River Avenue Blues

River Ave. Blues » 2013 Draft » Page 12

2013 Draft: Oscar Mercado

by 34 Comments

The 2013 amateur draft will be held from June 6-8 this year, and between now and then I’m going to highlight some prospects individually rather than lump them together into larger posts.

Oscar Mercado | SS

Background
Mercado was born in Colombia, but he and his family moved to the United States when he was eight years old. He plays for Gaither High School in Tampa — a straight shot on Dale Mabry Boulevard and about 20 minutes from George M. Steinbrenner Field — and is committed to Florida State.

Scouting Report
Listed at 6-foot-2 and 175 lbs., Mercado’s calling card is his defense. He’s a no-doubt shortstop long-term because of his fast-twitch athleticism, quick reactions, soft hands, and strong throwing arm. The concern is his offense, as it’s unclear if he’ll hit enough in pro ball. Mercado, a right-handed hitter, is a line drive hitter without much power or much projection for future power. He can run and is a threat to steal, but he simply might not hit enough against better pitching. Here’s some more video.

Miscellany
Baseball America (subs. req’d) and Keith Law (subs. req’d) ranked Mercado as the 30th and 34th best prospect in the draft, respectively, in their latest rankings. He’s one of the two best shortstops in the draft — California high schooler J.P. Crawford is the other, and he’s expected to be a top 10-15 pick — and the Yankees love raw-ish, up-the-middle athletes. Considering he plays right in their back yard in Tampa, it’s safe to say Mercado is at least on their radar and someone they could consider for one of their top three selections (26th, 32nd, 33rd).

2013 Draft: Rob Kaminsky

by 18 Comments

The 2013 amateur draft will be held from June 6-8 this year, and between now and then I’m going to highlight some prospects individually rather than lump them together into larger posts.

Rob Kaminsky | LHP

Background
A local kid out of St. Joseph Regional High School in Montvale, New Jersey, Kaminsky threw three no-hitters and three one-hitters as a junior last spring. He allowed just a dozen hits against 103 strikeouts in 53 total innings. He’s committed to North Carolina.

Scouting Report
Kaminsky is a short-ish left-hander with little projection remaining in his 6-foot-0, 190 lb. frame. His fastball sits comfortably in the 89-91 mph range and he runs it up to 93 regularly, though he’s unlikely to add much more oomph given his size. A sharp upper-70s curveball and very advanced (for a prepster) low-80s changeup round out his repertoire. Everything Kaminsky throws plays up because he pitches aggressively to both sides of the plate. He’s very polished with a good idea of how to pitch considering his age and relative lack of pitching experience as cold weather state kid. Here’s some more video.

Miscellany
Baseball America and Keith Law (both subs. req’d) recently ranked Kaminsky as the 26th and 45th best prospect in the draft, respectively. UNC has traditionally been a tough commitment to break, but the Yankees did buy right-hander Bryan Mitchell away from the Tar Heels with an above-slot bonus back in 2009. New Jersey isn’t exactly a baseball hotbed — the Yankees have drafted just five players out of the state since taking Eric Duncan in the first round back in 2003 (Sean Black is the most notable) — though teams are spending more time in the Northeast these days thanks to Mike Trout. Scouting director Damon Oppenheimer loves polished pitchers and Kaminsky certainly qualifies, but he also tends to prefer tall and projectable kids.

2013 Draft: Billy McKinney

by 13 Comments

The 2013 amateur draft will be held from June 6-8 this year, and between now and then I’m going to highlight some prospects individually rather than lump them together into larger posts.

Billy McKinney | OF

Background
A Texas kid out of Plano West High School, McKinney played for the Texas Scout Team Yankees last fall — the Yankees use the club to familiarize themselves with Texas high school prospects (2012 second rounder Austin Aune played for the squad a year ago) — and starred at the Perfect Game World Wood Bat Association World Championship in Florida back in November. He’s committed to TCU.

Scouting Report
McKinney, who is listed at 6-foot-1 and 195 lbs., stands out for his offensive potential from the left side of the plate. He consistently gets the fat part of the bat on the ball thanks to his smooth and easy left-handed swing. McKinney is a line drive gap-to-gap hitter with some power potential, and the hitting tools all play up because of his advanced approach. He’s one of the best pure hitters in the draft class, high school or college.

