Oakland Athletics Archives - River Avenue Blues

The Cardinals, the Athletics, and two recent moves that could potentially impact the Yankees

December 26, 2018 by Mike

Baseball is a zero-sum game. There are only so many wins to go around and every win you add to your roster is a win you take away from everyone else. Everything is interconnected. The Yankees traded for James Paxton? Well, that impacted how the Mariners proceeded with the rest of their offseason, and thus how several other teams proceeded with their offseasons. Everything affects everything else.

In the annual mad transaction rush before the holidays last week, several moves were made that have an indirect impact on the Yankees. Some are more applicable to the Yankees than others, of course, but all those moves do change the offseason calculus for Brian Cashman & Co. Here are two recent transactions and their potential trickle-down effect on the Yankees.

Cardinals sign Andrew Miller

The Cardinals gave Miller a two-year contract with a vesting option to serve as their primary high-leverage reliever. He might close, he might set up, he might do a little of both. Miller joins flamethrower Jordan Hicks and rookie Dakota Hudson in the late innings for St. Louis. The Yankees reportedly had interest in a reunion with Miller and now he’s no longer available. Stinks.

Miller’s deal with the Cardinals is notable because, according to Alex Pavlovic, the Giants had been waiting for him to sign before exploring opportunities to trade their own lefty relievers, specifically Will Smith and Tony Watson. All the teams that lost out on Miller — that includes the Yankees, obviously — could now shift gears and discuss Smith and Watson with San Francisco. They might be the best lefties on the market other than Zach Britton.

Smith, 29, returned from Tommy John surgery and threw 53 innings with a 2.55 ERA (2.07 FIP) and very good strikeout (33.8%) and walk (7.1%) rates in 2018. Remove intentional walks and Smith had a 5.4% walk rate. That’s about as well as you could reasonably expect a pitcher to perform in his first year back from elbow reconstruction. Smith will be a free agent next winter and MLBTR projects a $4.1M salary in 2019. A bargain for a reliever of this caliber in his final arbitration year.

The 33-year-old Watson had a 2.59 ERA (2.45 FIP) in 66 innings this past season, and he too posted strong strikeout (27.6%) and walk (5.4%) rates. He was primarily a sinker guy with the Pirates back in the day but is now more of a four-seamer/slider pitcher, which has led to more strikeouts and fewer grounders. Watson has an unusual contract. He’s guaranteed only $9M from 2018-19 but a boatload of incentives could nearly double it.

The Yankees tried to sign Watson last offseason. Barring a change of heart (always possible), they likely still have some lingering interest. Watson’s contract is complicated and his $4.5M luxury tax hit could quickly become $7M thanks to the bonuses (the exact bonus criteria is unknown), but maybe that’s not a dealbreaker. Smith is younger and cheaper, and he was better this past season. That said, he’s only a year removed from Tommy John surgery.

Watson and/or Smith would both be strong additions to the bullpen and we know the Yankees are looking for two relievers. They may be left-handed, but they’re not strict left-on-left matchup guys. They can work full innings. Now that Miller’s off the board and the Giants are ready to gauge the market on their relievers, the Yankees could touch base and rekindle their interest in Watson, or try for Smith.

Athletics trade for Jurickson Profar

Profar was the centerpiece of my 2018-19 Offseason Plan but we never did hear anything about the Yankees having interest in him. Not this offseason, anyway. We’ve certainly heard it in the past. Instead, the rebuilding Rangers sent Profar to the Athletics in a three-team trade with the Rays last week. Long story short, Texas traded Profar for four Double-A prospects and some international bonus money.

The trade means two things for the Athletics. One, they will not re-sign Jed Lowrie. They have their second baseman in Profar. “Jed was huge … I cannot overstate how important Jed was to this team, and we certainly wish him nothing but the best as his career moves forward,” said A’s GM David Forst to Chris Haft following the trade. Profar will take over at second base and Oakland will redirect their money to starting pitching.

And two, longtime top prospect Franklin Barreto still doesn’t have a place to play. I thought the A’s would move on from Lowrie and install Barreto at second base, but nope, they added Profar. The soon-to-be 23-year-old Barreto has been a consensus top 100 prospect four years running and, prior to the 2018 season, Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked him as the 43rd best prospect in the game. Here’s a snippet of their scouting report:

Originally a shortstop, Barreto has spent time at second base in the minors and majors. He has the arm and range to play shortstop in the bigs, but is better suited for second because his arm at short can be a little erratic. As a hitter, he uses the whole field and has more power than you’d expect from someone his size (5-foot-10, 190 lbs.). He needs to improve his plate discipline to get the most from his above-average bat and surprising power. His plus speed makes him a basestealing threat … If he can become a bit more polished, he can be a first-division regular at second base.

Barreto has had some cups of coffee with the A’s the last two years, hitting .215/.252/.424 (79 wRC+) with seven homers in 151 MLB plate appearances. He’s spent most of the last two seasons in Triple-A and is a career .284/.342/.458 (113 wRC+) hitter with 34 homers in 192 games at the level. It seems like it’s time to see what Barreto can do at the MLB level, you know? Instead, the A’s traded for Profar to play second base.

I don’t blame Oakland one bit. As a small market team, their windows to win are relatively short, and Profar is much better able to help them capitalize on their current window than Barreto. And besides, it’s not like Profar is an older veteran. He’s a 25-year-old former super-elite prospect who seemed to come into his own this past season. There’s a reason he was included in my offseason plan. It appears Profar is about to really break out.

Anyway, the Profar trade means Lowrie has one less suitor, and it may mean Barreto is available in a trade. The Yankees need a middle infielder and they could now pursue Lowrie or Barreto. The A’s really need rotation help. Is there a Sonny Gray-for-Barreto trade framework that makes sense? Oakland has interest in a reunion with Sonny, remember. And if the two teams can’t find common ground in a Barreto trade, is Lowrie’s price right for the Yankees now that the A’s are out of the picture?

