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The A’s may bullpen game the Wild Card Game, and that just might work to the Yankees’ advantage

October 2, 2018 by Mike

This guy is a problem. (Stephen Lam/Getty)

Tomorrow night the Yankees and Athletics will play the win or go home AL Wild Card Game at Yankee Stadium. We’ve been through this twice already — the Yankees lost to the Astros in the 2015 Wild Card Game and beat the Twins in the 2017 Wild Card Game — but that doesn’t make it any easier. The prospect of a 100-win season being washed away in one game is scary.

With the game less than 36 hours away, we still don’t know who will start for either team. The Yankees have been mulling it over for weeks — my guess is it’ll be Luis Severino, but what do I know — and so have the Athletics, who have been hammered by rotation injuries and don’t have an obvious Wild Card Game starter. Because of that, the A’s are said to be ready to bullpen it.

“It’s something we’ve been tinkering with some and trying to take a look and seeing what the best fit is going forward,” said manager Bob Melvin to Susan Slusser over the weekend. “That’s why we’re trying to give everybody a little bit of experience with it. After doing this, it will weigh into our decision come Wednesday.”

The alternative to a bullpen game would be Mike Fiers, who lines up to start tomorrow. He’s had a good season overall (3.56 ERA and 4.75 FIP) but is the kind of soft-tossing fly ball guy who gives up a lot of home runs and isn’t a good fit for Yankee Stadium at all. Fiers gave up 32 homers in 172 regular season innings and, last time out, he allowed six runs in 3.1 innings.

Oakland could always surprise everyone and start Fiers with a short leash tomorrow. We’ll get a definitive answer to both team’s pitching plans later today during the workout at Yankee Stadium, but, for now, the most likely scenario seems to be a straight bullpen game with a parade of one and two-inning relievers. So, with that in mind, let’s break down the A’s bullpen and figure out who fits where.

The Opener: Liam Hendriks

The Athletics have dabbled with an opener in recent weeks and Hendriks has gotten the call more often than anyone else. It’s not even close, really. Hendriks has made eight starts in recent weeks. Lou Trivino is the only other reliever to start as an opener. He’s made one start. If the A’s do go with an opener, all indications are it’ll be Hendriks.

“I think there’s definitely going to be a lot more scrutiny on it,” said Hendriks to Slusser when asked about the possibility of starting a postseason game. “If doesn’t work, that will be the reason, and if it does work, that will be the reason as well. Everything is going to be amplified.”

In his eight starts (opens?), Hendriks has allowed two runs in 8.2 innings with a .224 wOBA against. He tossed a scoreless first inning in his first start, they sent him out for a second inning, he allowed two runs, and that was it. It’s been one and done since then. If he starts tomorrow, I imagine Hendriks will be one inning and done again.

Hendriks is a mid-90s fastball/slider guy who has weirdly been better against lefties (.296 wOBA) than righties (.360 wOBA) not only this season, but the last few seasons as well. The split wasn’t always this drastic, but he has a clear reverse split. Huh. Maybe that makes the Andrew McCutchen-Aaron Judge one-two punch a good matchup against Hendriks?

The Closer: Blake Treinen

Treinen is absolutely filthy. He’s one of those guys who makes you wonder how anyone ever gets a hit. It’s an upper-90s sinker with a wipeout slider and a little cutter that chews up lefties. Look at this:

Disgusting. Treinen was an All-Star this year and he threw 80.1 innings with a 0.78 ERA (1.82 FIP) with 31.8% strikeouts and 51.9% grounders on the season overall. He doesn’t walk anyone either. Treinen had 6.7% walk rate this season. Goodness.

The key number there: 80.1 innings. Treinen threw 80.1 innings in 68 appearances this year. Ten times he threw two full innings this season, including one three-inning appearance. On 19 occasions Treinen recorded at least four outs. Only 20 relievers had more appearances of four or more outs this season and three of them were Rays’ long men who followed an opener, so it’s really only 17 relievers.

Point is, the Yankees are likely looking at a seven-inning game tomorrow night. Treinen has not pitched since Saturday, so he’ll go into the Wild Card Game with three days rest. I have to think Melvin and the A’s are planning on a two-inning save. If not planning on it then at least considering it. Treinen is out of this world good. If the Yankees are trailing after seven innings, they’re in serious trouble.

The Setup Man: Jeurys Familia

Familia is a potential crack in the dam. As good as he was overall this year — Familia threw 72 innings with a 3.13 ERA (2.65 FIP) and 27.5% strikeouts in 2018 — Familia has struggled lately, allowing six runs in his last 8.2 innings and 12 runs in his last 21.2 innings. He loaded the bases with no outs in a game against the Yankees last month and walked in the tying run.