Although he plays center field in high school and shows good speed with an okay arm, McKinney might end up in a corner outfield spot down the line as he fills out and slows down. Regardless, his bat is his calling card and the reason teams are looking at him prior to the draft. Here’s some more video. Love that swing.

Miscellany
Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked McKinney as 23rdth best prospect in the class in today’s updated rankings while Keith Law (subs. req’d) had him 27th last month. He looks to be very much in that late-first round/supplemental round mix at the moment, and we know he’s on the Yankees’ radar since he played for their Texas Scout Team just a few months ago. The Yankees love pure high school hitters like J.R. Murphy and Tyler Austin even if their position is unsettled, so McKinney sure seems like someone they could target with one of their top three picks (26th, 32nd, 33rd).

2013 Draft: Opening Thoughts

by 135 Comments

Mark Appel remains the favorite to go first overall. (AP)
Mark Appel remains the favorite to go first overall. (AP)

Given their newfound austerity and the fact that more and more star players are signing long-term extensions, the farm system will be more important for the Yankees going forward than it ever was before. If they plan to remain competitive year after year — I don’t expect those intentions to change, they are the Yankees after all — they’ll need a deep and steady pipeline of young prospects to plug into the roster and trade for established big leaguers.

Because of the way the most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement changed the system, the Yankees are going to have to simply out-scout and out-develop other teams. They will never have access to top amateur talent as long as they remain competitive, so finding those diamonds in the rough and turning them into useful players will be extra important going forward. I’m not very confident the current regime can actually do that, but they have made some player development changes in recent years — most notably re-hiring pitching coordinator Gil Patterson — so maybe things will change. We’ll see.

When writing about the draft in recent years, in tended to put together posts focusing on prospects who were grouped together somehow. High school bats, players with good makeup, pitchers who had success in the Cape Cod League … whatever. They were almost always players I liked for whatever reason. I want to get away from that this spring and instead highlight individual players who fit what appears to be the Yankees’ draft philosophy. That means players with good makeup, athletic high school position players, hard-throwing college arms, and big-framed high school pitchers.

I still have my personal favorites and I’m sure I’ll wind up writing about those guys as well, but I plan to pump out shorter player profiles like this one I did last year for outfielder Ty Moore last spring. The Yankees wound up drafting him in the later rounds but did not sign him. Those shorter posts make it easier to be a little more specific and provide more information about a player while also being easier to reference in the future. Plus there will be more of them; instead of one big post every so often there will be smaller posts regularly. I dunno, maybe I’m wrong, but I feel like getting away from group posts of four of five players in favor of more short, individual player posts is more informative and enjoyable. At least it is on my end.

Anyway, the Yankees have three relatively high picks and a lot of draft pool money available this year. It will also be their last chance to add multiple high-end prospects to the farm system with a single draft for a while. They don’t really have any qualifying offer-worth players on the roster scheduled to become free agents in the next few years (outside of Robinson Cano, obviously), so they’re stuck with the picks they have. The draft will be fun this season as fans thanks to those three high picks, but its importance to the club can not be overstated. They need to bring in quality and quantity this year.

2013 Draft: Yankees get $7,957,400 in draft pool money

by 27 Comments

Jim Callis of Baseball America has rounded up this year’s recommended slot bonuses and draft pool totals now that the draft order is finally final. The Astros lead the way with a $11.7M pool — the reward for having baseball’s worst record — while the Nationals get just $2.7M after losing their first rounder for signing Rafael Soriano. Overall, the slot values and draft pools rose more than 8% this year.

The Yankees will have $7,957,400 in draft pool money — the eighth most in baseball — to sign their 12 picks in the top ten rounds. They received supplemental first round picks for losing Soriano and Nick Swisher to free agency, giving them three of the top 33 picks. As I wrote over the weekend, the Yankees really need to nail those top three picks and add some fast-moving impact talent to the farm system. Is that easy? Hell no, but it’s imperative given the state and direction of the big league roster.

