At some point soon, the Yankees will clinch their first postseason berth since 2012. Their magic number is three and there are seven games left in the season, meaning they control their own destiny. The AL East title is not completely off the table yet, just very unlikely, so the focus has understandably shifted to the wildcard game.
The Yankees have a comfortable 4.5-game lead over the Astros for the first wildcard spot (five in the loss column), making it likely the wildcard game will be played in Yankee Stadium one week from tomorrow. That’s good. I know the Yankees haven’t played so well at home in the second half, but I can’t imagine anyone wants them to go on the road for that game.
Who will the Yankees play in that wildcard game? That question is not close to being answered right now. Here are the wildcard standings:
The Indians, Orioles, and Red Sox are all mathematically still alive, but, realistically, the second wildcard race is between the Astros, Angels, and Twins. Those three clubs do not have any head-to-head games remaining this season. The ‘Stros control their own destiny while the Angels and Twins need some help.
It’s impossible to predict how one individual baseball game will play out, so I don’t think you can make an argument the Yankees are better off playing one of those teams instead of one of the other two. Would I rather see them play the Twins given their history against Minnesota? Oh yeah. But it really doesn’t mean anything. I also don’t want to see them face Dallas Keuchel, but again, who knows?
As far as I’m concerned, the longer the second wildcard race goes on, the better it is for the Yankees. The Astros, Angels, and Twins won’t have the luxury of resting their players and, more importantly, lining up their pitching. For example, Keuchel started yesterday and is scheduled to start again Friday. Houston might need him to make that start just to get into the postseason, which means Keuchel would either have to start the wildcard game on three days’ rest or not start it at all.
Again, we all know anything can happen in any given game, but boy, the Astros having to use Keuchel next weekend would be pretty huge for the Yankees, wouldn’t it? I know I’d prefer that to happen. There’s also the matter of those teams potentially wearing out their bullpens — there is an off-day before the wildcard game, so this might not be that big a deal — and older position players down the stretch just to get to the postseason.
I have no idea whether any of this has a tangible on-field benefit for the Yankees, I just know it seems like they’re be better off facing a team that has to battle right down to Game 162 to make the wildcard game. The less of a breather their opponent can take, the better I’ll feel. I’ll be rooting for a three-team race for that final wildcard spot all week.
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