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Thoughts after Luis Severino gets shut down two weeks with a shoulder injury

March 6, 2019 by Mike

The Yankees suffered their first notable Spring Training injury yesterday afternoon. Luis Severino was a late scratch from his debut Grapefruit League start with what is being called rotator cuff inflammation. He received a cortisone injection and anti-inflammatories, and will be shut down two weeks. Severino is “highly unlikely” to be ready for Opening Day, Aaron Boone said. I mean, duh. Anyway, I have some thoughts on this, so let’s get to ’em.

1. Rotator cuff inflammation is about the best possible news in this situation. The Yankees say the MRI looked good, which I take to mean there’s no structural damage, so that’s reassuring. That said, inflammation is not a diagnosis. It’s a symptom. It’s like saying Severino has a runny nose without mentioning he has the flu. There’s something in his shoulder causing the inflammation. The range of possible outcomes with shoulder inflammation is wide. It could truly be a two-week thing and Severino comes back good as new. Or it could linger all season and he’s never quite himself. Brewers righty Zach Davies was put on the disabled list with rotator cuff inflammation last May and was shut down ten days. Ten days turned into two weeks, two weeks turned into a month, a month turned into six weeks, on and on it went. Davies wasn’t ready to return to the Brewers until mid-August and, when he did return, he was nowhere near as effective as he had been previously. All things considered, I’ll take “rotator cuff inflammation and shut down two weeks” over something like a strain. This definitely has the potential to be something more serious than the two-week timetable would lead you to believe. Shoulders are unpredictable.

2. I am happy Severino spoke up about the injury — you’d be surprised how many guys try to pitch through aches and pains, even in Spring Training — and I am certain the Yankees will be cautious with him. He turned only 25 last month and he’s one of the best young pitchers in baseball, and the Yankees just committed to him long-term with a $40M contract. In this unforgiving and hyper-analytic era where players are treated more as commodities than people, Severino is an investment, and the Yankees are going to protect that investment. For argument’s sake though, let’s say Severino will be a-okay after two weeks and can start a throwing program. That probably puts him on track to return sometime in late April, or even early May. He was scheduled to make his spring debut yesterday and won’t be able to pick up right where he left off, you know? Severino will start by playing catch, then he’ll throw in the bullpen, then he’ll face some hitters in a simulated game, then he’ll start pitching in minor league rehab games to get stretched out. The best case scenario likely puts Severino on track to begin pitching in rehab games the second week of April or thereabouts. Three or four rehab starts to get ready puts his return at the end of April, assuming no setbacks or delays. The everything goes right scenario has Severino missing the first month of the regular season. Yuck. For all intents and purposes, Severino will have to restart Spring Training once he’s deemed healthy.

3. Boone said Severino felt something after throwing one specific pitch during his warm-ups yesterday. This isn’t something he’s felt for a while that suddenly got worse. Severino recently admitted he felt fatigued down the stretch last year — “When you are at the finish line and you feel like you need a little bit more than five days to be ready, you know that something’s going on,” he said — and I can’t help but wonder how much that contributed to this injury, if at all. As I noted in our season review post, Severino’s fastball velocity and slider spin rate were down late last year, and his command slipped as well. I’m convinced the pitch-tipping was only like 5% of the problem despite getting 100% of the attention. There were real red flags last year. The Yankees have put Severino through two physicals since the end of last season (his end-of-season physical and start-of-spring physical), and you can be sure his medicals were scrutinized before they gave him that $40M contract. Also, Gary Sanchez told Marly Rivera that Severino was throwing the ball very well in his bullpen sessions this spring. “After that bullpen, give him the ball every five days. He’s ready,” Gary said recently. Maybe whatever was wrong late last year contributed to this injury. It’s certainly possible. It seems to me this is something that just happened yesterday though. Pitchers get hurt, man. It’s part of the game.

4. The calls for Dallas Keuchel were inevitable and are completely understandable. The “this guy got hurt, so go sign the best free agent at his position to replace him” line of thinking has been around since the dawn of free agency. I would be absolutely shocked if the Yankees went out and signed Keuchel though. That’s just not how they operate nowadays. The Yankees were not connected to Keuchel at all this winter — I like to think I do a good job rounding up hot stove rumors here, and the most recent post in our Keuchel archive is from the 2017 ALCS — which makes sense because he is not their type. They go for power pitchers and/or pitchers on short-term contracts these days. Keuchel is neither of those things. He’s a finesse pitch-to-contact guy who’s ground ball and strikeout rates are heading in the wrong direction, and, call it a hunch, but something tells me Scott Boras won’t be willing to cut the Yankees a break on a short-term Keuchel deal in the wake of the Severino injury. (It would aggravate me to no end if the Yankees signed Keuchel long-term after declining to go long-term for Patrick Corbin, but I digress.) Like it or not, the Yankees have a payroll limit and they’ve shown us they won’t exceed it. Signing Keuchel means blowing up that payroll plan and exceeding the $226M second luxury tax threshold. Cot’s has the luxury tax payroll at $222.4M right now. The first $3.6M the Yankees give Keuchel (or anyone, for that matter) would equal $4.32M total thanks to the luxury tax. Every $1 after that is $1.32. It is real money and it matters to the Yankees. They’ve made that clear. I want absolutely nothing to do with Keuchel long-term. At 31, he pitches like I want a 38-year-old to pitch after he loses his stuff. I’m not betting on a smooth decline. On a hypothetical one-year deal, even a very expensive one-year deal ($30M?), yes, absolutely the Yankees should sign Keuchel now that Severino’s hurt and the start of the CC Sabathia’s season is being delayed. I just don’t see that happening. I don’t see Keuchel and Boras taking a one-year deal and I don’t see the Yankees going long-term. The Yankees have set their payroll and Keuchel is a fit only because he’s available, not because he does things the Yankees value (throw hard, spin the ball, miss bats, etc.).

