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James Paxton may’ve been tipping his pitches in Houston, but command is his biggest problem right now

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(Presswire)

Three starts into the new season, prized offseason pickup James Paxton is sitting on a 6.00 ERA (4.41 FIP) in 15 innings. He’s allowed eleven runs and put 26 runners on base. Opponents are hitting .328/.388/.577 against him. That is capital-B Bad. It’s also three starts. Paxton has had one good start, one okay start, and one bad start. The start of his Yankees career has been uneven at best.

“One result or another is always attributed to (playing in New York) when the reality is, more often than not, it’s baseball,” Aaron Boone said yesterday regarding Paxton’s start to the season. “Results, especially early in the season, can sometimes be a little mixed and fleeting and in and out, and we attach a reason to it rather than the game’s tough, and guys get in and out of locked in.”

The Astros worked over Paxton in his most recent start, scoring five runs and putting eleven men on base in four innings plus two batters. He faced 21 batters and nine saw at least five pitches. The Astros swung and missed only eight times at Paxton’s 95 pitches and they fouled away 26 total pitches, including 14 with two strikes. Those 14 two-strike foul balls were the fifth most in his career. The Astros were on everything.

Yesterday Paxton revealed he was tipping his pitches in Houston. Specifically, there was a tell that allowed runners at second base to pick up his curveball, which they then relayed to the batter. Paxton said special assistant Carlos Beltran picked up on it and showed him the video when the team returned to New York. Generally speaking, pitchers don’t talk about tipping pitches until they correct it, so Paxton must believe he’s corrected it.

“I did find out I was tipping my pitches when there were guys at second base, so they knew what was coming,” Paxton said to Zach Braziller over the weekend. “They were fouling off some pretty good pitches, taking some pretty good pitches. There were stealing some signs. So that’s didn’t help … (They) could see if I was going soft or hard.”

Boone confirmed the Yankees suspected something was up during Paxton’s start — “We realized there was probably something going on from behind, that guys could potentially pick up with him here and there,” Boone said — but added this has not been an ongoing problem, and that Paxton’s issues in Houston went beyond tipping pitches. His stuff wasn’t crisp and his command was not good.

“I just don’t think he was real sharp in his last start,” Boone said. “Stuff wasn’t his electric stuff that we’ve seen at times, and just a little bit off with his command. Again, going back to a number of hitters that got to be really long counts for him, where he’s having a hard time putting away guys and part of that’s a credit to the Astros hitters, who made it tough on him. It really extended his outing and made him work really hard even when he was getting outs.”

Despite all the traffic on the bases, Paxton faced only five batters with a runner at second base during his start in Houston. Here’s what those five batters did:

  • George Springer: Four-pitch 6-4-3 double play in the second.
  • Yuli Gurriel: Six-pitch walk in the third.
  • Tyler White: Nine-pitch strikeout in the third.
  • Aledmys Diaz: Runner thrown out at second on second pitch of the at-bat to end the third.
  • George Springer: Seven-pitch strikeout in the fourth.

Some long counts there, for sure, but if Paxton was truly tipping pitches to the runner at second base, it didn’t hurt a whole lot beyond the pitch count. Paxton faced five batters with a runner on second, one at-bat was cut short by baserunning buffoonery, and only one of the other four batters reached base. That’s all.

Paxton faced 17 batters without a runner at runner at second base Wednesday — there were quite a few first-and-third situations that avoided a runner at second — and ten of the 17 reached base. Ten of 17! Good gravy. That doesn’t mean tipping pitches to the runner at second wasn’t a problem that needed to be addressed, but focusing on the pitch-tipping is missing the forest for the trees. There was more going on in Houston.

Three starts into the season, the numbers on Paxton’s stuff are right where they were the last few years. There hasn’t been a decline in velocity or spin or swing-and-miss-ability. The numbers quick:

Fastball Curveball Cutter
% Velo Spin Whiffs % Velo Spin Whiffs % Velo Spin Whiffs
2017 65.5 95.5 2,263 23.2 21.4 80.4 2,022 41.0 10.7 88.8 2,102 37.3
2018 63.6 95.4 2,283 25.6 21.5 81.1 1,949 39.9 14.4 89.0 2,107 37.1
2019 65.4 95.0 2,292 23.1 14.7 80.5 1,988 33.3 19.9 87.9 2,127 40.9

It’s reasonable to expect Paxton to add a little velocity as the weather warms up, so everything is right where it needs to be in mid-April, and that’s good. A sudden drop in spin rate or whiff rate would be worrisome. Paxton should maybe throw a few more curveballs going forward, though that’s an easy fix, and his curveball usage rate isn’t that much lower than usual. It could be back to normal quick.

Watching his last two starts, it seemed to me Paxton’s command was the biggest issue, not stuff and tipping pitches to the runner at second base. He fell behind in the count a little too often, was over the heart of the plate a little too often, and maybe a little too predictable as well. Paxton has always thrown a ton of fastballs because his fastball is so good. A few more curveballs and cutters to change the scouting report a bit wouldn’t be a terrible idea.

Tipping pitches to the runner at second base may have been an issue in Houston. It does not appear it was the problem, however, just given how few runners were actually at second base. This early in the season, everything gets magnified, and Paxton’s three starts have been uneven overall. As long as the stuff is fine and he’s healthy — as far as we know, both of those things are true — it’ll likely be only a matter of time until Paxton gets on track. Tipping pitches to the runner at second? That was only a small part of the problem in Houston.

“(Beltran) showed me some video (and said), ‘Look at these takes, look at these swings. They wouldn’t be making these swings or these takes if they didn’t know what was coming,’” Paxton said to Braziller. “That being said, I also didn’t throw the ball very well. I was over the middle of the plate too much, even when there were guys not on second base. So I need to be better as well.”

