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River Ave. Blues » Josh Johnson

Mailbag: Kazmir, Johnson, Bichette, Soriano

August 30, 2013 by Mike 36 Comments

Just four questions this week but they’re really good ones. The best way to send us anything is through the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar.

(Jason Miller/Getty)
(Jason Miller/Getty)

Travis asks: Should the Yankees look to sign Scott Kazmir for 2014?

It’s hard to believe Kazmir is still only 29 years old. He won’t even turn 30 until January. Kazmir missed essentially all of 2011 and 2012 due to shoulder and back injuries before showcasing himself in an independent league. He turned a non-roster invite from the Indians into a rotation spot in Spring Training, beating out Daisuke Matsuzaka. Kazmir has pitched to a 4.25 ERA and 4.00 FIP in 125 innings across 23 starts this year, his best season since 2009 and a very impressive comeback. He deserves some major props for sticking with it.

Kazmir hasn’t gotten many ground balls (40.3%) and he has been homer prone (1.22 HR/9 and 12.2% HR/FB) this summer, but his strikeout (8.28 K/9 and 21.6 K%) and walk (2.95 BB/9 and 7.7 BB%) rates are really good. He’s handled left-handed batters very well (.242 wOBA and 2.22 FIP), righties not so much (.361 wOBA and 4.80 FIP). After all the injuries, the thing you worry about most is the quality of his stuff. He uses his two-seam fastball far more than four-seamer at this point and the velocity has been fine all year:

Kazmir Two-Seamer

It’s not the blazing upper-90s heat he had back in the (Devil) Rays days, but that will work. His trademark slider averages 82.8 mph and more importantly, PitchFX says it’s averaging 4.6 inches of movement overall. That’s in line with 2007-2009 (the first years of PitchFX) and better than what he showed in 2010. Having seen him pitch a few times this year, I’m comfortable saying it isn’t the same wipeout slider that helped him lead the AL in strikeouts at age 23. The pitch is more effective than it has been in years, however. Kazmir also works with an upper-70s/low-80s changeup.

When I first read the question, my initial reaction was “no way.” I mean, c’mon. It’s Scott Kazmir. He hasn’t been effective in like forever. But, when I saw that he was missing bats, limiting walks, sustaining his fastball velocity, and getting more break on his slider, I have to say that I’m intrigued. I would be very skeptical about giving him a multi-year contract though. Yes, he is only 29, but he’s got an ugly (arm) injury history and he is still a homer/fly ball prone lefty with a massive platoon split. Lots of red flags. There’s a non-zero chance he could turn back into a top shelf starter, but I think you have to consider him more of a back-end guy at this point. The Yankees will need starters this winter and while Kazmir might not be the most ideal solution, he’s someone worth considering.

Damix asks: Josh Johnson was both terrible and injured this year, but given the budget and rotation uncertainty, is he worth a shot for next year?

Johnson, who turns 30 in January like Kazmir, was indeed awful (6.20 ERA and 4.61 FIP) in 81.1 innings across 16 starts for the Blue Jays this year. He missed a little more than a month with a triceps issue earlier this season and is now done for the year with a forearm strain. Johnson had Tommy John surgery way back in 2007 (has it really been that long already? geez) and missed most of 2011 with shoulder inflammation. He had a 3.81 ERA and 3.41 FIP in 191.1 innings with the Marlins last summer, and that’s the guy Toronto was hoping they’d get in 2013.

Unlike Kazmir, Johnson is injured right now and will head into the free agent market as an unknown. There’s still time for Kazmir to break down, but that’s besides the point. It’s been three years since Johnson was truly dominant in a full season of work, but he did miss bats (9.18 K/9 and 21.6 K%) and get ground balls (45.1%) for the Blue Jays this year. He also gave up a ton of homers (1.66 HR/9 and 18.5% HR/FB) and got slaughtered by right-handed batters (.441 wOBA). If they could get him on a one-year contract with a low base salary and bunch of incentives, great. The Yankees won’t have a ton of money to spend under the $189M luxury tax threshold and they can’t afford to spend $10M or so on a reclamation project pitcher. They need some more certainty.

(The Orlando Sentinel)
(The Orlando Sentinel)

Michael asks: Please give me a statistical reason to think that Dante Bichette Jr. is not done as a prospect.

First things first: statistics are just a small part of the prospect pie. The further you get away from the big leagues, the less meaningful the stats become. The scouting report should always come first in my opinion.

