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River Ave. Blues » 2009 Yankees » Page 3

An ode to Opening Day

April 6, 2009 by Benjamin Kabak 52 Comments

Well, beat the drum and hold the phone – the sun came out today!
We’re born again, there’s new grass on the field.

There’s an old saying in baseball. It goes a little something like this: Life begins on Opening Day.

That is a statement 100 percent true. This afternoon at around 4:07 p.m., weather permitting, Jeremy Guthrie will deal the first pitch of the Yankees’ season to Derek Jeter, and that countdown to game 162, to October, to a possible parade begins.

Every year, Opening Day is a special time for me. We spend the winter going over the what if’s. Who’s going to sign where? Who’s going to start? Who’s going to relieve? Who plays center field? Who overpaid? Who underpaid? Who wins the hardware? Who finds himself on the wrong end of a scandal?

It makes for great conversation, but it’s not baseball. For six months now, the Yankees haven’t played a game that counted. They closed out the season last year on Sept. 28, 2008 with a ten-inning loss to the Red Sox. For the first time since I was 11, the Yanks failed to play a game in October, and the team went out with a whimper.

Now we’re perched on the edge of a brand new day. Every one, every team, every pitcher is at 0, and the promise of a new season is fresh in the air. No one is facing an uphill climb to the pennant. No one is facing a firesale, a declining season, a disappointing performance. Everyone is just waiting for it to count again.

For the Yankees and their fans, the start of the season has come to mean expectation. Since Luis Gonzalez’s bloop fell beyond the reach of Derek Jeter on a warm November evening in Arizona seven and a half years ago, the Yanks have had the weight of baseball expectations on them. They’ve spent more money than any team since 2001 and have nothing but one AL pennant to show for it. Every year, they land the Next Big Thing and are picked to win it all. When they fall short, it’s a disappointment.

This year, though, it’s different. The Yanks, all $209 million of them, are underdogs. Sure, they have Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. Sure, they have a multi-billion-dollar ballpark that offers riches for the richest and more money for the Yanks’ coffers. But they’ve been picked by many to finish third in a very competitive division. Before the season starts, the Yanks, used to lofty expectations, are being told not to expect much. That’s okay with me. It’s makes watching the games that more fun this year.

As 4 o’clock rolls around this afternoon, I’ll be wrapping up a class. I’ll head home, flip on the TV, and there will be baseball. There will be the Yanks in their road grays taking on the Orioles. It will be one of 162, and it will be a glorious rebirth of baseball, the game that kills us or elates us on a nightly basis, the game we love. It will be the two finest words in April. It will be Opening Day.

Got a beat-up glove, a homemade bat, and brand-new pair of shoes;
You know I think it’s time to give this game a ride.

Filed Under: News Tagged With: 2009 Yankees, Opening Day

How much it all costs

April 4, 2009 by Benjamin Kabak 34 Comments

We know the new Yankee Stadium has a gaudy price tag, but what about the new-look Yankees? The team had a total payroll of $209,081,577 in 2008 (source) and spent a lot of money to land CC Sabathia. A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira this winter.

Joel Sherman ran the Opening Day numbers yesterday, and they may be a bit surprising. The Yanks’ total payroll clocks in at $207,461,739, a good $1.6 million less than last year. The team still has to decide between Angel Berroa or Ramiro Peña to that list, but either one of them will get just a prorated amount for the time they spend on the big league roster.

Basically, the Yankees managed to break even on the payroll while filling holes and making the team better than it was last year. Salary cap proponents like to bemoan the Yankees’ spending ways, but they are spending wisely. They replaced players they lost dollar for dollar and did so without sacrificing the minor league depth they have. That’s moneyball for you.

After the jump, the full breakdown of salary figures. This will change before the end of the year.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Analysis Tagged With: 2009 Yankees

Finalizing the last roster spot

April 2, 2009 by Benjamin Kabak 56 Comments

And then there were 27 — or 26 because one of those 27 is in Vail, Colorado.

As the Yankees return to the Bronx today for their first workout at what will always be new Yankee Stadium to me, the team has pared its active roster down to 24 with two men in camp still fighting it out. It looks a little something like this right now:

Pitchers
Jonathan Albaladejo
Brian Bruney
A.J. Burnett
Joba Chamberlain
Phil Coke
Damaso Marte
Andy Pettitte
Edwar Ramirez
Mariano Rivera
CC Sabathia
Jose Veras
Chien-Ming Wang

Catchers
Jose Molina
Jorge Posada

Infielders
Robinson Cano
Derek Jeter
Cody Ransom
Alex Rodriguez (DL)
Mark Teixeira

Outfielders
Melky Cabrera
Johnny Damon
Brett Gardner
Hideki Matsui (DH)
Xavier Nady
Nick Swisher

By all accounts, that’s a pretty solid team. The pitching presents an overhauled starting five, and the seven others resemble all of the best parts of one of the AL’s best bullpens. Jorge Posada assumes his rightful place behind the dish. Mark Teixeira makes Jason Giambi seem like a dim memory, and the outfield is younger and far superior in the field than the 2008 Opening Day iteration.