Yankeemetrics: Crash Landing in Houston (April 8-10)

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(Getty)

April 8: Bullpen Bummer
The Yankees road trip continued to Houston and the series began with a familiar story: another wasted another gem by Masahiro Tanaka as the much-hyped bullpen blew a late lead and instead the Yankees end up with a painful loss.

Since joining the Astros in late-summer 2017 — and prior to Monday — Justin Verlander had dominated the Yankees, allowing just two runs in 30 2/3 IP (0.59 ERA). Somehow the Yankees finally made him look human, scoring three runs in six innings off him. Aaron Judge had two hits — including an opposite-field laser shot into the rightfield seats — and a walk; entering this series, Judge was 0-for-13 with seven strikeouts against Verlander, his worst 0-fer vs any pitcher.

Tanaka was stellar in holding the Astros to one run on three hits in six innings. His 1.47 ERA is easily the best of his MLB career through this first three starts. It’s also a near-360 reversal from his notable early-season struggles in recent years, when he had a 5.19 ERA last year and a 8.36 ERA in 2017 after three turns.

Adam Ottavino allowed the go-ahead run after issuing a one-out walk and consecutive singles by Michael Brantley and Carlos Correa, the latter a dribbler towards first base that went 22 feet and had an exit velocity of 28.9 mph. Prior to that meltdown, Ottavino had not allowed a hit or run in his first five appearances of the season.

(USA Today)

April 9: Bullpen Bummer II
Another day, another game, another brutal and crushing loss thanks another bullpen implosion.

Luke Voit staked the Yankees to an early 1-0 lead with a solo homer to dead-center field. We know Voit has big muscles, and one good use for those big muscles is destroying baseballs to the farthest reaches of the park, notably deep center field. Since the start of last season (through Tuesday), 384 players had hit at least 40 balls to center; Voit’s 1.065 slugging percentage on batted balls to center ranked first in that group.

On Tuesday it was Jonathan Holder and Chad Green’s turn to play the starring roles in the late-inning collapse. Holder allowed the game-tying run in the seventh on back-to-back doubles by Alex Bregman and Michael Brantley.

Bregman’s double was the result of a bad defensive misplay and awkward dive by Clint Frazier. Per Statcast tracking, the ball had a catch probability of 95 percent. (Catch probability is defined as the likelihood that a batted ball to the outfield will be caught, based on four data points: 1. How far did the fielder have to go? 2. How much time did he have to get there? 3. What direction did he need to go in? 4. Was proximity to the wall a factor?)

Through Tuesday, Frazier had three batted balls hit to him with a catch probability of less than 99 percent (routine play) but greater than 50 percent (50/50 play). He missed the catch on all three of those defensive plays.

Green took the loss, charged with the three runs allowed in eighth. It was the first appearance of his career that he gave up at least three runs and got fewer than three outs.

Knowing that it’s still super-early into the season and that the following stats get the small-sample-size warning, here are some numbers to chew on (through Tuesday’s games):

  • Three blown saves and four bullpen losses were both tied for the MLB lead
  • Two losses (Monday and Tuesday) when leading at the end of the sixth inning; only Cubs and Rockies had more (3). Yankees last year had only five such losses, tied for fewest in MLB.
  • Four losses when tied at the end of the seventh inning, the most in MLB this season. Yankees had only seven last year.
(Getty)

April 10: Paxton Pummeled
At least there was no lead for the bullpen to blow on Wednesday night. That’s about the only “positive” thing you can say about the terrible 8-6 loss they suffered as the road trip came to a depressing end in Houston, capping the first-ever series sweep by the Astros over the Yankees. Is this a good time to mention that there are still 150 games left in the season?

The Yankees and its fans were feeling pretty good three pitches into the game when Gardy went Yardy for his 15th career leadoff homer but those good feelings were quickly erased when James Paxton coughed up a solo homer to Jose Altuve and an RBI triple by Yuli Gurriel in the bottom of the frame. Paxton dominated the Astros in four starts last year (4-0, 2.05 ERA) and had a 1.89 ERA in eight starts against them from 2017-18, but this game was a complete disaster:

James Paxton vs Astros
IP Runs HR Batters Faces
2019 4 5 2 21
2018 26.1 6 1 105

Despite Paxton’s track record of success against the Astros, this loss was hardly surprising based on more recent team trends:

  • The Yankees fell to 4-6 when scoring first this season. Last year they had the second-best record when scoring first, winning 81 percent of those games. On average, teams that score first go on to win 66 percent of the time.
  • This was the 11th time in 12 games this season that the Yankees held a lead … and they are 5-6 in those games. Last year they had a .797 win percentage in such games. The only other teams this season with a below-.500 record when leading at any point in the game are the Red Sox (3-6) and Royals (2-7).
  • Eight of their 12 games have been decided by two runs or fewer, and they are 2-6 in those games, one of the five worst marks in MLB. Last year the Yankees had a .561 win percentage in those games, seventh-best in the majors.

The Yankees put their rally caps on in the eighth inning and mounted a gutsy near-comeback to pull within a run. But Gary Sanchez, inserted in the lineup to pinch hit for Tyler Wade with two outs and a man on third, struck out to end the inning. In a very small sample, El Gary has been … umm … not good when coming to the plate cold off the bench:

Yankeemetrics: Bronx Bombers invade Baltimore (April 4-7)

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(AP)

April 4: Happy Gleyber Day
The Yankees kicked off their first road trip of the season in Baltimore with a 8-4 win (crazy, eh?), as Gleyber Torres produced a career-best performance that re-wrote the franchise record books.

