River Avenue Blues

Trends to Watch as James Paxton Makes His Yankee Debut

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(Presswire)

When James Paxton takes the mound today for the Yankees’ second game of the season against the Orioles, he will do so as the marquee acquisition of the 2018 offseason. Paxton, who was acquired early in the offseason, almost became an afterthought following an often frustrating offseason despite his top-of-the-rotation talent. The reality, though, is that he is the biggest upgrade over the 2018 team: he boasts a 3.52 ERA (117 ERA+) from 2016-18 with excellent peripherals (10+ K/9, 2 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9) and overpowering stuff as a lefty.

The new Yankee has shown ace-like capability on the mound in Seattle; as both Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs and Zach Kram of The Ringer noted in November, Big Maple ranks near the top of the league in nearly every important statistical category on a per usage basis. The Yankees obviously expect more of the same from him, and perhaps even a bit more: despite his dominance, injuries have prevented Paxton from truly entering the ace conversation.

As Paxton prepares to make his Yankee debut, there are several areas on which every fan should keep their eye. Most all of them in some way are based on the tension between the Yanks’ anti-fastball approach and Paxton’s approach, and I’m really excited to see the dynamic play out. Let’s break this one down.

Fastball Usage

 The Yankees have a clear anti-fastball pitching philosophy, preferring instead for their pitchers to increasingly rely on off-speed stuff with movement instead of an over-reliance on fastballs. We’ve covered this extensively at RAB, and it’s something for which the Yankees are generally known – Sonny Gray even complained about it in an interview with The Athletic (subs req’d) last month.

Last year’s mid-season acquisitions of J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn, two pitchers who use their fastball at a higher percentage than nearly anyone else, bucked the trend, but it was reasonable to wonder if that’s just because they were the best available options amid a title pursuit. But the offseason acquisition of Paxton means that the last three pitchers the Yankees have brought on board all love to throw their fastball. Here are the five pitchers who most relied on their fastball in the 2018 season:

  1. Lance Lynn: 88.9%
  2. James Paxton: 81.5%
  3. David Price: 74.9%
  4. Jon Lester: 74.8%
  5. J.A. Happ: 73.3%

It will be really interesting to see how this dynamic plays out throughout 2019. As Mike noted in his reaction to the Paxton trade, the Yankees let both Happ and Lynn throw tons of fastballs after the deadline, so it’s no guarantee that they tinker with Paxton. Nevertheless, I suspect we’ll see Paxton rely more on his offspeed stuff than he ever did with Seattle. The Yanks have Paxton for at least the next two years and I don’t think they’re moving away from their anti-fastball approach: Lynn, Happ and Paxton have simply been the best available pitchers.

In any case, keep an eye out for Paxton’s fastball usage. As we’ll get into in the following sections, his fastball is a true weapon, and how he and the Yankees approach this year will be fascinating. It will offer an interesting insight into both the Yankees’ own internal philosophy, Paxton’s flexibility, and if he does make a change, whether it helps him take that next step to true acehood.

Aggressiveness

If they do make a change, it will also be interesting to see how relying more on offspeed pitches will impact Paxton’s approach – something that means a lot to him.

Paxton told The New York Times that while he isn’t big on advanced analytics, he has created a stat of his own to measure his success: the percentage of at-bats in which, after three pitches, the at-bat is already completed or Paxton leads with a 1-2 count. He calls it A3P – after three pitches – and it is a neat view into Paxton’s approach. He clearly values aggression and getting ahead in the counts, which might partially explain his reliance on the fastball.

There is a good reason for this, as controlling the count obviously gives the pitcher an advantage. Batters hit only .200/.235/.289 in 0-1 counts, .155/.194/.226 when it’s 1-2 counts and 127/.150/.183 in 0-2 counts against Paxton – and while every pitcher, obviously, will perform best in pitchers’ counts, Paxton becomes nearly unhittable even when just a strike ahead.

It sounds simple enough because it is. Aggression is something that every pitcher preaches – as do the Yankees themselves – but a year and a half of watching Sonny Gray tentatively approach hitters and nibble at the corners should prove that it’s not quite as easy as it sounds.

Relying more on off-speed stuff might draw out at-bats by putting Paxton behind in the count, or it might not matter at all. For today, at least, Paxton should have no problems: The Orioles are one of the league’s free-swinging teams and we should expect Paxton to attack their AAA lineup with confidence. Beyond his first start, though, how Paxton attacks the zone will be something to watch in 2019, and how effective he is at staying ahead will be indicative of his success.