Those walks have been a problem lately. Familiar has walked 12 batters in his last 21.2 innings, and, when he walks guys, he tends to walk then in bunches. He issued multiple walks in three of his last eleven appearances after issuing multiple walks in one of his first 59 appearances. A graph:

Not many pitches in the zone these days. Familia throws an upper-90s sinker that moves all over the place as well as a slider and a splitter, and he’s had some control problems recently. Not 2017 Dellin Betances control problems, but control problems. Once he enters the game, we should be able to tell pretty quickly whether he’s locked in or not. And if he’s not, Familia will absolutely walk himself in trouble. That’s something that should be on the Yankees’ radar.

Also, for what it’s worth, Familia has a penchant for back-breaking home runs in the postseason. He allowed a game-tying solo home run to Alex Gordon in the ninth inning of Game One of the 2015 World Series, and the game-winning three-run home run to Conor Gillaspie in the ninth inning of the 2016 Wild Card Game. If you’re a believer in “this guy can’t perform in the postseason,” that should make you feel better. The walks are the big thing to me.

The Fireman: Shawn Kelley

The A’s acquired Kelley from the Nationals in an August trade — remember when he was designated for assignment for being “unprofessional?” — and, in his 19 appearances with Oakland, he entered in the middle of an inning with men on base eight times. He’s the fireman. He inherited 19 runners in those eight appearances and three scored.

We all remember Kelley from his time with the Yankees, right? He’s a fastball/slider pitcher (it’s basically a 50/50 split) who struck out 26.3% of batters faced this season, including 27.0% of right-handed batters for his career. The downside here? Lots of fly balls (30.2% grounders) and lots of homers (1.29 HR/9). Bring him in with men on base and you run the risk of a multi-run home run, especially at Yankee Stadium. That’s the A’s problem.

As always, the preference is letting the reliever start an inning fresh. But, if the Athletics run into some trouble and need someone to pitch them out of a jam, especially with right-handed hitters do up, Kelley figures to be the guy Melvin calls on. He’s going to get swings and misses. Always has. But he’ll also let hitters elevate the ball. Kelley is one of those “he’ll make mistakes, so don’t miss it” guys.

The Wild Card: Fernando Rodney

In all seriousness, Rodney deserves major props for slinging mid-90s fastballs and posting a 3.36 ERA (4.03 FIP) in 64.1 innings at age 41. May all your favorite players have that kind of longevity.

Anyway, Rodney is very much a wild card, and I mean that with no pun intended. He could come in and strike out the side or he could come in, walk two batters, hit another, and give up four runs. We’ve seen him give up some pretty big home runs to the Yankees this year. Rodney gave up the walk-off home run to Gary Sanchez when he was with the Twins and Luke Voit hit a go-ahead home run against him in Oakland last month.

Melvin has used Rodney as sort of his jack of all trades reliever. Treinen is the closer and Familia is the main setup guy. Rodney has pitched the seventh inning mostly, and also the eighth when Familia or Treinen weren’t available. I’m not sure how much Melvin really trusts him. Enough to use him in a winner-take-all game? When the A’s were trying to chase down the Astros in the AL West, Rodney didn’t see many close games.

I don’t know where Rodney fits in the pecking order tomorrow. Melvin may try to avoid him all together or he may trust him enough to use him in a one-run game in the sixth or seventh inning. No matter when he pitches, Rodney’s effectiveness kinda depends on which side of the bed he wakes up on. He’s very unpredictable and a patient team like the Yankees can take advantage of his wildness.

The Struggling Middle Man: Lou Trivino

My favorite thing about Lou Trivino is that he looks exactly like I’d expect a guy named like Lou Trivino to look. To wit:

A Lou Trivino if I ever saw one.

Well, anyway, Trivino served as Treinen’s primary setup man in the first half before crashing hard in the second half. It’s a good thing the A’s went out and got Familia and Rodney when they did because:

Trivino in first half: 1.22 ERA (3.07 FIP) with 29.2% strikeouts in 44.1 innings
Trivino in second half: 5.46 ERA (4.61 FIP) with 25.0% strikeouts in 29.2 innings

Opponents have hit .295/.382/.513 against Trivino in his last 24 games and 19.2 innings — for reference, that is more or less 2018 Paul Goldschmidt (.290/.389/.533) — and he finished the regular season having allowed seven runs in his final four appearances and 2.2 innings. Yikes.

For all intents and purposes, Trivino is the A’s version of 2017 Dellin Betances. Their struggles are different — Betances walked everyone last year while Trivino is simply getting hit hard this year — but the idea is the same. They were a trusted setup man pretty much all year who has become persona non grata come postseason time. Emergencies only.

Trivino is a four-seamer/two-seamer/cutter guy whose location has suffered and may’ve become a little too predictable this year. His recent ineffectiveness has really put some pressure on Familia and Rodney (and Kelley). The whole idea was to build a four-headed bullpen monster at the end of games. Trivino hasn’t held up his end of the bargain.

Melvin has spent the last few weeks trying to get Trivino right — the A’s were sitting comfortably in postseason position and they let him work through things — and it hasn’t really happened. The postseason is not the time to let a player try to right the ship. If they go with a bullpen game, Trivino may be used out of necessity. He is definitely a weak link right now. There is damage potential here.