* * *

I thought about including the Dodgers releasing Homer Bailey in here as well but nah. He’s pitched so poorly the last few seasons (6.25 ERA and 5.13 FIP in 231.2 innings from 2014-18) that, even at the pro-rated portion of the league minimum as a released player, he doesn’t have many (any?) redeeming qualities. Yeah, Bailey would be a low risk pickup, but it’s also low reward. The Yankees have signed worse pitchers though, so who knows.

The Bailey thing would be whatever. Low cost, low risk, low impact, etc. The Giants putting their top lefty relievers on the trade market and Lowrie having one fewer suitor are not insignificant offseason developments, however. Ditto the Barreto thing if the Athletics do make him available. The Miller signing and Profar trade had nothing to do with the Yankees directly, but those moves do have a domino effect around the league, and the Yankees could be among the teams that benefit.

Yankees make one selection, get raided in 2018 Rule 5 Draft

December 13, 2018 by Mike

The 2018 Winter Meetings came to an unofficial close earlier today with the annual Rule 5 Draft. It is baseball’s way of ensuring players aren’t trapped in the minors indefinitely. The Yankees have a fairly deep farm system and it is no surprise then that they lost several players in this year’s Rule 5 Draft, mostly in the minor league phase.

Here are the full Rule 5 Draft results. Here are the players the Yankees lost:

Diamondbacks: RHP Nick Green (in MLB phase)
Athletics: OF Mark Payton (in minor league phase)
Cubs: RHP Alex Vargas (in minor league phase)
Phillies: RHP Gilmael Troya (in minor league phase)
Red Sox: RHP Anyelo Gomez (in minor league phase)
Royals: C Chris Rabago (in minor league phase)

As a reminder, players taken in the Major League phase of the Rule 5 Draft have to stick on their new team’s 25-man big league roster all next season, or be placed on waivers and offered back to their original team. Players taken in the minor league phase are just gone. There are no roster rules. Those teams get to keep those players.

Green, 23, came over from the Rangers in the Carlos Beltran trade and he is a personal favorite only because he has a funky cutter/sinker hybrid that helped him post to a 66.4% ground ball rate this season, highest in the minors (min. 130 innings). Green threw 132.2 innings with a 3.32 ERA (4.28 FIP) with 17.7% strikeouts and 11.1% walks this season, with most of that coming with High-A Tampa.

The D’Backs are rebuilding, the Paul Goldschmidt trade confirmed that, so I imagine Green will get a long look in Spring Training and have a chance to stick in their bullpen. Jumping from High-A to the big leagues is not easy, especially with a walk rate like that, but Green’s funky cut-sinker is a dominant ground ball pitch and he could have staying power as a reliever who pounds away with that one pitch.

Among the minor league phase losses, Payton is the most notable because he’s been in the system the longest. The 27-year-old spent most of the last three seasons in Triple-A and hit .259/.368/.401 (120 wRC+) with six homers in 62 games in 2018. A guy like Payton had little hope of cracking New York’s outfield in the near future. He has a much greater chance to reach the big leagues with the Athletics.

Going into the 2018 season I ranked Vargas as the No. 30 prospect in the farm system but clearly I overrated him. The Yankees never used him like a prospect this year. The 21-year-old bounced between the rotation and bullpen, from level to level. They sent him wherever an arm was needed, basically. Vargas threw 83 innings with a 4.01 ERA (4.07 FIP) with 14.3% strikeout and 4.6% walks this season, mostly with Low-A Charleston.

Gomez, 25, was selected and returned by the Braves as a Major League Rule 5 Draft pick last offseason. He threw only 7.1 innings with Triple-A Scranton this season before going down with a significant shoulder injury. The 21-year-old Troya showed some promise a few years ago but hasn’t taken that step forward. He’s yet to pitch above rookie ball. Rabago, 25, was a waiver claim from the Rockies late this year. He played only seven games in the organization, all with Double-A Trenton.

The Yankees did add two players in minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft, first grabbing righty Adonis De La Cruz from the Mariners. The soon-to-be 24-year-old is a converted outfielder who threw 57.1 relief innings with a 4.71 ERA (2.80 FIP) with 30.2% strikeouts and 7.7% walks in Low Class-A. The Yankees have had some recent success with minor league Rule 5 Draft picks, most notably turning Yefry Ramirez into a tradeable asset, so maybe they can do it again with De La Cruz.

According to Emily Waldon, the Yankees acquired outfielder Tyler Hill from the Tigers after the Rule 5 Draft. Detroit took him from the Red Sox in the minor league phase. Huh. Every year one or two players selected in the Major League phase get traded right after the Rule 5 Draft. I can’t remember the last time a minor league phase guy was flipped. Anyway, the 22-year-old Hill authored a .254/.348/.312 (95 wRC+) batting line with one homer and 27 steals in 124 High-A games in 2018. Sox Prospects calls him a “a bat-first, organizational player,” so there you go. The Yankees likely sent the Tigers cash or a similar organizational player in the trade.

So, all told, the Yankees did lose an interesting prospect in Green and some upper level inventory in Payton, Gomez, and Rabago in this year’s Rule 5 Draft. Green could still be returned. The other three plus Vargas and Troya are gone for good. I can’t find a scouting report on De La Cruz but a recently converted position player with a 30.2% strikeout is interesting enough. Hill’s an organizational guy who will help fill out rosters. Nothing exciting, but the Rule 5 Draft rarely is.

The Yanks have spoken to the A’s and Reds about Sonny Gray and it seems a trade could happen soon

November 19, 2018 by Mike

The 2018-19 offseason is still very young and we’re all still waiting to see how the Yankees will replace Didi Gregorius and upgrade their rotation. How they’ll do it, we don’t know. It’s still a mystery and that’s part of the fun. There is one part of the offseason that is not a mystery, however: Sonny Gray’s future. He’s getting traded. Brian Cashman couldn’t have made it any clearer.

“We are going to move him if we get the right deal because I don’t think it is going to work out in the Bronx. I don’t feel like we can go through the same exercise and expect different results,” said Cashman to Joel Sherman earlier this month. “There are enough teams that think highly enough of him … He is not a buy-low guy. All the data says he is not. He’ll be a good pitcher wherever he goes.”

