Some #MysteryTeams are reportedly involved as well. [Jon Heyman]
4:32pm: Three-team trade talks between the Yankees, Mets, and Marlins are not progressing. The Mets are still pursuing J.T. Realmuto but it sounds they’re looking for ways to get it done without trading one of the best pitchers in baseball. [Jon Morosi]
11:46am: There’s a scenario in which the Yankees trade for J.T. Realmuto, have him split time at catcher and DH with Gary Sanchez, and move Giancarlo Stanton to the outfield. This strikes me as a “hey, Mets, if you don’t do this three-team deal soon we’re just going to keep Realmuto for ourselves” bluff, but we’ll see. [Joel Sherman]
11:41am: The Yankees remain interested in a reunion with Zach Britton. The expectation is his market will begin “narrowing down” by the end of the Winter Meetings, so nothing is imminent. Britton has said he’d like to return to the Yankees. [Brendan Kuty]
11:32am: J.A. Happ has several two-year offers in hand and is still looking for a third year. He’s indicated he’ll sign with the first team that offers that third guaranteed year. It’s been reported the Yankees won’t go there. [Jeff Passan]
10:55am: The Yankees are open to moving Miguel Andujar. That would make sense in the construct of this Syndergaard-Realmuto three-team trade. In theory, the Yankees could trade Andujar to a pitcher and then sign Manny Machado. [Ken Rosenthal]
9:30am: The Yankees and Reds had a “little talk” about second baseman Scooter Gennett. The left-handed hitting Gennett would be close to the ideal replacement for Didi Gregorius. The Reds want to trade him too, apparently. [Jon Heyman, Ken Rosenthal]
9:30am: Eleven teams initially showed interest in Sonny Gray and the Yankees have now pared the list down and are focusing on trade talks with a select few teams. “We haven’t found the sweet spot yet,” said Brian Cashman. [Joel Sherman]