The LOOGY: Ryan Buchter

Left-on-left specialists are a dying breed but Buchter is one of the few true matchup guys remaining. Case in point: He threw 39.1 innings in 54 appearances this season. That’s a LOOGYs workload. Buchter held lefties to a .165/.231/.265 (.222 wOBA) batting line with 31.5% strikeouts this year. Righties? They hit .286/.366/.476 (.360 wOBA) with 16.9% strikeouts against him.

Buchter will be on the Wild Card Game roster for one reason and one reason only: Didi Gregorius. I suppose he could turn Aaron Hicks around to his weaker side of the plate (weaker side this year, anyway), but it seems more likely Buchter and his fastball/curveball combo will be used against Gregorius. That’s the best left-on-left matchup for the Athletics now that Brett Gardner and Greg Bird have given way to McCutchen and Voit, respectively.

If there’s one thing to like about the Buchter-Gregorius matchup, it is the potential for a fly ball. Buchter has a 25.2% ground ball rate this year. It’s a slightly better 30.2% ground ball rate against lefties. Gregorius, over the last three seasons, has a 39.6% ground ball rate and a 36.8% pull rate against southpaws. He knows how to hit the ball toward the short porch. Buchter is very fly ball prone and that might play right to Didi’s strength.

The Secret Weapon: J.B. Wendelken

Wendelken is the A’s version of Stephen Tarpley. He’s a righty, not a lefty, but he pitched his way into postseason roster consideration with a strong September. It’s not even a consideration. Slusser says Wendelken’s on the roster. He allowed one run in 16.2 innings this year, including eight scoreless innings in September.

The good news: Wendelken is not a big strikeout pitcher (22.6%). The bad news: Wendelken gets a lot of weak fly balls and popups. Those frustrate me to no end. He’s a mid-90 fastball/curveball/changeup guy, so this isn’t a full blown Marco Estrada “OMG why aren’t they hitting these 86 mph fastballs???” profile, but it’s the same idea. He leaves hitters flummoxed.

With Trivino struggling and Rodney so unpredictable, I suspect Wendelken will be counted on quite a bit in the Wild Card Game. He might be the first guy out of the bullpen following the opener and he might be asked to throw two innings, possibly even three if his pitch count is low.

No one on the Yankees has faced Wendelken. The entire roster will be going in blind. Not great! I can hear Brian Johnson on the TBS broadcast now. “And what a job by J.B. Wendelken to shut the Yankees down here. He wasn’t on the radar at all before coming out of nowhere in September.” I don’t like it. The potential to get Wendelkened is too high for my liking.

With any luck, Wendelken’s general lack of whiffs and 10.0% minor league walk rate will manifest themselves at the wrong time against the wrong lineup in the wrong ballpark. The Yankees’ lineup can be unforgiving. They’ve never seen Wendelken before, but Wendelken’s never seen the Yankees or Yankee Stadium in the postseason. It can be intimidating.

The Multi-Inning Guy: Yusmeiro Petit

Petit does it all, man. He can throw two or three innings at a time or face one batter in a matchup spot. He’s sorta like 2009 Alfredo Aceves. Aceves could do whatever. Petit has a 3.00 ERA (3.93 FIP) with 20.7% strikeouts and the kind of ground ball (35.8%) and home run (1.26 HR/9) rates that don’t normally play well in Yankee Stadium. He is in Melvin’s Circle of Trust™ though, and if the A’s bullpen the Wild Card Game, they’ll need Petit at some point.

This is my guess — again, this is just a guess — at Melvin’s ideal inning-by-inning pitching plan for tomorrow’s Wild Card Game:

1st inning: Hendriks
2nd inning: Wendelken
3rd inning: Wendelken
4th inning: Petit
5th inning: Petit with Kelley and Buchter as necessary
6th inning: Trivino or Rodney with Kelley and Buchter as necessary
7th inning: Familia
8th inning: Familia and Treinen
9th inning: Treinen

That is potentially nine pitchers for nine innings. The Athletics are expected to carry eleven pitchers on the Wild Card Game roster — Jane Lee says they’ll have a starter for extra innings and low-leverage righty Emilio Pagan on the roster — and, clearly, those middle innings are crucial. Familia has been shaky lately. I still don’t want the A’s handing him and Treinen a lead.

The common thread here is fly balls. Fly balls and home runs. Even with Treinen’s hellacious sinker and Familia’s merely very good sinker, Oakland’s bullpen posted the second lowest ground ball rate (40.6%) in baseball and a 1.05 HR/9 rate that would’ve been much higher in a different home ballpark. Kelley, Buchter, and Petit will all give up fly balls and Wendelken has done the same in his brief MLB career.