Despite what Cashman said, Gray is a buy-low guy — a pitcher with Sonny’s resume coming off a bad year is the quintessential buy-low guy — and Jon Morosi reports the Athletics and Reds are trying to buy-low on him. The Yankees have spoken to both Oakland and Cincinnati about Sonny. Andy Martino adds there are “multiple offers” on the table and Cashman & Co. are currently sifting through them. Let’s talk this out a bit.

1. Does this pass the sniff test? Yeah, it does. When you first hear a rumor, it’s always good to take a step back and ask whether it makes sense, and this does. The A’s desperately need rotation help. They didn’t have anyone to start the Wild Card Game and, with Trevor Cahill a free agent and Sean Manaea likely to miss next season following shoulder surgery, their rotation depth chart looks like this:

Mike Fiers
Daniel Mengden
Frankie Montas
Chris Bassitt
Andrew Triggs

Yup, the A’s need rotation help. They’re not winning a free agent bidding war for Patrick Corbin or Dallas Keuchel and they’re probably not going to empty the farm system for James Paxton or Corey Kluber. Gray might be their best hope to acquire a potential impact starter. Oakland certainly knows Sonny and I’ve heard they asked about him at the trade deadline, but the Yankees weren’t ready to move on. There’s a fit now. Definitely.

As for the Reds, they don’t seem to make sense as a trade partner on the surface. The A’s won 97 games this past season and could contend next year. The Reds lost 95 games this past season and aren’t a move or two away from making a run at the NL Central title. Trading for one year of Sonny Gray doesn’t seem to fit the long-term plan, but GM Dick Williams recently said he wants to add two pitchers and he’s ready to be aggressive.

“I think we need to add two pitchers,” said Williams during a recent radio interview according to Bobby Nightengale. “I think this year we feel like we need to be a little more aggressive than (sitting back and waiting for bargains late in the offseason). By no means does it mean you can make sure you get a deal done but you have to be in front of these agents and these other teams talking more aggressively.”

The Reds definitely need rotation help and they may see Gray as an opportunity to add a just turned 29-year-old with upside that they may be able to sign long-term. Also, their new pitching coach Derek Johnson was Sonny’s pitching coach at Vanderbilt. Johnson left the Brewers for the Reds a few weeks ago, so there’s a connection there. The Reds have some added insight into Gray. Trading for one year of Gray may seem weird, but it’s not the craziest thing in the world.

2. Tomorrow may be a “soft” deadline. Tomorrow is the deadline for teams to set their 40-man roster for the Rule 5 Draft. The Yankees have two open 40-man spots right now and no significant prospects to protect. Justus Sheffield, Chance Adams, and Stephen Tarpley were added to the 40-man during the season. Erik Swanson, Kyle Holder, and Nick Green are the notables who could be protected tomorrow. Maybe there will be a surprise a la Jonathan Loaisiga last year.

If the Yankees need to clear 40-man space tomorrow I imagine Ben Heller, Hanser Alberto, and Kyle Higashioka are most at risk of losing their spots. The Yankees could also kill two birds with one stone with Gray. He’s getting traded at some point, we know that, and trading him before the roster deadline tomorrow gets the trade out of the way and also clears a 40-man roster spot for someone else. See? Nice and easy.

Except it’s probably not that simple. There’s a decent chance the Yankees will get a 40-man roster player back in the inevitable Gray trade, so it’s hardly a lock a trade opens a roster spot. The Yankees have to get the best talent back regardless of roster status. They shouldn’t take non-40-man roster players in return just to make the 40-man situation easier. Trading Sonny won’t necessary open a 40-man spot.

That said, it takes two to tango, and the teams that want Gray may have some players on the 40-man roster bubble they want to move. It could be a player they’re considering cutting to clear a 40-man spot or a player not on the 40-man who is Rule 5 Draft eligible. Did you catch the Aledmys Diaz trade over the weekend? The Blue Jays sent Diaz to the Astros for a Rule 5 Draft eligible pitching prospect Houston was probably going to leave exposed. Something like that could play into the Gray trade. We’ll see.

3. The non-tender deadline probably doesn’t matter. Gray is projected to make $9.1M in 2019 and that’s a lot. More than I expected given his $6.5M salary in 2018. He has his career accomplishments to thank for that projected raise, not his 2018 performance. The non-tender deadline is next Friday, November 30th, and I suppose it’s possible the Yankees could non-tender Gray if they’re worried about getting stuck with his salary next year. That salary could create some headaches if they want to stay under the $206M luxury tax threshold.

I don’t think that’s going to happen though. There seems to be enough trade interest in Sonny right now that, even if the Yankees don’t get a deal worked out by next Friday, they could hang on to Gray and feel confident in getting a trade done later in the offseason. Serious non-tender candidates rarely draw trade interest because teams know they can wait and scoop them up as free agents. That’s not the case with Gray. There’s real interest from multiple teams. Tomorrow’s 40-man roster deadline could push things along. I don’t think the non-tender deadline will. Sonny’s not getting non-tendered.

4. Hooray for a bidding war! The more teams involved, the better. Gray’s value isn’t sky high but I do think he’ll fetch a better return than you might think given his terrible season. He’s young, he’s healthy, he has a strong track record, and he pitched much better away from Yankee Stadium in 2018. The Reds and A’s are interested and I reckon other teams are as well. The more teams with interest, the better it is for the Yankees. It can help drive up the price.

What do the A’s and Reds have to offer, specifically? I’ve had a few people ask me about Gray for Scooter Gennett and I just can’t see that. Surely the Reds could do better than one year of a reclamation project starter for their All-Star second baseman, right? Cincinnati has some interesting bullpen arms (Amir Garrett, Cody Reed) who could fit. I’m not sure Oakland has any MLB players to entice the Yankees. That might have to be a Gray for prospects deal. Point is, at least two teams are involved, so there’s something of a bidding war. That is nothing but good news for the Yankees.