A happy ending could hardly have been predicted after a horrible first inning in which James Paxton gave up a leadoff homer, two walks, an RBI single, a run-scoring balk and a run-scoring wild pitch, before finally striking out the final two batters to end the inning. 3-0 hole, 24 outs to go … no problem, right?

Yankees #FightingSpirit made its first appearance of the season as they rallied from that three-run deficit to get a much-needed victory. Last year the team won only one game — at Citi Field against the Mets on June 9 — when trailing by at least three runs at the end of the first frame.

Torres started his monster game with a solo homer in the third inning, the 25th of his career. At age 22 and 112 days old, he became the third-youngest Yankee to reach that milestone, behind only Joe DiMaggio and Mickey Mantle.

But he was just getting warmed up …

Torres came to the plate in the sixth inning with the Yankees trailing 4-2 and two men on base, and did what he does best — smash a three-run dinger put the Yankees ahead for good. If there is such thing as a clutch gene, Torres might have it, and the numbers in “high leverage” pressure situations give us some data to back it up.

Following that homer, Torres had a .444/.479/.867 line with six homers and 31 RBI in 49 high-leverage plate appearances. That seems … good? Since the start of last year, 232 players (as of Friday) had at least 40 high-leverage plate appearances. Here’s where Torres’ numbers rank among those 232:

BA OBP SLG HR RBI wOBA wRC+
Torres .444 .479 .867 6 31 .560 266
MLB Rank 1st 11th 1st 2nd 1st 1st 1st

His final boxscore stats of four hits (2 homers, 1 double, 1 single) and four RBI put him in the company of a couple pinstriped legends.

  • He is the second Yankee shortstop with at least four hits, including two or more homers, in a game on the road, joining Derek Jeter on May 8, 2011 at Texas.
  • It was his third career multi-homer game; the only Yankee with more before age 23 was Joe DiMaggio (8!)
  • He is the second-youngest Yankee to produce at least 11 total bases and drive in four-or-more runs in a game, behind only a 21-year-old DiMaggio (June 24, 1936).
(UPI)

April 6: Red Thunder is Rolling
The Yankees overcame a messy mix of bad baserunning, bad defense and bad bullpen management to put together their first win streak of the season. (Not)Shockingly, dingers saved the day in their 6-4 win on Saturday.

The most glaring wasted opportunity came in the sixth inning when the Yankees had the bases loaded with no outs … and scored zero runs. In that situation, based on recent historical numbers, a team is expected to score a run 86.1 percent of the time and score an average 2.3 runs after loading the bases with no outs.

Aaron Judge kept the Yankees in the game with his bat, socking two dingers for his eighth career multi-homer game. Did you forget that he loves to smash baseballs vs this team? Four of those eight two-homer games have come against the Orioles. They were also his 84th and 85th career homers, in his 302nd career game; the only player in MLB history to reach 85 homers quicker than Judge was Ryan Howard (283 games).

After the O’s rallied to take a 4-3 lead in the bottom of the seventh, Clint Frazier put on the hero’s cape and saved the day with a ginormous three-run blast in the top of the eighth. Let’s celebrate with this #FunFact:

#TooManyHomers
The Yankees finally pushed above the .500 mark with a dinger-happy 15-3 win to sweep the Orioles in Baltimore. It was the first time since 2003 (at Toronto) that the Yankees swept their first road series of the season (h/t @CharlieRGa). And the win extended their win streak in Baltimore to eight games, their longest road win streak against the O’s since the franchise moved to the Charm City in 1954. But we’re burying the lead here …

The Bronx Bombers lived up to their nickname and put on a fun power show , slugging seven homers, one shy of the team record. Overall, its the fifth time they’ve gone deep at least seven times in a game and the first time since July 31, 2007 vs White Sox at Yankee Stadium. The last time they hit seven-or-more homers in a road game was May 30, 1961 against the Red Sox at Fenway Park. The players with dingers that day: Mickey Mantle (2), Roger Maris (2), Yogi Berra and Bill Skowron (2).

Gleyber Torres got the home run derby started with a solo blast in the first inning to give the Yankees a 1-0 lead. More than half (14) of his 27 career homers have either tied the game or put the Yankees ahead. That’s good, I think.

Clint Frazier was the next guy to join the home run party in the second inning, and then capped off his career-best four-hit day with a ninth-inning shot for his first career multi-homer game. Congrats Clint, you get our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series: The last Yankee outfielder under age-25 with at least four hits, including two homers, in a game was Mickey Mantle on May 18, 1956 vs White Sox.

And we keep burying the lead …

(AP)

Gary Sanchez wins our Gold Star of the game thanks to his historic three-homer, six-RBI effort. This one deserves a bullet-point recap:

  • Youngest Yankee (26 years old) with at least three homers in a game since Bobby Murcer (24 years old) did it on June 24, 1970.
  • First Yankee with at least three homers in a game vs the Orioles since they moved to Baltimore in 1954. The only Yankees to homer three times in a game vs the Orioles/Browns franchise came back when they were known as the St. Louis Browns: Bill Dickey (July 26, 1939) and Joe DiMaggio (June 13, 1937).
  • Third player in Yankees history to hit six homers this early into the season (9 team games), joining Alex Rodriguez (2007) and Graig Nettles (1974).
  • Youngest player in franchise history with three homers and six-or-more RBI in a game on the road. The only player younger than Sanchez to do this in home pinstripes was Ben Chapman (23 years old) on July 9, 1932 vs the Tigers.