Swing and Misses

Missing bats is the name of the game for pitchers: stop the batter from making contact and you’ve done your job. Paxton is one of the league’s best at missing bats, and that’s especially exciting given his status as a flame-throwing lefty. His stuff is simply nasty – especially the fastball we just talked about. Again, to the leaderboard, this time for whiffs-per-swing on fastballs:

  1. Jacob deGrom: 17.3%
  2. Justin Verlander: 15.8%
  3. Max Scherzer: 15.4%
  4. Gerrit Cole: 15.3%
  5. James Paxton: 13.7%
    MLB Average: 9.6% 

That’s some elite company, and it alone suggests that Paxton has legitimate ace upside. Moreover, Paxton is one of only six pitchers in the last decade to log at least 150 innings as a lefty and strike out 30% or more of the batters he faced. Paxton, in addition to missing bats, limits walks, allowing only 7% (2 per 9 innings pitched) of the batters he’s faced in his career to take a free bag. Couple that with a career 25.7% (10+ per 9 innings) strikeout rate, and you’ve got yourself a pitcher who can be a real difference-maker atop the Yankee rotation.

Again, it will be fascinating to see how these trends play out in 2019, especially if the Yanks and Paxton tinker with his approach. In any event, Paxton is one of baseball’s elite talents when it comes to making batters miss, and it’s worth paying close attention to in 2019 – especially if he mixes in more offspeed stuff.

Fly Ball Percentage

Finally, Paxton has historically limited home runs, allowing less than one per 9 in his career. (When you look at it this way, Paxton makes everyone swing and miss, limits walks, and never gives up home runs. How is he not a bigger story?) He did, of course, call Safeco Field T-Mobile Park home for his career until now, and Seattle is a known pitcher-friendly park. Yankee Stadium is not that.

Derek wrote an insightful piece exploring Paxton’s home run spike in 2018 (it climbed to 1.29 per 9) that you should read, but I wanted to pull out a few of the more interesting bits: turns out Paxton gave up a lot more fly balls (41%) than he did in 2017 (32.7%), largely a function of elevating his fastball. That explains at least some of the increase in homers, but it’s also possible that 2017, where he was unhittable, was a fluke. Time will tell, as they say.

I think it’s fair to expect Paxton to surrender more home runs in New York than he did in Seattle overall, but there are ways to mitigate even the Yankee Stadium impact: Paxton can continue to miss bats and keep the ball on the ground. It’s also worth noting that if the Yankees turn him away from his fastball, that might mean reduced elevation and fewer home runs.

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I have an extremely good feeling about the 2019 Yankees, and James Paxton is a big reason why. We always hear that the Yankees “need another pitcher,” even though that’s often not true, but the addition of Paxton is probably the Yankees most exciting starting pitching acquisition in some time. There is a lot to watch this year, especially related to Paxton’s fastball usage and how that impacts some of the key areas that have made him so effective. If he lives up to expectations or improves – and, if he’s healthy, I see no reason why he won’t remain one of the best in the game – James Paxton will play a big role in what has the potential to be a very big year in the Bronx.

Poll Results: The Antonio Cabello Watch

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The results are in and outfielder Antonio Cabello will be featured in this year’s Prospect Watch. I would classify this as an upset. I didn’t expect a rookie ball outfielder to beat out a higher level arm like Deivi Garcia, or a recent first round pick like Clarke Schmidt. Surprises are fun. Hooray for surprises.

Here are the final vote totals. This was our closest Prospect Watch vote basically ever:

  1. OF Antonio Cabello: 834 (22.6%)
  2. RHP Deivi Garcia: 703 (19.1%)
  3. C Anthony Seigler: 621 (16.8%)
  4. OF Everson Pereira: 460 (12.5%)
  5. RHP Clarke Schmidt: 411 (11.2%)
  6. RHP Jonathan Loaisiga: 250 (6.8%)
  7. RHP Albert Abreu: 248 (6.7%)
  8. RHP Roansy Contreras: 159 (4.3%)

Two years ago we set a Prospect Watch record with 5,433 votes. Last year it slipped to 4,868 votes and this year it slipped further to 3,686 votes. Part of that is me not leaving the poll up quite as long — two years ago the poll was up a full week — and I think part of it is decreasing enthusiasm for the Prospect Watch in general. We’ll see how this year goes and reevaluate after the season.

Anyway, Cabello may be a surprise Prospect Watch winner, but he is not some slouch prospect either. I ranked him as the fifth best prospect in the farm system and Keith Law recently wrote “Cabello has so much upside that I even had suggestions to put him in my top 100 (prospects list).” MLB.com ranks Cabello as the eighth best prospect in the system. Here’s a snippet of their scouting report:

Cabello has advanced discipline and bat-to-ball skills for a teenager. His bat speed and strength also give him plenty of raw power, which translated into him topping the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League with a .555 slugging percentage. He should develop even more pop as he adds more loft to his right-handed swing.

Cabello’s speed earns well-above-average grades from some evaluators, a major factor in the Yankees’ decision to move him from behind the plate. He’s still learning as a center fielder but should become at least an average defender once he improves his reads and routes. He has average arm strength and enough offensive ability to profile as a regular if he has to shift to a corner.

