And now, the final road trip of the season. It’s a big one too. Eleven games spanning 12 days and three cities. The trip starts tonight with the first of four in Boston. If you’re still hoping the Yankees will go on a run and win the AL East, this series is pretty much a must sweep. Thing aren’t quite that desperate in the wildcard race, but it’s close. The Yankees are 5-7 against the BoSox this season, including 2-4 at Fenway Park.
What Have They Done Lately?
Last night the Red Sox lost only the fourth 1-0 game in Fenway Park since the start of the 2013 season. Mark Trumbo’s homer and Kevin Gausman’s brilliance did them in. Nice to see Gausman pitch well against a team other than the Yankees for once. Anyway, the BoSox have dropped their last two games but did win five of six prior to that. They’re 81-64 with a +169 run differential overall. That’s the third best record and first best run differential in the AL. Boston is in first place in the AL East; they’re one game up on the O’s, two up on the Blue Jays, and four up on the Yankees. And 19 up on the Rays, but no one cares about them anymore.
Offense & Defense
The Red Sox have the best offense in baseball and the best offense by any team since the 2009 Yankees. These Red Sox are averaging 5.55 runs per game. The 2009 Yankees averaged 5.65 runs per game. Boston has a team 114 wRC+ and their only injured position players are 3B Pablo Sandoval (shoulder), IF Josh Rutledge (knee), and C/OF Blake Swihart (ankle). They all had season-ending surgeries.
Manager John Farrell has changed up his lineup fairly recently. Nowadays 2B Dustin Pedroia (127 wRC+) leads off with SS Xander Bogaerts (111 wRC+) second, DH David Ortiz (161 wRC+) third, RF Mookie Betts (132 wRC+) fourth, and 1B Hanley Ramirez (121 wRC+) fifth. Farrell moved Betts down to better take advantage of his power. Pedroia is hitting .435/.461/.519 (164 wRC+) since moving to the leadoff spot last month, which is ridiculous. The top of that lineup is not fun at all.
Right now IF Aaron Hill (88 wRC+) and 1B/3B Travis Shaw (98 wRC+) are platooning at third while ex-Yankee OF Chris Young (139 wRC+) and C Sandy Leon (150 wRC+) are the everyday left fielder and catcher, respectively. Leon’s having an insane out-of-nowhere season, though he has cooled off of late, especially in the power department. CF Jackie Bradley Jr. (120 wRC+) is back hitting eighth and ninth. Farrell likes Bradley hitting lower in the order because he acts as a second leadoff man.
UTIL Brock Holt (91 wRC+) and C Ryan Hanigan (18 wRC+) are the regular bench players, and it’s worth noting OF Andrew Benintendi (123 wRC+) recently came off the DL following a knee injury. He’s available but it sounds like the Red Sox don’t want to use him unless it’s an emergency, so he must not be 100% physically. C Bryan Holaday, C Christian Vazquez, IF Marco Hernandez, IF Deven Marrero, and IF Yoan Moncada are the September additions. Moncada has a 60.0% strikeout rate so far. See? The Yankees knew what they were doing all along.
The Red Sox are a good defensive team, particularly up the middle. Pedroia, Bradley, and Betts are all excellent in the field while Young and Bogaerts are good as well. Shaw and Hanley are liabilities on the corners though. We’ve seen it a few times firsthand this season. Leon and Hanigan are both strong defensive catchers. Leon’s thrown out 43% of attempted basestealers in his career, so don’t run on him.
Pitching Matchups
Thursday (7:10pm ET): RHP Masahiro Tanaka (vs. BOS) vs. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (vs. NYY)
Rodriguez, 23, has given the Yankees a lot of fits the last two years. He has an unsightly 4.70 ERA (4.87 FIP) in 16 starts and 88 innings this year, though it’s worth noting he’s been much better of late, pitching to a 2.63 ERA (3.48 FIP) in seven starts since the beginning of August. The peripherals across the board are not that great (19.0 K%, 8.6 BB%, 33.3 GB%, 1.53 HR/9), and his platoon split is small. Rodriguez sits in the mid-90s with his four-seamer and sinker, and his go-to secondary pitch is a quality upper-80s changeup. He’s thrown his mid-80s slider a little more often of late, though it’s still his worst pitch. The Yankees have faced the young southpaw twice this season, and he held them to one run in seven innings both times. Annoying!
