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River Ave. Blues » Archives for Steven Tydings

The ‘It’s not what you want’ guide to the 2019 Yankees

April 28, 2019 by Steven Tydings

It’s not what you want. (Mike Stobe/Getty Images)

The Yankees manager, whether you like the person or not, becomes a part of your life if you follow the team consistently. You begin to understand the way they talk, the nicknames they have for the players and how they handle the team.

Despite all of his accomplishments in New York, Joe Girardi left an imprint on my daily life with one phrase that became synonymous with him: “It’s not what you want.” Life will let you down in ways you can’t control and it will leave you throwing your hands up in the air in despair in the fashion of Girardi, muttering the catchphrase. Ask anyone who knows me and they’ll tell you I say it too often.

INWYW works well with any aspect of random failure. You leave your house in the morning and forget your umbrella? It’s Not What You Want. Your computer gives you the blue screen of death? It’s Not What You Want. Your baseball team loses every single valuable contributor to injury? It’s definitely Not What You Want.

There are also different levels of INWYW. Some issues are minor and cause minimal annoyment while others will introduce severe exasperation.

I decided to rank some of the problems facing the 2019 Yankees on the It’s Not What You Want scale, which ranges from 1-5 Girardis.

Shaky April Bullpen: Two Girardis

Despite coming in with tremendous expectations, the Yankees’ bullpen has had a rocky beginning to 2019. They’ve accumulated innings while not necessarily looking great doing so. Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino and Aroldis Chapman have each struggled. Dellin Betances is out for a while. Meanwhile, Chad Green was optioned to the minors and looked lost beforehand.

It’s not what you want.

But! the Yankees are hardly the only team having bullpen issues. Among contenders, the Red Sox, Dodgers, Brewers, Mets and Nationals are all having some trouble. Furthermore, would you be shocked if the Yankees’ bullpen shapes up? I wouldn’t be. There’s a lot of guys with proven track records and even if Green doesn’t get it together, others will. There’s minimal exasperation.

Aaron Boone’s Managing: 1.5 Girardis

OK, if this is from Girardi’s perspective, this is a five, but Boone is his successor.

Anyway, the complaints about Boone are pretty constant and it’s hard not to quibble with some of his decisions, whether it’s off-days, bullpen management or some strategic inconsistencies. The playoffs put them on the national stage.

However, the role of a modern MLB manager is entirely overblown. The front office hands down a lot of the decisions and Boone isn’t to blame for the spate of injuries or underperformance of others. Feel free to question Boone, but he’s not the main source of the Yankees’ problems. I just can’t get myself too overhyped about managerial decisions.

Oh no, more injuries. INWYW. (Brian Blanco/Getty)

The Injured List: Four Girardis

Oy vey. The Ringer detailed this pretty well, but the Yankees have had a truly historic smattering of injuries to their team. There are some short-term injuries with CC Sabathia and Gary Sanchez making quick returns and there are the long-term, significant ones to Aaron Judge, Luis Severino and Betances. The latter trio is arguably the Yankees’ best hitter, starting pitcher and reliever. The team has lost five (!) outfielders.

I’m genuinely unsure how a team can withstand the blows this team has taken, but they’re over .500 right now and thriving. Perhaps Severino being the only major blow to the rotation thus far has been its saving grace. Regardless, each subsequent IL announcement just gives an overwhelming feeling of despair, cursing the heavens with a INWYW.

The Defense: Two Girardis

The silver lining to the injuries has been everyday time for D.J. LeMahieu and Giovanny Urshela on the infield. Those guys are tremendous. The final groundout from Wednesday’s game would have been a throwing error or just a single with Miguel Andujar But losing Aarons Judge and Hicks, as well as Sanchez’s throwing arm for a time, haven’t help at all. Brett Gardner is still a strong outfielder but he’s best in a corner. We all miss Didi.

Pondering whether this is what you want or not. (Mike Carlson/Getty)

Missing out on Machado/Harper: Three Girardis

This is a special case of It’s Not What You Want: The level of exasperation is high, but the level of consequence is unknown. Would the Yankees have a better record with these guys? Maybe. Will not signing either player cost New York a World Series? Perhaps. It’s hard to know how much this has set back the Bombers and we’ll never truly nail it down. ¯\_(?)_/¯

River Avenue Blues Shutting Down: Five Girardis

This is my last post for the site. This place is the centerpiece to the Yankees Internet to me and there’s a major void without it. Losing this place is … not what you want. The last two-plus years writing here has been a blast. I hope to keep writing in some capacity and will be popping up on YESNetwork.com on occasion. Thanks to Mike, Ben, Joe and everyone who has made this site what it’s been.

Filed Under: Whimsy Tagged With: Aaron Boone, INWYW, Joe Girardi

4/22 to 4/25 Series Preview: Los Angeles Angels

April 22, 2019 by Steven Tydings

Trout. (Getty Images)

Let’s hope the west coast is the best coast for the Yankees’ purposes as they begin a nine-game trip in Anaheim.

Their Story So Far

The Angels sit in the cellar of the American League West with a 9-13 record and -11 run differential. Their offense has been sluggish with a slightly below-average wRC+ despite having the literal best player in baseball, Mike Trout. Their pitching staff has been middling to below-average as well, though they’ve outperformed their peripherals.

As a staff, they allow 1.81 homers per nine, fourth-worst in baseball. Their bullpen has actually settled in with the fourth-best ERA in the AL, but their rotation has been a mess due to just about everyone calling the injured list their home, putting together a collective 6.13 ERA.

Injury Report

The Angels have similar injury issues to the Yankees but on the pitching side. Justin Upton (turf toe) is out until June while pitchers Andrew Heaney (elbow), JC Ramirez (Tommy John), Keynan Middleton (Tommy John), Nick Tropeano (shoulder strain) and Tyler Skaggs (ankle sprain) are all out with only Skaggs potentially returning this month.

Their biggest name on the IL is, of course, Shohei Ohtani, both a hitter and a pitcher. He should be back early next month as a hitter only while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Player Spotlight: Mike Trout

If you don’t want to marvel about Mike Trout, skip two paragraphs down. Trout doesn’t have the best wRC+ in baseball, but his 221 mark is right near the top. He tops the American League in fWAR and bWAR, has an unreal .333/.524/.719 batting line and walks more than he strikes out.