In a recent podcast (subs. req’d), the Baseball America team noted Cabello has drawn comparisons to Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Juan Soto for his innate hitting ability at the same age. That’s exciting. Last season the Cabello, 18, authored a .308/.427/.522 (168 wRC+) batting line with nine doubles, five homers, and ten steals in 46 rookie ball games. His strikeout (20.8%) and walk (14.1%) rates were also strong.

The downside? Cabello had offseason shoulder surgery, though he has been playing in minor league Spring Training games, which is a good sign. That tells us his recovery has gone well. At age 18 though, and coming off shoulder surgery, there’s a chance Cabello will open the season in Extended Spring Training, which means the Prospect Watch might sit silent for a few weeks. That would be a bummer, but what can you do?

The minor league regular season begins next Thursday and, with any luck, Cabello will be assigned to Low-A Charleston. It would be an aggressive assignment — Cabello will play the entire 2019 season at age 18 — but Cabello is a special prospect, and special prospects get aggressive assignments. Either way, I’m very much looking forward to following his progress.

Thoughts following Opening Day 2019

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Good doggie. (Sarah Stier/Getty)

The 2019 season has begun and the Yankees are undefeated. Granted, there are still 161 regular season games to go, but I’ll take being in first place after Opening Day any year. The other four AL East teams lost yesterday. The Yankees stand alone atop the division. Let’s hope they stay there all season and go wire-to-wire. Here are some thoughts (and overreactions) following the Opening Day win.

1. Yesterday was a textbook 2019 Yankees win. The offense powered the Yankees to an early lead, they got good enough starting pitching, and they smothered the other team with the bullpen in the late innings. Masahiro Tanaka was better than “good enough,” but I think you get my point. The Yankees put together tough at-bats all game — they averaged 4.21 pitches per plate appearance as a team yesterday, a number only 15 qualified hitters reached last year — and in only one inning did they fail to put a runner on base (the 7-8-9 hitters went down in order in the fourth). I get it, the Orioles are simply awful, and eventually the Yankees will play teams that can hang in and actually compete with them. The Yankees did what you want them to do against a bad team though, and the formula still applies. Lots of offense, good enough starting pitching, then bullpen them into oblivion. There are so many bad and rebuilding teams in the American League that I have to think we’re going to see a lot more games like yesterday’s throughout the season.

2. The Yankees are where they are as an organization largely because they’ve gotten much better at developing prospects. You can’t win these days without growing your own Aaron Judge or Luis Severino or Miguel Andujar. The Yankees are where they are because they’ve also been so good at identifying undervalued players in other organizations. The Didi Gregorius and Aaron Hicks trades were heists. Getting six years of Chad Green for three years of Justin Wilson was a great move. And now there’s Luke Voit as well. Imagine if this dude is truly for real and the Yankees turned two MLB roster bubble middle relievers (Chasen Shreve and Gio Gallegos) into a bona fide middle of the order masher? Good gravy. Trading Voit for nothing in particular, then giving up multiple prospects to get Paul Goldschmidt (and give him a big extension) feels like something the Yankees would have done in the early 2000s. Now they’re on the other end of that transaction. They’re getting the undervalued guy. Voit swung the bat twice yesterday and did not make an out — he’s currently hitting 1.000/1.000/4.000 (661 wRC+) — and he’s already one of the most popular players on the team. No one is beating Aaron Judge when it comes to crowd reaction. Those “LUUUKE” chants each time Voit came to the plate were awfully loud though. Didi and Hicks are two-way guys who play important up-the-middle positions. Those were masterful pickups. Getting a dude who straight mashes, even if he’s a full-time DH, is a heck of a pickup as well. Voit being for real would be amazing.

3. Maybe it’s just me being a giant Miguel Andujar homer (are we going with FANdujars or what?), but I was encouraged by his defense yesterday. Even with the throwing error. The throwing error came on a non-routine play and it is the type of play Andujar probably isn’t even in position to make last season. He ranged to his right (in foul territory) and made a strong overhand throw. I feel like we could count on one hand the number of times we saw that last season. More importantly, Andujar made a quick transfer on a potential 5-4-3 double play ball later in the game. Might as well GIF it up:

Last year Andujar’s transfer was sooo slow. My goodness. He waited for the ball come to him and often double-clutch before making the throw. On that play Andujar went and got the ball, and made a quick and accurate throw to second base. The runner, Drew Jackson, is crazy fast and was able to beat out the double play, but there was at least a chance at the out at first base. Last year, probably not. Too many times we saw Andujar take his time getting that ball to second base, and hey, maybe we’ll see him take his time getting the ball to second base going forward. That play might’ve been an anomaly. I guess we’ll find out. Andujar seemed to show a little more range and a little more urgency with his defense in Spring Training, and we saw something similar yesterday. This is a #thingtowatch.