For the Yankees, there is undoubtedly a disadvantage to never seeing one pitcher multiple times in a game. That’s the entire point of the bullpenning/opener strategy. Limit the number of times the hitter sees a pitcher. The Yankees have seen their fair share of bullpen games this season thanks to the Rays, and we know they can be annoyingly effective. The A’s are doing it out of necessity.

The downside of a bullpen game is that you’re using so many relievers, and the more relievers you use, the more likely it is you run into someone who just doesn’t have it that day. The Yankees effectively bullpenned the Wild Card Game last year, but they used four relievers in 8.2 innings. Using seven or eight relievers to cover nine innings is a different animal. It’s doable. For sure. The A’s wouldn’t do this if they were confident in any of their starters though. This is the best of several not great options.

Yankees trade Shawn Kelley to the Padres for minor league reliever Johnny Barbato

December 29, 2014 by Mike 787 Comments

Barbato. (Screen grab via MLBpipeline.com)

3:01pm: Done deal, the Yankees have announced the trade. It’s Kelley for Barbato, straight up. So long, Shawn. I’ll remember you for the horse head.

1:56pm: The quasi-youth movement continues. The Yankees have traded Shawn Kelley to the Padres for minor league reliever Johnny Barbato, according to Jack Curry. It appears the deal is straight up, one-for-one. Neither team has announced the trade just yet. The Yankees clear a 40-man roster spot with the move.

Kelley, who is set to become a free agent next offseason, was projected to earn $2.5M through arbitration in 2015, so the Yankees are shedding a little bit of money. With Andrew Miller replacing David Robertson in the bullpen, Kelley figured to again be in the seventh inning mix next year. That job belongs to Adam Warren now.

At the moment, the bullpen includes Miller, Warren, Dellin Betances, Justin Wilson, and Esmil Rogers, leaving two open spots, one of which figures to go to a long man. The Yankee have no shortage of in-house candidates for those last two spots, with Jacob Lindgren, Branden Pinder, Danny Burawa, Chase Whitley, Gonzalez Germen, Jose Ramirez, Bryan Mitchell, Jose DePaula, and possibly even Manny Banuelos among the notables. Obviously a trade or free agent signing is always possible.

Kelley, 30, originally came over from the Mariners in exchange for Abe Almonte just before the start of Spring Training 2013. He spent two seasons in New York and had a 4.46 ERA (3.33 FIP) with 138 strikeouts in 105 innings. At his best, Kelley was a shutdown late-inning reliever. At his worst, he was very homer prone and unreliable. I guess that makes him like every other middle reliever in baseball.

The Padres drafted Barbato out of a Miami high school in the sixth round of the 2010 draft and paid him a well above slot $1.4M bonus, easily the largest bonus they gave out that year. He’s spent the majority of his pro career in the bullpen because of a herky jerky delivery and the lack of a reliable third pitch. Baseball America ranked Barbato as the 30th best prospect in a stacked San Diego system prior to 2014 in their Prospect Handbook. Here’s a scouting report from their trade analysis (no subs. req’d):

He pitches with mid-90s velocity and verve, attacking hitters with a live fastball that sinks and runs as it nears the plate. He throws a true curveball in the high 70s that features extreme break through the zone, and he locates and mixes his two pitches well enough to boast a career strikeout rate of 9.2 per nine innings … Barbato has the raw stuff to zoom to [New York] in 2015 and gradually work his way up to a setup role.

Barbato, 22, had a 2.87 ERA (3.31 FIP) with good strikeout (9.48 K/9 and 25.6 K%) and walk (2.87 BB/9 and 7.8 BB%) rates in 31.1 Double-A innings this season. His season ended in mid-June because of elbow soreness, and, as Curry notes, there is some concern Barbato may need Tommy John surgery. If healthy, he figures to start the year with Triple-A Scranton and be a call-up candidate at some point next summer.

So far this offseason the Yankees have replaced Kelley with Barbato, Martin Prado with Jose Pirela/Rob Refsnyder, Shane Greene with Nathan Eovaldi, Francisco Cervelli with John Ryan Murphy, and Derek Jeter with Didi Gregorius, getting younger each time. Joe Girardi, Brian Cashman, and Hal Steinbrenner all said after the season the team will be younger next year, and that is definitely the case.

Kelley was a nice little find for the Yankees — going from Almonte to two years of Kelley to Barbato is a fun transaction tree — but he’s not exactly impossible to replace. Dealing middle relievers one year away from free agency for a Triple-A ready prospect is a move the Yankees should always look to make. New York saves some money, gets younger, and clears a 40-man roster spot. It’s not a move that will make or break the 2015 season but does give the team some more flexibility.

2014 Season Review: The Sometimes Setup Men

October 30, 2014 by Mike 106 Comments

Because they dealt with so many rotation injuries, the Yankees had to rely on their bullpen a ton this past season. Joe Girardi asked his bullpen to throw 501.1 innings this summer, the sixth most in the league. Dellin Betances soaked up a ton of innings, especially early in the year, but it wasn’t until late into the season that he settled into a traditional setup role. For most of the year, that responsibility belonged to Adam Warren and Shawn Kelley.