In fact, Trout walks in nearly a fourth of his plate appearances, 24.4 percent to be exact. He’s cut down on his stolen base attempts this season — though he is 1-for-1 in steals — while remaining a force in center field. There isn’t a player right now that hits as well as he does, and it’s a credit to the New Jersey product that he maintains his excellence in the field.

Milestone Watch

Albert Pujols is the active leader in home runs, RBI and GIDP, among other categories, and he may move up the all-time RBI list this series. According to Baseball Reference, he is seventh with 1,993 RBI. Lou Gehrig had 1,995 in his career while Barry Bonds is in fifth place with 1,996. The Yankees obviously would like to delay his passing of the Iron Horse or all-time home run champ, but be on the lookout for Pujols this week.

Potential Lineup

The Yankees are starting two lefties this series, so here’s the lineup for LHPs. Kole Calhoun leads off against righties while backup catcher Kevan Smith (126 wRC+) started at DH against LHP Yusei Kikuchi on Saturday. LHB Brian Goodwin (180 wRC+) also gets time in LF against RHPs, as does 2B Tommy La Stella (148 wRC+).

  1. David Fletcher, 2B (.299/.347/.403, 104 wRC+)
  2. Mike Trout, CF (.333/.524/.719, 221 wRC+)
  3. Andrelton Simmons, SS (.273/.281/.398, 81 wRC+)
  4. Albert Pujols, DH (.238/.351/.429, 114 wRC+)
  5. Justin Bour, 1B (.203/.319/.305, 79 wRC+)
  6. Jonathan Lucroy, C (.297/.328/.328, 82 wRC+)
  7. Kole Calhoun, RF (.184/.271/.395, 80 wRC+)
  8. Peter Bourjos, LF (.103/.122/.128, -40 wRC+)
  9. Zack Cozart, 3B (.102/.141/.119, -33 wRC+)
Cahill. (Getty Images)

Pitching Matchups

Monday (10:07 PM ET): LHP J.A. Happ (vs. Angels) vs. RHP Matt Harvey (vs. Yankees)

Harvey got a fresh start with the team of his choosing this offseason, but his troubles on the mound followed him across the country. Through four starts, the former ace has allowed 21 runs (20 earned) in 18 2/3 innings. His WHIP is a hair under 2.00 and he’s surrendered four home runs. he hasn’t made it through five innings since his first start.

The former future Yankee averages 94 mph on his fastball, down about two mph from its 2015 peak. His slider, which he throws 30 percent of the time, sits in the mid-to-high 80s with a changeup and curveball mixed in.

If you’re looking for a silver lining for Harvey, his FIP is 5.99, a good 3.65 runs lower than his ERA. Furthermore, he’s had to face the Athletics, Rangers and Brewers thus far, each sporting a much better offense than the one he’ll see tonight.

Harvey. (Baseball Savant)

Tuesday (10:07 PM ET): RHP Domingo German (vs. Angels) vs. RHP Chris Stratton (vs. Yankees)

Stratton hasn’t had a much better go of it than Harvey in his new digs after a few seasons with the Giants. The right-hander has allowed 14 runs over 18 innings in four starts while walking more (13) than he’s struck out (11). Unlike Harvey, his WHIP is exactly 2.00.

Though Stratton had some walk issues in the past, they weren’t this extreme. Either his control is gone or there’s a semi-return to form coming. When the ball has been put in play, he’s been able to avoid hard contact this season, even if that wasn’t the case last year.

The 28-year-old has cut back on his low-90s fastball usage, relying more on his slider and curveball with the Angels. He also uses a changeup, though his high-spin fastball is his calling card.

Stratton. (Baseball Savant)

Wednesday (10:07 PM ET): LHP CC Sabathia (vs. Angels) vs. RHP Felix Pena (vs. Yankees)

Pena has been the Angels’ best healthy starter, sporting a 4.15 ERA through four starts, though he’s also only accumulated 17 1/3 innings. His control has been more suspect than last year, leading baseball with three HBPs while his walk rate has climbed by 2.4 percent in a small sample.

He’s actually outperformed his peripherals. He allows plenty of hard contact and has an FIP of 6.21 thanks to more than two homers per nine and just 14 strikeouts this season.

Pena attacks with a low-90s fastball half the time and then uses his low-80s curve another 40 percent of the time, using his changeup the rest of the way.

Pena. (Baseball Savant)

Thursday (9:07 PM ET) RHP Masahiro Tanaka (vs. Angels) vs. RHP Trevor Cahill (vs. Yankees)

Cahill finally did it last season: He beat the Yankees. After six disastrous outings previously, he allowed just three runs over five innings to top the Bombers last Labor Day. That lowered his ERA against the Bombers to … 10.09. Yikes.

However, much of his history with the Yankees came against players long gone or off the roster. Luke Voit homered in one of two ABs against him last year while Brett Gardner has reached seven times.

Maybe this Yankee lineup can shake him out of an early-season malaise. Cahill has allowed a league-high eight home runs while otherwise looking like the successful starter from a year ago. Primarily a groundball pitcher, he’s allowed more flyballs than grounders this year. The right-hander has gone to his offspeed stuff more often than ever, using his fastball just 40 percent of the time.

Cahill. (Baseball Savant)

Bullpen Status

Anaheim carries eight relievers with former Indians reliever Cody Allen taking closing duties. Like in Cleveland, he’s been shaky with walks but remains the closer for now. That role could change after he allowed a homer to his only batter Sunday.

The Angels have only righties in their pen. Cam Bedrosian, Hansel Robles, Luis Garcia and Ty Buttrey work in middle relief with Buttrey and Garcia combining to allow just one run in 18 2/3 innings. Noe Ramirez had been going well until allowing four runs in 1 2/3 innings yesterday.

Luke Bard (yes, Daniel’s brother) and Taylor Cole are lower leverage relievers for the club

Keys for the series

Starting off strong

With a full lineup worth of hitters on the injured list, the Yankees are reliant on their starting pitching. Luckily, based on the last week, that is starting to round into shape. They need to stay strong in Angel Stadium and deal with …

Trout

This is obvious, but you can’t let Trout beat you. Add to his league-leading walk total if you must, but don’t let him beat you. Force Simmons, Pujols and Bour to knock you out. This is so much easier said than done.