And our signature #FunFact of the game — six of his eight total hits this season have gone into the seats for souvenirs:

Yankeemetrics: Orioles Deja Vu (March 28-31)

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(New York Times)

March 28: The Legend of Luke
One down, 161 to go. For the second year in a row, the Yankees kicked off their schedule with a win, 7-2 over the Orioles. It marked the first time in more than a decade they’ve had back-to-back season-opening victories, since winning four in a row from 2005-08. The seven runs scored were their most in a win on Opening Day since 2007 when they beat the Rays 9-5.

Luke Voit got the party started early with a three-run first-inning dinger, crushing an 87 mph hanging slider 428 feet into the centerfield seats. Last year he struggled to drive breaking pitches, posting an average exit velocity of just 88 mph while whiffing on 40 percent on those offerings. He saw 217 curves and sliders in 2018, and cranked just one of them out of the park.

Thursday’s home run gave him 15 homers in his first 40 regular-season games with the Yankees — a 162-game pace of 61 homers. He added another RBI when was plunked with the bases loaded in the fifth. #FunFact alert! Voit is the third Yankee cleanup hitter with at least four RBI on Opening Day, joining Alex Rodriguez (2006) and Yogi Berra (1956).

Masahiro Tanaka, making his fourth career Opening Day start (the most by a Japanese-born pitcher), was solid and efficient in his 83-pitch outing, allowing two runs (one earned) while striking out five and walking none in 5 2/3 innings.

He earned our Obscure Yankeemetric of the game for that effort, becoming one of three Yankee Opening Day starters to give up no more than one earned run with at least five strikeouts and no walks. The others: Catfish Hunter (1977) and Mel Stottlemyre (1968).

(Newsday)

March 30: Too little, too late
There will be no perfect season in the Bronx. Bummer. Cold bats and sloppy defense are a good recipe for a loss, and the Yankees followed that script to near perfection on Saturday afternoon in 5-3 defeat.

Despite putting 16 runners on base, the Yankees scored only three runs. As frustrating as the team’s situational hitting was last year, they produced that poor combo — more than 15 baserunners and three or fewer runs in a game just once (5-3 loss to Braves on July 2).

The newcomers provided most of the highlights as DJ LeMahieu got his first hit and RBI as a Yankee, Troy Tulowitzki smoked his first home run in pinstripes and James Paxton had a strong debut on the mound.

Paxton showed off his impressive fastball in holding the Orioles to two runs (one earned) on four hits with five punchouts in 5 2/3 innings. He kept the pitch away from the heart of the zone, getting a bunch of called strikes on the edges with the four-seamer while also elevating his heater for swinging strikes.

(source: Statcast)

Last year Paxton ranked ninth among starters (min. 500 pitches) with a 25.6 percent swing-and-miss rate on his four-seam fastball — and he matched that number on Saturday as the Orioles swung at 32 of his four-seamers and whiffed eight times (25.0%).

Tulowitzki’s longball was a rare 358-foot opposite field solo shot in the ninth inning. Tulo has plenty of pop — he is one of seven players in MLB history with at least 200 homers as a shortstop — but most of that has been pull-side power in recent years: 45 of his 48 homers from 2015-17 went to left field.

(AP)

March 31: Rinse, repeat, RISPFail
With a chance to salvage a series win against the Orioles on Sunday afternoon, the Yankees again failed miserably in clutch situations and suffered another disappointing loss, 7-5. This is the second straight season they dropped an early-season series at the Stadium against the Orioles.

Over the last two seasons, they are 2-5 vs the Orioles in April and 11-4 vs them in May thru September. The Yankees are also 5-7 at home vs the Orioles since the start of last season, the only team they have faced at least five times and have a losing record against in the Bronx.

In losing the final two games, the Yankees went 5-for-21 with runners in scoring position and stranded a combined 25 baserunners (11 on Saturday and 14 on Sunday). It was their most in a two-game span since June 12-13, 2017 when the also left 25 guys on base in the first two games of a series against the Angels. They actually split those two contests, so to find the last time the Yankees stranded 25-plus men in a two-game stretch and lost both games, you have to go back nearly three years to April 15-16, 2016 against the Mariners. Gross.

One player who has avoided the RISP-fail plague to start the season is DJ LeMahieu, who had two hits and an RBI for the second straight day. That effort earned him our Obscure Yankeemetric of the game, becoming part of an eclectic group of six players to have two-plus hits and at least one RBI in each of their first two games with the Yankees. The other five legendary names: John Olerud (2004), Don Slaught (1988), Hector Lopez (1959), Joe DiMaggio (1936) and Pat Collins (1926).

Giving up three homers to the O’s didn’t help the winning cause, either, as J.A. Happ was tagged for two of those longballs and Stephen Tarpley coughed up his first career homer as a major-leaguer. In 69 2/3 innings with the Yankees (including playoffs), Happ has given up 13 homers, or a rate of 1.68 per nine innings pitched. If he posted that over an entire season, it would be the second-highest homer rate by a Yankee pitcher that qualified for the ERA title (highest is 1.77 by Masahiro Tanaka in 2017).

The Same But Different: Tanaka and Paxton Debut Against Orioles

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Tanaka. (Presswire)

At first glance, Masahiro Tanaka and James Paxton have little in common beyond their chosen profession and the team for which they play. Tanaka is Japanese; Paxton is Canadian. Tanaka is right-handed; Paxton is left-handed. Tanaka’s signature pitch is his splitter…or slider; Paxton’s is his fastball. But if we dig a touch deeper, they do have a similarity in careers and expectations.

Tanaka and Paxton are highly talented who don’t necessarily turn in big innings totals, which perhaps warps perceptions about their true talent levels or value to the teams for which they’ve pitched. Additionally, both carry big expectations for 2019, especially with Luis Severino sidelined with shoulder troubles. Paxton carries the additional weight of expectation after being acquired for then top pitching prospect Justus Sheffield. Both also made their debuts this past week against the Baltimore Orioles. Let’s see if they, despite different handedness and different styles had more similarities in their approaches or more differences.