Sorting through possible trade partners for Sonny Gray

October 24, 2018 by Mike

Once the offseason really gets going in a few weeks, we’ll all focus on who the Yankees will add over the winter. Manny Machado? Bryce Harper? Patrick Corbin? Mystery players? Brian Cashman has said the rotation will be the “focus point” this winter and that is no surprise given the state of the starting staff. The Yankees also need to figure out left field, the infield without Didi Gregorius, and also reinforce the bullpen.

While we understandably spend an unhealthy about of time looking at who the Yankees could acquire this winter, we also have to remember the Yankees are trying to subtract a player as well. That player: Sonny Gray. Gray has been a colossal disappointment in pinstripes (4.51 ERA and 4.40 FIP in 195.2 innings) and Cashman Has made it clear the Yankees will look to trade Gray this winter. He was unusually candid at his end-of-season press conference.

“It hasn’t worked out thus far,” said Cashman at that press conference. “I think he’s extremely talented. We’ll enter the winter, unfortunately, open-minded to a relocation. To maximize his abilities, it would be more likely best somewhere else. If I do find a match, you’re gonna see what we had hoped to see here … Someone, if they trade for him, is gonna get the player we wanted. I fully expect that.”

Cashman made a point of saying he won’t give Gray away — what’s he supposed to say? — but, clearly, the Yankees want to move him. Usually in these cases the GM says it’s up to the team to help the player figure it out. Cashman skipped that entirely. Having listened to Cashman and Aaron Boone and Larry Rothschild all season, I sense a lot of frustration here, and the Yankees are ready to move on. I’m not surprised.

As a 28-year-old starting pitcher with a good track record — even after last season, Sonny has a 3.66 ERA (3.74 FIP) in 900.2 big league innings — and a relatively low salary (projected $9.1M in 2019), I get the feeling the Yankees will have no trouble finding potential trade partners for Gray. And remember, he was great outside Yankee Stadium this year (3.17 ERA and 2.65 FIP). Teams will notice. If Sonny were on any other team, wouldn’t we look at him as a possible buy-low candidate? Sure we would. That’s how other teams see him.

With the caveat that things can be unpredictable in the offseason, I’ve singled out several clubs who appear to be possible trade suitors for Gray. Even though he’ll be a free agent next offseason, I don’t think Gray’s market is limited to contending teams. A rebuilding club could be looking at him as a buy-low candidate they could flip for more at the trade deadline, or sign long-term. The Reds traded for Matt Harvey, right? Same idea. Let’s dive in. (Reminder: My trade proposal sucks.)

Chicago White Sox

Why would they want Gray? The rebuild hit a bump in the road this season. Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson didn’t take that step forward, Lucas Giolito went backwards, and Michael Kopech went down with Tommy John surgery. The ChiSox are always looking to acquire high-end talent though — they reportedly made a run at Machado at the deadline — and Don Cooper is a highly regarded pitching coach with a history of fixing pitchers. Getting Sonny on the cheap and seeing whether he can be a viable long-term rotation piece could interest the White Sox.

Who could they send the Yankees? Gray for Carson Fulmer? Eh, that’s one headache for another. Fulmer hasn’t even pitched well in Triple-A. The only thing he has going for him right now is the fading “eighth overall pick in 2015” shine. Unless a deal gets expanded, the return here would most likely be a prospect(s). Not sure there’s a Gray for big leaguer trade that makes sense, not unless the ChiSox are willing to sell super low on Giolito, which kinda defeats the purpose.

Cincinnati Reds

Why would they want Gray? Again, they traded for Harvey, right? The Reds took a flier on a talented pitcher to see whether he could be a long-term option. A no-risk move that didn’t cost them anything. Cincinnati desperately needs pitching help and taking a chance on Gray the same way they took a chance on Harvey could be a worthwhile endeavor. From their perspective, it’s all about cost.

Who could they send the Yankees? One year of Gray for one year of Scooter Gennett? The Yankees would do that in a heartbeat and the Reds would assuredly want more, and hey, maybe that’s a gap the two teams can bridge. The Reds have a lot of young pitchers who’ve stalled out at the MLB level (Cody Reed, Amir Garrett) and the Yankees could try to pry one (or two) of them loose in hopes of adding a long-term piece. Reclamation project for reclamation project, basically.

Houston Astros

Why would they want Gray? The Astros could lose Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency this offseason, and while they have some in-house rotation options (Josh James, Collin McHugh, Brad Peacock), they could pursue outside help. Sonny still has excellent spin rates across the board and Houston may see him as a good low-cost, high-upside candidate for their pitching lab. Keep in mind the Astros pursued Gray at the 2017 trade deadline as well. They’ve had interest in him before.

Who could they send the Yankees? Despite being a World Series contender, Houston has not been shy about trading players off their MLB roster, though they’ve been spare parts (Joe Musgrove) and out-of-favor guys (Ken Giles). The Yankees could push something like one year of Gray for one year of Peacock or one year of McHugh. Peacock was quite good as a starter last season before shifting to the bullpen this year and eventually being left off the postseason roster. Gray for Peacock? That seems like it could be a potential win-win or a potential lopsided deal for either team.

Los Angeles Angels

Why would they want Gray? Pretty simple, really. Mike Trout is two years from free agency, so the Angels aren’t about to rebuild, and they need rotation help. Andrew Heaney and Tyler Skaggs are a good enough rotation top two. Getting a guy like Gray to slot in behind Heaney and Skaggs and ahead of dudes like Felix Pena, Jaime Barria, and Nick Tropeano makes sense for the Angels. Get Sonny out of New York and into a more pitcher friendly ballpark.

Who could they send the Yankees? Gray for Kole Calhoun? It’s a one-year commitment for each and the money is close to a wash, plus the Angels wouldn’t have much trouble finding a replacement corner outfielder in free agency. Calhoun’s a lefty bat and a very good defender who would slot in nicely in left field. He just stopped hitting though. Calhoun went from a 117 wRC+ in 2016 to a 98 wRC+ in 2017 to a 79 wRC+ in 2018. Eh. Put Gray in a more pitcher friendly ballpark and Calhoun in a more hitter friendly ballpark and maybe it works out for both teams?

