There are 13 questions in this week’s Grapefruit League opening mailbag. Hooray for real live baseball. As always, RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com are where you can send us questions.
Ryan asks: So Tanaka has come over and done VERY well in the majors. In comparison, Daisuke Matsuzaka was heralded as highly and did not have a great career. Also, Yu Darvish has been good as well. Compared to other Japanese pitchers, where does Tanaka rank as far as success in the MLB?
I’d say Dice-K came over with far more hype than Tanaka or Darvish. The hype for that guy was out of control. Off the top of my head, I’d say Tanaka has been the fourth most successful Japanese-born pitcher in MLB behind Darvish, Hideo Nomo, and Hiroki Kuroda. Thankfully WAR exists, and it’s perfect for a question like this one. Here are the top ten Japanese-born players in MLB history by WAR:
- Ichiro Suzuki (+59.9 WAR)
- Hideo Nomo (+21.8 WAR)
- Hiroki Kuroda (+21.7 WAR)
- Hideki Matsui (+21.3 WAR)
- Hisashi Iwakuma (+16.5 WAR)
- Yu Darvish (+15.8 WAR)
- Koji Uehara (+13.6 WAR)
- Tomo Ohka (+11.9 WAR)
- Masahiro Tanaka (+11.7 WAR)
- Shigetoshi Hasegawa (+11.6 WAR)
I completely forgot about Iwakuma, so my bad on that. Tanaka has thrown more MLB innings than Uehara (490 to 437.2), though we’re comparing a reliever to a starter. Ohka has a +0.2 WAR edge on Tanaka in 580 more innings. At this point I’d say Tanaka is no worse than the sixth best Japanese-born pitcher in MLB history behind Nomo, Kuroda, Iwakuma, Darvish, and Uehara. There’s a pretty good chance Tanaka will pass Uehara on the WAR leaderboard this year too.
(With all due respect to Nomo, who was truly a pioneer for Japanese baseball players, Kuroda has an essentially identical WAR in 657.1 fewer innings. Also, Shigetoshi Hasegawa was an all-time great Bob Sheppard voice name.)
Mike asks: Can you put in perspective where 2012 (#1 Ranked) Mason Williams would fall in the 2017 top 30?
It was 2013, not 2012 when Williams was at the peak of his prospect-dom. Baseball America ranked him as the Yankees’ best prospect and the 32nd best prospect in baseball that year. Meanwhile, both RAB and MLB.com ranked Williams as the team’s No. 2 prospect behind Gary Sanchez. Either way, Williams or Sanchez, the Yankees had a very good top prospect back in 2013 and both would have rated highly in this year’s top 30. I would have ranked them like so:
- Gleyber Torres
- Clint Frazier
- 2013 Gary Sanchez
- Aaron Judge
- 2013 Mason Williams
- Blake Rutherford
- James Kaprielian
- Justus Sheffield
- Jorge Mateo
- Miguel Andujar
Sanchez finished the 2012 season at High-A Tampa and both his power and rocket arm were already on full display. Williams had the better statistical season in 2012, hitting .298/.346/.474 (125 wRC+) between Low-A and High-A, though the power hitting catcher won out for me. Given how things have played out since then, I feel validated.
Chris asks: My question is, what’s the soonest you could possibly see Kaprielian going to double-A? Assuming his first starts are limited to five innings. Is 15 lights outs inning over three starts enough? 25 over 5? It took Sev 8 GS over 32 IP in 2015 at Trenton before they moved him to Scranton.
Pretty soon, I think. Mid-May or so. The main reason for sending Kaprielian to High-A to start the season rather than Double-A is the weather. It’s a heck of a lot warmer in Tampa in April than it is in Trenton, and you don’t want the kid from Southern California pitching in cold weather for the first time immediately after a pretty serious elbow injury. Unless he gets rocked in April, which is unlikely to happen given his stuff and pedigree, I think Kaprielian will be at Double-A before the end of May, for sure. Six or seven starts in Tampa, thereabouts.
John asks: Which Yankee ZiPS projections would you “take” right now for 2017? Judge (30 homers) seems the most obvious, who else?
Yeah, Judge is the big one. ZiPS projects him as a .229/.301/.479 (112 OPS+) hitter with 30 homers and +2.2 WAR right now. First full season in the big leagues? I’d sign up for that right now. Most promising ZiPS projections are on the pitching side for me. Getting 156.2 innings of 3.96 ERA (3.38 FIP) ball from Michael Pineda would be pretty rad after the last two seasons. Same thing with Luis Severino and his 4.20 ERA (3.94 FIP) in 152 innings projection. Jonathan Holder throwing 67 innings with a 3.63 ERA (3.42 FIP) and great strikeout (27.1%) and walk (5.4%) rates would be a hell of a thing. The bullpen could really use someone like that for the middle innings.