That said, it’s tough to defend DBJ at this point. He hit .248/.322/.331 (84 wRC+) with three homers in 522 plate appearances for Low-A Charleston last season, was sent back there this year, and responded by hitting .210/.291/.322 (80 wRC+) with ten homers in 470 plate appearances. The increase in power (.083 vs. .112 ISO) comes with an increase in strikeouts (18.0 vs. 24.0 K%). Bichette, a righty bat who turns 21 next month, managed a .250/.319/.440 line in 94 plate appearances against lefties this year, so I guess that’s the reason to think he’s still a prospect.  He was productive against southpaws. Things are looking grim, but I wouldn’t write him off yet at this age.

Stephen asks: Half-embarrassed to admit this, but I had no idea Alfonso Soriano was close to 400 homeruns. I figured at the end of his career he may be closing in on that, but at this point, he is close to making 500 a real possibility. Is Soriano a Hall of Famer? I have honestly never even considered the possibility because he has only had two really good years, but his career numbers are pretty solid. He’ll also probably get his 300th stolen base in the next year or two as well.

Soriano hit his 400th career homer on Tuesday night, making him only the 43rd player in history with 2,000 career hits and 400 homers. He’s only the sixth with those two milestones plus 250 career steals. Only 24 of those 43 players are in the Hall of Fame, but I count ten more who will be or should be enshrined at some point: Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Chipper Jones, Ken Griffey Jr., Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas, Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, and Mike Piazza. A few others are on the bubble. Obviously guys like Bonds, A-Rod, and Manny have no prayer of getting into the Hall at this point, but their bodies of work are Hall of Fame worthy.

Anyway, out of those 43 players in the 2,000-hit/400-homer club, Soriano’s career 28.2 WAR ranks … 43rd. I guess that makes sense since he just joined the club, but it goes to show how much of his offensive value was squandered on defense over the year. Soriano should zoom passed Paul Konerko (28.7 WAR) at some point, but the next guy on the list is Carlos Delgado (44.4 WAR). That would be very hard to do at age 37 (38 in January). He hasn’t hit fewer than 20 homers since his rookie year in 2001 and even though he’s about to have his second consecutive 30+ homer season, it will probably take him at least four and possibly five seasons to get to 500 career. Even if he does, I don’t think 500 homers is an automatic ticket into the Hall of Fame anymore.

I remember being so enthralled by Soriano when he first broke into the league because he was this rail-thin guy who huge power and big speed. He was so exciting. It’s hard to believe his career is coming to an end now and even harder to believe how much he’s accomplished. Four-hundred homers? Two-thousand hits? Almost 300 steals? Did anyone realistically think that was possible when he was a rookie? Crazy. Soriano is a career .272/.321/.504 (113 OPS+) hitter who’s had a brilliant career. A brilliant career at is just short of Cooperstown worthy in my eyes.

Filed Under: Mailbag Tagged With: Alfonso Soriano, Dante Bichette Jr., Josh Johnson, Scott Kazmir

Blue Jays & Marlins swing ten-ish player blockbuster

November 13, 2012 by Mike 221 Comments

The Blue Jays and Marlins are on the verge of completing a monster ten-ish player blockbuster that will send Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, John Buck, and Emilio Bonifacio to Toronto for Henderson Alvarez, Yunel Escobar, and various prospects. The deal is not official yet and reports are still trickling in about who those various prospects actually are, so I suggest checking out MLBTR every so often until this thing is finalized.

Toronto lost 89 games and a ton of players to injury last year, but this trade obviously improves their outlook for next season. We have all winter to analyze this deal and how it relates to the Yankees, but for now here’s a thread to discuss this monstrosity.

Filed Under: Asides, Hot Stove League Tagged With: Emilio Bonifacio, Henderson Alvarez, John Buck, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Miami Marlins, Toronto Blue Jays

Mailbag: Plan B, Damon, Cano

December 10, 2010 by Mike 101 Comments

Boy, lots of people are wondering what the Yankees will do if they don’t sign Cliff Lee for whatever reason. I’m curious too, but I’m also pretty optimistic about them signing the lefty. Anyway, this week’s mailbag offers a trio of Plan B questions, plus some stuff on Johnny Damon and Robbie Cano’s career. If you ever want to send in a question, just use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar.

Ryan asks: If the Yanks miss out on Lee and/or Pettitte retires who do the Yanks target via trade? They don’t seem high on Greinke, Liriano and Carpenter moves don’t make sense for those clubs and Garza in-division would be a hard get. Is Nolasco, Wandy, Lowe, Zambrano or Carmona good enough?