Milwaukee Brewers

Why would they want Gray? I still think the Brewers are the best landing spot for Gray. They need rotation help and their pitching coach, Derek Johnson, was Sonny’s pitching coach at Vanderbilt. The two are close. It’s a fit. Milwaukee has done a real nice job accumulating talent under GM David Stearns and Gray seems right up their alley as an upside play.

Who could they send the Yankees? Two names jumped to mind: Chase Anderson and Eric Thames. Anderson was great in 2017 (2.74 ERA and 3.58 FIP) and not so great in 2018 (3.93 ERA and 5.22 FIP), so much so that he was left off the postseason roster. He is guaranteed $6.5M next year with affordable options for 2020 and 2021. I’m not sure the Brewers are ready to give up on him yet. They’re trying to add pitching, not subtract it. Besides, bringing a dude who gave up 30 homers in 158 innings this season into Yankee Stadium might not work out too well.

As for Thames, remember his huge April last year? Well, his performance has cratered since, and he hit .219/.306/.478 (105 wRC+) this year. Jesus Aguilar jumped him on the first base depth chart. Ryan Braun has also played some first base, so Thames is probably third on their first base depth chart. He wasn’t even on the Brewers postseason roster. Thames has one guaranteed year remaining on his contract ($7M) and Gray for Thames gives the Brewers a starter and the Yankees a lefty power bat they could plug in at first base or DH or, in an emergency, the outfield. Hmmm.

UPDATE: I should’ve mentioned Jonathan Schoop here as well, given that he’s a free agent next winter who is projected to make similar money as Gray. I just assumed the Brewers are not ready to flip him after trading some pretty good prospects to get him at the deadline. Schoop’s someone to keep in mind though.

Oakland Athletics

Why would they want Gray? I’ve heard through the grapevine that the A’s checked in on Gray at this year’s trade deadline. They really need starting pitching — they didn’t have anyone to start in the Wild Card Game! — and they know Sonny as well as anyone. The Athletics do have a history of trading for pricey veteran players one year before free agency (Jim Johnson and Luke Gregerson jump to mind) and again, they know Gray. They showed interest at the deadline and may look to bring him back to Oakland again this winter.

Who could they send the Yankees? Reverse the trade! Gray for James Kaprielian, Jorge Mateo, and Dustin Fowler! Nah, not happening. This trade has no winners right now. Mateo stunk this year, Kaprielian still hasn’t returned to game action following Tommy John surgery in April 2017, and Fowler struggled in MLB this year and was passed by Ramon Laureano on the center field depth chart. I don’t see an obvious big leaguer for big leaguer trade match here. It would have to be a prospect(s) that come back to New York.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Why would they want Gray? This is a long shot, I think. The Pirates traded Gerrit Cole last year because they were worried they couldn’t sign him long-term. Would they then turn around and trade for Gray when he could leave next year? I mean, sure, it’s possible, and they do need someone to slot alongside Chris Archer, Jameson Taillon, Ivan Nova, and Trevor Williams in the rotation. Money might be the issue here. Pittsburgh operates on a strict budget and Gray may not fit.

Who could they send the Yankees? Hey, if Gray signs at his MLBTR projected salary, he and Nova would be a wash financially. The Pirates aren’t doing that though. Besides, I’ve seen enough Ivan Nova for one lifetime. He’s been the same old Ivan Nova the last two years (98 ERA+ and 4.51 FIP) after his stellar eleven-start cameo with Pittsburgh in 2016. Would the Pirates do Gray for Corey Dickerson? The Yankees could slot Dickerson in at left field and DH and he’d give them a good lefty bat. Seems unlikely. I don’t see a good big leaguer for big leaguer trade. A prospect(s) trade it would have to be.

San Diego Padres

Why would they want Gray? The Padres are my sleeper team. They have no money on the books long-term other than Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer, and their farm system is incredible. One of the best I’ve ever seen. They are very well-positioned to take a chance on Gray, see what he does next season, then pay to keep him if he’s a fit. San Diego reportedly tried to land Noah Syndergaard at the deadline. They’re looking for pitching. Gray’s no Syndergaard, but he could be really good, and the Padres are the perfect team to roll the dice.

Who could they send the Yankees? I thought about Cory Spangenberg. He’ll never live up to hype associated with being the tenth overall pick in 2011, but he’s a lefty bat who can play the three non-first base infield positions and also left field. The downside is Spangenberg has only hit .252/.318/.385 (88 wRC+) with a 29.0% strikeout rate in 815 plate appearances the last two years. He has two years of control remaining and perhaps the Yankees will see him as a poor man’s Didi Gregorius/Aaron Hicks. The talented player who hasn’t put together yet. I dunno. Aside from prospects, there’s no much on San Diego’s roster that excites me.

San Francisco Giants

Why would they want Gray? San Francisco’s interest in Gray depends entirely on their long-term plan. They’re hiring a new baseball operations head this winter and, if they decide to rebuild, forget it. No reason to bring in Gray. If they decide to go for it next year while Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey (and Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt) are in their primes, then the Giants could definitely be a team to watch for Gray. Their rotation is pretty sketchy with Jeff Samardzija crashing and Johnny Cueto having Tommy John surgery.

Who could they send the Yankees? In last week’s mailbag I looked at Joe Panik and Tony Watson. I can’t see the Giants trading Watson for Gray for two reasons. One, they could get more for him elsewhere. And two, if they trade for Gray, it’s because they want to win in 2019, and trading Watson hurts that cause. As for Panik, that seems more reasonable. Both he and Gray are reclamation projects at this point and San Francisco has some others they could plug in at second base. The Yankees have liked Panik in the past and they could bring him aboard as their second baseman (with Gleyber Torres shifting to shortstop) until Gregorius returns. Other than Panik and Watson, I don’t see another fit with the Giants. Their big league roster is thin and their farm system is weak.