4. It sure sounds like Adam Ottavino will be the fireman going forward. The guy who enters in the middle of an inning to snuff out a rally. He kinda sorta did that yesterday — Ottavino entered with a runner on second and two outs with a four-run lead, so it was hardly a dire situation, but it was the only point in yesterday’s game where it felt like the O’s had something going — and Aaron Boone indicated that will be Ottavino’s role. “Adam came in at a time in the game that was a big spot. We liked the lane he was coming into, and to go out there and kind of dominate, the way he’s done,” Boone said. Given the current bullpen personnel, Ottavino as the fireman is the best way to go. Pretty clearly, I think. He struck out 36.3% of the batters he faced last year, and given his current stuff, I am pretty confident that’s his true talent level. His true strikeout level might even be higher now that he’s in Year Two of his self-rebuild and with a smart, analytically inclined organization. Point is, Ottavino is the best bet to come in and miss bats, and that’s what you want when you’re in a sticky situation. Someone who can end an inning without a ball being put in play. Chad Green is really good, but his strikeout rate went from 40.7% in 2017 to 31.5% in 2018, and he’s predictable with all those fastballs. Jonathan Holder’s really good as well, but he’s not going to overpower anyone. Zack Britton seems locked into the eighth inning while Dellin Betances is out and, honestly, Britton has been too wild so far this year (even in Spring Training) for my liking. Once he starts throwing more strikes, we can add him to the fireman conversation. Right now, it should be Ottavino, and he was used accordingly yesterday.

5. I’m really looking forward to James Paxton’s debut tomorrow. As sports fans (this isn’t limited to Yankees fans), we have a tendency to compare current players to our favorite players of yesteryear. Melky Cabrera was going to be the next Bernie Williams, Greg Bird was going to be the next Don Mattingly, Jordan Montgomery was going to be the next Andy Pettitte, so on and so forth. I try to avoid those comparisons. Just let players be themselves and not worry about them being the next whoever, you know? That said, Paxton does remind me of Andy Pettitte more than anyone who’s gotten the “next Andy Pettitte” label over the years. Peak Andy Pettitte, I mean, not late-career Andy Pettitte. They’re both tall left-handers with a similar arm action who have above-average fastballs — the average fastball standard is higher now than it was in Pettitte’s heyday, obviously — and a good array of secondary pitches. Paxton throws his fastball more than Pettitte ever did, though my guess is we’ll see his fastball usage scaled back a little bit this year. I don’t think he’ll go full anti-fastball like Tanaka, but I think we’ll see him use his curveball and cutter a little more. It seems like there’s potential for improvement through pitch selection tweaks. We’ll see. The Orioles stink, so tomorrow’s results might be skewed, but I’m still looking forward to seeing Paxton in a meaningful game.

Mailbag: Tanaka, Paxton, Extensions Judge, Rendon, Sanchez

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Eleven questions in the first mailbag of the 2019 regular season. Send your questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com and I’ll answer as many as I can each week.

Tanaka. (Presswire)

Billy asks: With deGrom, Sale, Verlander and other starters getting extensions, would it be wise for the Yankees to extend Tanaka and Paxton now? What would be a fair extension for them?

It wouldn’t be a bad idea. An extension with Masahiro Tanaka might be tough because he’ll presumably have to take a pay cut with his next deal, and who wants to agree to a pay cut two years in advance? Including this season, Tanaka has two years and $45M coming his way. Would he take, say, two years and $34M (the J.A. Happ deal) on top of that? If yes, the Yankees would be able to announce it right away and reduce his luxury tax hit from $22.14M to $19.75M (average value of four years and $79M). I dunno. That one seems unlikely.

A James Paxton extension seems much more realistic. He’ll make $8.575M this year and will remain under team control as an arbitration-eligible player next year. The Cubs just gave Kyle Hendricks four years and $55M at the same service time level as Paxton. That deal begins in 2020, so include his $7.405M salary for 2019, and it is effectively a five-year deal worth $62.405M. Hendricks is a year younger than Paxton and he’s been healthier in his career to date, though that seems like a good reference point for an extension.

Given the Sonny Gray fiasco, I wouldn’t blame the Yankees for waiting it out just to make sure Paxton is someone they want to keep long-term. Then again, the Yankees signed Javier Vazquez long-term before he ever threw a pitch in pinstripes, and they had no trouble trading him. An extension for Tanaka might be tough now because it would presumably include a pay cut. A Paxton deal along the lines of the Hendricks deal? I’m down with that.

Pete asks: I don’t know if there’s any way to track/validate this, but it sure seems like contract extensions are being handed out more frequently now than ever before. Or are we just talking about them more?

Extensions are being handed out more frequently this year. Courtesy of the MLBTR Extension Tracker, here are the number of extensions signed from January 1st through April 1st (roughly Opening Day) the last few years:

  • 2019: 22 (eight by impending free agents)
  • 2018: 8 (none by an impending free agent, but Charlie Blackmon missed the cutoff by three days)
  • 2017: 14 (two by impending free agents)
  • 2016: 13 (two by impending free agents)
  • 2015: 13 (one by an impending free agent)

More impending free agents took themselves off the market with extensions since January 1st this year than did during the same time period from 2015-18 combined. Teams have weaponized free agency. Drive salaries down — the MLB average salary is on pace to decline for the second straight season, which is unprecedented — and make free agency as undesirable as possible, then leverage it into below-market contract extensions. This was the endgame.