Tanaka relied on a three pitch deployment of four-seamers (24), sliders (23), and splitters (25) to attack the Orioles, tossing 5.2 innings of two run ball (1 earned). He allowed six hits, no walks, and struck out five batters. For the record, Brooks also classified nine curveballs and two sinkers among his Thursday arsenal. Paxton likewise threw 5.2 innings, allowing two runs (one earned), four hits, and one walk while striking out six. His pitch mix was more limited: 59 four seamers, 18 cutters, and 15 knuckle curves. 

As pitchers ought to do, each went over 70% strikes with his fastball to set up the other pitches. Paxton, though, got nine whiffs on his fastball alone; Tanaka only had ten for his entire start. In Tanaka’s favor, he got three whiffs on his breaking ball–slider–whereas Paxton had just one on his knuckle curve. These results show themselves in each pitcher’s approach to location. First Tanaka, then Paxton:

BrooksBaseball.net
BrooksBaseball.net

While Tanaka stayed mostly down in the zone and to his arm side–inside on righties, outside on lefties–Paxton was more apt to scatter his pitches throughout the zone. Considering the overall stuff of each pitcher, this makes a lot of sense. Tanaka’s fastball averaged around 91-92 per Brooks and Paxton’s averaged a touch over 95. That extra three MPH means Paxton can work up in the zone and at both corners more easily than Tanaka can.

Overall, Tanaka and Paxton faced seven hitters in common and wound up with the same innings and runs totals, while showing strikeout stuff and good control. On most days–like Thursday–Paxton’s line on Saturday would be enough to earn a win. Sadly, that didn’t happen for him, but he pitched well in his debut nonetheless. Despite their differences in approaches and stuff, Paxton and Tanaka turned in similar showings in their season debuts and we should be pleased with both. Hopefully, these starts are a sign of things to come, a jumping off point for even better performances down the road.

Trends to Watch as James Paxton Makes His Yankee Debut

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(Presswire)

When James Paxton takes the mound today for the Yankees’ second game of the season against the Orioles, he will do so as the marquee acquisition of the 2018 offseason. Paxton, who was acquired early in the offseason, almost became an afterthought following an often frustrating offseason despite his top-of-the-rotation talent. The reality, though, is that he is the biggest upgrade over the 2018 team: he boasts a 3.52 ERA (117 ERA+) from 2016-18 with excellent peripherals (10+ K/9, 2 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9) and overpowering stuff as a lefty.

The new Yankee has shown ace-like capability on the mound in Seattle; as both Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs and Zach Kram of The Ringer noted in November, Big Maple ranks near the top of the league in nearly every important statistical category on a per usage basis. The Yankees obviously expect more of the same from him, and perhaps even a bit more: despite his dominance, injuries have prevented Paxton from truly entering the ace conversation.

As Paxton prepares to make his Yankee debut, there are several areas on which every fan should keep their eye. Most all of them in some way are based on the tension between the Yanks’ anti-fastball approach and Paxton’s approach, and I’m really excited to see the dynamic play out. Let’s break this one down.

Fastball Usage

 The Yankees have a clear anti-fastball pitching philosophy, preferring instead for their pitchers to increasingly rely on off-speed stuff with movement instead of an over-reliance on fastballs. We’ve covered this extensively at RAB, and it’s something for which the Yankees are generally known – Sonny Gray even complained about it in an interview with The Athletic (subs req’d) last month.

Last year’s mid-season acquisitions of J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn, two pitchers who use their fastball at a higher percentage than nearly anyone else, bucked the trend, but it was reasonable to wonder if that’s just because they were the best available options amid a title pursuit. But the offseason acquisition of Paxton means that the last three pitchers the Yankees have brought on board all love to throw their fastball. Here are the five pitchers who most relied on their fastball in the 2018 season:

  1. Lance Lynn: 88.9%
  2. James Paxton: 81.5%
  3. David Price: 74.9%
  4. Jon Lester: 74.8%
  5. J.A. Happ: 73.3%

It will be really interesting to see how this dynamic plays out throughout 2019. As Mike noted in his reaction to the Paxton trade, the Yankees let both Happ and Lynn throw tons of fastballs after the deadline, so it’s no guarantee that they tinker with Paxton. Nevertheless, I suspect we’ll see Paxton rely more on his offspeed stuff than he ever did with Seattle. The Yanks have Paxton for at least the next two years and I don’t think they’re moving away from their anti-fastball approach: Lynn, Happ and Paxton have simply been the best available pitchers.

In any case, keep an eye out for Paxton’s fastball usage. As we’ll get into in the following sections, his fastball is a true weapon, and how he and the Yankees approach this year will be fascinating. It will offer an interesting insight into both the Yankees’ own internal philosophy, Paxton’s flexibility, and if he does make a change, whether it helps him take that next step to true acehood.

Aggressiveness

If they do make a change, it will also be interesting to see how relying more on offspeed pitches will impact Paxton’s approach – something that means a lot to him.

Paxton told The New York Times that while he isn’t big on advanced analytics, he has created a stat of his own to measure his success: the percentage of at-bats in which, after three pitches, the at-bat is already completed or Paxton leads with a 1-2 count. He calls it A3P – after three pitches – and it is a neat view into Paxton’s approach. He clearly values aggression and getting ahead in the counts, which might partially explain his reliance on the fastball.

There is a good reason for this, as controlling the count obviously gives the pitcher an advantage. Batters hit only .200/.235/.289 in 0-1 counts, .155/.194/.226 when it’s 1-2 counts and 127/.150/.183 in 0-2 counts against Paxton – and while every pitcher, obviously, will perform best in pitchers’ counts, Paxton becomes nearly unhittable even when just a strike ahead.