5. I don’t think Keuchel is a realistic possibility, though I do believe the Yankees are going to hunker down and look for additional rotation depth now. Moreso than usual, I mean. (They’re always looking.) Jordan Montgomery is on schedule with his Tommy John surgery rehab but is still so far away — Montgomery recently said he’s looking to return soon after the All-Star break — that the Yankees couldn’t stand pat and wait for him to come save the day. The current crop of unsigned free agent starters absolutely stinks beyond Keuchel and the thoroughly uninspiring Gio Gonzalez. MLBTR has eight starters on their unsigned free agents list. I rank them:

Dallas Keuchel
Gio Gonzalez
Edwin Jackson
James Shields
Yovani Gallardo
Miguel Gonzalez
Chris Tillman
Bartolo Colon

How many of those dudes will actually throw a pitch in the big leagues this season? Keuchel and Gonzalez will, for sure. Eventually they’re going to sign. Pretty decent chance that’s it though. The other guys might be forced into retirement. Aaron Brooks (Athletics), Matt Koch (Diamondbacks), and Matt Wisler (Reds) are out of minor league options and on the roster bubble, so maybe one of them shakes loose before Opening Day. Point is: Yikes. There is not much pitching out there at all. I expect the Yankees to pursue a lower cost depth arm rather than a big money guy like Keuchel, or even a medium money guy like Gonzalez. Someone like Jackson (eh) or Shields (blah) on a “we’ll bring you to camp, and if we like what we see, we’ll consider adding you to the roster” minor league contract a la Ervin Santana and the White Sox strikes me as the most likely outcome here. (Would any of these guys even be ready to pitch come Opening Day? Or are we looking at a mid-April arrival?)

6. As for their internal rotation options, the Yankees have some pretty lively arms available in Luis Cessa, Domingo German, and Jonathan Loaisiga. Saying the Yankees lack rotation depth is almost Pavlovian these days. (“What is the Yankees’ biggest weakness?” “Rotation depth. Now where’s my treat?”) No team has an established Major League starter stashed away as their sixth guy and no worthwhile free agent is signing with a team knowing he is at best sixth on the rotation depth chart. That’s just now how it works. New York’s rotation depth chart lines up something like this:

Luis Severino (will miss Opening Day)
James Paxton
Masahiro Tanaka
J.A. Happ
CC Sabathia (will miss Opening Day)
Luis Cessa
Domingo German
Jonathan Loaisiga
Chance Adams
Mike King (will miss Opening Day)

We could ague about the exact order all day. Clearly though, the top five is the top five and the next five is the next five. Remember when the Yankees had to turn to guys like Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner and Chase Whitley as depth starters? Yeah, I feel way better about having dudes like Cessa and German and Loaisiga as depth. Younger guys who can throw a fastball by a hitter and break off some quality secondary pitches. The early season schedule is very favorable — the Yankees play 16 of their first 21 games against the Orioles, Tigers, White Sox, and Royals — and I say use an opener for Cessa or German or Loaisiga. Unless the Yankees splurge for Keuchel or Gonzalez, I’d stick with the in-house youngsters over a dude at the end of the line like Shields or Gallardo. (I totally get signing someone like that for added depth. I just don’t see them as better options than what the Yankees have now.)

7. Alright, so with Severino slated to miss the start of the season, who gets the ceremonial Opening Day start? Giving CC Sabathia one last Opening Day start in his farewell season would’ve been cool as hell — Sabathia is tied for tenth all-time with eleven career Opening Day starts — but alas, that won’t happen. He won’t be ready for the start of the season either. That leaves three candidates: J.A. Happ, Masahiro Tanaka, and James Paxton. Paxton has never started an Opening Day — Felix Hernandez has started the last ten Opening Days for the Mariners — and I’m not sure the Yankees would put that on the new guy. Happ made his first career Opening Day start last year (remember this?) and Tanaka started three straight Opening Days for the Yankees from 2015-17. Tanaka’s probably the safest pick. He’s done it before, so the Yankees could defer to the veteran and no one would think twice about it or make too much of it. Ultimately, the Opening Day starter and the Opening Day rotation order doesn’t mean much. Opening Day doesn’t have any added importance in the grand scheme of things. It is one of 162, and it usually doesn’t take long for weather and whatnot to throw the rotation order out of whack. This is begging for a poll, so:

Who should start Opening Day 2019?

March 5th Spring Training Notes: Severino, Hicks, Sabathia

March 5, 2019 by Mike

The Yankees beat the Braves this afternoon. Aaron Judge had two hits on the day, including the three-run home run you see above. He inside-outed a fastball over the center field wall. I will never get tired of watching that man hit home runs. Giancarlo Stanton, Luke Voit, Miguel Andujar, and DJ LeMahieu all had base hits as well. Voit’s was a rocket off the first baseman’s glove.

J.A. Happ allowed one run in three innings in his latest tune-up appearance. He seemed to throw an awful lot of changeups this afternoon. Must’ve been working on it. Dellin Betances made his Grapefruit League debut and looked to be going through the motions in a 1-2-3 inning. Chad Green and Tommy Kahnle looked quite good in their perfect innings. Here are the box score and video highlights, and here are the day’s notes from Tampa:

In case you missed it earlier, Luis Severino was a late scratch from this afternoon’s start. He has rotator cuff inflammation and will be shut down two weeks. Aaron Boone said Severino is “highly unlikely” to be ready for Opening Day. Bummer.
Aaron Hicks (back) was held out of the lineup again today and said he is a couple days away from swinging a bat. An MRI came back clean. “(Hicks is) dealing with a little bit of back soreness. Not something I’m too concerned about,” said Aaron Boone. [Lindsey Adler, Bryan Hoch]
CC Sabathia will throw his next bullpen session tomorrow, he said during an in-game interview on YES this afternoon. It’ll be his third bullpen since beginning his throwing program Friday. Sabathia said everything is going well so far and he has no restrictions.
We’ve reached the point in the spring where scheduled starting pitchers have stopped being reported. Jonathan Loaisiga is starting tomorrow. I know that much. Luis Cessa lines up to start Thursday’s game. We’ll see. [Bryan Hoch]

If you’re interested, today’s game will be replayed on YES (7pm ET) and MLB Network (11pm ET). The Yankees are back at it tomorrow afternoon with another home game, that one against the Cardinals. The game will be televised live on YES and MLB.tv.