Ross asks: Given the Yankees’ ability to increase value and turn low-level draft pitchers into prospects, should the Yankees’ draft as many pitchers as they reasonably can with the intent of using many of them to swap later, once their value is increased?

Roster spots are a finite resource. It’s a good plan, in theory, though they have to stash these guys somewhere. Extended Spring Training doesn’t last forever — whoever doesn’t get assigned to a roster at the end of ExST gets released — so there are only so many places to stash pitchers. Drafting pitchers and hoping they increase their trade value and can be moved before you run out of roster spots in mid-June is tough. The Yankees, like every other team, draft more pitchers than position players each year because there’s always a greater need on the mound. Realistically, I’m not sure they could go even heavier on arms without screwing up their minor league rosters. The Yankees have been pretty good at turning late round picks into tradeable commodities (Phil Diehl, Cody Carroll, Josh Rogers, Taylor Widener) the last few seasons. They could try to do it more, though roster limits are an obstacle.

Juan asks: The Yankees optioned Wade to AAA. If they trade him before the season starts and his new team puts him on the MLB roster, did he lose an option? Or does the option only get triggered if a played is demoted once the season begins?

A player has to spend 20 days in the minors to burn an option. They don’t have to be 20 consecutive days. Just 20 days throughout the season. In Juan’s scenario, Tyler Wade would keep his final option year, which is not necessarily good news for him. He’d presumably rather burn through his final option year and force the team to either keep him on the big league roster going forward, or expose him to other teams willing to put him on their big league roster.

Bill asks: To me, the trade for Tauchman is a real slap in the face to Wade. Wade played 6 positions in ST, hit well, and runs well. Isn’t Wade capable of playing CF if needed? Yankees should do him a favor and trade him. Thoughts?

No to doing Wade a favor and trading him. It is harsh but that is the business. I agree Wade could use a fresh start in an organization better able to give him a greater opportunity for consistent playing time. The Yankees are under no obligation to give him that fresh start though. He has a collectively bargained minor league option remaining and the Yankees are free to stash him in Triple-A as depth. Wade’s not the first player to have the rug pulled out from under him at the end of Spring Training — remember Francisco Cervelli after the Chris Stewart trade? also, the Orioles unexpectedly sent Chance Sisco to Triple-A after claiming Pedro Severino last week — and he won’t be the last. It sucks, but that’s the business.

Kyle asks: Why do Aaron Judge’s projections look awfully low? Fangraphs piece on right fielder power rankings had him second, but with a .255 average and a .517 slugging percentage, despite much better marks in over 1200 PA.

It’s the strikeouts. Aaron Judge is entering unicorn territory. Basically no one has been a true talent 30% strikeout guy and been this productive, especially this early in his career. Chris Davis had MVP caliber seasons in 2013 and 2014, though those were his fifth and sixth big league seasons. He didn’t arrive in the big leagues as that type of player like Judge. Projections are (largely) based on historical comparisons and Judge is short on comparable players. Most guys who strike out like Judge hit for a lower average with lots of power, which is how you get .255 AVG and a .517 SLG. Add in projections being inherently conservative and there you go.

Rendon. (Presswire)

Ian asks: So given Arenado signed his mega-deal, and the Yankees “may” have passed on Harper and Machado to make a run at him prior to his new contract, what do you think the chances are the Yankees are going to make a run at Anthony Rendon when he (maybe) hits FA after this season?

Not great, honestly. I thought Anthony Rendon was more likely to test free agency than Nolan Arenado was before his extension, mostly because Rendon is a Scott Boras client, and Boras usually pushes his top clients to free agency. My guess — and this is a total guess — is the Nationals will push hard to get a Rendon extension done (or push hard to re-sign him) after losing Bryce Harper. Letting MVP caliber guys walk in back-to-back offseasons seems pretty dumb for a win-now team, especially since they’re in position to reset their luxury tax rate this year, and Ryan Zimmerman’s contract will come off the books after the season. The Yankees would have to increase their payroll quite a bit to make Rendon work. Either that or skimp elsewhere and I’m not sure that’ll happen. Maybe Miguel Andujar settles in nicely at third base and the Yankees don’t need Rendon, but yeah, in theory, the Yankees should go after him. I’m skeptical it’ll happen at this point in time.

Emiliano asks: I wonder if minor league GM’s work for their team or for the franchise and what is their job considering that the franchise “owns” the players. Also, do they move up the ladder and land jobs and the big league level?

Minor league general managers work for their minor league team, not their MLB parent club. Triple-A Scranton’s general manager is Josh Olerud (no relation to John, I think). Double-A Trenton’s general manager is Jeff Hurley. Minor league general managers do what general managers in other industries do. They run the business. Marketing, ticket sales, stadium operations, public and media relations, all that. The general manager oversees it all. I’m sure minor league general managers move up the ladder. I mean, if you’re good at the job, teams at other levels are bound to notice. If you’re looking to become a big league general manager and make baseball decisions though, becoming a minor league general manager probably isn’t the best way to go. It’s the same title but minor league and Major League general managers have different job requirements and require different skills.