Greinke would be the best of the bunch, by quite a margin, but like you said the team doesn’t seem too enthused about landing him. I agree with you on Liriano, Carpenter, and Garza as well. Nolasco’s a really good pitcher, with 8.6 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 (removing intentional walks) in his three full seasons. He’s never posted worse than a 3.86 FIP or 3.75 xFIP, or been worth less than 2.5 wins according to FanGraphs. He’s also pretty affordable as a Super Two, earning $3.8M in 2010 while still being under team control in 2011 and 2012. My biggest concern with Nolasco is that he’s really homer prone, about one every 7.1 innings pitched, and that’s in a big park in Florida. He won’t replace Lee, very few can, but Nolasco could certainly be a solid mid-rotation guy for the Yankees.

I really like Wandy Rodriguez, but I think the price would be a little too nuts even though he’ll be a free agent after the season. Derek Lowe’s okay these days, he’s good for innings but not necessary good performance. If the Braves eat some of the $30M left on his contract and take some mid-level prospects in return, sure. I suspect they’ll opt to keep him under those conditions though. Zambrano’s a nutcase and isn’t as good as everyone thinks; A.J. Burnett has out fWAR’d Big Z 12.8 to 11.8 since 2006. Plus there’s a ton of money left on his deal. And he’s a nut case. Carmona’s way too risky. He’s generally good, but his consistency makes A.J. blush.

Of the guys you mentioned, Nolasco’s the best, though I’d try really really hard for Greinke or Carpenter before settling on him. Whichever way they go, the pitcher they get will not be as good as Cliff Lee, that much is a given.

Adam asks: If the Yanks lose out on Lee, do you think Josh Johnson is an obvious target? Would a package of Montero, Brackman/Betances, Noesi, plus one more lower level guy get it done? Or do you think the trade would be even more.

The Marlins have no reason to move Johnson. He signed a big contract that keeps him in Florida for the next three years at well below market rates (just $35.25M through 2013), and don’t forget that their new park opens next season. Not only will that rake in some extra cash, but the team will surely want its young, homegrown, superstar right-hander to throw the first pitch in the park’s history. The Fish don’t really have a use for Montero; they just gave John Buck that ridiculous contract and they’re set at first with Gaby Sanchez. Even if Sanchez falters, Logan Morrison will step back into his natural position. So that right there creates a problem, Montero has less value to them than most.

If I’m the Marlins, I want a monster return for Johnson, more than the Royals want for Greinke given his contract status. Montero, Gardner, and Banuelos wouldn’t get it done, not even with two other prospects (say Adam Warren and David Adams) thrown in. I would, theoretically, ask for a young pitcher with Josh Johnson upside and big league success to his name, a top third base prospect, a centerfielder, and then minor leaguers. I don’t know who can put that package together, maybe the Orioles with Brian Matusz, Josh Bell, and Adam Jones (plus others)? That doesn’t do it for me though, and I love Brian Matusz. Point being, it’ll be so tough to acquire JJ that I don’t think he’s a viable Plan B. He’d be great, no question, I just don’t know how the hell the Yankees would get him.

Anonymous asks: I guess I’m getting a little impatient waiting for the Yanks to make a move. Cash could look at the Braves with Jair Jurrjens a 24 yr old with a 37-27 record, maybe Swisher & Eduardo Nunez with a few pitching prospects throw-in. Or take Chris Carpenter for two yrs at 15m & Jon Jay a good young OFer a hell of a lot cheaper then Lee! And Ricky Nolasco could be had at around 6m. Look at Lee in five yrs 37 and getting paid 24-25m?

We already talked about Carpenter and Nolasco, so let’s focus on Jurrjens. He’s 24, yes, but he’s had some injury trouble in his young career, namely a shoulder issue in 2007 and a pair of leg related ailments in 2010. He’s also not a strikeout guy, posting a career best 6.65 K/9 this season. The walks aren’t much of an issue (2.98 BB/9 over the last three years, taking out intentionals) but his declining ground ball rate (51.5% grounders in 2008, 42.9% in 2009, 39.9% in 2010) and increasing homerun rate (0.53 HR/9 in 2009, 0.63 in 2009, 1.01 in 2010) are.