It sounds simple enough because it is. Aggression is something that every pitcher preaches – as do the Yankees themselves – but a year and a half of watching Sonny Gray tentatively approach hitters and nibble at the corners should prove that it’s not quite as easy as it sounds.

Relying more on off-speed stuff might draw out at-bats by putting Paxton behind in the count, or it might not matter at all. For today, at least, Paxton should have no problems: The Orioles are one of the league’s free-swinging teams and we should expect Paxton to attack their AAA lineup with confidence. Beyond his first start, though, how Paxton attacks the zone will be something to watch in 2019, and how effective he is at staying ahead will be indicative of his success.

Swing and Misses

Missing bats is the name of the game for pitchers: stop the batter from making contact and you’ve done your job. Paxton is one of the league’s best at missing bats, and that’s especially exciting given his status as a flame-throwing lefty. His stuff is simply nasty – especially the fastball we just talked about. Again, to the leaderboard, this time for whiffs-per-swing on fastballs:

  1. Jacob deGrom: 17.3%
  2. Justin Verlander: 15.8%
  3. Max Scherzer: 15.4%
  4. Gerrit Cole: 15.3%
  5. James Paxton: 13.7%
    MLB Average: 9.6% 

That’s some elite company, and it alone suggests that Paxton has legitimate ace upside. Moreover, Paxton is one of only six pitchers in the last decade to log at least 150 innings as a lefty and strike out 30% or more of the batters he faced. Paxton, in addition to missing bats, limits walks, allowing only 7% (2 per 9 innings pitched) of the batters he’s faced in his career to take a free bag. Couple that with a career 25.7% (10+ per 9 innings) strikeout rate, and you’ve got yourself a pitcher who can be a real difference-maker atop the Yankee rotation.

Again, it will be fascinating to see how these trends play out in 2019, especially if the Yanks and Paxton tinker with his approach. In any event, Paxton is one of baseball’s elite talents when it comes to making batters miss, and it’s worth paying close attention to in 2019 – especially if he mixes in more offspeed stuff.

Fly Ball Percentage

Finally, Paxton has historically limited home runs, allowing less than one per 9 in his career. (When you look at it this way, Paxton makes everyone swing and miss, limits walks, and never gives up home runs. How is he not a bigger story?) He did, of course, call Safeco Field T-Mobile Park home for his career until now, and Seattle is a known pitcher-friendly park. Yankee Stadium is not that.

Derek wrote an insightful piece exploring Paxton’s home run spike in 2018 (it climbed to 1.29 per 9) that you should read, but I wanted to pull out a few of the more interesting bits: turns out Paxton gave up a lot more fly balls (41%) than he did in 2017 (32.7%), largely a function of elevating his fastball. That explains at least some of the increase in homers, but it’s also possible that 2017, where he was unhittable, was a fluke. Time will tell, as they say.

I think it’s fair to expect Paxton to surrender more home runs in New York than he did in Seattle overall, but there are ways to mitigate even the Yankee Stadium impact: Paxton can continue to miss bats and keep the ball on the ground. It’s also worth noting that if the Yankees turn him away from his fastball, that might mean reduced elevation and fewer home runs.

****

I have an extremely good feeling about the 2019 Yankees, and James Paxton is a big reason why. We always hear that the Yankees “need another pitcher,” even though that’s often not true, but the addition of Paxton is probably the Yankees most exciting starting pitching acquisition in some time. There is a lot to watch this year, especially related to Paxton’s fastball usage and how that impacts some of the key areas that have made him so effective. If he lives up to expectations or improves – and, if he’s healthy, I see no reason why he won’t remain one of the best in the game – James Paxton will play a big role in what has the potential to be a very big year in the Bronx.

Five bold predictions for the 2019 Yankees

by

(Presswire)

In less than 28 hours the Yankees will open the 2019 regular season at home against the Orioles. Spring Training really flew by this year even though it seemed like someone got hurt every other day. Thank goodness it’s over, both Spring Training and an offseason that was frustrating for fans (of all teams) more often than not.

Since Opening Day is tomorrow, it’s time for what has become my annual bold predictions post. Two years ago I went 7-for-10 and that told me I didn’t go bold enough. I trimmed it to five bold predictions last year and went 0-for-5. That’s more like it. Fewer predictions with a greater emphasis on bold. That’s the point, right?

Well, anyway, here are my five hopefully bold enough predictions for the 2019 Yankees, listed in no particular order. We’ll come back and see how I did in a few months.

Judge and Stanton will combine for 116 home runs

The Yankees set several home run records last season, mostly notably the single-season record with 267 homers, but the whole “first team to get 20 homers from every lineup spot” thing is my favorite record. That is insane. That deep attack is how the Yankees were able to set the single-season homer record despite losing Aaron Judge to a wrist injury for seven weeks and others underperforming.

Breaking the home run record again this season is a very possible. It’ll take good health, something the Yankees don’t have right now, but it is possible. My focus is another home run record though. I’m predicting Judge and Giancarlo Stanton will combine for 116 homers, the most ever by two teammates in history. Only five sets of teammates have ever combined for as many as 100 homers in a season.

  1. 1961 Yankees (115): Roger Maris (61) and Mickey Mantle (54)
  2. 2001 Giants (110): Barry Bonds (73) and Rich Aurilia (37)
  3. 1927 Yankees (107): Babe Ruth (60) and Lou Gehrig (47)
  4. 1998 Cardinals (101): Mark McGwire (70) and Ray Lankford (31)
  5. 2002 Rangers (100): Alex Rodriguez (57) and Rafael Palmeiro (43)

Judge and Stanton combined to hit 65 home runs last season, so, even as good as they are, they only got a little more than halfway to my boldly predicted total of 116. Here’s the thing though: Judge and Stanton combined to hit 111 home runs in 2017. Not as teammates, of course, but they combined for 111 homers. Judge hit a rookie record 52 homers and Stanton hit an MLB best 59 homers with Miami.

