Previewing the Rule 5 draft

We’re hearing some buzz surrounding the Yanks’ first pick in tomorrow’s Rule 5 draft, so let’s take a look at what they’re saying.

• First up is ESPN’s Jayson Stark, who says that the Yankees “are shopping the No. 1 pick in Thursday’s Rule 5 draft.” I doubt this happens. What they’d get in return probably wouldn’t outweigh the possible upside of the pick, so chances are they’ll just hold onto it. The only way I can see them dishing it is if they get back a player not on a team’s 40-man roster (and not Rule 5 eligible).
• As for who they’ll take, FanHouse’s Frank Piliere thinks it will be Arquimedes Caminero. Piliere “scouted him extensively this year,” and it sounds like the pick has his blessing. The problem is that he’s 22 and pitched just 40.2 innings in relief last year, only 2.1 of which came as high as A+. Players can make that kind of jump, but it’s unlikely he’d stick.
• Speaking of A+ ball players, Baseball America’s John Manuel lists a few names, including Jason Rice of the Red Sox. He throws gas and dominated A+, striking out 94 in 70 innings. He walked 41, though, which makes him an unlikely pick.
• Manuel mentions two other names: Bobby Cassevah of the Angels, a ground ball machine (4.03 GO/FO ratio) who pitched to a 3.68 ERA in AA last season. Craig Baker is another name. He struck out 75 in 63 innings while closing games for the Rockies class A affiliate.
• Chad Jennings likes Chad Tracy and Matt McBride, both of whom are right-handed outfielders who can play first base and catch. Mike mentioned Tracy in his Rule 5 post the other day.
• Personally, I think it will be Yohan Pino. He’s more advanced than the other candidates who has displayed great control in the minors. He also owns a 1.15 WHIP. Then there’s Tommy Mendoza, also of the Angels, who also has good control.

We’re less than 24 hours from the draft. If the Internet permits, I’ll set up a chat tomorrow morning.