Health

Can we go one series without another major injury? Is that too much to ask?

Filed Under: Series Preview Tagged With: Los Angeles Angels, Mike Trout

4/18 to 4/21 Series Preview: Kansas City Royals

April 18, 2019 by Steven Tydings

We are all Whitnesses. (Getty Images)

After two games with the Red Sox, the Yankees close out their homestand with four games against the last-place Royals.

Their Story So Far

Kansas City is just four years removed from winning the World Series, but you wouldn’t know it looking at the roster. On the 25-man roster, only Alex Gordon remains. The Royals’ record, 6-12 coming into Thursday’s action, reflects the overhaul as the team goes into another rebuild.

Their offense has been right near league average with a 99 wRC+ while leading baseball with 20 stolen bases. Their pitching staff is more of a problem. The Royals’ 5.34 collective ERA is tied for 24th in all of baseball while the bullpen has a 6.37 ERA, third-worst in MLB.

Injury Report

Catcher Salvador Perez is out for the season with Tommy John surgery while pitchers Trevor Oaks and Jesse Hahn are on the 60-day IL with hip and elbow issues, respectively.

On the 10-day IL, starter Danny Duffy is working his way back from left shoulder tightness and is making a rehab start this weekend. Reliever Brian Flynn is out with left elbow soreness.

Players Spotlight: Alex Gordon and Whit Merrifield

If you’ve heard one thing about the Royals this season, it was likely about Merrifield surpassing 30 games with his hitting streak dating back to last season. However, there’s more to Whit than just hitting. He’s able to play all over the field. He hits for average, not too much power, and steals a lot of bases. He led the American League in steals each of the past two seasons. He’s everything you want in a leadoff hitter.

Meanwhile, Gordon has had a late-career resurgence starting with the last two months of 2018. He still struggles against same-sided pitchers, but he’s hitting .339 with a 1.008 OPS to begin the season, hitting three homers after just 22 over the last two seasons. In his final year under contract, Gordon would be valuable even if his bat was falling flat; Gordon is a wizard in the field, having won six Gold Gloves in left field, including the last two years.

Potential Lineup

  1. Whit Merrifield, 2B (.320/.350/.493, 123 wRC+)
  2. Adalberto Mondesi, SS (.254/.289/.507, 106 wRC+)
  3. Alex Gordon, LF (.339/.427/.581, 172 wRC+)
  4. Hunter Dozier, 3B (.298/.388/.596, 160 wRC+)
  5. Ryan O’Hearn, 1B (.163/.339/.306, 83 wRC+)
  6. Jorge Soler, RF (.221/.284/.471, 99 wRC+)
  7. Lucas Duda, DH (.200/.359/.433, 111 wRC+)
  8. Martin Maldonado, C (.174/.269/.239, 43 wRC+)
  9. Billy Hamilton, CF (.213/.283/.213, 39 wRC+)

The team has some positional flexibility with Dozier and Duda able to man first base and Merrifield able to play middle infield or all around the outfield. Chris Owings is a utility player while backup catcher Cam Gallagher and pinch runner/outfielder Terrance Gore man the bench.

Junis. (Getty Images)

Pitching Matchups

Thursday (6:35 PM ET): RHP Domingo German vs. RHP Homer Bailey

Bailey seems like he’s been around forever, but he’s just 32 years old, having spent much of the last four seasons on the disabled list. From 2015-18, he started just 46 games for the Reds, going 9-27 with a 6.25 ERA in 231 2/3 innings.

The veteran righty has been able to avoid the IL this season, but the results haven’t changed. He brings a 5.29 ERA into this series with three home runs in 17 innings. His strikeout rate has been surprisingly prolific, fanning 21 in those 17 frames after just 75 strikeouts over 106 1/3 innings last season.

He still works with a 93 mph heater while going offspeed about half the time with his mid-80s splitter his key secondary offering. He’ll also mix in a slow curve and a hard slider.

Clint Frazier and Brett Gardner are 4-for-7 with a walk against Bailey. German has only faced Maldonado, who he struck out in 2017.

Bailey (Baseball Savant)

Friday (7:05 PM ET): LHP CC Sabathia (vs. Royals) vs. RHP Jakob Junis (vs. Yankees)

This matchup comes in with an unfortunate narrative already baked in: Junis is the pitcher who hit Aaron Judge in the wrist last summer and caused him to miss more than a month of games. The HBP didn’t appear intentional, yet Junis got death threats for injuring the Yankee slugger.

On the mound, he’s been a bit unlucky this season. The right-hander has pitched to a 3.55 FIP but has a 6.14 ERA. His strikeout rate has improved in each of his three MLB seasons — he’s at 24.5 percent through four starts — while his walk rate has hovered around six percent.

Junis faced the Yankees twice last season, beating them in Kansas City before getting pounded for seven runs in the Bronx. The big blow in the New York start was a grand slam by Didi Gregorius. Get well soon, Didi!

Junis. (Baseball Savant)

Saturday (1:05 PM ET): Masahiro Tanaka (vs. Royals) vs. Heath Fillmyer (vs. Yankees)

Fillmyer has been thrust into the Royals’ rotation with Duffy on the mend and will be making his third start of the season Saturday. He struggled against the upstart Mariners in his first appearance before settling down with an OK start (three runs, one walk, two Ks in five innings) against the White Sox.

The young right-hander works off a low-90s fastball and sinker with 20 percent sliders, 13 percent curves and 14 percent changeups. Statcast doesn’t rate him well as he’s allowed a bottom third percentile exit velocity (93.6 mph) in his eight innings and has a low strikeout and hard hit rate. Let’s see a larger sample before making definitive judgment.

Fillmyer is a local product. He is from Roebling, N.J. and attended Mercer County Community College, not too far from the Yankees’ Double-A affiliate Trenton Thunder.