Update: Luis Severino shut down two weeks with rotator cuff inflammation

March 5, 2019 by Mike

3:52pm ET: Severino has rotator cuff inflammation, Boone said following this afternoon’s game. He’ll receive an injection and anti-inflammatory medication, and will be shut down two weeks. “The MRI looked pretty good … Sounds like shoulder is pretty clean,” Boone said. That’s a relief. Still, Severino being shut down two weeks means he is “highly unlikely” to be ready for Opening Day, Boone said.

2:25pm ET: During the in-game interview on YES, Aaron Boone said Severino felt something toward the back of his shoulder, near his lat, while warming up. Tests are scheduled for later today and Boone didn’t have anything more to add.

1:11pm ET: Well, so much for the Yankees staying healthy in Spring Training. Luis Severino was a late scratch from this afternoon’s scheduled Grapefruit League debut with right shoulder discomfort, the Yankees announced. He will be further evaluated this afternoon. Severino did warm up before the game, so it was a very late scratch.

The Yankees brought Severino along slowly this spring after his big workload the last two years (407.2 innings), and after Severino admitted he was fatigued down the stretch late last year. “When you are at the finish line and you feel like you need a little bit more than five days to be ready, you know that something’s going on,” he said a few weeks ago.

Severino is the Yankees best pitcher and he’s one of the best young pitchers in the game, plus the Yankees just gave him a four-year extension, so of course they’re going to play it safe with him. I have to think the slightest twinge would’ve resulted in a scratch and an evaluation. Whatever this is, hopefully it’s minor.

CC Sabathia will not be ready for Opening Day as he works his way back from offseason knee and heart surgery, so the Yankees are already down one projected starter. Severino not being able to make the ceremonial Opening Day start is no big deal. Missing an extended period of time would be devastating though. He is a true difference-maker.

Dallas Keuchel remains a free agent and speculation about a match with the Yankees is inevitable. I think it’s way too premature for that. First, let’s see what the tests say about Severino. Second, would the Yankees be okay with a big payroll addition like that? Keuchel would undoubtedly push them into the second luxury tax tier and result in stiffer penalties.

Jon Heyman says the Yankees have had Gio Gonzalez on their radar throughout the offseason, and my guess is the Yankees would go for a lower cost fill-in starter like him than Keuchel should they bring someone in. After Keuchel and Gonzalez, the best free agent starter is probably James Shields. Yeesh.

Fatigue, expectations and the real Luis Severino [2019 Season Preview]

March 5, 2019 by Steven Tydings

For the last two seasons, the Yankees have had one of the best starting pitchers in baseball with Luis Severino. Shaking off the ineffectiveness of his first full-time go as a starter in 2016, Sevy has been an All-Star and received Cy Young votes in consecutive seasons, something no Yankees starter has done since 2009-11 CC Sabathia.

But Severino’s second half of 2018 was rough. Not rough enough to prevent him from signing a lucrative extension, yet it still casts doubt on his overall ability. With that in mind, can we expect a rebound to form in 2018?

Projections

2018 Totals: 191 1/3 IP, 3.39 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 10.35 K/9, 2.16 BB/9, 5.7 fWAR
ZiPS: 186 IP, 3.34 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 9.92 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, 4.9 WAR
Steamer: 196 IP, 3.45 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 10.16 K/9, 2.47 BB/9, 4.5 WAR
PECOTA: 174 IP, 3.55 ERA, 3.70 DRA, 9.93 K/9, 2.79 BB/9, 3.5 WARP

The ZiPS and Steamer projections are more or less in line with Severino’s performance from the last two seasons, giving more weight to his 2018 campaign than his superior 2017 finish. Still, those are the top marks for Yankees pitchers. ZiPS has him tied for fifth in WAR among pitchers, behind just Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Corey Kluber. Steamer has him tied for sixth with Justin Verlander sneaking ahead.

Meanwhile, PECOTA is clearly down on Sevy. They have him second in the Bronx in pitching WAR behind James Paxton despite the 25-year-old righty having not too dissimilar projections from other systems. These systems are conservative by design, so Severino shouldn’t be expected to fall exactly in line.

Fatigue and Tipping Pitches

This may be a tired topic, however, we have to address it: Severino had a troublesome second half last season. Actually, his late-season swoon started a couple starts before the second half despite a strong outing in the All-Star Game (and a nice catch to boot).

Recounting the Severino 2018 splits one last time:

Opening Day through July 1: 118 1/3 IP, 1.98 ERA, .195/.251/.282 line against, 138 strikeouts vs. 29 walks, six homers and a 13-2 record
July 7 through end of season: 73 IP, 5.67 ERA, .299/.340/.515 line against, 82 strikeouts vs. 17 walks, 13 homers and a 6-6 record

Two things jump out: The home runs and the batting average. He allowed more than double the homers in about 2/3 the innings. Meanwhile, the batting average jumped more than 100 points.

Each of these can be explained by two factors: Fatigue and pitch tipping. The Yankees insisted Severino wasn’t injured down the stretch and considering he threw nearly 200 innings (playoffs included), it’s dubious to think they were hiding a serious injury.

Fatigue, however, makes plenty of sense. He leaped from 142 2/3 innings in 2016 to 209 1/3 in 2017. Cole Hamels experienced a similar surge from 2007 to 2008 en route to a World Series title. In 2009, he also saw a drop off in performance, making it through the entire season into the Fall Classic but not putting up exemplary results. He would bounce back completely over the next few seasons.

