Game 40: Big night for A.J.

The bullpen has faltered. The lineup, while it has scored plenty of runs in the past two games, isn’t at its strongest. This is a game where A.J. Burnett needs to step up and turn in a performance that will 1) allow the Yanks to skirt by with four or fewer runs, and 2) give the bullpen a night off. A complete game might be asking a bit much — Burnett hasn’t pitched one since August 17th of last year, and hasn’t pitched a nine-inning one since May 16, 2007. Pitching into the eighth, however, will suffice.

It won’t be an easy task. While Burnett pitched well against the Rays earlier this year, they’re still an incredibly tough team. Their 5.31 runs per game ranks second in the A.L. this season. First, of course, is the Yankees, at 5.77 runs per game. The Rays hitters, however, haven’t fared all that well against Burnett. Only Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria, and B.J. Upton hold career OBPs of over .300 against him. Then again, we’re talking pretty small samples here. Burnett’s performance will depend far more on his two-seamer and curveball than how well the Rays hit him historically.

The Rays not only rank second in run scoring, but also first in run prevention. They have allowed just 2.97 runs per game this season, almost a run per game less than the second-ranked team. That second-ranked team? None other than your own New York Yankees. Wade Davis has been the least effective run preventer in the Rays rotation, but even he has a 3.38 ERA. As I mentioned this afternoon, Davis is pitching well above his peripherals. Tonight would be a great one for a statistical correction.

Posada and Swisher are still out of the lineup. Last night Swisher said one more day, and, via Chad Jennings, he said the same today. His injury still doesn’t sound bad — he already had an MRI on it — so let’s just hope he’s back before we have to endure any more of Marcus Thames in the field. Jorge Posada’s foot is still hurting, and he’s undergone some tests. Girardi said he’d be the emergency catcher, but man, I can’t imagine having to squat on a bum toe. I expect he’ll come back as a DH before catching his next game.

Lineup:

1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Brett Gardner, CF
3. Mark Teixeira, DH
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Robinson Cano, 2B
6. Francisco Cervelli, C
7. Marcus Thames, RF as best he can
8. Juan MIranda, 1B
9. Randy Winn, LF

And on the mound, number thirty-four, A.J. Burnett, number thirty-four.