Fillmyer (Baseball Savant)

Sunday (1:05 PM ET) James Paxton (vs. Royals) vs. Jorge Lopez (Never faced Yankee batters)

Lopez is a product of the Royals’ rebuild, coming over in the Mike Moustakas trade in July. The 26-year-old starter actually debuted in the Majors for Milwaukee in 2015 but didn’t get an extended opportunity to start until after the traded.

Like seemingly everyone in baseball, he’s struck out more batters this season while being prone to the long ball. Extremely prone. He’s allowed six homers in 23 innings. The White Sox produced five of the those homers across his two starts against the Southsiders. Still, he produced a career-high 10 strikeouts in his last outing in Chicago.

Lopez has a fastball averaging 93 mph (down one mph from last season) and turns to that and his sinker about half of the time, filling in the gaps mostly with his low-80s curveball.

Lopez. (Baseball Savant)

Bullpen Status

Though there are many, if you want to pinpoint one weakness on the roster, it’s the bullpen. Kansas City leads baseball in losses where the team held the lead, though the Yankees aren’t far behind. Their starters outside Brad Keller, who the Yankees miss, have been middling to bad and the bullpen hasn’t been much better.

Kansas City’s eight-man bullpen has a clear division with four veterans and four youngsters. Right-handers Wily Peralta and Brad Boxberger are relievers with late-inning bona fides while Ian Kennedy has transitioned from the rotation to the bullpen. Left-hander Jake Diekman can work as a matchup lefty or get RHBs out. Of those pitchers, Kennedy has had the best start to the season while Peralta and Boxberger have ERAs above 7.00.

On the young side, right-handers Glenn Sparkman and Jake Newberry have had poor starts in limited innings while second-year righty Scott Barlow has been a pleasant surprise with a 2.57 ERA over seven innings. Lefty Richard Lovelady debuted earlier this April and has a 16.20 ERA in 1 2/3 innings.

Keys for the weekend

Take Three of Four (or More)

The Royals have the second-worst record in the American League (Boston is worse) and they’ve played like it. The Yankees need to keep winning series, home or away, against inferior competition if they want to make up their early deficit to Tampa Bay.

Speeding Tickets

Kansas City can run. Merrifield led baseball in stolen bases last season while Hamilton has 264 stolen bases over the last five seasons. Off the bench, Gore has been known for his pinch-running prowess. With pitchers like Adam Ottavino not known for holding runners, KC could feast this weekend.

Filed Under: Series Preview Tagged With: Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals, Whit Merrifield

Scouting the DFA Market: Blake Swihart and Brad Miller

April 17, 2019 by Steven Tydings

Swihart. (Getty Images)

Two American League division favorites designated a potentially useful bat for assignment in the last couple days. If the Yankees were fully or nearly healthy and performing, there wouldn’t be a role for either Blake Swihart or Brad Miller. The 2019 Yankees, however, may have the room for another offensive player.

So let’s see how Swihart and Miller stack up and could fit for the Yankees:

Blake Swihart

Despite an OK start at the plate, catcher/utility man Blake Swihart was DFA’d by the Red Sox on Tuesday before the first Yankees-Sox game of the season. Swihart has been in no man’s land for the last year, out of options but without a clear path to playing time despite the promise in his bat.

The 27-year-old backstop ranked 17th in Baseball America’s prospect rankings before the 2015 season (18th by MLB Pipeline) and it was his third time in BA’s rankings. Swihart looked like he could be a switch-hitting catcher who could be the full package on both sides of the ball. He was the No. 1 Red Sox prospect and No. 1 catching prospect in all of baseball.

After five seasons of getting jerked into different roles, Swihart finally got some semblance of normalcy as the backup catcher this season. He had six hits in his first 12 at-bats before an 0-for-14 skid ended his time in Boston.

His 88.3 mph exit velocity is right around league average, though his .364 xwOBA and 42.1 percent hard-hit rate indicates there may be more in his bat. He strikes out about a fourth of the time while sporting a walk rate near seven. Despite his switch-hitting, he should be a strict platoon bat as he fails to hit near average against left-handed pitching.

His defense leaves something to be desired. He has gotten better as a pitch framer and is league average, but Boston chose to upgrade defensively with Sandy Leon.

If we were a little later in the year, the Yankees’ poor record could help them in waiver priority, but as we are still in the first 30 days of the season, waivers go by last year’s standings. Oh well. There are enough team with questionable catching situations and the opportunity to let Swihart sink or swim that he should be claimed if the Red Sox can’t find a trade suitor.

Boston isn’t trading him to the Yankees. It’s not a tremendous loss, as the Bombers with a fully healthy Gary Sanchez don’t have a spot for him. If Sanchez were to miss an extended period, Swihart would be an upgrade over Kyle Higashioka at the plate and could enter into a platoon with Austin Romine. No, he’s not an improvement on Romine, at least not based on what he’s shown in the majors thus far. It’s a pipe dream that he’d join the Yankees, but hey, it’s not the craziest thing to happen.

Miller. (Getty Images)

Brad Miller

Miller, on the other hand, could actually find his way to pinstripes. That’s just my speculating — there hasn’t been reported interest on the Yankees’ part as of now — but the veteran infielder would be a temporary improvement for New York’s lineup.

The Indians DFA’d Miller with Jason Kipnis getting healthy, though Cleveland also did it in order to only give Miller the prorated portion of his $1 million contract instead of fully guaranteeing it by rostering him for a few more weeks. Miller’s 97 OPS+ and .742 OPS ranked third for the Indians’ paltry offense.

Cleveland was playing Miller at second base — he’s played everywhere on the infield in his career — but the Yankees wouldn’t have a need for him there. He doesn’t have the glove to man the middle infield all that well and is best confined to first base. He’s three years removed from hitting 30 homers for the Rays as a poor fielding shortstop.

Well, the Yankees have an opening at first. Greg Bird’s injury led to a call-up for Mike Ford, who has the potential to catch fire for a little while but is unlikely to last. Miller, meanwhile, has been a near-league-average hitter with some pop and has played a passable first base in his career. That’s not a ringing endorsement, but it’s an improvement over Bird’s lackluster season.

Miller would be available for $1 million via waivers or near league minimum in free agency and there aren’t many suitors for his services outside of the Yankees. There are enough DH at-bats (or first base ABs if you place Luke Voit at DH) free until the Yankees’ get healthy that he’d have a role right away.