Severino could repeat Hamels’ progression after losing something, not velocity, but some zip off his stuff in the second half. That may have manifested itself in his changeup results as it rated out as below average after being one of his top offerings in 2017. Being used to the larger workload coming to camp in The Best Shape of His Life™ furthers the rebound narrative.

Pitch tipping could explain the struggles as well. The Red Sox seemed to be all over his pitches in the playoffs and their players were literally calling out the pitches as he went along. That’s easily correctable. Still, it wasn’t too widespread considering how Severino shut down the Athletics for four innings in the Wild Card Game.

Expectations and Extension

Fatigue and pitching tipping are no longer valid excuses for Severino. They both can be filed under the “fool me once” doctrine and Sevy now needs to find the next step in his progression.

The projections above weren’t high on Severino for no reason. He’s fifth in fWAR since the beginning of 2017. He’s sixth in strikeout percentage and 18th in HR/FB rate despite pitching half his games in Yankee Stadium. His FIP- in fourth and his xFIP- is fourth. Even with a dreadful second half, he’s still been an elite starter for the past two years.

This year, therefore, marks the inflection point for Severino. Can he establish himself once and for all as an ace? Can he leave behind the 2018 (and not so distant 2016) issues that plagued him to achieve more consistent results? If not, he’ll remain a quandary, eerily unreliable in the eyes of baseball fans. A return to 2017 gives him credit as one of the game’s top pitchers without qualifiers.

The extension he signed last month also changes how he appears to baseball as a whole. His four-year deal worth $40 million guaranteed locks him into a below-market rate while buying out a free agent year with a club option. That solidifies his spot in the Yankees’ hierarchy as their ace for the foreseeable future and shows the team’s faith in his ability to shake off the bitter end to last season.

The real Severino

The real Luis Severino will be the one we see in 2019. He’s brought himself to the brink of stardom without tipping over into bonafide acedom. The electrifying right-hander will assuredly start Opening Day in the Bronx and carry the expectations of being a No. 1 starter on a title contender. That’s a lot, but nothing he hasn’t shown he can handle.

Severino ultimately remains the best experience to watch among Yankees starter. That’s what we look for at the ballpark and on TV, right? In my lifetime, the Yankees haven’t had an in-his-prime pitcher with Severino’s stuff who isn’t pitching the ninth inning. Even with the promise of James Paxton, the eclectic repertoire of Masahiro Tanaka and the Old Man Game of CC Sabathia, Severino is the starter by whom you mark your calendar. That shouldn’t change in 2019.

Spring Training Game Thread: Luis Severino’s Debut

March 5, 2019 by Mike

Opening Day is three weeks and two days away, and today the Yankees will send their presumed Opening Day starter to the mound for the first time this spring. Luis Severino is on the bump today after the Yankees took it easy on him the last few weeks. He’s endured a big workload the last two years and he just signed a nice little four-year contract, so they’re protecting him arm. Makes sense.

In addition to Severino, Dellin Betances is also scheduled to make his Grapefruit League debut this afternoon. He reported to camp a few days late because his wife gave birth to their first child three weeks ago. Severino and Daddy Dellin still have plenty of time to prepare for the regular season. Today’s the start of that process in earnest. Here is the Braves’ lineup and here are the players the Yankees will use today:

SS Troy Tulowitzki
RF Aaron Judge
LF Giancarlo Stanton
1B Luke Voit
3B Miguel Andujar
C Gary Sanchez
2B Gleyber Torres
DH DJ LeMahieu
CF Estevan Florial

RHP Luis Severino

Available Position Players: C Kellin Deglan, C Francisco Diaz, C Kyle Higashioka, C Jorge Saez, 1B Mike Ford, IF Angel Aguilar, IF Thairo Estrada, IF Kyle Holder, IF Gosuke Katoh, OF Trey Amburgey, OF Jeff Hendrix, OF Matt Lipka, UTIL Tyler Wade. Aguilar, Katoh, and Hendrix are up from minor league camp.

Available Pitchers: RHP Daniel Alvarez, RHP Dellin Betances, LHP Nestor Cortes, RHP Cale Coshow, RHP Chad Green, LHP J.A. Happ, RHP Tommy Kahnle, LHP Stephen Tarpley. Alvarez is up from minor league camp. I hope he pitches. Happ will come out of the bullpen at point after Severino. There’s no chance a veteran guy like him is on the day’s list as an extra arm.

Not a great day in Tampa. It rained much of the morning and will be gloomy this afternoon. No rain, but gloomy. This afternoon’s game will begin at 1:05pm ET and you can watch live on YES and MLB.tv. There are no MLB.tv blackouts in Spring Training. Enjoy the game.

Four things we’ve learned about the 2019 Yankees so far in Spring Training

March 5, 2019 by Mike

In three weeks and two days the Yankees will open the 2019 regular season at home against the Orioles. They are a week and a half into their Grapefruit League season and, so far, no one has gotten hurt. That is the most important thing right now. The pitchers are getting stretched out and the hitters are still working to get their timing down. The single most important thing on March 5th is good health.

Spring Training numbers are full of lies. Tyler Wade’s .333/.412/.733 batting line doesn’t mean anything, and I say that as a Wade fan. J.A. Happ’s 20.25 ERA is no big deal. Spring Training performance is generally meaningless and yet, each and every year teams base roster decisions on spring numbers. Not major decisions, it’s usually only one of the last roster spots, but spring performance does sometimes dictate roster decisions.

The Yankees, thankfully, do not have many roster spots up for grabs this winter. We don’t have to worry about them reading too much into Grapefruit League numbers and taking the wrong guy north. That said, not everything we see in spring is meaningless and we have learned some things about the 2019 Yankees from their nine exhibition games to date. Here are four things we’ve learned so far.

Tulowitzki might actually have something left in the tank

Coming into camp, it was impossible to know what Troy Tulowitzki had to offer the Yankees. He’s battled injuries throughout his career and he hadn’t played in a competitive game since July 2017, and he’s also 34 now, which is where you’d expect normal age-related decline to become a factor as well. The Yankees decided to roll the dice on the Blue Jays’ dime because hey, why not? If it works, great. If not, then no big deal.