Adam Warren, Workhorse

Last season the Yankees used Warren as a true swingman and he was pretty damn good at it, especially by swingman standards. Getting 77 innings of 3.39 ERA (4.32 FIP) ball out of the last guy in the bullpen is really good. The Yankees moved Warren into a more traditional short relief role this season and he excelled. First and foremost, his fastball velocity ticked up noticeably:

Warren was Girardi’s regular seventh and eighth inning guy in the first half while Kelley and David Robertson missed time with injuries. The second half was a bit rough — nine runs in his first 14 innings after the All-Star break, perhaps due to fatigue — but Warren settled down and finished very strong thanks to some mechanical tweaks suggested by pitching coach Larry Rothschild.

“Larry pointed out one day, maybe move your hands a little this way and and all of a sudden it’s like, oh that feels a little bit better and you roll with it from there and you just kind of tinker with things until it feels right,” said Warren to Brendan Kuty in September. “Once things started to click it was like, oh, why didn’t I think of that two weeks earlier? It’s a process.”

Warren allowed just two runs (both in one outing) on six hits and three walks in his final 15 appearances and 20 innings of the season. He struck out 21, including ten of the final 18 batters he faced on the year. Warren closed out 2014 with a 2.97 ERA (2.89 FIP) in 78.2 innings with a very good strikeout rate (8.69 K/9 and 23.5 K%) and solid walk (2.75 BB/9 and 7.4 BB%) and ground ball (45.4%) numbers.

Last season, Warren’s main problems were the long ball and left-handed hitters. He allowed ten homers in those 77 innings (1.17 HR/9 and 13.2 HR/FB%) and lefty batters hit .301/.370/.526 (.387 wOBA) against him. This year it was only four homers in 78.2 innings (0.46 HR/9 and 6.0 HR/FB%) with a .170/.253/.271 (.239 wOBA) line by opposite hand hitters. That’s quite the improvement. Probably too much of an improvement. Not sure if he can sustain that going forward, but it happened in 2014 and that’s all that counts.

Anyway, given the team’s rotation issues — there was plenty of talk of moving him back into the rotation after the injuries struck in the first half — Warren was especially valuable because of his durability. He recorded at least four outs in 29 of his 69 appearances, the second most in baseball behind Betances (35!). Sure, Warren has been a starter his entire life, but throwing multiple innings two or three times a week is no easy task. Outside of that little hiccup after the All-Star break, Warren was very good and very valuable to the 2014 Yankees. He soaked up a ton of important innings.

Shawn Kelley, Intermittently Awesome

When the season started, Kelley was Robertson’s primary setup man. That was plan coming into the season after Mariano Rivera retired and the Yankees opted not to bring in some kind of veteran replacement. For a while, Kelley was excellent, pitching to a 1.88 ERA with 15 strikeouts and three walks in his first 14 appearances and 14.1 innings. He even went 4-for-4 in save chances while filling in for the briefly injured Robertson in April.

Then it all fell apart on May 5th in Anaheim. Kelley walked four of the six batters he faced and allowed three runs to blow a game. He landed on the disabled list with a back issue two days later and missed six weeks. Kelley looked shaky — his slider lacked its usual bite, specifically — but was generally effective in his first few outings back before settling down. He struggled in mid-July (seven runs in the span of three appearances at one point) and again in late-September (four runs in his last four outings) to close out the year.

Kelley finished the season with a 4.53 ERA (3.02 FIP) in 51.2 innings. He struck out a ton of batters (11.67 K/9 and 30.5 K%) but also walked a few too many (3.48 BB/9 and 9.1 BB%) and didn’t get any ground balls (33.6%). Kelley actually kept the ball in the park (0.87 HR/9 and 8.9 HR/FB%) and handled left-handed batters (.221/.311/.301, .269 wOBA) better than I remember. Like most middle relievers, there were times he was really great and times he made you pull your hair out.

After starting the season as the first option behind Robertson, Kelley closed the year behind Betances and Warren on the setup man totem pole. The injury really seemed to knock him off track in May, but, as we’ve seen these last two years, Kelley is prone to spectacular meltdowns. That’s baseball. The good generally outweighs the bad — few guys can miss bats like this, that’s a valuable skill — and at times Kelley was a very important member of the bullpen in 2014.

MLBTR’s Projected Arbitration Salaries for 2015

October 22, 2014 by Mike 221 Comments

At this time last season, the Yankees were still talking about getting under the $189M luxury tax threshold for the 2014 season. It was definitely doable, but it would have been very difficult, especially since the team wanted to contend at the same time. Eventually the Yankees abandoned their luxury tax plan and they didn’t even get back to the postseason anyway, so double yikes.