There’s no need to wait for him to get back like another free agent signing. If he doesn’t hit or enough of Hicks/Stanton/Andujar/Sanchez get healthy, Miller could be jettisoned as quickly as he came in. But he does provide some upside as a former 30-home run hitter who does just enough with the bat to justify his lack of glove.

Filed Under: Trade Deadline Tagged With: Blake Swihart, Brad Miller, Scouting The Market

4/16 to 4/17 Series Preview: Boston Red Sox

April 16, 2019 by Steven Tydings

Always Betts on Mookie. (Getty Images) 

Which is a worse sign: Playing poorly with your same team as last year or playing poorly with a similar team that is riddled with injuries? Welcome to Yankees-Red Sox 2019.

Their Story Thus Far

After winning 108 games and the World Series a year ago, the Red Sox slump into Yankee Stadium with a 6-11 record. They have the worst run differential in the AL at -32 runs and have given up 6.24 runs per game. Their bullpen has actually been middle of the pack while their starting pitching has let them down with a 7.17 ERA, the worst in baseball. Only David Price (3.79) has an ERA under 7.98 within their regular rotation.

Meanwhile, Boston’s lineup has been disappointing. J.D. Martinez is, more ore less, duplicating his results of a year ago while Xander Bogaerts and Mitch Moreland are both off to hot starts. However, Mookie Betts hasn’t been his All-Star/MVP self (more on that below) while Jackie Bradley Jr. hasn’t hit a lick. In total, the offense that set the world on fire in 2018 in 23rd in the league with an 83 wRC+.

Player Spotlight: Mookie Betts

Through 17 games, Betts hasn’t quite hit like himself. For Boston, that’s OK; it’s only mid-April. The question, however, is whether Betts will return to his 2016/2018 MVP-esque level or will be the 2015/2017 All-Star deserving version of himself.

The 26-year-old outfielder has six extra-base hits and has a .222 average a year after winning the batting title. Part of that is simply BABIP luck: He has a .229 BABIP after a .368 mark a year ago.

Yet, there are some underlying questions. His walk rate is right in between his 2017 and ’18 marks, though it’s still impressive at 12.2 percent. His strikeouts, meanwhile, have continued to rise as a mildly alarming trend. His average exit velocity is down from 92.2 in 2018 to 90.0 mph this season.

Perhaps Betts is just a hot week from re-establishing himself. With plenty of struggling players surrounding him, Boston could use the boost. Five of his eight hits have gone for extra bases in 36 ABs against Wednesday starter J.A. Happ.

Injury Report

Andrew Benintendi (foot contusion) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (flu) were both held out of the Patriots’ Day game and are day-to-day. Brock Holt (scratched cornea) should begin a rehab assignment this week while reliever Brian Johnson is on the 10-day IL with elbow inflammation.

Potential Lineup

  1. Andrew Benintendi, LF (.293/.364/.448, 117 wRC+)
  2. Mookie Betts, RF (.222/.324/.413, 94 wRC+)
  3. Steve Pearce, 1B (.125/.176/.125, -23 wRC+)
  4. J.D. Martinez, DH (.344/.417/.563, 159 wRC+)
  5. Xander Bogaerts, SS (.304/.403/.500, 143 wRC+)
  6. Rafael Devers, 3B (.254/.343/.305, 81 wRC+)
  7. Dustin Pedroia, 2B (.105/.150/.105, -39 wRC+)
  8. Jackie Bradley Jr., CF (.149/.196/.170, -7 wRC+)
  9. Christian Vazquez, C (.195/.233/.415, 58 wRC+)

Though the Yankees are starting two lefties, I doubt Pearce starts over Moreland (151 wRC+) in both games. Bradley’s illness could open the door for Pearce or Martinez to play the outfield and Moreland to man first.

Oh my god! We’re having a fire … Sale. (Getty Images) (They can’t fire me for puns, right?)

Pitching Matchups

Tuesday (6:35 PM ET) James Paxton (vs. Red Sox) vs. Chris Sale (vs. Yankees)

Sale’s dreadful beginning to 2019 has been one of the biggest stories not just for the Red Sox, but for baseball. The lanky lefty received a $145 million extension this offseason and the Red Sox treated him carefully this spring, cutting down on his workload after he ended 2018 later than ever (the Fall Classic will do that) and with shoulder issues.

Boston lined him up to start in this series. The Sox did the same thing a year ago and it was intimidating. Now, with Sale owning a 9.00 ERA, a 7.31 FIP and an alarming drop in swinging strikes, it could be an opportunity for the Bombers.

His velocity on his four-seamer is down 3.4 mph from 2018 to just 91.3 mph in three starts. Now, his velo was down to start 2018, but not nearly this much and hitters have made him pay. He got his first swinging strike on a fastball in his third start and has a 6.5 percent K-BB rate after posting a 31.9 percent mark from 2017-18 to lead baseball by a healthy margin.

It isn’t just the velocity; His command has also been suspect. Rachael McDaniel detailed it well for Fangraphs, but he hasn’t had good location on his slider, leaving it up in the zone. Can he regain his fastball, slider and his season? The Yankees, or what’s left of them, will be a tough test.

Sale (Baseball Savant)

Wednesday (6:35 PM ET) J.A. Happ (vs. Red Sox) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (vs. Yankees)

Just like Sale, Eovaldi had the Yankees’ number a year ago and beat them in the postseason. I don’t need to remind you about ALDS Game 3, right? Good.

Well, Eovaldi has arguably been worse than Sale this season. He’s allowed six home runs in 15 innings, going just five innings in each of his three starts. He has 10 strikeouts and 10 walks, an 8.40 ERA and a 9.22 FIP.

The velocity on his four-seamer and cutter (high and low 90s, respectively) are about the same as last season with his splitter and slider down a couple of mph and curveball up half a mph. Still, batters have beat up on his signature cutter, owning a .941 slugging percentage against his second-most-used pitch.

Again, he was especially good against the Yanks last season, so the matchup favors him, but Eovaldi has had a rough 2019 thus far.