Tulowitzki took Marcus Stroman deep in his very first Grapefruit League at-bat this year, which made for great schadenfreude, but the home run was only a little poke just inside the right field foul pole. That ball probably sails foul if it were, say, 320 feet down the line rather than 314 feet. The more telling homer came in Tulowitzki’s next game, when he yanked a ball over the wall in the left-center field gap:

At his best throughout his career, Tulowitzki has been a (mostly) pull hitter who gets the ball in the air, and that’s the Tulowitzki we saw on that home run. The ball is jumping off his bat in the super early going (3-for-6 with two homers and a double), which sure as heck beats the alternative, that being his bat looking old and slow. Also, Tulowitzki has looked pretty good at shortstop thus far. He’s made some non-routine plays.

“More than (the homers), the way he’s moving in the field,” said Aaron Boone to Erik Boland when asked what most excites him about Tulowitzki. “It’s great to get some early results and get some homers out of the gate. But I’m probably more excited about how he’s moving in the field and how he’s attacking the ball and playing free and easy. He looks really athletic out there. I think that’s the thing I’m even more excited about.”

After that long layoff, it would’ve been understandable if Tulowitzki came out of the gate looking rusty and sluggish. The guy hadn’t played in 20 months, after all. It would’ve been understandable and also concerning because the Yankees have Tulowitzki penciled in as their regular shortstop. Sliding Gleyber Torres over to shortstop and putting DJ LeMahieu at second base is a fine backup plan. Clearly, the best Yankees roster includes a productive Tulowitzki.

If nothing else, Tulowitzki has shown there is still some life in his bat, and that playing shortstop is not a pipe dream. He’s given everyone a reason to keep paying it attention. Will this last? Who knows. History suggests Tulowitzki will get hurt at some point. Tulowitzki came to camp as an unknown and the first impression is good. We’ve seen signs of a productive player, not someone who looks like he missed the last 20 months.

“I have a lot of work ahead of me,” said Tulowitzki to Bryan Hoch following his second homer. “Two games; I need to be out there more, see more pitchers, just be on my feet more. But I’ll take it. It’s a good start. I’m just having fun, man. It was a long road for me, so every time I step out there on the field, I don’t take it for granted. I’m trying to enjoy every moment.”

Bird is healthy

Greg Bird is a Grapefruit League Hall of Famer. He’s hitting .462/.533/.923 with three doubles and one home run through 15 plate appearances this spring and is a career .319/.420/.674 hitter in Spring Training. Bird has never carried his spring performance over into the regular season because he’s never actually made it through Spring Training healthy as a big leaguer. The last three years:

2016: Had shoulder surgery and missed Spring Training.
2017: Fouled a pitch off his foot at the end of camp and tried to play through it in April.
2018: Started the season on the disabled list after dealing with ankle soreness in camp.

Bird was impossibly lost last year after returning from his second ankle surgery in two years — he hit .135/.210/.260 (26 wRC+) after August 1st last season and looked every bit as bad as those numbers suggest — and the fact of the matter is the 2017 postseason is the only time in the last three years Bird was a productive big leaguer. Otherwise he’s been hurt or bad or both.

Through nine Grapefruit League games, we know Bird is healthy. Or at least he looks healthy, anyway. That’s a start. The numbers are nice, especially since he’s driving the ball the other way with authority …

… but I’ve been fooled by Greg Bird crushing the ball in March too many times already. The most important thing is health. It all starts there. And right now, Bird looks healthy. There looks to be more bat speed than there was at any point last year and he’s been nibble at first base. Bird is in Tulowitzki territory at this point in that it’s fair to wonder how long this will last, because history suggests it won’t. For now it’s so far, so good. This is the start Bird needed and the start the Yankees wanted to see.

“I’ve just been enjoying it, to be honest,” said Bird to Ken Davidoff about his Spring Training. “That’s it. It’s still early. We’ve got a lot of camp left. Long season. I’m excited. I’m excited for the team we have.”

The last two bullpen spots aren’t really up for grabs

Ah yes, a good ol’ fake Spring Training competition. Fake, rigged, whatever you want to call it. The Yankees have been known to do this from time to time. Make it appear a roster spot(s) is up for grabs even though they made their decision a long time ago. Hey, there’s nothing wrong with it. Competition brings out the best in people and there’s no harm in keeping players motivated.

The Yankees currently have two open bullpen spots behind Dellin Betances, Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Jonathan Holder, and Adam Ottavino. Barring injury, those two spots are going to Luis Cessa and Tommy Kahnle. They’re both out of minor league options, so they can’t go to Triple-A without passing through waivers, and there’s no chance either would clear. The roster mechanics factor into the decision at least somewhat.

Aaron Boone talked up Kahnle over the weekend — “That’s the best I’ve seen him throw since I’ve been here … That was exciting to see,” he said to Brendan Kuty following Kahnle’s three up, three down, three strikeouts performance Friday — and said his fastball sat in the 95-97 mph range without much effort. That’s very encouraging for early March. Last season Kahnle’s fastball averaged 95.5 mph and he put everything he had into each pitch.

As for Cessa, the Yankees very clearly like him, and they will need a swingman/sixth starter type on Opening Day. He has allowed one run in five innings this spring — “I try not to think about (being out of options). The last two years I put too much pressure on myself to make the team. Right now I will do my job and pitch,” Cessa said to George King recently — but it’s five innings. Who cares? Still, Boone is talking Cessa up like he is Kahnle.

“We believe he can fill (the swingman) role really effectively. It’s important for him to come out and pitch well, but we really like where he’s at and how he’s throwing the ball right now. I think he’s going to play a big role for us this year,” said Boone to Erik Boland recently. “I think he’s going to play a big role for us this year” is definitely not something that gets said about a guy who is fighting for a roster spot.