Because Alex Rodriguez’s salary is coming back on the books and the team handed out four free agent contracts worth $15M+ last offseason, the Yankees won’t be able to get under the luxury tax in 2015 and probably not in 2016 either. It might be possible in 2017, after the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires and the luxury tax threshold is presumably raised.

Anyway, that’s a really long way of saying salaries for New York’s arbitration-eligible players are less important this offseason then they were at this time last year. When I looked at the club’s 2015 payroll situation three weeks ago, I guesstimated a $12M figure for their arbitration-eligible players. Turns out I was pretty close. Matt Swartz posted arbitration salary projections using his insanely accurate model — he’s been within 5% the last few years — earlier this week, and he has the Yankees’ players at $12.9M total. Not a bad job by me. Here are the projections:

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via Matt Swartz)

Shawn Kelley, RP (5.128): $2.5MM projected salary

Francisco Cervelli, C (4.146): $1.1MM

Esmil Rogers, RP (4.087): $1.9MM

Ivan Nova, SP (4.024): $3.3MM

Michael Pineda, SP (3.099): $2.1MM

David Huff, RP (3.062): $700K

David Phelps, SP/RP (2.156): $1.3MM

Pineda (~$1.5M raise), Huff (~$200K raise), and Phelps (~$800k raise) are all arbitration-eligible for the first time. Pineda is getting a nice bump in salary despite missing all that time to injury because a) he was pretty awesome when healthy this past year, and b) he was an All-Star back in 2011, and that pays. Phelps qualified as a Super Two by about a month’s worth of service time, so he’ll be arbitration-eligible four times instead of the usual three. He and Pineda aren’t going anywhere. Same goes for Nova (no raise after lost season). They’ll be tendered contracts for next year.

Rogers, on the other hand, is an oh so obvious non-tender candidate at that salary. He earned $1.85M this past season, which is why his projected 2015 salary is so high. His raise isn’t expected to be that significant. Rogers had his moments in pinstripes (like this one) and his fastball/slider combination is just good enough to keep you interested, but not at $1.9M. The Yankees could always non-tender him and re-sign him at a lower salary, maybe even a minor league contract.

I don’t have any problem with Kelley at $2.5M next season — these days you basically have to throw 30 innings and not run over the closer with a bullpen cart to be worth $2.5M — even though he can be annoyingly inconsistent. At his best, he’s a true eighth inning guy who misses an awful lot of bats. At his worst, Kelley allows like four runs and gets one out. Which makes him no worse than most other relievers, really. His projected salary isn’t nearly high enough to scare me away.

The same goes for Cervelli even though I have no reason to believe he can stay healthy over the course of a full season. Quality catching is hard to find and the Yankees shouldn’t give it away for nothing just because they have John Ryan Murphy and Austin Romine (and soon Gary Sanchez) sitting in Triple-A. Even if they don’t want to keep Cervelli at that price, I think another team would give them an interesting enough low-level lottery ticket prospect in a trade. Then again, what do I know.

As for Huff, he actually pitched pretty well this past season by long man standards, posting a 1.85 ERA (4.00 FIP) in 39 innings. That’s usable. Huff’s projected salary is barely above the league minimum, so the decision whether to tender him a contract will come down to other factors like project performance and roster concerns. If the Yankees need a 40-man roster spot this winter — they’ll need one as soon as the World Series is over because A-Rod’s suspension ends — Huff could be the odd man out.

It’s worth mentioning these contracts are not guaranteed. Teams can release arbitration-eligible players who sign one-year deals before mid-March and only owe then 30 days termination pay. If they release them after mid-March but before Opening Day, it’s 45 days termination pay. The Yankees dumped Chad Gaudin this way a few years ago. They could keep Huff, see how the offseason plays out, then cut bait if a need for a roster spot arises. I’d put my money on Huff being non-tendered.

The Yankees have an uninteresting crop of arbitration-eligible players this winter. There are no real tough decisions here. It’s an easy call to non-tender Rogers and an easy enough call to keep everyone other than Huff. Huff is the only borderline guy and there’s almost no wrong decision there. If they non-tender him, fine. If they keep him, whatever. The arbitration-eligible players won’t make or break anything this offseason. The Yankees have an easy arbitration class this winter, which is good because they need to focus on lots of other stuff.

Meet the Yankees’ new good luck charm: Shawn Kelley’s horse mask

August 26, 2014 by Mike 23 Comments

Here’s a fun little story in the middle of the Yankees’ five-game winning streak. Jeff Passan wrote about the 2014 version of Jason Giambi’s gold thong: Shawn Kelley’s horse mask. It’s exactly what it sounds like, a giant latex horse mask. Here’s a photo. Apparently Kelley stumbled across it online one day, bought one, and started wearing it during pre-game warm-ups and in the clubhouse to keep the team loose.

“When I see those things, randomly in a crowd, it makes me laugh. So I figured I’ll do that, and it’ll make everyone laugh in the clubhouse,” said Kelley. “And then we went on a winning streak.” The Yankees are a perfect 5-0 since the horse mask they’ve dubbed Seabiscuit — they really dropped the ball by not called it Tex or Teixeira or something like that — so it stays. Baseball players are a superstitious lot. Say it with me, folks: the latex horse mask that turned the season around.