Eovaldi (Baseball Savant)

Bullpen Status

As you likely know, Alex Cora doesn’t have an established closer, instead mining for matchups without Craig Kimbrel under contract. Here’s my best guess as to how the bullpen hierarchy works:

Highest leverage: Ryan Brasier and Matt Barnes

Medium to high leverage: Brandon Workman, Heath Hembree and Tyler Thornburg, in descending order of average leverage index this season

Medium to low leverage: Colten Brewer and Erasmo Ramirez.

Long man/spot starter: Hector Velazquez

Velazquez started and went three innings in Patriots’ Day game Monday, so he’s likely unavailable for series. Brewer and Ramirez, the latter just called up, are newer names and have had mixed results for Boston thus far. (Ramirez has previously served as a starter and can provided length out of the bullpen.) Brasier and Barnes, meanwhile, have been strong, as has Brandon Workman who has yet to give up a run.

Brewer, Workman, Hembree and Thornburg each threw one inning Monday and should be available to relieve Sale on Tuesday if the need arises.

Keys to watch

Sale’s slider

Watching on TV, Sale’s velocity will be a constant topic of conversation. I’d guess it’ll still be hovering in the low 90s. But the focus, at least to me, should be on his slider command. If he can get his back-foot slider going to righties, the left-hander can still be effective at lower velocity. If he can’t locate it, the Yankees should tee off.

Calling on quality

Can the Yankees get a quality start? They’ve gotten three this season and neither Happ nor Paxton have completed six innings.

Quality starts as a stat are clunky, but the lack of QSs underline an issue for New York: They’re getting very little length out of their starters, 4.84 innings per start, to be exact. With Dellin Betances out and Chad Green struggling to perform, the team can’t afford to overload its bullpen, no matter its preseason hype. Six innings from either Paxton or Happ would be an upgrade.

Filed Under: Series Preview Tagged With: Boston Red Sox, Mookie Betts

4/12 to 4/14 Series Preview: Chicago White Sox

April 12, 2019 by Steven Tydings

The hottest hitter in baseball, Tim Anderson. (Getty Images)

Sweeps, sweeps are no fun unless you brought one for everyone. Luckily, both the Yankees and White Sox were swept to start the week, so something has to give.

Their Story So Far

At 3-8, the White Sox have the second-worst record in the American League, only ahead of the Royals. They come into Friday’s action having lost five straight to the Mariners and Rays. In 11 games, the Southsiders have allowed 77 runs, an alarming seven per game.

What makes the White Sox interesting? Shortstop Tim Anderson is hitting .514 through 38 plate appearances. Eloy Jimenez is the second-most-hyped rookie in the AL and Yoan Moncada still has some high upside. Jose Abreu may be the best first-base upgrade available on the trade market this summer. If you’re looking for pitching potential, look to their IL or the Minor Leagues.

Injury Report

Top pitching prospect Michael Kopech is recovering from Tommy John surgery after his elbow blew out in his first month in The Show last season. He’s done for the year.

Meanwhile, RHP Ian Hamilton (right shoulder inflammation) and journeyman outfielder Jon Jay (right hip strain) are on 10-day injured list.

Pitching Matchups

The Yankees haven’t announced starters for Friday and Sunday, so I tried to fill in the blanks.

Friday (7:05 PM ET): J.A. Happ (vs. White Sox) vs. Lucas Giolito (vs. Yankees)

Since the start of 2018, here is where Lucas Giolito ranks among qualified starters

  • 2nd worst in fWAR (0.2)
  • Worst ERA (6.10)
  • 2nd worst FIP (5.44)
  • 2nd worst xFIP (5.32, behind only teammate Reynaldo Lopez)
  • 2nd worst walk rate (11.6%)
  • Worst K-BB rate (5.1%)

Giolito has been positively dreadful since a promising Chicago debut in 2017. He’s still just 24 years old, but the numbers are staggering. The 6-foot-6 right-hander has the height of a Yankees reliever but nowhere near the results. His strikeouts have increased in the small sample of 2019, but he’s still walking more than four per nine.

He sits around 93 mph with his fastball he throws more than half the time while using a changeup, curve and slider nearly equally among offspeed offerings. The four-seamer has a significant rise in spin rate (2094 rpm in 2018 vs. 2197 rpm in 2019), though that may be a tracking error with him eschewing his lower-spin sinker.

Giolito (Baseball Savant)

Saturday (1:05 PM ET): CC Sabathia (vs. White Sox) vs. Ivan Nova (vs. Yankees)

Welcome back my friend to the show that never ends. Since Nova was traded from New York in 2016, he’s had one appearance against the Yanks, beating them in Pittsburgh the following April. This will be his triumphant return to the Bronx.

Nova is now a veteran innings eater after turning 32 in January. He had one great start (7 IP, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 K) vs. the Indians and one awful one against the world-beating Mariners. I don’t know if you can really judge him based off those results, though his velocity is down about one mph across the board, his fastball sitting at 91.7 mph.

He hasn’t changed his approach too much from his time in New York, still throwing fastballs and sinkers about two-thirds of the time. However, he’s lessened his curveball usage this year and re-introduced his slider, which he hasn’t used since 2012-13. He also uses his mid-80s changeup more often than ever at 11.5 percent.

Nova (Baseball Savant)

Sunday (1:05 PM ET) Domingo German (vs. White Sox) vs. Carlos Rodon (vs. Yankees)

If the White Sox have an above-average starter, it’s Rodon. The former No. 3 overall pick is now an arbitration-eligible veteran of 26 years old in his fifth year in the bigs.

In the past, he’s been a four-pitch starter: Four-seamer, slider, changeup and sinker. This season, he’s reduced it to two, throwing the four-seamer and slider for nearly 94 percent of his pitches. It’s led to a dramatic increase in his strikeout rate with 24 in 16 innings, though his walks are still around four per nine. This change in his arsenal could be the fix that unlocks his potential, or it could be a red herring of early season results.

Through three starts, he has a 3.38 ERA and has struck out at least six batters in each outing. However, he walked five in the last game against Tampa after just one in each of his first two starts. Last Aug. 27, Rodon held the Yankees to two hits (and four walks) over seven innings to earn a victory in the Bronx. Now New York can get some revenge.