Jurrjens is under control for three more seasons as an arbitration eligible player, though his peripheral stats scare me a bit. Swisher for Jurrjens would be pretty fair in terms of value (the Yanks would probably have to kick in someone like Nunez, who you suggested), but I’d rather keep Swish than trade him for a guy that won’t be much more than a mid-rotation arm for the Yanks, assuming he stays healthy. With Crawford off the market (this question was sent in before Crawford signed), trading Swish (or any outfielder for that matter) opens a rather gaping hole.

Matt asks: Hey huge fan of the site read it everyday several times a day, you guys are great. I have an idea for a post. The case to bring back Damon?

I think everyone here knows we’ve moved on from Damon even though we full appreciate his service to the Yankee cause.  He followed up great 2009 season (.376 wOBA, 3.3 fWAR) with a decidedly average one in 2010 (.340 wOBA, 1.9 fWAR), and it wasn’t just Detroit’s ballpark either. His wOBA at Comerica (.350) far exceeded his wOBA on the road (.330). For argument’s sake, let’s make a case for a reunion with Johnny.

Although Damon’s offense dropped off this season, he still got on base at a .355 clip and stole double digit bases. Even though Comerica didn’t hurt him much, moving back into Yankee Stadium would probably help get him back into double digit homers as well. Given Brett Gardner’s recent wrist surgery and the chance that it could negatively impact him at least at the outset of next season, Damon would give the team some leftfield insurance and overall depth in general. If he came back, Jorge Posada would have to be the everyday catcher because you want both in the lineup. Playing one or the other defeats the purpose. That would allow them to be a bit more patient with Montero should they need to be.

Johnny can’t be looking for much money after making $8M in 2010, so $4-5M should get it done. Basically Russell Martin money. There’s certainly a case for bringing Damon back, but given the team’s needs, I don’t see much of a fit going forward.

Kevin asks: If you had to guess right now, Robinson Cano will have how many hits when he retires?

He’s at 1,075 right now, less than two months after his 28th birthday. Derek Jeter, for comparison, was sitting on close to 1,400 hits when he was a same age. I don’t think Robbie will reach 3,000 hits simply because the odds are greatly stacked against him. He’s just too far away and middle infielders tend to breakdown rapidly and without warning in the mid-30’s.

I don’t see why Cano can’t maintain a 200 hits a year pace for the next three seasons before falling off to say, 180 for two years then 160 or so for three years. That would leave him right around 2,500, still a ridiculous total, more than Frank Thomas, Chipper Jones, and Mickey Mantle. Want an exact number? I’ll say … 2,517.

Filed Under: Mailbag Tagged With: Jair Jurrjens, Johnny Damon, Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Robinson Cano

Celebrating a Halladay weekend

November 28, 2009 by Benjamin Kabak 74 Comments

Much as 2007 was the Winter of Johan, 2009 is shaping up to be a Very Merry Halladay. (OK, OK. I’ll stop with the bad puns now.) We’ve heard all about how the Blue Jays are making Roy Halladay available, how the team is willing to trade him within in the AL East and how they want a Major League-ready arm and bat as well as other prospects in exchange.

With these demands as a starting point, then, it’s little wonder that Joe yesterday expressed his belief that a trade would not be consummated any time soon. No team is going to be too willing to give up two cost-controlled players for one year plus the right to (over)pay Halladay for a few more years. If the Blue Jays want to turn Halladay into something younger and cheaper, they are probably going to have to reduce their demands.

But there is another wild card in these negotiations. What of Halladay? When the Jays’ ace signed his three-year, $40-million extension in March 2006, Toronto granted him a full no-trade clause. Alex Anthopoulos can talk until he is blue in the face, but unless Roy signs off on the deal, he ain’t goin’ nowhere.

Last night, we learned that Roy Halladay appears willing to waive that NTC for the Yanks. Bob Elliot, a Toronto-based sports writer, fills us in:

Will Roy Halladay leave Toronto via the same route as ex-Blue Jays aces David Cone and Roger Clemens?

…It has always been a possibility. Now that chance has been upgraded. “I don’t know who Toronto will wind up with,” a major league executive said Friday. “I don’t know when he is going and I don’t know where he’s going. But I do know that Halladay has told the Jays he’ll approve a trade to the Yankees.”

…Halladay has never said yeah or nay to the Yanks and still hasn’t, but this third party news clears the decks for Halladay to follow the path of Cone and Clemens.