Beyond Boone’s words, Kahnle’s and Cessa’s usage is telling. Kahnle is getting the veteran reliever treatment and pitching early in games, against actual big leaguers. Cessa is working as a starter and getting stretched out. So to is Domingo German, which is only smart, but he has an option remaining. Other bullpen hopefuls, specifically Stephen Tarpley, have been pitching later in Grapefruit League games. They’re further down on the priority list.

Injuries can always change things and keep in mind the Opening Day bullpen is just that, the Opening Day bullpen. The bullpen will change throughout the season. Right now, the Yankees are talking and acting like a team that has already decided Kahnle and Cessa are getting the final two bullpen spots. Kahnle is worth an extended look to see whether he can get back to his 2017 form, and Cessa being out of options gives him a leg up over German.

Sabathia won’t be ready for Opening Day

This is something I think we all knew would be the case coming into the camp, but now it is official. CC Sabathia is working his way back following his annual offseason knee cleanup and also his December angioplasty. His offseason program was interrupted and he reported to camp behind the other pitchers. He started throwing bullpen sessions last Friday. Unless the Yankees rush him, which they would never do, Sabathia won’t be ready for Opening Day.

“We haven’t mapped out a timetable yet, but I have plenty of time (to get ready for the season),” said the perpetually optimistic Sabathia to Bryan Hoch and George King recently. “After I got the clearance from the doctor to start working out, I started working out pretty heavy. I knew coming down here I would feel good. I felt fine playing catch, getting on the mound the other day felt great and today, so I’ll just keep progressing. I feel great.”

Assuming Sabathia starts the season on the injured list rather than simply serving his five-game suspension, the Yankees will need someone to make two spot starts in April, and this probably means both Cessa and German will make the Opening Day roster. One will make the spot starts and the other will be the long man in the bullpen. Once Sabathia is activated, German goes to Triple-A and Cessa moves into the bullpen full-time. Something like that.

As long as the weather cooperates the Yankees can very easily arrange their early season rotation in such a way that Sabathia’s replacement makes his first four starts against the Tigers, Orioles, White Sox, and Royals. The schedule works in their favor. The Yankees can give Sabathia as much time as he needs while running their sixth starter out there against some truly terrible teams. That’s the best case scenario given the circumstances, really.

Coming into camp, there was a tiny sliver of hope Sabathia would be ready for the start of the regular season. That is definitely not the case now. That question has been answered. Sabathia is only now starting his usual spring routine. The Yankees have to figure out who will fill in as the fifth starter in the early going (I’d put money on Cessa) and prepare accordingly.

Update: Yankees announce 2019 minor league coaching staffs

March 4, 2019 by Mike

March 4th: Coaching assignments for the two Rookie Gulf Coast League affiliates are now available, courtesy of Robert Pimpsner. I’ve updated the post below with those assignments, as well as some additional minor league coaching information at the very bottom.

February 4th: Spring Training is approaching and that means teams are finalizing their minor league coaching staffs. I know there’s nothing exciting about minor league coaches — there’s barely anything exciting about Major League coaches — but these folks will train and develop the next wave of Yankees. There’s no glory to being a minor league coach, but these folks are very important.

The Yankees and the various minor league affiliates have announced their 2019 coaching staffs over the last few weeks. Here’s a level-by-level breakdown.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Manager: Jay Bell
Pitching Coach: Tommy Phelps
Hitting Coach: Phil Plantier
Bullpen Coach: Doug Davis
Athletic Trainer: Darren London
Strength & Conditioning Coach: Brad Hyde
Video: Manager: Joe Wielbruda

Perhaps most notable for scoring the winning run on Luis Gonzalez’s walk-off bloop single in Game Seven of the 2001 World Series, Bell is entering his third season in the organization. He managed High-A Tampa in 2017 and Double-A Trenton in 2018. He replaces Bobby Mitchell, who did not have his contract renewed following last season, as Scranton’s manager in 2019.

“I’m certainly excited about this opportunity,” Bell said in a statement. “I truly enjoy the New York Yankees approach to player development. The organization’s code revolves around respect, hard work and creating a winning atmosphere. We will strive to help players achieve their goals with an eye on making an impact in the Majors.”

Two years ago Baseball America named Bell the top managerial prospect in the High-A Florida State League. He has big league coaching experience with the Diamondbacks (bench coach from 2005-06), Pirates (hitting coach in 2013), and Reds (bench coach from 2014-15). Bell has said he wants to get back to the big leagues and this might be his final year in the system. If the Yankees don’t promote him to the MLB staff next year, another team could steal him away.

“Winning is important. Winning is important for player development,” Bell said to DJ Eberle. “Player development is not just about getting guys ready individually, but it’s about getting guys ready collectively. It is important to win. It is important to create that culture at the minor league level as well. I want as much success as we’ve had in Scranton the last four years — I want to continue that success.”

Phelps, Plantier, Davis, London, and Hyde are all returning to the RailRiders. This will be Phelps’ fourth season as the team’s pitching coach and Plantier’s second as hitting coach. This Doug Davis is not that Doug Davis, the former big league southpaw. This is a different Doug Davis. The RailRiders are looking for their fourth division title in five years in 2019.

Double-A Trenton Thunder

Manager: Patrick Osborn
Pitching Coach: Tim Norton
Hitting Coach: Ty Hawkins
Defensive Coach: Raul Dominguez
Bullpen Coach: Jason Phillips
Athletic Trainer: Jimmy Downam
Strength & Conditioning Coach: Anthony Velazquez
Video Manager: Mike Triller

Another move up the ladder for Osborn. This is his sixth year in the organization and he’s previously managed one of the two Rookie Gulf Coast League teams (2014), Short Season Staten Island (2015), High-A Tampa (2016 and 2018), and Low-A Charleston (2017). Osborn is said to be extremely popular with his players and he’s been considered something of a rising managerial star in the organization. He’s a new school guy with a grasp of analytics but also experience in player development.