Seattle Mariners

Why would they want Gray? Depending who you ask, the Mariners have either seven viable big league starters (Roenis Elias, Marco Gonzales, Felix Hernandez, Mike Leake, Wade LeBlanc, James Paxton, Erasmo Ramirez) or three viable big league starters (Gonzales, Leake, Paxton). Felix has crashed hard the last few years and Elias, LeBlanc, and Ramirez are journeymen. If Gray leaves New York and pitches like he did earlier in his career, he’d be the second best starter in Seattle’s rotation, hands down. The window is closing and GM Jerry Dipoto has made it clear he’s going to do all he can to win before it slams shut.

Who could they send the Yankees? Geez, I have no idea. Their farm system is barren and their best big leaguers with short-term control are Felix (nope), Denard Span (eh), Juan Nicasio (nope), and Nick Vincent (nope). I’m sure we could cobble together an acceptable trade package if we tried hard enough. Nothing jumps out to me though.

Washington Nationals

Why would they want Gray? As bad as they were this year (82-80), the Nationals remain a win-now team. They still have Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Juan Soto, and Victor Robles even if Bryce Harper leaves. Pretty good core! The Nationals could absolutely contend next season in the blob of mediocrity that is the National League. Washington has Scherzer, Strasburg, Tanner Roark, and maybe Joe Ross in their rotation. There is definitely room for Gray.

Who could they send the Yankees? Gray for Adam Eaton? The money is close to a wash and the Nationals could still move forward with a Soto-Robles-Michael Taylor/free agent outfield should Harper not return. Knee and ankle injuries have limited Eaton to 118 games the last two seasons, but, when healthy, he’s hit .300/.394/.422 (123 wRC+). That’s really good! The downside is the leg injuries have sapped his defensive and baserunning value. As a stopgap left fielder, Eaton could work real nice. Would the Nationals really trade such a high on-base leadoff hitter if they’re trying to win though? I don’t see any other players on their big league roster that make sense.

* * *

Cashman is not an idiot. He was so open about trading Gray because he knows there’s interest and he won’t have any trouble drumming up potential trade partners. If he were worried at all about his trade leverage, he would’ve said the Yankees plan to keep Gray and get him right. That’s not what happened. In all likelihood multiple teams will be involved and the Yankees will benefit from a bidding war.

That doesn’t mean they’re going to walk away with a great package, of course. At the end of the day, Sonny is still coming off a terrible season and he’s still only under control one more season. His trade value is not sky high. It’s not nil though. I get the feeling we’re in for a lot of Sonny Gray rumors this winter, and, when it’s all said and done, the Yankees are going to end up with more than you’d expect for a dude coming off a replacement level season.

2018 Wild Card Game Preview: Oakland Athletics

October 3, 2018 by Domenic Lanza

The playoffs are here! This win or go home match-up features the third and fourth best teams in baseball by record (or fourth and sixth by run differential), and, if prior Wild Card Games are any indication, it’s poised to be extraordinarily exciting.

So who’s ready for a night of stressful baseball? I know I am.

The Season Series

The Yankees and A’s met six times this year, splitting the season series three games apiece; both teams took two of their three home games. The A’s outscored the Yankees 33 to 28, with that edge coming from their last meeting of the regular season, which the A’s won 8-2. Four of the six games were decided by at least four runs, with the only close game coming way back on May 12; it was an extra innings affair that the Yankees won 7-6 thanks to a Neil Walker walk-off single.

Luis Severino faced the A’s in both series. The first time, at Yankee Stadium, he pitched quite well – 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 7 K. The next time around, things didn’t go quite so well, as he surrendered 6 runs (5 earned) in 2.2 IP. It was, by Game Score, his worst start of the season. Here’s hoping for more of the former than the latter.

Injury Report

Not much has changed since these teams met a month ago; the A’s are essentially at full strength.

Their 2018 Season

The A’s finished 97-65 with a +139 run differential, and it was basically a tale of two seasons for them. They sat at 29-28 with a -7 run differential heading into June, which was in-line with most of the projection systems out there. From June 1 forward, however, they went 68-37 with a +146 run differential – and looked downright unbeatable at times.

Painting in broad strokes, the A’s were a well-rounded team this year, finishing tied for second in wRC+ (110 as a team), 10th in ERA+ (109), and 10th in defensive runs saved (+25).

The Lineup We Might See

Manager Bob Melvin settled on a rough draft of a lineup over the last dozen or so games of the season, and it looks something like this:

Nick Martini, LF – .296/.397/.414, 1 HR, 0 SB, 129 wRC+ (179 PA)
Matt Chapman, 3B – .278/.356/.508, 24 HR, 1 SB, 137 wRC+ (616 PA)
Jed Lowrie, 2B – .267/.353/.448, 23 HR, 0 SB, 122 wRC+ (680 PA)
Khris Davis, DH – .247/.326/.549, 48 HR, 0 SB, 135 wRC+ (654 PA)
Matt Olson, 1B – .247/.335/.453, 29 HR, 2 SB, 117 wRC+ (660 PA)
Stephen Piscotty, RF – .267/.331/.491, 27 HR, 2 SB, 125 wRC+ (605 PA)
Ramon Laureano, CF – .288/.358/.474, 5 HR, 7 SB, 129 wRC+ (176 PA)
Marcus Semien, SS – .255/.318/.388, 15 HR, 14 SB, 95 wRC+ (703 PA)
Jonathan Lucroy, C – .241/.291/.325, 4 HR, 0 SB, 70 wRC+ (454 PA)

Mark Canha (113 wRC+ in 411 PA) is their lefty-masher off the bench, and Chad Pinder (113 wRC+ in 333 PA) can play almost every position. I reckon that we’ll see both tonight.

The Starting Pitcher We Will See

Liam Hendriks will be starting – or ‘opening’ – for the A’s tonight. He pitched to a 4.13 ERA (102 ERA+) in 24.0 innings in what was a fairly crazy year. He underwent surgery to remove a cyst earlier this year, needed a platelet-rich plasma injection for a torn hip tendon, and was designated for assignment back in June – at which point he had a 7.36 ERA. He didn’t return to the A’s until September 1, but from that point forward he had a 1.38 ERA in 13.0 IP. And his performance was enough for the A’s to trot him out there to kick things off in the Wild Card game.