Ryan asks: If you could lock one Yankee starter in for say 180 IP and 3.00 ERA this season which one and why? Also- same for hitters but with 115 wRC+? No possibility to do better, but no possibility to be worse.

Gotta be CC Sabathia and Troy Tulowitzki, right? Sabathia’s the man and he is #ActuallyGood, though there’s no chance he’ll give the Yankees 180 innings this year. Sabathia as the 180 IP/3.00 ERA gives you a shot at three aces with Luis Severino and James Paxton. When your fourth and fifth guys are Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ, you’re in great shape. As for Tulowitzki, I think he is clearly the worst hitter in the lineup right now. It seems like he’s hit maybe three balls hard since those two home runs early in Spring Training. What do you do with Tulowitzki and his locked in 115 wRC+ when Didi Gregorius returns? Beats me. Worry about it when the time comes.

Dan asks: The Padres dfa of Bryan Mitchell and the cardinals of chasen shreve made me think, the Yankees are very good at passing along guys they’re done with. I’m thinking moving guys like Tyler Austin, Garrett cooper, ty clippard, even if for very little the Yankees get something. What are some recent examples of players that the Yankees couldn’t get anything for and had to straighten up release?

Not including journeymen who opted out of a minor league contract, the last Major League player the Yankees released was Chris Carter two years ago. Before him it was Tommy Layne a week earlier. They released Ike Davis in 2016 and Esmil Rogers in 2015. There were a lot of releases in the hell season of 2013. Ben Francisco, Clay Rapada, Brennan Boesch, Luis Cruz, guys like that. The last big name player the Yankees flat out released was Alfonso Soriano in 2014. Soriano was cooked and the Yankees couldn’t find a trade partner. Guys like Mitchell, Shreve, and Austin were at least young enough and interesting enough to drum up trade suitors. The Yankees are really good and also pretty deep, so inevitably the guys who don’t fit their roster tend to be better than the typical 24th or 25th man on other rosters, hence the trades.

Eric asks: This isn’t a real question, but I hope you’ll oblige! I don’t know how to make gifs, but I’m fairly sure you guys do. Can you post a gif of Gary watering that plant from the Yard Work commercial? I think all of the RAB faithful would love to save this to their phone.

I am a man of the people, so here is said GIF:

We’re going to get a lot of use out of that this season. The GIF comes from the team’s “Bronx Yard Work” promo commercial. It’s pretty funny. “Ottavino’s Nightmare” and “America’s Perchtime” were good too. Adam Ottavino’s a cool dude. Making fun of himself for the Babe Ruth comments rather than ducking the questions or giving cliched answers was a good way to go.

Yankees 7, Orioles 2: One down, 172 more wins to go

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Baseball is back and the Yankees are in first place, for at least one day. The Yankees opened the 2019 regular season with a 7-2 win over the Orioles at Yankee Stadium on Thursday afternoon. They’ve won back-to-back Opening Days for the first time since winning four straight from 2005-08. Also, the Yankees snapped Baltimore’s eight-game Opening Day winning streak, which was the longest active streak in baseball. Power, patience, bullpen. Opening Day was Yankees 101.

(Presswire)

Luke Is The O’s Father
Could you ask for a better start to the season? Brett Gardner struck out to start the bottom of the first inning, so that stunk, but the next three hitters took no prisoners. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton both slammed singles against the shift the other way, setting up Luke Voit for the first of what might be 300-something homers this year. For the Yankees, I mean. Not Voit personally. That’d be cool though.

Andrew Cashner left a little 87 mph nothingball out over the plate in a 3-1 count and Voit did what you’re supposed to do with 87 mph nothingballs in a 3-1 count. The first dinger of the new season cleared the windows of the Mohegan Sun Sports Bar in center field and gave the Yankees an early 3-0 lead. Please enjoy this very exciting sports highlight:

The exit velocity on Stanton’s single: 120.6 mph! It is the fifth hardest hit ball since Statcast became a thing in 2015. The first four belong to Stanton (two), Judge, and Gary Sanchez. That’s among all players too, not only Yankees. It just so happens the five highest (actually the nine highest) exit velocities in the Statcast era belong to current Yankees. I do indeed feel sorry for the baseballs.

Anyway, Voit’s homer checked in at a paltry 112.6 mph. He has a four-game homer streak dating back to the end of last regular season. Who knew? The Yankees sent five righties to the plate in the first inning and the Orioles shifted on all five. Three (Judge, Stanton, Sanchez) hit a single the other way, one put a dent in the bar (Voit), and the other hit a ball that was caught at the top of the left field wall for an out (Miguel Andujar). That’ll work, fellas.