2014 Midseason Grades: The Bullpen

July 17, 2014 by Mike 24 Comments

Even though it is not really the halfway point of the season, there is no better time to review the first half than the All-Star break. This week we’ll hand out some simple, straightforward, and totally subjective grades, A through F, for the catchers, infielders, outfielders, rotation, and bullpen. We’ve already covered the catchers, infielders, outfielders, and rotation, so now let’s wrap up with the bullpen.

David Robertson — Grade A

So maybe replacing Mariano Rivera won’t be so difficult after all. Robertson inherited the closer’s job — to the dismay of more than a few — and has run with it, pitching to a 2.76 ERA (1.73 FIP) in 32 appearances and 32.2 innings. He is 23-for-25 in save chances with a career best strikeout rate (16.26 K/9 and 44.7 K%) and a career best ground rate (51.6%) while keeping his walk rate (2.76 BB/9 and 7.6 BB%) in line with the last two years. Robertson is also holding opponents to a .198 batting average, second lowest of his career (.170 in 2011) despite a career worst .356 BABIP.

Robertson has allowed ten earned runs this year with five coming in one disaster outing against the Twins on June 1st. He has allowed one run while striking out 27 of 56 batters faced since. Overall, 59 of 98 outs this season have been strikeouts, including 58 of 89 (65.2%) since coming off the disabled list (groin) in mid-April. No pitcher who has thrown at least 30 innings this season has a high strikeout rate. It’s not even close, really. Robertson leads in K/9 by more than one full strikeout and in K% by roughly three percentage points. He’s been dominant in every sense of the word.

The Yankees will need Robertson to continue his dominance in the second half for obvious reasons, though his looming free agency will be hanging over everyone’s head. The two sides have not discussed an extension but that could change at any time. Relievers like Robertson — super high strikeout pitchers with proven late-inning/big market chops and no history of arm problems — are rare and the Yankees should make every effort to keep him beyond this season. If his work this year doesn’t convince them he is the man to replace Rivera long-term, then I’m not sure they’ll ever find someone good enough.

Lots of (very) high fives for Dellin this year. (Presswire) — Undisputed best photo of the season. (Presswire)

Dellin Betances — Grade A

Just a few short months ago, Betances had a win a roster spot in Spring Training. Now he’s an All-Star high-leverage reliever who is 1996 Rivera to Robertson’s 1996 John Wetteland. Betances has a 1.46 ERA (1.37 FIP) while ranking third among full-time relievers in innings (55.1) and first in both fWAR (2.1) and bWAR (1.7). His strikeout rate (13.66 K/9 and 40.8 K%) is a bit behind Robertson’s but still among the highest in the league. He’s also stopped walking dudes (2.60 BB/9 and 7.8 BB%) and is getting grounders (50.5%).

Joe Girardi has not been shy about using Betances for multiple innings given his history as a starter — Betances has recorded at least four outs in 25 of his 40 appearances and at least six outs 12 times — though he did take his foot off the gas right before the All-Star break because it did appear the big right-hander was starting to fatigue a bit. His stuff was still electric but not quite as crisp. Hopefully the break recharges his batteries. A little more than a year ago, Betances looked like he may soon be out of baseball. The move into the bullpen has saved his career and given the Yankees a second elite reliever to pair with Robertson in the first season post-Mo.

Adam Warren — Grade B

From spot starter to swingman to trusted high-leverage reliever. Warren has had his role redefined over the last few seasons and he has now settled in as a quality third option behind Robertson and Betances. His numbers — 2.79 ERA (2.70 FIP) in 42 appearances and 48.1 innings — are not quite as good as those two, but he gets strikeouts (8.57 K/9 and 22.4 K%), gets grounders (46.8%), and is stingy with ball four (2.79 BB/9 and 7.3 BB%). His fastball velocity has also ticked up in short relief, averaging 94.1 mph this year after sitting 93.0 last year.

As with Betances, Girardi has taken advantage of Warren’s history as a starter by using his for multiple innings on several occasions — he’s recorded 4+ outs in 18 of his 42 appearances. The Yankees have said that if the need arises, they would pull Warren out of the bullpen and stick him in the rotation, but starters are dropping like flies and it hasn’t happened yet. Warren seems to have found a niche in short relief and he’s been a very valuable member of the bullpen despite being overshadowed by Robertson and Betances.

Shawn Kelley — Grade C

It was a tale of two first halves for Kelley, who opened the season as the regular eighth inning guy and nailed down four saves in four chances while Robertson was on the disabled list in April. He had a 1.88 (1.67 FIP) in his first 14.1 innings of the year before a disaster outing against the Angels on May 5th (two outs, four walks, three runs), after which he was placed on the disabled list with a back injury. It kept him out a month and he has a 4.05 ERA (3.21 FIP) in 13.1 innings since returning.