The 29-year-old righty primarily throws three pitches – a mid-90s four-seamer, a low-to-mid 90s sinker, and a high-80s slider. He’ll mix in a change-up and curve at times, but I don’t think that we’ll see many of those in what should be an ‘air it out’ sort of appearance.

The Bullpen

A’s beat writer Jane Lee believes the team’s game plan for the bullpen may be as follows:

The second through fifth innings will likely call for some combination of Lou Trivino, Shawn Kelley, Yusmeiro Petit and Ryan Buchter. From there, Oakland would roll out setup men Fernando Rodney and Jeurys Familia for one inning apiece ahead of Treinen’s entrance.

Oakland’s bullpen has been a strength throughout the season, but let’s focus on those seven names. These are their numbers solely with the A’s:

Trivino – 74.0 IP, 10.0 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 2.92 ERA
Kelley – 16.2 IP, 9.7 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 2.16 ERA
Petit – 93.0 IP, 7.4 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 3.00 ERA
Buchter – 39.1 IP, 9.4 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 2.75 ERA
Rodney – 20.2 IP, 8.7 K/9, 5.7 BB/9, 3.92 ERA
Familia – 31.1 IP, 11.5 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 3.45 ERA
Treinen – 80.1 IP, 11.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.78 ERA

That’s a heck of a bullpen, with several dominant arms. Treinen was arguably the best reliever in baseball this year, and the options in front of him vary from solid to great. By WPA this was the best bullpen in baseball, and by fWAR it was fifth – and this is the best sample of that group.

Who (Or What) To Watch

This section feels kind of meaningless, doesn’t it? You’re watching a winner take all game between two well-matched teams – and, if you’re reading this, you’re a big-time fan of one of those teams. That won’t stop me from pointing out a few things, though.

These are two juggernaut bullpens. The Yankees were 1st in fWAR and 3rd in WPA, and match-up well with the A’s from top to bottom. How Melvin and Boone deploy their relievers may well be the determining factor in this game.

These are also two of the most prolific power-hitting teams in baseball, too. The Yankees finished first in home runs and ISO, and the A’s finished third in both – and the A’s play in a park that’s not terribly conducive to power. The Yankees have six players with 20-plus home runs, and the A’s have five.

And there’s a ton of history between these teams, to boot.

Yankees, Athletics announce 2018 Wild Card Game rosters

October 3, 2018 by Mike

Earlier this morning both the Yankees and Athletics announced their 25-man active rosters for tonight’s AL Wild Card Game. We were able to piece together the Yankees’ roster based on information from yesterday’s workout. The roster is as expected. No surprises.

Here are the two 25-man rosters for tonight’s winner-take-all game. Turns out I did a pretty good job projecting it last week:

NEW YORK YANKEES

Pitchers (10)
RHP Dellin Betances
LHP Zach Britton
LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Chad Green
LHP J.A. Happ
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Lance Lynn
RHP David Robertson
RHP Luis Severino
RHP Masahiro Tanaka

Catchers (3)
Kyle Higashioka
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

Infielders (7)
Miguel Andujar
Didi Gregorius
Adeiny Hechavarria
Gleyber Torres
Luke Voit
Tyler Wade
Neil Walker

Outfielders (5)
Brett Gardner
Aaron Hicks
Aaron Judge
Andrew McCutchen
Giancarlo Stanton

OAKLAND ATHLETICS

Pitchers (11)
LHP Ryan Buchter
RHP Jeurys Familia
RHP Liam Hendriks
RHP Edwin Jackson
RHP Shawn Kelley
RHP Emilio Pagan
RHP Yusmeiro Petit
RHP Fernando Rodney
RHP Blake Treinen
RHP Lou Trivino
RHP J.B. Wendelken

Catchers (2)
Jonathan Lucroy
Josh Phegley

Infielders (6)
Franklin Barreto
Matt Chapman
Jed Lowrie
Matt Olson
Chad Pinder (IF/OF)
Marcus Semien

Outfielders (6)
Mark Canha (1B/OF)
Khris Davis
Matt Joyce
Ramon Laureano
Nick Martini
Stephen Piscotty

Notably absent: Greg Bird, CC Sabathia, and Stephen Tarpley. Sabathia being excluded from the roster isn’t a surprise. At this point, he’s not one of the ten best pitchers on the staff, especially when you consider he’d have to pitch in an unfamiliar relief role. Tarpley was said to be in the mix for a bullpen spot. Ultimately, the A’s only have one hitter (Olson) who needs a left-on-left specialist, and he’d be pinch-hit for instantly by Canha, a lefty crusher. Tarpley didn’t have much of a purpose.

As for Bird, I am a bit surprised he’s not on the Wild Card Game roster only because the Yankees love him. That said, he hasn’t hit at all this season, and he offers no defensive versatility or baserunning value. His only role would be as a pinch-hitting option who could maybe park one in the short porch, and who’s getting lifted for a pinch-hitter? No one in the starting lineup. The Yankees opted for Wade (pinch-runner) and Hechavarria (Andujar’s defensive caddy) over Bird. Can’t blame them.

The Athletics are really going all in on the bullpen game, huh? Jackson is the only actual starting pitcher on the roster and I assume he is their emergency extra innings guy. Their bench is sneaky good. Canha crushes lefties and Joyce is a fine lefty platoon bat who could take aim at the right field porch. Pinder, a right-handed hitter, hit 13 homers with a 111 wRC+ as a part-timer this year, and he played every position other than pitcher and catcher. A’s manager Bob Melvin could get creative with his bench.

Severino and Hendriks (an opener) are starting the Wild Card Game tonight. The game is scheduled to begin a little after 8pm ET and it’ll be broadcast on TBS. Winner moves on to play the Red Sox in the ALDS. Loser goes home.