The Substitute Opening Day Starter
In place of the injured Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka picked up the first Opening Day win in his MLB career. The Yankees lost his previous three Opening Day starts, largely because he allowed 14 runs in 12.1 innings. This Opening Day start went much better, and yes, Tanaka faced a very weak Orioles lineup. Still, not allowing a ball to be hit out of the infield until the fourth inning is pretty good against any team.

The O’s gave Tanaka some help in the first inning, when Jonathan Villar was unable to get out of the way of Trey Mancini’s ground ball. Villar was going from first to second when he was struck by the batted ball for the final out. The Yankees and Orioles played it out and Villar was also thrown out at third going first-to-third, so he managed the ultra-rare single-player double TOOTBLAN on a single play. Amazing. The Orioles are amazing.

After that unusual play to end the first inning, Tanaka retired eight straight batters before Mancini reached on an infield single in the fourth inning. He pulled a weak grounder down the line, Andujar corralled it, and the off-balance throw short-hopped the stretching Greg Bird at first base. It went as an infield single and an error on Andujar to allow Mancini to go to second. Rio Ruiz poked a weak little grounder back up the middle to get the O’s on the board.

A single to right (Dwight Smith Jr.) and a double over Gardner’s head in center field (Mancini) gave the Orioles their second run in the sixth inning and ended Tanaka’s afternoon. Seemed to me Gardner was playing unusually shallow with Mancini at the plate. Whatever. Tanaka’s pitch locations:

That, ladies and germs, is staying out of the middle of the plate. Tanaka looked very good in Spring Training but you never quite know how those things will carry over into the regular season. In this case, it carried over seamlessly. I guess that’s to be expected against the Spring Training lineup the Orioles had out there. Tanaka’s final line: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K. My man.

Tack-On Runs
The Yankees had chances to really blow this game open in the third and fifth innings, though they settled for a few scattered runs. An infield single and two walks set Andujar up for the run-scoring 6-4-3 double play ball in the third inning. That was a bit of a bummer. Judge beat out the infield single, Stanton and Voit worked the walks, then the twin-killing. Alas. Still, a run scored.

In the fifth, Cashner and Mike Wright combined to walk the bases loaded with zero outs. Gardner, Judge, and Stanton walked on 15 total pitches. Voit took a pitch to the elbow to force in a run, then Andujar flew out to the warning track for a sacrifice fly. That double play in the third inning stunk, but Andujar was also maybe six combined feet away from two home runs. He flew out to the wall in the first inning and just short of the wall in the fifth. The weather will warm up soon enough, Miggy.

Pretty extreme Opening Day for Greg Bird, who struck out in his first three at-bats — he heard boos after each strikeout — and went deep in his fourth at-bat. Lefty Paul Frye left an 82 mph cement mixer out over the plate and Bird parked it in the home bullpen. There were a few games last season where the Yankees scored a bunch of runs in the first inning and annoyingly did not score again. That was not this game. They kept adding on.

The New Bullpen
We got our first look at how Aaron Boone might manage his new bullpen. The Yankees did not allow a starter to throw 100 pitches until the 20th game of the season last year, so it wasn’t surprising when Tanaka was pulled after only 83 pitches. He starts on normal rest next time around and it’s only March. No reason to keep pushing him with a sizeable lead against a bad team.

Tanaka exited with a runner on second and two outs in the sixth. The fireman? Adam Ottavino. The Pride of Park Slope struck out Rio Ruiz to end that sixth inning, then struck out two more in a scoreless 1-2-3 seventh inning. All three strikeouts were looking. Ottavino won’t sustain a 75% strikeout rate all season, but … maybe? In all seriousness, goodness is he filthy. What a fun addition from a pure baseball nerd perspective.

Zack Britton, meanwhile, threw only six of his 15 pitches for strikes and needed a nice sliding play by Gleyber Torres to escape the eighth inning. It’s one game and it was pretty darn cold in the Bronx, so I’m cool with giving Britton a mulligan for a less than stellar (yet scoreless) outing. Aroldis Chapman pitched around a leadoff single in the ninth. Tomorrow’s an off-day. Might as well use the top relievers and get that first appearance out of the way.

(Presswire)

Leftovers
Judge, Stanton, and Voit went a combined 4-for-7 (.571) with a homer, six walks, one hit-by-pitch, and two strikeouts. Heck of an Opening Day for the 2-3-4 hitters. Hopefully the Yankees just leave those dudes back-to-back-to-back and not get cute by sandwiching a lefty in there. Andujar went 1-for-3 with the run-scoring double play and two fly balls to the wall in left. Include him in that group too. Leave them at 2-3-4-5.

Sanchez had a 13-pitch at-bat in the seventh inning and managed to pop into a 2-5-4-6-4 double play. Catcher Pedro Severino dropped the pop-up in fair territory on the infield fly rule, and all hell broke loose. No one knew what was going on. Sanchez had his first inning single against the shift, Torres had a single and a walk, Gardner drew a walk, Bird had his home run, and Troy Tulowitzki doubled to right. Everyone reached base at least once.