2013 Draft: Draft order finally set

by 49 Comments

Now that Kyle Lohse has finally signed a contract, the 2013 draft order is officially set. The Competitive Balance Lottery Round A and B picks can still be traded between now and the draft, but that won’t affect the Yankees unless they somehow acquire one of those picks. I’m betting against that happening.

The Yankees own three of the top 33 picks thanks to the free agent defections of Nick Swisher and Rafael Soriano, the first time they’ve held three of the top 33 picks since 1978 (!), when they had three of the top 26 picks. They did have three of the top 42 picks in both 2001 and 2004, however. Add in their second rounder, and the Yankees will own four of the top 66 picks this year. Based on last year’s slot values, the Yankees are looking at a $7.3M or so draft pool for the first ten rounds. Those top three picks are each worth $1.5M+.

That draft pool number figures to change depending on what the slot values are this summer, but either way the Yankees are going to have a ton of money to spend on the draft this summer. They really need to knock it out of the park with those high selections, grabbing talent and not just good makeup. Gary Sanchez, Slade Heathcott, and Mason Williams all had some kind of makeup concern in the past and now they’re arguably the three best prospects in the system. Talent reigns supreme and the Yankees have a chance to add a lot of this summer.

Mailbag: Pollock, Kennedy, Jackson, Draft

by 76 Comments

After nursing from the mailbag teat during the holidays, it’s time to get back to the once-a-week Friday morning mailbag setup. I’ve got four questions for you this week and entirely too many words worth of answers. Please use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar to send us anything throughout the week.

(Ezra Shaw/Getty)

Davis asks: Now that the Diamondbacks have signed Cody Ross, is there a chance that they will trade someone like A.J. Pollock? He bats right, has showed solid doubles power and seems to be pretty good on defense. He might make some sense for the Yankees, even if only as depth in case of an injury.

The D’Backs have a ton of outfielders. We all know about Justin Upton, Jason Kubel, Gerardo Parra, and Ross, but they also have Adam Eaton (117 wRC+ during his September call-up) and Pollock. The 25-year-old Pollock hit .247/.315/.395 (83 wRC+) in 93 plate appearances with Arizona last season, his big league debut. Prior to that he hit .318/.369/.411 (105 wRC+) in 471 plate appearances in the hitter friendly Triple-A Pacific Coast League. Baseball America ranked him as the team’s sixth best prospect before the season, and here’s a snippet of what they had to say in their subscriber-only scouting report…

First and foremost, he’s a blue-collar player with great makeup and excellent instincts in all phases of the game. He’s a line-drive, gap-to-gap hitter who squares balls up consistently and produces lots of doubles. He could develop 15-homer power once he gets stronger. He makes contact so easily that it hampers his ability to draw walks. Though he has just average speed, Pollock is the system’s best baserunner … He’s solid defensively at all three outfield positions, making good reads in center field and displaying an average arm … Though some scouts see him as a fourth outfielder because he isn’t loaded with plus tools, the Diamondbacks envision him becoming a solid regular.

Because he was added to the 40-man roster just last year and didn’t accumulate a full season’s worth of service time, Pollock has two minor league options remaining and all six years of team control. He didn’t have much of a platoon split in the minors over the last two seasons and his big league performance tells us nothing, but either way it’s still too early to pigeon-hole him into the right-handed half of a platoon.

Pollock is a (much) better prospect than Melky Mesa and Zoilo Almonte, and he also provides more roster flexibility than Chris Dickerson, so yeah the Yankees should definitely be interested. I like his chances of sticking as a regular by 2014 much more than I do Mesa’s or Zoilo’s, that’s for sure. Prospect-for-prospect trades don’t happen very often because teams are like parents, they all love their own kids more than everyone else’s. I’m not sure what the D’Backs need at the big league level at this point or if they’re even willing to move Pollock despite their glut of outfielders, but he would certainly be a fit for New York.

Mark asks: Doesn’t Adam Kennedy make some sense to fill an Eric Chavez-type role? He also has the benefit of playing played 2B (a lot) and the outfield (a little).