Friday (7:10pm ET): RHP Luis Cessa (vs. BOS) vs. RHP Clay Buchholz (vs. NYY)
Man, what an awful season for Buchholz. He started the year in the rotation, got demoted to the bullpen, moved back to the rotation, got demoted again, and now he’s back in the rotation thanks to Steven Wright’s shoulder injury. The 32-year-old Buchholz has a 5.31 ERA (5.38 FIP) in 120.1 innings covering 18 starts and 16 relief appearances, and his numbers as a starter are ghastly: 5.71 ERA (5.76 FIP) with 16.0% strikeouts, 9.4% walks, 42.5% grounders, and 1.84 HR/9. Yikes. Lefties have hit him a lot harder than righties too. These days Buchholz sits in the low-to-mid-90s with his four-seamer and a tick below that with his cutter. A low-80s changeup and upper-70s curveball are his two non-fastballs. Amazingly, the Yankees have only seen Buchholz once this season. He came out of the bullpen last month, faced one batter, and got two outs. (Starlin Castro grounded into a double play.)
Saturday (1:05pm ET): RHP Bryan Mitchell (vs. BOS) vs. LHP David Price (vs. NYY)
The Yankees didn’t see Price when these two teams played last month, and I’m pretty sure that’s the first time Price did not start during a series against the Yankees in about six years. I haven’t bothered to look it up, but that sounds like it could be true. He never seems to miss them. Price, 31, has had an overall disappointing first season with the Red Sox (3.81 ERA and 3.36 FIP in 205.2 innings), though he has a 2.99 ERA (3.32 FIP) in the second half, and that’s the David Price we’re used to seeing. As usual, his strikeout (24.8%) and walk (5.2%) rates are excellent while his grounder (44.7%) and homer (1.05 HR/9) rates are worse than the league average. He’s always been a soft contact/pop-up guy. Price’s platoon split is small and his fastballs are still humming in the mid-90s. His cutter is a notch below that and it’s a nasty pitch he likes to backdoor to righties. A mid-80s changeup in his primary offspeed pitch, and he’ll also throw a few low-80s curves per start as well. The Yankees have seen Price three times this year: six runs in seven innings in May, six runs in 4.2 innings later in May, and three runs in 5.2 innings in July.
Sunday (8:00pm ET): LHP CC Sabathia (vs. BOS) vs. LHP Drew Pomeranz (vs. NYY)
In the grand scheme of things, the 27-year-old Pomeranz has had a breakout season in 2016, posting a 3.25 ERA (3.75 FIP) in 28 starts and 160.2 innings. He was a deserving All-Star too. Now, that said, his season can be broken down in 17 ace-caliber starts with the Padres (2.47 ERA and 3.14 FIP in 102 innings) and eleven meh starts with the Red Sox (4.60 ERA and 4.81 FIP in 58.2 innings). Not exactly what the BoSox were hoping for so far. Pomeranz has a great strikeout rate (26.8%) and a good ground ball rate (46.3%), though he walks too many (9.6%) and doesn’t limit dingers (1.12 HR/9). His homer rate with the Red Sox is 1.84 HR/9. Egads. Pomeranz has a negligible platoon split thanks mostly to his big upper-70s curveball and new-ish mid-80s cutter. He throws the curve about as often as he throws his low-90s four-seam fastball, so he uses it a lot. For whatever reason he’s more or less abandoned his changeup after the trade to Boston. The Yankees have seen Pomeranz twice this year. He held them to one run in seven innings while with the Padres back in July, then he held them to one run in 5.1 innings with the Red Sox last month.
Bullpen Status
Boston’s rotation has turned things around a bit in the second half, though their bullpen remains a real weakness, especially in the middle innings. It’s no surprise then that they’re carrying 12 relievers thanks to expanded rosters. Might as well load up that bullpen, right? Here is Farrell’s bullpen:
Closer: RHP Craig Kimbrel (2.78 ERA/2.65 FIP)
Setup: RHP Koji Uehara (4.05/3.69), RHP Brad Ziegler (2.37/3.11), LHP Robbie Ross Jr. (3.33/3.16)
Middle: RHP Matt Barnes (4.19/3.68), LHP Fernando Abad (3.30/3.57), RHP Junichi Tazawa (4.44/4.51)
Extra: RHP Heath Hembree, RHP Joe Kelly, LHP Henry Owens, RHP Noe Ramirez, LHP Robbie Scott
Uehara missed close to two months with a pectoral injury and returned just last week. The Red Sox eased him back into things with low-leverage innings at first, but he’s back to being the primary eighth inning guy now. Ziegler isn’t necessarily the seventh inning guy. He’s more like the backup setup man. He pitches the eighth the days Uehara isn’t available.
Uehara was the only reliever used yesterday and he threw just 14 pitches. Farrell doesn’t like to use the 41-year-old on back-to-back days though, so Ziegler figures to be the eighth inning guy tonight. Hopefully the Red Sox don’t need him. Head on over to our Bullpen Workload page for the status of Joe Girardi’s relief crew.
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