Matching up against A’s x-factor Stephen Piscotty

October 2, 2018 by Mike

By now, you should know the 2018 Athletics are not the 2017 Twins. The 2017 Twins were a pushover 85-win team that essentially backed into the second wild card spot because the rest of the American League was so bad. The 2018 Athletics won 97 games and, despite playing in the spacious Oakland Coliseum, they finished third in home runs (227) and fourth in runs (851) this season. They are scary.

Oakland’s offensive attack is led by 48-homer man Khris Davis, the all-around excellence of Matt Chapman, and the steadiness of Jed Lowrie. First baseman Matt Olson is exactly the kind of left-handed hitter who could pop a ball or two into the short porch in tomorrow night’s Wild Card Game if the Yankees are not careful. The A’s regular lineup is rather fearsome:

LF Nick Martini (129 wRC+)
3B Matt Chapman (137 wRC+)
2B Jed Lowrie (122 wRC+)
DH Khris Davis (135 wRC+)
1B Matt Olson (117 wRC+)
RF Stephen Piscotty (125 wRC+)
CF Ramon Laureano (129 wRC+)
SS Marcus Semien (95 wRC+)
C Jonathan Lucroy (70 wRC+)

Neither Martini (179 plate appearances) nor Laureano (176 plate appearances) have much playing time, but, in the playing time they do have, they’ve been very good. That was the A’s regular lineup down the stretch in September, and, if manager Bob Melvin sticks with it in the Wild Card Game, they’ll have seven hitters in the lineup with a 117 wRC+ or better. The Yankees will have eight (everyone but Gary Sanchez)! But six is scary.

Chapman is the A’s best all-around player and Davis led MLB in home runs this year. The Yankees will also focus heavily on Olson given his potential to pepper the short porch with fly balls. Right now though, Oakland’s most dangerous hitter might be Piscotty, who lurks in the No. 6 spot ready to ruin your day after getting through the 3-4-5 hitters. Consider the month of September real quick:

Chapman: .260/.315/.410 (100 wRC+)
Davis: .237/.317/.570 (133 wRC+)
Lowrie: .220/.327/.308 (83 wRC+)
Olson: .282/.396/.494 (149 wRC+)
Piscotty: .310/.394/.655 (182 wRC+)

Olson was great in September. Davis less so thanks mostly to his power. Chapman and Lowrie stumbled to the finish a bit. That doesn’t mean they won’t be dangerous in the Wild Card Game. It just means September wasn’t their best month. Piscotty though? He was a monster in September. A monster throughout the second half, really. His arrow is pointing up:

Piscotty is not an out-of-nowhere success story. While with the Cardinals he hit .305/.359/.494 (134 wRC+) in 2015 and .273/.343/.457 (116 wRC+) in 2016. He struggled last season, hitting .235/.342/.367 (91 wRC+) while dealing with a groin injury and also off-the-field family matters. Piscotty’s mother Gretchen battled Lou Gehrig’s disease and passed away earlier this year. I can’t even begin to imagine what that was like for Stephen and his family.

After a good but not great first half, Piscotty has really settled in with the Athletics in the second half, adding length to the lineup. He had 41 doubles and 27 home runs in 151 games this season. Nineteen of those doubles and 20 of those home runs came in his final 72 games. Piscotty played at a 40+ homer pace for basically half-a-season there. This dude is feelin’ it right now.

Here are two heat maps. On the left are Piscotty’s hard hit balls this season, specifically fly balls and line drives with a 95 mph exit velocity or better. On the right are his swings and misses.

Like most hitters, the down and away pitch is Piscotty’s kryptonite. He’s also not someone who can do damage in any quadrant of the strike zone. For Piscotty to really lay into one, it has to be thigh high and out over the plate, perhaps a little inside. That’s where he makes his best contact. You can kinda see how the red splotch of hard hit balls fits neatly around the swings and misses.

Relative to the rest of the league, Piscotty is a better than average hitter against both fastballs and breaking balls. Everyone hits fastballs better than breaking balls — the Yankees didn’t adopt their anti-fastball philosophy on a whim, you know — but Piscotty’s split is rather extreme.

Fastballs: .390 wOBA and .452 xwOBA (MLB averages: .344 wOBA and .360 xwOBA)
Breaking Balls: .288 wOBA and .298 xwOBA (MLB averages: .264 wOBA and .266 xwOBA)

Given the numbers and the heat maps, expect the Yankees to attack Piscotty with soft stuff down and away all night in the Wild Card Game. We know now that Luis Severino is starting tomorrow night. He can go after Piscotty with sliders down and away. David Robertson can curveball him into the ground as well. Here’s another thing though: Check out Piscotty’s swing-and-miss heat map against fastballs:

As productive as he’s been against fastballs this season — Piscotty had the tenth highest xwOBA against fastballs this year, sandwiched between Joey Votto and Paul Goldschmidt — you can elevate the fastball against Piscotty. The more velocity the better, obviously. That makes Severino a good matchup against Piscotty, in theory. Severino can elevate that upper-90s heater and also break off that nasty slider down and away.

Looking at the rest of the bullpen, Chad Green’s strength seems to make up well with Piscotty’s weakness. Green throws a ton of fastballs and most of them are up in the zone. It wouldn’t seem like Green vs. Piscotty is something the Yankees want given Piscotty’s propensity to annihilate fastballs, but, given how Green operates up in the zone, it could work out very well. He just has to execute, of course.

At the same time, Zach Britton might not be a good matchup against Piscotty at all. There’s the platoon advantage, for starters, but Britton also gets his outs by pounding the bottom of the zone with sinkers. It’s not a normal sinker. Britton has maybe the best sinker I’ve ever seen. But Piscotty can handle fastballs down and certainly fastballs out over the plate. A righty who can elevate the fastball is a better bet than a lefty who peppers the knees.

Piscotty has been the A’s most dangerous hitter the last few weeks and, ideally, the Yankees would attack him with breaking balls down and away. All hitters are susceptible to down-and-away breakers. Piscotty especially so. If that matchup isn’t there though, elevated fastballs are the way to go, in which case the fastball heavy Green may be the best option against the fastball crusher Piscotty, as weird as that sounds.