Michael asks: If the Yankees’ relationship with Dellin Betances has been greatly damaged by Randy Levine’s (stupid) comments, wouldn’t a trade sooner rather than later make the most sense?
Nope. The Yankees are not going to make roster decisions, especially one involving a great player, based on someone’s hurt feelings. Dellin is a pro and he’s gone about his business since the arbitration ruling. The Yankees will trade Betances only if it makes sense for the organization, not because the two sides aren’t BFFs anymore. And when Betances becomes a free agent in three years, he’s going to make the best decision for him and his family. That was always the case. The Betances-Levine stuff was unfortunate, but a war of words won’t lead to a knee-jerk trade, at least not as long as Brian Cashman calls the shots. If Levine and ownership get involved like they have in the past though, all bets are off.
Paul asks: Looking back, do you think it was better with A-Rod at 3B and Jeter at SS or would it have been better the other way around?
At the time of the trade Alex Rodriguez was one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball while Derek Jeter was one of the worst, so yeah, the Yankees would have been better off with A-Rod at short and Jeter at third. I’m not sure how that would have worked long-term. By 2010 or 2011, Rodriguez’s mobility was pretty far gone due to his hip problems. Would A-Rod with bad hips have been a better defensive shortstop than Jeter? Probably not. In the short-term they would have been better off with Rodriguez at short. No doubt about it. I’m not quite sure what it would have meant long-term. Maybe the Yankees would have never re-signing an aging shortstop to a ten-year deal after 2007. And, in that case, maybe they don’t win the 2009 World Series. Hmmm.
Michael asks: Last week there was a question on whether Brian Cashman deserves a plaque in Monument Park. Is there a possibility John Sterling and/or Michael Kay get one after all their years of doing Yankee broadcasting? Certainly they are no Mel Allen, but then again, Paul O’Neill and others were no Babe Ruth.
Oh man, Sterling is definitely getting a plaque in Monument Park, isn’t he? He’s been calling Yankees games for almost 30 years now, and he hasn’t missed one since 1989. Based on this Jim Baumbach article, Sterling’s streak is currently at 4,493 consecutive games called, and he’s given no indication retirement is in his near future. He’s the MC for the team’s on-field ceremonies and he hosts Yankeeography and all that on YES as well. Sterling is the voice of the Yankees at this point.
Kay still has a ways to go, I think. He was splitting time between the Yankees and Knicks as recently as 1999, so he hasn’t been full-time with the Yankees that long. Not long enough to get a plaque in Monument Park, anyway. Kay has been the team’s primary television play-by-play man since YES launched in 2002 and there’s no reason to think that will change anytime soon. He’ll have to keep at it a while longer to get Monument Park consideration, I think. Sterling might be there already.
Dan asks: Does Brett Gardner have 10 and 5 rights after this season? Does this affect the Yankees desire to move him?
Let’s start with a real quick primer on 10-and-5 rights for anyone not familiar with baseball’s quirky rules. From MLB.com:
Players who have accrued 10 years of Major League service time and spent the past five consecutive years with the same team are awarded 10-and-5 rights. Under these circumstances, a player can veto any trade scenario that is proposed. In essence, 10-and-5 rights function as a full no-trade clause.
As for Gardner, he will start the 2017 season with eight years and 72 days of service time. In the world of baseball 172 days equals a year, so Gardner needs another year and 100 days to get his 10-and-5 rights. That will put him on target to get them sometime in July 2018. The Yankees have been shopping Gardner since last offseason and while I’m sure they’re aware of his 10-and-5 situation, it’s not a pressing matter. They still have time before those become a concern.
(Gardner doesn’t have a no-trade clause in his contract. Not even a limited one. He will receive a $1M bonus each time he’s traded, however.)
RJ asks: Mike, how does the union generate revenue? Do players contribute a percentage of their salaries or maybe get a percentage from MLB endorsements/ TV contracts? Can they choose whether they want to be in or out of the union?
Yep, the players pay union dues. I have no idea what they are, but I assume they’re pretty substantial given their salaries. Also, the union negotiates licensing deals for baseball cards and video games and all that. They get a piece of that pie as well. Same goes for the national television contracts. A chunk of that goes to the players. And yes, players can opt out of the union, or just parts of it. Barry Bonds opted out of the licensing agreement, which is why he was never in any video games. He was Reggie Stocker in The Show and Jon Dowd in MVP Baseball. Good times, good times.
P.J. asks: Back on January 9th you published a piece about the Yankees Rule 5 eligible players for next winter. Of that list of about 23 players including the potential Minor League FA’s how many and which ones do you think the Yankees absolutely need to protect?