Halladay, reports Elliot, has already said that he would block trades to both the Twins and Rangers, among others, and he feels that this news opens up an avenue to New York for the Jays’ ace. Still, though, if the price remains Jesus Montero along with either Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes and other prospects — or simply Jesus plus one of those two pitchers — it’s too steep a deal, too high a price for the Yanks. Brian Cashman has held on to his blue chips through thick and thin, through Johan and a bad 2008. He won’t change course so soon. Across town, Elena Gustines and Jay Schreiber of The Times urge the Mets to take Vernon Wells with Halladay, but the Yanks shouldn’t even consider that move.

Meanwhile, while Halladay remains a big name out there, the Marlins may have thrown a wrench into Toronto’s plans. John Perrotto, via Twitter, says that he “keeps hearing” that the Marlins are “very willing to trade Josh Johnson right now for the right package.” Joe Frisaro, the beat writer for the Marlins’ official site, disputes that notion. I am of the belief that any player is generally always available for the right price, and if the Larry Beinfest gets a good offer, he won’t hesitate to pull the trigger.

Now, we’ve gone on record with our interest in Josh Johnson. He has the stuff to succeed in the AL East, and his peripherals suggest he will. He will be just 26 come Opening Day 2010 and figures to have his peak years ahead of him. If the Yanks are going to sell some of the farm on a pitcher this year, I’d rather see them go after Johnson than Halladay. Both, it seems, are available, and the Hot Stove machinations are starting to heat up.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: Josh Johnson, Roy Halladay

Going after the big Fish

November 23, 2009 by Mike 187 Comments

Josh JohnsonLate last week we got word that contract extension talks between the Marlins and righthander Josh Johnson had reached a stalemate, and there doesn’t appear to be any way around it. “We made it clear that it was going to be this year or it wasn’t going to happen,” said Matt Sosnick, Johnson’s agent. “It was now or never. And the Marlins agreed.”

Johnson’s camp was looking for Zack Greinke money (four years, $38M), but the Marlins reportedly offered just three years and $21M, which is Nate Robertson money. Instead, the two sides are now preparing their arbitration cases, which should result in Johnson making somewhere around $5M in 2010. A team friendly salary for sure, but the Marlins are looking at a $36M payroll for next season with $32M already committed before arbitration raises to Johnson and nine others. The Fish will surely trade off some expensive players this offseason, it’s what they do.

Considering where he is in his career, Johnson’s trade value is as high as it can be. He had a tremendous season in 2009 (5.5 WAR) and still has two years of team control left. As we’ve seen in the past, guys with just one year of control left don’t bring as big of a return. The price will surely be steep, but if you’re going to unload some of your best young players, Johnson is the kind of guy you do it for.

There’s always concern whenever you import a pitcher from the National League and stick him in the AL East, however Johnson isn’t like most pitchers. He has true front-of-the-rotation power stuff that enables him to do the two best things a pitcher can do: strike guys out and generate ground balls. Here’s the list of pitchers who struck out at least eight batters per nine innings, walked no more than two-and-a-half batters per nine innings, and got at least three groundballs for every two flyballs in 2009:

  1. Josh Johnson

That’s it. Not Felix, not Lincecum, not even Greinke. No one else. Just JJ. His fastball is a legit mid-90’s heater, and he backs it up with a sharp mid-80’s slider and split-change that he probably doesn’t use often enough. He’s got a huge powerful frame (listed at 6′-7″, 250 lbs on the Marlins’ site) that screams durability and innings eater. The Yankees got a first hand look at him on June 20th of this year, when he allowed just three hits and one run over seven innings against our beloved Bombers. Here’s the video highlights from that game.

Joe Girardi is familiar with Johnson, having managed him in Florida during his rookie campaign in 2006. Of course, there’s the incident in when Girardi sent Johnson back out to mound after an 82-minute rain delay, which was followed by Johnson experiencing some forearm tightness, and soon enough Tommy John surgery. That’s the only injury of Johnson’s career, so it’s not much of a red flag considering how well he’s recovered. In fact, his innings buildup had been textbook up to that point.

Year Age Level Innings IP Increase
2002 18 Rookie 15 –
2003 19 Low-A 82.1 +67.1
2004 20 High-A 114.1 +32
2005 21 Double-A/MLB 152 +37.2
2006 22 MLB 157 +5

Johnson was drafted in 2002, hence the partial minor league season. He probably threw another 40 IP in high school that year, so don’t sweat the big jump. The rain delay game was on September 12th, 2006, what ended up being his last outing of the season. If he finishes off the month healthy, he’s probably at 180 IP with a +28 IP increase on the season.