Phillips is that Jason Phillips. The former big leaguer and Mets backup catcher. He retired as a player following Spring Training 2009 and has spent the last few years as a big league bullpen catcher with the Mariners (2009-15) and Blue Jays (2016-18). Now he’s making the transition from big league bullpen catcher to minor league bullpen coach. Norton, Hawkins, Dominguez, Downam, and Velasquez are all returning to Trenton. Norton spent a few years in the system as a bullpen prospect and was on the cusp of a big league call-up in 2011 before getting hurt. The Yankees had to scramble after that and wound up signing Cory Wade.

High-A Tampa Tarpons

Manager: Aaron Holbert
Pitching Coach: Jose Rosado
Hitting Coach: Joe Migliaccio
Defensive Coach: Kevin Mahoney
Catching Coach: Michel Hernandez
Athletic Trainer: Michael Becker
Strength & Conditioning Coach: Jacob Dunning

Welcome back to the coaching ranks, Aaron Holbert. He has been with the Yankees as a scout since 2016 and this will be his first coaching or managerial gig in the organization. Holbert played in the big leagues briefly (one game in 1996 and 22 games in 2005, so quite a gap there) and he has prior minor league managerial experience with the Indians. Holbert is essentially replacing Mitchell in the organization’s minor league managerial rotation.

Migliaccio is a new hire who joins the Yankees from the University of Iowa. We’ll come back to him later in this post. Rosado, Hernandez, Becker, and Dunning are all returning to Tampa and Mahoney is moving up from the Rookie Gulf Coast League. Rosado has been credited with helped Luis Severino, Jordan Montgomery, Chance Adams, and several others take steps forward in their development in recent years. He’s an important behind-the-scenes member of the organization. Hernandez is the Yankees’ catching guru. He’s worked with everyone from Gary Sanchez to Luis Torrens. I reckon Donny Sands will be his project this year.

Low-A Charleston RiverDogs

Manager: Julio Mosquera
Pitching Coach: Gabe Luckert
Hitting Coach: Greg Colbrunn
Defensive Coaches: Travis Chapman and Francisco Leandro
Athletic Trainer: Michael Sole
Strength & Conditioning Coach: Danny Russo
Video Manager: Nick Horning

Mosquera is entering his 14th season in the organization and his second straight year at the helm of the RiverDogs. He played briefly in the big leagues with the Blue Jays and Brewers back in the day and has held a variety of roles with the Yankees, including catching coordinator (2006-14), Rookie Gulf Coast League manager (2015-16), and Short Season Staten Island manager (2017). Mosquera is from Panama and he’s been with the Yankees for a long time now, so, as you could imagine, he was thrilled when Mariano Rivera was unanimously voted into the Hall of Fame.

Feliz de nuestro Mariano orgulloso pic.twitter.com/zbN6r1pjpS

— Julio Mosquera (@juliomosq29) January 22, 2019

“I was very excited when I got the appointment that I was going back to Charleston. It’s a great place and a great baseball town,” said Mosquera in a statement. “The fans and the front office make that ballpark an exciting place to be. I think with the coaching staff that we have now and the environment we’re in, it’s not only going to be hard work but a whole lot of fun too, especially when you show up to the ballpark and you know that fanbase and all the entertainment going on at the stadium are going to be there to back you up.”

Colbrunn returns for a fourth stint as Charleston’s hitting coach. He served as the club’s hitting coach from 2007-09, 2011-12, and 2015-16. Around that he had stints as the RiverDogs’ manager (2010), the Red Sox’s hitting coach (2013-14), and the Yankees’ minor league roving hitting instructor (2017-18). Colbrunn lives in South Carolina and he stepped down from his role with Boston to be closer to his family after suffering a cerebral hemorrhage in 2014. A role with Charleston is a good fit for both him and the Yankees.

Luckert is a new addition to the staff. He spent the last two years as a pitching coach with one of the two Rookie Gulf Coast League teams. Leandro was Rookie Pulaski’s hitting coach last season. Now he’ll join Chapman, who is in his seventh year in the organization, as Charleston’s defensive coach tandem. Chapman spent last year in the same role with Triple-A Scranton. Moving him from Triple-A to Low-A and adding a second defensive suggests the Yankees want them working with specific prospects. Two defensive coaches is unusual.

Short Season Staten Island Yankees

Manager: David Adams
Pitching Coach: Travis Phelps
Hitting Coach: Ken Joyce
Defensive Coach: Tyson Blaser
Athletic Trainer: Jon Becker
Strength & Conditioning Coach: Daniel Smith
Video Manager: Paul Henshaw

Former Yankees prospect David Adams is moving up the minor league managerial ladder. He retired as a player a few years ago and this will be his third season back with the organization. Two years ago he served as a defensive coach in the Rookie Gulf Coast League and last year he managed one of the two GCL affiliates. Now Adams is moving up to Staten Island.

“I am truly honored and grateful for being chosen to manage the 2019 Staten Island Yankees alongside a knowledgeable and caring staff, both in the front office and on the field,” said Adams in a statement. “… Being in Staten Island presents us with the unique opportunity of impacting young players in our organization as well as newly drafted players in June, a duty we do not take lightly. Instilling our Yankee core values so close to Yankee Stadium, where many of these players hope to play one day, is a special privilege. My family and I are super excited for the challenge and cannot wait for June to roll around.”

Adams, 31, was the Yankees’ third round pick in 2008 and he developed into a solid prospect. His only stint in the big leagues came with the Yankees in 2013. He suited up in 43 games (!) somehow. Can’t say I remember it being that many. Anyway, Phelps, Joyce, Blaser, Becker, and Smith are all returning to Staten Island. This will be year four for Phelps with the club, year three for Becker and Smith, and year two for Joyce and Blaser.

