Yesterday afternoon, with an assist from The Artist Formerly Known as “The” Steve, I explored the Yanks’ improved pitching depth heading into the 2009 season. Today, we move onto Steve’s questions about the lineup and bullpen. The quotes are his; the commentary is mine.

On Jorge Posada: “How does the shoulder hold up? What does another season of Jose Molina starting do to our offense?”

This is of course the $64,000 question surrounding the Yankee lineup this year. Already this Spring, we’ve suffered through a scare over Posada’s shoulder. The Yanks and Jorge insisted that the injury meant nothing, and Posada has been hitting this week. But that fear of a recurrence will linger well into the summer.

Over the winter, we covered this topic in a variety of posts. In wrapping up the season, I conclude that Jorge’s injury by itself led to the Yanks’ missing the playoffs. Joe raised some concerns about the Yanks’ potential back ups. In a nutshell, those analyses still stand. The rest of the Yanks who can hit will have to overcompensate for Jorge, and the team would have the equivalent of a pitcher hitting in the catcher spot if Posada can’t catch or misses significant time.

Right now, Ivan Rodriguez remains a free agent, and a few teams have some near Major League-ready catching prospects. Landing one of those coveted pieces will cost a king’s ransom, and the potential for Jorge’s shoulder to flare up again is something against which the Yanks haven’t really addressed.

On Brett Gardner/Melky Cabrera: “The league has already figured out Melky and may very well adjust back to Gardner’s effective late season adjustments. If Gardner is starting and hitting .220 in June, then what?”

This morning, Joe IMed me as I was heading out the door. “I wonder if there’s a chance, any chance, that this Manny-Dodgers fallout leads Manny to the Bronx,” he said. I countered with a one-year, $15 million that the Yanks could conceivably offer. I don’t see Manny signing for such little money though even if Ron Gardenhire envisions him in the Bronx.

But as long as Manny remains unsigned, Scott Boras has to be rooting for Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera to flame out. Manny’s availability always means the Yanks could shift Johnny Damon into center and sign Ramirez for the other outfield spot. It would create a terrible defensive outfield and one of the best lineups of all time. In reality, however, the Yanks are probably not heading down that path. If Melky and Brett can’t cut it, the Yanks could try shoving NIck Swisher, against his wishes, into center or the team will end up repeating 2008 when their center fielders hit a combined .261/.320/.391.

On Mariano Rivera: “Coming off a great season, but he is 39 and can’t keep it up forever.” I’d also add that he’s coming off of surgery as well.

Aren’t Yankee fans in denial about reality when it comes to Mariano Rivera? Every year, he gets a little older, but the only way that shows up is in his face (and lack of hair). I don’t like to and can’t imagine a scenario in which Mariano doesn’t throw in 60-70 games this year while notching 30-45 saves. One day though, it will happen. When it does, I don’t envy the person tabbed to Mariano’s heir apparent. It’s no small task to replace the greatest ever.

We spend a lot of time here at RAB being optimistic. In fact, as the 8.2 weighted average (as of 1 p.m.) from the team confidence poll suggest, we’re not alone in our rosy outlook for 2009.

But we can’t put the Yankee blinders on and assume that everything will go according to plan for the 2009 season. To that end, The Artist Formerly Know as “The” Steve wrote in with a question for me this morning:

The Yanks are not without question marks as they enter the 2009 campaign. What’s our worst case scenario? And more importantly, how are the Yanks prepared to deal with it?

So let’s put on our doom-and-gloom hats while we tackle Steve’s concerns. Mo willing, that worst-case scenario won’t come to pass, but we can’t ignore the obvious concerns. Today, we’ll tackle the pitchers.

First up is the big name and latest Yankee ace CC Sabathi. Asks Steve, “Will the innings load from last year affect him this year?” Josh Kalk at The Hardball Times tackled just this very question in September and concluded that Sabathia, so far, has been a horse. We don’t know how Sabathia will respond following two seasons and over 500 innings, but the Yanks will attempt to keep his innings down. Experts seem to agree that his easy, repetitive motion shouldn’t expose him to a greater-than-normal injury risk for a pitcher in his late 20s.

If Sabathia goes down, the Yanks will have to bump everyone up a slot while turning to a rookie. To that end, Steve’s next three questions are all related.

• On A.J. Burnett, coming off of a career-high 221.1 innings: “If/when he misses a month or two due to a minor injury, what can we reasonably expect from Hughes/Aceves/IPK?”
• On Andy Pettitte: “Is he starting to break down with age and no longer able to effectively hold up through an entire season? At 36 and never a hard thrower, what does he have left?”
• On Joba Chamberlain: “[He] has never pitched more than 120 innings at any point in his career, and some analysts like BA’s Bill Callis have always felt he won’t hold up to a full season.”

Remember too that Chien-Ming Wang is coming off of a serious injury as well.

That said, every team faces health questions about pitchers; it’s just the nature of the beast. I believe, though, that the Yanks could weather the storm of losing one pitcher. Right now, Burnett is slotted third in the rotation and Pettitte fourth. Clearly, the Yanks would rather not lose either, but to lose one would probably not crush the team’s playoff hopes. Here, the Yanks would have deploy their depth and turn to Phil Hughes, Al Aceves or Ian Kennedy probably in that order.

For Hughes, it’s really a matter of which pitcher shows up. In September and October in his career, he is 3-0 with a 2.59 ERA in 41.2 innings. He has struck out 28 and walked 12. In 65 MLB innings in other moths, Hughes has good strike out numbers but a 6.78 ERA and is 2-7. If Hughes has to fill in, the Yanks need the late-season Hughes to show up.

Kennedy, meanwhile, is one of the more polarizing figures in the Yanks’ system right now, as the comments to Joe’s IPK post show. Many fans don’t want to see Kennedy again because of some media-constructed story about his supposedly bad attitude; others are rightfully willing to him the benefit of the doubt. After his 2008 effort in the Bronx though, he’s third on the Minor League depth chart.

Al Aceves would fill in if Hughes can’t. The Mexican Gangster threw 30 decent innings last year, but his 16:10 K:BB ratio doesn’t scream future success. He does a good job of keeping the ball low though and limited the number of opposing baserunners.

Because all three are young and have limited MLB epxerience, it’s hard to project how they’ll do. Rather, with Burnett and Pettitte on board, the Yankees have the depth in the minors to weather the storm of a pitching injury. Last year, the Yanks were counting on Hughes and Kennedy to be effective Major Leaguers from Opening Day. This year, they’re the reserved, developing further at AAA until they are summoned. If a member of the starting five goes down, someone or a few someone’s should be able to piece together a league-average effort, and with this team’s offense, that’s all they need.

Of course, the Yankees, because of Joba, are going to need better than league-average performance from some pitchers not in their starting five. To that end, Hughes or Kennedy or Aceves will have to step in at some point (unless Mike Mussina is in shape and can be coaxed back). But the Yanks have a fallback plan for Joba too. He is adept at getting outs out of the bullpen. If he fails as a starting pitcher, the Yanks will slot him in as the heir-apparent to Mariano Rivera. While the B-Jobbers would be happy with that move, the Yanks are going to run Joba out there every five days or so until they know beyond a shadow of a doubt that he can’t do it. That’s a future we don’t have to contemplate yet.

As with any team, the Yankees are not without their question marks. By bolstering their big league staff, though, the Yanks have ensured themselves the potential to exploit their depth should the need arise. Tomorrow, we’ll tackle the questions surrounding the lineup and the bullpen, but the 2009 injury scenarios are much less dire than they were a year ago.