The only question — if one could call it a pressing question — is a debate over the backup infielder. In one corner, Ramiro Peña. The 22-year-old has never played above AA, but he has drawn impressive reviews from scouts for his defensive work at short this spring. He even managed to hit to the tune of .295/.348/.361 in 61 Grapefruit League at bats.

Those aren’t terrible numbers, one might say. I am however far more inclined to believe that his Minor League line — an ugly .258/.316/.319 over four seasons — is far more indicative of his hitting ability than some early March action. Peña is an all-field, no-hit short stop, and the Yanks would start his arbitration clock — if he ever makes that far in the Majors — by bringing him up.

In the other corner is Angel Berroa. He had an excellent offensive spring, hitting .373/.383/.610, but since winning the AL Rookie of the Year in 2003, he has been an utter disaster at the plate. Last year, he made Melky look good by turning in a .230/.304/.310 line with the Dodgers in 256 plate appearances. He also can’t field.

In one sense, this is an easy choice: The Yankees, defensively challenged up the middle, should go with Ramiro Peña. In an ideal world, he would spell Derek Jeter at short late in the game. However, who wants to be the one to tell Jeter he’s getting yanked from a close game over his glove?

Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

Exactly.

If the glove is out of the equation, then perhaps, the Yanks should go with Berroa. Maybe his spring hot hitting can carry over, and he could sub for Cody Ransom for a few days. That however would leave the Yanks hopin’ and prayin’ that no one hits the ball to third base.

In the end, the answer is easy: Just pick one, and the team can’t go wrong.

Whoever makes the team will be on the roster for about six weeks until A-Rod returns from his injury. Unless Cody Ransom is utterly terrible, that player will see little to no action with the April schedule. In all likelihood, Ramiro Peña’s career will be that of a journeyman late-innings defensive replacement, and Angel Berroa’s could end after the Yanks cut him. If this is the biggest problem facing the Yanks right now, count me enthusiastic for the season.

Filed Under: Analysis Tagged With: 2009 Yankees

Open Thread: Sabathia, Yanks dominate SI season preview

April 1, 2009 by Benjamin Kabak 172 Comments

ccsportsillustratedcover

That is a very big picture of a very big man, and today, that image graced newsstands across the country. Sports Illustrated unveiled their 2009 baseball season preview this morning, and it’s very Yankee-centric except when it counts. More on that in a second.

The centerpiece of the issue is a lengthy article, not yet online, about CC Sabathia. In it, S.L. Price talks about how great a fit Sabathia will be for New York. While he may not have been ready for the big stage three years ago, according to Price, after a few years of elite pitching, Sabathia has come to embrace what he can do on the mound.

I had the opportunity to read through a PDF of the profile, and it’s very illuminating. I know I run the risk of sounding like a mouthpiece for SI, but check it out and see for yourself.

The SI issue also contains team profiles of each of the 30 clubs. Mostly, they read as fluff pieces focusing, as the Yanks’ one does, on team chemistry and Nick Swisher’s enthusiasm.

And of course, no SI preview would be complete without some season predictions divorced from reality. SI picks the Yanks, Twins and Angels as the division winners in the AL with the Red Sox as the Wild Card. The Yanks are picked to face — and lose to — the Angels in the ALCS, and the Mets are somehow picked to win the World Series. Yeah, right.

Derek Jeter update
Not to toot our own horn too much, but Joe Girardi confirmed today that Derek Jeter will be in the leadoff spot on Opening Day. Just remember where you heard it first.

The Fine Print
This is your open thread. In a few days, we’ll be able to do Game Threads at 7 p.m. That will be glorious. Play nice.

Filed Under: Open Thread Tagged With: 2009 Yankees, CC Sabathia

Previewing the ’09 season for The Times

March 30, 2009 by Benjamin Kabak 31 Comments

A few weeks ago, Justin Sablich of The New York Times conducting a few e-mail interviews with various Yankee bloggers. Today, he published the piece. So check it out as Cliff Corcoran, Steve Lombardi and I tackle the early questions surrounding the 2009 Yankees. I think Cliff has a point when he wonders about Jim Edmonds’ availability. [Bats Blog]

Filed Under: Asides, Self-Promotion Tagged With: 2009 Yankees

What are the odds?

March 29, 2009 by Benjamin Kabak 30 Comments

As we get closer to the start of the season, Las Vegas is spewing out lines for everything. How many games will Joba win? Which manager will be the first fired? What’s the over/under on Derek Jeter’s batting average?

If betting is your thing — of if you’re just curious to see how the oddsmakers are favoring the Yanks — check out this gem from Mark Feinsand. The betting site Bodog passed on the numbers for the Yanks, and things are looking fairly rosy for the Bombers, at least on paper.