These two have already come pretty close to 116 homers! Stanton will play the entire 2019 season at 29 and Judge will turn 27 in a few weeks, so they’re both very much in the primes of their careers. Also, Stanton will presumably be more comfortable in year two in New York, and he gets to play in Yankee Stadium. I mean, the guy hit 59 homers while playing his home games in spacious Marlins Park. Why can’t he hit 60-65 in a friendlier ballpark in the Bronx?

Judge and Stanton combining for 116 homers means one of them will almost certainly have to hit at least 62 homers, which would pass Maris and set a new American League single-season home run record. I suppose they could split it right down the middle and hit 58 each. The more likely scenario is one has a historic record-breaking season while the other merely has a monster MVP caliber season. It could happen!

Paxton will receive the most Cy Young points by a Yankee since Clemens

The last Yankee to win the Cy Young award is Roger Clemens in 2001. He went 20-1 in his first 30 starts that year, and that created a Cy Young narrative that was more or less unbreakable. Going 20-1 (he finished 20-3) was hard to ignore even though new Yankees teammate Mike Mussina (3.15 ERA and +7.1 WAR) had an objectively better season than Clemens (3.51 ERA and +5.7 WAR).

Since 2001, eleven different players have combined for 16 instances of a Yankee receiving Cy Young votes. Most notably, Mariano Rivera was the runner-up to Bartolo Colon in 2005 and Chien-Ming Wang was the runner-up to Johan Santana in 2006. The Cy Young ballot is five names deep and a first place vote equals five points, a second place vote equals four points, all the way on down to one point for a fifth place vote. The most points wins.

The most Cy Young points tallied by a Yankee since Clemens was not Luis Severino two years ago. It was CC Sabathia in 2010. He threw 237.2 innings with a 3.18 ERA and +6.4 WAR that season, and finished third in the Cy Young voting behind Felix Hernandez and David Price. Here are the top Cy Young point totals among Yankees since Clemens:

  1. 2010 CC Sabathia: 102 points
  2. 2017 Luis Severino: 73 points
  3. 2005 Mariano Rivera: 68 points
  4. 2011 CC Sabathia: 63 points
  5. 2006 Chien-Ming Wang: 51 points
  6. 2004 Mariano Rivera: 27 points
  7. Ten instances with 13 or fewer points

For reference, American League Cy Young winners have averaged 166.4 voting points over the last ten years. (The National League average is a bit higher because Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and the late Roy Halladay skewed it with their overwhelming greatness.)

With all due to respect to Masahiro Tanaka, who is forever cool with me, James Paxton is the Yankees’ best chance at Cy Young votes this year given Severino’s injury. Paxton has flashed ace ability in the past — at one point last May he struck out 16 and threw a no-hitter in back-to-back starts — but he hasn’t had that complete, fully healthy ace season yet. Last year he threw 160.1 innings with a 3.76 ERA. The year before it was 136 innings with a 2.98 ERA.

Blake Snell lowered the Cy Young threshold last year by throwing only 180.2 innings, the fewest ever by a Cy Young winner in a non-strike season. Of course, Snell also became the first American League starter with a sub-2.00 ERA since peak Pedro Martinez, so those 180.2 innings were super high-quality. Point is though, winning the Cy Young with only 180 or so innings is no longer impossible. You just need to be really, really good.

The bold prediction here is Paxton will not only stay healthy and get to 180 innings or thereabouts, but that he’ll also perform as well as 2017 on a rate basis. Even with the move from Safeco Field T-Mobile Park into Yankee Stadium. That means a 3.00 ERA or so, a FIP about a half-a-run lower, a strikeout rate approaching 30%, and nearly five strikeouts for every one walk. Add in the “new guy carrying to the Yankees to the postseason” narrative, and there you go. Even if he doesn’t win the award, Paxton will rake in Cy Young points.

Andujar will finish the year as an above-average defender

Perhaps my boldest prediction ever. I’m a longtime Andujar believer — what’s a good fan club name, the FANdujars? — and yes, I know he was atrocious defensively last season. Defensive Runs Saved data goes back to 2003 and includes over 31,000 individual player seasons. Last year Andujar finished with the 25th worst rating (-25 runs) in DRS history, sandwiched right between 2004 Bernie Williams (-26 runs) and 2007 Derek Jeter (-24 runs). Eek.

Like I said though, I am an Andujar believer, and I’m boldly buying into all the defensive work he did over the winter and in Spring Training, as well as a year’s worth of MLB experience. Being a rookie in the big leagues isn’t easy, especially not in New York with a Yankees team that is in the race. It’s pretty remarkable Andujar and Gleyber Torres were as productive as they were last season. There’s a lot to absorb during that first year in the show.

Andujar (and Torres) knows what to expect now, and he’s a very hard worker who’s spent a lot of time working on his defense the last five months. A lot. I expect all that work to pay off this summer. We’re going to see more plays like this …

… and fewer missed dives and double-clutches and short-hopped throws. Will Andujar be Adrian Beltre? Maybe! But no, probably not. I’m going with above-average, and, just to be completely upfront about this, I am totally claiming victory here if Andujar finishes the season at, like, +0.1 UZR with the other defensive metrics in the negative. One stat in plus territory, even by a tiny little bit, works for me.