Rookie Pulaski Yankees

Manager: Luis Dorante
Pitching Coach: Gerardo Casadiego
Hitting Coach: Scot Seabol
Defensive Coach: Teuris Olivares
Athletic Trainer: Manny Ozoa
Strength & Conditioning Coach: Larry Adegoke
Video Manager: TBD

Dorante is on the move again. This will be his eighth season in the organization and in the previous seven he served as Double-A Trenton’s pitching coach (2012-13), Low-A Charleston’s manager (2014-16), Rookie Pulaski’s manager (2017), and Double-A Trenton’s bullpen coach (2018). This will be Casadiego’s third straight season as Pulaski’s pitching coach. He spent the three previous years coaching in the Dominican Summer League. Olivares is back for his second season with Pulaski and ninth season in the organization. He’s mostly coached in the DSL.

This will be Seabol’s third year coaching in the system and second as Pulaski’s hitting coach. He held the same role with Low-A Charleston last year. There is where the annual “Seabol played one game with the 2001 Yankees and became the lowest drafted player to reach the big leagues in MLB history” reminder goes. Seabol was picked in the 88th round (1,718th overall) in 1996. Travis Phelps, Staten Island’s pitching coach, made his MLB debut with the (Devil) Rays eleven days after Seabol. Phelps was drafted three picks after Seabol and is currently the lowest drafted big leaguer in history.

Rookie Gulf Coast League Yankees East

Manager: Dan Fiorito
Pitching Coach: Gabriel Tatis
Hitting Coach: ???
Defensive Coaches: Rainiero Coa and Antonio Pacheco
Athletic Trainer: Jordan Gosztola
Strength & Conditioning Coach: Ty Hill

Fiorito, a native New Yorker from Yonkers, played four seasons in the farm system as an extremely popular utility player. Everyone loves him. This is his second season in the organization as a coach. He was Low-A Charleston’s defensive coach last year. Now he’s going to try his hand at managing. Pretty neat. Pacheco has been coaching in the Gulf Coast League for a while now. Both Tatis and Coa are coming up from the Dominican Summer League.

Rookie Gulf Coast League Yankees West

Manager: Nick Ortiz
Pitching Coach: Justin Pope
Hitting Coach: Jake Hirst
Defensive Coach: Lino Diaz and Hector Rabago
Athletic Trainer: A.J. Cano
Strength & Conditioning Coach: James Gonzalez

This will be Pope’s tenth season in the system as a coach already. Crazy. Feels like he was closing games out for Double-A Trenton just yesterday. The Yankees originally acquired him from the Cardinals in the (second) Sterling Hitchcock trade back in 2003. Anyway, Pope has spent the last few seasons as pitching coach with Low-A Charleston. Now he’s at the home base in Tampa. Ortiz managed Rookie Pulaski last year and is entering his fourth year in the organization. Diaz and Rabago have been in the system a few years now. Hirst is a new hire.

Other Notables

As mentioned last week, the Yankees hired Dillon Lawson away from the Astros to be their new minor league hitting coordinator. He has extensive college coaching experience in addition to two one-year stints (2016, 2018) with Houston. One of Lawson’s colleagues with the Astros called him the “hitting coach of the future” for the way he uses analytics to develop training methods.

The Yankees also hired pitching coach Desi Druschel away from the University of Iowa along with Migliaccio. Hawkeyes head coach Rick Heller spilled the beans on Twitter last week. Druschel (and presumably Migliaccio since they were on the same staff) is another analytics guy. In fact, not too long ago R.J. Anderson wrote about Druschel and Lawson embracing analytics at the college level to drive their programs to success. Pretty cool stuff.

Migliaccio will be High-A Tampa’s hitting coach. Druschel is not listed as an affiliate pitching coach, which means one of two things. Either he’ll coach in the Rookie Gulf Coast League or the Yankees hired him as a pitching coordinator type. The pitching version of Lawson, basically. I’d bet on that over Druschel being a GCL coach. Anyway, here are some other quick coaching and front office notes I don’t know where else to put:

So long, Eric Duncan. He left the Yankees to join Gary Denbo and the Marlins as their minor league hitting instructor, reports Jordan McPherson. Duncan was a hitting coach in the farm system the last few years. He flamed out as the Yankees’ first round pick in 2003.
Prior to hiring Brodie Van Wagenen, the Mets asked the Yankees’ permission to interview vice president of baseball operations Tim Naehring for their GM job, according to Andy Martino. Naehring politely declined the interview. He’s happy as Brian Cashman’s right-hand man.
The Yankees hired analyst Chris Pang away from the Mets, reports Martino. Pang was one of three (3) full-time analysts the Mets employed under former GM Sandy Alderson. A few weeks ago Marc Carig and Eno Sarris (subs. req’d) reported the Yankees have approximately 20 analysts, the most in baseball.

Update (February 4th at 6:09pm ET): Druschel’s title is Manager of Pitch Development, he told Dargan Southard. It is a newly created position and Drushel told Southard the Yankees weren’t going to hire anyone else for the role. They wanted to bring him into the organization and this is how they did it.

Update (March 4th at 5:30pm ET): The Yankees have two new and notable coaches in the Dominican Summer League, according to Brendan Kuty. First: Edwar Ramirez! The slender changeup specialist has rejoined the Yankees as a pitching coach. He was active as a player in the Dominican Winter League as recently as 2015. I looked forward to pitching prospects coming up from the minors with a Bugs Bunny changeup in five years.

Also, former outfield prospect Carlos Vidal has joined the Yankees as a defensive coach. Matt Eddy says the Yankees released him as a player back in January. Vidal is only 23 and he had what looked like a breakout 2015 season with Rookie Pulaski, hitting .303/.389/.492 (145 wRC+) with nine homers in 60 games, but he never built on it, and injuries took their toll as well. Now he’s giving coaching a shot.

Update (March 7th at 1:30pm ET): I forgot to include this in the last update. Former big league outfielder Julio Borbon announced his retirement on his Instagram feed, and said he has joined the Yankees as a coach. There’s no word on his exact role.