Here is the list of players from that post. This isn’t comprehensive, just the most notable names:
Catchers: None
Infielders: Abi Avelino, Thairo Estrada, Gleyber Torres, Tyler Wade
Outfielders: Jake Cave, Rashad Crawford, Dustin Fowler, Clint Frazier, Billy McKinney, Leonardo Molina, Tito Polo
Pitchers: Albert Abreu, Domingo Acevedo, Daniel Camarena, Ian Clarkin, Nestor Cortes, J.P. Feyereisen, Zack Littell, Jordan Montgomery, Nick Rumbelow, Eric Swanson, Stephen Tarpley
I count seven absolute must-protect players: Abreu, Acevedo, Fowler, Frazier, Montgomery, Torres, and Wade. McKinney, Camarena, Clarkin, and Littell could also receive serious consideration based on their 2017 seasons. There’s a pretty good chance Frazier and Montgomery (and Feyereisen) will make their MLB debuts this summer, so they figure to already be on the 40-man roster by time Rule 5 Draft decision time comes.
The Yankees currently have five impending free agents on the 40-man roster: Chris Carter, Tyler Clippard, Matt Holliday, Michael Pineda, and CC Sabathia. Tanaka can opt-out as well. They’ll need to clear two spots at a minimum, but keep in mind there will inevitably be players on the 60-day disabled list who have to be activated the end of the season. The Yankees had to clear five 40-man spots to make room for Rule 5 Draft eligible players this offseason. I wouldn’t be surprised if they need to do the same after this season.
Erick asks: Mike, non-Yankee related, Albert Pujols and 700 homeruns. He has 591 career homers, five more years in his contract, hit 31 last year, can he average 22 for the remaining part of his contract?
Geez, still five years left on his deal? That’s a humdinger of a contract. I don’t think he’s going to get to 700. Pujols’ feet are a wreck at this point. He’s had foot surgery each of the last two offseasons as well as back in 2012. Hitting starts from the ground up, and if you don’t have a good base underneath you, it’ll compromise your power. Also, this will be his age 37 season. Pujols needs 109 homers to get to 700, and only eleven players have hit that many after their age 36 season. As we saw with A-Rod and Mark Teixeira last year, and Alfonso Soriano in 2014, when it goes, it can go quick. Asking a player, even one as great as Pujols, to average 22 homers a season from 37-41 is an awful lot. I think he’ll fall short of 700 and have to “settle” for being fifth or sixth on the all-time home run list.
Brent asks: I know it’s easy for couch GM’s to second guess things but the Jacoby Ellsbury signing seemed bad from the jump. At least from the informed baseball fan group. I believe Cashman’s a smart guy and the signing was more of a Hal thing. Was this a miserable attempt at re-igniting the rivalry between Boston and trying to make a run with one of their better players?
I don’t remember where I read this — I think it was a Joel Sherman article shortly after the signing — but I remember reading a report that said everyone was on board with the Ellsbury signing. Cashman, Steinbrenner, the rest of the front office and ownership, everyone. I think the deal was the result of the Yankees overestimating …
- Ellsbury’s ability to do something close to his 2011 season again.
- Ellsbury’s durability on the basis that several of his previous injuries were flukes.
- The value of thriving in a similar high-pressure market like Boston.
- The impact of taking Ellsbury away from the Red Sox and adding him to their roster.
That last one never made sense to me, yet it was a common argument in favor of the signing. It only works if the Red Sox were trying to bring Ellsbury back, which they very clearly weren’t. They were going to lose him anyway. Adding him to your roster doesn’t make it hurt twice as much.
I don’t think the signing had anything to do with re-igniting the rivalry. I think the Yankees overvalued Ellsbury because he had success with the Red Sox, the team that plays in the closest environment to the New York market. It was a terrible contract the day it was signed — how much did they overpay if Scott Boras was willing to let his top client sign before the Winter Meetings? — and the Yankees deserve what they’ve gotten.
Dan asks: I know that we can know only as much as the media tells us, but after reporting yesterday that Derek Jeter took some of the Yankees top prospects to dinner it got me thinking. How much do you really think the Captains Camp helps the prospects? Also, obviously there not many other teams that have the same history as the Yankees, but do you think other teams take as much time as the Yankees do for their young kids?
I don’t see how it could hurt, do you? I know other clubs have some sort of mini-camp or rookie development program, but I don’t know if anyone does anything as extensive as Captain’s Camp, which is a six-week program. From what I understand, Captain’s Camp is more about developing their off-the-field skills than anything. They teach the kids to be accountable, how to handle the media, all that. Basically how to represent the Yankees in a positive way. The players get to bond and develop relationships, and I see that as nothing but a positive.
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