Ottavino will lead the Yankees in saves

On paper, Adam Ottavino is what, fourth on the closer depth chart? Aroldis Chapman will again go into the season as the ninth inning guy, as he should, and my hunch is Zack Britton is next in line for save opportunities over Dellin Betances whenever Chapman needs a day. Either way, it’s Britton and Betances behind Chapman in either order, which means Ottavino is fourth at best. Maybe he’s even behind Chad Green? Could be.

Even at fourth on the closer depth chart, you don’t have to try real hard to envision Ottavino getting save chances at some point. I’m worried this bold prediction isn’t all that bold. Betances is already hurt, and while it’s not expected to be a long-term injury, you never really know with shoulders. He might not be the same dominant Dellin when he returns. That means Ottavino would have one fewer player standing in his way for save chances.

I didn’t love the decision to re-sign Zack Britton — like the rest of the Yankees’ free agent activity, it was fine and nothing more — because his strikeouts have gone down and his walks have gone up, and hitters aren’t chasing out of the zone nearly as much as they did a few years ago. For a 31-year-old reliever who’s missed a bunch of time with injuries the last two years, expecting Britton to be good rather than great isn’t crazy. I mean, look at this:

As for Chapman, he looked sneaky crummy this spring, with a fastball that sat mostly 94-96 mph rather than 97-98 mph. I know it’s only Spring Training, believe me, but Chapman’s fastball averaged 99.1 mph last March. For a guy who’s already losing velocity, seeing mid-90s rather than upper-90s this spring was a little worrisome. Hopefully he will regain those last few miles-an-hour as the weather warms up and the ninth inning adrenaline flows.

Even then, Chapman spent about a month on the disabled list in 2017 (shoulder) and 2018 (knee), and had to be demoted out of the closer’s role each year. It wouldn’t be the most surprisingly thing in the world if it were to happen again. Between Betances already being hurt and Britton and Chapman showing signs of decline, it sure seems like Ottavino is closer to save chances than it may appear given the other names in the bullpen.

If Ottavino leads the Yankees in saves — ahem, when he leads the Yankees in saves — my guess is he’ll do so with a low total like 18 saves. Ottavino has 18 saves, Chapman has 17 saves, Britton has 14 saves, something like that. It won’t be Ottavino with 42 saves and the runner-up with five saves or something like that. The Yankees have a historically great bullpen on paper. I’m still boldly predicting Ottavino will have to save the day in the ninth inning.

Romine will get an extension before Judge

Look, this probably won’t happen seeing how it wouldn’t qualify as a bold prediction if it were likely, but folks, get ready for Austin Romine to get a contract extension before other core players. Romine is due to become a free agent after the season and …

  • … the Yankees love him. Absolutely love him.
  • … Romine will be cheap, which presumably makes coming to terms easier.
  • … the free agent market is increasingly hostile toward players, hence all the recent extensions.

“I’d love to start, but I love being here. I like my job. I like this team. I’m looking forward to being on another winning team,” said Romine to Randy Miller recently. The American League catching picture stinks right now. Romine very well might get offers to start next winter, which is why I expect the Yanks to swoop in with an extension offer sooner rather than later. Two years and $5M seems reasonable.

As for Judge, he will earn $684,300 this year, his final season as a dirt cheap pre-arbitration player. The recent Alex Bregman extension (six years, $100M) and less recent Mike Trout extension (six years, $144.5M) indicate a Judge extension will fall in the six-year, $120M range. Bregman and Trout signed their deals at the same service time level as Judge, so that’s the ballpark number. He’s a $20M per year player on an extension.

During a radio interview earlier this week, Judge said “we haven’t spoken about that” when asked about a possible extension. He did kinda sorta indicate his agent may be talking to the Yankees though. Hal Steinbrenner more or less ducked a question about possible extensions in a radio interview the same day. Brendan Kuty has a transcript:

“I’ll leave that to (general manager Brian Cashman),” Steinbrenner said. “I’m not going to get into who we have talked to about the concept or who we do want to or don’t want to. But I will say it’s obvious we can’t do everybody at once. There are numerous situations we’re looking at when it comes to major league service time and the other part of the puzzle is, how conducive is the player to a concept like that. More to come. Stay tuned. We love all of our players. We love our young players. And we want them wearing pinstripes.”

This is my thinking: Judge already has lucrative endorsement deals with Pepsi and Adidas, among other #brands, and he’s a year away from a potential record arbitration payday. Kris Bryant ($10.85M), Francisco Lindor ($10.55M), and Mookie Betts ($10.5M) are the high-water marks for first year arbitration-eligible players. Repeating his 2018 season in 2019 (minus the wrist injury) would put Judge in position to crack $11M next year.

Because the endorsements give him some level of financial security, Judge is in good position to go year-to-year in arbitration to maximize his earning potential, or at least drive a real hard bargain in extension talks. He’s not stupid. He knows he’s the face of the franchise and one of the game’s biggest and most marketable stars. Passing on a nine-figure extension after only two full MLB seasons can’t be easy. Judge is one of the few players who could swing it.

The Yankees control Judge through 2022, so, while they surely want to lock him up at a below-market rate as soon as possible, there’s not much urgency. He’s not going anywhere anytime soon. Romine, on the other hand, can bolt after the season, and the generally weak catching situation around baseball means it’s possible another team will lure him away with a starting job. Time is of the essence with Romine. Free agency is months away, not years.

Furthermore, Romine is going to be cheap, and that makes coming to an agreement easier. The bigger the contract, the more complicated it gets. Martin Maldonado and James McCann both inked one-year deals worth $2.5M over the winter. Doubling that figures to catch Romine’s attention (and would double his career earnings) and could lead to a quick deal. It makes too much sense not to happen. Judge is playing the long game. Romine … is not.