Rodon (Baseball Savant)

Potential Lineup

  1. Leury Garcia, RF (.325/.357/.375, 106 wRC+)
  2. Tim Anderson, SS (.514/.526/.730, 255 wRC+)
  3. Jose Abreu, DH (.196/.245/.435, 81 wRC+)
  4. Yonder Alonso, 1B (.121/.326/.212, 69 wRC+)
  5. Wellington Castillo, C (.095/.367/.095, 69 wRC+)
  6. Yoan Moncada, 3B (.319/.360/.617, 166 wRC+)
  7. Eloy Jimenez, LF (.279/.326/.302, 79 wRC+)
  8. Jose Rondon, 2B (.250/.318/.500, 123 wRC+)
  9. Adam Engel, CF (.133/.133/.400, 31 wRC+)

This is a lineup more designed for a left-handed starter. With a righty on the mound, you can guarantee Alonso will be in the lineup while Castillo moves down, Moncada moves up and LH slugger Daniel Palka (0-for-25 this year) often joins the starting nine. Also on the bench is catcher James McCann (101 wRC+) and INF Yolmer Sanchez (-35 wRC+).

Bullpen Status

The White Sox have a veteran duo at the end of their bullpen with Alex Colome closing and Kelvin Herrera setting up. Beyond those two righties, famed Hamilton rival right-hander Ryan Burr, 33-year-old righty Nate Jones and left-hander Jace Fry sit in middle relief.

In long relief, the White Sox right now have rookie Jose Ruiz and veteran Manny Banuelos, who, shameless plug, I wrote about earlier this week after a stellar outing. After optioning former Yankees prospect Caleb Frare on Thursday, they’ll likely call up a fresh bullpen arm for the series.

If we see a lot of Colome and Herrera, it’s a bad sign for the Yankees. That gives you even more reason to root for Banuelos to make his Yankee Stadium debut.

Matchups to watch

Yankees against beatable starters
After facing three strong starters in Houston, the Yankees get a gift with the White Sox in town. They don’t get their two worst starters thus far, Reynaldo Lopez and Ervin Santana, but the top three aren’t a ton better. The middle of the bullpen is ripe for the picking, but the Bombers have to get there first.

Adam Engel vs. the wall
Please. Stop. Robbing. Yankee. Homers.

(MLB)

Filed Under: Series Preview Tagged With: Chicago White Sox

The hidden glory of Greg Golson

April 12, 2019 by Steven Tydings

One shining moment. (Getty Images)

Greg Golson is known to Yankee fans for one incredible throw in 2010. However, despite the greatness of that moment, there was more to his baseball story.

‘Nothing he can’t do’

Golson was drafted 21st overall in the first round of the 2004 MLB Draft by the Phillies. A five-tool prospect, Golson describes himself as not raw but needing development. The Texas high schooler had blazing speed and a cannon of an arm. His bat and power were expected to come along with Baseball America saying “there’s really nothing he can’t do” in their scouting report.

“I had this style of play that was kind of reckless abandon, all out; I think that’s what the Phillies liked about me,” Golson told River Avenue Blues. “But I think I needed to stop thinking so much at the plate.”

Golson slowly worked his way up through the Phillies’ system, hitting as many as 13 home runs in a season and stealing up to 30 bases. He even got a cup of coffee and six at-bats in September for the 2008 World Series champions. However, he couldn’t put it all together before he was traded to Texas after the season. The outfielder was designated for assignment by the Rangers after 2009 and landed with the Yankees in a trade.

Though he would make the Show with the Yankees as well, he never got the opportunity to be a regular, partially due to the misfortune of playing for three teams in the midst of postseason windows.

“I think that’s more, I wouldn’t say to blame, but that’s more of the cause of me not getting an opportunity to play every day,” Golson said. “There was an emphasis on winning once I got up and there was no room for a rookie to figure out his way.”

Wearing Pinstripes

Golson received his first call-up to the Yankees on May 4, playing in one game before getting optioned three days later. He hadn’t been hitting all that well in Triple-A to that point, but Alfredo Aceves hit the shelf with a bulging disk on May 12, getting Golson right back up the to the Majors.

“I’m at my rental property in Scranton and I get a call from my manager saying, ‘Hey, you’re going to the big leagues,'” Golson recalled. “At the time, I was hitting .210, I hadn’t made the adjustment at the plate, so I’m like, “What!? I’m going where? This is a joke, right?”

Though it was 1 a.m. right after a game, Golson quickly got packed with excitement and boarded a plane to Detroit, meeting the Yankees before a game with the Tigers. He was 0-for-7 in his MLB career before the matchup and entered as a defensive replacement for Marcus Thames. In the ninth inning, he got the plate and smacked a single for his first career hit.

Golson remembers getting the clubhouse after the hit, “I wouldn’t say I was walking, I was floating.” His favorite player growing up was Derek Jeter, who came up to him.

“Jeter is like, ‘That’s your first hit, man? We need to celebrate.’ I’m like, ‘Nah, I need to get some sleep.'”

Most people wouldn’t turn down an opportunity to celebrate with Jeter, his childhood hero, to catch some z’s. Instead, Golson recalls Jeter taking the rookie out to eat in Boston, “Not many people get to play with their childhood hero and then they take you out.”

Golson would get into four more games with his first Major League start before getting optioned down on May 17. He’d spend the summer in Scranton and he found his hitting stroke in the process with a solid .263/.313/.414 line despite a slow start.

“Looking back, that was probably the best time of my life. I was just on cloud nine,” he said. “You don’t need Advil, you don’t need any anti-inflammatories. You’re ready to go. Being around so many potential and future Hall of Famers, I learned a lot.”

With expanded rosters, the Bombers called up Golson in September and utilized him almost exclusively as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement. Nick Swisher was slowed by injuries and Brett Gardner also missed some time, creating an opening for Golson.

He went 0-for-2 in stealing bases during the 2010 season, but his defense did all the talking. With the combination of fabulous speed and a rocket arm, he was the perfect man to come in for Swisher, Austin Kearns or whomever manned the corner opposite Gardner.

“A lot of times I was hoping for Nick Swisher or Jorge Posada would get a single or a walk, so I could get into the game. I would never hope [the opponent] would tie it up, but I would just love to get an at-bat.”