The site pegs the over/under for Yankee victories at 95.5 and gives them 9/2 odds to win the World Series. The Red Sox are right behind them at 11/2, and the Cubs land the third spot at 8/1. I guess no one told them that the Cubs last won the World Series during the waning days of the administration of Theodore Roosevelt.

Interestingly, the Yanks are 2/1 odds to win the AL Championship but just 6/5 odds to win the AL East. The Red Sox are at 5/2 and 6/5 respectively. Bodog is giving 1/2 odds that the wild card will be from the AL East. The defending AL Champs are pegged at 8/1 to repeat, and the Phillies are pegged at 15/1 to take a second title in a row.

As for personal Yankee milestones, they offer up nothing on A-Rod beyond 7/1 odds for the AL MVP. Mark Teixeira seemingly has the best shot in the league with 5/1 odds, and CC Sabathia is your presumptive front runner for Cy Young at an AL-leading 5/2.

Finally, Joe Girardi is third on their managerial hot seat list. Bodog is giving 5/1 odds that Girardi will be the first one fired this year. Only Jim Leyland (Tigers, 2/1) and Ron Washington (Rangers, 3/1) are facing more odds-related scrutiny. I’ll list the rest of the over/unders here, and the full odds list appears after the jump.

Over/Unders
Yankees victories: 95.5
Mark Teixeira home runs: 32.5
Mark Teixeira RBI: 115.5
Derek Jeter batting average: .303
Johnny Damon batting average: .287
CC Sabathia wins: 16.5
A.J. Burnett wins: 14.5
Joba Chamberlain wins: 13.5
Mariano Rivera saves: 37.5

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Whimsy Tagged With: 2009 Yankees

A weaker lineup with Matsui limited

March 19, 2009 by Benjamin Kabak 167 Comments

On June 19, exactly three months from today, the Yankees will not be able to use a Designated Hitter for the first time all season. That day, the team travels down to Miami for a three-game Interleague set with the Florida Marlins, and on that day, Hideki Matsui will finally test his surgically repaired knee.

For months now, Hideki Matsui’s lack of mobility has been an open secret around Yankee Universe. When Matsui went down last season, it was clear that his days in left field were long behind him. If Matsui returns to full health — if he can generate enough power at the plate from two surgically-repaired knees — he’ll do so merely as a DH. According to numerous articles published this week, that’s a-OK with Matsui.

But for the Yankees, it poses a difficult question of depth and lineup construction. Earlier this week, Joe tackled just that issue as he assembled a 1-through-9 that should strike fear into the hearts of any opposing pitcher. While Joe proposed an efficiently-maximized lineup with Jeter in the one hole, Teixeira behind him and Damon batting third, odds are good that Damon will lead off followed by Jeter and Tex.

That part doesn’t matter. It what happens next that I want to tackle. Back-to-back behind A-Rod once he returns will be Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada, both returning from injuries and both limited in their playing time. On days when Jorge catches, Matsui will DH. But what to do on days when Posada doesn’t catch?

According to the optimistic Yanks, Posada will be behind the dish for around 110 games this year. That still leaves Jose Molina and his anemic career OPS+ of 61 with 52 starts. When Molina is in the lineup, he and Brett Gardner or Melky Cabrera will make for a rather tame bottom of the order.

Here is where the Yanks need to rely on Gardner (or Cabrera) to pick up the slack. Here is where the Yankees need to hope that no one else gets injured and that Hideki’s knees can withstand the beating of a season.

In a way, the need to DH Jorge will pay dividends for Matsui. He’ll be able to rest his knees and stay fresher. But if the Yanks lose Matsui at all this year, the team’s DH will be…Cody Ransom? Jose Molina? Shelley Duncan? All of a sudden, the Yanks’ great lineup, while still very good at the top, looks quite weak the bottom.

In a roundabout way, then, the Yanks’ bench looks to be an Achilles Heal. If anyone on the bench is asked to contribute in a meaningful way, the Yanks won’t have much to offer. Hopefully, this reality won’t come to pass, but with Matsui’s inheriting the DH spot in the news, this depth — combined with an old Yankee team — is something to consider as Opening Day nears.

Updated (10:56 p.m.): As many commenters have noted, I omitted a discussion of the Xavier Nady/Nick Swisher platoon from this piece. That was a grave oversight on my part. Clearly, if Matsui were to go down, the odd man out of that combo will slot in as the DH. Still, I’m not sold on that idea.

Nady had a good month and a bad month in New York last year, and his career numbers pale in comparison to Hideki Matsui’s. I feel far more comfortable with Swisher who had a bad year last year but has seen his OPS+ over 120 the two years prior. Of course, their presence adds a lot of depth to the Yanks, but that doesn’t solve the Jose Molina problem.

Filed Under: Analysis Tagged With: 2009 Yankees

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