Kelley didn’t look right when he first returned from the back problem. He wasn’t able to finish his pitches and his trademark slider didn’t have much bite. It just kinda spun and floated. He looked much better in his last few outings before the All-Star break — one run, five hits, no walks, 13 strikeouts in 8.1 innings — and hopefully that’s a sign he’s now 100% and ready to take on some late-inning responsibilities so Girardi can spread the workload around. Definitely a mixed bag for Kelley in the first half.

Matt Thornton — Grade C

The rules of baseball fandom say we must hate the team’s lefty specialist, but Thornton has been solid (3.10 ERA and 3.04 FIP) in his 38 appearances and 20.1 innings. As his innings-to-appearances ratio suggests, Girardi has used him as a true matchup left-hander and not tried to force it against righties whenever possible. Thornton has held same-side hitters to a .229/.319/.244 (.262 wOBA) batting line with a 15.1% strikeout rate, a 3.8% walk rate, and a 50.0% ground ball rate. Solid.

The only real negative about Thornton is he doesn’t miss bats, even against left-handed hitters. That 15.1% strikeout rate is 76th out of the 90 left-handed pitchers who have faced at least 50 left-handed batters this year. Lefties have swung and missed only 20 times at the 220 pitches Thornton has thrown them this year (9.1%). That kinda sucks for a left-on-left reliever. Thornton missed a week with undisclosed soreness right before the break but did return to pitch against the Indians last week. LOOGYs, huh? Can’t live with ’em, can’t live without ’em.

Preston Claiborne and David Huff — Grade C

Remember how awful Claiborne looked in Spring Training? We were talking about him as a candidate to be dropped from the 40-man roster if a need arose, but the Yankees kept him around and he pitched to a 3.57 ERA (3.82 FIP) in 17.2 innings while going up and down a few times in the first half. Three of his nine walks were intentional, uglifying his numbers a bit. Claiborne is currently on the Triple-A Scranton disabled list with a shoulder injury of unknown severity, which is not insignificant given his status as the team’s primary up and down depth arm.

The Yankees re-acquired Huff from the Giants in mid-June as part of their continuing efforts to find a not awful long man, and he’s since given the team 16.2 innings of 2.16 ERA (5.18 FIP) ball. Girardi used him as a matchup lefty while Thornton was out with his soreness and that predictably did not go well. Warren was pretty awesome by long man standards last year and that kinda spoiled us. Most long relievers stink. Is Huff keeping runs off the board? His ERA says yes. Has it been pretty? No but who cares. In that role you just want someone who can limited the damage and Huff has done that for the most part.

Alfredo Aceves — Grade F

Did you realize Aceves threw the sixth most innings among the team’s relievers in the first half? I sure didn’t. The Mexican Gangster threw 5.1 scoreless innings in long relief in his first outing back with the team, but it was all downhill from there. He allowed 14 runs on 20 hits (six homers!) and four walks in his next nine games and 14 innings, putting his overall season numbers at 6.52 ERA (6.29 FIP) in 19.1 total innings. The Yankees designated Aceves for assignment in early-June, he accepted the outright assignment to Triple-A Scranton, and he was recently suspended 50 games after a second failed test for a drug of abuse. He will be missed by: no one.

Matt Daley, Jose Ramirez, Bruce Billings, Jim Miller, Chris Leroux, Cesar Cabral, and Wade LeBlanc — Grade F

The combined pitching line of these seven: 33.2 IP, 46 H, 36 R, 33 ER, 19 BB, 33 K, 6 HBP, 6 HR. That’s an 8.82 ERA and a 5.19 FIP in one more inning than Robertson has thrown this year. I didn’t even include Dean Anna. /barfs

* * *

Girardi has had to rely on his bullpen more than I’m sure he would have liked in the first half, mostly because of the rotation injuries. Yankees relievers have thrown 292 innings this season, the 13th most in MLB, though their 264 total pitching changes are only 23rd most. That’s because of guys like Betances, Warren, and Huff being used for multiple innings at a time.

The bullpen has a 3.85 ERA (3.60 FIP) overall, which is bottom third in the league, but they have a top-heavy relief crew with arguably the best setup man/closer tandem in the game. The late innings are no problem at all. The middle innings are where it gets messy. Kelley is the bullpen key to the second half to me — if he gets back to pitching like he did before his back started acting up, Girardi will have another trustworthy high-strikeout arm who could potential solve that middle innings problem.

Yankees activate Shawn Kelley, send Matt Daley to Triple-A

June 11, 2014 by Mike 4 Comments

As expected, the Yankees have activated righty Shawn Kelley off the 15-day DL, the team announced. He missed about a month with a back problem. Fellow righty Matt Daley was optioned to Triple-A Scranton to clear a roster spot. Jose Ramirez remains with the team and figures to get a long look in a middle relief role in the coming weeks.