Golson wanted the opportunity to show off his swing, spending plenty of time in the cages while in the Majors. Despite his best efforts, it would be a game in which he didn’t bat that gets remembered years later.

The Throw

The Yankees were fighting with the Rays for the AL East crown in 2010 and had a series in Tampa Bay in mid-September with a half-game lead going into it. New York didn’t have pressure to win the division with the wild card in hand. Furthermore, a wild card berth meant facing the Twins instead of the upstart Rangers in the ALDS.

Regardless, the Pinstripers lost Game 1 on a Reid Brignac walk-off homer. Game 2 on Sept. 14 was a wild affair with the Yankees see-sawing from up 6-0 in the top of the 5th inning to down 7-6 after the bottom half, before knotting the game at seven in the sixth.

It stayed that way into extra innings, though Golson entered in the ninth after Juan Miranda pinch hit for right fielder Colin Curtis, who was filling in for Swisher. Despite a desire to start, Golson was primed for filling-in after coming up with a National League team, thereby dealing with pitchers hitting and double switches.

It was just a few days before Golson’s birthday and his brother, who was stationed in Jacksonville, came down to watch him play at the Trop. Therefore, the 25-year-old outfielder was already loose simply with family in town and a Yankees uniform on his back. He came into the series knowing playing time was likely thanks to a lefty-laden Rays staff.

Though he’d done the proper cage work in game, he hadn’t gotten a chance to fully stretch out his arm. That’s where Gardner helped out.

“When I got in, Gardner was in left and he was saying, “Do you need to throw?” because I was throwing with Granderson in center,” Golson recalled. “… We backed up almost foul pole to foul pole and we were just long tossing so I could get my arm loose. It ended up paying off because it was pretty much the same distance that I ended up throwing to third to A-Rod.”

In the top of the 10th, Posada hit a solo home run to put the Yankees up, 8-7. That meant Mariano Rivera would have the chance to close things out in the 10th.

An inauspicious start met Mo with Carl Crawford singling through the right side.

“Once he got on base, I was like, “OK, I’m going to throw him out at home,”” Golson said. “That was the thought process because I always try to think of the toughest play before the play starts so I can have it in my mind in case it happens.”

Evan Longoria, ever the Rivera killer, flew out to deep center for the first out, though Crawford didn’t tag up. Crawford then stole second, though Golson remembers him being out before the ball came out of Jeter’s glove.

Matt Joyce stood at the plate and lifted a fly ball down the line to right, an easy catch for Golson but seemingly far enough to advance Crawford to third. This was, of course, prime Crawford, who stole 46 bags in 2010, down just five steals from a career-best 51 in 2009.

“When the ball went up, I know the first thing I thought was, ‘Just catch it. Don’t worry about getting behind it,'” Golson recalled. “It was going in and out of vision because of the roof.

Ah yes, the Tropicana roof. That explains why Golson ended up flat-footed after the catch instead of getting behind the ball. At the time, he was more worried about recording the first out and not letting the ball get away, thus making him the “butt of a lot of jokes.”

Still, flatfooted or behind the ball, Golson was ready when Crawford tagged up. He nailed the Rays’ speedster on a low line-drive of a throw and a good pick and tag by Alex Rodriguez.

Funny enough, Golson aimed his throw at Jeter, the cutoff man, and simply wanted the shortstop to snag it. Jeter realized there was a play at third and leaned out of the way.

“All I remember is getting high fives after that. I don’t remember anything after the moment but getting high-fives and pointing at A-Rod, saying, “Nice pick.”

Moving Forward and Looking Back

While that was Golson’s shining moment in pinstripes, he did make the Yankees’ postseason roster that fall. He made a shoestring grab to finish off another Rivera save in Game 1 of the ALDS, his only putout and opportunity in three postseason appearances.

The Yankees were eliminated by Golson’s old team, Texas, near where the Austin native grew up. After being designated for assignment and starting 2010 out with struggles at the plate, Golson didn’t expect the ride of the year to end. “Being a part of the postseason roster and playing in front of my family in my home state, on the Yankees.”

He would also briefly play for the 2011 Yankees, finishing with 35 plate appearances over the two seasons with eight hits, two RBI and a .235/.257/.294 batting line.

Golson bounced around between Double-A and Triple-A for the White Sox and Braves in 2012-13 before turning to independent league baseball. As for why he never made it back to The Show, Golson now sees some of what the younger version of himself couldn’t at the time and that he was too willingly pliable to coaches.

“I played with nine different organizations and every single one of them, as soon as I got there, it was, ‘This is what we’re going to do,’ and I had to figure out what worked for me.”

Golson began to figure out more about his game once he got out of affiliated ball, playing in Mexico, Venezuela and the Dominican Republic as well as stateside. Once there, he lost concern for how his game looked and his pedigree as a former first rounder and big leaguer.

“A lot of guys say it, but I really do wish I knew then what I know now.”

The 33-year-old is now finishing up a degree in health and wellness this August. When he first began taking classes online, he made it his goal to play until he got the degree and he’s been in the Atlantic and Mexican Leagues in recent seasons before joining the Texas AirHogs of the American Association last year. He’s a free agent for now, living in Denver and passing some baseball lessons on as an instructor.

Still, he can sometimes struggle to look back on his playing days. As a right-handed player for platoon purposes and coming through the systems of competitive teams, Golson didn’t get the chance he might have had on a rebuilding roster.

Think about it. He got into 40 MLB games and hat 42 plate appearances, something most of us have or will never experience, but it was just that, 40 games, never more than a month at a time. Therefore, Golson has gratitude for being able to live out his dream and play for the Yankees, yet he also wanted more.

“Being on the Yankees comes with that look [from people] of, “Why? Why was he on the Yankees?” That throw is something that people go and look up and they’re always like, “I saw your throw. That was awesome.”

“It’s really cool and it’s the defining moment of my career, so I hear about it a lot and I’m grateful that it happened. Again, I’m not going to say it was an albatross, but I just wish I could have done more with my career so there was more to give people, like I can hit, too.”

Filed Under: Days of Yore Tagged With: Greg Golson

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