And finally, the folks at the YES Network heard our pleas. The old score bug has returned. Thank goodness. I applaud them for trying to improve the viewing experience. The new score bug was a big ol’ swing and a miss though.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
MLB.com has the box score and video highlights, and, if you must see them one day into the season, ESPN has the updated standings. Here is 2019’s first win probability graph:


Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
One down, 161 more to go. Friday is the usual “off-day after Opening Day in case Opening Day gets rained out” off-day. The Yankees and Orioles will be back at it Saturday afternoon. James Paxton will make his Yankees’ debut in that game. Nate Karns is going as an opener for the O’s.

Game One: Opening Day

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The last time the Yankees played a game that meant something, they were sent home for the winter and the Red Sox celebrated an ALDS victory at Yankee Stadium. That was 171 days ago. A busy winter followed, one still more notable for who the Yankees didn’t sign rather than who they acquired, and then came an injury-filled Spring Training. The Yankees are not close to full strength at the moment.

And yet, optimism is abound. The Yankees did upgrade their roster over the winter (at least when healthy), and they remain on the short list of the best teams in baseball. It feels like you can count on one hand the number of teams with a realistic chance to win the World Series in 2019. The Yankees are one of those teams. They hit dingers aplenty and the pitching staff is perpetually underrated.

“They’ve had a couple of really good teams here that have been close, and the disappointment of an ending when you feel like you have a team capable of greatness I think does add a log to the fire,” said second year manager Aaron Boone to Scott Orgera yesterday. “It does add a little extra kick to wanting this to get done, and I think that adds to everyone’s hunger a little bit.”

The Yankees snapped their six-year Opening Day losing streak last season. The next goal? Win back-to-back Opening Days. The Yankees haven’t done that since winning four straight season openers from 2005-08. They are 2-8 in their last ten Opening Days. Some notes about today:

  • Masahiro Tanaka is making his fourth career Opening Day start, breaking a tie with Hideo Nomo for the most ever by a Japanese-born pitcher. That’s pretty cool.
  • Five Yankees are on an Opening Day roster for the first time: Miguel Andujar, Domingo German, Gleyber Torres, Stephen Tarpley, and Luke Voit. That’s also pretty cool.
  • This is the earliest regular season game in Yankees history. The previous record? Last year’s March 29th season opener. For what it’s worth, the Yankees are 5-2 all-time in March.

The various injured Yankees are in Tampa rehabbing and won’t take part in today’s pregame introductions, which is kinda lame. “Opening Day is not that special. I’d rather be there for the World Series,” said CC Sabathia to Mark Didtler. Shows what I know. I thought Sabathia wouldn’t want to miss his final Opening Day. Anyway, here are today’s starting lineups:

New York Yankees
1. CF Brett Gardner
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. LF Giancarlo Stanton
4. DH Luke Voit
5. 3B Miguel Andujar
6. C Gary Sanchez
7. 1B Greg Bird
8. 2B Gleyber Torres
9. SS Troy Tulowitzki

RHP Masahiro Tanaka

Baltimore Orioles
1. CF Cedric Mullins
2. LF Dwight Smith Jr.
3. 2B Jonathan Villar
4. DH Trey Mancini
5. 3B Rio Ruiz
6. RF Joey Rickard
7. 1B Chris Davis
8. C Jesus Sucre
9. SS Richie Martin

RHP Andrew Cashner

The good news: The home opener will not be rained/snowed out for the third time in the last four years. It is a glorious day in the Bronx. The bad news: It is pretty dang cold. Windy too. I hope you dressed warm if you’re at the ballpark. The baseline introductions will begin at approximately 12:44pm ET and they’ll probably be shown on the YES Network. Mariano Rivera is throwing out the ceremonial first pitch, so that’s cool. Today’s game will begin at 1:05pm ET and you can watch on YES locally and ESPN nationally. Enjoy the first game of the new season, folks.

Injury Updates: Luis Severino (shoulder) and Dellin Betances (shoulder) are both tentatively scheduled to throw a bullpen session this weekend … CC Sabathia (knee) threw three innings in a minor league game Tuesday and everything went well … Aaron Hicks (back) is running and doing core exercises. Still no baseball activities though.

Roster Notes: The Yankees officially announced the Opening Day roster and it is as expected. No surprises. Betances, Hicks, Severino, Didi Gregorius (elbow), Ben Heller (elbow), Jordan Montgomery (elbow) and Jacoby Ellsbury (hip) are all on the injured list. Sabathia is serving his five-game suspension, so the Yankees have a 24-man roster right now.

Uniform Notes: Domingo German has a new number. He was No. 65 last year, then switched to No. 63 in Spring Training in deference to James Paxton, and now he’s No. 55. Congrats to all you Hideki Matsui fans for coming into a free a Domingo German jersey. And last but not least, the Yankees have a black armband on their uniform today to honor Mel Stottlemyre. Stottlemyre passed away in January.