Looking around at some other instances in which a pitcher of Johnson’s age, caliber, and cost were traded, the return seems to be pretty consistent: two top young players with two or fewer years of service time, plus some lesser prospects. Think Javy Vazquez (the first trade), Dan Haren (the second trade), and Josh Beckett. All three fetched two young stud players plus some lesser prospects. Let’s use that as a blueprint.

As I see it, the Yanks have three players that qualify as true studs: Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, and Jesus Montero. Austin Jackson is a notch below those guys. As for Joba and Hughes, I think you have to draw a line and make it one or the other, not both. That means Montero has to be included in the deal. Fine. That’s life, you have to give something to get something. The Marlins have been looking for a catcher of the future for years, and Montero would fit that bill. Plus they could always flip him elsewhere. Whatever they end up doing with him, I don’t really care.

Getting back to Joba and Hughes; both have four years of team control left, but Joba has proven more in the big leagues up to this point, primarily by staying healthy as a starter over a full season. I consider both guys to be interchangable, and I don’t really have a preference who stays and who goes. I know it’ll hurt, but think about it, if those guys reach their ceiling, what will they be? Well, pretty much what Josh Johnson is right now. I don’t see how you’d have a problem giving up a young guy that might turn into that kind of a pitcher for a young guy that already is that kind of pitcher. I guess you can let Florida pick between them, then begrudgingly agree to make it sound like they got the guy you want to keep. Whatever, I’m not exactly an expert at negotiating.

As for the rest of the package, I’d make pretty much everyone else in the farm system fair game, plus the younger guys in the big leagues: Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner, Ramiro Pena, Frankie Cervelli, David Robertson, and Phil Coke. Florida wouldn’t have any interest in Robbie Cano because a) he’s getting expensive (owed $19M over the next two years), and b) they already have a second baseman in Dan Uggla. Even if Uggla’s traded, Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan would take over at second, his natural position.

Obviously some guys are more valuable than others based on where they are in their careers. K-Rob™ is more valuable than Mark Melancon, Ramiro Pena is more valuable than either Eduardo Nunez or Reegie Corona, etc. You’d prefer to keep the guys already in the big leagues, even if means giving up that one extra second or third tier prospect. Let’s assume that Zach McAllister – who is basically the Yanks’ best starting pitching prospect in the minors – is part of the deal, as is Eduardo Nunez. The names really aren’t important, I’m more concerned about prospect status. Any combination of a Grade-B and a Grade-C prospect will work. If you want to call it Arodys Vizcaino and Abe Almonte, that’s fine with me, I don’t care.

So, is a Johnson for Joba, Montero, McAllister, and Nunez fair? Thanks to the wonderful world of spreadsheets and sabermetrics, we can find out. Using the trade value calculator created by Sky Kalkman of Beyond the Box Score and my WAR/salary assumptions, we can determine that Johnson has a trade value of $52.6M, while Joba is worth $31.8M in a trade. Victor Wang’s research says that top 10 hitting prospects (Montero) are worth $36.5M, Grade-B pitchers (McAllister) $7.3M, and Grade-C hitters age 22 or younger (Nunez) $0.7M. That makes the total value of the Yanks ‘package $76.5M.

So yeah, maybe that package would be overpaying. Perhaps Florida should kick in a prospect, or maybe even one of their nine other arbitration eligible players since they’re looking to unload some of those guys. I’m not going to get hung up on a difference of 45.4% when there are so many assumptions in play. On the surface, that four player package is at least on par with what the Red Sox gave up to get Josh Beckett, if not greater. However, the Yanks aren’t absorbing $18M worth of Mike Lowell, and Josh Johnson now is better than Beckett was then (Beckett’s WAR the year before the trade was 4.0). Beckett just had the added hype of being the second overall pick and a highly touted prospect and World Series MVP. I feel comfortable saying that package is at least in the the ballpark.

It’s not often you get a chance to acquire a pitcher of Johnson’s caliber. A young, power arm with his best years still ahead of him. This isn’t 32-year-old Roy Halladay, or Johan Santana coming off a sketchy second half. Johnson’s a bonafide franchise cornerstone type of pitcher that will be paid below market value for the next two years, possibly longer if he’s down with re-opening discussions about a contract extension after a trade. He’s not Felix Hernandez, but he’s not far off. The Yankees would do well to bring him to the Bronx.

Photo Credit: Jonathan Daniel, Getty Images

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: Josh Johnson

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