Kennedy, 36, is opening a baseball academy in Anaheim but is not officially retiring and remains open to playing according to Alden Gonzalez. He hit .262/.345/.357 (97 wRC+) in 201 plate appearances for the Dodgers last season while missing more than a month with a groin strain and playing primarily first, second, and third bases. It was his best offensive season since 2009 and second best since 2005, thanks mostly to a career-high walk rate (11.4% in 2012 and 6.6% career) that I really can’t explain. His plate discipline rates didn’t change and he only had eight total plate appearances as the number eight hitter (ahead of the pitcher), so who knows.

As a left-handed batter, Kennedy hit righties pretty well last season (107 wRC+) but not over the last three seasons (85 wRC+). He does put the ball in play (14.4 K% and 86.1% contact rate) and offer some versatility (mostly the non-shortstop infield spots), which counts for something. It’s not much, but it’s something. If Kennedy is willing to leave Southern California and take a minor league contract, sure, bring him to camp a la Chavez in 2011. I can’t imagine guaranteeing him anything though, this isn’t some former star with upside.

(Greg Fiume/Getty)

Damix asks: Given the uncertainty of next year’s market for Phil Hughes, do you think signing Edwin Jackson to the same contract he received would have been a smarter plan for the 2014 budget?

The Cubs officially signed Jackson, who is a little less than three years older that Hughes, to a four-year deal worth $52M earlier this week. That’s $13M annually and the going rate for a slightly better than league average starter. Jackson has been consistently solid over the last four seasons even though his ERA has fluctuated wildly, plus he’s a workhorse who will provide 30+ starts and 180+ innings no questions asked. I think he would have gotten more money had a) his velocity not dropped more than a mile-an-hour last season, and b) he not had a brutal September (6.54 ERA).

Hughes, on the other hand, has been anything but consistent and a workhorse. He’s managed two league average seasons in the last three years and has a chance to make it three in four years before hitting the open market next winter. Hughes has a longer injury history but has done it in the AL East, in the tiny ballpark, and in the postseason (outside of the nightmare that was the 2010 ALCS), and that kind of stuff pays in free agency. If he repeats his 2012 season in 2013, I bet he winds up with a deal closer to Anibal Sanchez’s than Jackson’s given his age.

Anyway, back to the actual question. I’m not a huge believer in Jackson but that is definitely a fair price in my book. I think he’s been overrated because his stuff says he should be an ace, but the last half-decade of performance shows he’s coming up short. He’s a classic “we can fix him” guy, especially at that age. The Yankees are going to need to plug a few rotation spots next winter and Jackson would be a nice guy to have around, but I’m not losing sleep over it.

Jeff asks: Are the Yankees setting themselves up well for the future with the MLB draft? They have four picks in the first 65. Looking ahead to 2014 the Yankees will likely have at least 2-6 picks depending on what happens with Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson, Hughes, Hiroki Kuroda and Kevin Youkilis. Those draftees won’t impact the team for 4-6 years, but is this a good way for the Yankees to focus on the farm?

As soon as Rafael Soriano signs somewhere, the Yankees will own three of the first 35 picks in this year’s draft and four of the first 65-ish picks (obligatory Draft Order page plug). That would change if they re-sign Soriano or sign one of the other compensation free agents (Michael Bourn, Adam LaRoche, Kyle Lohse), but I don’t see any of that happening. The Yankees have had three of the first 100 picks just once twice in the last nine years (2008 and 2012), nevermind four of the top 65(-ish).

Based on last year’s slot values (which are expected to increase this year), those top three picks will all be worth seven figures and that’s huge as far as the draft pool and spending restrictions go. The Yankees have to start doing a better job with their high draft picks, it’s imperative given the new system and the team’s desires to curtail payroll. It’s too early to know much about the strength about this year’s draft class, but that’s irrelevant really. There is always talent available and they’re going to have some major bucks to spend in the first round. I think it’s fair to say this coming draft will be the team’s most important since 2006, when they were in desperate need of farm system help (and knocked it out of park with that draft haul).

As for the 2014 draft, I wouldn’t count on those extra picks yet. The Yankees would surely make Cano a qualifying offer, but Granderson, Kuroda, and especially Youkilis are far from guarantees. Given the impending payroll slashing, I don’t think the team would risk that much money in qualifying offers even if the players are worth it. Remember, the offers won’t be $13.3M again next year. They’ll go up since they’re based on the average of top 125 salaries. We’ll worry about that draft a year from now.